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Colts 2024 Current Up to Date Roster + Cap Outlook. OP updated + on page 12(MERGE)


w87r

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Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Thdy had over 60 million so a stupid question how is is only 79 million with a 30 million increase? Or is that 30 million over more then one year?

Yeah, it's $30m increase from last year's cap number, not $30m increase from what space they currently had.

 

Big difference between Spotrac and OtC currently, is:

 

OtC has performance based salary increases already calculated and have us with 5 additional players as well.

 

Spotrac has yet to update it.

 

So I would work off of the $72.3m number right now.

 

 

Either way, it is great to have more funds to go after some guys 

 

 

Sorry for asking about your $100m in other thread. Didn't see this post yet.

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9 minutes ago, w87r said:

Updated OP with new Salary Cap figure and available cap space.

 

 

Also here is the updated roster/ draft picks as it sits currently. Bout time for what might be my favorite time of the season. 

 

 

 

2024 Cap Space:

Spotrac - $79,250,395(including 2023 rollover)(57 players shown under contract)

OtC - $72,323,573(including 2023 rollover)(62 players shown under contract; which is what I have)

 

 

Will keep roster updated throughout the offseason.

 

 

*Spotrac hasn't updated increased salaries based of performance.

Makes me think Ballard and the other GM’s were holding off on resigning players until after they found out the updated cap numbers.  Hopefully we get some players extended now.

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Just now, richard pallo said:

Makes me think Ballard and the other GM’s were holding off on resigning players until after they found out the updated cap numbers.  Hopefully we get some players extended now.

Probably definitely played into it a little bit.

 

I'm sure players and agents were waiting for those as well.

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Franchise Tag Number:(Pittman)

Wide receiver ($21.816 million)

 

 

With the extra funds offer the 4yr $88m deal.

 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/nfl-reveals-franchise-tag-transition-tag-tenders-for-2024

 

"The franchise tag tenders are:

quarterback ($38.301 million)

running back ($11.951 million)

receiver ($21.816 million)

tight end ($12.693 million)

offensive lineman ($20.985 million) defensive end ($21.324 million)

defensive tackle ($22.102 million) linebacker ($24.007 million)

cornerback ($19.802 million)

safety ($17.123 million)

kicker/punter ($5.984 million).

 

The transition tag tenders are:

quarterback ($34.367 million)

running back ($9.765 million)

receiver ($19.766 million)

tight end ($10.878 million)

offensive lineman ($19.040)

defensive end ($19.076 million)

defensive tackle ($18.491 million) linebacker ($19.971 million)

cornerback ($17.215 million)

safety ($13.815 million)

kicker/punter ($5.433 million)."

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  • w87r changed the title to Colts 2024 Current Up to Date Roster + Cap Outlook. OP updated + on page 5(MERGE)

will have even more if we can agree on long term deal.

 

I imagine the tag will be applied and he will make some visits and get some potential offers. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

 

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This cap increase, knowing it was coming and would be substantial, is why I never put any stock in any of the ballyhoo about making Taylor one of the highest paid backs in the league. This increase takes a significant sting out of that, and after yet another record breaking profit margin it’s going to happen again next season.

 

Woe is us, how will we ever be able to afford to field a team in the future with one of the highest paid RBs in the league?

 

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The downside of the cap going up is that it goes up for the good teams too that are good with cap management. It does help the Chiefs stand a good chance of re-signing Chris Jones and L'Jarius Sneed, plus the Bengals holding on to Tee Higgins and possibly The Bears holding on to Mooney, The Chargers holding on to Keenan Allen etc.

 

Either take the swings in FA or in the draft for an infusion of quality additions to the roster. At least the swings with the draft with rookie contracts won't hurt you financially, that is my take on it.

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18 minutes ago, chad72 said:

The downside of the cap going up is that it goes up for the good teams too that are good with cap management. It does help the Chiefs stand a good chance of re-signing Chris Jones and L'Jarius Sneed, plus the Bengals holding on to Tee Higgins and possibly The Bears holding on to Mooney, The Chargers holding on to Keenan Allen etc.

