My keys to beating the Chiefs

[CR91]

1.Limit their big plays

 

If Im the colts, I am not letting Tyreek Hill beat us. I am putting Desir or Wilson on him everywhere he goes with safety help over the top. Push Tyreek against the sideline and keep him in the zone of the safety. We need to hit Tyreek every time he trys to catch a pass and hit him hard. 

 

2. Mahomes's Inexperience

 

Everyone is talking up Mahomes like hes the next greatest and failing to mention the reality. The guy is basically a rookie playing in his first playoff game. That is a different animal. The pressure and the atmosphere of the moment is real. First time QBs win in the playoffs if they have a top defense to cover their mistakes and that is not the case here. All the pressure is gonna be on him to win this game and we need to take advantage of that.

 

3.Make Mahomes Uncomfortable

 

We all know what Mahomes likes to do and that is take the deep shot and make a big play. That is not gonna work in a tampa 2. You can't go deep and throw into the deep zones. I am telling you right now, Mahomes will take a shot and Hooker will pick him off. I promise you that will happen. Mahomes is not a dink and dunk QB. Hes not patient enough to play that game and eventually he will pull the trigger and it will backfire.

 

4.Control the Clock

 

We need long sustaining drives that last 7-10 mins. Even if it only results in a FG, thats fine. We can not allow this team to have too many possessions. We need to keep this a low scoring game and not play their up tempo game and get into a shoot out. 

 

5.Make Them Play Power Football

 

I think its safe to say that since the Chiefs released Kareem Hunt, their running game has been average at best which is forcing them to rely on Mahomes's arm even more. They want to hit seam busters over the middle to Kelce. They want long bombs to Hill. They want Magic. That is not how you win in January and we are the poster child for that. We need to make them play a power football game which their not comfortable with. We need to set the tone early and hit them in the mouth.

[John Waylon]

1 minute ago, CR91 said:

1.Limit their big plays

 

If Im the colts, I am not letting Tyreek Hill beat us. I am putting Desir or Wilson on him everywhere he goes with safety help over the top. Push Tyreek against the sideline and keep him in the zone of the safety. We need to hit Tyreek every time he trys to catch a pass and hit him hard. 

 

This is the catch 22 they have us in. If we commit that much attention to Hill it’s going to open up Kelce. We struggle to defend TEs. The amount of yards we have given up to TEs in the last 10 games is significant. And none of those TEs we’ve faced have been near Kelce’s level.

 

If we try to cover both that way Mahomes is capable of hitting someone else. 

 

In all honesty I think Kelce is much more dangerous to us in this game than Hill is. We’ve been able to hang with some really good WRs. 

 

We we haven’t had much success stopping any TEs. 

[CR91]

3 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

This is the catch 22 they have us in. If we commit that much attention to Hill it’s going to open up Kelce. We struggle to defend TEs. The amount of yards we have given up to TEs in the last 10 games is significant. And none of those TEs we’ve faced have been near Kelce’s level.

 

If we try to cover both that way Mahomes is capable of hitting someone else. 

 

In all honesty I think Kelce is much more dangerous to us in this game than Hill is. We’ve been able to hang with some really good WRs. 

 

We we haven’t had much success stopping any TEs. 

 

Thats fine. Let them hit Kelce. I rather 10 yard completions to Kelce then 80 yard tds to hill. Wouldn't surprise me to see Geathers and Walker on Kelce every play and have Leonard play the middle to spy on Mahomes.

[John Waylon]

1 minute ago, CR91 said:

 

Thats fine. Let them hit Kelce. I rather 10 yard completions to Kelce then 80 yard tds to hill.

 

8 10 yard passes to Kelce and a TD is the same result. 

 

And it tires our defense out significantly more. 

 

Which makes us even more likely to see that 80 yards TD to Hill later in the game. 

[CR91]

Just now, John Waylon said:

 

8 10 yard passes to Kelce and a TD is the same result. 

 

And it tires our defense out significantly more. 

 

Which makes us even more likely to see that 80 yards TD to Hill later in the game. 

 

Which is why I said put Geathers and Walker on him and have Leonard play the middle.

[Colts1324]

I think this game is simpler than people are making it out to be. Yes, we have to stop Hill and Kelce, but it’s going to come down to two things for both teams: 

 

Red Zone Efficiency(TD’s over FG’s)

Turnover Margin 

 

 

If we win the turnover margin and force them into a couple of FG’s we win this game. If Luck throws a boneheaded pick or two, we’re in big trouble. 

[CR91]

1 minute ago, Colts1324 said:

I think this game is simpler than people are making it out to be. Yes, we have to stop Hill and Kelce, but it’s going to come down to two things for both teams: 

 

Red Zone Efficiency(TD’s over FG’s)

Turnover Margin 

 

 

If we win the turnover margin and force them into a couple of FG’s we win this game. If Luck throws a boneheaded pick or two, we’re in big trouble. 

 

That is any team. Not just the chiefs. Obviously you want to score tds and create turnovers.

