Colts select QB Anthony Richardson Florida (merge)

[Two_pound]

The whole purpose of my post was to highlight his incredible improvement from the first six games of the season through games 7-12. I think it is like night and day. So my hypothesis was if he continues to show that kind of accelerated improvement here with the Colts we will have plenty to cheer about very quickly. Another point of the Vandy game was the Florida defense did not play very well. Kind of head scratching how Florida lost that game, I don't think the loss was on Richardson at all. Did you notice there were a lot of runs up the gut instead of getting Richardson in space with run pass options? Stichen has a lot to work with with Richardson, hopefully this collaboration will be wildly successful. Go Colts!

[compuls1v3]

6 hours ago, shasta519 said:

 

Unbelievable...because it sort of is. 

 

In that Vandy game, there were a few egregious drops, but also plenty of overthrown passes, fastballs, passes thrown behind WRs, etc.

 

Just look at the last drive alone:

 

1st play - waited too long and pass is deflected (likely heading into triple coverage for an INT anyways)

2nd play - 99 MPH fastball to his RB who is less than 10 yards away (a drop AND a bad throw)

Second to last play - Throws it way behind the WR who has to dive to catch it (should have ended the game)

Last play - AR throws a deep pass into the stands and the game is over

 

This was the second to last game of the season....against a really bad college defense who mostly gave AR all day to throw. And somehow, against this opponent, UF was down 28-12 in the 4Q. And then were only able to get some things going in the 4Q, while Vandy was mostly playing soft defense.

 

Look, I am not a scout by any means, and this is JMO. But I don't know how any objective person could watch this Vandy tape and not see a guy, who has tremendous upside, but is still a huge work in progress. 

 

And the following next week, he competed 33% of his passes against FSU...his final game of the season.

 

Here's the tape if anyone wants to watch:

 

 

 

He obviously needs some work, but there were an even number of good plays, like that dropped TD.

[Superman]

4 hours ago, shasta519 said:

I also think this is a bit of a dangerous narrative as well because it could create high expectations for this coming season without much reason to support it. But that will just have to play out.

 

 

Okay so if you had to predict the likelihood that Richardson reaches top 10-12 status for NFL QBs within the next four years, what percentage chance are you giving him? 

 

I ask because you're persistent with the somber outlook for him. I say that as a person who has been very upfront about how big of a climb I think he has, and you seem even more concerned than I've ever been about his prospects.

[2006Coltsbestever]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Okay so if you had to predict the likelihood that Richardson reaches top 10-12 status for NFL QBs within the next four years, what percentage chance are you giving him? 

 

I ask because you're persistent with the somber outlook for him. I say that as a person who has been very upfront about how big of a climb I think he has, and you seem even more concerned than I've ever been about his prospects.

Not to butt in but I will, I think by year 3 that Richardson will be a top 10 QB in the league, like 8-10 assuming he is 100% healthy. His ceiling is just way too high for him not to be at least good. JMO.

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Not to butt in but I will, I think by year 3 that Richardson will be a top 10 QB in the league, like 8-10 assuming he is 100% healthy. His ceiling is just way too high for him not to be at least good. JMO.

 

Yeah that's because you're hopelessly optimistic. What was your win/loss prediction for 2022 again?? 

 

[throwing BBZ]

9 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Not to butt in but I will, I think by year 3 that Richardson will be a top 10 QB in the league, like 8-10 assuming he is 100% healthy. His ceiling is just way too high for him not to be at least good. JMO.

 

 I agree, and add my belief that the QB position looks like that in 3 years it will take a heck Uva player to Crack top ten.

[Two_pound]

By year 3 I'm hoping we are competing with Mahomes, Burrow, and the like. And I think that is very, very, possible, look at Jalen Hurts(who knows, the Eagles might go 7-10 this year and miss the playoffs). Richardson, at least has a chance to be great, it probably won't happen over night, but here's to optimism!!! Go Colts

[Stephen]

4 hours ago, Two_pound said:

The whole purpose of my post was to highlight his incredible improvement from the first six games of the season through games 7-12. I think it is like night and day. So my hypothesis was if he continues to show that kind of accelerated improvement here with the Colts we will have plenty to cheer about very quickly. Another point of the Vandy game was the Florida defense did not play very well. Kind of head scratching how Florida lost that game, I don't think the loss was on Richardson at all. Did you notice there were a lot of runs up the gut instead of getting Richardson in space with run pass options? Stichen has a lot to work with with Richardson, hopefully this collaboration will be wildly successful. Go Colts!

