Kurt Warner doesn't think Luck is a top-5 QB

[Superman]

1 minute ago, dodsworth said:

Good post but there are holes in it. Last year the team went to the 

playoffs and won a game on the road and 7 of our draft picks

went toward the defense, most of those picks went toward the

linebackers and defensive back position. This alone should

help the pass defense, not to mention the Houston addition.

 

The new offensive additions of Campbell, Funch and Ware

and Cain should go a long way in solving some problems

during scoring drouts, not to mention the addition of a new

O line coach with Howard Mudd thrown in as icing on the cake.

 

We went to the playoffs because we had a light schedule, and thankfully faced a bunch of teams with bad QBing. We beat a struggling team in the playoffs, then got obliterated by a team with a good QB and a good head coach.

 

And I think the main difference is that I'm not penciling in a bunch of rookies to be difference makers in Year 1. I think there's a good chance that anyone drafted after the third round winds up basically redshirting this year, and I think Banogu is as raw as it gets right now, so I don't expect a lot out of him right away.

 

There are a lot of unknowns on this roster. Stating that this is a championship-level roster requires a lot of projection at this point.

[chad72]

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

We went to the playoffs because we had a light schedule, and thankfully faced a bunch of teams with bad QBing. We beat a struggling team in the playoffs, then got obliterated by a team with a good QB and a good head coach.

 

And I think the main difference is that I'm not penciling in a bunch of rookies to be difference makers in Year 1. I think there's a good chance that anyone drafted after the third round winds up basically redshirting this year, and I think Banogu is as raw as it gets right now, so I don't expect a lot out of him right away.

 

There are a lot of unknowns on this roster. Stating that this is a championship-level roster requires a lot of projection at this point.

 

This year, there won't be a shortage of playing teams with good QBing - Brees, Mahomes, Ryan, Rivers, Big Ben, and Cam if he is injury free. Heck, even Derek Carr lit us up last year later in the year, just that we put up 40 plus on them to come away with a win.

[stitches]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I'd like to see them take the handcuffs off and push his limits. I definitely don't think they're getting the max out of him. 

 

In sales, they say if you don't have any refunds or cancellations, you're not maximizing your opportunities and you're leaving business on the table. I think the same principle applies here. They're getting decent production and great efficiency, and I think they can push that further, even sacrificing a little efficiency, and get more production, more playmaking, and win more games. And I'm talking about him as a passer, specifically; overall, he sometimes accounts for 80%+ of their offensive production.

 

As far as abandoning the pocket, I know that he'll scramble prematurely, but I think the impact his height has on him bailing out is overstated. NFL QBs don't stand tall and throw the ball over a brick wall; passing windows open up, the protections get moved, play action gets QBs on the move, RW will roll out and throw on the move, etc. Drew Brees manipulates the pocket as well as Tom Brady, and he's at least four inches shorter. There's a level of expertise that RW will continue to gain as he becomes less reliant on his ability to evade rushers, and eventually he'll have to be less reluctant to pull the trigger, but I don't think that's just tied to his height. 

It's not just due to his height... it's due to multiple factors, height being one of them, his confidence in his playmaking ability out of the pocket being another one, etc.

 

Quote

 

Edit: A lot of QBs miss open receivers, even good ones. But when RW misses one, it's always attributed to his height. I think it's overstated.

 

This article from last year details some of RW's work in the pocket, with plenty of gifs showing how he works in the pocket. And this tweet shows that he has one of the highest passer ratings in the pocket. Not saying he can't improve, just saying I think it's the go-to response from a lot of people to say 'he struggles in the pocket because of his height,' when there's plenty of evidence that he works well in the pocket.

 

And even if his height is a challenge in the pocket, there are obvious ways to mitigate that factor, and increase his volume. Most QBs are more efficient on play action -- a great way to open passing windows -- and RW is no exception there. He can throw on the run as well as anyone else. And of course, their protection sucks, which is the primary reason he bails out, IMO. 

 

I need to see him fail as a higher volume passer, with decent protection and more than one small receiver as a legit option, and let's even get crazy and give him a good playcaller. Without that, I think the real limitations to his game are his circumstances, not his ability.