[MFT5]

we play a zone based scheme meaning we concede certain parts of the field also as a bi product ...

 

“I knw what i’m giving you, it’s just a matter of when i decide to deviate. What are you gonna do about it”

 

Truthfully believe we’ll control the tempo en this game due to the chiefs defensive woes. 

 

That Wk17 raiders game is alarming

[ManningGM]

See ball. Get ball. Take ball into endzone.

[CR91]

3 minutes ago, MFT5 said:

we play a zone based scheme meaning we concede certain parts of the field also as a bi product ...

 

“I knw what i’m giving you, it’s just a matter of when i decide to deviate. What are you gonna do about it”

 

Truthfully believe we’ll control the tempo en this game due to the chiefs defensive woes. 

 

That Wk17 raiders game is alarming

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in that game. Carr was terrible, but Martin ran for 100 yards.

[MFT5]

Just now, CR91 said:

 

I wouldn't put too much stock in that game. Carr was terrible, but Martin ran for 100 yards.

 

im saying it’s alarming from the chiefs perspective. the raiders really had whatever they wanted against the chiefs.  

[Mr.NotSoCreative]

2 minutes ago, MFT5 said:

we play a zone based scheme meaning we concede certain parts of the field also as a bi product ...

 

“I knw what i’m giving you, it’s just a matter of when i decide to deviate. What are you gonna do about it”

 

Truthfully believe we’ll control the tempo en this game due to the chiefs defensive woes. 

 

That Wk17 raiders game is alarming

Yep and the by product is a lot of completions and yards to tight ends because of taking away deep ball. Kelce might have 10 rec. 100 yds. but that will eat clock and can be lived with. Man it's going to be a fun game.

[CR91]

1 minute ago, ManningGM said:

See ball. Get ball. Take ball into endzone.

 

Thank you for that great analysis Mr. Doctor Professor Patrick

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Mahomes threw a lot of careless passes this year when under pressure. He got very lucky a lot of those were not intercepted. We will see if the magic continues.

[ManningGM]

9 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Thank you for that great analysis Mr. Doctor Professor Patrick

 

 

You're welcome. 

[dodsworth]

The main key to this game and any other game is pressure the QB.

Get Mahomes on roller skates and

Not let him get comfortable in the pocket.......game over.

[Mr.Debonair]

 

 

 

 

[shasta519]

Wilson on Hill seems scares me. I don't think the Colts are going to be doing a lot of man coverage in this game.

 

Edit: Unless they can get after Mahomes.

[coltfaninnewyork]

Play a clean game that helps no turnovers,I am curious to see if we change up a bit on defense play a bit more man to man .Mahomes dices up zone 

[CR91]

3 minutes ago, Mr.Debonair said:

 

 

 

 

 

Im curious to know the ranking of those five defenses.

[Mr.Debonair]

1 minute ago, CR91 said:

 

Im curious to know the ranking of those five defenses.

 

Here you go sir

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, Mr.Debonair said:

 

Here you go sir

 

impressive. Note though, two of those teams beat them.

[Mr.Debonair]

5 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

impressive. Note though, two of those teams beat them.

Thats good to know. I didn't look at the game results just thought the stats were interesting!

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, CR91 said:

 

5.Make Them Play Power Football

 

I think its safe to say that since the Chiefs released Kareem Hunt, their running game has been average at best which is forcing them to rely on Mahomes's arm even more. They want to hit seam busters over the middle to Kelce. They want long bombs to Hill. They want Magic. That is not how you win in January and we are the poster child for that. We need to make them play a power football game which their not comfortable with. We need to set the tone early and hit them in the mouth.

 

This isn't really safe to say. In 11 games with Hunt, they were averaging 4.8 yds/carry, rushing for 116 yds/game and scoring .9 rushing TDs/game.

 

In 5 games without Hunt, they have been averaging 4.8 yds/carry, rushing for 116 yds/game and 1.2 rushing TDs/game.

 

The production on the ground has been basically identical. And keep in mind that two of those five games without Hunt included the stout defenses of BAL and LAC.

 

Mahomes has actually been producing less since Hunt got injured as well. He has attempted more passes per game...but that's mainly because his efficiency has gone down a bit.

 

Not to mention that Damien Williams is definitely a weapon in the passing game like Hunt was.

 

The Colts run defense is stout. But I wouldn't say that KC is uncomfortable playing that type of football. Until Mahomes showed up, Reid basically ran the offense out of the backfield.

[dodsworth]

"In playoff football, you win up 

front!" - Frank Reich 2019

[jameszeigler834]

1 hour ago, John Waylon said:

 

This is the catch 22 they have us in. If we commit that much attention to Hill it’s going to open up Kelce. We struggle to defend TEs. The amount of yards we have given up to TEs in the last 10 games is significant. And none of those TEs we’ve faced have been near Kelce’s level.

 

If we try to cover both that way Mahomes is capable of hitting someone else. 

 

In all honesty I think Kelce is much more dangerous to us in this game than Hill is. We’ve been able to hang with some really good WRs. 

