Colts in "strong pursuit" of Tyrell Williams

[CR91]

 

 

[krunk]

Hope we get him

[Jdubu]

I’d rather bring back Inman and draft a top guy at 26 or 34 than pay this one. His target and catch rate concern me. I’d love to know how many of those drops were bad throws vs true drops. Stats like these on paper are always tough to look at without understanding the drop. 10 million/yr, maybe but I’m not going any higher than that when we have options. 

[TomDiggs]

Makes some sense but not at the rate I have heard quoted.

 

La Canfora states that he expects Williams to get a contract that will eclipse $12M a year.

 

That is absurd. We are talking top-15 WR money at that rate.

 

I like Williams. And I know you need to pay up during free agency. But that would be crazy money to drop on Williams.

 

 

[PeterBowman]

dangit, was literally about to post this lol

[crazycolt1]

Just now, Jdubu said:

I’d rather bring back Inman and draft a top guy at 26 or 34 than pay this one. His target and catch rate concern me. I’d love to know how many of those drops were bad throws vs true drops. Stats like these on paper are always tough to look at without understanding the drop. 10 million/yr, maybe but I’m not going any higher than that when we have options. 

So what is wrong with resigning Inman and signing Williams?

If we draft a WR it would be a couple of years before seeing any results from that.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

That’s is good news. We can bring back Inman also. Williams would be a number two and Inman would be a good three. Inman is a good depth guy for injuries and a good 3 or 4. I don’t know much about tyrelk but from what I have read he is a upgrade from Inman. Maybe we will have two TY’s. Lol

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, PeterBowman said:

dangit, was literally about to post this lol

 

 sorry . beat you to the punch. Someones gotta post from twitter when TK isnt here

[Superman]

The connection has always been logical and obvious. But we've seen this before -- Dontari Poe, Anthony Hitchens, etc. We'll see what happens next week.

 

Williams is probably my third choice for a FA wide receiver, behind Humphries and maybe Tate, at the right value.

[crazycolt1]

3 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:

Makes some sense but not at the rate I have heard quoted.

 

La Canfora states that he expects Williams to get a contract that will eclipse $12M a year.

 

That is absurd. We are talking top-15 WR money at that rate.

 

I like Williams. And I know you need to pay up during free agency. But that would be crazy money to drop on Williams.

 

 

This is not 2000 anymore. To get good players you have to fork out good money.

I have a feeling if Williams is signed by the Colts he would be in the top 15.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

If we could get him with TY. Let cain slowly come back from injury. Resign Inman. That gives us a pretty good WR core. I wouldn’t be opposed to bringing Rogers back also  He had a pretty good year. Pascal or Rogers would probably get cut if this happens.

[richard pallo]

Looks like the tampering has already begun.  Great news.  The Reich connection and Ebron's success could really help us.   I expect we will be connected to a few other players as well.  Looks like Ballard is about to open the checkbook.  

[Fluke_33]

 

1 minute ago, Superman said:

The connection has always been logical and obvious. But we've seen this before -- Dontari Poe, Anthony Hitchens, etc. We'll see what happens next week.

 

Before the parade even begins, it starts to rain!  Let me enjoy the prospect before hitting me with the reality of the past!!

[crazycolt1]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

The connection has always been logical and obvious. But we've seen this before -- Dontari Poe, Anthony Hitchens, etc. We'll see what happens next week.

 

Williams is probably my third choice for a FA wide receiver, behind Humphries and maybe Tate, at the right value.

I would be happy with Humphries or Williams.  Tate would also bring something for sure.

[Coffeedrinker]

I know he has a connection to the OC and admittadly I don't know a ton about the Chargers offense but it's a red flag to me when a receiver gets fewer catches than the year before... in 2017 Williams had significantly fewer receptions than he did in 2016 and then in 2018 he had fewer than 2017.  Not a good sign for a WR, IMO.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I will say if you look at his stats there in that tweet his numbers are similar to Inman. Inman only played half the season so you would need to double his stats. He is also about the same size as Inman. So would it really be a upgrade. I would have to look at his prior years.

[Jdubu]

1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:

So what is wrong with resigning Inman and signing Williams?

If we draft a WR it would be a couple of years before seeing any results from that.