 

 

I didn't say he struggles in the pocket and I don't doubt that he has high passer rating in the pocket(because he's a good accurate passer and has great arm talent).  The reason is because he throws when he sees what's happening. When he doesn't he doesn't throw. The question is how many times he doesn't throw a ball that a taller QB would see and throw. It's the same reason why short QBs, contrary to popular belief don't struggle with batted balls - they just don't throw when there's ton of bodies in front of them that are likely to bat the ball and they move around to create passing lanes and avoid the clutter. 

 

This all is of course relative. I'm not saying he never sees and never throws, a lot(most) of the time he sees what he needs to see and makes the throws that he needs to make. I'm saying he doesn't see enough throws and is confident enough in his playmaking ability that he leaves enough throws on the field to make it very hard for him to amass 600+ throws a year. 

[Superman]

24 minutes ago, stitches said:

It's not just due to his height... it's due to multiple factors, height being one of them, his confidence in his playmaking ability out of the pocket being another one, etc.

 

 

I didn't say he struggles in the pocket and I don't doubt that he has high passer rating in the pocket(because he's a good accurate passer and has great arm talent).  The reason is because he throws when he sees what's happening. When he doesn't he doesn't throw. The question is how many times he doesn't throw a ball that a taller QB would see and throw. It's the same reason why short QBs, contrary to popular belief don't struggle with batted balls - they just don't throw when there's ton of bodies in front of them that are likely to bat the ball and they move around to create passing lanes and avoid the clutter. 

 

This all is of course relative. I'm not saying he never sees and never throws, a lot of the time he sees what he needs to see and makes the throws that he needs to make. I'm saying he doesn't see enough throws and is confident enough in his playmaking ability that he leaves enough throws on the field to make it very hard for him to amass 600+ throws a year. 

 

I don't see how we can put that much of his lack of volume and 'leaving throws on the field' on his reluctance to pull the trigger. Cut his sacks in half last year and he's still only at 450 attempts. he played all 16 games; the next lowest attempts for a QB who started 16 games was Deshaun Watson with 505. He's another QB who holds the ball too long and is definitely reluctant to pull the trigger -- and he's 6'2", so it's not because he's short. His volume is low primarily as a function of the offense, and that seems like a criminal misuse of one of the best playmakers in the league.

 

It is relative, like you say. I get that his height is a factor, but I think the impact is overstated. People default to 'he didn't see this receiver because he's too short,', or 'he didn't pull the trigger because he didn't want the ball to get batted,' and the reality is even tall QBs miss receivers and get passes batted. Luck gets a lot of balls batted for a combination of reasons.

 

So I'm saying RW is a QB who is actually good in the pocket, and navigates the pocket well, and produces at all levels from the pocket. He also gets flushed from the pocket a lot, and it seems like we attribute that to his instinct to bail because a) he's good at it, or b) he can't see his receivers, when it seems like the primary reasons are y) no one's open, and z) the protection breaks down. Put him with Sean Payton; he's not as masterful as Brees in the pocket, but I think he could be a high volume, high efficiency passer with the right OC/playcaller.

 

Bottom line is I don't think their usage of him as a passer is properly calibrated, and I think the most significant reasons are the flawed offensive approach and the bad OL. 

[stitches]

21 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't see how we can put that much of his lack of volume and 'leaving throws on the field' on his reluctance to pull the trigger. Cut his sacks in half last year and he's still only at 450 attempts. he played all 16 games; the next lowest attempts for a QB who started 16 games was Deshaun Watson with 505. He's another QB who holds the ball too long and is definitely reluctant to pull the trigger -- and he's 6'2", so it's not because he's short. His volume is low primarily as a function of the offense, and that seems like a criminal misuse of one of the best playmakers in the league.

 

I agree having RW throw in the low 400s is criminal. Those coaches and playcallers should be fired for mismanagement of their best player. Again - not everything is due to height, but some of it is. Like you've pointed out above, some of it is playcalling, some of it is his protection failing, and him getting flushed out, some of it is just natural instincts to run and create on the move. 

