2019 WR draft / film notes

[MikeCurtis]

Just now, Matthew Gilbert said:

I'd be shocked if Isabella makes it out of the second round.

I was thinking 3rd, but you may be right

[MikeCurtis]

4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I don’t remember the website...  but it was in an article about boom or bust players.    The segment in Butler talked about his 16 percent drop rate.  Stopped me in my tracks.  

 

If I find that story again,  I’ll link it.

Thats painful

 

Do you remember H. Bey a WR that was tall and could run an amazing 40 time?

 

He played for the Colts and I think he may still be on the Steelers

 

I wonder if Butler is a bit like that....

 

You would think that there would be drills to improve that

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

52 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/devin-funchess/

 

Oh...   you scared me there for a moment.   I thought you were talking about a college kid that I liked...   like Isabella...

 

As for Funchess,  I don’t know how you missed it, but I tried to write this in as many posts as I could...

 

I don’t like Funchess.   Never have.  Not in college, not in the NFL.   And I don’t like the signing.   Said so over and over.

 

But... 

 

I trust Ballard and Reich.  They worked wonders with Ebron.   13 TD’s.  He still had lots of drops for the Colts, but we survived them.   I think most people now feel the Ebron signing was a good one.  I do.  So Ballard and Reich get the benefit of the doubt from me.  It’s only a one year deal, so I’m looking forward to seeing what Funchess does for the Colts.   

 

Hopefully,  the upside outweighs the downside...

[RNGDShobby]

14 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I'd be shocked if Isabella makes it out of the second round.

I see him and Campbell going around the same time... end of 2nd, top of 3rd. I would not be averse to either with 59. I'm still rooting for a trade down and getting a 2nd and 3rd (plus some) for our 1st.

[MikeCurtis]

1 minute ago, RNGDShobby said:

I see him and Campbell going around the same time... end of 2nd, top of 3rd. I would not be averse to either with 59. I'm still rooting for a trade down and getting a 2nd and 3rd (plus some) for our 1st.

I think Campbell will go early in round 2

 

Isabella , I would agree with your assessment

 

[EastStreet]

34 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I think Campbell will go early in round 2

 

Isabella , I would agree with your assessment

 

isabella is moving up, in several big boards used in simulators, he's going around 40ish. 

other WRs are dropping. IIRC Campbell is rising too.

[BOTT]

9 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Yeah...    I’ve seen projections for the kid that are all over the map.    

 

Question for you?    Was this a recent podcast?    Like,  after the combine?  Just curious if this is the latest viewpoint or perhaps something outdated?   Sometimes these evaluations change quickly.  

 

Just asking.....

Recent.....Tuesday or Wednesday I believe.

 

Kiper was all about a slot receiver from Toledo. Can't recall his name , but I don't think I've heard him mentioned on the forum.

[BOTT]

59 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I think Campbell will go early in round 2

 

Isabella , I would agree with your assessment

 

I think Campbell may slip into round 1. Some offensive coaches are going to fall in love with that guy.

[MikeCurtis]

7 minutes ago, BOTT said:

I think Campbell may slip into round 1. Some offensive coaches are going to fall in love with that guy.

You may be right.... one mock had NE taking him

 

Sheeze....... thanks for giving me something else to worry about 

 

 

[stitches]

11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

For what little it’s worth...   I’ve removed two wide receivers completely from my board.   And I’ve liked both of them for months.

 

First is Butler.   I love the body, the speed, the arms and hand size...   but the BIG FLAW is catching ability. 

 

Saw an article a few days ago about Boom or Bust players...  under Butler it said his “drop” rate was.... (drum roll...) over 16 percent!  That’s one out if every six passes.   That’s possibly worse than Darrius Hayward-Bay.  

 

Hands can be improved a modest amount, but when they’re this bad,  it’s an ez no thanks for me.

 

The other player is Dillon Mitchell.  In his NFL.com bio, it states that those within the Oregon program openly question just how important football really is to Mitchell.   Talented?  Yes.  Hard working and dedicated?   No.  Hell, no!   Can there be a more damning thing to say about a player?   I don’t think so.   The exact opposite of what Ballard looks for.  (Sigh...) 

 

No terrible hands.   No terrible attitudes for me.   Poof!  Gone!