 

Either take the swings in FA or in the draft for an infusion of quality additions to the roster. At least the swings with the draft with rookie contracts won't hurt you financially, that is my take on it.

I agree with this. The good thing is it will allow us to re-sign our own like Pittman, Stewart, Blackmon, and Moore if we want them back. Unfortunately, the FA market may be more bare than once thought or we may have more competition for the FAs that we would like to sign. It might encourage Ballard to wait on FA for other teams to spend their money so we can get better deals on the 2nd wave of FA. Of course, this can be argued for every year, but this is a year that I would think we'd spend a bit more considering we have AR now and Ballard's comments in the end of year presser about being more aggressive.

 

I personally think we sign 3 of Pittman, Stewart, Blackmon, and Moore and take advantage of the extra cap that way.

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8 minutes ago, Yoshinator said:

I agree with this. The good thing is it will allow us to re-sign our own like Pittman, Stewart, Blackmon, and Moore if we want them back. Unfortunately, the FA market may be more bare than once thought or we may have more competition for the FAs that we would like to sign. It might encourage Ballard to wait on FA for other teams to spend their money so we can get better deals on the 2nd wave of FA. Of course, this can be argued for every year, but this is a year that I would think we'd spend a bit more considering we have AR now and Ballard's comments in the end of year presser about being more aggressive.

 

I personally think we sign 3 of Pittman, Stewart, Blackmon, and Moore and take advantage of the extra cap that way.

 

You have to prioritize what your team can't do without and what your team can do without that can be obtained via the draft or second tier of FA.

 

The ones you can't do without - get them done the first week of FA.

 

The ones you can do without but need to add depth but the draft is weak on - look for second tier/later weeks FAs

 

The ones you can do without immediately but anticipate upgrade needs soon - go hard at the draft

 

Any FA signings obviously assumes some level of reasonability w.r.t market value. 

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13 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

You have to prioritize what your team can't do without and what your team can do without that can be obtained via the draft or second tier of FA.

 

The ones you can't do without - get them done the first week of FA.

 

The ones you can do without but need to add depth but the draft is weak on - look for second tier/later weeks FAs

 

The ones you can do without immediately but anticipate upgrade needs soon - go hard at the draft

 

Any FA signings obviously assumes some level of reasonability w.r.t market value. 

Yeah, I've said a version of this a few days ago on the forum of how I believe GMs strategize. TE is bad in FA and shallow in the draft, so I feel we would take Bowers if available at 15. The Safety class is weak in the draft, so I feel we would re-sign Blackmon or sign another S in FA. CB is strong in the draft (especially 1st round) so I feel Ballard may finally take a CB in the 1st round. RB is weak in the draft with so many going back to college, so we may sign a backup to Taylor in FA. 

 

I could go on and on, but this definitely a strategy I've emphasized before, and something I assume most GMs do in order to save as much money as possible and to squeeze as much value out of a combination of FA and the draft as possible to get the best overall team. 

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

Big difference between Spotrac and OtC currently, is:

 

OtC has performance based salary increases already calculated and have us with 5 additional players as well.

 

Spotrac has yet to update it.

 

So I would work off of the $72.3m number right now.

 

Yes, Spotrac is definitely missing some players. The OTC estimates are probably more accurate right now.

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1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Makes me think Ballard and the other GM’s were holding off on resigning players until after they found out the updated cap numbers.  Hopefully we get some players extended now.

 

The increased cap makes it easier for every team to retain players. So while people might immediately think that the Colts' offseason gets a shot in the arm, the reality is this probably takes some free agents off the market. The only impact it has on the Colts is it makes it more likely that we keep Grover or Blackmon.

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1 hour ago, w87r said:

will have even more if we can agree on long term deal.

 

I imagine the tag will be applied and he will make some visits and get some potential offers. Will be interesting to see how it goes.

