Colts 2024 Current Up to Date Roster + Cap Outlook. OP updated + on page 12(MERGE)

[w87r]

This thread will be for conversation pertaining to upcoming Colts Free Agent, possible extensions/restructures, cuts(as they often get spread amongst multiple threads). 

 

 

First state of business, is cap space for next year. 

 

2024 Cap Space:

Spotrac - $28,194,348(80 players shown under contract) ($2.3m estimated for draft)

OtC - $28,412,296(80 players shown under contract)($2.3m estimated for draft)

 

 

Re-signed

FA Signing

Draft Pick

 

2024 Roster:(under contract)(81)

Offense:(41)

QB:(3) Anthony Richardson, Joe Flacco, Sam Ehlinger

RB:(5) Johnathan Taylor, Evan Hull, Trey Sermon, Tyler Goodson, Zavier Scott

WR:(11) Michael Pittman, Alex Pierce, Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell, Ashton Dulin, Anthony Gould, DJ Montgomery, Juwann Winfree, Tyrie Cleveland, Ethan Fernea, Terrell Bynum

TE:(7) Mo Alie-Cox, Andrew Ogletree, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Will Mallory, Jordan Murray, Eric Tomlinson

OT:(4) Bernard Raimann, Braden Smith, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt

OG:(6) Quentin Nelson, Will Fries, Matt Goncalves, Josh Sills, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd

OC:(5) Ryan Kelly, Tanor Bortolini, Danny Pinter, Wesley French, Jack Anderson 

 

Defense:(37)

DE:(8) Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Laiatu Latu, Dayo Odeyingbo, Tyquan Lewis, Titus Leo, Isaiah Land, Genard Avery 

DT:(6) Deforest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Raekwon Davis, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Taven Bryan, Eric Johnson

LB:(8) EJ Speed, Zaire Franklin, Ronnie Harrison, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Segun Olubi, Liam Anderson, Austin Ajiake

CB:(7) Dallis Flowers, JuJu Brents, Kenny Moore, Jaylon Jones, Ameer Speed, Chris Lammons, Darrell Baker Jr

S:(8) Julian Blackmon, Nick Cross, Rodney Thomas, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Marcel Dabo, Kendell Brooks, Michael Tutsie

 

SPT:(3)

K: Matt Gay

P: Rigoberto Sanchez 

LS: Luke Rhodes 

 

 

Tracker:

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2024/3/10/24095824/2024-colts-free-agency-tracker-signing-contract-pittman-kenny-moore-grover-stewart-safety

 

Remaining Free Agents:

QB: Gardner Minshew(2yr $25m)

RB: Zach Moss(2yr $8m), Trey Sermon(1yr $1.055m)

WR: Michael Pittman(3yr $68m), Isaiah McKenzie 

OC: Danny Pinter($1.2225m, Jack Anderson (1yr $1.055m)

DE: Tyquan Lewis(2yr $12m), Jake Martin, Genard Avery(1yr $985k)

DT: Grover Stewart(3yr $39m), Taven Bryan(1yr $2.25m)

LB: Ronnie Harrison(1yr $1.152m)

CB: Kenny Moore(3yr $30m)

S: Julian Blackmon(1yr $)

P: Rigoberto Sanchez ($3yr $7.5m)

 

Signed with new team

 

FA Signings:

Joe Flacco(1yr $8.7m)

Raekwon Davis(2yr $14m)

 

 

Draft Picks:

1.15 - $3,034,753 - Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA

2.46 - **traded for #52, #142, #155

**2.52 - $1,219,297 - Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

***3.79 -$1,061,643 - Matt Goncalves, OL, Pittsburgh 

3.82 - ***traded w/ #191 for #79

4.117 - $984,721 - Tanor Bortolini, OC, Wisconsin 

**5.142 - $883,167 - Anthony Gould, WR, Oregon State 

5.151 - $879,060

**5.155 - $877,117

***6.191 - ***traded away

7.234 - $820,427

 

**Per drafttek

[w87r]

Free Agents:

QB: Gardner Minshew

RB: Zach Moss, Trey Sermon

WR: Michael Pittman, Isaiah McKenzie 

OC: Danny Pinter

DE: Tyquan Lewis, Jake Martin, Genard Avery

DT: Grover Stewart, Taven Bryan

CB: Kenny Moore

S: Julian Blackmon

P: Rigoberto Sanchez 

 

 

PFF article on top 100 FA and contract projections below.(5 Colts listed)

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2024-free-agent-rankings-free-agency

 

Quote

11. WR MICHAEL PITTMAN JR., INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Franchise Tag ($21.6m range)

Quote

41. CB KENNY MOORE II, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Contract Projection: Two years, $13.5 million ($6.75 million per year), $8 million total guaranteed

Quote

51. DI GROVER STEWART, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Contract Projection: Three years, $30 million ($10 million per year), $20 million total guaranteed

Quote

66. S JULIAN BLACKMON, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Contract Projection: Two years, $11.5 million ($5.75 million per year), $6 million total guaranteed

Quote

91. QB GARDNER MINSHEW, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Contract Projection: Two years, $17.5 million ($8.75 million per year), $9 million total guaranteed

 

That is a great in depth article well worth the view.

 

 

Potential Trades/Cuts: (cap savings)

Mo Alie-Cox ($5.92m)

 

 

Potential Restructures/ Extensions:

Ryan Kelly

Braden Smith

Deforest Buckner 

[w87r]

I just don't see anyway the Colts keep Mo next year, with (4) other active roster TEs, and a cap hit just below $6m for Alie-Cox.

 

The other (4) TEs have a combined cap hit of $4,644,007, next year.

[holeymoley99]

Will be interesting what happens with a few of the players : Moss,Lewis,Bryan.......Montgomery showed up last week today is big for his future with the ball club imo.  I also dont see MAC coming back unless S.S. really isnt sold on Woods as a player or individual.