 

Yeah... I'm on the record that I think drops are overrated by fans but 16%(if true) is truly worrying stat. I honestly haven't seen his hands being a problem on tape. He had some concentration drops, but he does well attacking the football, high pointing it, catching it away from his body. 16% though... wow! I guess I have to rewatch his games. That's like every 6th pass should be a drop. 

 

About Mitchell... I have no idea how to evaluate those things, that's why I'm resigning myself to just watching the tape and leaving the intel to the people with the resources. 

 

edit: just watched his Texas tape again:

 

 

He has one drop at 5:55, but just look at how many great NFL-type catches he had before that. I will keep watching other film, but so far I still think the playmaking ability is great and if I had to have 1 drop every game like this one for performances like this, I'm OK with it. And this is not even a particularly excellent game for him. It's run of the mill 99 yard game where his QB was under pressure and running for his life for most of it. 

[NewColtsFan]

1 minute ago, stitches said:

Yeah... I'm on the record that I think drops are overrated by fans but 16%(if true) is truly worrying stat. I honestly haven't seen his hands being a problem on tape. He had some concentration drops, but he does well attacking the football, high pointing it, catching it away from his body. 16% though... wow! I guess I have to rewatch his games. That's like every 6th pass should be a drop. 

 

About Mitchell... I have no idea how to evaluate those things, that's why I'm resigning myself to just watching the tape and leaving the intel to the people with the resources. 

 

edit: just watched his Texas tape again:

 

 

He has one drop at 5:55, but just look at how many great NFL-type catches he had before that. I will keep watching other film, but so far I still think the playmaking ability is great and if I had to have 1 drop every game like this one for performances like this, I'm OK with it. 

 

No doubt....   Butler makes plenty of NFL-level catches.   I've seen several of his tapes and they're full of them.   That's why I fell in love with him.   But those are his high-lite tapes.    I'd love someone to put together a montage of his drops.   Let's see the worst of him.  

 

Zierlein made reference of "drop after drop after drop."     But I had no idea it was at 16%.   Yikes!

 

I know Ballard and Reich aren't afraid of some drops....   but at some point,  one would think they would no longer be acceptable?

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

5 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Butler was my January February 2nd round pick

 

I still like  him, but think Campbell may be a better pick for this team

 

Where do you find drop %? There were comments, but I never saw the actual numbers on Butler

 

I watched every Buckeye game, and I dont remember a single drop from Campbell

 

Campbell could end up an amazing player

 

He brings a jet sweep talent that is tough to defend

 

He is also built like a RB........

 

 

 

 

 

Ebron was a great pickup..... but his drops ARE maddening

 

(I wouldnt throw to him on 3rd down)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I personally wouldn't take a WR at 34.   I don't want any offensive player at 34, unless Ballard stumbles into a first round level talent that somehow fell to 34.

 

I'd prefer to go defense and defense at 26 and 34.

 

And I'd be willing to go offense at pick 59.    I'd be fine with a WR and I'd be fine with an OL or even a TE.     

 

I'd also be fine if we went defense here and put off offense to pick 89.

 

I'd also be fine if we went straight defense and waited until R4 and R5 for offense.

 

All sorts of possibilities....

 

[MikeCurtis]

5 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I personally wouldn't take a WR at 34.   I don't want any offensive player at 34, unless Ballard stumbles into a first round level talent that somehow fell to 34.

 

I'd prefer to go defense and defense at 26 and 34.

 

And I'd be willing to go offense at pick 59.    I'd be fine with a WR and I'd be fine with an OL or even a TE.     

 

I'd also be fine if we went defense here and put off offense to pick 89.

 

I'd also be fine if we went straight defense and waited until R4 and R5 for offense.

 

All sorts of possibilities....

 

I think one of the SS, may be an option at 34 as well

 

I also wouldnt rule out them going OT, if one of the top ones slid to that spot 

 

I WANT an awesome DL player to be there (and at 26) I just dont see how the board lines up that way

 

When I see a good DL and a very good SS available, I would want to pull the trigger on the SS, especially at 34

 

With the way the board would APPEAR to be lining up, IMHO if we were to go DL (especially on the 34 pick) we would be getting a J.A.G.

 

In the 26 and 34 spots there should be some excellent WRs (3-4 choices), SS (3-4 choices), OL (2-3 choices) and a few DL (1 or 2), and possibly a LB (C'mon Bush), that should still be available and worthy of the draft position at that time.  ........ and even a TE

 

The thing about TEs, CB LOVES them...... right now, .......he is eating his post toasties, thinking about a play where the TE is involved

 

Our current roster has ONE TE that catches well AND blocks well............

