Andrew Luck Effect (When is it time to rebuild?)

[Nickster]

This is not really supposed to be a topic to debate Luck himself but the effect his sudden retirement has had on the franchise.  I am interested in what people think the team should do.  Should we rebuild or retool?

 

For me personally, I maintain that a man's got to do what a man's got to do, but Luck screwed the team and franchise and fans.  Those ideas are not mutually exclusive IMO and I don't think it's a stain on Luck's character at all, it's just the reality of the situation.  That has been debated ad nauseum.

 

What I am interested in is the damage that this happenstance has caused to the franchise long term.

 

I think we are still reeling from the effects of his retirement and shouldn't be as much as we are.  It was now quite a while ago, but it seems like we still operate as if we were a true contender, when we've needed to retool for some time.   I enjoyed the Rivers season immensely, but it would have been much better in hindsight to reboot and try to get young at QB.  We keep chasing a ghost IMO.

 

Imagine if Luck would have called it quits the after the 2017 injury season instead of coming back for one year in 2018.  There have been multiple franchise QBs drafted since then, and we would have had a pretty good chance to draft one of them.  Instead, he comes back and plays great in 2018 and is built around before pulling the plug.  Since Andrew's snowboard season when we looked like a dynasty in the making after 2014, we have been one game over 500 and  have won 1 playoff game.  

 

The franchise is 57-56 since our last division title in 2014 with 2 playoff appearances in 7 seasons with one win.  That is pretty dismal.  Since 2015, only DET, MIA, LV, WASH, NYJ, CHI, and NYG have won less playoff games.  That is pretty discouraging, especially considering the relative weakness of our division which has only 8 Total playoff wins since then, and its division champs have averaged only 10 wins per season.  That's the champs average over that time.  Add to that the quality of QBs and teams in the AFC, and it looks bleaker and bleaker to me.  

 

I loved watching Luck play, but the damage that has been done to the club overall since the snowboarding incident and then the sudden retirement have been far reaching and long lasting IMO.

 

To me the problem is one of the owner.  I think he's too emotionally attached to the team to realize when it's time to reset this club.  I think we have been walking on the ridge line of mediocrity and are about to fall into the abyss of being like DET, MIA, LV, WASH, NYJ, CHI, and NYG and JAX and other really bad franchises in the regular season too.

Let's say we get Carr and do improve some.  Then what?  How are we going to fill holes in the positions of need we have which are also the hardest position to fill?

 

I just feel like the way management is doing this thing is as if the club is on the edge of contention and I just don't see it.  That is what I'm calling the Andrew Luck effect.  Fool's Gold in other words. I really really wish we'd take some measures to reboot this thing by not giving much up for another new QB this upcoming season. 

 

Don't know if this is going to spur any discussion or what it will sound like to people, but I was looking at our record and man it's just been bottom tier.  Since the ole boarding incident then the sudden calf retirement.

 

Do you guys think we need to rebuild or retool?  I'm not asking what you think the club is going to do, but what you think we should do.

 

[Four2itus]

11 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I think we are I am still reeling from the effects of his retirement and shouldn't be as much as we are I am.  It was now quite a while ago, but it seems like we I still operate as if we were a true contender, when we've needed to retool for some time. 

I was good with his decision as soon as he made it. 

[Flash7]

23 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Let's say we get Carr and do improve some.  Then what?  How are we going to fill holes in the positions of need we have which are also the hardest position to fill?

I don't know if Carr is in the equation, but I'm not sure why we cannot get Carr and continue to improve?

[Nickster]

8 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

I don't know if Carr is in the equation, but I'm not sure why we cannot get Carr and continue to improve?

Well we'd have to spend 35+ mill of cap and probably 2 1st rounders and  a 2nd or 3rd  minimum.  

[Flash7]

4 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Well we'd have 35+ mill of cap and probably 2 1st rounders and 2nds minimum.  

Yes, it would come at a cost. If you want  a top-notch Qb, it will come at a cost. However, despite the large cost involved, you can still build around the QB. 

 

We would still have cap space remaining and all of our other draft picks. It's doable.

[Nickster]

8 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

Yes, it would come at a cost. If you want  a top-notch Qb, it will come at a cost. However, despite the large cost involved, you can still build around the QB. 

 

We would still have cap space remaining and all of our other draft picks. It's doable.

Well half of the cap space would go to Carr and presumably another 20 of it would go to Q, so I think the cap space thing is a little overblown.

[Nickster]

32 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

I was good with his decision as soon as he made it. 