 

Quote

 

It is relative, like you say. I get that his height is a factor, but I think the impact is overstated. People default to 'he didn't see this receiver because he's too short,', or 'he didn't pull the trigger because he didn't want the ball to get batted,' and the reality is even tall QBs miss receivers and get passes batted. Luck gets a lot of balls batted for a combination of reasons.

 

So I'm saying RW is a QB who is actually good in the pocket, and navigates the pocket well, and produces at all levels from the pocket. He also gets flushed from the pocket a lot, and it seems like we attribute that to his instinct to bail because a) he's good at it, or b) he can't see his receivers, when it seems like the primary reasons are y) no one's open, and z) the protection breaks down. Put him with Sean Payton; he's not as masterful as Brees in the pocket, but I think he could be a high volume, high efficiency passer with the right OC/playcaller.

 

Bottom line is I don't think their usage of him as a passer is properly calibrated, and I think the most significant reasons are the flawed offensive approach and the bad OL. 

 

 

Agree with most of this(and the multiple reasons why he has never been a stay in the pocket and throw QB), again with the exception that I don't think he can be a Brees type pocket passer, simply because his instinct is to leave the pocket and once he leaves it, running it becomes more likely... 

[Superman]

23 minutes ago, stitches said:

Agree with most of this(and the multiple reasons why he has never been a stay in the pocket and throw QB), again with the exception that I don't think he can be a Brees type pocket passer, simply because his instinct is to leave the pocket and once he leaves it, running it becomes more likely... 

 

Yeah, that's the primary disagreement I guess. I don't know that he leaves the pocket primarily because of instinct and ability, I think the fact that his early coaches encouraged him to leave the pocket combined with the bad protection and lack of open receivers is more to blame. But until they fix the protection and receivers, and give him more opportunities, we won't really know one way or the other. I just don't see him bailing out unless he has to, not to the extent people claim he does.

[stitches]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah, that's the primary disagreement I guess. I don't know that he leaves the pocket primarily because of instinct and ability, I think the fact that his early coaches encouraged him to leave the pocket combined with the bad protection and lack of open receivers is more to blame. But until they fix the protection and receivers, and give him more opportunities, we won't really know one way or the other. I just don't see him bailing out unless he has to, not to the extent people claim he does.

Well he has Lockett and Metcalf now... + Jennings from the slot... + Jazz Ferguson who seems to be drawing good reviews from OTAs. If they do have something it's speed so... we'll see how that goes. 

[dodsworth]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

We went to the playoffs because we had a light schedule, and thankfully faced a bunch of teams with bad QBing. We beat a struggling team in the playoffs, then got obliterated by a team with a good QB and a good head coach.

 

And I think the main difference is that I'm not penciling in a bunch of rookies to be difference makers in Year 1. I think there's a good chance that anyone drafted after the third round winds up basically redshirting this year, and I think Banogu is as raw as it gets right now, so I don't expect a lot out of him right away.

 

There are a lot of unknowns on this roster. Stating that this is a championship-level roster requires a lot of projection at this point.

Quinton, Leonard and Braden Smith were 3 instant upgrade starters

at their position last year, so it looks as if Rock, Banago, Okereke,

Campbell and Willis are most likely upgrades on their positions 

This year.

 

My only concern is if the D line will progress or not. The defensive 

backfield and secondary should be solid but I'm not totally on

board with the interior of the D line just yet. 

[Myles]

4 hours ago, Superman said:

 

We went to the playoffs because we had a light schedule, and thankfully faced a bunch of teams with bad QBing. We beat a struggling team in the playoffs, then got obliterated by a team with a good QB and a good head coach.

 

And I think the main difference is that I'm not penciling in a bunch of rookies to be difference makers in Year 1. I think there's a good chance that anyone drafted after the third round winds up basically redshirting this year, and I think Banogu is as raw as it gets right now, so I don't expect a lot out of him right away.

 

There are a lot of unknowns on this roster. Stating that this is a championship-level roster requires a lot of projection at this point.

Not really.   We have a top 5 QB, a good offensive line, a good running back crew, a very good WR crew (including TE's), a decent secondary, a good LB crew and an OK DL.   By all accounts, it looks like a good coaching staff.   

