My keys to beating the Chiefs

[shasta519]

42 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

If they can run the ball with Williams, bring it. Colts have shut down way better backs and better running teams. Hunt is way more of a threat in the backfield then Williams.

 

I don't think the Colts will have an issue with Williams...but I also don't think anything KC does is average (even without Hunt). It's going to very much be a "pick your poison" type of scenario. And the Colts have had trouble with the short passing game.

 

The only thing I am sure of is that they will do whatever they can to take away the deep pass.

[dodsworth]

5 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

That's all it takes really...pressure and (lack of) time.

^ this has made many top QB's look

pedestrian over the years.

[John Waylon]

54 minutes ago, jameszeigler834 said:

Not every tight end we have played in the last 10 games have killed us sometimes we have got beat for a big gain or two but its not like it has happened every week.

 

We have given up a total of 2,451 yards in the air over the last 10 games and 694 of those yards (over 20%) have been to the TE position. That’s an average of nearly 70 yards a game to the TE position. In 7 of those 10 games we gave up receptions to multiple TEs. Despite those numbers we did only allow 3 TDs to TEs over that stretch. 

 

28

74

73

123

32

19

151

23

121

56

 

Those are the totals we’ve allowed for per game to the TE position in the last 10. When teams have gone to it and stuck with it it has been successful for them. 

 

We do struggle to defend offenses trying to move the ball through the TE position. And the Chiefs offense is one of the best in football when it comes to moving the ball through the TE position. 

 

Edit: I went ahead and did the proper math. That is more than 25% of our yardage given up. It’s 28.3. 

 

We give up a lot of yardage to the TE position. I’d wager that is top 10 in the league. 

[jameszeigler834]

10 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

We have given up a total of 2,451 yards in the air over the last 10 games and 694 of those yards (over 20%) have been to the TE position. That’s an average of nearly 70 yards a game to the TE position. In 7 of those 10 games we gave up receptions to multiple TEs. Despite those numbers we did only allow 3 TDs to TEs over that stretch. 

 

28

74

73

123

32

19

151

23

121

56

 

Those are the totals we’ve allowed for per game to the TE position in the last 10. When teams have gone to it and stuck with it it has been successful for them. 

 

We do struggle to defend offenses trying to move the ball through the TE position. And the Chiefs offense is one of the best in football when it comes to moving the ball through the TE position. 

 

Edit: I went ahead and did the proper math. That is more than 25% of our yardage given up. It’s 28.3. 

 

We give up a lot of yardage to the TE position. I’d wager that is top 10 in the league. 

Well then we better put as much pressure on mahomes and it better get home or we are done then.

[krunk]

It's a bend but don't break defense.  I don't think the Colts get out of whack when they are giving up yards.  The defense is designed to give up some yards while keeping you out of the end zone. As you noted those Tight Ends didn't reach the end zone all that much.    Bottom line is we want to keep these guys out of the end zone as much as possible and keep them kicking field goals.

[King Colt]

The ticker tape at the bottom of the screen on ESPN on 01/08/19 shows KC has a 75% chance of beating the Colts!! How the get that is beyond me. 75%?

[CR91]

18 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

We have given up a total of 2,451 yards in the air over the last 10 games and 694 of those yards (over 20%) have been to the TE position. That’s an average of nearly 70 yards a game to the TE position. In 7 of those 10 games we gave up receptions to multiple TEs. Despite those numbers we did only allow 3 TDs to TEs over that stretch. 

 

28

74

73

123

32

19

151

23

121

56

 

Those are the totals we’ve allowed for per game to the TE position in the last 10. When teams have gone to it and stuck with it it has been successful for them. 

 

We do struggle to defend offenses trying to move the ball through the TE position. And the Chiefs offense is one of the best in football when it comes to moving the ball through the TE position. 

 

Edit: I went ahead and did the proper math. That is more than 25% of our yardage given up. It’s 28.3. 