I'm not not good with it.  Like I said a man' got to do what he's got to do

[Nickster]

51 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

I was good with his decision as soon as he made it. 

I am not emotionally reeling from lucks' retirement.  Not what I am talking about at all.  

 

I used we as a fan of the Colts franchise.  

 

The Colts franchise is still reeling from a competive standpoint.

 

I think you prolly knew that though Fourty.

[Colt.45]

Rebuild. Go in the draft this year for a QB, do same next year if the guy you find this year doesnt work. This team is going to struggle to meet the owner's expectations until that happens. Chris Ballard has sat on the toilet for a while, it's time to p00p.

[Colt.45]

39 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

I was good with his decision as soon as he made it. 

Same here. Respected the decision then, respect it even more now.

 

As a club, you cannot blame your failures on him. We've had opportunities to get a young long term starter every single year since he left. We are were we are today because of strategic decisions made by Ballard. This is not a post blaming CB, i understand his thought process and why he went the route he went. Time to come back full circle. 

 

CB understands today what he didnt understand or accept last year....if you don't have a QB, you're in dire straits. Should you throw your hands up and quit? Well no, you build as best as you can but if your priority isnt finding a young GOOD QB then you don't have a clue what you're doing. 

[Nickster]

9 minutes ago, Colt.45 said:

Same here. Respected the decision then, respect it even more now.

 

As a club, you cannot blame your failures on him. We've had opportunities to get a young long term starter every single year since he left. We are were we are today because of strategic decisions made by Ballard. This is not a post blaming CB, i understand his thought process and why he went the route he went. Time to come back full circle. 

 

CB understands today what he didnt understand or accept last year....if you don't have a QB, you're in dire straits. Should you throw your hands up and quit? Well no, you build as best as you can but if your priority isnt finding a young GOOD QB then you don't have a clue what you're doing. 

 

I agree but there are exceptions, ie. TB with Brady and MS with Rams.  They were ready talentwise to really win with good QB play

whereas I think management has been miscalculating somewhat our competitive potential.

 

I think having Jax and Hou in our division has probably hurt the team by giving us an easier road to respectibility.  We have had pretty soft schedules the last couple seasons outside of the division too. 

 

11 of the clubs 20 wins the last two seasons have come from JAX, Hou, NYJ, CHI, DET, and a Jacoby led MIA.

 

Our opponents strength of schedule was 27 this year and dead last 32 last year. 

 

 

[LiveAndLetAddai]

  As a man. I understand making life changing choices, we all have to put the good before the bad.  Your opinion of how he felt matters not...his only does.  Politely stepping off my soap box.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, Nickster said:

This is not really supposed to be a topic to debate Luck himself but the effect his sudden retirement has had on the franchise.  I am interested in what people think the team should do.  Should we rebuild or retool?

 

For me personally, I maintain that a man's got to do what a man's got to do, but Luck screwed the team and franchise and fans.  Those ideas are not mutually exclusive IMO and I don't think it's a stain on Luck's character at all, it's just the reality of the situation.  That has been debated ad nauseum.

 

What I am interested in is the damage that this happenstance has caused to the franchise long term.

 

I think we are still reeling from the effects of his retirement and shouldn't be as much as we are.  It was now quite a while ago, but it seems like we still operate as if we were a true contender, when we've needed to retool for some time.   I enjoyed the Rivers season immensely, but it would have been much better in hindsight to reboot and try to get young at QB.  We keep chasing a ghost IMO.

 

Imagine if Luck would have called it quits the after the 2017 injury season instead of coming back for one year in 2018.  There have been multiple franchise QBs drafted since then, and we would have had a pretty good chance to draft one of them.  Instead, he comes back and plays great in 2018 and is built around before pulling the plug.  Since Andrew's snowboard season when we looked like a dynasty in the making after 2014, we have been one game over 500 and  have won 1 playoff game.  

 

The franchise is 57-56 since our last division title in 2014 with 2 playoff appearances in 7 seasons with one win.  That is pretty dismal.  Since 2015, only DET, MIA, LV, WASH, NYJ, CHI, and NYG have won less playoff games.  That is pretty discouraging, especially considering the relative weakness of our division which has only 8 Total playoff wins since then, and its division champs have averaged only 10 wins per season.  That's the champs average over that time.  Add to that the quality of QBs and teams in the AFC, and it looks bleaker and bleaker to me.  

 

I loved watching Luck play, but the damage that has been done to the club overall since the snowboarding incident and then the sudden retirement have been far reaching and long lasting IMO.