[w87r]

3 minutes ago, holeymoley99 said:

Will be interesting what happens with a few of the players : Moss,Lewis,Bryan.......Montgomery showed up last week today is big for his future with the ball club imo.  I also dont see MAC coming back unless S.S. really isnt sold on Woods as a player or individual.

Those big (5) FAs tally up to around $49m(AAV), if those projections are close.

 

After signing future contracts we will probably be sitting somewhere in the $60-$65m range.

 

If we move on from Mo, that will bump it back up to the $65-$70m range.

 

Minus $49m(big 5)

 

 

Leaves $16-$21m left over. 

 

$6m range for draft picks.

 

 

***Something else to consider, once we hit 51 players, which will most likely be at the future contracts phase, the for every player we sign, one players salary drops below the top 51 salaries.

 

Something else, I used the AAV of the top 5 to get that $49m, more than likely the first year numbers will come in below the AAV.

 

 

One last thing, this is only off about the bare minimum of what the NFL has announced the cap will be north of. These are based right off around $240m cap, it could come in another $5-$10m higher.

 

Can free up a lot of money by extensions/restructures as well. A good $20m most likely. Will delve into those a little more over next couple weeks.

[DougDew]

Keep all of the players under rookie contracts and any vet that can be signed for $2M over the vet minimum.

 

Trade every player that makes over $10M.   

 

Figure out something to do with the players in the middle.

[Bravo]

CB and S need help in the worst way.

 

Then TE and WR and interior DL/OL.

 

If Richardson stays injury prone. It won’t matter anyway.

[Indyfan4life]

3 hours ago, Bravo said:

CB and S need help in the worst way.

 

Then TE and WR and interior DL/OL.

 

If Richardson stays injury prone. It won’t matter anyway.

Injury prone… Injury prone would be Anthony Gonzalez. Injury Prone is not Richardson getting slammed to the ground with his arm extended by a 300lb DT.
 

Can’t believe the absolute nonsense and narrative some people still say about this situation. Unlucky hits happen. Is Tua injury prone after what happened to him previously? No. 
 

Just stop this crap. 

[Bravo]

1 hour ago, Indyfan4life said:

Injury prone… Injury prone would be Anthony Gonzalez. Injury Prone is not Richardson getting slammed to the ground with his arm extended by a 300lb DT.
 

Can’t believe the absolute nonsense and narrative some people still say about this situation. Unlucky hits happen. Is Tua injury prone after what happened to him previously? No. 
 

Just stop this crap. 

 

Man you take that “crap” personal.

Dude had some injuries in college before his senior year.

 

Then he got injured in 3 out of the 4

games he played his rookie season. I guess you will change your tune if he gets hurt next year… or maybe you won’t.

 

[GoColts8818]

1 hour ago, Indyfan4life said:

Injury prone… Injury prone would be Anthony Gonzalez. Injury Prone is not Richardson getting slammed to the ground with his arm extended by a 300lb DT.
 

Can’t believe the absolute nonsense and narrative some people still say about this situation. Unlucky hits happen. Is Tua injury prone after what happened to him previously? No. 
 

Just stop this crap. 

If that was the only time he had been hurt I’d agree with you but he’s finished one game in his career.  To this point in his career he’s been injury prone.  He needs to prove he can stay healthy.  Not saying he can’t but it’s fair to be concerned about his ability to stay healthy at this point.

[w87r]

 

2024 Cap Space:

Spotrac - $73,027,449(based off $248,426,109 cap including 2023 rollover)

OtC - $72,317,587(based off $249,557,793 cap including 2023 rollover)

 

**Will just use $73m to start, then will go through what I think some restructures might look like. See where we might sit cap wise come time to resign our guys and FAs.**

 

 

 

Trades/Cuts: (cap savings)

Mo Alie-Cox ($5.92m)

 

Potential Restructures/ Extensions:(2024 current cap hit)

Ryan Kelly:($14,625,000)

Current deal - 1yr $14.625m,  $0 guaranteed 

New deal - 3yr $36m $22m guaranteed($12m AAV)

2024 - $10m guaranteed

2025 - $12m guaranteed

2026 - $14m non guaranteed 

2024 Savings - $4.625m

 

2024 Savings if Cut/Traded - $12.375m

2024 Dead Cap - $2.25m

 

Braden Smith:($16,683,000)

Current deal - 2yr $36.5m,  $0 guaranteed 

New deal - 3yr $51m,  $30m guaranteed($17m AAV)

2024 - $12m guaranteed 

2025 - $18m guaranteed 

2026 - $21m non guaranteed 

 

2024 Savings - $4.683m

 

2024 Savings if Cut/Traded - $10.6m-$13.6m

2024 Dead Cap - $3m-$6m

 

Deforest Buckner:($22,750,000)

Current deal - 1yr $22.75m,  $0 guaranteed 

New deal - 3yr $60m,  $37.5m guaranteed

2024 - $17.5m guaranteed

2025 - $20m guaranteed

2026 - $22.5m non guaranteed 

2024 Savings - $5.25m

 

2024 Savings if Cut/Traded - $20.25m

2024 Dead Cap - $2.5m

 

 

 

Current Cap Space: $73m

Cap Savings(extension): $14.588m(could save up to $46m by releasing/trading those 3)

Cap Savings(Alie-Cox):$5.92m

New Cap Space:$93.478m

 

Draft Pool: $7.4m($3m top 51)

 

 

Projected cap space going into signing our FA and outside FAs. If we were to restructure/extend those 3: $90.478m

 

Projected cap space going into signing our FA and outside FAs. If we were to release/trade those 3: $121.9m

 

 

 

What's your thoughts on the extensions?

Would you rather go that route or move on, stay pat?

 

[Superman]

15 hours ago, w87r said:

What's your thoughts on the extensions?

Would you rather go that route or move on, stay pat?

 

No interest in extending or renegotiating any of those three guys, IMO. I think Kelly might be done, I don't know what's up with Smith's injury, and I'd rather let DeFo play out his final year than move his cap hit around again. 

