Kurt Warner doesn't think Luck is a top-5 QB

[shasta519]

2 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

Tom's fading and relying more and more on his team.  He's still a good QB but not top 5. 

 

I would like to see more out of Mahomes then one year.  If he can string together another year or 2 of the kind of production he's had then I think he's the #1 QB in the NFL and it would be hard to argue.  But RG3 had a great first season too.  

 

1. Brees

2. Rodgers

3. Luck

4. Ryan

5. Rivers

 

Matty Ice had a terrific season last year. Ryan is an interesting case...overrated early in his career and now underrated player..despite basically turning into a top 5 QB. 

 

People might not like this...but Luck's career so far has been more Matt Ryan-esque. Ryan took his game to an entirely new level once he got to his age 30+ seasons and got to a Super Bowl they should have won. I think Luck can do the same...based on what we saw last year...and with the pieces in place.

[EastStreet]

Mahomes may not deserve to be on a 5 year, or 10 year list, but there is not question by all metrics that he was the best QB last year. 

 

If I'm a franchise today (not yesterday or years ago), the two QBs I'd take if I could have anyone for the next 2-3 years, would be Mahomes and Luck. 

 

It will be interesting to see how Mahomes does now that he won't surprise anyone, and teams have his film. 

 

Now that Luck has full box of toys, I'd bank on him being a top 3 guy easily this year.

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

Mahomes may not deserve to be on a 5 year, or 10 year list, but there is not question by all metrics that he was the best QB last year. 

 

If I'm a franchise today (not yesterday or years ago), the two QBs I'd take if I could have anyone for the next 2-3 years, would be Mahomes and Luck. 

 

It will be interesting to see how Mahomes does now that he won't surprise anyone, and teams have his film. 

 

Now that Luck has full box of toys, I'd bank on him being a top 3 guy easily this year.

I could make a strong case for Luck having the 2nd best season out of all QB's Statistically and winning wise and only Mahomes was better by my eye view. Brady won the SB but Luck had a better a season than even he did factoring in everything. Rodgers struggled and the Pack didn't even make the playoffs.

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I could make a strong case for Luck having the 2nd best season out of all QB's Statistically and winning wise and only Mahomes was better by my eye view. Brady won the SB but Luck had a better a season than even he did factoring in everything. Rodgers struggled and the Pack didn't even make the playoffs.

yup. Luck had the 2nd most TDs, and did it with a pretty mediocre WR unit. 

 

not trying to be a Luck homer, but I'd bet he has a career year in 2019 now that he has a good OL and fast toys to play with. it was also the 1st year in FR's system.

 

i think Mahomes will take a step back, but it will likely be him and Luck battling in the top 3 IMO. 

 

Murray will be very interesting this year. AZ drafted two nice WR toys to go along with him. They should be fun to watch the next 5 years. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Irish YJ said:

yup. Luck had the 2nd most TDs, and did it with a pretty mediocre WR unit. 

 

not trying to be a Luck homer, but I'd bet he has a career year in 2019 now that he has a good OL and fast toys to play with. it was also the 1st year in FR's system.

 

i think Mahomes will take a step back, but it will likely be him and Luck battling in the top 3 IMO. 

 

Murray will be very interesting this year. AZ drafted two nice WR toys to go along with him. They should be fun to watch the next 5 years. 

I agree, the people saying Luck doesn't belong in the top 5 is puzzling to me, I mean it is their opinion but going by last season statistically and winning wise they are wrong. Luck was better than Rodgers and Ben if you by last season. 

[BigQungus]

4 hours ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

how is he attacking his character? he said he left his wife for another woman. the man himself did that. and when he did that he opened the door for comments to be made. that's not attacking ones character. now if I were to say you were a piece of % and had no morals I would be attacking your character with no grounds for my assumptions.

 

Whether an Ad Hominem attack is true or not is irrelevant to whether it is an Ad Hominem

[EastStreet]

5 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I agree, the people saying Luck doesn't belong in the top 5 is puzzling to me, I mean it is their opinion but going by last season statistically and winning wise they are wrong. Luck was better than Rodgers and Ben if you by last season. 

stats wise, Luck was definitely top 5, with crap receiving support, and in a new system. 

 

haters will eat their words this year. 

 

and we're going to need it, playing 7 of the top 11 Os from last year.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Irish YJ said:

stats wise, Luck was definitely top 5, with crap receiving support, and in a new system. 

 

haters will eat their words this year. 

 

and we're going to need it, playing 7 of the top 11 Os from last year.