 

To me the problem is one of the owner.  I think he's too emotionally attached to the team to realize when it's time to reset this club.  I think we have been walking on the ridge line of mediocrity and are about to fall into the abyss of being like DET, MIA, LV, WASH, NYJ, CHI, and NYG and JAX and other really bad franchises in the regular season too.

Let's say we get Carr and do improve some.  Then what?  How are we going to fill holes in the positions of need we have which are also the hardest position to fill?

 

I just feel like the way management is doing this thing is as if the club is on the edge of contention and I just don't see it.  That is what I'm calling the Andrew Luck effect.  Fool's Gold in other words. I really really wish we'd take some measures to reboot this thing by not giving much up for another new QB this upcoming season. 

 

Don't know if this is going to spur any discussion or what it will sound like to people, but I was looking at our record and man it's just been bottom tier.  Since the ole boarding incident then the sudden calf retirement.

 

Do you guys think we need to rebuild or retool?  I'm not asking what you think the club is going to do, but what you think we should do.

 

Wow….   The poster who has been complaining about the roster since the day he arrived is now calling for the Colts to do another rebuild!    Imagine my surprise?!?   
 

Completely predictable…..   

[Les Poulains]

The strength of schedule and weakness of the division are good points. It's hard not to think the roster is extremely overrated. 

 

We should rebuild but I don't think we can. The age profile of our best players doesn't really allow it, it's not like we have an ageing roster. And it's not like we'll let them go, given our philosophy of "paying our guys".

 

"Retooling" to me, means we're not missing much. I don't think that's accurate. If we were confident that trading for someone like Carr could put us over the top, I'd think we just need a retool, but I suspect that isn't true.

[Mackrel829]

1 hour ago, Nickster said:

Well half of the cap space would go to Carr and presumably another 20 of it would go to Q, so I think the cap space thing is a little overblown.

 

20 million in cap isn't going to Q. His cap hit is more likely to go down than up.

[Gigc]

Doesn't sound like the owner wants to rebuild.

so, there's that

[Nickster]

19 minutes ago, Gigc said:

Doesn't sound like the owner wants to rebuild.

so, there's that

Yeah I was more interested in what posters here think.  Jim definitely doesn’t think so.  What do you think ?

[danlhart87]

Start Sam Ehrlinger 

Win SB

Repeat

[coltsfanej]

It’s a tough situation. If we get the QB right whether we sign one of the FA and they hit their upside, or we draft a guy and he hits his ceiling, then we are good to go.  The problem with having premium players at non-premium positions is that with holes at QB, LT, and WR is that everything has to go perfect. Stars at premium positions can help cover some weaknesses easier. Just imagine Wentz playing for the Bengals this year instead of Burrow. They’d be picking too 5 instead of in the SB.  And I don’t mean that as a knock on Carson. It’s just the fact that Burrow was able to produce wins with historically terrible pass protection while Wentz would have thrown 6 left handed INTs….  As always it’ll be a hind sight thing that will be dependent on how the QB performs….  If it were me deciding. I would trade Q and either see if Love is available for a late round pick to see if he can develop or draft a guy if we like one. I would not go all in for Carr. He is a second tier QB. Granted a higher end one than Wentz but still not a top of the league guy. Which we may not need a guy like that but I wouldn’t want to mortgage the future on a guy that’s not. 

[Superman]

"Rebuilding" isn't necessary in the NFL. Just get a QB and build around him.

 

If your team isn't winning -- as in, divisions, and making noise in the playoffs -- it's one of three reasons:
1) You aren't good enough at QB.

2) You haven't drafted/developed well enough.

3) You haven't invested in the right players and/or positions.

 

I'm leaving off injuries and surprise retirements. Stuff happens, depth can make up for injuries, usually time can make up for surprise retirements, and if you're still not recovered after two or three years, see 1-3 above. I'm also leaving off staffing/front office issues. Yeah, if your coaches suck, you're not going to win, but that's not really related to the "rebuild" issue.

 

You don't have to tear down and rebuild to fix any of those issues. You can go get a QB. Even the 2022 Colts, with no first rounder, could put together a package to move up to the top of the draft and select whatever QB we want. It would be costly, but we could do it.

 

Drafting well takes time, and talent, and luck. If it were as easy as just saying 'we're going to do better in the draft, starting now,' then we wouldn't be here. But if you look back over the last 3-4 years and notice you're not getting adequate return, then drafting is part of your problem. 

 

And if you trade resources or spend money for what you expect to be premium players, and they don't give you premium performance/impact, then you have a problem.