I think he will be better than caleb williams if he reaches upside

[throwing BBZ]

3 hours ago, Two_pound said:

By year 3 I'm hoping we are competing with Mahomes, Burrow, and the like. And I think that is very, very, possible, look at Jalen Hurts(who knows, the Eagles might go 7-10 this year and miss the playoffs). Richardson, at least has a chance to be great, it probably won't happen over night, but here's to optimism!!! Go Colts

 

 IMO Steichen is capable of playing FB Chess on a three tiered board. He and Jim Bob will be building something special over the next couple season, and BEYOND!

 Richardson will in time play at a high enough level to beat the best. But will we have the team?

[compuls1v3]

On 5/5/2023 at 3:53 AM, krunk said:

Yes! If you watched Peyton he worked on his mechanics ad nauseum. From the steps he took, to his head placement, to how he opened up after the snap, to how he gave his body up to take certain hits. His feet were always shuffling while he waited for a throw to open. There's even more! Thats the stuff that made him so deadly and precise. AR accuracy will improve if he puts that same emphasis on his like Peyton did.

 

Stats are great but i think the stuff that you do with your body parts before the throw is what determines its accuracy more than anything else. Personally i dont see how someone could not improve throwing short if they put the right work into it. I dont have much worry about him being able to do so. If you watch AR at the Manning Passing Academy he sat there quiet as a church mouse anytime Peyton opened his mouth. I think hes very open to improving which is great. Indy is a great place for this kid when it comes to the QB position.

When was AR at the Manning Passing Academy (pre or post Colts)?

[stitches]

5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Okay so if you had to predict the likelihood that Richardson reaches top 10-12 status for NFL QBs within the next four years, what percentage chance are you giving him? 

 

I ask because you're persistent with the somber outlook for him. I say that as a person who has been very upfront about how big of a climb I think he has, and you seem even more concerned than I've ever been about his prospects.

~40%... This should be on the high end, but I've been one of his biggest proponents so... The thing is... IMO if he's top 10 he won't be just top 10... he will be up there among the best of the best... top 3-5. 

[stitches]

1 hour ago, compuls1v3 said:

When was AR at the Manning Passing Academy (pre or post Colts)?

Pre, I think it was last summer. Here's video:

 

 

 

[krunk]

8 hours ago, compuls1v3 said:

When was AR at the Manning Passing Academy (pre or post Colts)?pre

pre

[krunk]

8 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 IMO Steichen is capable of playing FB Chess on a three tiered board. He and Jim Bob will be building something special over the next couple season, and BEYOND!

 Richardson will in time play at a high enough level to beat the best. But will we have the team?

Ever notice that Cooter hasn't ever tried to be a head coach? At least as far as I can remember. If he's good here I'm hoping he's like Tom Moore and sticks around for a while bc he doesn't desire to be a HC.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

51 minutes ago, krunk said:

Ever notice that Cooter hasn't ever tried to be a head coach? At least as far as I can remember. If he's good here I'm hoping he's like Tom Moore and sticks around for a while bc he doesn't desire to be a HC.

He is 37 years old. Still very young. Teams have to come calling you don’t just try and be a HC.

[stitches]

One more article by Zach Hicks on empty personnel sets that the Colts might use with Anthony Richardson:

 

 

 

[krunk]

1 hour ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

He is 37 years old. Still very young. Teams have to come calling you don’t just try and be a HC.

Doesn't take long at all if you've been on a good offensive team. He's been around the league for a little bit of time now. Not a dinosaur by any means, but I'd have to think there's been some offers.  He's worked under some good QBs and schemes. It took Sirriani like a season or two here before teams started coming with the HC offers.  I just wonder what Cooters level of interest in becoming a head coach really is. I don't quite believe the opportunity hasn't been there.

[krunk]

1 hour ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

He is 37 years old. Still very young. Teams have to come calling you don’t just try and be a HC.

I see now that his overall experience as a OC really was only 2 years in Detroit. Everything else he's done has been in lesser roles.

[shasta519]

16 hours ago, Two_pound said:

The whole purpose of my post was to highlight his incredible improvement from the first six games of the season through games 7-12. I think it is like night and day. So my hypothesis was if he continues to show that kind of accelerated improvement here with the Colts we will have plenty to cheer about very quickly. Another point of the Vandy game was the Florida defense did not play very well. Kind of head scratching how Florida lost that game, I don't think the loss was on Richardson at all. Did you notice there were a lot of runs up the gut instead of getting Richardson in space with run pass options? Stichen has a lot to work with with Richardson, hopefully this collaboration will be wildly successful. Go Colts!