I'm not on board with the 13-15 wins idea, but 10+ is certainly possible.   Cain, Campbell and Rock could all see a bunch of playing time and be high quality.   This team is certainly better than last seasons team.   

[horseshoecrabs]

For goodness sakes guys, Luck, last year was coming back from a potential career ending injury, Shure it took a while for him and the whole revamped offensive line,coaching staff and injuries to gel later on. I think he showed you a few years ago in that comeback against the Chiefs, what he is capable of as a franchise QB I will never forget that fumble he scooped up and dove into the in zone  to score  after that amazing comeback against the Chiefs. I still think he has the same drive , and maybe more. 

[Superman]

27 minutes ago, dodsworth said:

Quinton, Leonard and Braden Smith were 3 instant upgrade starters

at their position last year, so it looks as if Rock, Banago, Okereke,

Campbell and Willis are most likely upgrades on their positions 

This year.

 

My only concern is if the D line will progress or not. The defensive 

backfield and secondary should be solid but I'm not totally on

board with the interior of the D line just yet. 

 

You typically don't get three immediate starters in a draft class. You're lucky if you total three starters in a draft class, let alone in Year 1. 

 

Rock isn't locked in as a starter, he'll have to battle it out with Quincy, most likely. Banogu likely does NOT start, and I don't see who he'd be an upgrade from. He'll be in a position battle no matter where they fit him. Okereke will have to earn a spot, and so will Willis. Campbell has a likely spot at receiver, but as a piece of a rotation.

 

Penciling in any rookie as a starter -- let alone an upgrade -- is premature, at best.

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, Myles said:

Not really.   We have a top 5 QB, a good offensive line, a good running back crew, a very good WR crew (including TE's), a decent secondary, a good LB crew and an OK DL.   By all accounts, it looks like a good coaching staff.   

I'm not on board with the 13-15 wins idea, but 10+ is certainly possible.   Cain, Campbell and Rock could all see a bunch of playing time and be high quality.   This team is certainly better than last seasons team.   

 

There's a big difference between projecting the Colts to be a 10+ win team, and projecting them to be a championship level team. That's a HUGE projection. And it's based on assumptions like we have a good LB crew (we have one good LB), a very good WR crew (we have one good WR, no one else has proven anything; even if you include Ebron, the receiving corps isn't amazing, and that's the same group that dropped 28 passes last year), Cain/Campbell/Rock could be high quality (none of them have played a single down in the NFL), etc. That's all projection.

 

I think the roster is better than last year's on paper, but this team could be better than last year's team and still only win 10 games. Last year's team probably overachieved, and had an easy schedule. Going from playoff contender to real championship contender is a big step, and it's not just about win total.

[horseshoecrabs]

10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

You typically don't get three immediate starters in a draft class. You're lucky if you total three starters in a draft class, let alone in Year 1. 

 

Rock isn't locked in as a starter, he'll have to battle it out with Quincy, most likely. Banogu likely does NOT start, and I don't see who he'd be an upgrade from. He'll be in a position battle no matter where they fit him. Okereke will have to earn a spot, and so will Willis. Campbell has a likely spot at receiver, but as a piece of a rotation.

 

Penciling in any rookie as a starter -- let alone an upgrade -- is premature, at best.

I still think we are a organization on the rise. There will always be constant reshuffling of starters and  depth at position. That's all part of the game. There is never a perfect scenario. At best that we can hope for is limited injury. and hopefully guys that step it up that is unexpected. It is never an exact science. Only players that buy into what you want to accomplish an sometimes over achieve in your philosophy.  

[dodsworth]

25 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

You typically don't get three immediate starters in a draft class. You're lucky if you total three starters in a draft class, let alone in Year 1. 

 

Rock isn't locked in as a starter, he'll have to battle it out with Quincy, most likely. Banogu likely does NOT start, and I don't see who he'd be an upgrade from. He'll be in a position battle no matter where they fit him. Okereke will have to earn a spot, and so will Willis. Campbell has a likely spot at receiver, but as a piece of a rotation.

 

Penciling in any rookie as a starter -- let alone an upgrade -- is premature, at best.

True, but Reich jumped up on the draft room floor and yelled

"Four for four, four for four" so that tells me that they think they

struck gold with their first four picks. 

