2019 WR draft / film notes

[stitches]

11 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Is N’Harry even on your draftable list at all?   Surprised not to see his name in your post.

 

People say he had a very good Combine and answered questions about a perceived weakness....   speed and athketicism.

 

Your thought?

Oh I like Harry(he's on the list under the code name... Harry  ). I was kind of disappointed watching him against Stanford, but that was not one of his better games and he did play against what I consider a great CB talent in Paulson Adebo. I think he's a good value in the second round(if he drops there). He's great after the catch and he can make people miss as well as just truck over a couple defenders to get the tough yards and move the sticks. He is also pretty good tracking the ball and fighting for it in the air. 

 

His combine was pretty much what I expected - his explosiveness scores were off the charts(27 bench press reps, 38.5" vertical and 122" broad jump). his speed which was one of the questions for him, was good enough(4.53 40 yard dash). He did not do the agility tests and IMO he's one of the players whose representatives know what they are doing and they knew he wouldn't test great there so he just skipped them. But his game doesn't suggest he has great agility so that wouldn't have been a surprise to me. In general he checked the boxes he needed to check for me to still consider him high level prospect. 

[twfish]

41 minutes ago, stitches said:

I was never enamored by Harmon and I never saw what most others did. He was pretty much a worse, smaller and less athletic version of Hakeem Butler for me without the YAC ability Butler has. I have about 7-8 receivers ahead of him in this draft. I would pick Metcalf, Butler, Deebo, AJ Brown, Harry, Campbell, JJ Arcega Whiteside, Hollywood Brown if he was healthy... probably even Andy Isabella ... ahead of Harmon. 

 

BTW... 

Fairly disappointing pro-day for Preston Williams:

 

Yea you and I see so differently on him it's not worth arguing over haha. 

[stitches]

6 minutes ago, twfish said:

Yea you and I see so differently on him it's not worth arguing over haha. 

What I will say is that you are not in a bad company. A lot of draft analysts whose opinion I respect are with you on Harmon(at least were before the combine, I don't know about now). So I'm kind of alone on this one so it's very possible I'm wrong. I tried to see what others do, but every time I put on the tape of him I'm thinking... oh look... imagine if he was 3 inches taller, he'd be like Hakeem Butler... oh look... he's kinda slow... imagine if he was much faster he would be like Hakeem Butler... oh look... he caught a tough ball but didn't get any yards after the catch... imagine if the was Hakeem Butler, he could have taken it all the way to the end zone... etc. 

[Matthew Gilbert]

20 hours ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

Anxiously waiting for your thoughts on DaMarkus Lodge...

@Superman

[stitches]

Here's a nice article on this year's receivers group divided in X, Z, slot and big slot receivers from The Draft Network:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/breaking-the-2019-wide-receiver-class-into-nfl-roles

 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

@Superman

 

Not there yet, but hopefully soon.

 

Not tonight, it's Captain Marvel night...

[Matthew Gilbert]

19 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Not there yet, but hopefully soon.

 

Not tonight, it's Captain Marvel night...

Hail Hydra!

[twfish]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

What I will say is that you are not in a bad company. A lot of draft analysts whose opinion I respect are with you on Harmon(at least were before the combine, I don't know about now). So I'm kind of alone on this one so it's very possible I'm wrong. I tried to see what others do, but every time I put on the tape of him I'm thinking... oh look... imagine if he was 3 inches taller, he'd be like Hakeem Butler... oh look... he's kinda slow... imagine if he was much faster he would be like Hakeem Butler... oh look... he caught a tough ball but didn't get any yards after the catch... imagine if the was Hakeem Butler, he could have taken it all the way to the end zone... etc. 

 Soooooo you like Hakeem Butler? Haha it's okay my view on D.K has been very different then most, we all see different things different ways. Just like how for me Harmon appears to be the most polished pro ready WR in this class. I havent watched hardly any of butlers tape so I cant judge to harshly. I am also looking at the WR that I think will compliment t.y and this offense, I dont want another Dorsett type so I havent really looked at the smaller speedsters

[Surge89]

On 3/6/2019 at 9:59 AM, Coffeedrinker said:

Thanks @Superman   good breakdown.

 

A guy I'm just starting to look at is N'Keal Harry because I've seen him mocked to the Colts a couple of times.  And so far I like what I see and I think he could fit in nicely with the Colts.

