Early Tidbits Concerning Colts Picking 2nd or 3rd

[Smonroe]

7 hours ago, dw49 said:

 

 

Not really clear on Bortles and the 5th year option . One article says they opted to say yes and then there are "rumors " they will decline it. All they really have to do is cut him before the season starts and it's void. As I understand it ,if he gets injured they would be screwed. 

 

I think the Jags have until March to make a decision on Bortles.  It will probably depend on how he does in the playoffs.  He was hot until Sunday, when he reverted back to his normal inconsistent self.

 

Personally, I hope he does well enough that they have to keep him.  He's never going to be elite, IMHO. 

[chad72]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I haven't seen enough of him yet. It's great if he is as good and as sought after as some think he will be. I'm just saying that I've heard he's more liked by media guys than pro personnel guys. But it only takes one, so...

 

Oh, MileHighReport had an elaborate article why the odds of a guy like Josh Allen succeeding in the NFL is so slim, purely based on numbers  - here it is:

 

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/12/23/16814196/the-denver-broncos-should-stay-away-from-josh-allen

 

 

[Valpo2004]

15 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

I am all for trading back IF the Colts can still get the guy they want.  With that said there is a handful of guys if the Colts drafted them high I think Colts fans would feel real good about.  

 

Well to me, we shouldn't get too attached to one specific guy, especially a guy at the top of the draft.  

 

Is Chubb or Barkely going to be worth losing out on possibly a couple extra 2nd rounders at minimum?

 

If there is a QB there that someone wants then you are looking at possibly an extra first next year and an extra 2nd.  

 

There are a lot of guys in the draft that could help this team.  

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

10 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I haven't seen enough of him yet. It's great if he is as good and as sought after as some think he will be. I'm just saying that I've heard he's more liked by media guys than pro personnel guys. But it only takes one, so...

It does only take one but he's only a media guy haven't heard that one!

[coltsfeva]

16 hours ago, Horse Shoe Heaven said:

Agree if we can't get Chubb I don't want to move back. He is a freak of nature skill set wise for that size and a high motor to! He IMO is exactly what the Colts lack and need!

   I know highlights can be hyperbole but here’s a link for Chubbs. Looks like he has a motor, reminiscent of Freeney/ Mathis. 

 

     Pass rush is the primary need for the Colts. I know some will say Oline and they definitely need to find a player or two there but, I would not be disappointed taking Chubb at # 2 or # 3 and not worrying about the “what if’s “. Some of the failure of the Oline to protect has to be laid at the feet of Brissett. 

   Now, if they can move down and still get Chubb, that would be sweet.

[Defjamz26]

53 minutes ago, coltsfeva said:

   I know highlights can be hyperbole but here’s a link for Chubbs. Looks like he has a motor, reminiscent of Freeney/ Mathis. 

 

     Pass rush is the primary need for the Colts. I know some will say Oline and they definitely need to find a player or two there but, I would not be disappointed taking Chubb at # 2 or # 3 and not worrying about the “what if’s “. Some of the failure of the Oline to protect has to be laid at the feet of Brissett. 

   Now, if they can move down and still get Chubb, that would be sweet.

Problem with that video it doesn’t show how McGlinchey held him in check this year when they played. If McGlinchey is getting drafted in the 15-25 range, I’m not taking a guy he held in check in the top 5. Plus Chubb isn’t as special as Garrett, Bosa, etc...

[GoColts8818]

1 hour ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

Well to me, we shouldn't get too attached to one specific guy, especially a guy at the top of the draft.  

 

Is Chubb or Barkely going to be worth losing out on possibly a couple extra 2nd rounders at minimum?

 

If there is a QB there that someone wants then you are looking at possibly an extra first next year and an extra 2nd.  

 

There are a lot of guys in the draft that could help this team.  

They could very well be.  This is were you get game changers like Andrew Luck,  More picks doesn’t always equal better players.  This is why the evaluation period is so important.  In a perfect world the Colts could trade back a couple of spots and still get one of the guys they really like but to me if the choice is take a guy they feel could be a game changer or miss out on him to get more picks I’d rather they take the guy they feel is a game changer.

