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Final Play Call


jvan1973

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1 minute ago, Tsarquise said:

Absolutely; you play to win, not tie. 

Today in this situation?  Yes.  

 

A veteran team vying for a playoff spot?  Every situation is different. 

 

In fact, had this team been 3-0, I would have taken the tie.  

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Just now, jvan1973 said:

Good analogy.   And I agree.   Trust me,   that aggressiveness will pay off at some point

Yep. Honesty, this was HUGE, even in a loss. It shows the players the coaches trust them. Now with the cheat-riots coming up and the bitterness over the McDaniels nonsense, I'm hoping this fires up our coaches, players and even fans, I wanna see our D destroy Brady piece by piece and Luck have another 450 yard day. It could very well happen. 

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Honestly I’m totally indifferent. I get it. A tie and a loss to this team at this point looking ahead are one in the same. A win was really the only true “win” to be had. Keeping the Texans in last in the division and ourselves in 3rd is meaningless. What does 3rd in the division net?

 

Under the circumstances it wasn’t the worst train of thought. If we were 6-4 trying to win the division or earn a Wild Card spot it would be a different story, but that wasn’t the case today. A win was the only thing that would help us. 

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Just now, csmopar said:

Yep. Honesty, this was HUGE, even in a loss. It shows the players the coaches trust them. Now with the cheat-riots coming up and the bitterness over the McDaniels nonsense, I'm hoping this fires up our coaches, players and even fans, I wanna see our D destroy Brady piece by piece and Luck have another 450 yard day. It could very well happen. 

Honestly.   I'm not using wins and losses as a way to grade this team.   You have a new coaching staff.  A new offense, a completely new defensive scheme.   A qb coming back from 2 years of rehab.   I will always hope they win.   What I care mote about is the defense getting it together and the oline not getting luck killed.   I have to believe Ballard is gonna make some big moves in free agency next year.   Tons of money.   You know your qb is healthy (so far).  Next year is the time to make a run

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15 minutes ago, strt182 said:

I would have went for it the first time before the timeout though. I like Rigo but in a situation like that I would have loved to have had Pat on the team.

The punter wasn't the issue.  I love pat too.   But rigo is playing well

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3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Since when did the previous regime establish a reputation for being mediocre?!?   Just more spoiled fan nonsense.  Complete nonsense.  

 

What? Were you asleep for the entire duration of Pagano's coaching tenure?

 

Those teams were mediocre. Bad drafts, poor preparation and terrible coaching. The previous regime is responsible for trading a first for Trent Richardson, the 2013 draft (I'm looking at you Bjorn Werner), trading Jerry Hughes, and running an illegal formation on 4th down. The only reason those teams achieved any success was due to Andrew Luck. 

 

To call that nonsense is to ignore reality, quite frankly.

 

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1 hour ago, dw49 said:

 

The odds of completing a 4 yard pass were "small ? "  Like how small ? Less than 50-50 ?

 

If that's the case , why would the odds of stopping the texans be even "smaller ?"  They had no time outs left and had to gain 10 yards for a shot at a 51 yard FG. With 24 seconds , if we kept them inbounds , they only had 1 play to gain 10 yards. So why is Houston a bigger favorite to gain 10 yards than the colts were to gain 4 yards. 

 

Plus we have the better kicker...

 

I think you win the game more than you lose it by going for the  4 yards . 

 

 

By your logic, no team facing 4th and 4 orcless would ever punt.   But teams punt all the time.   Because the odds are small of getting the first down.  Teams rarely go for a first down on 4th and four.   

 

As for Texas...   once they had the ball...   they had all the momentum and we hadn’t shown signs of stopping the Texans.    Slowing them, yes.   Stopping them, no.   Remember..   they got nearly 500 yards today...   they only needed 20 or so for field goal range.  They got much more than they needed making the winning FG easy.

 

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46 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Absolutely.   Lay it on the line.   See what your players are made of.  It didn't work.   Ok.  Well, now your players know you believe in them with the game on the line.   A punt is a sure tie.   Frank went for the win.   Give me that guy every time

I would go for the win as well. A tie does us no good. I loved the call. We just didn't get it so it will be 2nd guessed. 