 

We give up a lot of yardage to the TE position. I’d wager that is top 10 in the league. 

 

The point of the defense is to give up yards, but not the big play. As you mentioned, only 3 tds to TEs

[dodsworth]

1 minute ago, King Colt said:

The ticker tape at the bottom of the screen on ESPN on 01/08/19 shows KC has a 75% chance of beating the Colts!! How the get that is beyond me. 75%?

No respect what so ever. Just wow

[ManningGM]

Just now, CR91 said:

 

The point of the defense is to give up yards, but not the big play. As you mentioned, only 3 tds to TEs

https://www.twitter.com/zkeefer/status/1082715566803161088?s=19

 

Big yikes.....

 

 

[Coffeedrinker]

2 hours ago, CR91 said:

1.Limit their big plays

 

If Im the colts, I am not letting Tyreek Hill beat us. I am putting Desir or Wilson on him everywhere he goes with safety help over the top. Push Tyreek against the sideline and keep him in the zone of the safety. We need to hit Tyreek every time he trys to catch a pass and hit him hard. 

 

2. Mahomes's Inexperience

 

Everyone is talking up Mahomes like hes the next greatest and failing to mention the reality. The guy is basically a rookie playing in his first playoff game. That is a different animal. The pressure and the atmosphere of the moment is real. First time QBs win in the playoffs if they have a top defense to cover their mistakes and that is not the case here. All the pressure is gonna be on him to win this game and we need to take advantage of that.

 

3.Make Mahomes Uncomfortable

 

We all know what Mahomes likes to do and that is take the deep shot and make a big play. That is not gonna work in a tampa 2. You can't go deep and throw into the deep zones. I am telling you right now, Mahomes will take a shot and Hooker will pick him off. I promise you that will happen. Mahomes is not a dink and dunk QB. Hes not patient enough to play that game and eventually he will pull the trigger and it will backfire.

 

4.Control the Clock

 

We need long sustaining drives that last 7-10 mins. Even if it only results in a FG, thats fine. We can not allow this team to have too many possessions. We need to keep this a low scoring game and not play their up tempo game and get into a shoot out. 

 

5.Make Them Play Power Football

 

I think its safe to say that since the Chiefs released Kareem Hunt, their running game has been average at best which is forcing them to rely on Mahomes's arm even more. They want to hit seam busters over the middle to Kelce. They want long bombs to Hill. They want Magic. That is not how you win in January and we are the poster child for that. We need to make them play a power football game which their not comfortable with. We need to set the tone early and hit them in the mouth.

Good write up but it is based on misconceptions.

 

1.  Running game has dropped without Hunt.  The fact is in the 11 games with Hunt the Chiefs averaged 115.8 yards/game rushing.  After they released Hunt the Chiefs are averaging 116.2 yards per game.

 

Mahommes relies on the big play/Mahommes cannot be patient.  That is just not true, the Chiefs are 7th in the league with average number of plays per drive at 6.22.  The Colts are 11th at 6.16.  Also according to his passing charts he primarily lives right in the area where the cover 2 is susceptible.

 

Drives that end in FGs are not going to be enough against the Chiefs.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Why did they release Hunt? Did he get into trouble?

[John Waylon]

1 minute ago, CR91 said:

 

The point of the defense is to give up yards, but not the big play. As you mentioned, only 3 tds to TEs

 

The best TE we played over that stretch was Jared Cook. (Unless you want to take a flier on Evan Engram)

 

There’s plenty of guys who caught passes that I had to look up to make sure they were TEs because I had no idea who they were on that list. 

 

No one on that list was anywhere near as talented as Kelce. Even if Mahomes doesn’t hit Kelce for a TD Saturday it speaks to the bigger problem: they are going to be able to use him to move the ball against us. Even if Mahomes doesn’t hit him for TDs he’s still going to use him to set someone else up. He’s got a buffet of options, and he’s not afraid to make any throw. Even ones he shouldn’t. 