 

I can’t imagine any team will talk to Pittman with the non exclusive tag on him.  That means they will give up two 1st rd picks if they sign him.  Can’t see a team doing that.  The transition tag makes more sense.  It’s lower at $19m ish.  Any offer he receives will be around $22n ish which I think the Colts would be happy to match.  The non exclusive tag is $22m ish.  I don’t see a reason to start there and go up.  Hopefully they get him signed before they have to put the tag on him.  

 

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6 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Listened to a podcast today where it was suggested that maybe the Colts could tag Pittman and then include him in a trade to move up in the draft and draft another WR.  You know who.

Let me guess was it Kevin Bowen. He has been suggesting to tag him until after free agency and draft instead of extending him to see what’s out there. That would not sit well with Pittman and would just make him and his agent mad if they waited until late spring and summer to extend him.

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16 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I can’t imagine any team will talk to Pittman with the non exclusive tag on him.  That means they will give up two 1st rd picks if they sign him.  Can’t see a team doing that.  The transition tag makes more sense.  It’s lower at $19m ish.  Any offer he receives will be around $22n ish which I think the Colts would be happy to match.  The non exclusive tag is $22m ish.  I don’t see a reason to start there and go up.  Hopefully they get him signed before they have to put the tag on him.  

 

Not necessarily. A different trade package can be negotiated between the two teams.

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17 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I can’t imagine any team will talk to Pittman with the non exclusive tag on him.  That means they will give up two 1st rd picks if they sign him.  Can’t see a team doing that.  The transition tag makes more sense.  It’s lower at $19m ish.  Any offer he receives will be around $22n ish which I think the Colts would be happy to match.  The non exclusive tag is $22m ish.  I don’t see a reason to start there and go up.  Hopefully they get him signed before they have to put the tag on him.  

 

As long as Pittman doesn't sigh an offer sheet he can be moved for less than the (2) 1st price tag, if offer sheet was signed.

 

Where as you're probably correct, no one is giving (2) 1st, but might be interested in a 1st + add pick.

 

 

Hopefully no one does offer him anything, gives all leverage to Colts. Don't see it happening though.

 

Colts aren't putting the transition tag on him.

 

If they tag him this year at the $21.816m, that would mean a 2nd tag would be around $26.2m, taking the 2yrs tag to $48m($24m AAV). So $22m is a good number, I've bumped it from my 5yr $100m($20m AAV)

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8 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Let me guess was it Kevin Bowen. He has been suggesting to tag him until after free agency and draft instead of extending him to see what’s out there. That would not sit well with Pittman and would just make him and his agent mad if they waited until late spring and summer to extend him.

Pittman has stated he wants to see what else might be out there.

 

 

Most players that are tagged and eventually sign long term extensions wait till late spring early summer to extend.

 

 

Get to see first wave of FA, draft, then any other potential secondary FA after the draft in case someone is still needing a WR.

19 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Listened to a podcast today where it was suggested that maybe the Colts could tag Pittman and then include him in a trade to move up in the draft and draft another WR.  You know who.

I saw an article a month back or so, talking about this scenario.

 

Perhaps #15, Pittman and other compensation to get to #3

 

8 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Not necessarily. A different trade package can be negotiated between the two teams.

As long as no offer sheet is signed. 

 

 

I know you know this, just adding context for anyone else that might not know.

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18 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

They can also sign him to a extension after the tag so the tag price might not even come to pass.

Most likely won't come to pass, if he stays here, unless he is asking for $30m or something crazy. Then we just tag twice for $24m average and figure it out afterwards.

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2 minutes ago, w87r said:

Pittman has stated he wants to see what else might be out there.

 

 

Most players that are tagged and eventually sign long term extensions wait till late spring early summer to extend.

 

 

Get to see first wave of FA, draft, then any other potential secondary FA after the draft in case someone is still needing a WR.

I saw an article a month back or so, talking about this scenario.

 

Perhaps #15, Pittman and other compensation to get to #3

 

As long as no offer sheet is signed. 