 

For most teams -- as is true of the Colts as they sit now -- it's a combination of all three. We're not good enough at QB, and we've officially had enough time to solve this problem, but we swung and missed with Wentz. We have missed on several draft picks over the last 4-5 years, some due to injury, some due to player issues, but it is what it is. And we invested heavily in Wentz and it didn't work, but there are other players for whom we didn't get the expected bang for our buck. It's pretty obvious when we look back at it.

 

But again, it doesn't require a rebuild to solve any of these issues. It takes hitting on the right guys, especially at QB, drafting well over time, and making the right decisions with the supporting cast members. 

[Gigc]

43 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Yeah I was more interested in what posters here think.  Jim definitely doesn’t think so.  What do you think ?

I think two things. First, rebuilding should be a perpetual state, meaning you're always striving to get better.

Second, "rebuilding" can become perpetual losing --- see the Colts in the 20 years from Bert Jones to Peyton Manning --- and that SUCKS.

[SteelCityColt]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

"Rebuilding" isn't necessary in the NFL. Just get a QB and build around him.

 

If your team isn't winning -- as in, divisions, and making noise in the playoffs -- it's one of three reasons:
1) You aren't good enough at QB.

2) You haven't drafted/developed well enough.

3) You haven't invested in the right players and/or positions.

 

I'm leaving off injuries and surprise retirements. Stuff happens, depth can make up for injuries, usually time can make up for surprise retirements, and if you're still not recovered after two or three years, see 1-3 above. I'm also leaving off staffing/front office issues. Yeah, if your coaches suck, you're not going to win, but that's not really related to the "rebuild" issue.

 

You don't have to tear down and rebuild to fix any of those issues. You can go get a QB. Even the 2022 Colts, with no first rounder, could put together a package to move up to the top of the draft and select whatever QB we want. It would be costly, but we could do it.

 

Drafting well takes time, and talent, and luck. If it were as easy as just saying 'we're going to do better in the draft, starting now,' then we wouldn't be here. But if you look back over the last 3-4 years and notice you're not getting adequate return, then drafting is part of your problem. 

 

And if you trade resources or spend money for what you expect to be premium players, and they don't give you premium performance/impact, then you have a problem.

 

For most teams -- as is true of the Colts as they sit now -- it's a combination of all three. We're not good enough at QB, and we've officially had enough time to solve this problem, but we swung and missed with Wentz. We have missed on several draft picks over the last 4-5 years, some due to injury, some due to player issues, but it is what it is. And we invested heavily in Wentz and it didn't work, but there are other players for whom we didn't get the expected bang for our buck. It's pretty obvious when we look back at it.

 

But again, it doesn't require a rebuild to solve any of these issues. It takes hitting on the right guys, especially at QB, drafting well over time, and making the right decisions with the supporting cast members. 

"Stuff happens"  can derail even the best set up and well managed franchise. Listening to an interview with Duke Tobin, and how well they have done to get so much young talent under contract for a few years. In the back of my mind, yes it's great work, but just takes injuries/law troubles/personality issues and you can quickly be behind the 8 ball again.

[Superman]

Just now, SteelCityColt said:

"Stuff happens"  can derail even the best set up and well managed franchise. Listening to an interview with Duke Tobin, and how well they have done to get so much young talent under contract for a few years. In the back of my mind, yes it's great work, but just takes injuries/law troubles/personality issues and you can quickly be behind the 8 ball again.

 

It's funny how a team finally hits gold, and now they're the paragon of excellence. The Bengals have been forgettable forever. They were bad enough to have the #1 pick when Burrow was available. They've actually been a pretty good drafting team for a while, but they've never had cap issues because they've never had a top notch QB. And funny you mentioned law troubles/personality issues, they lost some top talent to that kind of stuff as well, which has saved them cap space. They basically signed Trey Hendrickson and DJ Reader, and now they're cap experts... Funny stuff to me.

 

Not hating on the Bengals, good for them, they're in great shape. But without Burrow, they'd be the same old mediocre red headed step child of the AFC North. Which is saying something because they're in the same division as the awful Browns.

[AwesomeAustin]

I’m not sure if we should rebuild but I would understand if they traded JT, Buckner, Kelly or Q for the resources we needed to get a QB. I don’t want those players gone but without a QB we are doing nothing. 

[Nickster]

38 minutes ago, Superman said:

"Rebuilding" isn't necessary in the NFL. Just get a QB and build around him.