Well you can only carry so many wr’s. We have TY, Cain, Inman* Fountain, Rogers*, Johnson*, Ishmael* and if we take a high pick that’s just too many guys. We know TY, Cain and Inman, If signed, would be on the team, as well as that #26 or 34 pick. The team sounded very high on Johnson and his potential and at some point, you have to figure out whether you can coach up and develop your guys you brought in at the lower rounds and get them into a 2 or 3 receiver at the least. Are you of the belief the team would spend that much cap into another receiver that while pretty good, isn’t heart stopping. I’d tend to grow what we have and go after defense. All this is just my opinion and the team could surprise me. I’ll be fine with whatever they do though.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

What happened with him and the chargers where his numbers were so good in 2016 that they dropped so bad. Seeing his stats nor sure this is a upgrade.

[crazycolt1]

3 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I know he has a connection to the OC and admittadly I don't know a ton about the Chargers offense but it's a red flag to me when a receiver gets fewer catches than the year before... in 2017 Williams had significantly fewer receptions than he did in 2016 and then in 2018 he had fewer than 2017.  Not a good sign for a WR, IMO.

When you start behind Allen and M. Williams the numbers will be low.

But when he has started over one of those two he has produced.

[TomDiggs]

3 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

This is not 2000 anymore. To get good players you have to fork out good money.

I have a feeling if Williams is signed by the Colts he would be in the top 15.

Yes you have to pay money. Agreed.

 

What you do not have to do is overpay. And Ballard has shown he won't.

 

With plenty of solid slot guys out there, the only way you pay a Ty Williams top-15 money is if you deem that he is a "must have" outside WR that is a Pro-Bowl/ All-Pro caliber guy.

 

If Hilton is a $13M guy and you're going to pay this guy what guys like Keenan Allen and Alshon Jefferey and Doug Baldwin get paid, then you need to project him to be at that high level.

 

I am not opposed to paying guys to acquire talent. Especially with the money we have.

 

I am opposed to paying guys way above what their talent level dictates.

 

Hell, I'd rather throw that money at Golden Tate before Williams.

 

The only saving grace with regard to Williams is that Reich should be very familiar with him from his time in San Diego when Williams was a rookie. But Williams had his best year the year after Reich left.

 

Going to be fun to watch how this shakes out.

[crazycolt1]

1 minute ago, Chloe6124 said:

What happened with him and the chargers where his numbers were so good in 2016 that they dropped so bad. Seeing his stats nor sure this is a upgrade.

Keenen Allen and Mike Williams is what happened.

[CR91]

Just now, Coffeedrinker said:

I know he has a connection to the OC and admittadly I don't know a ton about the Chargers offense but it's a red flag to me when a receiver gets fewer catches than the year before... in 2017 Williams had significantly fewer receptions than he did in 2016 and then in 2018 he had fewer than 2017.  Not a good sign for a WR, IMO.

 

Chargers played a lot of 3 wide, but alot of that was done to get Gordon in space and work out of the backfield. 

[Boiler_Colt]

Word of warning. This happens every year where "reports" come out to say the Colts are in strong pursuit of somebody, but less than half the time it turns out to be true. A lot of the time is is posturing by agents to bump up the market for their player by spreading misinformation.

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I know he has a connection to the OC and admittadly I don't know a ton about the Chargers offense but it's a red flag to me when a receiver gets fewer catches than the year before... in 2017 Williams had significantly fewer receptions than he did in 2016 and then in 2018 he had fewer than 2017.  Not a good sign for a WR, IMO.

 

His best year was when Keenan Allen was hurt. That's when he got 50 more targets than he has since. Same thing for Inman. Allen came back in 2017 and had a ridiculous career-high 159 targets, and they started throwing to Melvin Gordon more. Then in 2018, Mike Williams was a bigger part of the offense. 

 

Williams seems like a decent #2, but I think anyone expecting him to consistently produce like a #1 or fringe #1 is probably fooling themselves. Williams at $12m/year or Humphries at $10m/year, I'm taking Humphries for sure.

[Jdubu]

5 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I will say if you look at his stats there in that tweet his numbers are similar to Inman. Inman only played half the season so you would need to double his stats. He is also about the same size as Inman. So would it really be a upgrade. I would have to look at his prior years.