 

 

I know you know this, just adding context for anyone else that might not know.

We don’t really know if that Pittman is telling the truth or postering for that deal. We will never know. Money talks.

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2 minutes ago, w87r said:

Most likely won't come to pass, if he stays here, unless he is asking for $30m or something crazy. Then we just tag twice for $24m average and figure it out afterwards.

That isn’t what I meant. I suspect a extension will come after the franchise tag which means it will lower the amount of the cap hit and it won’t be the franchise price against the the cap it will be his extension price.

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Just now, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

That isn’t what I meant. I suspect a extension will come after the franchise tag which means it will lower the amount of the cap hit and it won’t be the franchise price against the the cap it will be his extension price.

I know what you meant, I was agreeing with you, unless he is asking for some crazy figure, then we just keep the tag cost.

 

Extension will probably lower franchise tag number by $5-$10m in 2024, if agreed upon.

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4 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

The salary cap going up will probably allow premium FA to stay with their teams if the teams want to keep them. I think Destin is correct here.

 

Yeah, I said this earlier on the thread that we'd probably use it to re-sign our own. I agree with Destin here. 

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7 minutes ago, w87r said:

As long as no offer sheet is signed. 

 

 

I know you know this, just adding context for anyone else that might not know.

 

Right. In the scenario above, if the thinking is no team would want to give up two firsts for Pittman, than they wouldn't be signing him to an offer sheet. They'd be working out a trade for different compensation.

 

If the Colts give Pittman the non exclusive tag, and a team signs him to an offer sheet, the Colts should/must let him leave, and take the two firsts. It's a no brainer.

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11 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

We don’t really know if that Pittman is telling the truth or postering for that deal. We will never know. Money talks.

If he would of just said he wanted to see what was out there in regards to $$$, I would go along with the postering angle. However he went into fit, how he is being used during the talks. Gives more credence to him actually wanting to see what is out there .

 

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Right. In the scenario above, if the thinking is no team would want to give up two firsts for Pittman, than they wouldn't be signing him to an offer sheet. They'd be working out a trade for different compensation.

 

If the Colts give Pittman the non exclusive tag, and a team signs him to an offer sheet, the Colts should/must let him leave, and take the two firsts. It's a no brainer.

They wouldn't be signing him to an offer sheet, but they would give him an offer(sheet), just not sign it, then sign extension after the trade goes through.

 

 

 

No doubt. Easy decision.

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14 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

The salary cap going up will probably allow premium FA to stay with their teams if the teams want to keep them. I think Destin is correct here.

 

While I agree, there will still be plenty of guys hit the market.

 

Goes both ways, players and agents know that teams have more money on the market, so they are not just going to settle, if they think there is more to be had on the market.

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13 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

We don’t really know if that Pittman is telling the truth or postering for that deal. We will never know. Money talks.


Isn't this a new position for you?  Aren’t you the same person who for months has been practically screaming that MPJ isn’t going anywhere.   That he and his wife bought a farm complete with all the animals.  That he LOVES Indy!  
 

Now you’re talking about not knowing if he’s telling the truth or posturing.  
 

Which is it?   This is a big change.   
 

 

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Just now, NewColtsFan said:


Isn't this a new position for you?  Aren’t you the same person who for months has been practically screaming that MPJ isn’t going anywhere.   That he and his wife bought a farm complete with all the animals.  That he LOVES Indy!  
 

Now you’re talking about not knowing if he’s telling the truth or posturing.  
 

Which is it?   This is a big change.   
 

 

She was responding to me saying he wanted to hit the market. I don't think her position has changed.

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So with the official cap in place, let's look at how the cap might look with our own FAs retained.

 

Remaining Free Agents:

QB:

Gardner Minshew(walk)

RB:

Zach Moss (walk, although this might improve chances he may stay?)