[Myles]

Ideally, I'd like to see the Colts trade back a couple positions and take Nelson.  

[Superman]

3 hours ago, Horse Shoe Heaven said:

It does only take one but he's only a media guy haven't heard that one!

 

Not that he's only a media guy, but that the media is higher on him than pro teams. I just searched for a link, but can't find any. I'm pretty sure I read it, though, so I'll keep my eye open and post it here if I come across it again. 

[Superman]

2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Problem with that video it doesn’t show how McGlinchey held him in check this year when they played. If McGlinchey is getting drafted in the 15-25 range, I’m not taking a guy he held in check in the top 5. Plus Chubb isn’t as special as Garrett, Bosa, etc...

 

Been watching Chubb the last couple of days. He's not Von Miller / Khalil Mack, that's obvious. Not nearly as explosive as Garrett, either. At first I was thinking he reminded me of Chandler Jones, but he's bigger and a little bit more explosive, IMO. His tape actually reminds me of Joey Bosa.

 

You might remember, I wasn't that impressed with Bosa's tape. I didn't see great explosiveness or bend, nor did I see good pass rush moves. He was technically sound, played with power, balance, leverage, and had some tenacity, but he didn't strike me as an excellent pass rush prospect. Some of his workout numbers were incredible, others were so-so. I just wasn't wowed by his tape and didn't think he was a top 10 player. 

 

Bosa has obviously been a better pass rusher than I expected 11 sacks in a shortened season last year, 11 sacks so far this year. Good for him and the Chargers.

 

In Chubb's case, his tape looks like Bosa's, to me. He's disruptive, tenacious, has motor, plays with strength and leverage, has active and violent hands, stays in the backfield, chases down ball carriers, has solid closing ability, and has enough range to drop into coverage on occasion. He also has a couple of effective pass rush moves -- a rip/dip, and a counter. But he doesn't look like a dynamic guy who will give OTs fits every single down. He doesn't have the bend around the corner, doesn't have an explosive first step, and doesn't have that one outstanding move that will defeat blockers. 

 

I'm not arguing that Chubb will do what Bosa has done. I do think he'll be good, more of a Chandler Jones kind of guy with the potential for 10-12 sacks every year. If he has a good three cone and a good combination of broad jump, vertical jump and short shuttle, I'll give him a thumbs up as an edge rush prospect. But he's probably not the elite pass rush prospect that he's being propped up to be so far. Still should be a good player, though.

[Superman]

4 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Oh, MileHighReport had an elaborate article why the odds of a guy like Josh Allen succeeding in the NFL is so slim, purely based on numbers  - here it is:

 

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/12/23/16814196/the-denver-broncos-should-stay-away-from-josh-allen

 

Very good input on why teams might be wary of Josh Allen. 

[stitches]

14 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Just starting to watch now. Haven't been blown away by anyone yet. 

Who have you seen from the top prospects? 

[Superman]

11 minutes ago, stitches said:

Who have you seen from the top prospects? 

 

Spent some time watching Barkley, Chubb and Nelson recently, mostly because of the conversations in this thread. They're all good, but I'm not ready to pound the table for any of them.

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Spent some time watching Barkley, Chubb and Nelson recently, mostly because of the conversations in this thread. They're all good, but I'm not ready to pound the table for any of them.

Damn, you are a tough judge to impress.  

 

[Fisticuffs111]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Spent some time watching Barkley, Chubb and Nelson recently, mostly because of the conversations in this thread. They're all good, but I'm not ready to pound the table for any of them.

I'd be interested to see your thoughts on Fitzpatrick if you end up watching. I like Chubb but recognize his apparenty ceiling, starting to think Fitz could be a possible pick unless we trade down.

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

Damn, you are a tough judge to impress.  

 

I'm thinking in terms of who is worthy of the #3 pick. 