 

Rock Ya Sin isn't drafted first to be a back up, Okereke or Banago

as a starter at linebacker, I don't see Campbell not starting and 

Ballard moving up to snag Willis tells me that Geathers job may

be in jeopardy, especially on passing downs.

 

We also added Houston as a starter, Funch should start in

the slot if they place him there and Ware as a high quality

 shifty 228lb backup at RB.

 

The player talent is on this team and the experience the young

guys got last year will also pay dividends this year. 

[dodsworth]

34 minutes ago, Superman said:

.

[horseshoecrabs]

Hey a novel concept, Let's see how the preseason and regular season progresses and then pass arm chair QB incites on what we have or don't have that would make us better.  

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, horseshoecrabs said:

Hey a novel concept, Let's see how the preseason and regular season progresses and then pass arm chair QB incites on what we have or don't have that would make us better.  

 

Yeah, let's not talk about anything for the entire offseason.

 

18 minutes ago, horseshoecrabs said:

I still think we are a organization on the rise. There will always be constant reshuffling of starters and  depth at position. That's all part of the game. There is never a perfect scenario. At best that we can hope for is limited injury. and hopefully guys that step it up that is unexpected. It is never an exact science. Only players that buy into what you want to accomplish an sometimes over achieve in your philosophy.  

 

I agree. I'm just saying calling the roster 'championship-caliber' is a major projection. I'm not saying it can't be true.

[Superman]

10 minutes ago, dodsworth said:

True, but Reich jumped up on the draft room floor and yelled

"Four for four, four for four" so that tells me that they think they

struck gold with their first four picks. 

 

Rock Ya Sin isn't drafted first to be a back up, Okereke or Banago

as a starter at linebacker, I don't see Campbell not starting and 

Ballard moving up to snag Willis tells me that Geathers job may

be in jeopardy, especially on passing downs.

 

We also added Houston as a starter, Funch should start in

the slot if they place him there and Ware as a high quality

 shifty 228lb backup at RB.

 

The player talent is on this team and the experience the young

guys got last year will also pay dividends this year. 

 

I mean, every team is excited about their draft. 'He was the best player on our board,' 'He's going to be a special player for us,' 'We see him doing great things for us,' and other superlatives are commonplace. 

 

I'm not saying any of those players won't be good, I'm saying it's unreasonable to expect any of them to be major contributors as rookies. Some are expecting all of them to be major contributors. 

 

If Banogu starts at LB, he won't be an upgrade, IMO. He's not ready to play LB full time, and I don't think he'll ever excel in that role. Okereke needs a lot of work to handle NFL LB responsibilities, so while I like him and his traits, I could see him being out of position and a liability in coverage as a rookie. Willis vs Geathers is a good competition, but Willis as an upgrade is a stretch, especially as a rookie.

 

Campbell will get plenty of reps, but again, his impact is a projection. You're acting like it's a certainty.

 

Lastly, remember that my point initially with regard to the quality/construction of the roster. It was that the idea that this roster is so good that if the Colts aren't a SB contender it means Luck is letting the team down is way off base. It's not that I think the roster sucks; I don't. The point was this isn't such a rock solid roster that as long as Luck plays well we're guaranteed a final four finish, and it seems like that's the direction in which a lot of these projections are going.

[Superman]

3 hours ago, stitches said:

Well he has Lockett and Metcalf now... + Jennings from the slot... + Jazz Ferguson who seems to be drawing good reviews from OTAs. If they do have something it's speed so... we'll see how that goes. 

 

Definitely have speed. I'm not overly impressed with any of those rookies, though. 

[Myles]

42 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

There's a big difference between projecting the Colts to be a 10+ win team, and projecting them to be a championship level team. That's a HUGE projection. And it's based on assumptions like we have a good LB crew (we have one good LB), a very good WR crew (we have one good WR, no one else has proven anything; even if you include Ebron, the receiving corps isn't amazing, and that's the same group that dropped 28 passes last year), Cain/Campbell/Rock could be high quality (none of them have played a single down in the NFL), etc. That's all projection.

 

I think the roster is better than last year's on paper, but this team could be better than last year's team and still only win 10 games. Last year's team probably overachieved, and had an easy schedule. Going from playoff contender to real championship contender is a big step, and it's not just about win total.