 

To me, we're still at least another draft class away from being in position to make a leap. Sure we can probably compete in the division, but I think our win/loss record this year is a little bit of fools' gold. The NFL has a ton of parity right now, we're playing a third place schedule, there have been an insane amount of QB injuries and some truly awful QB play across the league. This year's 8-10 win team is probably the equivalent of a 5-7 win team in previous seasons. 

 

What I think the Colts should do is add a WR, add some OL competition and depth, and keep developing the young talent at QB, WR, and TE. On defense, much of it depends on whether Bradley is back... but even if he is, we need to restock at LB, and should keep trying to add DL/pass rush. If we make a change at DC, that could mean vets like Moore and Stewart leave in FA, and maybe we try to get some value for DeFo rather than carrying him at $23m. I don't mind being aggressive to add a WR or DE, but the roster needs a lot of players, so I think we're still too far away to try to force our way into serious contention. And we still need to see proof that we have the QB right (I like what we've seen so far, but the sample size is tiny, and there's a question about durability). 

 

For me, the re-signs should be Pittman, Pinter, Lewis, Blackmon, Sanchez. Outside of Pittman, I don't really want to commit major cap money in future years. I'd be willing to part ways with Kelly and MAC. I love DeFo but if we can get a good pick, I'd be okay with trading him, but then I'd want to keep Stewart. Smith, it's all about health.

 

Minshew, Moore, Moss, are the other notable FAs, and I'm assuming they're gone no matter what.

 

2025 is the year to be more aggressive, IMO. I might feel differently if we had seen more from Richardson, but even then, I think our roster still needs a lot of work and the benefit of another draft class before we're ready to get after it.

[1959Colts]

I hope they resign Tyquan Lewis and try to find a bigger, more mobile backup QB  

[w87r]

55 minutes ago, Superman said:

No interest in extending or renegotiating any of those three guys, IMO. I think Kelly might be done, I don't know what's up with Smith's injury, and I'd rather let DeFo play out his final year than move his cap hit around again. 

Good response.

 

Yeah, I'm kinda right there with you on this, just presenting possible ways to create more cap space this season. (Not that we even necessarily need it)

 

I think Kelly is fine, he missed a few games, but has graded out as a top 10 Center all season. It's all about if he wants to continue to play to me.

 

I'm definitely concerned about Smith and his injury(ies).

 

 

Wouldn't mind rewarding Buck though, good either way. If we did decide to trade I think we would get nice compensation.

 

 

 

Going back to Smith, depending on that injury and how the teams feels about it moving forward, he cut be released or traded also, and save $10.6m(pre June 1st)-$13.6m(post June 1st) in cap space in 2024.

 

 

 

Side Bar: What's your thoughts on the actual dollar amounts and how realistic that might be?

[w87r]

28 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

I hope they resign Tyquan Lewis and try to find a bigger, more mobile backup QB  

He is playing good ball this year. Think he is currently grading out as #34 DE.

 

2 per team puts the starter ranks down to #64.

 

We have 3 in top 40.

 

Definitely would throw another $3-$4m at him.

 

Talent is definitely there, always been the injuries holding him back.

[w87r]

A lot will also go into whether Gus stays or not.

 

 

There is good arguments both ways on that decision. Will be interesting.

 

 

If Gus does go, I imagine there will be some good turnover on that side of the ball, depending what scheme we move to.

[Solid84]

58 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

No interest in extending or renegotiating any of those three guys, IMO. I think Kelly might be done, I don't know what's up with Smith's injury, and I'd rather let DeFo play out his final year than move his cap hit around again. 

 

To me, we're still at least another draft class away from being in position to make a leap. Sure we can probably compete in the division, but I think our win/loss record this year is a little bit of fools' gold. The NFL has a ton of parity right now, we're playing a third place schedule, there have been an insane amount of QB injuries and some truly awful QB play across the league. This year's 8-10 win team is probably the equivalent of a 5-7 win team in previous seasons. 

 

What I think the Colts should do is add a WR, add some OL competition and depth, and keep developing the young talent at QB, WR, and TE. On defense, much of it depends on whether Bradley is back... but even if he is, we need to restock at LB, and should keep trying to add DL/pass rush. If we make a change at DC, that could mean vets like Moore and Stewart leave in FA, and maybe we try to get some value for DeFo rather than carrying him at $23m. I don't mind being aggressive to add a WR or DE, but the roster needs a lot of players, so I think we're still too far away to try to force our way into serious contention. And we still need to see proof that we have the QB right (I like what we've seen so far, but the sample size is tiny, and there's a question about durability). 

 

For me, the re-signs should be Pittman, Pinter, Lewis, Blackmon, Sanchez. Outside of Pittman, I don't really want to commit major cap money in future years. I'd be willing to part ways with Kelly and MAC. I love DeFo but if we can get a good pick, I'd be okay with trading him, but then I'd want to keep Stewart. Smith, it's all about health.

 

Minshew, Moore, Moss, are the other notable FAs, and I'm assuming they're gone no matter what.

 

2025 is the year to be more aggressive, IMO. I might feel differently if we had seen more from Richardson, but even then, I think our roster still needs a lot of work and the benefit of another draft class before we're ready to get after it.

Great post!

 

Regarding Smith I think health may be the primary concern this offseason, but Raimann is eligible for a contract in ‘25 and if he keeps playing at top 10 tackle level he’s getting $20+m as an LT. I don’t think we’re keeping Raimann, Nelson AND Smith with those contracts.
 

Is it too early to think about moving Smith and gamble Freeland with an offseason of S&C can step up?

 

It’s only an option of course if Ballard thinks he can get a good pick for him and the cap ends up being an issue in ‘24 which is probably unlikely. 

[Superman]

46 minutes ago, w87r said:

Side Bar: What's your thoughts on the actual dollar amounts and how realistic that might be?

 

I don't think extending Kelly or Smith would be on the table. The numbers somewhat make sense if they were FAs.