[Superman]

1 minute ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

I'll be interested to see if you watch some of Fitzpatrick. I like Chubb but recognize his apparenty ceiling, starting to think Fitz could be a good pick unless we trade down.

 

I'm already impressed with Fitzpatrick, but I will be watching him more closely soon.

[stitches]

Just now, Superman said:

 

I'm thinking in terms of who is worthy of the #3 pick. 

Are you taking suggestions? I'd like to hear your opinion on:

-Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

-Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S, Alabama

-Hercules Mata'afa, EDGE/DT?, Washington state

-Taven Bryan, DT, Florida. 

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

Are you taking suggestions? I'd like to hear your opinion on:

-Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

-Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S, Alabama

-Hercules Mata'afa, EDGE/DT?, Washington state

-Taven Bryan, DT, Florida. 

 

Adding to my list. 

[stitches]

11 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm already impressed with Fitzpatrick, but I will be watching him more closely soon.

Fitzpatrick might be the best defensive player in the draft, IMO. I don't know how teams will feel about his position in the league, but I would give him the chance to fail at corner before I put him at safety. 

[Valpo2004]

3 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

They could very well be.  This is were you get game changers like Andrew Luck,  More picks doesn’t always equal better players.  This is why the evaluation period is so important.  In a perfect world the Colts could trade back a couple of spots and still get one of the guys they really like but to me if the choice is take a guy they feel could be a game changer or miss out on him to get more picks I’d rather they take the guy they feel is a game changer.

 

I don't think any of the non quarterbacks in this draft would qualify as "game changers".  

[The Fish]

17 minutes ago, stitches said:

Are you taking suggestions? I'd like to hear your opinion on:

-Roquan Smith, ILB, Georgia

-Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB/S, Alabama

-Hercules Mata'afa, EDGE/DT?, Washington state

-Taven Bryan, DT, Florida. 

This guy's gotta name that's going to be hard to live up to

[Valpo2004]

5 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

Oh, MileHighReport had an elaborate article why the odds of a guy like Josh Allen succeeding in the NFL is so slim, purely based on numbers  - here it is:

 

https://www.milehighreport.com/2017/12/23/16814196/the-denver-broncos-should-stay-away-from-josh-allen

 

 

 

They talk a lot about completion percentage.  To be that's an overrated statistic.  I would prefer yards per attempt to completion percentage.  I have no idea what Josh Allen's YPA is.

 

What would concern me however is bad tape against FBS teams.  

 

I am an Iowa fan and I saw the Hawkeyes taking on Wyoming.  I had no idea that their QB was considered first round draft material.  If someone would have told me that I would have laughed my rear off after seeing that game.  

 

Then you bring up the fact that it basically sounds like he looks like trash any time he takes on any FBS team.  

[stitches]

5 minutes ago, The Fish said:

This guy's gotta name that's going to be hard to live up to

21.5 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles in 12 games this season as an interior defensive lineman at 250lbs. (he will probably have to transition into EDGE position in the pros)

 

As hard as it is... he kind of lived up to his name, at least on college level. 

[GoColts8818]

20 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

I don't think any of the non quarterbacks in this draft would qualify as "game changers".  

http://www.ajc.com/sports/football/hillgrove-grad-bradley-chubb-might-prize-nfl-draft/sff7VPlLMREOZUE3vQ0pwM/

 

not the first to talk about Chubb like this.  McShay said he could very well be the Andrew Luck of defense in the draft in that he’s a sure bet and said he’s the best overall player in this draft on ESPN radio.  

 

If you dont like him that’s fine but he’s the best passer in this draft right now and the Colts need a pass rusher bad. If the Colts take him at number three I am not going to complain.  

 

Also if no one else is a game changer in this draft no one might want to move up to number three leaving the Colts stuck there.

[Superman]

16 minutes ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

They talk a lot about completion percentage.  To be that's an overrated statistic.  I would prefer yards per attempt to completion percentage.  I have no idea what Josh Allen's YPA is.

 

What would concern me however is bad tape against FBS teams.  