 

IMO the Colts have the guy who can take the top off defenses with Hilton, what they are lacking is that guy that can catch that 5 yard slant and pick up a 3rd down, or someone that can consistently win contested catches.  He's not fast or overly quick but he can run the entire route tree and has about the best body control on anyone I have watched so far (although that number is limited).  Paired up with Doyle (assuming he comes back healthy) the Colts will have two reliable targets who can find ways to get open and make the catch to keep drives alive.

 

I do wonder some about his lack of being a redzone target.  I don't know if that was more a function of AZ State offense or if his lack of suddenness is just more exposed in that part of the field.

 

 

 

Yet again we find ourselves in complete agreement.

 

Harry is my favorite receiver prospect in this draft. He's going to surprise people.  He wasn't used properly in AZ State and still succeeded. Imo he and Brown are the 2 best receivers in this draft. And it isn't really close.  Those are my only 2 receivers that I have a first round grade with Butler a fringe first/second. 

[Surge89]

On 3/6/2019 at 9:35 AM, Superman said:

I'm starting this as kind of a catch-all for my WR draft thoughts, since @stitches keeps calling me out... ;) 

 

Feel free to add your thoughts, whether random or well thought out, or whatever, so we can discuss 2019 draft class wide receivers together.

 

First up for me: I definitely have Hakeem Butler ahead of DK Metcalf. Metcalf is a raw athlete with inconsistent hands, little understanding of route running and body positioning. While he's super fast and can break tackles, if he's not running past the secondary or breaking short against off coverage, I'm not convinced he can get open in the NFL. He's big and fast and can jump, but I don't see him using those tools to catch the ball at the high point consistently. He does have incredible range once the ball is in the air, and he has a "go get it" mentality, leading to some highlight catches, but mostly against DBs who have no ball instincts (Lonnie Johnson, for instance). He can play, he can definitely run, but he's not a skilled route runner, he's not consistent with his hands, and he doesn't use his body to create separation. He also doesn't have any production. He is the athlete with upside who, IMO, will get overdrafted because of his insane potential, but he has a lot of work to do to live up to that potential.

 

Hakeem Butler is another athlete with upside. He's not as freakish as Metcalf, not as quick, not as fast in the 40, probably doesn't hit the same top speed either, but still an eye-popping athlete with plenty of explosiveness. More of a long-strider, like Braylon Edwards, with some Josh Gordon to him when the ball is in the air. Similar issues with route running, and creating separation out of breaks; he also is an inconsistent ball catcher, like Metcalf. But I think he's more physical, more imposing, uses his body better, has better awareness for where he is on the field, I think his footwork is better, and his tenacity once he has the ball is unmatched. He has double the production of Metcalf, and fewer injuries in his past.

 

So my comparison for Metcalf is Cordarrelle Patterson, and my comparison for Butler is Vincent Jackson. Both are promising prospects, but I prefer Butler over Metcalf. 

 

 

Great write up!

 

I like Butler alot. I don't think he's the best receiver in this draft but I have him highly rated.

 

I'm down on Metcalf.  I tried liking him. Heck even his combine measurables were eye popping but no matter what I do I just don't see nor feel an NFL quality receiver. 

 

I'm a huge fan of Brown and Harry though. Imo they are 1A and 1B in this draft. 

[stitches]

1 hour ago, twfish said:

 Soooooo you like Hakeem Butler? Haha it's okay my view on D.K has been very different then most, we all see different things different ways. Just like how for me Harmon appears to be the most polished pro ready WR in this class. I havent watched hardly any of butlers tape so I cant judge to harshly. I am also looking at the WR that I think will compliment t.y and this offense, I dont want another Dorsett type so I havent really looked at the smaller speedsters

The problem of Dorsett was not that he was a small speedster. it was that he was not a good small speedster. Neither of us will turn down a small speedster like... Tyreek Hill for example. Who do you consider small speedster in this draft? Marquise Brown and Andy Isabella? Both of them have much better production than Dorsett did in college. Have you watched Parris Campbell? He's not exactly small, but he's not big either(6'0" 205)  and he's a speedster. 

[BOTT]

7 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Not there yet, but hopefully soon.

 

Not tonight, it's Captain Marvel night...

Don't fall asleep

[stitches]

I'm not alone anymore!!! Hurray! I just listened to Ross Tucker's podcast with my favorite NFL analyst Greg Cosell and they talked about the WR position of this draft - very good listen... you can find it here:

https://www.podcastone.com/episode/RTFP-1008-Greg-Cosell

 

He seems to love Butler and is not overly impressed by Harmon.