And Inman isn’t going to cost 10 million/yr, we already know what he brings us, he knows our team and offense now and Luck trusts him. It’s a great transition until we get a couple more seasons of a defensive build up. I won’t be mad if we get him, he can certainly help improve our team, I just feel it’s a bit overkill to have 4 potential wr’s that are #2’s on the team at that price. Now if Inman is looking for 8-10/yr, maybe we do go for the kid. 

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:

If Hilton is a $13M guy

 

Not a good comp. Hilton signed four years ago. Since then, lots of players have affected the market. If Hilton were a FA right now, he'd be a $16m/year guy.

[NewColtsFan]

10 minutes ago, Jdubu said:

Well you can only carry so many wr’s. We have TY, Cain, Inman* Fountain, Rogers*, Johnson*, Ishmael* and if we take a high pick that’s just too many guys. We know TY, Cain and Inman, If signed, would be on the team, as well as that #26 or 34 pick. The team sounded very high on Johnson and his potential and at some point, you have to figure out whether you can coach up and develop your guys you brought in at the lower rounds and get them into a 2 or 3 receiver at the least. Are you of the belief the team would spend that much cap into another receiver that while pretty good, isn’t heart stopping. I’d tend to grow what we have and go after defense. All this is just my opinion and the team could surprise me. I’ll be fine with whatever they do though.  

 

How about this?

 

Hilton, FA WR, Draft pick.  Inman, Cain.

 

The others you mentioned will likely be gone, or be on the PS.   And I’ve only listed 5 WRs.   We might carry six. 

 

Lots of options.

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Unless he plays lights out I dont see this as a guy to take pressure off TY. It’s a pass for me. Especially if he wants that much money. We can get Inman cheaper and hope Cane can come in and start playing.

[Yoshinator]

I wouldn't pay him more than $6 million a year to be honest. He's a no 3 receiver IMO who I hope Ballard doesn't fall for overpaying because of a SD connection. I'd honestly be disappointed if we paid $10 million +.

[TomDiggs]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

Not a good comp. Hilton signed four years ago. Since then, lots of players have affected the market. If Hilton were a FA right now, he'd be a $16m/year guy.

It is a good comp for our locker room.

 

That is all I am getting at.

 

If you bring in Tyrell Williams to play for the Colts on the same team as Hilton and you pay him what you are paying Hilton, that matters. And it is essentially the type of thing Ballard has mentioned in passing about paying the right guy, etc.

 

I do not doubt that Hilton is more than a $13M guy in today's market.

 

But also Hilton will be a free agent again at 31. So he may not get that $16M+ per year when he next hits the market either.

 

All I am saying is that I would not pay Williams $12M a year.

 

Is Williams a $12M a year guy when Sammy Watkins is a $16M a year guy? Yessir. He most certainly could and arguably should be.

 

I just would not want to pay that. I'd rather drop the coin and overpay at other positions if we were going to burn through some big bucks.

[Jdubu]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

How about this?

 

Hilton, FA WR, Draft pick.  Inman, Cain.

 

The others you mentioned will likely be gone, or be on the PS.   And I’ve only listed 5 WRs.   We might carry six. 

 

Lots of options.

 

I mean it’s possible but now you’ve just tossed those young kids out and replaced them with higher cost players, either the FA or the draftee. So now, who sits during the year of these guys? TY is playing, Cain (based on his performance last fall) is playing, Inman  is likely playing. Now you have the new FA and the new high draft pick. All I’m saying is that’s a lot of high assets to put into the position knowing only 3 of them are going to be on the field at a time. Maybe you rotate them but remember, we also have 2 TE’s that we also use a lot. This imho is why we can’t afford to have this many high cost assets in one position slot, you have to add in the Pascals, Rogers, Fountains, Johnson’s etc... and have at least 2 top level assets as your 1-2 guys. If we didn’t use the TE so much in our offense, I could say yeah, invest in a 3rd top asset in the receiver group. 

 

All i know is it’s going to be fun watching them put this team together and I can’t wait to see how they improve in year two of Reichs offense and Eberflus defense. CB has a lot of really delicate and tough choices to make. I’m glad we aren’t required to do it 

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:

All I am saying is that I would not pay Williams $12M a year.

 

Is Williams a $12M a year guy when Sammy Watkins is a $16M a year guy? Yessir. He most certainly could and arguably should be.

 

I just would not want to pay that. I'd rather drop the coin and overpay at other positions if we were going to burn through some big bucks.