 

If your team isn't winning -- as in, divisions, and making noise in the playoffs -- it's one of three reasons:
1) You aren't good enough at QB.

2) You haven't drafted/developed well enough.

3) You haven't invested in the right players and/or positions.

 

I'm leaving off injuries and surprise retirements. Stuff happens, depth can make up for injuries, usually time can make up for surprise retirements, and if you're still not recovered after two or three years, see 1-3 above. I'm also leaving off staffing/front office issues. Yeah, if your coaches suck, you're not going to win, but that's not really related to the "rebuild" issue.

 

You don't have to tear down and rebuild to fix any of those issues. You can go get a QB. Even the 2022 Colts, with no first rounder, could put together a package to move up to the top of the draft and select whatever QB we want. It would be costly, but we could do it.

 

Drafting well takes time, and talent, and luck. If it were as easy as just saying 'we're going to do better in the draft, starting now,' then we wouldn't be here. But if you look back over the last 3-4 years and notice you're not getting adequate return, then drafting is part of your problem. 

 

And if you trade resources or spend money for what you expect to be premium players, and they don't give you premium performance/impact, then you have a problem.

 

For most teams -- as is true of the Colts as they sit now -- it's a combination of all three. We're not good enough at QB, and we've officially had enough time to solve this problem, but we swung and missed with Wentz. We have missed on several draft picks over the last 4-5 years, some due to injury, some due to player issues, but it is what it is. And we invested heavily in Wentz and it didn't work, but there are other players for whom we didn't get the expected bang for our buck. It's pretty obvious when we look back at it.

 

But again, it doesn't require a rebuild to solve any of these issues. It takes hitting on the right guys, especially at QB, drafting well over time, and making the right decisions with the supporting cast members. 

I’m not that interested in semantics with what rebuild or retool mean.  It’s not interesting to me.

 

How do we get to a QB?

 

 that’s pretty much where I stand on 1, 2, 3.

 

so I guess my question is, how do we get to #1 ? which I’m sure you agree is the best way to get where we need to be.

 

i don’t see a pathway through trade because of 2 or 3.  we will need draft capital to fill the most important positions won’t we?
 

so we could get Lucky with a Brady, Wilson later pick but that is highly unlikely.

 

how do you think we can get to the top of the draft?  Or trade for a stud vet in our current state?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Nickster]

29 minutes ago, AwesomeAustin said:

I’m not sure if we should rebuild but I would understand if they traded JT, Buckner, Kelly or Q for the resources we needed to get a QB. I don’t want those players gone but without a QB we are doing nothing. 

Well that’s what I would call a rebuild in this context.  Going in a totally different direction than we’ve gone in.  Turning over guys the org thought of as core to get a QB and picks for other guys.

[Nickster]

36 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

It's funny how a team finally hits gold, and now they're the paragon of excellence. The Bengals have been forgettable forever. They were bad enough to have the #1 pick when Burrow was available. They've actually been a pretty good drafting team for a while, but they've never had cap issues because they've never had a top notch QB. And funny you mentioned law troubles/personality issues, they lost some top talent to that kind of stuff as well, which has saved them cap space. They basically signed Trey Hendrickson and DJ Reader, and now they're cap experts... Funny stuff to me.

 

Not hating on the Bengals, good for them, they're in great shape. But without Burrow, they'd be the same old mediocre red headed step child of the AFC North. Which is saying something because they're in the same division as the awful Browns.

the Bengals were a lot like us during the marv Lewis years only a little better.     Almost   Good enough or so for many years and just languishing in purgatory without enough at qb to win in playoffs.  It took a new era of sucking to get in position for Burrow and other assets they have now. They were talented.

[Nickster]

19 minutes ago, Superman said:

"Rebuilding" isn't necessary in the NFL. Just get a QB and build around him.

 

If your team isn't winning -- as in, divisions, and making noise in the playoffs -- it's one of three reasons:
1) You aren't good enough at QB.

2) You haven't drafted/developed well enough.

3) You haven't invested in the right players and/or positions.

 

I'm leaving off injuries and surprise retirements. Stuff happens, depth can make up for injuries, usually time can make up for surprise retirements, and if you're still not recovered after two or three years, see 1-3 above. I'm also leaving off staffing/front office issues. Yeah, if your coaches suck, you're not going to win, but that's not really related to the "rebuild" issue.

 

You don't have to tear down and rebuild to fix any of those issues. You can go get a QB. Even the 2022 Colts, with no first rounder, could put together a package to move up to the top of the draft and select whatever QB we want. It would be costly, but we could do it.