 

Highlights about players by Greg Cosell(those are his words so when you see 'I' in here it means Greg Cosell and his opinion):

 

DK Metcalf - big physically explosive athlete. He ran by off coverage, straight line player at this point of his career. Not refined route runner. Doesn't come out of breaks smoothly or cleanly just yet. Rounds off his routes. Depending on the pass-game concept that might not be a big problem(cited the greatest show on turf as an example of an offense that you can do that). Defeats press coverage by his size and strength. Not many receivers with his HWS profile - will probably get him drafted high. Has the traits to be a threat on all 3 levels of the defense. Comparison - Josh Gordon, Mike Evans. Ross Tucker brought up TO as a comparison. 

 

AJ Brown - interesting guy. There is savvy and refinement to his game when it comes to his route running. In the slot almost exclusively until game 8 this season and this was big for him when they moved him outside and he showed ability to win outside. He's not overly athletic but he checks a lot of boxes - route running savvy, hands. competitive toughness. The more I watched him the more I liked him. 

 

Marquise Brown - slight built. Similar to Desean Jackson and TY Hilton in his vertical explosiveness. Game breaking speed. Maybe not volume receiver. He will line up all over the formation. Will present matchup issues for opponents. Speed and space receiver. 

 

Kelvin Harmon - natural toughness, physically competitive, big body. More measured, not explosive, a little stiff, upright, not fluid. Question is whether he can consistently separate and win against good NFL man coverage. He's not a burst guy, not a speed guy. Not sure about Kelvin Harmon['s transition to NFL]. Size, hands, body control receiver. Can he be someone like Alshon Jeffery? 

 

N'Keal Harry - ran better than I thought. Presents that hands, size, body control, contested catch profile that a lot of X receivers in the NFL are about. Great awareness on the boundary, terrific ball skills, not explosive... great runs after catch but not an explosive... more of a big strong body type of receiver. New NFL emphasizes short passes - I don't think he moves as well as Michael Thomas, but can he be used in a similar way? 

Riley Ridley - I like Ridley a lot. Traits exceeded production. has the desired combination of size, length and movement. Very good feel for how to run routes and defeat both on and off man coverage. Combine test not great but he showed refined sense as a route runner, very detailed, understands how to attack the leverage of corners and to create separation at the top of his route stems. 

 

Andy Isabella - a lot of fun to watch and then he runs 4.31... He's both quick AND fast. He has suddenness to his short area movement, he's also got the speed to run past the defense. He plays fast, he plays explosively. Even though they have different strengths(strength vs speed) can he be used in a similar way to how Pats use Edelman? I think it's easy to stereotype him as a pure slot receiver, but in today's NFL he can probably line up both on the inside and on the outside(comparison - Gabriel). He can be a movement receiver, they will motion him, he will be in the slot or outside... fascinated by his tape. 

 

Then Ross Tucker asked him if he wants to talk about anybody else in this draft class? JJAW? Emanuel Hall? Dillon Mitchell? And Cosell was like... no, no... I will give you someone else - Hakeem Butler. 

 

Hakeem Butler - I really liked him on tape. 6'5 3/8, 227, 4.49, 36" vertical. Fascinating combination of size, stride length, hands, pretty fluid for a guy of his size. Classic X-receiver, but he can also be a matchup problem in the conventional slot, in the inside slot of trips formations[my note here - Reich runs a ton of those]. In current NFL X-iso boundary receivers are critical to passing games. You get a lot of man coverage against X-iso receiver and I think Butler with experienced coaching can really fill that role effectively. What's the knock on him? Some people feel he had too many drops, but I wouldn't say he has bad hands. Maybe I will be totally wrong, but I think this kid is fascinating. 

 

 

 

[Superman]

12 hours ago, BOTT said:

Don't fall asleep

 

Have you seen it? That wasn't an issue for me at all. I enjoyed it.

[BOTT]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Have you seen it? That wasn't an issue for me at all. I enjoyed it.

Oh, that's good news. I heard the reviews have not been kind. I've like Brie Larson since "The United States of Tara",  but I wasn't sure she pull off Captain Marvel.

[Superman]

11 minutes ago, BOTT said:

Oh, that's good news. I heard the reviews have not been kind. I've like Brie Larson since "The United States of Tara",  but I wasn't sure she pull off Captain Marvel.

 

I think the bad early reviews were mostly from trolls trying to tank it on Rotten Tomatoes. They've been doing that with big movies lately, especially movies starring women. In this case, Captain Marvel was originally a man, but has been a woman at times throughout the history of the character, so that seemed to set off the trolls even more.

 

Brie Larson pulled it off, IMO. I think she brought an excellent balance to the character. I first discovered her when someone recommended I watch Short Term 12, and she was good in Room (Best Actress, so duh). 

