The Luck Affect

[mirobi48]

I think it has set this team back 5 plus years, 

[MPStack]

10 minutes ago, mirobi48 said:

I think it has set this team back 5 plus years, 

 

Maybe, maybe not. If it does, are you still a Colts fan? I always will be.

 

 

[mirobi48]

Been a Colt fan 50 plus years not going anywhere

 

[r a y s k i]

5 plus years? How do you figure that? 

Let's see how Jacoby does first. We have everything we need around a qb. I think we are in a good spot.

[csmopar]

28 minutes ago, mirobi48 said:

I think it has set this team back 5 plus years, 

I’m not sure it’ll be 5 years. But I do worry now that by the time we do recover, we will have wasted everyone’s primes. Ebron, TY, Mack, Leonard, Nelson etc

[Jdubu]

2 minutes ago, rayski said:

5 plus years? How do you figure that? 

Let's see how Jacoby does first. We have everything we need around a qb. I think we are in a good spot.

Maybe and maybe not. We don’t have a stud franchise RB, we don’t have stud DE’s or a Baltimore type dominating defense like they had back in the day and we certainly don’t know if JB can handle this team in real live fire. 

 

The offense is certainly in a better place than it was when Luck went down in his first year off but we still have a question mark at RB and having a guy we can count on to just hand the ball off for a season and get us through a QB who can just manage the game. 

 

Its the defense that will make or break break this season imho. Is there enough realized talents on the defense that can allow low scoring games on teams like NE, SD, LA or NO types?  We just really don’t know if this defense is going to gel and be capable of both rushing the passer or stopping the run. A lot of unknowns now. Luck had enough talent to overcome many flaws on the team, as did Manning but we aren’t talent deficient as when Manning went out. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

It all depends on how JB plays. If he plays out of his mind he is out next QB. If we have to go draft a young QB it defiantly will. Instead of guys like Leonard being able to contend for a SB at 25 these guys will be 30 if we have to start over with a young QB.

2 minutes ago, Jdubu said:

Maybe and maybe not. We don’t have a stud franchise RB, we don’t have stud DE’s or a Baltimore type dominating defense like they had back in the day and we certainly don’t know if JB can handle this team in real live fire. 

 

The offense is certainly in a better place than it was when Luck went down in his first year off but we still have a question mark at RB and having a guy we can count on to just hand the ball off for a season and get us through a QB who can just manage the game. 

 

Its the defense that will make or break break this season imho. Is there enough realized talents on the defense that can allow low scoring games on teams like NE, SD, LA or NO types?  We just really don’t know if this defense is going to gel and be capable of both rushing the passer or stopping the run. A lot of unknowns now. Luck had enough talent to overcome many flaws on the team, as did Manning but we aren’t talent deficient as when Manning went out. 

JB can do more then manage a game.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

8 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I’m not sure it’ll be 5 years. But I do worry now that by the time we do recover, we will have wasted everyone’s primes. Ebron, TY, Mack, Leonard, Nelson etc

This is my fear also.  

[CoachLite]

1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

It all depends on how JB plays. If he plays out of his mind he is out next QB. If we have to go draft a young QB it defiantly will. Instead of guys like Leonard being able to contend for a SB at 25 these guys will be 30 if we have to start over with a young QB.

It's called "lost opportunity cost", and it's one of the most insidious costs in economics. This is what happened to Luck with Pagano and Grigson, too. We are just now finding out how "expensive" lost opportunity can be.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

It's called "lost opportunity cost", and it's one of the most insidious costs in economics. This is what happened to Luck with Pagano and Grigson, too. We are just now finding out how "expensive" lost opportunity can be.

We can hope ballard will keep building behind them so we will always have guys ready to take on the job. Mahomes was one play away  from a SB his second year. So it can be done.

[Introspect]

Jacoby is a baller and it will be an amazing story when he takes this team to the AFCC this year. I will talk about this with my neighbor on a porch 20 years from now.

 

[Peterk2011]

1 hour ago, mirobi48 said:

I think it has set this team back 5 plus years, 

 

You never know. The probability that the Colts will soon have a talent at QB like Manning and Luck were is slim.

 

But, on the other side, this is probably the best time in NFL history (at least in the salary cap era) to be able to acquire a "good enough" quarterback. How many young QB's hit the NFL in recent years and become "good enough"? A ton, compared to 4-5 years back, or in the early 2000's.

 

I don't know exactly why - whether the NCAA figured it out, or the game has changed, or the evaluation process became better, or the involvement of analytics, or the new breed of NFL coaches, who do research NCAA and implement a lot of college football elements in the offensive schemes -, I don't know. Probably all of them. But the result is evident: in today's NFL, it's probably more important to have a competent coaching staff, who can "handle" a young QB, than the QB himself. You can turn a Goff, a Carr, a Prescott, etc. into a good - winning capable - NFL quarterback, if you have the right coaching staff. So you don't need to necessarily "sell the entire franchise" to acquire the 1/1 to take a generational talent quarterback, like 5-10-15 years ago.