I think you are completely wrong on everything you have said.  

One good LB?  Did you watch the games?   The WR crew is very good.   Hilton, Funchess Campbell, Ebron, Doyle, Cain and the rest.   

We'll have to agree to disagree.  

[horseshoecrabs]

34 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah, let's not talk about anything for the entire offseason.

 

 

I agree. I'm just saying calling the roster 'championship-caliber' is a major projection. I'm not saying it can't be true.

Oh please Superman  don't get so defensive The post is about top 5 QB's not the rest of the team's depth or lack of position wise. I think you are a wonderful moderator, and I truly respect your incite. I just think this the wrong post to go in-depth over the rest of the team.   

[aaron11]

2 hours ago, dodsworth said:

Quinton, Leonard and Braden Smith were 3 instant upgrade starters

at their position last year, so it looks as if Rock, Banago, Okereke,

Campbell and Willis are most likely upgrades on their positions 

This year.

 

My only concern is if the D line will progress or not. The defensive 

backfield and secondary should be solid but I'm not totally on

board with the interior of the D line just yet. 

its going to be tough for a 4th round rookie to beat out geathers and farley this year.  most of these guys look like they will be back ups to me this season 

 

ya sin and campbell will probably be third or so on the depth chart, that would give them a lot of snaps 

[dodsworth]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I mean, every team is excited about their draft. 'He was the best player on our board,' 'He's going to be a special player for us,' 'We see him doing great things for us,' and other superlatives are commonplace. 

 

I'm not saying any of those players won't be good, I'm saying it's unreasonable to expect any of them to be major contributors as rookies. Some are expecting all of them to be major contributors. 

 

If Banogu starts at LB, he won't be an upgrade, IMO. He's not ready to play LB full time, and I don't think he'll ever excel in that role. Okereke needs a lot of work to handle NFL LB responsibilities, so while I like him and his traits, I could see him being out of position and a liability in coverage as a rookie. Willis vs Geathers is a good competition, but Willis as an upgrade is a stretch, especially as a rookie.

 

Campbell will get plenty of reps, but again, his impact is a projection. You're acting like it's a certainty.

 

Lastly, remember that my point initially with regard to the quality/construction of the roster. It was that the idea that this roster is so good that if the Colts aren't a SB contender it means Luck is letting the team down is way off base. It's not that I think the roster sucks; I don't. The point was this isn't such a rock solid roster that as long as Luck plays well we're guaranteed a final four finish, and it seems like that's the direction in which a lot of these projections are going.

Leonard excelled at linebacker on his way to the probowl, so why

can't Banogu, Okereke or even Speed nail down a starting position?

 

Campbell could well be one of the big steals of the draft, so I don't 

foresee him not starting. Him or Funch will man the slot and the

other will play opposite of Ty. Inman was solid but was already 

let go so that opens up a slot.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, dodsworth said:

Leonard excelled at linebacker on his way to the probowl, so why

can't Banogu, Okereke or even Speed nail down a starting position?

 

Campbell could well be one of the big steals of the draft, so I don't 

foresee him not starting. Him or Funch will man the slot and the

other will play opposite of Ty. Inman was solid but was already 

let go so that opens up a slot.

Banogu was in a very scheme specific defense. He's raw, and has very little "technique". Not saying he won't be good, or even great some day, but he's a major project. We didn't use a SAM last year a lot IIRC based on snap counts, so there's that too. To add, thought most reports had him working with the DEs during OTA. IMO, the Colts should use him in scheme specific snaps to maximize his athleticism, and not try to overload him to early.

 

Okereke is a project too. As a ND fan, I payed plenty of attention to him over the years. His base is pretty slight for a MLB. Again, he might be good, but I don't see him passing Walker this year. I'll be happy if he excels on STs. You have to have a very low opinion of Walker (who had a good tackle/snap ratio last year to think Okereke jumps him.

 

Speed, not sure where he'll end up. If it's WLB, he'll be behind Leonard. If SAM, again, we used SAM very little last year. The guy is really a wildcard if you know his history. Converted in college from QB to WR to LB. Had several injuries. And arrested... IMO it will be a victory if simply makes the team.