Doyle

 

Evidently Alli- Cox is picking the blocking side up, to go with his receiving side

 

I DOUBT that he goes TE, but CB will stick with his board

 

 

[stitches]

 

[Matthew Gilbert]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

 

Nasa pen? I had to listen to a six minute video for that? C'mon man! Lol I'm just messing with you. Player comps are one of my favorite things about the draft. And for the record Lance Zierlien is not good at it. In the video they brought up names like Brandin Cooks and Tyreek Hill, Cooks seems like a fairly accurate comp to me. And they are right not to compare him to Welker, Edelmann, and Amendola because they just not his game.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Wide Receiver rankings from Chris Landry (no details scouting reports posted yet)

 

These are just talent rankings by a pro scout, and NFL and college consultant.  One would need interviews, medical info, scheme assessment to prioritize a better team fit order (or if a player gets taken off)

 

7.4 – 7.0 = Superstar Ability   (0)
7.4 = 1st Pick Value
None

7.0 = Definite Top 5 Pick
None

6.9 – 6.5 = Immediate Starter  (2)
6.9 = Early 1st Round
None

6.5 = Mid to Late 1st Round Value (2)

1. MARQUISE BROWN–OKLAHOMA
2. D.K. METCALF–OLE MISS

 

6.4 – 6.0 = Potential Starter  (8)
6.4 = Early 2nd Round Value  (4)
3. RILEY RIDLEY–GEORGIA
4. AJ BROWN–OLE MISS
5. N’KEAL HARRY–ARIZONA STATE
6. DEEBO SAMUEL–SOUTH CAROLINA

 

6.0 = Mid to Late 2nd Round Value  (4)
7. PARRIS CAMPBELL–OHIO STATE
8. KELVIN HARMON–NORTH CAROLINA STATE
9. JJ ARCEGA WHITESIDE–STANFORD
10. HAKEEM BUTLER–IOWA STATE

 

5.9 – 5.5 = Has a chance to make and Contribute (22)
5.9 = 3rd Round Value  (8)
11. PENNY HART–GEORGIA SOUTHERN (SL)
12. TERRY MCLAURIN–OHIO STATE
13. EMMANUEL HALL–MISSOURI
14. KEELAN DOSS–CAL DAVIS
15. ANTHONY JOHNSON–BUFFALO
16. JALEN HURD–BAYLOR
17. ANDY ISABELLA–UMASS (SL)
18. TERRY GODWIN–GEORGIA

 

5.5 = 4th Round Value (14)
19. LIL JORDAN HUMPHREY–TEXAS
20. JABOBI MEYERS–NORTH CAROLINA STATE
21. MILES BOYKIN–NOTRE DAME
22. DAVID SILLS–WEST VIRGINIA
23. ANTOINE WESLEY–TEXAS TECH
24. DARIUS SLAYTON–AUBURN
25. MECOLE HARDMAN–GEORGIA
26. DAMARKUS LODGE–OLE MISS
27. KEESEAN JOHNSON–FRESNO STATE
28. ANTHONY RATLIFF-WILLIAMS—NORTH CAROLINA
29. ANTOINE WESLEY–TEXAS TECH
30. JAZZ FERGUSON–NORTHWESTERN ST-LA
31. DILLON MITCHELL–OREGON
32. STANLEY MORGAN JR–NEBRASKA

 

5.4 – 5.0 = Potential back up Contributor/Roster Player  (39)
5.4 = 5th to 6th Round Value   (13)
33. TYRE BRADY–MARSHALL
34. JAMAL CUSTIS–SYRACUSE
35. TRAVIS FULGHAM–OLD DOMINION
36. HUNTER RENFROW–CLEMSON
37. CODY THOMPSON–TOLEDO
38. GARY JENNINGS JR–WEST VIRGINIA
39. GREG DORTCH–WAKE FOREST
40. PRESTON WILLIAMS–COLORADO STATE
41. DIONTAE JOHNSON–TOLEDO
42. OLAMIDE ZACCHEAUS–VIRGINIA
43. FELTON DAVIS III–MICHIGAN STATE
44. NYQWAN MURRAY–FLORIDA STATE
45. PRESTON WILLIAMS–COLORADO STATE