 

I don't put the loss on AR. Wins are a team stat. But I would put it more on the offense and STs. The defense actually kept them in that game in the 2H. They did give up a TD on the first 2H drive. But the next TD was off an INT and a short field. And then they shut it down for 4 straight drives, only allowing a FG because UF went for it on 4D way backed up in their zone. 

 

I know what the purpose of your post was. And it's a narrative I have heard all over the place. I am just saying I don't know if I buy it. But mostly, it's the other narrative about he's actually really far along and not a project that I most disagree with. 

 

 

[Superman]

3 hours ago, krunk said:

Ever notice that Cooter hasn't ever tried to be a head coach? At least as far as I can remember. If he's good here I'm hoping he's like Tom Moore and sticks around for a while bc he doesn't desire to be a HC.

 

For as long as he's been around, he's still kind of young. I also think he got fired a couple times, so he's had some stops and starts.

[2006Coltsbestever]

15 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah that's because you're hopelessly optimistic. What was your win/loss prediction for 2022 again?? 

 

I had us 11-6 but many in here had us winning 10 or 11, and when we had our poll around 90% of people had us winning the AFC South. Yeah I was way off on that prediction and have admitted it but in recent years I have also been right a lot. For example when we signed Rivers in 2020 I said we would go 11-5 and be good and several in here hated the signing and were calling Rivers a noodle arm. I was 100% right with that prediction. 

 

Regarding AR, he has the tools to crack the top 10 in 2 or 3 years. Regarding his rookie season, he may every well struggle and may not even start until several games are played. Nobody knows yet. 

[shasta519]

20 hours ago, compuls1v3 said:

He obviously needs some work, but there were an even number of good plays, like that dropped TD.

 

Oh definitely. AR can make plays and drop some nice throws. I just think some of what you see on tape is a bit alarming, especially for a QB who went top 5 and will likely start right away. Personally, I think his short passing will need an overhaul.

 

This might be a bad comp, but it sort of reminds me of fielding a groundball at pitcher...and then trying to accurately soft toss it to 1B. It's difficult to do when your mechanics are built to throw it hard. And instead of doing it once or twice, you have to do it 21-22x per game without sailing over the 1B or throwing it in the dirt. 

[stitches]

Here's an interesting one that I recommend people read and watch the accompanying video - former Ravens OC Greg Roman talks about variety of things that might be of interest for Colts fans - from some of his experiences with Andrew Luck in college to development of dual threat QBs in the league, to some breakdown of Anthony Richardson specifically:

 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/analysis/not-so-random-thoughts-on-anthony-richardson-qb-play/

 

 

[Stoney]

17 hours ago, stitches said:

Pre, I think it was last summer. Here's video:

 

 

 

Dude overthrew someone 70 yards away lollll he really is an alien

[Superman]

On 5/22/2023 at 9:53 PM, stitches said:

~40%... This should be on the high end, but I've been one of his biggest proponents so... The thing is... IMO if he's top 10 he won't be just top 10... he will be up there among the best of the best... top 3-5. 

 

I think 40% is aggressive, just based on how little we've seen so far and how far away he is. But I agree, he's a boom or bust type prospect.

[stitches]

36 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think 40% is aggressive, just based on how little we've seen so far and how far away he is. But I agree, he's a boom or bust type prospect.

I know... but I don't think we've ever seen a highly ranked prospect of that type of athleticism completely fail. I guess... Vince Young was one kinda... that failed... but even he wasn't close to the athlete Richardson is. 

 

Pretty much the only QBs in the realm of Richardson athletically have been Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, Daunte Culpepper, Luck? I was looking at people like Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert, because they are often given as examples of highly athletic QBs, but their athleticism is not in the same tier IMO. 

 

So of those above... who's got the worst career/2-3 year peak? I guess... Vick? And even he's like 4 times pro bowler, etc. 

 

What do you think is the chance by the end of his rookie deal he's a top 10-12 QB? 

 

BTW I just listened to The Athletic's football show(podcast) with Nate Tice and Andy Staples and they had a QB draft. Can you guess how high Richardson was drafted? 

 

[Superman]

12 minutes ago, stitches said:

I know... but I don't think we've ever seen a highly ranked prospect of that type of athleticism completely fail. I guess... Vince Young was one kinda... that failed... but even he wasn't close to the athlete Richardson is. 

 

Pretty much the only QBs in the realm of Richardson athletically have been Michael Vick, Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson, Daunte Culpepper, Luck? I was looking at people like Jake Locker or Blaine Gabbert, because they are often given as examples of highly athletic QBs, but their athleticism is not in the same tier IMO. 

 

So of those above... who's got the worst career/2-3 year peak? I guess... Vick? And even he's like 4 times pro bowler, etc. 