 

The DeFo extension makes sense, I think he could argue for slightly more but it would be close.

[GoColts8818]

Just now, Superman said:

 

I don't think extending Kelly or Smith would be on the table. The numbers somewhat make sense if they were FAs.

 

The DeFo extension makes sense, I think he could argue for slightly more but it would be close.

I don’t think so either.  Colts have legit injury questions about Kelly and Smith and in Kelly’s case he might decide for them by just retiring when his contract is up.  Worth mentioning most olineman don’t last as long as other positions outside of running backs.

 

As for Buckner I think it may depend on two things, his age.  He’s not old but he’s not young either.  Also, what direction do the Colts think they are going on defense.  Personally I am ready to move on from Bradley so if the Colts do Buckner might not fit your new defense anymore depending on what kind of DC the Colts hire.  
 

I think the Colts have their hands full with enough legit will be free agents that extending guys under contract will probably be on the back burner unless they know they are going to keep someone and it would free up capspace to keep or get other guys they want.

[Superman]

37 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Great post!

 

Regarding Smith I think health may be the primary concern this offseason, but Raimann is eligible for a contract in ‘25 and if he keeps playing at top 10 tackle level he’s getting $20+m as an LT. I don’t think we’re keeping Raimann, Nelson AND Smith with those contracts.
 

Is it too early to think about moving Smith and gamble Freeland with an offseason of S&C can step up?

 

It’s only an option of course if Ballard thinks he can get a good pick for him and the cap ends up being an issue in ‘24 which is probably unlikely. 

 

I think we can handle three OL at big money, but they have to be playing at a high level. If Smith misses half the season with nagging injuries in 2024 then I don't think he's back in 2025.

 

We haven't heard much of anything about Smith's injury right now, so I don't even know what to think about it. I don't see us handing the keys to Freeland in 2024 though.

[GoColts8818]

Just now, Superman said:

 

I think we can handle three OL at big money, but they have to be playing at a high level. If Smith misses half the season with nagging injuries in 2024 then I don't think he's back in 2025.

 

We haven't heard much of anything about Smith's injury right now, so I don't even know what to think about it. I don't see us handing the keys to Freeland in 2024 though.

I also don’t think the Colts are going to pull the plug on him after this injury filled season, especially with next year being the last year of his deal anyways.  I think they like Smith and wouldn’t mind extending him again but you are right he’s going to have to be healthy and I think the smart move is to use 2024 to make the determination.  It also buys Freeland another year to get stronger and or go in a different direction at tackle.

[w87r]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

We haven't heard much of anything about Smith's injury right now, so I don't even know what to think about it. I don't see us handing the keys to Freeland in 2024 though.

I didn't like that we brought Veldheer in right after it. Made me feel it was more serious than a few games. I actually liked that we brought in Veldheer though, just not what it made me think it meant for Smith.

[Superman]

Just now, GoColts8818 said:

I also don’t think the Colts are going to pull the plug on him after this injury filled season, especially with next year being the last year of his deal anyways.  I think they like Smith and wouldn’t mind extending him again but you are right he’s going to have to be healthy and I think the smart move is to use 2024 to make the determination.  It also buys Freeland another year to get stronger and or go in a different direction at tackle.

 

Smith expires after 2025, just FYI.

 

3 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I don’t think so either.  Colts have legit injury questions about Kelly and Smith and in Kelly’s case he might decide for them by just retiring when his contract is up.  Worth mentioning most olineman don’t last as long as other positions outside of running backs.

 

As for Buckner I think it may depend on two things, his age.  He’s not old but he’s not young either.  Also, what direction do the Colts think they are going on defense.  Personally I am ready to move on from Bradley so if the Colts do Buckner might not fit your new defense anymore depending on what kind of DC the Colts hire.  
 

I think the Colts have their hands full with enough legit will be free agents that extending guys under contract will probably be on the back burner unless they know they are going to keep someone and it would free up capspace to keep or get other guys they want.

 

We'll see on Kelly. He's been fine, I don't know if there's anything to the noise that he might retire, but it's something to keep in mind. I also wonder if we could just upgrade the position. There are some decent FAs that might be available, at guard and center.

 

Buckner is pretty scheme agnostic, IMO. He's played in 3-4 and 4-3, and is always good. He can play 5 tech, he just won't have the sack production. But we're not going to a 3-4 as long as Ballard is the GM, so that's not really a factor. Even if we change DCs -- and we probably won't -- Buckner should fit. For me, the question is whether the team timeline will make sense for both sides.

[Solid84]

57 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think we can handle three OL at big money, but they have to be playing at a high level. If Smith misses half the season with nagging injuries in 2024 then I don't think he's back in 2025.

 

We haven't heard much of anything about Smith's injury right now, so I don't even know what to think about it. I don't see us handing the keys to Freeland in 2024 though.

Ours is already the highest paid Oline. $50.5m this season on the Oline. Next season that jumps to $63m, because Nelsons contract kicks in. 
 

In ‘25 Kelly is off the books, but Raimann could jump $19m which would get us to $65m without a Center and a RG. I know the caps goes up, but that seems steep?

 

Edit: Sportrac numbers by the way. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, Solid84 said:

Ours is already the highest paid Oline. $50.5m this season on the Oline. Next season that jumps to $63m, because Nelsons contract kicks in. 
 

In ‘25 Kelly is off the books, but Raimann could jump $19m which would get us to $65m without a Center and a RG. I know the caps goes up, but that seems steep?

 

Edit: Sportrac numbers by the way. 

 

I don't mind having the highest paid OL, if they're playing well. Which means we need to start thinking about replacements for Kelly and Smith.

 

Good OL play can be a force multiplier, and can separate us from other teams. There's a lot of bad OL play around the league. If it's a strength for us, I'm okay with doubling down on it.

[Solid84]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't mind having the highest paid OL, if they're playing well. Which means we need to start thinking about replacements for Kelly and Smith.