 

Drafting well takes time, and talent, and luck. If it were as easy as just saying 'we're going to do better in the draft, starting now,' then we wouldn't be here. But if you look back over the last 3-4 years and notice you're not getting adequate return, then drafting is part of your problem. 

 

And if you trade resources or spend money for what you expect to be premium players, and they don't give you premium performance/impact, then you have a problem.

 

For most teams -- as is true of the Colts as they sit now -- it's a combination of all three. We're not good enough at QB, and we've officially had enough time to solve this problem, but we swung and missed with Wentz. We have missed on several draft picks over the last 4-5 years, some due to injury, some due to player issues, but it is what it is. And we invested heavily in Wentz and it didn't work, but there are other players for whom we didn't get the expected bang for our buck. It's pretty obvious when we look back at it.

 

But again, it doesn't require a rebuild to solve any of these issues. It takes hitting on the right guys, especially at QB, drafting well over time, and making the right decisions with the supporting cast members. 

Well whatever on the terms.  Whatever you want to call it.  
 

I think we’ve seen something different the last couple of years.  If you have a talented enough team, you can rent a guy and win.  Denver did that with Peyton.  His broncs, the bucs, and the Rams were already loaded on both sides of the ball already.  Ready to win big with serious talent in the positions we lack with good QBing.

 

I think the Colts are in a different position than those teams.  They were loaded with WR talent, usually edge rusher talent or Donald , solid pass pro.  We aren’t there IMo.

 

so other than those sorta ready teams, I can’t think of others off the top of my head who did something similar.  
 

Seattle got lucky on Wilson.  Other than that and then NE 20 years ago getting lucky with Brady, generally teams have somehow needed to acquire high picks.  KC moved up with Mahomes with a team good enough  to win big with awesome weapons.  Bengals sucked. 

 

Do you see a pathway for the Colts to do something similar?  What do we have to trade for top picks in the draft realistically?  Future picks when we have so many needs?

 

 

[Superman]

11 minutes ago, Nickster said:

I’m not that interested in semantics with what rebuild or retool mean.  It’s not interesting to me.

 

It's not semantics. You asked a specific question, the answer is no. You're not interested in the answer to your own question?

 

To the rest, I was never too excited about the possibilities of Rodgers or Wilson, I didn't think they were realistic, and I thought they'd be too costly for where our team is, and because of their age. I'm not too excited about Carr because I don't think he's a realistic option, and I don't think he's good enough. I like him, but he's a consolation level player, not a 'move heaven and earth' level player. 

 

In hindsight, I would have been okay with the Stafford deal last year (I wanted Stafford from 2020, but never really thought anyone would give up two firsts for him; I think the Goff situation made it nearly impossible for us to beat the Rams offer). I think we'd be in better shape if we had moved up for Herbert in 2020, even though it probably would mean we don't have Buckner, and probably wouldn't have been able to draft Paye.

 

In 2021, SF gave up three firsts and a third to move up from 12 to 3. I think that's an unprecedented haul, and I doubt that it gets duplicated this year. Maybe SF reset the market, but I think last year was an anomaly. Worst case, on draft night, we could give up 2023-25 firsts to move up to the top ten, or we could include a combo of other picks -- especially ones we're getting from WAS -- and a player in a deal. Like I said, it would be costly, but Ballard said he doesn't view anyone as untouchable. But I don't think there's an "untouchable" level prospect available this year, so I'm not suggesting we do this right now anyway. And next year, we'll have more resources if we want to move up. Right now, it would take someone like Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, coming available for me to be on board with that kind of "untouchable" move. If I'm including Buck or Q, we need to be talking about a high level QB in his mid 20s.

 

Realistically, I think we should sign a mid level guy to a two year deal, and draft our guy in 2023.

[AwesomeAustin]

20 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Well that’s what I would call a rebuild in this context.  Going in a totally different direction than we’ve gone in.  Turning over guys the org thought of as core to get a QB and picks for other guys.

I see what you are saying. I wouldn’t want them to trade all of those guys but would understand if any of them were traded. I’m interested to see if Buckner is a great fit for this defense. I’m sure he will play well bc he is a good football player but if he will be playing out of position then maybe getting a high draft pick would serve this team more. I think Pinter is an option at C but he also could play RG so depends what happens there.
 

I mentioned JT bc I think a contender might give us a 1st and day two pick for him and if that is enough to move up and draft “our guy”, it would be a major price to pay but ultimately worth it. We can get 85% of his production with Hines and another capable back. Q will most likely be untradeable once he signs and extension. 