 

And if you're a fan of the MCU, this movie does a good job setting the table for the next Avengers movie.

[Breeze]

Looks like a long list of good WR’s.... To all the film watchers (I’m not one of them), can anything be gleaned from which ones actually catch with their hands as opposed to always letting the ball get to their body and pads?  You can pretty much eliminate the body and pad catchers from the discussion as they don’t fair too well at the NFL level.  The ones that catch everything with their hands tend have the most success...it’s pretty much second nature to them.  

[Hoose]

On 3/7/2019 at 2:28 AM, shastamasta said:

 

Been saying it a for a while as well...it is loaded. Like legit starting WRs on half the NFL deep. It might not have the top end talent that 2014 had...but definitely the depth.

 

Because of this...I am fully on board with a double dip at the position. Give me someone like AJ Brown or Butler...and one of the slot WRs like Isabella. I know we want (and the Colts need) defensive playmakers...but I also think there is a unique opportunity to pick up 2/3 of a starting 3-WR set. 

I've begun to think like this as well. There is an opportunity to set yourself up for years to come at WR. Give me Parris Campbell at 34 and a guy like Isabella in the 3rd, and you've got lightning in a bottle.

This scenario is probably dependent upon what success the Colts have in free agency. If they sign a free agent WR , they don't pick two in this draft. 

[shasta519]

59 minutes ago, Hoose said:

I've begun to think like this as well. There is an opportunity to set yourself up for years to come at WR. Give me Parris Campbell at 34 and a guy like Isabella in the 3rd, and you've got lightning in a bottle.

This scenario is probably dependent upon what success the Colts have in free agency. If they sign a free agent WR , they don't pick two in this draft. 

 

That's partly why I am not in favor of spending a bunch of money on Williams...if it's going to alter the draft strategy.  I think the upside of WRs in this draft are higher than anyone in FA. 

 

So I think the better course would be to draft two WRs...bring back Inman and sign someone like Parker to a short-term deal.  

 

Regardless of what they do in FA...they should consider the long-term in that Hilton is aging and a FA soon...Fountain has major question marks and Cain is an unknown. Getting two legit WRs in this draft could pay huge dividends. 

[Matabix]

On 3/6/2019 at 11:50 AM, stitches said:

@Superman Can I suggest a receiver to watch? Watch Preston Williams from Colorado State(transfer from Tennessee). I've have yet to finish his evaluation but the little I've seen he seems really intriguing to me, also multiple draft analysts seem to think he's a 1st-2nd round level receiver on the field. But his off-the field issues(multiple) and ACL tear from several years ago are likely to drop him to day 3.

 

He is big, athletic and dynamic after the catch and great in the air for contested catches. Big time red zone target. 

 

On 3/6/2019 at 11:51 AM, Superman said:

 

Yeah he's on my list, but I haven't watched him yet, either.

Get crackin you two. I don't watch college but this guy caught my eye in October. I would like a run down and your thoughts.

[Superman]

@stitches @Matabix

 

Preston Williams looks good. He's raw, has some hands issues, doesn't run a lot of routes, but he's big and strong, talented, good catch radius, able blocker. He gets pretty good separation at times, sometimes he looks like he's off balance coming off the line, I'm not sure he can handle press in the NFL. Good change of direction, good ability after the catch. He doesn't physically dominate as much as he should for his size, doesn't track the ball very well, but he has flashes of brilliance. 

 

He's a Brian Decker evaluation for sure. Got into trouble, altercation with a woman, then transferred to a smaller school. Also had the ACL. His talent and size probably make him a 4th/5th round prospect. He didn't exactly light the world on fire at his pro day: 4.55 second forty, 31 inch vertical... We'll see if teams sign off on him, or let him go undrafted.

[stitches]

Dropping this one here:

 

 

 

[shasta519]

4 hours ago, stitches said:

Dropping this one here:

 

 

 

 

Beastly. I had almost forgotten how fun it was to watch Megatron.

[Surge89]

5 hours ago, stitches said:

Dropping this one here:

 

 

 

 

I've never hated Metcalf and I hope he succeeds but I find myself questioning why spend a first round pick on a proven one trick pony?

 

It would be different if he had amazing hands and a system that showed he could do more than what he showed but the facts are he doesn't and he didn't.  Imo if I'm a GM I'm in the business of finding dynamic players based on factual evidence with talent and production.  I'm not a fortune teller...  But it is true you could gamble on this guy and strike gold.  I'd just say if my job depended on it I would take Butler Brown or Neal before I'd take Metcalf. 