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm only showing to round 6
 

[throwing BBZ]

9 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Wide Receiver rankings from Chris Landry (no details scouting reports posted yet)

 

These are just talent rankings by a pro scout, and NFL and college consultant.  One would need interviews, medical info, scheme assessment to prioritize a better team fit order (or if a player gets taken off)

 

7.4 – 7.0 = Superstar Ability   (0)
7.4 = 1st Pick Value
None

7.0 = Definite Top 5 Pick
None

6.9 – 6.5 = Immediate Starter  (2)
6.9 = Early 1st Round
None

6.5 = Mid to Late 1st Round Value (2)

1. MARQUISE BROWN–OKLAHOMA
2. D.K. METCALF–OLE MISS

 

6.4 – 6.0 = Potential Starter  (8)
6.4 = Early 2nd Round Value  (4)
3. RILEY RIDLEY–GEORGIA
4. AJ BROWN–OLE MISS
5. N’KEAL HARRY–ARIZONA STATE
6. DEEBO SAMUEL–SOUTH CAROLINA

 

6.0 = Mid to Late 2nd Round Value  (4)
7. PARRIS CAMPBELL–OHIO STATE
8. KELVIN HARMON–NORTH CAROLINA STATE
9. JJ ARCEGA WHITESIDE–STANFORD
10. HAKEEM BUTLER–IOWA STATE

 

5.9 – 5.5 = Has a chance to make and Contribute (22)
5.9 = 3rd Round Value  (8)
11. PENNY HART–GEORGIA SOUTHERN (SL)
12. TERRY MCLAURIN–OHIO STATE
13. EMMANUEL HALL–MISSOURI
14. KEELAN DOSS–CAL DAVIS
15. ANTHONY JOHNSON–BUFFALO
16. JALEN HURD–BAYLOR
17. ANDY ISABELLA–UMASS (SL)
18. TERRY GODWIN–GEORGIA

 

5.5 = 4th Round Value (14)
19. LIL JORDAN HUMPHREY–TEXAS
20. JABOBI MEYERS–NORTH CAROLINA STATE
21. MILES BOYKIN–NOTRE DAME
22. DAVID SILLS–WEST VIRGINIA
23. ANTOINE WESLEY–TEXAS TECH
24. DARIUS SLAYTON–AUBURN
25. MECOLE HARDMAN–GEORGIA
26. DAMARKUS LODGE–OLE MISS
27. KEESEAN JOHNSON–FRESNO STATE
28. ANTHONY RATLIFF-WILLIAMS—NORTH CAROLINA
29. ANTOINE WESLEY–TEXAS TECH
30. JAZZ FERGUSON–NORTHWESTERN ST-LA
31. DILLON MITCHELL–OREGON
32. STANLEY MORGAN JR–NEBRASKA

 

5.4 – 5.0 = Potential back up Contributor/Roster Player  (39)
5.4 = 5th to 6th Round Value   (13)
33. TYRE BRADY–MARSHALL
34. JAMAL CUSTIS–SYRACUSE
35. TRAVIS FULGHAM–OLD DOMINION
36. HUNTER RENFROW–CLEMSON
37. CODY THOMPSON–TOLEDO
38. GARY JENNINGS JR–WEST VIRGINIA
39. GREG DORTCH–WAKE FOREST
40. PRESTON WILLIAMS–COLORADO STATE
41. DIONTAE JOHNSON–TOLEDO
42. OLAMIDE ZACCHEAUS–VIRGINIA
43. FELTON DAVIS III–MICHIGAN STATE
44. NYQWAN MURRAY–FLORIDA STATE
45. PRESTON WILLIAMS–COLORADO STATE

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'm only showing to round 6
 

 

 Thank you. I think this will be great for pre and post draft analysis.
And of course to look at in 3 years.

[ColtsBlueFL]

6 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Thank you. I think this will be great for pre and post draft analysis.
And of course to look at in 3 years.

 

Sure.  I'll post his for each position.  I think his FB (dying breed!), TE, and QB are up in his private war room/site now.  I'll get those up (just to round 6 w/o details) soon.

[ty4atd]

18 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/devin-funchess/

He had 3-5 between different places you look, drops in one game this year against the Falcons playing injured, the season before he had a 4.5%. He had one very bad game but he's got good hands.