 

I have to add, that I think Brissett - though I like him as a player - is not "that" guy". But the Colts will have a good opportunitiy next year to acquire a young QB, who's ceiling is much higher than Brissett's. Whether it'll be Herbert, Fromm, Costello or someone else, I don't know yet, but whoever will be, he'll have much higher ceiling than Brissett. Will that guy be a Luck or a Mahomes? Probably not, but a) who knows, maybe he will be, b) you can win with a Goff, Prescott, Trubisky in today's football.

 

(I wittingly left Tua out of the 2020 list, 'cause he'll probably go out early, and I believe the Colts won't HAVE to trade up into the top3/top5 to get the #1 QB. Let someone take Tua and get the second or third best guy with a #10-ish pick, like Kansas or Houston did. Or if Herbert will be the top guy, then take Tua. You get the point.)

[LockeDown]

Seattle, Pitt and NE all had good teams when they drafted their franchise QBs and it turned out well immediately. JB May or may not be a franchise QB...we will see.

[aaron11]

40 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I’m not sure it’ll be 5 years. But I do worry now that by the time we do recover, we will have wasted everyone’s primes. Ebron, TY, Mack, Leonard, Nelson etc

 

it might make sense to let Ebron go after this year now.  hes going to want 10 million+, no point in wasting his prime or that money if we dont have a QB

[Jdubu]

28 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

It all depends on how JB plays. If he plays out of his mind he is out next QB. If we have to go draft a young QB it defiantly will. Instead of guys like Leonard being able to contend for a SB at 25 these guys will be 30 if we have to start over with a young QB.

JB can do more then manage a game.

It is quite possible to hit on another QB that finds lightening in a bottle, much like Seattle did with Russell.  We have a good oline, nice receivers and a potentially above average defense. Find the compliment QB to this offense and it’s probably going to still be a competitive team that if things go just right, we win it all still. It’s possible we fall into the Browns style of losing football. I sure hope we don’t just fall off the face of the earth because that team will fold up come the next contract to the city or next time another city offers Irsay lots of gold to change cities. Indy must have good football with someone that can play and have national following to survive in my mind. 

[ColtStrong]

Btw, it's EFFECT not AFFECT. 

[chad72]

44 minutes ago, csmopar said:

I’m not sure it’ll be 5 years. But I do worry now that by the time we do recover, we will have wasted everyone’s primes. Ebron, TY, Mack, Leonard, Nelson etc

 

If guys like Baker Mayfield can help a franchise like the Browns, we should be able to resign a lot of players if we get a QB right from the draft

[csmopar]

Just now, chad72 said:

 

If guys like Baker Mayfield can help a franchise like the Browns, we should be able to resign a lot of players if we get a QB right from the draft

Or if Jacoby pulls this off!

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I am going to be even interested if a guy like AC  sticks around or decides to retire after this season. That could set us back just as much as a QB. Do we resign Doyle or Ebron. Do they want to stick around. This also chances the landscape of who we resign.

[coltsfanej]

The only reason in my mind that it sets us back is because we got nothing for him. I love Andrew and have supported him his tenure here but I never wanted him here. Not because I didn't like him, but because I wanted to trade his pick for a freak show of picks and keep Peyton for a couple more years and use those picks to build....But would it have been Polian or Grigson??

 

Then again when there were rumors of big offers for him coming off injury, I would have traded him. And seen what Brissett could last year and decide how to proceed but with extra draft capitol... But how short of a leash would Jim have put on Chris had this taken place? 

 

Hindsight says that those may have been the better decisions, but if he stayed healthy and gave us a couple SBs I would have been wrong. 

 

I wish Andrew the best and I am excited for what this season holds. If Jacoby plays like a top 10 QB and our young team has improved and shows that we are still contenders, this could be a team that becomes legend if we prevail.  

 

Go COLTS!!!