[coltsfan_canada]

I think Ballard has the toughest job in world when your star QB retired in the preseason game. If it was Mar or Apr 2019 maybe he could have traded and try to fix situation, but right before the season well he had to roll with Jacoby. Only thing I don't understand why offer so much money to Jacoby for backup no clue. He did try to fix QB in 2020 by getting Rivers which the only year we had a chance to move up and get Herbert that could have meant no Buckner or JT also makes very tough decision. Rivers retired thanks to him not at preseason game, so search begins again and this time on Reich recommendations we got Wentz in 2021 which did not roll well and luckily we got 1 of our pick back that was used to get Wentz. I wonder if we could have moved from 21 to 15 or 14 in 2021 draft and pick Mac Jones. Now we are back in same situation as 2019 minus no LT. Not sure what route Ballard will go in FA or Draft but gotta be tough.

[Nickster]

31 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

It's not semantics. You asked a specific question, the answer is no. You're not interested in the answer to your own question?

 

To the rest, I was never too excited about the possibilities of Rodgers or Wilson, I didn't think they were realistic, and I thought they'd be too costly for where our team is, and because of their age. I'm not too excited about Carr because I don't think he's a realistic option, and I don't think he's good enough. I like him, but he's a consolation level player, not a 'move heaven and earth' level player. 

 

In hindsight, I would have been okay with the Stafford deal last year (I wanted Stafford from 2020, but never really thought anyone would give up two firsts for him; I think the Goff situation made it nearly impossible for us to beat the Rams offer). I think we'd be in better shape if we had moved up for Herbert in 2020, even though it probably would mean we don't have Buckner, and probably wouldn't have been able to draft Paye.

 

In 2021, SF gave up three firsts and a third to move up from 12 to 3. I think that's an unprecedented haul, and I doubt that it gets duplicated this year. Maybe SF reset the market, but I think last year was an anomaly. Worst case, on draft night, we could give up 2023-25 firsts to move up to the top ten, or we could include a combo of other picks -- especially ones we're getting from WAS -- and a player in a deal. Like I said, it would be costly, but Ballard said he doesn't view anyone as untouchable. But I don't think there's an "untouchable" level prospect available this year, so I'm not suggesting we do this right now anyway. And next year, we'll have more resources if we want to move up. Right now, it would take someone like Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, coming available for me to be on board with that kind of "untouchable" move. If I'm including Buck or Q, we need to be talking about a high level QB in his mid 20s.

 

Realistically, I think we should sign a mid level guy to a two year deal, and draft our guy in 2023.

They say next year should be a good qb draft.  I just hope we dont go all in for a vet.  I really think that would send us back to the 80s in a season or two.

 

I hope I'm wrong but I'm having a hard time seeing this thing working out this time.  I agree we should go for the guy in the draft after next season but that most likely means 3 years before we have a chance to be very good.

[AwesomeAustin]

37 minutes ago, coltsfan_canada said:

I think Ballard has the toughest job in world when your star QB retired in the preseason game. If it was Mar or Apr 2019 maybe he could have traded and try to fix situation, but right before the season well he had to roll with Jacoby. Only thing I don't understand why offer so much money to Jacoby for backup no clue. He did try to fix QB in 2020 by getting Rivers which the only year we had a chance to move up and get Herbert that could have meant no Buckner or JT also makes very tough decision. Rivers retired thanks to him not at preseason game, so search begins again and this time on Reich recommendations we got Wentz in 2021 which did not roll well and luckily we got 1 of our pick back that was used to get Wentz. I wonder if we could have moved from 21 to 15 or 14 in 2021 draft and pick Mac Jones. Now we are back in same situation as 2019 minus no LT. Not sure what route Ballard will go in FA or Draft but gotta be tough.

I would trade Buckner and JT for Herbert immediately. I would include Paye as well if that meant we had our 3rd last year and 1st this year.  Big price to pay but worth it.  

[Nickster]

37 minutes ago, coltsfan_canada said:

I think Ballard has the toughest job in world when your star QB retired in the preseason game. If it was Mar or Apr 2019 maybe he could have traded and try to fix situation, but right before the season well he had to roll with Jacoby. Only thing I don't understand why offer so much money to Jacoby for backup no clue. He did try to fix QB in 2020 by getting Rivers which the only year we had a chance to move up and get Herbert that could have meant no Buckner or JT also makes very tough decision. Rivers retired thanks to him not at preseason game, so search begins again and this time on Reich recommendations we got Wentz in 2021 which did not roll well and luckily we got 1 of our pick back that was used to get Wentz. I wonder if we could have moved from 21 to 15 or 14 in 2021 draft and pick Mac Jones. Now we are back in same situation as 2019 minus no LT. Not sure what route Ballard will go in FA or Draft but gotta be tough.