[EastStreet]

13 minutes ago, ty4atd said:

He had 3-5 between different places you look, drops in one game this year against the Falcons playing injured, the season before he had a 4.5%. He had one very bad game but he's got good hands.

Most Carolina and Michigan fans would strongly disagree. NFL.com described him as a prospect with below average hands coming out of college. 

Had 20 drops in three seasons at UM.

And he's always had a sub par to very bad catch rate in both pro and college.

It's well documented he catches the ball with his body to much. He's actually better when balls are thrown away from his numbers. below are catch rate stats.

 

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving/2016/all

[ty4atd]

His catch rate has always lined up with Newton's completion percentage he's an erratic passer, he's no all star but the season before he had one of the best drop rates in the NFL.

[Colt Overseas]

I think if one wants a solid bet on who we will draft next month, Terry McLaurin is the guy. I'd say probably in the middle of the 3rd round, so Ballard may need to trade up, like last year when he drafted Tyquan Lewis. That or he trades back from #59.

 

McLaurin checks all the boxes we know Ballard really loves in a player:

• Stand out senior bowl week
• Team captain and high character
• Interviewed really well
• Hard worker to get where he is 
• Great athlete, tested really well at the combine

 

He also is a good fit, can play in the slot and on the boundary. Very nice separator.

 

He said at the combine that he has met with the Colts 'multiple times at the senior bowl, a couple of times at the combine and that they will probably invite him to their local day as well'.

 

Also a big Colts fan himself, his dad was a season ticket holder, that's very cool.

 

 

[stitches]

 

[DougDew]

6 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Not surprised.  In a sea of no stand out WRs, the athletic type will rise.  JMO.

[EastStreet]

Saw today NFL.com talking about Jalen Hurd. I mentioned him as a sleeper in late rounds in this or another thread. Really raw convert from RB that had great years both at RB (TN) and WR (OR). Likely a project, but definitely a high upside.

[shasta519]

On 3/24/2019 at 5:35 PM, Colt Overseas said:

I think if one wants a solid bet on who we will draft next month, Terry McLaurin is the guy. I'd say probably in the middle of the 3rd round, so Ballard may need to trade up, like last year when he drafted Tyquan Lewis. That or he trades back from #59.

 

McLaurin checks all the boxes we know Ballard really loves in a player:

• Stand out senior bowl week
• Team captain and high character
• Interviewed really well
• Hard worker to get where he is 
• Great athlete, tested really well at the combine

 

He also is a good fit, can play in the slot and on the boundary. Very nice separator.

 

He said at the combine that he has met with the Colts 'multiple times at the senior bowl, a couple of times at the combine and that they will probably invite him to their local day as well'.

 

Also a big Colts fan himself, his dad was a season ticket holder, that's very cool.

 

 

 

The biggest box of all is college production though. And he doesn't check it...aside from a decent senior season. It's a big time indicator for success at the NFL level...and yet very few talk about it. WRs don't just come out of nowhere like McLaurin.

 

You will be hard-pressed to find a single good WR in the NFL that wasn't very productive in college. Michael Thomas comes to mind...but I am not willing to bet McLaurin is the next Michael Thomas. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

On 3/27/2019 at 12:26 PM, stitches said:

 

 

Just pointing out Chris Landry was on top of this early.  He has Deebo 48th ranked player on horizontal board,  and 6th WR with an early 2nd round grade (6.4).

 

3. RILEY RIDLEY–GEORGIA
4. AJ BROWN–OLE MISS
5. N’KEAL HARRY–ARIZONA STATE
6. DEEBO SAMUEL–SOUTH CAROLINA

 

4 hours ago, Irish YJ said:

Saw today NFL.com talking about Jalen Hurd. I mentioned him as a sleeper in late rounds in this or another thread. Really raw convert from RB that had great years both at RB (TN) and WR (OR). Likely a project, but definitely a high upside.

 

Landry has him at #132 overall (Isabella at #135!) and 3rd round value (5.9) and 16th WR, Isabella 17th.

 

16. JALEN HURD–BAYLOR
17. ANDY ISABELLA–UMASS (SL)

 

 

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Landry has him at #132 overall (Isabella at #135!)

 

 

 

purely my opinion, but no way Isabella makes it to 135. he won't make it to 100 IMO.

Going to say he's in the 55-85 range.