 

There is no simple way to approach Saturday because whatever we take away from them they have a backup plan that WILL keep them in the game. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Mahomes made a lot of careless throws when he got out of the pocket. He is lucky his receivers  caught them. I think if we can force him to do the same we can intercept some balls. Throwing a careless ball into the zone is going to get some balls picked up.

[CR91]

4 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Good write up but it is based on misconceptions.

 

1.  Running game has dropped without Hunt.  The fact is in the 11 games with Hunt the Chiefs averaged 115.8 yards/game rushing.  After they released Hunt the Chiefs are averaging 116.2 yards per game.

 

Mahommes relies on the big play/Mahommes cannot be patient.  That is just not true, the Chiefs are 7th in the league with average number of plays per drive at 6.22.  The Colts are 11th at 6.16.  Also according to his passing charts he primarily lives right in the area where the cover 2 is susceptible.

 

Drives that end in FGs are not going to be enough against the Chiefs.

 

Chiefs are also number 1 in pass per yards at 8.5 which tells me they get a lot of chuck plays. Hes not dinking and dunking the ball down the field is my point

[CR91]

3 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

The best TE we played over that stretch was Jared Cook. (Unless you want to take a flier on Evan Engram)

 

There’s plenty of guys who caught passes that I had to look up to make sure they were TEs because I had no idea who they were on that list. 

 

No one on that list was anywhere near as talented as Kelce. Even if Mahomes doesn’t hit Kelce for a TD Saturday it speaks to the bigger problem: they are going to be able to use him to move the ball against us. Even if Mahomes doesn’t hit him for TDs he’s still going to use him to set someone else up. He’s got a buffet of options, and he’s not afraid to make any throw. Even ones he shouldn’t. 

 

There is no simple way to approach Saturday because whatever we take away from them they have a backup plan that WILL keep them in the game. 

 

I still don't think that matters. Every team struggles with Kelce. Hes gonna get his. The point is to limit their offense in certain parts to their game.

[compuls1v3]

6 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Good write up but it is based on misconceptions.

 

1.  Running game has dropped without Hunt.  The fact is in the 11 games with Hunt the Chiefs averaged 115.8 yards/game rushing.  After they released Hunt the Chiefs are averaging 116.2 yards per game.

 

Mahommes relies on the big play/Mahommes cannot be patient.  That is just not true, the Chiefs are 7th in the league with average number of plays per drive at 6.22.  The Colts are 11th at 6.16.  Also according to his passing charts he primarily lives right in the area where the cover 2 is susceptible.

 

Drives that end in FGs are not going to be enough against the Chiefs.

Thank you!  I said the same thing in another thread.  They ran it against the Seahawks...and that runner looked good.  But....we still got an awesome run defense, keeping Elliot AND Barkley in check and everyone else under 100 yards, is pretty respectable. 

 

I also agree, Mahommes is gonna feast on this cover 2, just like Manning and Brady did.  Hopefully our blitzes get home though, that will cause mistakes.  

 

I agree, completely, that field goals will NOT beat the Chiefs.  They are gonna score.  This is not that Jags we are talking about here...

[CR91]

10 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Good write up but it is based on misconceptions.

 

1.  Running game has dropped without Hunt.  The fact is in the 11 games with Hunt the Chiefs averaged 115.8 yards/game rushing.  After they released Hunt the Chiefs are averaging 116.2 yards per game.

 

Mahommes relies on the big play/Mahommes cannot be patient.  That is just not true, the Chiefs are 7th in the league with average number of plays per drive at 6.22.  The Colts are 11th at 6.16.  Also according to his passing charts he primarily lives right in the area where the cover 2 is susceptible.

 

Drives that end in FGs are not going to be enough against the Chiefs.

 

As for their run game, they only played one good team against the run and that is the ravens. The rest were middle of the pack or bottom half. Williams is not Hunt. 