[2006Coltsbestever]

11 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Definitely. Not sure how much stock people put into passer rating...but Luck has yet to break the 100 threshold in that area. Now that's only one stat...and it's directional...but it's meant to be a (somewhat) holistic account of the season. 

 

Meanwhile, Luck's counterparts have surpassed that level...and many did so at this age. Luck will have to get much more efficient though...and if he does...I think a Ryan-esque season could very much be in play. The key to that consistency will be decision-making (of course)...but also having an offensive system that values high percentage throws and weapons that have the potential for YAC. Parris Campbell is a huge step in that direction.

 

 

I am one that doesn't put much stock into passer rating. It doesn't tell near the story how good a QB is. Luck had one of the worse passer ratings his rookie season, it was almost last if I remember correctly. Yet he threw for over 4300 yards and 23 TD's + the team went 11-5. Come from behind wins isn't measured in passer rating either.

 

What I look for in a QB is yards passing = moving the chains, TD's thrown = scoring, and how well he plays in the 4th Qtr in tight games. Those measurable's alone puts Luck way up there for his career.

[Dark Superman]

Having Patrick Mahomes on this list after one good season on a stacked offense is a joke.

[Superman]

15 hours ago, dodsworth said:

Leonard excelled at linebacker on his way to the probowl, so why

can't Banogu, Okereke or even Speed nail down a starting position?

 

Campbell could well be one of the big steals of the draft, so I don't 

foresee him not starting. Him or Funch will man the slot and the

other will play opposite of Ty. Inman was solid but was already 

let go so that opens up a slot.

 

Leonard is an outlier. Rookies don't usually excel in Year 1. Expecting any of our rookies to look anything like Leonard did is setting yourself up for disappointment. 

 

Also, honest question: Has anyone here ever seen EJ Speed play? I haven't. We don't know what he is, or what he will be. I'd bet dollars to donuts that he's not a Pro Bowler this year.

[Superman]

16 hours ago, Myles said:

I think you are completely wrong on everything you have said.  

One good LB?  Did you watch the games?   The WR crew is very good.   Hilton, Funchess Campbell, Ebron, Doyle, Cain and the rest.   

We'll have to agree to disagree.  

 

What other good LB do we have? Walker is just a guy, and no one else has played.

 

Funchess is a major question mark. Campbell and Cain have never played an NFL game (I really like them both). Ebron and Doyle (assuming they're healthy) are good, but again, they were in the mix last season when the receiving corp as a whole had bad games, and dropped 28 passes.

 

I am optimistic about all of these guys. All I'm saying is pointing to these guys and saying anything more than 'I'm eager to see what we have' is incredibly ambitious. We have one proven LB, and one proven WR. To me, everyone else at those two positions is a question mark right now. TE is solid, assuming they're healthy.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Walker is not just a guy. He had over 100 tackles last year.

[Jason_]

Just now, Chloe6124 said:

Walker is not just a guy. He had over 100 tackles last year.

 

Pat Angerer had over 100 tackles once. Number of tackles is a bad way to measure how good a LB is.

[Jason_]

14 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I am one that doesn't put much stock into passer rating. It doesn't tell near the story how good a QB is.

 

Of course it doesn't...it wasn't intended to.  It was meant to provide a measure of the QBs passing efficiency.  And for that it does a very good job.  

[dodsworth]

23 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Leonard is an outlier. Rookies don't usually excel in Year 1. Expecting any of our rookies to look anything like Leonard did is setting yourself up for disappointment. 

 

Also, honest question: Has anyone here ever seen EJ Speed play? I haven't. We don't know what he is, or what he will be. I'd bet dollars to donuts that he's not a Pro Bowler this year.

Quinton, Leonard and Braden Smith all excelled in their rookie campaigns. Hines, Lewis, Turay all had their moments as well.

 

EJ speed has the measurements, speed and tenacity to play LB in

the NFL but has questions coming from a small school. This is the

first I have heard anyone use his name and pro bowler in the 

same sentence......

[Superman]

1 minute ago, dodsworth said:

Quinton, Leonard and Braden Smith all excelled in their rookie campaigns. Hines, Lewis, Turay all had their moments as well.