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

6 minutes ago, Irish YJ said:

 

purely my opinion, but no way Isabella makes it to 135. he won't make it to 100 IMO.

Going to say he's in the 55-85 range.

 

 

135 is horizontal board, top to bottom from all positions.  Isabella has Landry's 3rd round grade, and I also had seen this-

 

"Scouts aren't comparing Isabella to slot stalwarts like Wes Welker or Danny Amendola. Instead, they're invoking names like T.Y. Hilton and Brandin Cooks, two smaller receivers whose speed makes them explosive outside threats. An area scout representing an NFC team said Isabella projects as a third-round pick, while an AFC team scout believes he'll go in Round 2."

 

Everyone has differing opinions.  I'm waiting for detailed scouting reports.  Especially from Landry and his team of scouts.

[RNGDShobby]

On 3/28/2019 at 5:26 AM, stitches said:

 

I'd be happy with Deebo at 34. Think he has real potential at NFL level. Especially in the slot.

[EastStreet]

1 minute ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

135 is horizontal board, top to bottom from all positions.  Isabella has Landry's 3rd round grade, and I also had seen this-

 

"Scouts aren't comparing Isabella to slot stalwarts like Wes Welker or Danny Amendola. Instead, they're invoking names like T.Y. Hilton and Brandin Cooks, two smaller receivers whose speed makes them explosive outside threats. An area scout representing an NFC team said Isabella projects as a third-round pick, while an AFC team scout believes he'll go in Round 2."

 

Everyone has differing opinions.  I'm waiting for detailed scouting reports.  Especially from Landry and his team of scouts.

I see Isabella as the same. He's a #1 or #2 WR, not slot. I'd love to have Isabella opposite TY, with Funchess running slot. That combine with Ebron would be beastly and fast as hell. 

[EastStreet]

This is where I'm at in terms of pure need.

I might flip WR and iDL just because of what is likely available and the depth, not because of need. But definitely WR and iDL with the first two picks. 

 

I might say that #3 is S/OL/CB BPA as well. 

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

The nice  thing about WR is you can get a stud in the second or third round. No reason to use a 1st. Just look where guys like TY and AB were drafted. I bet there are a lot receivers that are very good and stars that did not go in the first round.

[Finball]

On ‎3‎/‎23‎/‎2019 at 7:58 PM, NewColtsFan said:

For what little it’s worth...   I’ve removed two wide receivers completely from my board.   And I’ve liked both of them for months.

 

First is Butler.   I love the body, the speed, the arms and hand size...   but the BIG FLAW is catching ability. 

 

Saw an article a few days ago about Boom or Bust players...  under Butler it said his “drop” rate was.... (drum roll...) over 16 percent!  That’s one out if every six passes.   That’s possibly worse than Darrius Hayward-Bay.  

 

Hands can be improved a modest amount, but when they’re this bad,  it’s an ez no thanks for me.

 

 

 

His hands aren't bad. Concentration issue, yes. Hands issue, no.

[NewColtsFan]

2 hours ago, Finball said:

 

His hands aren't bad. Concentration issue, yes. Hands issue, no.

 

First,  even if I accept your view,  I'm not sure I feel any better.    A 16% drop rate is staggering.

 

If all of that goes to concentration, then it's still a major problem.

 

As for your view,  how does on know how much to blame on concentration and how much to blame on hands?

 

I double checked the Lance Zierlein profile...    and it did talk about concentration issues.   And it also talked about him being a body catcher.    Body catchers scare me.   They're not trusting their hands.

 

His raw tools are dazzling.   It's what attracted me in the first place.    But that drop rate is eye popping and not in a good way.....

 

Always appreciate your view.

 

[Finball]

17 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

First,  even if I accept your view,  I'm not sure I feel any better.    A 16% drop rate is staggering.

 

If all of that goes to concentration, then it's still a major problem.

 

As for your view,  how does on know how much to blame on concentration and how much to blame on hands?

 

I double checked the Lance Zierlein profile...    and it did talk about concentration issues.   And it also talked about him being a body catcher.    Body catchers scare me.   They're not trusting their hands.

 

His raw tools are dazzling.   It's what attracted me in the first place.    But that drop rate is eye popping and not in a good way.....

 

Always appreciate your view.