Trey Sermon $985k (minimum)

WR:

Michael Pittman tag - $21.8m, extension $15m(2024 cap hit, estimate)

Isaiah McKenzie(walk)

OC:

Danny Pinter(walk)

DE:

Tyquan Lewis($4m AAV)

Jake Martin(minimum or walk)

Genard Avery(injury, will walk for now)

 

DT:

Grover Stewart($10-$12m AAV)

Taven Bryan(walk)

CB:

Kenny Moore($6-$9m AAV)

S:

Julian Blackmon($7-$9m AAV)

P:

Rigoberto Sanchez (I would let walk for now, maybe look back later)

 

 

So with $72.3m in cap space, if we retain the guys I put a number by we would be looking like this.

 

Cap used with Tag: $49.8m-$56.8m used, minus $5.4m in contracts that drop below top 51.

 

Cap Space Remaining with Tag: $21.1m-$27.9m

 

Cap Space Remaining with extension:$27.9m-$34.7m

 

 

Going into FA.

 

Can always save $5.9m by moving on from Cox as well.

 

 

All depending on my salary projections, which could be low or high?

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12 minutes ago, w87r said:

Goes both ways, players and agents know that teams have more money on the market, so they are not just going to settle, if they think there is more to be had on the market.

 

I don't think I agree on this part. Players and agents don't negotiate contract values based on a percentage of the salary cap. The negotiation is based on market value, established by existing contracts. I don't think players and agents are saying 'we wanted $24m/year because it was 10% of the expected cap, so now we want $25m/year.' I think if the player is asking for $24m/year, it's because that's where the market has been established.

 

The formula for the non exclusive tag is partly based on the current year's cap, so the tag figures get juiced up a little (the WR tag is about $200k more than expected), but in most cases, a player who is a potential tag candidate is already looking for a yearly average greater than the tag amount. So even the tag amounts aren't likely to change the expectations any player already had.

 

What I think will happen is the team that was expecting to struggle to fit in a $24m/year contract to keep their hot ticket potential free agent now gets some breathing room. Now the additional cap space allows the team to keep that player and structure the contract responsibly. So think about the Bengals, if they weren't sure they could navigate their free agents and keep Tee Higgins, they have a little bit of extra space to make it work. So while it helps the Bengals keep their guy, it also takes that guy off the market for other teams. 

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6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think I agree on this part. Players and agents don't negotiate contract values based on a percentage of the salary cap. The negotiation is based on market value, established by existing contracts. I don't think players and agents are saying 'we wanted $24m/year because it was 10% of the expected cap, so now we want $25m/year.' I think if the player is asking for $24m/year, it's because that's where the market has been established.

 

The formula for the non exclusive tag is partly based on the current year's cap, so the tag figures get juiced up a little (the WR tag is about $200k more than expected), but in most cases, a player who is a potential tag candidate is already looking for a yearly average greater than the tag amount. So even the tag amounts aren't likely to change the expectations any player already had.

 

What I think will happen is the team that was expecting to struggle to fit in a $24m/year contract to keep their hot ticket potential free agent now gets some breathing room. Now the additional cap space allows the team to keep that player and structure the contract responsibly. So think about the Bengals, if they weren't sure they could navigate their free agents and keep Tee Higgins, they have a little bit of extra space to make it work. So while it helps the Bengals keep their guy, it also takes that guy off the market for other teams. 

I wasn't referring to the Pittman tag situation. You might not be talking about this either, but that's how I read the first part. That percentage of the cap is really a thing in the NBA, contracts are straight structured with those (max players) conditions.

 

 

I was referring to all FA that might hit the market. Again, this might be what you are talking about as it fits how I read the 3rd paragraph.?

 

Yes there is the set market value, but with the cap going up an additional $12-$13m over initial projections ($240-$242m), I think players and agents might be a little apprehensive about taking what they might perceive as a borderline low-ball offer(probably bad choice of wording), even if it's close to market value.

 

 

I think it will definitely benefit a lot of teams in regards to retaining their own guys(definitely us), no doubt, but there will still be plenty of big names on the market. Bottom line is there is a lot more money on the market than was going to be at that $240-$242m cap projection(states Mr Obvious, me). So I think players are going to want to see what's out there.