 

EJ speed has the measurements, speed and tenacity to play LB in

the NFL but has questions coming from a small school. This is the

first I have heard anyone use his name and pro bowler in the 

same sentence......

 

Expecting EJ Speed to even be a contributor is extremely ambitious, bordering on unreasonable; expecting him to be a starter is kind of outrageous. Asking again, have you ever seen him play football?

 

Nelson and Leonard excelled as rookies. You do get that having two high level rookies in one year is a major outlier, right? Rookies are usually NOT difference makers. Expecting rookies to be major contributors and upgrades is, again, a very ambitious projection.

[krunk]

19 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Expecting EJ Speed to even be a contributor is extremely ambitious, bordering on unreasonable; expecting him to be a starter is kind of outrageous. Asking again, have you ever seen him play football?

 

Nelson and Leonard excelled as rookies. You do get that having two high level rookies in one year is a major outlier, right? Rookies are usually NOT difference makers. Expecting rookies to be major contributors and upgrades is, again, a very ambitious projection.

Why is expecting him to be a contributor ambitious?  That means to me that Ballard spending a 5th on the guy is borderline insane asylum then.  A contributor in my mind is a special teams player. I sort of expect a 5th round pick to at least be a special teams contributor.  I don't think that's all that unreasonable. I think if you don't expect him to be that then you grab him as a 6th, 7th Rder, or UDFA.

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, krunk said:

Why is expecting him to be a contributor ambitious?  That means to me that Ballard spending a 5th on the guy is borderline insane asylum then.  A contributor in my mind is a special teams player.

 

I'm talking specifically about him contributing to the defense.

 

I can't provide an evaluation or analysis or even opinion of Ballard drafting him because I've never even seen him play (and I doubt anyone else has). Some are projecting him as not only a contributor to the defense, but as an upgrade over what we had last year -- which is where this whole thing started. 

[krunk]

13 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm talking specifically about him contributing to the defense.

 

I can't provide an evaluation or analysis or even opinion of Ballard drafting him because I've never even seen him play (and I doubt anyone else has). Some are projecting him as not only a contributor to the defense, but as an upgrade over what we had last year -- which is where this whole thing started. 

We have to see but I do believe he's an upgrade in terms of the type of athletic profile we had back there.  Still have to see if it translates though.

[krunk]

I am wanting to see how well Speed can  play the Will linebacker. He appears to have all the athletic traits you need for that spot. Keep him clean and let him chase stuff down.

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, J@son said:

 

Pat Angerer had over 100 tackles once. Number of tackles is a bad way to measure how good a LB is.

 

Yep...and total tackles isn't a great metric...because it includes assisted tackles..which can be subjective and inaccurate based on who is keeping count.

 

Walker is a lower-tier starting ILB in the NFL...and definitely an area where this team can upgrade. I am excited to see what Okereke can do...because the short-intermediate part of the field has been a weakness.

[Myles]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

 

 

Nelson and Leonard excelled as rookies. You do get that having two high level rookies in one year is a major outlier, right? Rookies are usually NOT difference makers. Expecting rookies to be major contributors and upgrades is, again, a very ambitious projection.

You forgot Smith.

 

Walker played very good last season.   

It's fairly obvious that the Colts improved their team through the draft and in free agency.  

The were a playoff team last season and look to have taken a step forward.  The Chiefs look to have taken a step back.  I think that leaves the Colts as one of the top 3 teams in the AFC.   That would be a championship contender.   Sure, they still have to play the games, but so does every other team.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

20 hours ago, Myles said:

I think you are completely wrong on everything you have said.  

One good LB?  Did you watch the games?   The WR crew is very good.   Hilton, Funchess Campbell, Ebron, Doyle, Cain and the rest.   

We'll have to agree to disagree.  

 

Let's not crown the WR group just yet.

Funchess has only had 1 good season so far out of 4.

Campbell & Cain have never caught a NFL pass yet.

Doyle is a nice player, but coming off of serious hip injury and is mostly a short pattern type of receiver.

 

It has potential if things go right for the group but as of now there are some questions and growing pains.