 

I am an Iowa fan and I saw the Hawkeyes taking on Wyoming.  I had no idea that their QB was considered first round draft material.  If someone would have told me that I would have laughed my rear off after seeing that game.  

 

Then you bring up the fact that it basically sounds like he looks like trash any time he takes on any FBS team.  

 

They talk about completion percentage because there's a correlation for prospects who have underwhelming completion percentage in college and go on to play poorly in the NFL. 

 

Other numbers place Allen in the company of Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder. Those includes yards/attempt and adjusted yards/attempt, where he's well behind the other top prospects for 2018.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/12/22/16776200/josh-allen-2018-nfl-draft-wyoming-quarterback

 

I haven't made up my mind on him yet, but there are some definite red flags. 

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Also if no one else is a game changer in this draft no one might want to move up to number three leaving the Colts stuck there.

 

That's the thing, there are four QBs getting first round buzz, assuming Rosen and Darnold both declare.

[GoColts8818]

Just now, Superman said:

 

That's the thing, there are four QBs getting first round buzz, assuming Rosen and Darnold both declare.

Agreed but it’s very possiable Rosen goes back to school.  I think Darnold is more than likely to come out.  As for the other two I could see the Wyomnging Kid going high but I could also see Jackson sliding a little bit.  However this is all without workouts and then combine.  Again like I said before if the Colts can trade back and still get who they want I am all for it.  That doesn’t mean it has to be Chubb either.  If they can trade back and get Chubb, Barkley, Nelson, or Key Colts fans should be happy.  The other top guys, like Fitzpatrick or James don’t interest me personally but I couldn’t completely rule out Fitzpatrick if he can play corner.  

[Superman]

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

Agreed but it’s very possiable Rosen goes back to school.  I think Darnold is more than likely to come out.  As for the other two I could see the Wyomnging Kid going high but I could also see Jackson sliding a little bit.  However this is all without workouts and then combine.  Again like I said before if the Colts can trade back and still get who they want I am all for it.  That doesn’t mean it has to be Chubb either.  If they can trade back and get Chubb, Barkley, Nelson, or Key Colts fans should be happy.  The other top guys, like Fitzpatrick or James don’t interest me personally but I couldn’t completely rule out Fitzpatrick if he can play corner.  

 

Agreed. Just setting aside specific players, and recognizing that four QBs won't go in the top five, there's a chance that #3 isn't as valuable as we hope. 

 

My scenario is that the Browns take Barkley at #1, knowing they can still get their QB at #5. If Rosen and Darnold both come out (and Rosen is doing a lot of talking about the draft for someone who doesn't intend to come out; I think chances are greater than Darnold stays, but that's just me) and are the consensus 1-2 QBs, then #3 basically becomes #2. The Browns could move up from #5 to #3, or someone else could move up to #3 for one of them while the Browns play around with their #5 pick because they actually want Josh Allen.

 

Wild scenario, I know, but there's a chance #3 still attracts a big offer and we wind up with a top 8 pick and a couple extra good picks in this year's draft. There's also still a slight chance that we wind up picking #2, in which case the scenario doesn't have to be quite as wild.

[GoColts8818]

1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

Agreed. Just setting aside specific players, and recognizing that four QBs won't go in the top five, there's a chance that #3 isn't as valuable as we hope. 

 

My scenario is that the Browns take Barkley at #1, knowing they can still get their QB at #5. If Rosen and Darnold both come out (and Rosen is doing a lot of talking about the draft for someone who doesn't intend to come out; I think chances are greater than Darnold stays, but that's just me) and are the consensus 1-2 QBs, then #3 basically becomes #2. The Browns could move up from #5 to #3, or someone else could move up to #3 for one of them while the Browns play around with their #5 pick because they actually want Josh Allen.

 

Wild scenario, I know, but there's a chance #3 still attracts a big offer and we wind up with a top 8 pick and a couple extra good picks in this year's draft. There's also still a slight chance that we wind up picking #2, in which case the scenario doesn't have to be quite as wild.

