TY Hilton signs new deal (Mega Merge)

[IinD]

This contractwill look good in acouple years and we're paying him a below market rate while he enters his prime. It's aneasy winwin in my head.

[RockThatBlue]

They are. It's a fact.

A fact according to who?

[Colt Forty-Five]

you didn't watch the same game I did then. The ol held up fine...Andrew wasn't really harassed much at all. Our wrs didn't get separation and we failed to move the ball consistantly. This put our defense out on the field way way way too much. Heck it was still a ball game at halftime. We wore out because we didn't have the horses to sustain drives. Of course we wouldn't be great with a 40 yr old back up qb...but let's not act like when we were playing griff Whalen and DHB an injured washed up Reggie Wayne we were moving the ball against good defenses either...nicks and Avery avg receivers didn't produce for us. The only receiver on this team with luck the last 3 yrs that has remotely been successful is TY. Outside Wayne in year 1 when he was still an elite receiver our wide outs have been disappointing...AL can make players better but he isn't Tom Brady/PM/Aaron Rodgers yet. He probably will be soon someday. We need elite playmakers....NE has Gronk...Denver had several...Seattle has marshawn...GB has Nelson and Cobb....we probably aren't going to a sb without a few to help Luck along the way.

 

I never said that TY had no value, just not 65M. Last year he may have been worth more as the cupboard was bare. This year that is not the case so his value has dropped. He will get less balls directed his way and collect a way bigger paycheck. Somehow that does not add up when we have other major needs. If I was him I would be laughing all the way to the bank with all that guaranteed cash! He is not an elite physical specimen and does not have any top 5 skills that would command that much money. I would never pay it. I would sooner get 2-3 descent players at other positions of need and depth need. Receiver is not a position of priority for us as we have tons of them and they all seem to be performing just as well and certainly just as well according to media hype. I would have made him play out this season, save the cash and see how the others do. My guess is that after this season you will find that we didn't really need him that bad after all. My major concern is protecting Andrew. If he goes down your 65M Man is worth zero and there is nothing else to fall back on to help the situation. Fans get star struck by big contracts and have no ability to realistically think about the outcome probabilities of this and other scenarios. This is  a business first and game second!  A very bad business decision in my opinion.  

[BOTT]

I never said that TY had no value, just not 65M. Last year he may have been worth more as the cupboard was bare. This year that is not the case so his value has dropped. He will get less balls directed his way and collect a way bigger paycheck. Somehow that does not add up when we have other major needs. If I was him I would be laughing all the way to the bank with all that guaranteed cash! He is not an elite physical specimen and does not have any top 5 skills that would command that much money. I would never pay it. I would sooner get 2-3 descent players at other positions of need and depth need. Receiver is not a position of priority for us as we have tons of them and they all seem to be performing just as well and certainly just as well according to media hype. I would have made him play out this season, save the cash and see how the others do. My guess is that after this season you will find that we didn't really need him that bad after all. My major concern is protecting Andrew. If he goes down your 65M Man is worth zero and there is nothing else to fall back on to help the situation. Fans get star struck by big contracts and have no ability to realistically think about the outcome probabilities of this and other scenarios. This is  a business first and game second!  A very bad business decision in my opinion.

39m guaranteed is the only number that matters

[ColtRider]

Here's the thing with WRs being a dime-a-dozen mentality. Although conceding the WR corps in the NFL are numerous, it's the water-shedding effect present here. How to compile very-good-to-great wide outs with a very-good-to-great QB while creating a very-good-to- great running game along side a good-to-very-good defense? These are NOT a dime-a-dozen. That's the difference.

That's the Colts. Now. Right now. And it's only going to get better with time. Bank on it.

As a side note : I could go a whole year or two without ever hearing the name ... New England Patriots

[BProland85]

Is it just me or does anyone else think this team could easily survive without Fleener or Allen after this season? I realize we're probably resigning one of them, but with this WR core Indy has, and having Hilton, Moncrief, and Dorsett long term, they really don't need a great TE tandem. I actually think Doyle and McGrath would suffice (I like having tough blocking TEs who can be dependable for short passes to convert 3rd downs.