Ben was pretty even with him statistically because of Yards but we won more games, so if you factor in everything, Luck was better. I am not sure how it can be debated if one just goes by last year. Also Rodgers only threw for 25 TD's last season and the Pack weren't even close to making the playoffs. I am just going by last season not all-time. Isn't that what Warner is doing? If so he is wrong. If he is basing his opinion all-time then Ben and Rodgers belong in the top 5 out of today's QB's playing but why would Mahomes belong then? He has only had 1 great year, Luck has had 4 very good to great seasons. I am confused what Warner's list is based on.

[BigQungus]

I am shocked that many people agree with this list. Big Ben had a slightly worse season than Luck with 2 top 10 WRs last year. I know my opinion about Big Ben is unpopular, but I'm not even sure he's a top 10 QB. In no particular order, Luck, Wilson, Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Goff, Mayfield, Rivers, Ryan. Not a solid list, and I'm fine if someone puts Big Ben in the place of Goff or Ryan, but he's still massively overrated. And putting Tom Brady at number 1 is just awful. I'll begrudgingly let someone put him top 5, but even that's a stretch. His numbers are worse than Luck's. Just because he had 1 good playoff game and won the Super Bowl, everyone thinks he's the best QB in the league. They're just being lazy, and they're not actually paying attention to how he's playing in the 16 regular season games. Some people are saying, well, they have the legacy factor. But this isn't an all-time list. This is a ranking of the best QBs right now. As 2006ColtsBestEver said in the post above me, this is a ranking of last season, not all-time

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, BigQungus said:

I am shocked that many people agree with this list. Big Ben had a slightly worse season than Luck with 2 top 10 WRs last year. I know my opinion about Big Ben is unpopular, but I'm not even sure he's a top 10 QB. In no particular order, Luck, Wilson, Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Goff, Mayfield, Rivers, Ryan. Not a solid list, and I'm fine if someone puts Big Ben in the place of Goff or Ryan, but he's still massively overrated. And putting Tom Brady at number 1 is just awful. I'll begrudgingly let someone put him top 5, but even that's a stretch. His numbers are worse than Luck's. Just because he had 1 good playoff game and won the Super Bowl, everyone thinks he's the best QB in the league. They're just being lazy, and they're not actually paying attention to how he's playing in the 16 regular season games. Some people are saying, well, they have the legacy factor. But this isn't an all-time list. This is a ranking of the best QBs right now. As 2006ColtsBestEver said in the post above me, this is a ranking of last season, not all-time

To your last sentence, that is what I thought it was supposed to be. If so Luck is top 5 easily. 

[Superman]

11 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

To your last sentence, that is what I thought it was supposed to be. If so Luck is top 5 easily. 

 

The fact that Brady is #1 on that list makes me think it's NOT based on 2018 alone. If it's last year alone, I'd get rid of Brady before I got rid of Ben.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Superman said:

 

The fact that Brady is #1 on that list makes me think it's NOT based on 2018 alone. If it's last year alone, I'd get rid of Brady before I got rid of Ben.

Yeah I am thinking Warner is factoring in the career's of the QB/reputation. If that is the case then his list makes sense. 

[Superman]

7 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah I am thinking Warner is factoring in the career's of the QB/reputation. If that is the case then his list makes sense. 

 

That's why I didn't have a problem with it to begin with. If it's meant to be top five in 2018, then it's all wrong.

 

But overall, active QBs? There could be some argument with Ben, Luck, Wilson, Ryan, and maybe Mahomes, if you have a problem with a one year QB being on the list; I don't in this case, because Mahomes was outstanding and had an all time great season. But once you get past Brady, Brees and Rodgers, the next tier is 4-6 guys, and it's going to be debatable, depending on what criteria the evaluator emphasizes the most.

[NannyMcafee]

1 hour ago, BigQungus said:

 

Whether an Ad Hominem attack is true or not is irrelevant to whether it is an Ad Hominem

 

It's just my opinion. 

[tikyle]

21 hours ago, Devildog said:

Unless he proves himself year after year then sure.  But one year does not make him top 5.

So I guess Cam Newton and Matt Ryan should be on the list too, because they were MVP as well.

 

 

Right now he is a top 5 QB.  When Cam Newton and Matt Ryan won their MVPs they were top 5 QBs at those times.  Why is that so difficult to admit?  Right now Peyton Manning is not a top 5 QB.  When he was on the Colts for most of his seasons he was.