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Just now, NewColtsFan said:

 

By your logic, no team facing 4th and 4 orcless would ever punt.   But teams punt all the time.   Because the odds are small of getting the first down.  Teams rarely go for a first down on 4th and four.   

 

As for Texas...   once they had the ball...   they had all the momentum and we hadn’t shown signs of stopping the Texans.    Slowing them, yes.   Stopping them, no.   Remember..   they got nearly 500 yards today...   they only needed 20 or so for field goal range.  They got much more than they needed making the winning FG easy.

 

To be blunt.   Frank had balls.  He went for the win.   It didn't work out.   But in with him.   He will do it again.   And i will be with him again.   Soccer moms play for ties.

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1 hour ago, braveheartcolt said:

Not a good decision in my (limited knowledged) opinion.

 

1. A loss being the same as a tie - stop with the homer chatter. We had a chance to keep a division rival behind us, and we gifted them a win. 

2. Where was the 'brave' call on the previous drive? Reich blew it I'm afraid.

3. Why not go for it on the first snap, when everyone in the world knew we were just trying to draw them offside. Stupid, and burned a TO we may have needed to get the GOAT kicker in range.

4. I absolutely hate the rehtoric on this young team loving the decision. Pulling back a tie with such a tremendous fight back in pretty dire circumstances would have been much much better for this locker room.

5. Oh, and yes, Luck is finished. His arm is shot etc. 

 

All that said, great game to watch.

 

Huh?    Luck’s arm is shot?   To be clear, I’ve never made that argument.  

 

It may not be what it once was,  but he is FAR from finished.   There's also no reason to think that his arm won’t get stronger over the course of this season or improve from this year to next. 

 

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Just now, NewColtsFan said:

 

Huh?    Luck’s arm is shot?   To be clear, I’ve never made that argument.  

 

It may not be what it once was,  but he is FAR from finished.   There's also no reason to think that his arm won’t get stronger over the course of this season or improve from this year to next. 

 

 his arm isn't the issue.   His arm looked fine.  His protection on the other hand looked terrible

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14 minutes ago, colt18 said:

What? Were you asleep for the entire duration of Pagano's coaching tenure?

 

Those teams were mediocre. Bad drafts, poor preparation and terrible coaching. The previous regime is responsible for trading a first for Trent Richardson, the 2013 draft (I'm looking at you Bjorn Werner), trading Jerry Hughes, and running an illegal formation on 4th down. The only reason those teams achieved any success was due to Andrew Luck. 

 

To call that nonsense is to ignore reality, quite frankly.

 

Were you a member of this website in 12 or 13 or 14?    You know, 11-5, 11-5, 11-5 and going further in the playoffs every year?

 

Those are FACTS, not opinions.   8-8 in 15 when Luck missed 9 games?   8-8 in 16 with one of the worst defenses in football?    More facts, not opinions.

 

If that’s “establishing a culture of being mediocre” then you have a funny definition of being mediocre....

 

We had one terrible year in the last six.    One.    And it’s on Grigson. That’s not establishing a culture of mediocrity.

 

We see this very differently.

 

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15 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

To be blunt.   Frank had balls.  He went for the win.   It didn't work out.   But in with him.   He will do it again.   And i will be with him again.   Soccer moms play for ties.

 

And if he keeps coming up short as he did today, it won’t take long for you and others become soccer moms too.

 

Reich’s going to have to win some of these...    losing gets old fast...

 

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46 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

The punter wasn't the issue.  I love pat too.   But rigo is playing well

Rigo is playing good , however if we had Pat and we send him out there on that 4th down they would have had to respect the chance for a fake seeing how Pat was our emergency Qb. 

Although I have not seen Rigo attempt a pass so he could have an arm also. 

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25 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Huh?    Luck’s arm is shot?   To be clear, I’ve never made that argument.  