 

 

I blame it more on concentration because he makes quite a bit great catches as well, contested and uncontested. He's one of the best contested guys at this draft. He does use his body to catch the ball a bit too much but he can do it with just his hands and I personally wouldn't classify him as a body catcher. Anyway body catchers don't bother me as much as others as long as that's not the only way they can catch the ball. Antonio Brown uses his body a lot to secure the ball. As long as you catch it, I don't care how you do it. 

 

His drop rate is terrible and he has lot of bad drops on the film but otherwise his tape is mostly pretty good and he has great traits. Brandon Marshall, Mike Evans, Crabtree etc. struggled with drops too but have combined those with great catches as well. They don't/didn't have bad hands. But I think it's more mental/lack of experience/technique related and can be improved. (Naturally) Bad hands are something that's really hard to improve. I agree with you there, those guys are no-drafts for me, especially in the early rounds. I don't think that's the case here though.

 

While it shouldn't directly contribute to drops and isn't really an excuse, he also suffered from bad QB play. Per PFF of his 1318 rec Yards, 1072 were on throws farther than 10 yards. And 301 of them were YAC. I think his big play threat ability easily neutralizes the drops he had (11 on 71 catchable targets). 

[stitches]

 

^Target yards added

 

https://www.bigblueview.com/2019/2/6/18213999/nfl-draft-target-yards-added-for-2019-wide-receiver-class

 

Quote

 

NFL Draft: Target Yards Added for 2019 wide receiver class

 

A dive into advanced stats for the draft-eligible receivers

 

 

Evaluating draft-eligible wide receivers can be a tricky task, especially when looking at the numbers. College offenses are all over the place in terms of how often they throw, which can lead to a wild variance in production.

 

Knowing it can be tricky to isolate a receiver’s role in a college offense, I started putting together a metric called Target Yards Added to attempt just that. It’s a fairly simple metric mathematically, taking a wide receiver’s yards per target and subtracting his team’s passing yards per attempt to get an idea of what that receiver added to the offense.

 

Over the past few years, I’ve found Target Yards Added to be a good guideline to dig further into wide receivers. It’s not intended to be a ranking proxy — the top wide receiver in Target Yards Added doesn’t translate to being my WR1 in the draft. But it does help add some color to wide receiver production throughout the evaluation process. Let’s take a look at this year’s draft class and break down what it means.

 

Shout out to Sports Info Solutions, whose data made this significantly easier to put together than in years past. Should also note some players like Keelan Doss of UC Davis are not included because FCS schools are still in the statistical stone age when it comes to things like targets.

 

...[read more on the link above]

 

 

Emanuel Hall is a player I need to do more work on, but the little I've seen is very impressive. 

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I just watched 4 games(Florida 2018, Wyoming 2018, Tennessee 2017, Georgia 2017) of Emanuel Hall. Hall doesn't have natural hands... you know how people say "it's not his hands, it's concentration drops" ... IMO Hall just doesn't have natural catching ability. He lets the ball get into his body way too often. He bobbles the ball way too often. I don't have his drops stats, but wouldn't be surprised if it's high. 

 

With that said... I love the rest of his game. He has suddenness in his route running and while not polished you can see the rudiments of a very solid route runner. Explosive in and out of his breaks. Watch him beat press-man repeatedly in the Florida 2017 game. His physical profile and athleticism are impressive and you can see them on tape too... he separates through speed downfield and tracks the ball very well in the air and he does get to some highly thrown balls(Drew Lock has similar inaccuracy issues to Josh Allen from last year) with his impressive vertical leap. 

 

He can also make people miss after the catch. He is sudden and explosive with ball in his hands. WOW. 

 

I am way too late on Hall. He looks exquisite ... with the exception of his hands. I am not sure how high he will end up for me and how much to ding him for his questionable catching ability but the rest of his tape is very promising. Future outside receiver in the league... if he can catch enough balls to win his coach's trust. 

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JJ Arcega-Whiteside just ran 4.49 official at Stanford's pro-day... Absolute win for him. 

 

 

 

 

 

@Superman Thoughts? 

 

Someone actually had him clocked at 4.38 initially and I was about to go insane, but then the official times came in and this was more reasonable even if still surprisingly fast. 

[krunk]

This draft seems like its just raining WRs.  Even if you wait until the 4th round to get one you will likely get a very good prospect.   I don't feel the same way about the Edge Rushers. I feel like after Round 1 and maybe parts of 2 I don't see a whole lot of guys that I'm really in love with.