Yeah, and I am not anti trade if this falls this way.  I just don’t want to move back to like 15 and 25 and go but we got two first rounders!  I’d rather have one of the guys I listed before.  If they moved back to say number 8 and got one of those guys and got other picks or assists that’s great.

[Superman]

1 minute ago, GoColts8818 said:

Yeah, and I am not anti trade if this falls this way.  I just don’t want to move back to like 15 and 25 and go but we got two first rounders!  I’d rather have one of the guys I listed before.  If they moved back to say number 8 and got one of those guys and got other picks or assists that’s great.

 

Yeah absolutely, still need to be in the top 8-10 range, IMO. 

 

Taking a longer view, if the staff is lukewarm on this year's top 15-ish prospects but really excited about 2019's draft, it might be defensible for them to move down and collect an extra first in 2019, being armed to move up to the top 10 next year. That's not an easy sell for a thirsty fan base, but it's something to consider.

[dgambill]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Agreed. Just setting aside specific players, and recognizing that four QBs won't go in the top five, there's a chance that #3 isn't as valuable as we hope. 

 

My scenario is that the Browns take Barkley at #1, knowing they can still get their QB at #5. If Rosen and Darnold both come out (and Rosen is doing a lot of talking about the draft for someone who doesn't intend to come out; I think chances are greater than Darnold stays, but that's just me) and are the consensus 1-2 QBs, then #3 basically becomes #2. The Browns could move up from #5 to #3, or someone else could move up to #3 for one of them while the Browns play around with their #5 pick because they actually want Josh Allen.

 

Wild scenario, I know, but there's a chance #3 still attracts a big offer and we wind up with a top 8 pick and a couple extra good picks in this year's draft. There's also still a slight chance that we wind up picking #2, in which case the scenario doesn't have to be quite as wild.

I can’t imagine the Browns taking Barkley #1 overall. First off I think they can’t risk trying to move back up to get their guy because the Giants might take him or someone else might outbid them. They have too many needs to throw away more picks. In fact I think it’s more likely they trade #5 and go back then trade up. Besides Barkley is a real chance to be there at #5 or at very worse they may end up with Kirkpatrick when they have huge need in secondary. 

I know everyone is talking about Allen but I think Mayfield might have some real admirers before the playoffs are all said and done. Could this be the year qb goes 1-2-3....maybe....a lot of desperate teams right now.

[dgambill]

Question....do people want a second plus other picks this year for moving back within the top 10 or would you rather have a future first next year. Personally I’d rather have a future first...it’s like sitting on a winning lottery ticket and you never know how it will pay off.....I just think of the Houston pick and how Cleveland just made out like bandits. I’d say the Jets come calling I want a future 1st and say a third this year. If they want that qb they are going to have to pay out their nose.

[Superman]

6 minutes ago, dgambill said:

I can’t imagine the Browns taking Barkley #1 overall. First off I think they can’t risk trying to move back up to get their guy because the Giants might take him or someone else might outbid them. They have too many needs to throw away more picks. In fact I think it’s more likely they trade #5 and go back then trade up. Besides Barkley is a real chance to be there at #5 or at very worse they may end up with Kirkpatrick when they have huge need in secondary. 

I know everyone is talking about Allen but I think Mayfield might have some real admirers before the playoffs are all said and done. Could this be the year qb goes 1-2-3....maybe....a lot of desperate teams right now.

 

I'm just spitballing. But if the Browns prefer Allen and don't want to play Rosen's game, I could see them waiting until #5 to pull the trigger.

 

I don't think Baker Mayfield is a John Dorsey kind of guy, though.

[dgambill]

15 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm just spitballing. But if the Browns prefer Allen and don't want to play Rosen's game, I could see them waiting until #5 to pull the trigger.

 

I don't think Baker Mayfield is a John Dorsey kind of guy, though.