 

It may not be what it once was,  but he is FAR from finished.   There's also no reason to think that his arm won’t get stronger over the course of this season or improve from this year to next. 

 

You have been one of the most pessimistic posters re Luck recently. And now he's had a very good all round game, you try and conceal your stance behind some phoney archived optimisim. You don't always have to be right. With limited protection and a shady and diminishing supporting cast, Luck was excellent, full stop.

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1 hour ago, jvan1973 said:

Absolutely.   Lay it on the line.   See what your players are made of.  It didn't work.   Ok.  Well, now your players know you believe in them with the game on the line.   A punt is a sure tie.   Frank went for the win.   Give me that guy every time

Screw it. I'm over the loss. I'm glad he went for it. 

 

Still stings but at least I know our head coach is playing to win. Hell, it's how the Eagles won the super bowl. 

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25 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

And if he keeps coming up short as he did today, it won’t take long for you and others become soccer moms too.

 

Reich’s going to have to win some of these...    losing gets old fast...

 

I loved the call to be honest, look like most people did in here by reading their comments. I talked with my dad on the phone about it and he thought we shouldve went for it too. We didn't get it so it's easy to criticize it but and losing stinks but I didn't mind this. If we Punt, it ends up a tie (maybe), Houston still could've won with 1 or 2 big plays if we Punt. In years past we have seen teams march down the field on us in 30 seconds to win like Detroit  couple years ago. We finally have a Coach that has the balls to go for it in a big situation so why be critical of that? Belichick would've went for it IMO there too.

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6 minutes ago, braveheartcolt said:

You have been one of the most pessimistic posters re Luck recently. And now he's had a very good all round game, you try and conceal your stance behind some phoney archived optimisim. You don't always have to be right. With limited protection and a shady and diminishing supporting cast, Luck was excellent, full stop.

 

“Phoney archeived optimism...”

 

I have no idea what that even means so I have no idea how to respond...

 

Yes, I’ve been pessimistic about Luck, but that doesn’t mean I think he’s shot...   I’ve never stated that or predicted that...   and I just wanted to be clear....   that’s all...

 

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52 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

 his arm isn't the issue.   His arm looked fine.  His protection on the other hand looked terrible

His two really deep shots today looked pretty bad.  I am not going to say his arms shot as I think it’s more it’s still coming back but I do see why people were concerned about his really deep shots today.

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Just now, GoColts8818 said:

His two really deep shots today looked pretty bad.  I am not going to say his arms shot as I think it’s more it’s still coming back but I do see why people were concerned about his really deep shots today.

Huh?

 

Luck connected a deep pass to Hilton for 42 yards.    The pass went 50 yards in the air and hit Hokton in stride.

 

What was the problem with that throw?

 

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47 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

And if he keeps coming up short as he did today, it won’t take long for you and others become soccer moms too.

 

Reich’s going to have to win some of these...    losing gets old fast...

 

The key word there is win.  Had the Colts tied them people would have still been upset with the outcome.  No one goes alright we tied them!  Ties get viewed much more like loses than wins.  

 

For years people have been wanting this team to be more aggressive and be more like New England.  Well today they got it.  This is the downside to being aggressive there is a chance you can fail and often if you fail it’s costly.  If it wasn’t everyone would do it.

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Huh?

 

Luck connected a deep pass to Hilton for 42 yards.    The pass went 50 yards in the air and hit Hokton in stride.

 

What was the problem with that throw?

 

The deep pass in OT and the Hail Mary they tried at the end of the game.  Both of those were really ugly.

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7 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

The key word there is win.  Had the Colts tied them people would have still been upset with the outcome.  No one goes alright we tied them!  Ties get viewed much more like loses than wins.  

 

For years people have been wanting this team to be more aggressive and be more like New England.  Well today they got it.  This is the downside to being aggressive there is a chance you can fail and often if you fail it’s costly.  If it wasn’t everyone would do it.

The deep pass in OT and the Hail Mary they tried at the end of the game.  Both of those were really ugly.

 

Yup...   those two were not good.   Fair point.   