 

Either way I hope he does big things in this league because he seems like a good kid (just not with an AFC team please). 

[DougDew]

AJ Brown

Deebo Samuel

Terry McLaurin, mid rounds.

[twfish]

5 hours ago, stitches said:

Dropping this one here:

 

 

 

I watched this one today. Hes definitely one of my more respected youtubers, but I'd love to actually have a conversation with him about D.K

[ClaytonColt]

Miles Boykin and Kelvin Harmon seem like the sort of guys who fit into the Ballard vision. Really like both of them.

[Shive]

When I'm looking at our WR room and what was missing last year, it's absolutely someone to move the chains and keep drives alive. As soon as Doyle went down, we really struggled. With that in mind, my eye has been towards possession style WRs. Riley Ridley and Andy Isabella are two that I love. Ridley isn't an athletic freak or anything, but he just has such a technical feel for how to effectively play WR. He consistently gets separation, despite his lack of raw speed, by using his technical skill and physicality.

 

Isabella is just explosive. Lightning fast, but also very technically sound.

 

They both check a lot of boxes for the type of WR our offense needs.

[Superman]

Must read from Greg Cosell on AJ Brown and N'Keal Harry. He sees what I saw (that means I'm as good as Cosell, officially).

 

 

[chad72]

16 minutes ago, Superman said:

Must read from Greg Cosell on AJ Brown and N'Keal Harry. He sees what I saw (that means I'm as good as Cosell, officially).

 

 

 

It would be a crime to pass on AJ if he was sitting there at No.34, IMO.

[stitches]

16 minutes ago, Superman said:

Must read from Greg Cosell on AJ Brown and N'Keal Harry. He sees what I saw (that means I'm as good as Cosell, officially).

 

 

Cosell is awesome. Don't always agree with him, but you can count on him to provide valuable perspective and opinion based on legitimate tape analysis. He does his homework. Last year for example he was pretty much the only analyst hyping Darius Leonard as a potential superstar in the league. With all the Roquan Smiths and LVEs and Trumaine Edmunds' of the world getting the attention, it was South Carolina State Darius Leonard that was his favorite LB from the draft.  

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

It would be a crime to pass on AJ if he was sitting there at No.34, IMO.

 

Maybe even #26, depending on who else is on the board.

[Mr. Too Proud]

Riley Ridley?

[Superman]

Just now, Mr. Too Proud said:

Riley Ridley?

 

I haven't gotten back to Ridley yet. Don't know if Cosell has posted anything on him so far...

[Barry Sears]

There's another thread on Stanley Morgan, Jr. of Nebraska.  I was impressed with the video posted.  I'm not as in tune as you guys and I guess he's a mid-to-late round pick.  But, if we go defense in our first 3 picks because of how the draft unfolds, I though Morgan looked very good as a later round pick.

[Superman]

5 minutes ago, Barry Sears said:

There's another thread on Stanley Morgan, Jr. of Nebraska.  I was impressed with the video posted.  I'm not as in tune as you guys and I guess he's a mid-to-late round pick.  But, if we go defense in our first 3 picks because of how the draft unfolds, I though Morgan looked very good as a later round pick.

 

I haven't watched Morgan at all. I'm looking forward to it now, though.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Anyone know where this guy is projected to go in the draft?

 

 

[stitches]

8 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Anyone know where this guy is projected to go in the draft?

 

 

Very wide range. Late 2nd to 4th round. He's a bit of a weird evaluation. Explosive and can separate, but doesn't have great ball-skills... doesn't track the ball well, doesn't catch the ball away from his body, lets it into his body way too much and thus is not great in contested catch situations. Has some YAC ability due to his athleticism. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Very wide range. Late 2nd to 4th round. He's a bit of a weird evaluation. Explosive and can separate, but doesn't have great ball-skills... doesn't track the ball well, doesn't catch the ball away from his body, lets it into his body way too much and thus is not great in contested catch situations. Has some YAC ability due to his athleticism. 

Seems like those things could be fixed with a good nfl coach and good wide receiver coach. Wouldn’t that be something to draft a hometown kid.

[stitches]

11 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Seems like those things could be fixed with a good nfl coach and good wide receiver coach. Wouldn’t that be something to draft a hometown kid.

I'm not sure how much this can be fixed. Some of it might, but I doubt it becomes a strength. He doesn't seem to have natural instincts for tracking the ball and is consistently late to react to it. 

 

The good thing is he is fast and he does have some nice route running ability. I wouldn't mind drafting him for sure, but IMO the value for him is good late 3d-4th round rather than in the second.