 

If we keep 1 though, I would want Fleener, but only if he isn't overpaid, since his stats aren't great. As long as we keep this lethal group of WRs, a talented RB, and a OL to protect Luck, this offense will be elite for many years.

[SteelDragon]

More Star Wars' numbers? Oh boy, just what Irsay wanted.......

I know, I know... but some day Star Wars numbers are going to coincide with a Lombardi trophy for some team. I know it hasn't happened yet, but eventually a team with a lights out offense is going to be so dominant that they can win with a middle of the road defense. The NFL, by rulesmakers and GM's team-building, continuously trends towards the direction of the "O" and the passing game.

[ColtStrong]

NO. Someone posted 90% of the cap MUST BE SPENT! We are not the Miami Marlins. The $ would be spent on other players anyway if not on TY. This will not affect a fans pocketbook. And again I'll say, we spent it on a playmaker, game changer and of the best receivers in the nfl.

You're not getting what I meant. Without fans paying for tickets, merchandise, Sunday Ticket, etc..... the owners don't have millions to spend. If the fans stopped spending, the league would fold and no one gets paid. So yeah, indirectly the fans pay his salary.

[BleedBlu8792]

You're not getting what I meant. Without fans paying for tickets, merchandise, Sunday Ticket, etc..... the owners don't have millions to spend. If the fans stopped spending, the league would fold and no one gets paid. So yeah, indirectly the fans pay his salary.

 

He didn't get what I meant either, which is also what you were trying to tell him. Hopefully comprehension kicks in this time...

[braveheartcolt]

I never said that TY had no value, just not 65M. Last year he may have been worth more as the cupboard was bare. This year that is not the case so his value has dropped. He will get less balls directed his way and collect a way bigger paycheck. Somehow that does not add up when we have other major needs. If I was him I would be laughing all the way to the bank with all that guaranteed cash! He is not an elite physical specimen and does not have any top 5 skills that would command that much money. I would never pay it. I would sooner get 2-3 descent players at other positions of need and depth need. Receiver is not a position of priority for us as we have tons of them and they all seem to be performing just as well and certainly just as well according to media hype. I would have made him play out this season, save the cash and see how the others do. My guess is that after this season you will find that we didn't really need him that bad after all. My major concern is protecting Andrew. If he goes down your 65M Man is worth zero and there is nothing else to fall back on to help the situation. Fans get star struck by big contracts and have no ability to realistically think about the outcome probabilities of this and other scenarios. This is  a business first and game second!  A very bad business decision in my opinion.

Great plan. Let TY go, take a big bag of loot down to NFL'R'Us and by 3 'decent' players. Job done, Dynasty on the way.

[chrisfarley]

STEEP

yea, Reggie Wayne never came close to this type of money. I think one year Reggie made like 8 mil. WITH signing bonus prorated figured in.  But Reggie played in a different salary era.  This will hurt the Colts play money down the road, but it's necessary and the salary cap keeps going up so we'll be fine.  Everyone likes TY, he can really afford some man-toys now and can make his family happy too.  There's enough money to go around to all his friends and family for the next 6 years.  Spend it wisely TY and you can turn your money into gold for decades to come!!!

[GoColts8818]

Is it just me or does anyone else think this team could easily survive without Fleener or Allen after this season? I realize we're probably resigning one of them, but with this WR core Indy has, and having Hilton, Moncrief, and Dorsett long term, they really don't need a great TE tandem. I actually think Doyle and McGrath would suffice (I like having tough blocking TEs who can be dependable for short passes to convert 3rd downs.

 

If we keep 1 though, I would want Fleener, but only if he isn't overpaid, since his stats aren't great. As long as we keep this lethal group of WRs, a talented RB, and a OL to protect Luck, this offense will be elite for many years.

Fleener has been our second leading receiver the past couple of years if memory serves me right. I don't think they let him walk away.