 

Good OL play can be a force multiplier, and can separate us from other teams. There's a lot of bad OL play around the league. If it's a strength for us, I'm okay with doubling down on it.

I agree, I just don’t feel our Oline is good enough as is for the price we pay.
 

Pass protection is solid, but the run blocking isn’t consistent enough and not good enough when looking at the season as a whole. 

 

I guess we have to account for, well, less than stellar QB play this season. That puts extra pressure on the run game. Will AR take some of the pressure off the Oline? If yes, does that justify spending big on the Oline when it’s not their doing?

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I agree, I just don’t feel our Oline is good enough as is for the price we pay.
 

Pass protection is solid, but the run blocking isn’t consistent enough and not good enough when looking at the season as a whole. 

 

I guess we have to account for, well, less than stellar QB play this season. That puts extra pressure on the run game. Will AR take some of the pressure off the Oline? If yes, does that justify spending big on the Oline when it’s not their doing?

 

My evaluation of the OL isn't based on the results right now. I'm gonna be rewatching some in the coming weeks, but like you said, the QB play, the changing of RBs, injuries, and running a lot of RPO has a lot to do with the rushing production. Still, I felt early in the season that we weren't getting a lot of push in short yardage situations, and while it's been better at times, it's still not where it was when the OL was at its apex a couple years ago.

 

What I'm not worried about is paying a lot for the OL just because people don't like having a highly paid OL. If we have good, reliable OL, then it's worth the money. We can't have five guys at the top of the market, but I think we can handle three for sure.

[RollerColt]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

No interest in extending or renegotiating any of those three guys, IMO. I think Kelly might be done, I don't know what's up with Smith's injury, and I'd rather let DeFo play out his final year than move his cap hit around again. 

 

To me, we're still at least another draft class away from being in position to make a leap. Sure we can probably compete in the division, but I think our win/loss record this year is a little bit of fools' gold. The NFL has a ton of parity right now, we're playing a third place schedule, there have been an insane amount of QB injuries and some truly awful QB play across the league. This year's 8-10 win team is probably the equivalent of a 5-7 win team in previous seasons. 

 

What I think the Colts should do is add a WR, add some OL competition and depth, and keep developing the young talent at QB, WR, and TE. On defense, much of it depends on whether Bradley is back... but even if he is, we need to restock at LB, and should keep trying to add DL/pass rush. If we make a change at DC, that could mean vets like Moore and Stewart leave in FA, and maybe we try to get some value for DeFo rather than carrying him at $23m. I don't mind being aggressive to add a WR or DE, but the roster needs a lot of players, so I think we're still too far away to try to force our way into serious contention. And we still need to see proof that we have the QB right (I like what we've seen so far, but the sample size is tiny, and there's a question about durability). 

 

For me, the re-signs should be Pittman, Pinter, Lewis, Blackmon, Sanchez. Outside of Pittman, I don't really want to commit major cap money in future years. I'd be willing to part ways with Kelly and MAC. I love DeFo but if we can get a good pick, I'd be okay with trading him, but then I'd want to keep Stewart. Smith, it's all about health.

 

Minshew, Moore, Moss, are the other notable FAs, and I'm assuming they're gone no matter what.

 

2025 is the year to be more aggressive, IMO. I might feel differently if we had seen more from Richardson, but even then, I think our roster still needs a lot of work and the benefit of another draft class before we're ready to get after it.

Do you think we’ll have a regression next season? Maybe lose more games compared to this year?

[ImissPeyton18]

On 12/24/2023 at 7:48 PM, Indyfan4life said:

Injury prone… Injury prone would be Anthony Gonzalez. Injury Prone is not Richardson getting slammed to the ground with his arm extended by a 300lb DT.
 

Can’t believe the absolute nonsense and narrative some people still say about this situation. Unlucky hits happen. Is Tua injury prone after what happened to him previously? No. 
 

Just stop this crap. 

I don't believe this is crap. He appeared in 5 games I do believe. How many of these games did he finish under center?

If the coaching staff continues to have him used as a runner, he will get hurt. He is not alusive. He is a big target. How many times has the ravens missed their signal caller by the end of the year? Maybe the word injury prone bothers you. Let's change the name to reckless use of company property. Either way, its all the same.

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

Do you think we’ll have a regression next season? Maybe lose more games compared to this year?

 

If we don't improve our roster in specific areas, and if we can't get more dynamic playmaking from the QB, then yeah. Assume we're playing a 2nd place schedule, so we get the Browns, Broncos, and Cowboys (instead of Raiders, Pats, Rams). We're playing the NFC North instead of the NFC South. And we can still expect some growing pains from Richardson. Plus, unless something significant changes on defense, we can't stop slightly above average QBs, much less really good QBs. If the playoffs started right now, we'd go to Miami, and that could easily be another 70 point game from the Dolphins...

 

It might sound like I'm being negative, and that's not really the case. I just think we've played a favorable schedule and caught some good teams at bad times (Ravens especially). At the beginning of the season, I thought we had a questionable roster that would be relying on a lot of young players. Some of them have done well (Raimann especially), others have had some rough games. But this was always gonna be a reset/evaluation season, and that's not just about how many games we win. It's been a huge success already, but IMO if anyone thinks this is a good team that's knocking on the door to contending, they're fooling themselves.

[RollerColt]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

If we don't improve our roster in specific areas, and if we can't get more dynamic playmaking from the QB, then yeah. Assume we're playing a 2nd place schedule, so we get the Browns, Broncos, and Cowboys (instead of Raiders, Pats, Rams). We're playing the NFC North instead of the NFC South. And we can still expect some growing pains from Richardson. Plus, unless something significant changes on defense, we can't stop slightly above average QBs, much less really good QBs. If the playoffs started right now, we'd go to Miami, and that could easily be another 70 point game from the Dolphins...