 

This isn't an all time list, it's a right now list and right now if he does not play another down in the NFL at this very moment Patrick Mahomes is a top 5 QB and every general manager in the NFL would agree.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I can agree with them all but Mahomes. Mahomes has had one good season. The rest have all won a SB. Luck should be number five and mahomes off the list.

[2006Coltsbestever]

34 minutes ago, tikyle said:

 

Right now he is a top 5 QB.  When Cam Newton and Matt Ryan won their MVPs they were top 5 QBs at those times.  Why is that so difficult to admit?  Right now Peyton Manning is not a top 5 QB.  When he was on the Colts for most of his seasons he was.

 

This isn't an all time list, it's a right now list and right now if he does not play another down in the NFL at this very moment Patrick Mahomes is a top 5 QB and every general manager in the NFL would agree.

If it isn't an all-time list why is Rodgers on it then?

[2006Coltsbestever]

If you go by last season, it should be Mahomes 1, Luck 2, Brees 3. Based on QB performance and team success. I can see Brady still being in that because his team won the SB.

[EastStreet]

3 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Ben was pretty even with him statistically because of Yards but we won more games, so if you factor in everything, Luck was better. I am not sure how it can be debated if one just goes by last year. Also Rodgers only threw for 25 TD's last season and the Pack weren't even close to making the playoffs. I am just going by last season not all-time. Isn't that what Warner is doing? If so he is wrong. If he is basing his opinion all-time then Ben and Rodgers belong in the top 5 out of today's QB's playing but why would Mahomes belong then? He has only had 1 great year, Luck has had 4 very good to great seasons. I am confused what Warner's list is based on.

Yup, having Mahomes and not Luck made zero sense. 

I like KW, but maybe he's getting old lol.

 

 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

If it isn't an all-time list why is Rodgers on it then?

 

Rodgers had a strong season in 2018, guys.

[stitches]

I don't think it's hard to make the case for Luck to be on a top 5 list at all. But I also don't think it's worth spending much time making the case any of the listed ones shouldn't be there... so... there's that. 

[King Colt]

Luck is definitely NOT in the top five. Top 5 in getting sacked YES. Top 5 in sitting out a season YES. With the new Colts his numbers should soar but that does not override the other QBs mentioned here. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

26 minutes ago, King Colt said:

Luck is definitely NOT in the top five. Top 5 in getting sacked YES. Top 5 in sitting out a season YES. With the new Colts his numbers should soar but that does not override the other QBs mentioned here. 

Mahomes has only played one year lol.

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 hour ago, King Colt said:

Luck is definitely NOT in the top five. Top 5 in getting sacked YES. Top 5 in sitting out a season YES. With the new Colts his numbers should soar but that does not override the other QBs mentioned here. 

Did you miss last season? Did you miss 2012-2014? This post is odd, sorry. Luck was the least sacked QB last season in the AFC and has won 10 games or more 4 times as a starter with rosters that were not loaded with talent on either side of the ball. 

[horseshoecrabs]

The talent on  the team, the coaches that train them and the plays they call has  a lot to do with the success of any QB. Bad offensive lines, bad coaching, can make most quarterbacks look  bad. 

Sure a good QB can help carry the team, but, think about it. What kind of season would Tom Brady have had if he was on our team post Luck's injury, when our line sucked? It's all subjective. If Trent Green would have not broken his leg before the season started, for the Rams, with all of the weapons they had on that team, we probably would not have ever heard of Kurt Warner. So my point is Kurt had better be glad that he stepped in for Trent Green instead of having a team that Jacoby Brissett had to for Luck. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 minutes ago, horseshoecrabs said:

The talent on  the team, the coaches that train them and the plays they call has  a lot to do with the success of any QB. Bad offensive lines, bad coaching, can make most quarterbacks look  bad. 

Sure a good QB can help carry the team, but, think about it. What kind of season would Tom Brady have had if he was on our team post Luck's injury, when our line sucked? It's all subjective. If Trent Green would have not broken his leg before the season started, for the Rams, with all of the weapons they had on that team, we probably would not have ever heard of Kurt Warner. So my point is Kurt had better be glad that he stepped in for Trent Green instead of having a team that Jacoby Brissett had to for Luck. 

I think Kurt is an all-time great but had he been on our 2017 team like Brissett was, he would've been in trouble. He was a statue in the pocket and our O.Line sucked.

[EastStreet]

27 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think Kurt is an all-time great but had he been on our 2017 team like Brissett was, he would've been in trouble. He was a statue in the pocket and our O.Line sucked.

Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, etc.. would have been in trouble behind that line, and with our WR crew.... 

 

That's one reason I give JB more credit than most.

[coltsfan77]

Refuse to let myself  get in this argument anymore. As much I would like, but the Peyton years burned me out. Not going to let others upset me over individual players anymore. I don't care who likes Luck or doesn't. Doesn't matter how they rate him vs others. I am in all team mode and want superbowls and championships.  Take care of that and everything else falls in to place!

[2006Coltsbestever]

7 minutes ago, coltsfan77 said:

Refuse to let myself  get in this argument anymore. As much I would like, but the Peyton years burned me out. Not going to let others upset me over individual players anymore. I don't care who likes Luck or doesn't. Doesn't matter how they rate him vs others. I am in all team mode and want superbowls and championships.  Take care of that and everything else falls in to place!

I get what you are saying but when you have a great franchise like our's, these type of discussions just come with the territory. Once Luck wins a SB which he will, then it will be can he become a top 5 QB ever by the media and fans.

[shasta519]

3 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, etc.. would have been in trouble behind that line, and with our WR crew.... 

 

That's one reason I give JB more credit than most.

 

Rodgers has had bad OL play quite often. His pocket presence and ability to throw on the run is second to none.

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Rodgers has had bad OL play quite often. His pocket presence and ability to throw on the run is second to none.

GB's OL was ranked 7th last year by FO, 5th in 2017. I can't feel too sorry for him the last two years. He's a good QB no doubt, but his OL has had ups and downs like most.

[shasta519]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Rodgers had a strong season in 2018, guys.

 

O.3% INT rate. GB’s offense was a mess last year...they should be much better this season. LaFleur has coached on some pretty good offenses in recent years (last year’s TEN team excluded). Thought for sure they would

draft a WR...but they have a couple of interesting young guys. I expect Rodgers to “bounce back” this season

from an overall production standpoint.

[shasta519]

44 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

GB's OL was ranked 7th last year by FO, 5th in 2017. I can't feel too sorry for him the last two years. He's a good QB no doubt, but his OL has had ups and downs like most.

 

Not according to Football Outsiders. They have GB’s pass protection ranked as follows:

 

2018 - 21

2017 - 28 

2016 - 11

2015 - 23

2014 - 13

2013 - 26

 

Not really much “up” and mostly “down.” Rodgers hasn’t had top-tier pas protection for an entire decade...and it’s often pretty bad...and has gotten him injured (like Luck).

 

His pass protection in 2017 was actually almost as bad as Brissett’s...and he ultimately fractured his collar bone after being flushed out of the pocket. But in the 9 games he did play, he put up a 97 passer rating. 

 

From 2009-2014, his average passer rating was 110...and only one season did he have an OL above 23rd.

 

The guy is the best ever IMO. Suffice to say...I think he would have managed alright on the 2017 Colts...unlike the others you mentioned.

 

 

 

 

[BigQungus]

20 hours ago, Superman said:

 

That's why I didn't have a problem with it to begin with. If it's meant to be top five in 2018, then it's all wrong.

 

But overall, active QBs? There could be some argument with Ben, Luck, Wilson, Ryan, and maybe Mahomes, if you have a problem with a one year QB being on the list; I don't in this case, because Mahomes was outstanding and had an all time great season. But once you get past Brady, Brees and Rodgers, the next tier is 4-6 guys, and it's going to be debatable, depending on what criteria the evaluator emphasizes the most.

 

Is it greatest QBs that are playing right now? Is it top 5 right now? We simply don't know. This list is confusing.

[EastStreet]

7 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Not according to Football Outsiders. They have GB’s pass protection ranked as follows:

 

2018 - 21

2017 - 28 

2016 - 11

2015 - 23

2014 - 13

2013 - 26

 

Not really much “up” and mostly “down.” Rodgers hasn’t had top-tier pas protection for an entire decade...and it’s often pretty bad...and has gotten him injured (like Luck).

 

His pass protection in 2017 was actually almost as bad as Brissett’s...and he ultimately fractured his collar bone after being flushed out of the pocket. But in the 9 games he did play, he put up a 97 passer rating. 

 

From 2009-2014, his average passer rating was 110...and only one season did he have an OL above 23rd.

 

The guy is the best ever IMO. Suffice to say...I think he would have managed alright on the 2017 Colts...unlike the others you mentioned.