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56 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Were you a member of this website in 12 or 13 or 14?    You know, 11-5, 11-5, 11-5 and going further in the playoffs every year?

 

Those are FACTS, not opinions.   8-8 in 15 when Luck missed 9 games?   8-8 in 16 with one of the worst defenses in football?    More facts, not opinions.

 

If that’s “establishing a culture of being mediocre” then you have a funny definition of being mediocre....

 

We had one terrible year in the last six.    One.    And it’s on Grigson. That’s not establishing a culture of mediocrity.

 

We see this very differently.

 

 

Luck was the biggest reason for all of that success.

 

Not a front office that traded a first for Trent Richardson (FACT)

 

Not a GM that traded so poorly there's no one left from his draft (FACT)

 

Not a coach that called an illegal formation on 4th down against the Pats on national TV (FACT)

 

Not a coaching regime that beat bad teams behind Luck's arm and then got demolished by good teams every year (FACT)

 

We can do this all day...the only reason this team wasn't a complete dumpster fire during the last few years was because of Luck. 

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7 minutes ago, colt18 said:

 

Luck was the biggest reason for all of that success.

 

Not a front office that traded a first for Trent Richardson (FACT)

 

Not a GM that traded so poorly there's no one left from his draft (FACT)

 

Not a coach that called an illegal formation on 4th down against the Pats on national TV (FACT)

 

Not a coaching regime that beat bad teams behind Luck's arm and then got demolished by good teams every year (FACT)

 

We can do this all day...the only reason this team wasn't a complete dumpster fire during the last few years was because of Luck. 

Umm Luck and TY were two of his picks.  As were Geathers, Haeg, Clark, and Kelly.   So there are still guys here Grigson drafted.  Yet I get the overall point you are trying to make and I agree with it.  I don’t think anyone is going tell you Luck was holding back Grigson and Pagano.  It doesn’t mean Luck is above criticism when he deserves it though (today is not one of those days).  I think the only point the poster was trying to make was Grigson and Pagano did have some success here even if it wasn’t as sustaining as we would have all liked.

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41 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

“Phoney archeived optimism...”

 

I have no idea what that even means so I have no idea how to respond...

 

Yes, I’ve been pessimistic about Luck, but that doesn’t mean I think he’s shot...   I’ve never stated that or predicted that...   and I just wanted to be clear....   that’s all...

 

"His arm is dramatically and clearly weaker. Something is not right with Andrew. Anyone denying this is sailing up river denial."

 

That was you last week. And there was more of the same, but I'm not going to drag it out. You are correct, you ever said he was 'shot', but the above quote was pretty close to it. And maybe yesterday was a fluke, but I doubt it. Thing is, if you are going to come out with such dramatic and wild sensationalisms, you will leave yourself wide open to some (friendly) barbs.....

 

 

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6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I prefer not losing.   When New England beats us Thursday,  we will be 1-4.    I would have liked to avoid that.

 

The odds of converting a first down on 4th and 4 were low.   And then the Texans had a short field with plenty of time.

 

There’s a time for aggressiveness.   This wasn’t one of them.

They are not super low. IMO they are about 50%(edit: according to this it's 46%) and for Luck who is exceptional situational QB IMO that might be even higher but lets say it's that much.

 

If you convert this, you are not losing the game, simply because we get 3(4?) more downs and 24 seconds on the clock with the Texans not having any timeouts. So in essence we had 46% to convert and 54% that we don't. 

 

It's probably still not positive expected value but IMO it's not as bad as you are making it out to be. In 46% of the cases you get win or a draw, in 54% of the cases you get loss or a draw. The field position is slightly in Texans' favor but they don't have a time out, while the Colts had 2. So IMO it's close. MUCH closer than most(at least according to my twitter feed) might think.

 

So you have about 15 more yards to go(for Vinny winning FG), 46%, 2 timeouts, Luck and Vinny or 54%, Watson and Fairbairn with no time outs to move the ball 10 yards for Fairbairn FG

 

I would like to see better and more official math on this(and we will probably get it in the following days), but by my very crude calculations the decision is very close to being OK or slightly negative and nowhere near the disaster it's made out to be. 