[Coffeedrinker]

1 minute ago, CR91 said:

 

Chiefs are also number 1 in pass per yards at 8.5 which tells me they get a lot of chuck plays. Hes not dinking and dunking the ball down the field is my point

And that is my point, they throw in that 8-12 yard range a lot and they run a lot of screen passes.  They are #2 in team YAC yards, they throw a lot of short passes and the receivers get a lot of yards after the catch.

 

I'm just saying, I don't think  Mahomes getting impatient is very likely.

[CR91]

10 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Why did they release Hunt? Did he get into trouble?

 

Did you not see the video of him kicking and hitting a girl?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Why does everyone think the colts are going to only score field goals. If it turns out we need to score a ton we will. 

 

Everyone keeps talking about  how Mahomes has 50 TD. Yes that’s impressive but that is less then one TD per game then luck. If we have to we can score fast also.

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

And that is my point, they throw in that 8-12 yard range a lot and they run a lot of screen passes.  They are #2 in team YAC yards, they throw a lot of short passes and the receivers get a lot of yards after the catch.

 

I'm just saying, I don't think  Mahomes getting impatient is very likely.

 

He also has the most 20+ yard completions in the NFL with 75. He will get impatient.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

3 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Did you not see the video of him kicking and hitting a girl?

No. I don’t really pay attention to other teams or much NFL news. That is terrible.

[dodsworth]

Sound tackling is something few people are talking about.

The Colts do a very good job tackling with the first defender 

to the ball.

[Coffeedrinker]

2 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Why does everyone think the colts are going to only score field goals. If it turns out we need to score a ton we will. 

 

Everyone keeps talking about  how Mahomes has 50 TD. Yes that’s impressive but that is less then one TD per game then luck. If we have to we can score fast also.

Who said the Colts are only going to score FGs.

 

I don't know how else to say, Luck's 39 TDs are great, especially coming back from a year off.  50>39.  No reason to try to minimize 50 TDs.

[gspdx]

1 hour ago, masnerj said:

 

LOLOLOL, I made this EXACT same prediction like yesterday in one of the other threads! Great minds think alike ;) 

 

So do you guys!

 

Just kidding.  Couldn't help myself.

[Coffeedrinker]

4 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

He also has the most 20+ yard completions in the NFL with 75. He will get impatient.

Ok.  You are like another poster on this forum who tries to take a positive and turn it into a negative to fit your narrative.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

KELCE might be very good but we have a great tight end also. They will have just as much trouble covering Ebron.

[CR91]

4 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Ok.  You are like another poster on this forum who tries to take a positive and turn it into a negative to fit your narrative.

 

No. I am just trying to proof a point. Your point is valid and I accept it, but you can look at that in two different ways.

[krunk]

7 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Why does everyone think the colts are going to only score field goals. If it turns out we need to score a ton we will. 

 

Everyone keeps talking about  how Mahomes has 50 TD. Yes that’s impressive but that is less then one TD per game then luck. If we have to we can score fast also.

I think Luck would be at 50TD and 5000 yards if we had to play the type of ball Mahomes has to play. And I'm not taking anything away from him because I think he's a great player, but they have to put up big passing numbers to compensate for that defense.  It's been a while since we've had to sit back and just chunk the ball over and over again.  Whenver we've had the situation where Luck had to put up big numbers he did just that..  I think we need to execute well on our drives and get as many stops as we can that end in field goals for them instead of touch downs. We are going to put up our fair share of points.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

10 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Who said the Colts are only going to score FGs.

 

I don't know how else to say, Luck's 39 TDs are great, especially coming back from a year off.  50>39.  No reason to try to minimize 50 TDs.

Because posters are saying we have to score more then just field goals. DUh. We aren’t Baltimore. 

 

I wasn’t trying to minimize  his 50 TD. But in A 16 game schedule that is less then one TD more then Luck.