 

I'd include Trey Lance, he didn't work out but he's a very good athlete. His career has been marred by injuries so far, but with how little he played in college and how raw he was, it's an interesting comp.

 

There's probably also a survivorship bias here. I bet there are some athletic QB prospects that don't readily come to mind because they flamed out so fast.

 

I feel good about Richardson because I believe Steichen's plan for him will be well considered and executed, but he's a very high variance prospect.

[stitches]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

I'd include Trey Lance, he didn't work out but he's a very good athlete. His career has been marred by injuries so far, but with how little he played in college and how raw he was, it's an interesting comp.

 

There's probably also a survivorship bias here. I bet there are some athletic QB prospects that don't readily come to mind because they flamed out so fast.

 

I feel good about Richardson because I believe Steichen's plan for him will be well considered and executed, but he's a very high variance prospect.

Good call on Lance. If he tested, he probably would have tested very well. Fields might be another one. I was looking at the mockdraftable comps to get some less known/possibly failed and forgotten QBs, but none seemed quite at the level of athleticism of RIchardson. The top 5 athletic comps for Richardson were Culpepper, Newton, Luck , Herbert and Gabbert.... but Herbert and Gabbert are already in another lower level of athleticism IMO. You can argue even Luck is a bit of a stretch to be included in that group... Robert Griffin shows up in the top 10 comps too... though he was smaller. He had very promising rookie year but then his career was ruined by injuries... 

 

I guess... looking through all those... Griffin, Lance... Newton to some degree... maybe my biggest worry is not that he won't be good... my biggest worry should probably be injuries...

 

So if you had to put a number on it? What chance do you give it that Richardson is top 10-12 QB by the end of his rookie deal? 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

Good call on Lance. If he tested, he probably would have tested very well. Fields might be another one. I was looking at the mockdraftable comps to get some less known/possibly failed and forgotten QBs, but none seemed quite at the level of athleticism of RIchardson. The top 5 athletic comps for Richardson were Culpepper, Newton, Luck , Herbert and Gabbert.... but Herbert and Gabbert are already in another lower level of athleticism IMO. You can argue even Luck is a bit of a stretch to be included in that group... Robert Griffin shows up in the top 10 comps too... though he was smaller. He had very promising rookie year but then his career was ruined by injuries... 

 

I guess... looking through all those... Griffin, Lance... Newton to some degree... maybe my biggest worry is not that he won't be good... my biggest worry should probably be injuries...

 

So if you had to put a number on it? What chance do you give it that Richardson is top 10-12 QB by the end of his rookie deal? 

 

To the bolded, no one will be, right? He's alone at the top of the mountain, in terms of overall athleticism. And I agree, Luck doesn't belong in the conversation. Culpepper tested better than I remembered. I'd say Culpepper, Newton, Griffin, Vick, Jackson, and I'd add Josh Allen as well (his numbers are quite there, but the way he used his legs right away in the NFL makes him a legit comp, IMO). 

 

And yeah, injuries is a major factor to consider. When your QB exposes himself in the running game, it increases the risk of getting hurt. And even if there isn't a severe injury, smaller injuries tend to add up and cause problems over time.

 

I think I'd say 20% for Richardson right now. We haven't seen anything yet, so I'm basing this off of what he looked like in college. I'm fine with moving this way up pretty quickly, but first I want to see what he's doing with his fundamentals, and how it looks on the practice field. Then I want to see how the staff intends to use him this year, and what it looks like -- is he starting, if he's not starting are they working him in, can he handle the speed of the NFL, does he look overwhelmed in any way, etc. 

 

Edit: Meant to add Fields to that list of comps. And that speaks to how the coaches use Richardson, and how he looks. The Bears plan for Fields hasn't been great, IMO.

[stitches]

 

 

[Patrick Miller]

I wonder if AR is the type of qb that can unlock playmaking ability in his supporting cast. Maybe we’ll see an even better Pittman……Pierce…..Cox even? Can AR make his teammates better like Peyton used to do back in the day?

[NewColtsFan]

On 5/24/2023 at 10:06 AM, stitches said:

Good call on Lance. If he tested, he probably would have tested very well. Fields might be another one. I was looking at the mockdraftable comps to get some less known/possibly failed and forgotten QBs, but none seemed quite at the level of athleticism of RIchardson. The top 5 athletic comps for Richardson were Culpepper, Newton, Luck , Herbert and Gabbert.... but Herbert and Gabbert are already in another lower level of athleticism IMO. You can argue even Luck is a bit of a stretch to be included in that group... Robert Griffin shows up in the top 10 comps too... though he was smaller. He had very promising rookie year but then his career was ruined by injuries... 