 

I agree with all of this.

 

But I think the locker room understands that Hilton signed four years ago, and was never a free agent, so his contract isn't really relevant. At least, I hope they do. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

I think the only real way for the colts to get a receiver to take the pressure off TY is hoping one of the draft picks develops. Will one develop before Luck snd TY get to old  We will see.

[Coffeedrinker]

13 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Chargers played a lot of 3 wide, but alot of that was done to get Gordon in space and work out of the backfield. 

 

11 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

His best year was when Keenan Allen was hurt. That's when he got 50 more targets than he has since. Same thing for Inman. Allen came back in 2017 and had a ridiculous career-high 159 targets, and they started throwing to Melvin Gordon more. Then in 2018, Mike Williams was a bigger part of the offense. 

 

Williams seems like a decent #2, but I think anyone expecting him to consistently produce like a #1 or fringe #1 is probably fooling themselves. Williams at $12m/year or Humphries at $10m/year, I'm taking Humphries for sure.

Thanks guys.  So I will throw out a bit of a chicken/egg scenario... did he get fewer targets because they wanted to throw the ball more to Gordon or did they want to throw the ball more to Gordon because Williams was less than effective?

[CR91]

1 minute ago, Coffeedrinker said:

 

Thanks guys.  So I will throw out a bit of a chicken/egg scenario... did he get fewer targets because they wanted to throw the ball more to Gordon or did they want to throw the ball more to Gordon because Williams was less than effective?

 

imo, they wanted to get Gordon more involved in the passing game

[Superman]

Just now, Coffeedrinker said:

 

Thanks guys.  So I will throw out a bit of a chicken/egg scenario... did he get fewer targets because they wanted to throw the ball more to Gordon or did they want to throw the ball more to Gordon because Williams was less than effective?

 

They changed coaching staffs, and Anthony Lynn preferred three receiver sets and using the RB, so I'd say it was more the former than the latter. But if your 2/3 receiver is getting open, you don't get to the RB, so Williams' ability to beat coverage and make plays is something to be considered.

[DougDew]

17 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

How about this?

 

Hilton, FA WR, Draft pick.  Inman, Cain.

 

The others you mentioned will likely be gone, or be on the PS.   And I’ve only listed 5 WRs.   We might carry six. 

 

Lots of options.

 

Agreed.  The fact is we have not had good talent at WR at all beyond TY, for a number of years, not just at #2.  Sign Williams, Inman, and draft another round 3 or higher and that should fix it.   That's assuming TY stays healthy and doesn't start getting nicked up.

[NewColtsFan]

 

Why is Williams being pursued by the Colts?      How about this?     From ESPN,  where Williams is now ranked the 10th top FA available.

 

 

He might not be a household name, but since the start of the 2016 season, Williams has averaged more yards per reception (15.9) than all but six pass-catchers in the NFL (minimum 43 catches). He might be the best big (6-foot-4) deep threat approaching the market.

 

Williams takes the top off a defense.    The other options,  less so.

 

As to why the dip in production.

 

Remember,  the Chargers took WR Mike Williams, out of Clemson,  top-10 a few years ago,  but he missed the season due to a bad back.  Also, Keenan Allen has been hurt some.    Tyrell Williams' numbers soared.    TW's numbers went back down when Mike Williams came back.  Also,  TE Hudson Henry played after injury and the Chargers had other receiving options.    The ball was being spread around.      So Mike Williams had less targets.

 

My $$$ ceiling for Williams is $12 mill per.   Just as long as TYH remains the highest paid in our locker-room.    And I'd be fine extending TY a few years as well to put more guaranteed money in his pocket.   If someone wants to pay Williams more than use,   we move on to whoever are our other options...    Humphries?    Tate?   

 

[onebad150]

If gets 12M a year it won't be from the Colt's,   I must be the only one that likes Devin Funchess I think he has a lot of UP side and is way more affordable

 

[Superman]

34 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

Looks like the tampering has already begun.  

 

It really takes off at the combine, and they don't even hide it anymore. Ballard spoke openly about having the opportunity to talk to agents at the combine about their clients hitting free agency, and he made it clear he was talking about players from other teams. 

 

19 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

How about this?

 

Hilton, FA WR, Draft pick.  Inman, Cain.

 

 

That's my preferred formula.