 

Thing I find interesting and might affect @NFLfan, is the Kirk Cousins situation. The extra $12-$13m over prior 2024 cap projections, helps put a dent in the dead cap of Kirk if he isn't retained. Does that make them more likely to allow him to walk away, instead of trying to resign him and get rid of the $28.5m dead cap if he leaves? 

 

 

 

Also as it relates to above(prior quote). Wasn't telling you anything you don't already know in regarding offer sheets (offered/ or signed), was just providing context for anyone else who might not know. Although I think most the forum is starting to be pretty well versed on these things.

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Just now, JediXMan said:

Cutting Mo will save 5 million has as well. Tbh It’s time to move on from him as it’s a combo of him be inconsistent and the young talent the other TEs have on the roster.

$5.9m, :) even better.

 

I agree, regardless what happens with Ogletree, I think we need to move on, unless Mo is willing to take a pay cut.

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42 minutes ago, w87r said:

Bottom line is there is a lot more money on the market than was going to be at that $240-$242m cap projection(states Mr Obvious, me). So I think players are going to want to see what's out there.

 

From a high level standpoint, I wouldn't disagree with this statement. If there's an unexpected $380m or so in available cap space because of the increase, then a player might feel like the market is a little more vibrant than what he expected it to be. And in that case, maybe a player who would have been more prone to take the home team offer before free agency starts feels like it's worth it to turn down their offer and test the market.

 

But I think that's probably offset by the fact that teams now have more flexibility this season. So there's probably an average of one player per team that the team was prepared to let walk in free agency, but now they have the ability to keep him. Let's say that player for the Colts is Grover Stewart (I wanted to use Blackmon, but his injury adds another variable), and he wants three years, $36m. The Colts might have been wincing at that when they thought the cap was $244m, but now that it's $255m, they think they can make it work. Maybe Grover still wants to test his market, but if the Colts make him the offer he was hoping for, he's likely going to take it.

 

What I think it's misplaced is the idea that players and their agents now increase their asking price because the cap has gone up, as if their asking price is based on a specific percentage of the cap. Like you said, that's an NBA max contract thing. Over the course of time, the NFL cap increase will lead to an increase in player salaries across the board, but that doesn't really play out in individual negotiations in one offseason.

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20 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

@w87r Does this increase affect rookie contract amounts as well, and do we know those numbers? 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cba/minimum/

 

 

League minimums are set per the CBA through 2030 for years of service 

 

 

Here is the draft cost per draft slot:(estimates, although I think that is more of projected comp picks)

 

https://overthecap.com/draft

 

 

That's a good question though, and one I can't give a definitive answer off the top of head 

 

 

Found this on a quick search 

 

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/nfl-salary-cap-increase-is-good-news-for-everyone-particularly-contenders

 

"Thirty-two teams each gaining $13 million in cap space adds up to $416 million in new bonus spending — an NFL stimulus package, if there ever was one. For teams trying to spend wisely and not use cap tricks like void years to create current cap space at the expense of future seasons, this is like getting notice that your credit-card spending limit has been raised, making it easier for desperate teams to take big swings as they try to get back to national relevance and playoff contention.

 

The NFL's league-minimum salaries won't go up in conjunction with a higher salary cap — that starts with rookies making $795,000 this year. The biggest gains will probably go to the league's biggest stars. The league has only four quarterbacks making $50 million a year or more (Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Jamal Hurts) but that number could grow in the next month, with potential new deals for Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence and a few other top passers."

 

Not a very good example for your question though.

 

 

perhaps @Supermanwill have a better answer there. 

 

my answer would be no, but I could be wrong.

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52 minutes ago, w87r said:

Also as it relates to above(prior quote). Wasn't telling you anything you don't already know in regarding offer sheets (offered/ or signed), was just providing context for anyone else who might not know. Although I think most the forum is starting to be pretty well versed on these things.

 

The devil's in the details. All good points.

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