 

I guess... looking through all those... Griffin, Lance... Newton to some degree... maybe my biggest worry is not that he won't be good... my biggest worry should probably be injuries...

 

So if you had to put a number on it? What chance do you give it that Richardson is top 10-12 QB by the end of his rookie deal? 

Richardson, a top-10/12 QB by the end of his rookie deal?    That’s an interesting question.    4 years or 5? 
 

I’d say at least 50/50 and maybe better.   Perhaps much better.   But if he’s not, he shouldn’t be too far off.   I’d love to give better odds but there are no real good historical comps.   He’s in a league of his own.   But by year 4 or 5 the Colts should have surrounded him with more talent and the young talent should have matured and perhaps also re-tooled the O-line as well.   Given health,  he should be a real force by then.   It looks like he’s going to get very good coaching, so AR needs health and lots and lots of experience to be the best he can be. 

I think we’ll all have a much better answer to your question by the end of the season. 

[stitches]

32 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Richardson, a top-10/12 QB by the end of his rookie deal?    That’s an interesting question.    4 years or 5? 
 

I’d say at least 50/50 and maybe better.   Perhaps much better.   But if he’s not, he shouldn’t be too far off.   I’d love to give better odds but there are no real good historical comps.   He’s in a league of his own.   But by year 4 or 5 the Colts should have surrounded him with more talent and the young talent should have matured and perhaps also re-tooled the O-line as well.   Given health,  he should be a real force by then.   It looks like he’s going to get very good coaching, so AR needs health and lots and lots of experience to be the best he can be. 

I think we’ll all have a much better answer to your question by the end of the season. 

You might be even more optimistic than me.  

[stitches]

 

[richard pallo]

7 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

I would guess he just learned his agent has finalized his contract.

[cjwhiskers]

3 hours ago, Patrick Miller said:

I wonder if AR is the type of qb that can unlock playmaking ability in his supporting cast. Maybe we’ll see an even better Pittman……Pierce…..Cox even? Can AR make his teammates better like Peyton used to do back in the day?

I think this can definitely be the case, just in a different way then Peyton did it. 
 

Peyton knew everyone’s role as good or better than they did. He held the team to an expectation and forced them into spots/windows. Very cerebral and knew what he wanted. 
 

AR, at least initially I think will help the team take advantage of off script and creativity. Allowing players to work zones and run routes that we haven’t seen since Luck. We have so many tall receivers that I think they honestly have a chance to shine with ARs strong arm. This young team will feed off the flashiness of some of the stuff we’re about to see this season. I expect an energy to this team we haven’t seen in awhile. 
 

 

[#12.]

4 hours ago, Patrick Miller said:

I wonder if AR is the type of qb that can unlock playmaking ability in his supporting cast. Maybe we’ll see an even better Pittman……Pierce…..Cox even? Can AR make his teammates better like Peyton used to do back in the day?

 

I don't know how much it will ever have in common with the Manning era.  If it works, it will be something new.

 

Physically, and even somewhat aesthetically with the way he moves, Richardson reminds me of an athlete from a different sport, Rafael Nadal.  When you first saw Nadal play, you had never seen a tennis player look or play like Nadal.  With Richardson at QB, it's a similar feeling.  There is no QB who looks like this.

 

Of course if he's 1/10th as successful a QB as Nadal has been a tennis player, you would take it every day of the week.

[BeanDiasucci]

This doesn't really mean anything but shows a contrast to a few of our fans who see Richardson being a top QB in Year One. PFF ranks him dead last among starting QBs ahead of the season https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-2023-nfl-season

[Stephen]

7 hours ago, cjrulli said:

I think this can definitely be the case, just in a different way then Peyton did it. 
 

Peyton knew everyone’s role as good or better than they did. He held the team to an expectation and forced them into spots/windows. Very cerebral and knew what he wanted. 
 

AR, at least initially I think will help the team take advantage of off script and creativity. Allowing players to work zones and run routes that we haven’t seen since Luck. We have so many tall receivers that I think they honestly have a chance to shine with ARs strong arm. This young team will feed off the flashiness of some of the stuff we’re about to see this season. I expect an energy to this team we haven’t seen in awhile. 
 

 

I think all our speed guys will shine, dulin, downs, pierce,granson, mckenzie,woods fit richardson play style.

[Stephen]

39 minutes ago, BeanDiasucci said:

This doesn't really mean anything but shows a contrast to a few of our fans who see Richardson being a top QB in Year One. PFF ranks him dead last among starting QBs ahead of the season https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterback-rankings-all-32-starters-2023-nfl-season

If he starts I bet he is top 10 in deep ball success