 

I don't totally ignore the pass blocking rank, but like others have pointed out, it relies almost solely on sacks. I look at run blocking and TT (time to pass). Good run blocking and a short TT typically always equate to a good pass blocking rating. Good run blocking and a poor TT (holds the ball too long), typically means the pass protection is good or at least decent, but the QB is simply holding onto the ball too long.

 

In GB's case, they were top 10 in run blocking, and Rogers held onto the ball 5th longest.

 

PFF ranked GB's line 7th overall, and had this to say.

 

Quote

Green Bay had their issues at right guard all season long, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that they sent out the best pass-protecting tackle duo in the league. David Bakhtiari had the highest pass-blocking grade among all tackles while Bryan Bulaga ranked second among right tackles in the NFL this season.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-2018-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-all-32-teams-units-after-week-17

 

and 

 

Quote

Green Bay had their issues along the interior, but it’s hard to overlook the fact that they sent out the best pass-protecting tackle duo in the league last year. Left tackle David Bakhtiari had the highest pass-blocking grade among all tackles while Bryan Bulaga ranked second among right tackles, and it’s a huge reason why the team allowed just 179 pressures from 729 passing snaps.

 

[pgt_rob]

So, Luck is a top 6 QB then?

[shasta519]

56 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

 

I don't totally ignore the pass blocking rank, but like others have pointed out, it relies almost solely on sacks. I look at run blocking and TT (time to pass). Good run blocking and a short TT typically always equate to a good pass blocking rating. Good run blocking and a poor TT (holds the ball too long), typically means the pass protection is good or at least decent, but the QB is simply holding onto the ball too long.

 

In GB's case, they were top 10 in run blocking, and Rogers held onto the ball 5th longest.

 

PFF ranked GB's line 7th overall, and had this to say.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-2018-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-all-32-teams-units-after-week-17

 

and 

 

 

 

Total sacks might be a poor way...but they use adjusted sack rate, which accounts for several factors, including how many times you pass. I get there are ways to disrupt a QB without actually sacking him...but if you look at QB hits and pressures, they were still in the bottom third of the league.

 

If you look at their pass blocking efficiency on PFF, they were #13...which is better...but still not top tier. But the number of passing plays that PFF is measuring QB pressures/hurries against to arrive at that ranking seem unreliable. They have IND as only having 573 passing plays...but Colts QBs had 643 passing attempts last season (plus sacks and scrambles). And they have GB at a whopping 729 passing plays, even though the Packers QBs have 640 passing attempts (less than the Colts). Even if you account for the difference in sacks (I assume those are counted as passing plays), that difference of 35 does not being to account for the 150+ gap difference in the number of passing plays (especially since QB rushing attempts were almost identical). Because of that, they have IND at #10 in pass-blocking efficiency and GB at #13. Just seems a bit unreliable to me.

 

As for TT, I think it can be misleading. A lot of those guys are just pretty good scramblers...naturally they are going to have higher TT, regardless of pass blocking. They could be holding onto the ball too long or they could be forced to scramble and make plays because or pressure. The correlation to the run game can also be inconsistent I would think. OAK had a solid run game and Carr had the smallest TT...and still had poor pass blocking. SEA had a solid run game and Wilson had one of the highest TT...but poor pass blocking.

 

I just can't buy that Rodgers has had top tier pass blocking the past two years...and definitely not going back several years. Yes, the OTs are good...but Colts fans know firsthand what happens when your interior OL struggles.

 

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Here is Aaron Rodgers numbers from 2018:

*Games started 16

*6-9-1 was the teams record

*TD passes 25 (13th)

*INT's 2 (1st best out of starting QB's)

*Yards 4442 (6th)

*Comp% 62.3 (26th)

*Rating 97.6 (13th)

- The only thing that stands out great was the fact he only threw 2 INT's. The rest of that isn't impressive at all. If you put any other name on those numbers, people would say that QB is average, maybe above average. Because it is Rodgers people just blow it off. I get it's Rodgers but that is far from strong and I am sure Rodgers himself would admit he sucked at times last season. If Luck had a season like that and we went 6-9-1, most in here would want him traded and call him overrated. 

[King Colt]

On 5/23/2019 at 6:44 PM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Did you miss last season? Did you miss 2012-2014? This post is odd, sorry. Luck was the least sacked QB last season in the AFC and has won 10 games or more 4 times as a starter with rosters that were not loaded with talent on either side of the ball. 

Last season is not a career and no matter what stats are posted no one would put Luck in the top five-no one.

[conklincolt]

who is kurt warner and why should a colts fan, or any fan for that matter care what he thinks?