 

 

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Anyone have a closeup/ slow mo of the throw on that last play? It looked like Luck gave his wr no shot at catching it. Why wouldn't he scramble. Just hated to see the game basically decided on that throw and route. Still loved the call to go for it. 

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1 hour ago, braveheartcolt said:

"His arm is dramatically and clearly weaker. Something is not right with Andrew. Anyone denying this is sailing up river denial."

 

That was you last week. And there was more of the same, but I'm not going to drag it out. You are correct, you ever said he was 'shot', but the above quote was pretty close to it. And maybe yesterday was a fluke, but I doubt it. Thing is, if you are going to come out with such dramatic and wild sensationalisms, you will leave yourself wide open to some (friendly) barbs.....

 

 

 

First off....   let's not kid....   barbs coming frm you,  are NEVER friendly.     You'd rather rinse your mouth with battery acid than be friends.

 

Second off...    I know English is supposed to be your primary language,  but there are some words that we use differently.   So, maybe reading comprehension is different across the pond?

 

The reason I never said Luck's arm is shot,  is because I don't think it.    So I never said it.    You know I'm not exactly shy.     Don't you think if I thought it,  I'd say it?

 

All I said is that Luck's arm was noticably weaker.   It wasn't hard to see.     You saw enough to proclaim it was shot.    Period.    

 

Just because you took my words and gave them a whole new meaning,  doesn't mean that was my meaning.    That was your interpretation.    I've been saying for much of the calendar year that Luck's arm likely wasn't going to be where he'd like it to be.    But that it might get better during the season.    And, if he can avoid getting hurt this year (not just his arm, but any part)  then his arm might just be much improved next year.    This is not the first time I've said that.

 

I'm sorry you managed to miss all those other times. 

 

Look,  mine isn't the definitive opinion on Andrew Luck.    You're entitled to think anything you want.    I just wanted to make sure your comment wasn't based on anything I said.    And since I haven't seen that type of comment from a knowledgable poster (and I think you're a good poster despite our differences)   so I wondered how you came to that conclusion....   espeically after Luck had -- on balance -- a good day.

 

Hope this clarifies my views on Andrew....

 

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At the time I really didn't like the call. OK to being aggressive but a tie against a division opponent is a better result than losing ground on them.  I am coming around a little bit to the long term benefits of coaches showing trust, but it still was a poor way to lose the game.

 

One thing I did consider.  Wouldn't it be the perfect time to run a trick play?  

 

We come out and try and get the hard count to get them offside, doesn't work, call time out, bring out the punt team and no one in the world would expect us to go for a trick play. 

 

I am sure Reich's analytics guy would say the quick throw was the best option, but this would surely be the best way to try and catch them off guard.

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10 hours ago, Tsarquise said:

Then it makes the call even better, because if you punt, they'll march down the field in that scenario, too. 

not enough to get into field goal range though.

PS I was not against the call, more an observation that Houston would find a way to chalk up 20 or however many yards on the next play.  That for me is more frustrating

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3 hours ago, colt18 said:

 

Luck was the biggest reason for all of that success.

 

Not a front office that traded a first for Trent Richardson (FACT)

 

Not a GM that traded so poorly there's no one left from his draft (FACT)

 

Not a coach that called an illegal formation on 4th down against the Pats on national TV (FACT)

 

Not a coaching regime that beat bad teams behind Luck's arm and then got demolished by good teams every year (FACT)

 

We can do this all day...the only reason this team wasn't a complete dumpster fire during the last few years was because of Luck. 

 

3 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

Umm Luck and TY were two of his picks.  As were Geathers, Haeg, Clark, and Kelly.   So there are still guys here Grigson drafted.  Yet I get the overall point you are trying to make and I agree with it.  I don’t think anyone is going tell you Luck was holding back Grigson and Pagano.  It doesn’t mean Luck is above criticism when he deserves it though (today is not one of those days).  I think the only point the poster was trying to make was Grigson and Pagano did have some success here even if it wasn’t as sustaining as we would have all liked.