I think a big part of our issue is we either overvalued our team or Jim pressured CB into those moves.  

 

I really liked Rivers but hindsight it wasn't short sighted.  We weren't talented enough and it jeopardized our future with little chance that year in reality.  

 

I really hope I'm wrong about this but I think we are headed to less than mediocrity unless alot of pieces fall into place.

 

There seems to be cross purposes among the management team.

[IinD]

League goes in cycles. We had a great run and would've continued it if Luck had stayed.

 

Just gotta find that QB again. Fixing it on the fly the last few years has been tough.

 

Can't fully rebuild and lose all the time like some think is possible. Team owners want gameday money and fans in the seats. If you stop winning people stop caring.

 

Even if your franchise becomes an annual 10-7 #7 seed that always gets bounced that's technically successful even if fans say it isn't.

[Architects08]

No more middle of the pack QBs. Best bet for long term success is swing at the draft. Find a rookie qb you like and you give up the assets to make it happen. That way you have your qb on a rookie deal. Whether thats this year or next year that should be the plan because that's best for the Colts. 

[Nickster]

2 hours ago, coltsfan_canada said:

I think Ballard has the toughest job in world when your star QB retired in the preseason game. If it was Mar or Apr 2019 maybe he could have traded and try to fix situation, but right before the season well he had to roll with Jacoby. Only thing I don't understand why offer so much money to Jacoby for backup no clue. He did try to fix QB in 2020 by getting Rivers which the only year we had a chance to move up and get Herbert that could have meant no Buckner or JT also makes very tough decision. Rivers retired thanks to him not at preseason game, so search begins again and this time on Reich recommendations we got Wentz in 2021 which did not roll well and luckily we got 1 of our pick back that was used to get Wentz. I wonder if we could have moved from 21 to 15 or 14 in 2021 draft and pick Mac Jones. Now we are back in same situation as 2019 minus no LT. Not sure what route Ballard will go in FA or Draft but gotta be tough.

Buckner was a bad move IMO.  We really needed a QB for more than a year and instead we used the best draft capital we had and will have for a while  and a ton of salary  on DB hoping he was Aaron Donald I guess and he’s just not.  He’s good but he’s not all that dominant of a player and never was IMO when looking at grades and numbers.  And the investment is substantial.   There are many players that would help us more in that draft than Buckner at 100 mill.
 

I was very dubious of JT famously on this board lol and he’s way better than I thought but he’s just a RB.  It’s 2022.  In 82 or 92 we are money with him but not in 22.  RBs just do not effect teams like they did back in the day.  I definitely think they overvalue the position.  It’s a good pick, but personally I don’t think Buckner and JT together even come close to the value and outlook for the club than Herbert would have.  Not even close.  Plus I also think there are other combinations of players from that draft that would affect winning to a much greater degree.

[2006Coltsbestever]

With Luck we were 53-33 and 4-4 in the playoffs + an AFC Title Game app = 2012-2016, 2018. 20 games above .500  . Without Luck we are = 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021 we are 31-34 and 0-1 in the playoffs. To me there seems to be a huge difference - yeah we all know 

[Nickster]

1 hour ago, IinD said:

League goes in cycles. We had a great run and would've continued it if Luck had stayed.

 

Just gotta find that QB again. Fixing it on the fly the last few years has been tough.

 

Can't fully rebuild and lose all the time like some think is possible. Team owners want gameday money and fans in the seats. If you stop winning people stop caring.

 

Even if your franchise becomes an annual 10-7 #7 seed that always gets bounced that's technically successful even if fans say it isn't.

Yeah that’s probably going to start happening this year anyway unless a lot of things really come together.  Our schedule is going to be pretty brutal and I’m guessing that I and the other skeptics on this board of the orgs moves lately and the Wentz sideshow aren’t going to be the only Colts fans tepid on the direction of the team.  I would guess season ticket sales aren’t great right now.

[Patagonia Chris]

“Andrew Luck retired unexpectedly so it’s reasonable for the GM to have a roster void of talent at QB, LT, WR, TE, CB and also have 0 pass rushers.” What a wild mindset some of this fan base has. People act like it’s okay for Ballard to neglect obvious needs year after year, so long as we have cap space! Most overrated GM in the NFL.