[KB]

I wonder if we will put Wilson on Kelce like we did earlier in the season. He would be better served against him then Hill. 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

58 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

We have given up a total of 2,451 yards in the air over the last 10 games and 694 of those yards (over 20%) have been to the TE position. That’s an average of nearly 70 yards a game to the TE position. In 7 of those 10 games we gave up receptions to multiple TEs. Despite those numbers we did only allow 3 TDs to TEs over that stretch. 

 

28

74

73

123

32

19

151

23

121

56

 

Those are the totals we’ve allowed for per game to the TE position in the last 10. When teams have gone to it and stuck with it it has been successful for them. 

 

We do struggle to defend offenses trying to move the ball through the TE position. And the Chiefs offense is one of the best in football when it comes to moving the ball through the TE position. 

 

Edit: I went ahead and did the proper math. That is more than 25% of our yardage given up. It’s 28.3. 

 

We give up a lot of yardage to the TE position. I’d wager that is top 10 in the league. 

 

Yeah, that's kind of the idea with this defensive scheme.  Limit the deep passes to WRs and force underneath throws to TEs and RBs.

 

You're cherry picking stats by only giving TE numbers.  How many TDs are we giving up in total?  How much yardage are we giving up to WRs?  How many passes over 20 yards?  Are we also giving up numerous catches to RBs (by design)?

 

Bottom line is that we're a very good scoring defense right now (like #1 in the league over the last two months), and we're on a 10-1 streak because of it.  So yeah, give up catches and yards to TEs and RBs, I don't care as long as we keep them out of the endzone and win the game. 

[Coffeedrinker]

16 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Because posters are saying we have to score more then just field goals. DUh. We aren’t Baltimore. 

 

I wasn’t trying to minimize  his 50 TD. But in A 16 game schedule that is less then one TD more then Luck.

 

 

The only place it was mentioned was in the OPs post, he said long sustained drives, even if they end in FGs are good.  To which I (and I think another poster) stated FG will not be enough.  Meaning that long sustained drives are good but only if they result in TDs, DUh.

[Dingus McGirt]

47 minutes ago, dodsworth said:

No respect what so ever. Just wow

Simple and lazy ... KC is the 1 seed; Colts are the 4th seed in the divisional round.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Malik hooker is in a boot today but says it’s just precautionary.

 

KC is just as afraid of Ebron as we are of KELCE.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Brian Billick had a good point. We really have to be cautious with these wildcard teams. We get excited the wildcard team might be able to compete. But they are the number one seed for a reason. Although winning only two more games. How we start this  game is going to be huge. 

[Superman]

3 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

And that is my point, they throw in that 8-12 yard range a lot and they run a lot of screen passes.  They are #2 in team YAC yards, they throw a lot of short passes and the receivers get a lot of yards after the catch.

 

I'm just saying, I don't think  Mahomes getting impatient is very likely.

 

This is something I've been nervous about today; it will be something different tomorrow.

 

Can we effectively defend their screen game? Andy Reid -- and he's done some dumb stuff in the playoffs, especially regarding game management -- is one of the best offensive gameplanners and play callers of the last decade-plus, and his teams are great at all kind of screens. Their backs, TEs and receivers will catch passes behind the LOS and go for 10+ yards.

 

Defensive discipline and good tackling is always critical, but it will be as critical this week as ever. We have to stay close to make plays, but we also can't get beat over the top by Hill. Gonna be a tough game for the defense, IMO.

[krunk]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001008953/article/eberflus-colts-d-has-hands-full-facing-chiefs-offense

[Surge89]

Darius Leonard needs to play at his usual all pro self for Indy to have a chance.  He cannot play like he did against Houston. 

[Tsarquise]

44 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Brian Billick had a good point. We really have to be cautious with these wildcard teams. We get excited the wildcard team might be able to compete. But they are the number one seed for a reason. Although winning only two more games. How we start this  game is going to be huge. 

Lot of parity in the league this year. The difference between the first a second seed is the difference between a few plays.