 While you two are bickering over the past, you're both missing the fact that Luck had a reliable target, Reggie Wayne, for those first 3 years as well. Wayne commanded coverage and allowed TY to do his thing. Hopefully Pascal can continue what he had going to day.

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Like I said a million times to those who actually believe Chris Ballard would give up draft picks for a guy and then reward him with a huge contract or let him walk after playing half a season here is ridiculous. If Chris Ballard ended up giving up draft picks for Bell I will move to New England and become a Patriots fan.

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Most of the math/analytics guys seem to like or at the very least not mind what Reich did:

 

 

 

 

 

It seems like even if it's slightly negative EV purely win/loss-wise, it's so minor that taking into consideration other factors(young team, showing trust in your team, team buying in, etc.) might skew the decision into a positive, even if it did result in us losing the game. 

 

Here's one more calculation on the negative side:

 

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-41035755-4

 

Quote

The Colts' 4th down attempt was not analytically sound. It was a net -5.1% Win Probability decision (counting a tie as half a win). They needed a 58% chance of conversion for it to be worth the risk, and league average conversion rate in that region of the field is 46%.

 

Again - as expected it shows a slight negative EV of -5.1% win probability, but the decision is VERY VERY far from being as horrendous as most people disappointed by the call are describing it as. It also doesn't take into account that Luck is probably much better in situational football than the average QB who has 46% success in such situations. 

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2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

First off....   let's not kid....   barbs coming frm you,  are NEVER friendly.     You'd rather rinse your mouth with battery acid than be friends.

 

Second off...    I know English is supposed to be your primary language,  but there are some words that we use differently.   So, maybe reading comprehension is different across the pond?

 

The reason I never said Luck's arm is shot,  is because I don't think it.    So I never said it.    You know I'm not exactly shy.     Don't you think if I thought it,  I'd say it?

 

All I said is that Luck's arm was noticably weaker.   It wasn't hard to see.     You saw enough to proclaim it was shot.    Period.    

 

Just because you took my words and gave them a whole new meaning,  doesn't mean that was my meaning.    That was your interpretation.    I've been saying for much of the calendar year that Luck's arm likely wasn't going to be where he'd like it to be.    But that it might get better during the season.    And, if he can avoid getting hurt this year (not just his arm, but any part)  then his arm might just be much improved next year.    This is not the first time I've said that.

 

I'm sorry you managed to miss all those other times. 

 

Look,  mine isn't the definitive opinion on Andrew Luck.    You're entitled to think anything you want.    I just wanted to make sure your comment wasn't based on anything I said.    And since I haven't seen that type of comment from a knowledgable poster (and I think you're a good poster despite our differences)   so I wondered how you came to that conclusion....   espeically after Luck had -- on balance -- a good day.

 

Hope this clarifies my views on Andrew....

 

First off, no need to be rude. Personal attacks are not necessary. Rip my opinions to shreads by all means. You obviously missed my sarcasm re Andrew being 'done'. Shame, as it may have removed the need for the petty insults.

 

Just to clarify the origins of my initial post, you said last week after a poor game by Andrew (in a hostile and wet environment), that his arm 'is dramtically and clearly weaker'. Therefore my comment re Andrew being 'done' was a tongue in cheek barb at your dramatic observation, which I found at the time to be a tad over the top.

 

I think the 'RIVER DENIAL' follow-up to the above observation was rather  amusing and did come across as ridiculously arrogant. 

 

No harm done though, and at least you stick to your guns. 

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11 hours ago, richard pallo said:

You play to make the playoffs.   A loss certainly doesn't help us get there but a tie might.  Pretty simple math really.  A tie is the next best thing to a victory. 

That is true.   This team needs wins to make the playoffs.   1-2-1 with New England on Thursday is not a likely playoff start.  They needed a win.

 

I was disappointed when this happened.   Since then, I've come around to accept that it really wasn't a bad call.  

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