 

[coltsfan_canada]

The year we had Jacoby has our QB (not that he is any better than luck or all the comebacks we did with Luck) we were so close with Jacoby I can at least count few games where we just lost by a TD at the last snap like Houston TD. I thought we were mostly wining with Jacoby first half of the game and either poor adjustment or bad head coaching or not enough talent lost second half like PITs or SEA. Don't forget we had poor O-Line. No running game, and poor defense. I think this team is very well built only piece is Jacoby or Kelly. Not giving up on this team will have some competitive games to look up for in this upcoming season. Go Colts 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, coltsfan_canada said:

The year we had Jacoby has our QB (not that he is any better than luck or all the comebacks we did with Luck) we were so close with Jacoby I can at least count few games where we just lost by a TD at the last snap like Houston TD. I thought we were mostly wining with Jacoby first half of the game and either poor adjustment or bad head coaching or not enough talent lost second half like PITs or SEA. Don't forget we had poor O-Line. No running game, and poor defense. I think this team is very well built only piece is Jacoby or Kelly. Not giving up on this team will have some competitive games to look up for in this upcoming season. Go Colts 

JB had the lead at halftime in nine games. We know chuck always blew leads because he couldn’t make adjustments.

[coltsfan_canada]

2 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

JB had the lead at halftime in nine games. We know chuck always blew leads because he couldn’t make adjustments.

 

Exactly my point and dont forget the talent we have now compare to what we had that year

[Breeze]

Having Manning and Luck back to back was a lot of fun.  Awesome football, lots of hope every year, and made us forget about the 80’s and 90’s.  But the ultimate goal is a Super Bowl victory.  We won a total of one in those glory years.  And in reality, we were annihilated in ‘most’ of our big playoff games.  Maybe building an awesome ‘team’ around an above average QB going forward might bring us better results.  Might not set us back at all.

[shasta519]

27 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

If guys like Baker Mayfield can help a franchise like the Browns, we should be able to resign a lot of players if we get a QB right from the draft

 

Need to be drafting pretty high to get a Baker. I am very interested to see how Ballard approaches this. Even more interesting will be what type of QB talent Ballard and Reich will look for. 

[jameszeigler834]

9 minutes ago, Breeze said:

Having Manning and Luck back to back was a lot of fun.  Awesome football, lots of hope every year, and made us forget about the 80’s and 90’s.  But the ultimate goal is a Super Bowl victory.  We won a total of one in those glory years.  And in reality, we were annihilated in ‘most’ of our big playoff games.  Maybe building an awesome ‘team’ around an above average QB going forward might bring us better results.  Might not set us back at all.

I hope Brissett can lead this team for a long time if he can he is like 3 years younger than Luck.

[chad72]

25 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Need to be drafting pretty high to get a Baker. I am very interested to see how Ballard approaches this. Even more interesting will be what type of QB talent Ballard and Reich will look for. 

 

RW, Nick Foles and Brees are the only examples of QBs drafted outside Round 1 that have won SBs the last decade. So, it can be done, to be honest, if you build a competent team around them that makes plays on O, D and ST

[Dingus McGirt]

42 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

JB had the lead at halftime in nine games. We know chuck always blew leads because he couldn’t make adjustments.

Coincidental that Pagano was at LOS last night, eh?

[Jdubu]

1 hour ago, Indy_Mike said:

Chad Kelly might be a total bust, or he might be the next super star in this league....I hope the Colts do not just play it safe with Jacoby, if they do I will likely tune out on this team before the season ends. Give Kelly a shot after the suspension and see what you have...he may surprise all of us! I could get excited about this team again if Kelly gets a chance to make something happen!

What a story this would turn into if Kelly, (just because it’s a Jim Kelly family member) would be capable of stepping into the starters role and succeeds with a solid team around him. All we need is a QB who doesn’t turn it over with carelessness. Kelly has shown touch and a strong arm, he needs to show mental toughness and awareness on the field and he has shown he can succeed. JB has also shown some great qualities but between the two, if what we’ve seen of Kelly against lower talents is real, id like his QB skills over JB but CB and Reich will figure this out. They know. 

1 hour ago, LockeDown said:

Seattle, Pitt and NE all had good teams when they drafted their franchise QBs and it turned out well immediately

This Indy team isn’t a bad team overall. If everything that CB said since arriving, he wasn’t building this team for one person to make or break it, it’s about overall talent from top to bottom. So far in two drafts, we’ve taken guys with some major upside. We aren’t in gutter mode like just before Manning took over. Imho 

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

 

it might make sense to let Ebron go after this year now.  hes going to want 10 million+, no point in wasting his prime or that money if we dont have a QB

No, it’s now that you keep high pieced talents around a manager type of QB. Unless the offense now can’t compliment the skill sets of either JB or CK towards the Enron’s type, you keep and pay these new stars. Luck just freed up lots of capspace. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

We don’t want to see Ebron go to the pats lol. We have to keep him.

[aaron11]

1 minute ago, Jdubu said:

What a story this would turn into if Kelly, (just because it’s a Jim Kelly family member) would be capable of stepping into the starters role and succeeds with a solid team around him. All we need is a QB who doesn’t turn it over with carelessness. Kelly has shown touch and a strong arm, he needs to show mental toughness and awareness on the field and he has shown he can succeed. JB has also shown some great qualities but between the two, if what we’ve seen of Kelly against lower talents is real, id like his QB skills over JB but CB and Reich will figure this out. They know. 