 

It might sound like I'm being negative, and that's not really the case. I just think we've played a favorable schedule and caught some good teams at bad times (Ravens especially). At the beginning of the season, I thought we had a questionable roster that would be relying on a lot of young players. Some of them have done well (Raimann especially), others have had some rough games. But this was always gonna be a reset/evaluation season, and that's not just about how many games we win. It's been a huge success already, but IMO if anyone thinks this is a good team that's knocking on the door to contending, they're fooling themselves.

Thanks for responding. That’s pretty much how I’m feeling at the moment. It was nice to go on a bit of a run, but after the Bengals game it kind of snapped me back to reality on how far we are roster wise. 
 

And yeah, considering Richardson didn’t have much of an opportunity to get in game experience, we’ll have to consider next year his part 2 of his rookie season. 

[w87r]

To continue exercise, here is the numbers for projected Franchise Tag/Transition, RFA/ERFA, Vet Minimums:

 

 

 

Franchise Tag/ Transition Tenders:

QB: $35,952,000/ $31,158,000

DE: $23,342,000/ $20,137,000

LB: $21,922,000/ $18,590,000

OL: $21,720,000/ $19,735,000

WR: $21,664,000/ $19,398,000

DT: $19,749,000/ $15,810,000

CB: $18,410,000/ $15,885,000

S: $17,220,000/ $13,949,000

RB: $12,419,000/ $10,103,000

TE: $12,366,000/ $10,561,000

ST: $5,814,000/ $5,271,000

 

*Only one of these has relevancy for the Colts this off-season. WR, which clearly will be negotiating tool when it comes to a Pittman contract.

 

RFA Tenders:

First Round: $6,464,000

Second Round: $4,633,000

Right of First Refusal: $2,828,000

 

 

Veterans Minimums:(years of service - $minimum)

0 - $750k

1 - $870k

2 - $940k

3 - $1.01m

4 - $1.08m

5 - $1.08m

6 - $1.08m

7+ - $1.165m

 

 

 

How it all relates to Colts FA:((years of service) my estimated contract)

Free Agents:

QB:

Gardner Minshew - 

2 year, $17.5 million ($8.75 million per year), $9 million total guaranteed *see OP

2024: $7.5m

2025: $10m

Kellen Mond(PS)(3) - $1.01m

RB:

Zach Moss -

2 year, $8m ($4m guaranteed)

2024: $4m guaranteed 

2025: $4m non guaranteed 

Trey Sermon(3) - $1.01m

Tyler Goodson(2) - $940k(signed for $915k already)

Zavier Scott(PS)(1) - $870k

WR:

Michael Pittman - Franchise Tag($21.664m/ or Extension)

My contract projection:

5 year, $101.08m, $25m SB, $56.08m guaranteed

2024 - $6.08m guaranteed ($26.08m in cash)

2025 - $20m guaranteed 

2026 - $20m guaranteed 

2027 -$27m non guaranteed($10m dead cap)

2028 - $28m non guaranteed ($5m dead cap)

DJ Montgomery(5) - $1.08m(signed $985k already)

Isaiah McKenzie - he's gone 

KJ Hamler(PS)(4) - $1.08m

Juwann Winfree(PS)(5) - $1.08m

Tyrie Cleveland(PS)(4) - $1.08m

Jaydon Mickens(PS)(7+) - $1.165m

Ethan Fernea(PS)(2) - $870k

TE:

Jordan Murray(PS)(1) - $870k

OT:

Jared Veldheer(PS)(7+) - $1.165m(might re-retire)

OG:

Arlington Hambright(PS)(4) - $1.08m

Ike Boettger(PS)(6) - 1.08m

OC:

Danny Pinter(4) - $1.08m

Jack Anderson(3) - $1.01m

DE:

Tyquan Lewis -

2 year, $8m, $4m guaranteed

2024 - $4m  guaranteed 

2025 - $4m  non guaranteed 

Jake Martin(6) - $1.08m

Genard Avery(6) - $1.08m

Derek Rivers(PS)(7+) - $1.165m

Zach McCloud(PS)(1) - $870k

DT:

Grover Stewart -

3 year, $30 million ($10 million per year), $20 million total guaranteed **see OP

Taven Bryan(6) - $1.08m

McTelvin Agim(PS)(4) - $1.08m

LB:

Sequn Olubi - ERFA -

Cameron McGrone - ERFA -

Liam Anderson(PS)(1) - $870k

CB:

Kenny Moore -

2 year, $13.5 million ($6.75 million per year), $8 million total guaranteed ** see OP

Chris Lammons(6) - $1.08m

Tony Brown - he's gone

Darren Hall(PS)(3) - $1.01m

Isaac Taylor- Stuart(PS)(2) - $870k

S:

Julian Blackmon -

2 year, $11.5 million ($5.75 million per year), $6 million total guaranteed ** see OP

Trevor Denbow - ERFA -

Marcel Dabo(PS)(1) $870k

Tyreque Jones(PS)(1) $870k

P:

Rigoberto Sanchez - $1yr $3m

 

 

 

 

*Not saying we should do all this, just laying out what it might look like.

 

Also, Colts have 41 players, so once they sign 10 players, about $800k will come off of each additional signing after that. As a player will drop below the top 51 level.

[AustexColt]

Resign these players (unless if their demand is outrageous): Gardner Minshew, Pittman, Kenny Moore, Rigoberto, Danny Pinter, Tyquan Lewis. 

 

This will be the real first draft by Shane Steichen and his staff. Let him drive the decisions while Ballard just executes the choices. Shane is alot sharper on how to redesign a SB team than Ballard. We have good scouts so Ballard needs to rein-in his ego and let Shane do his thing.

[w87r]

3 hours ago, AustexColt said:

Resign these players (unless if their demand is outrageous): Gardner Minshew, Pittman, Kenny Moore, Rigoberto, Danny Pinter, Tyquan Lewis. 

 

This will be the real first draft by Shane Steichen and his staff. Let him drive the decisions while Ballard just executes the choices. Shane is alot sharper on how to redesign a SB team than Ballard. We have good scouts so Ballard needs to rein-in his ego and let Shane do his thing.