 

We we haven’t had much success stopping any TEs. 

Not every tight end we have played in the last 10 games have killed us sometimes we have got beat for a big gain or two but its not like it has happened every week.

[MB-ColtsFan]

23 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

Wilson on Hill seems scares me. I don't think the Colts are going to be doing a lot of man coverage in this game.

I'm no expert in these things.  Wouldn't you just roll Hooker to the side Hill is on?

 

If I'm not mistaken I thought I saw Leonard lining up against the TE last week a couple of times?

[CR91]

12 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

This isn't really safe to say. In 11 games with Hunt, they were averaging 4.8 yds/carry, rushing for 116 yds/game and scoring .9 rushing TDs/game.

 

In 5 games without Hunt, they have been averaging 4.8 yds/carry, rushing for 116 yds/game and 1.2 rushing TDs/game.

 

The production on the ground has been basically identical. And keep in mind that two of those five games without Hunt included the stout defenses of BAL and LAC.

 

Mahomes has actually been producing less since Hunt got injured as well. He has attempted more passes per game...but that's mainly because his efficiency has gone down a bit.

 

Not to mention that Damien Williams is definitely a weapon in the passing game like Hunt was.

 

The Colts run defense is stout. But I wouldn't say that KC is uncomfortable playing that type of football. Until Mahomes showed up, Reid basically ran the offense out of the backfield.

 

If they can run the ball with Williams, bring it. Colts have shut down way better backs and better running teams. Hunt is way more of a threat in the backfield then Williams.

[CR91]

26 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

Wilson on Hill seems scares me. I don't think the Colts are going to be doing a lot of man coverage in this game.

 

The idea is to get physical with Hill and bracket cover with the safety over the top.

[crazycolt1]

 My key to winning against the Chiefs is having more points than them at the end of the game.

[Dark Superman]

Can't we just score more than the other guys? Lol

[shasta519]

13 minutes ago, dodsworth said:

"In playoff football, you win up 

front!" - Frank Reich 2019

 

Or you have a QB complete 73% of his passes for 971 yds, 6 TDs and a 115.7 QBR.

 

Like Morgan Freeman says in Shawshank Redemption, "that...and a big ******* poster"

[shasta519]

12 minutes ago, MB-ColtsFan said:

I'm no expert in these things.  Wouldn't you just roll Hooker to the side Hill is on?

 

If I'm not mistaken I thought I saw Leonard lining up against the TE last week a couple of times?

 

Of course...I just don't think Wilson is keeping up with Hill on slants and crossing routes. Hill is very good at beating press coverage with quickness. 

 

 

[Mr.Debonair]

Looks like they are getting Sammy Watkins back 

[masnerj]

2 hours ago, CR91 said:

You can't go deep and throw into the deep zones. I am telling you right now, Mahomes will take a shot and Hooker will pick him off. I promise you that will happen.

 

LOLOLOL, I made this EXACT same prediction like yesterday in one of the other threads! Great minds think alike ;) 

[dodsworth]

16 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Or you have a QB complete 73% of his passes for 971 yds, 6 TDs and a 115.7 QBR.

 

Like Morgan Freeman says in Shawshank Redemption, "that...and a big ******* poster"

Again, winning up front includes QB

pressure...

 

[MB-ColtsFan]

10 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Of course...I just don't think Wilson is keeping up with Hill on slants and crossing routes. Hill is very good at beating press coverage with quickness. 

 

 

I would much rather have Hill beat me inside than on a sideline route.  Yeah, he's dangerous after the catch, but we'll have to live with it.  I think we can smother him after catch.

 

We need containment on Mahomes, though.  Keep him in the pocket with pressure up front and we'll be fine.  We don't necessarily have to sack him, but just speed up his progression/sdelivery.  He's more dangerous out of the pocket than in it.  If we do this then that eliminates the deep threat and our secondary should be able to shine.

[shasta519]

15 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

The idea is to get physical with Hill and bracket cover with the safety over the top.

 

Press coverage on Hill? I think Wilson would be lucky to get his hands on him half of the time...cause Hill is so quick. And if you put Wilson up to the line and bracket over the top...you leave a lot of space to allow Kelce to eat. 

 

If anyone is playing man against Hill...I think it will be Kenny Moore playing off to negate the intermediate and (hopefully) big plays. Moore is faster than any other CB and has the burst to make up the gap if they try to throw short.  

[shasta519]

9 minutes ago, dodsworth said:

Again, winning up front includes QB

pressure...

 

 

That's all it takes really...pressure and (lack of) time.

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

Press coverage on Hill? I think Wilson would be lucky to get his hands on him half of the time...cause Hill is so quick. And if you put Wilson up to the line and bracket over the top...you leave a lot of space to allow Kelce to eat. 

 

If anyone is playing man against Hill...I think it will be Kenny Moore playing off to negate the intermediate and (hopefully) big plays. Moore is faster than any other CB and has the burst to make up the gap if they try to throw short.  

 

Wilson is longer which is the point. Pats did the same thing to Hilton.