I just can’t see Cleveland passing on qb at #1. If they value him high enough to take top 5 you have to eliminate the risk of missing him and take him #1. What would happen is any team valuing a qb will see them at 5 and move to jump ahead....they don’t want to get in a bidding war for their franchise qb...imagine if they missed out....the fan base would lose its mind....well except that one guy on this forum that insists Kizer is the real deal despite watching him fall apart at Notre Dame and look mostly awful all year in Cleveland.

I don’t think Mayfield is that guy...but some reason I can see a team falling in love itch his attitude and winning spirit.

[Superman]

26 minutes ago, dgambill said:

Question....do people want a second plus other picks this year for moving back within the top 10 or would you rather have a future first next year. Personally I’d rather have a future first...it’s like sitting on a winning lottery ticket and you never know how it will pay off.....I just think of the Houston pick and how Cleveland just made out like bandits. I’d say the Jets come calling I want a future 1st and say a third this year. If they want that qb they are going to have to pay out their nose.

 

Cleveland made out well in terms of draft standing, but they also passed on a legit QB prospect. In our situation, I'm not opposed to moving back for a future first.

[Buddy Lee]

On 12/24/2017 at 8:53 PM, dw49 said:

Early betting lines on the 2 games that matter are out.

 

Colts are even. I would expect us to be around minus 2 as we get closer to next Sunday.

 

Washington is 3 to 3.5 right now. I'm thinking that ones goes to 4.5. They are just better than NY and is home field really a significant edge in that game ? I doubt it.

 

Here's another interesting item that certainly effects the top of round one.

 

Neither Rosen or Darnold are locks to come out . Darold is only 20 years old and the word so far is that he could indeed go back to SC for another year. We did see similar with both our guys... Manning and Luck. As to Rosen , here something I just saw in Roto World.

 

 

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, UCLA QB Josh Rosen prefers to play for the Giants and would be "hesitant to come out in next year's draft" if the Browns pursue him with the first overall pick.

Rosen is still deciding whether to enter the upcoming draft, where he would likely be a first-round selection. Per Schefter, he wants no part of the Browns, however, and may be tempted to return to UCLA for his senior year if it meant avoiding Cleveland. ESPN's Todd McShay projects Rosen as the No. 1 pick while Mel Kiper has him at No. 4. The winless Browns are a lock to draft a quarterback after missing on Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson the past two years.

Source: ESPN.com 

Dec 24 - 9:42 AM

 

 

 

Sounds like Elway and the Colts in 83.

[Smonroe]

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm just spitballing. But if the Browns prefer Allen and don't want to play Rosen's game, I could see them waiting until #5 to pull the trigger.

 

I don't think Baker Mayfield is a John Dorsey kind of guy, though.

 

If we beat Houston, I think the Browns get the 4th pick.  A ton of evaluation left to go.  Jackson, Rosen, Darnold, Mayfield, Allen - the order will probably be fluid until the combine is done. 

 

Bottom line, they have to take the best one of the group.  But if they're that close, one will be available at 4.

[BOTT]

5 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Problem with that video it doesn’t show how McGlinchey held him in check this year when they played. If McGlinchey is getting drafted in the 15-25 range, I’m not taking a guy he held in check in the top 5. Plus Chubb isn’t as special as Garrett, Bosa, etc...

Not a lot of people were saying Bosa was "special" that year.  There is no shame in not being as athletically gifted as Garrett and Clowney.

[dgambill]

13 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Cleveland made out well in terms of draft standing, but they also passed on a legit QB prospect. In our situation, I'm not opposed to moving back for a future first.

Oh I agree...I think they just didn’t like any of the qbs in last years draft. Watson being thought unconventional. I think with Darnold or Rosen there at 1 then they pull the trigger. They have multiple needs at 5 that they wouldn’t even have to use ammo to go up and get. Very likely Chubb, Kirkpatrick, or Barkley will be there (all 3 possibly #1 picks in their own right). Even more likely they try to move back and get someone like Nelson or Williams to protect their qb of choice and they get extra picks to surround him with weapons later. Also as gun shy as we might be to take a rb high because of how Richardson turned out Cleveland got burned by him too.  (Although both GMs have changed)