This Indy team isn’t a bad team overall. If everything that CB said since arriving, he wasn’t building this team for one person to make or break it, it’s about overall talent from top to bottom. So far in two drafts, we’ve taken guys with some major upside. We aren’t in gutter mode like just before Manning took over. Imho 

No, it’s now that you keep high pieced talents around a manager type of QB. Unless the offense now can’t compliment the skill sets of either JB or CK towards the Enron’s type, you keep and pay these new stars. Luck just freed up lots of capspace. 

 

not a fan of paying expensive free agent receivers if we dont have a QB.  we have plenty of young receivers too

[Colts_Fan12]

2 hours ago, csmopar said:

I’m not sure it’ll be 5 years. But I do worry now that by the time we do recover, we will have wasted everyone’s primes. Ebron, TY, Mack, Leonard, Nelson etc

that's why I have always been a fan of just sucking and getting it over with instead of stretching it out over 5 or 6 years just suck in 2020 and draft Lawrence lol 

[RockThatBlue]

2 hours ago, mirobi48 said:

I think it has set this team back 5 plus years, 

The team this year might be the best roster we've had since 05 or so. It hurts losing Luck obviously, but not sure it sets us back 5 years. 

[GoColts8818]

2 hours ago, MPStack said:

 

Maybe, maybe not. If it does, are you still a Colts fan? I always will be.

 

 

If I can get through Curtis Painter and Jeff George I can handle this.  The Colts will have a franchise QB again.  I just hope all of this maybe makes people realize just how special the Manning, Dungy, and Polian era was and not look back on it with as much what could have been and be more grateful for what was.

[NannyMcafee]

I couldn't find the topic but it has become extremely relevant imo. Franchise QB, or Elite GM? The poll was pretty even. 

 

Can Ballard still be great? I am eager to find out. 

 

Ballard has talked about being ready for every situation. I think he has a plan in place similar to if Andrew was forced by injury into retirement. Whatever the case may be, I'm sure Ballard has a list of QBs he likes. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I am more concerned right now how this effects guys like AC, Doyle, and Ebron. AC retiring could set us back as much as luck retiring. He is 31 so who is to say he will not just walk away after this season now. 

 

Mahomes had KC one off sides penalty away from the SB in his second year. 

[LuckyHorseShoe§]

Just a couple of thoughts as we kick off day 1 of post-Luck:

1. With Luck I feel like we lost more than a great QB. We lost a genuinely good man, the kind of guy in sports whose greatness as a person meets or exceeds his talent. He’s the kind of guy I’ll be telling my kids about, even if I’m just telling them about his book club. To me, that hurts so much more than losing him as a QB. Losing good role models, especially in today’s world, is hard.

2. With that said, I think we should all be thanking our lucky stars that Brisset seems to be a similar, team-first player, and that he and the team are close like the team was with Luck. Speaking from personal experience, without that chemistry between teammates, any amount of talent will just derail itself with feuds, gossiping etc. So thank goodness Jacoby Brisset and the Colts are as tight with each other as they are, or we would be headed for a total rebuild imo

 

Just some loose thoughts I thought might fit here

[Jdubu]

52 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

 

not a fan of paying expensive free agent receivers if we dont have a QB.  we have plenty of young receivers too

You put up successful players around a QB who will be adequate until you get the QB who is the star again. You don’t tank just to hope for a superstar QB. Teams have won with average QB’s in the past and they didn’t just cut all their high paid guys because they didn’t have a Manning or Brady. You build a team around what you have

[aaron11]

Just now, Jdubu said:

You put up successful players around a QB who will be adequate until you get the QB who is the star again. You don’t tank just to hope for a superstar QB. Teams have won with average QB’s in the past and they didn’t just cut all their high paid guys because they didn’t have a Manning or Brady. You build a team around what you have

not singing ebron isnt the same as tanking.  we have lots of other receivers, the team tied a record for most receivers to catch a td.

 

he might not want to come back either, lots of questions will be answered this season 

[Jdubu]

3 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

not singing ebron isnt the same as tanking.  we have lots of other receivers, the team tied a record for most receivers to catch a td.

 

he might not want to come back either, lots of questions will be answered this season 

He might not want to come back true but if he has a season that makes him a big FA draw, why wouldn’t we want him and it’s not like we won’t have the cap space and cash to pay him. I just don’t believe you let successful players leave because you don’t have a 250 million dollar QB. He may not succeed this season with JB or CK, at that point, you let him go and let him seek money elsewhere because it didn’t work, not to save money you have on a guy who did help. The more options for a lesser talent at the QB is the right thing.