I don't expect too much offensive turnover, just a few additions, but I could see a good amount of turnover on the other side of the ball if they move on from Gus.

 

 

 

Also, a lot of those practice squad and back end of the roster players will be signed to minimum deals(at least 20 from this list), got to get the roster back up to 90 from 41. Practice Squad usually sign future contracts as soon as our season ends. We probably won't keep all of them, but will keep a large chuck of them.

 

I will run through who I think we will retain and what the cap space will look like at that point  See what a somewhat realistic roster will look and cost heading into Free Agency.

[JediXMan]

I like the running style of Goodson.

[w87r]

21 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

I like the running style of Goodson.

Even better $25k below the new minimum for next year, I had him down for.

 

Will update that.

[w87r]

22 minutes ago, JediXMan said:

I like the running style of Goodson.

OTC also show DJ Montgomery getting a 2nd year when he was signed to active roster. $985k

 

Saving almost $10k off of the 1.08m new minimum for 24.

 

So with those (2) moves saved $40k on cap space more than if we would of just waited and signed after season was over. Not very much but a small detail.

[richard pallo]

4 hours ago, w87r said:

To continue exercise, here is the numbers for projected Franchise Tag/Transition, RFA/ERFA, Vet Minimums:

 

 

 

Franchise Tag/ Transition Tenders:

QB: $35,952,000/ $31,158,000

DE: $23,342,000/ $20,137,000

LB: $21,922,000/ $18,590,000

OL: $21,720,000/ $19,735,000

WR: $21,664,000/ $19,398,000

DT: $19,749,000/ $15,810,000

CB: $18,410,000/ $15,885,000

S: $17,220,000/ $13,949,000

RB: $12,419,000/ $10,103,000

TE: $12,366,000/ $10,561,000

ST: $5,814,000/ $5,271,000

 

*Only one of these has relevancy for the Colts this off-season. WR, which clearly will be negotiating tool when it comes to a Pittman contract.

 

RFA Tenders:

First Round: $6,464,000

Second Round: $4,633,000

Right of First Refusal: $2,828,000

 

 

Veterans Minimums:(years of service - $minimum)

0 - $750k

1 - $870k

2 - $940k

3 - $1.01m

4 - $1.08m

5 - $1.08m

6 - $1.08m

7+ - $1.165m

 

 

 

How it all relates to Colts FA:((years of service) my estimated contract)

Free Agents:

QB:

Gardner Minshew - 

2 year, $17.5 million ($8.75 million per year), $9 million total guaranteed *see OP

2024: $7.5m

2025: $10m

Kellen Mond(PS)(3) - $1.01m

RB:

Zach Moss -

2 year, $8m ($4m guaranteed)

2024: $4m guaranteed 

2025: $4m non guaranteed 

Trey Sermon(3) - $1.01m

Tyler Goodson(2) - $940k(signed for $915k already)

Zavier Scott(PS)(1) - $870k

WR:

Michael Pittman - Franchise Tag($21.664m/ or Extension)

My contract projection:

5 year, $101.08m, $25m SB, $56.08m guaranteed

2024 - $6.08m guaranteed ($26.08m in cash)

2025 - $20m guaranteed 

2026 - $20m guaranteed 

2027 -$27m non guaranteed($10m dead cap)

2028 - $28m non guaranteed ($5m dead cap)

DJ Montgomery(5) - $1.08m(signed $985k already)

Isaiah McKenzie - he's gone 

KJ Hamler(PS)(4) - $1.08m

Juwann Winfree(PS)(5) - $1.08m

Tyrie Cleveland(PS)(4) - $1.08m

Jaydon Mickens(PS)(7+) - $1.165m

Ethan Fernea(PS)(2) - $870k

TE:

Jordan Murray(PS)(1) - $870k

OT:

Jared Veldheer(PS)(7+) - $1.165m(might re-retire)

OG:

Arlington Hambright(PS)(4) - $1.08m

Ike Boettger(PS)(6) - 1.08m

OC:

Danny Pinter(4) - $1.08m

Jack Anderson(3) - $1.01m

DE:

Tyquan Lewis -

2 year, $8m, $4m guaranteed

2024 - $4m  guaranteed 

2025 - $4m  non guaranteed 

Jake Martin(6) - $1.08m

Genard Avery(6) - $1.08m

Derek Rivers(PS)(7+) - $1.165m

Zach McCloud(PS)(1) - $870k

DT:

Grover Stewart -

3 year, $30 million ($10 million per year), $20 million total guaranteed **see OP

Taven Bryan(6) - $1.08m

McTelvin Agim(PS)(4) - $1.08m

LB:

Sequn Olubi - ERFA -

Cameron McGrone - ERFA -

Liam Anderson(PS)(1) - $840k

CB:

Kenny Moore -

2 year, $13.5 million ($6.75 million per year), $8 million total guaranteed ** see OP

Chris Lammons(6) - $1.08m

Tony Brown - he's gone

Darren Hall(PS)(3) - $1.01m

Isaac Taylor- Stuart(PS)(2) - $870k

S:

Julian Blackmon -

2 year, $11.5 million ($5.75 million per year), $6 million total guaranteed ** see OP

Trevor Denbow - ERFA -

Marcel Dabo(PS)(1) $870k

Tyreque Jones(PS)(1) $870k

P:

Rigoberto Sanchez - $1yr $3m

 

 

 

 

*Not saying we should do all this, just laying out what it might look like.

 

Also, Colts have 41 players, so once they sign 10 players, about $800k will come off of each additional signing after that. As a player will drop below the top 51 level.

Thanks!  Two questions for you.  Under Pittman you have franchise tag 21.6m but you are projecting over 35m.  Is that a mistake?  Also regarding your projected contract for Pittman are the number’s shown for the contract years the cap hits for those years?  

[w87r]

2024 Cap Space:

Spotrac - $72,921,060(including 2023 rollover)

OtC - $72,317,587(including 2023 rollover)

 

Players under contract - 43

 

Free Agents:(Retained)

QB:

Kellen Mond(PS)(3) - $1.01m

RB:

Trey Sermon(3) - $1.01m

Zavier Scott(PS)(1) - $870k

WR:

Michael Pittman - Franchise Tag($21.664m/ or Extension)

My contract projection:

5 year, $101.08m, $25m SB, $56.08m guaranteed

2024 - $6.08m guaranteed ($26.08m in cash)

2025 - $20m guaranteed 

2026 - $20m guaranteed 

2027 -$27m non guaranteed($10m dead cap)

2028 - $28m non guaranteed ($5m dead cap)

KJ Hamler(PS)(4) - $1.08m

Juwann Winfree(PS)(5) - $1.08m

Tyrie Cleveland(PS)(4) - $1.08m

Ethan Fernea(PS)(2) - $870k

TE:

Jordan Murray(PS)(1) - $870k

OG:

Arlington Hambright(PS)(4) - $1.08m

Ike Boettger(PS)(6) - 1.08m

OC:

Danny Pinter(4) - $1.08m

Jack Anderson(3) - $1.01m

DE:

Tyquan Lewis -

2 year, $8m, $4m guaranteed

2024 - $4m guaranteed 

2025 - $4m non guaranteed 

Jake Martin(6) - $1.08m

Genard Avery(6) - $1.08m

DT:

Grover Stewart -

3 year, $30 million ($10 million per year), $20 million total guaranteed **see OP

Taven Bryan(6) - $1.08m

McTelvin Agim(PS)(4) - $1.08m

LB:

Sequn Olubi - ERFA - $750k

Cameron McGrone - ERFA - $750k

Liam Anderson(PS)(1) - $870k

CB:

Kenny Moore -

2 year, $13.5 million ($6.75 million per year), $8 million total guaranteed ** see OP

Chris Lammons(6) - $1.08m

Darren Hall(PS)(3) - $1.01m

Isaac Taylor- Stuart(PS)(2) - $870k

S:

Trevor Denbow - ERFA - $870k

Marcel Dabo(PS)(1) $870k

Tyreque Jones(PS)(1) $870k

P:

Rigoberto Sanchez - $1yr $3m

 

Free Agents:(Let Walk)

Zach Moss - let test market, may be back, small chance

Jared Veldheer(retire)

Isaiah McKenzie - he's gone

Tony Brown - he's gone

Julian Blackmon - let test market, may re-sign 

Jaydon Mickens

Gardner Minshew - signs as starter/bridge somewhere 

Derek Rivers

Zach McCloud 

 

 

 

New Roster after Signing our own FAs;

2024 Roster:(under contract)(re-signed)

 

Offense:(37)

QB: Anthony Richardson, Sam Ehlinger, Kellen Mond

RB: Johnathan Taylor, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson, Trey Sermon,  Zavier Scott

WR: Michael Pittman, Alex Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, KJ Hamler, Juwann Winfree, Tyrie Cleveland, Ethan Fernea 

TE: Mo Alie-Cox, Andrew Ogletree, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Will Mallory, Jordan Murray

OT: Bernard Raimann, Braden Smith, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt

OG: Quentin Nelson, Will Fries, Josh Sills, Arlington Hambright, Ike Boettger 

OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French, Danny Pinter, Jack Anderson 

 

Defense:(34)

DE: Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Tyquan Lewis, Titus Leo, Isaiah Land, Genard Avery, Jake Martin

DT: Deforest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Taven Bryan, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Eric Johnson, McTelvin Agim

LB: EJ Speed, Zaire Franklin, Grand Stuard, Sequn Olubi, Cameron McGrone, Liam Anderson 

CB: Dallis Flowers, JuJu Brents, Kenny Moore, Jaylon Jones, Ameer Speed, Chris Lammons, Darren Hall, Isaac Taylor-Stuart

S: Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Marcel Dabo, Tyreque Jones 

 

SPT:(3)

K: Matt Gay

P: Rigoberto Sanchez 

LS: Luke Rhodes 

 

 

Signed 31 own FA's for total: $54,210,000

Top 51 Cap Hit: $34,200,000

(23 x $870k = $20.01m) - players contracts fall under top 51 *** number will probably be up over $900k on most players that drop below, so this will increase space a little more than projections below 

 

 

Players Under Contract:(74)

 

New Cap Space: $38m - $39m

Draft Pick Allotment:$7-$8m($3m top 51)

 

 

We'll still be able to free up another $5.92m if we decide to move on from Alie-Cox.

 

 

Seems like a lot, but the team didn't coach up all these guys on the practice squad so they can move on. They hope they can get most back for another run next year.

 

This leaves (16) spots for draft picks/UDFA and FA acquisitions.

 

 

Can always churn back end of 90 man roster, if they need more room.

 

 

 

Thoughts?

[w87r]

32 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Thanks!  Two questions for you.  Under Pittman you have franchise tag 21.6m but you are projecting over 35m.  Is that a mistake?  Also regarding your projected contract for Pittman are the number’s shown for the contract years the cap hits for those years?  

 

2 minutes ago, w87r said:

Michael Pittman - Franchise Tag($21.664m/ or Extension)

My contract projection:

5 year, $101.08m, $25m SB, $56.08m guaranteed

2024 - $6.08m guaranteed ($26.08m in cash)

2025 - $20m guaranteed 

2026 - $20m guaranteed 

2027 -$27m non guaranteed($10m dead cap)

2028 - $28m non guaranteed ($5m dead cap)

1. What's $35m? You talking about the QB tender amount?

 

2. Yes, essentially that is the year to year breakdown. Without breaking it into base, SB, roster bonus, etc...

 

2024 is:

$1.08m base + $5m Pro rated SB totaling $6.08m for the season. He would get paid $26.08m cash though as he would receive all $25m of SB up front.

 

 

I do need to go back and reconfigure my math on how much the retained FAs used.

 

Think I did $1.008m, instead of $1.08m, same with the $1.01m contracts