[ColtStronger]

So what LBs do you think we should re-sign to a HUGE contract....Freeman?? What LB have we missed out on in FA that would have upgraded us to an elite run stopping defense? You can't spend money on a ficticious LB that doesn't exist! Now you CAN argue why haven't we DRAFTED one of those but since one isn't on the team well Hilton isn't taking his money because there is no such player to PAY.

Not saying this is the solution either, but we do have 5 pretty darn good WR's and 2 of them wont see too many reps, so use them as trade bait!!  Grigson doesn't fear pulling the trigger on a trade...  I do like Dorsett and think he will be good, however with the current needs at LB, I do believe there were better options out there. 

[Colt Forty-Five]

Great plan. Let TY go, take a big bag of loot down to NFL'R'Us and by 3 'decent' players. Job done, Dynasty on the way.

 

I never said let him go. I said make him play this season under the old contract and groom the other talent to replace him .... then let him go and go on a shopping spree to fill needs. Conversely, you could trade him for a first round pick or multi picks or an OL or DL player or two, and save a bunch of cash. To jump the gun early and spend 65M on a car that you have 6 more of in the garage is just stupid. But then again, there are a lot of stupid decisions that are made throughout the NFL every day. 

[braveheartcolt]

Not saying this is the solution either, but we do have 5 pretty darn good WR's and 2 of them wont see too many reps, so use them as trade bait!! Grigson doesn't fear pulling the trigger on a trade... I do like Dorsett and think he will be good, however with the current needs at LB, I do believe there were better options out there.

We have one very good receiver, one who might still be very good, one with 32 catches and two with zero catches. We are starting to believe our own hype about all these great receivers we have, rather than dealing with facts.....

[Colt Forty-Five]

We have one very good receiver, one who might still be very good, one with 32 catches and two with zero catches. We are starting to believe our own hype about all these great receivers we have, rather than dealing with facts.....

 

It's a new season, a clean slate, you can paint whatever picture you want on it.  The only fact you have is that you just spent 65M .... 39M guaranteed  on one of the same inputs that generated the 45-7 output last year. What makes you think that the picture being painted is any different? You know the old saying, "same input = same output! All that happened is that you now handcuffed your self for another $39M .... brilliant move! I would give the guy that made that decision a raise for sure.  

[AntonMcG]

It's a new season, a clean slate, you can paint whatever picture you want on it.  The only fact you have is that you just spent 65M .... 39M guaranteed  on one of the same inputs that generated the 45-7 output last year. What makes you think that the picture being painted is any different? You know the old saying, "same input = same output! All that happened is that you now handcuffed your self for another $39M .... brilliant move! I would give the guy that made that decision a raise for sure.

 

Ha... what a unique rationale you have.

 

Wrong, but unique nonetheless.

[braveheartcolt]

It's a new season, a clean slate, you can paint whatever picture you want on it. The only fact you have is that you just spent 65M .... 39M guaranteed on one of the same inputs that generated the 45-7 output last year. What makes you think that the picture being painted is any different? You know the old saying, "same input = same output! All that happened is that you now handcuffed your self for another $39M .... brilliant move! I would give the guy that made that decision a raise for sure.

No, you are right. What was I thinking. We should spend a ton of money on an expensive Right Tackle for a start. Then all our dreams will come true. Because as you have rightly pointed out, having money to spend = guaranteed success. Why spend good money on someone you know is outstanding when you can take a chance on unproven players. Genius.

[Colt Forty-Five]

Ha... what a unique rationale you have.

 

Wrong, but unique nonetheless.

 

Simple math my friend .... fixed inputs generate fixed outputs ... good or bad .... but at what cost .... and compared to what? What makes anyone think that fixing this input will generate anything different is beyond me. Even if you look at the situation historically, not that history has anything to do with the future, compare the return on investment from TY the past 3 years to anything you could possibly get from him in the future. It's not like he will all of a sudden generate 20x the return to warrant paying him 20x more. Even if he did produce 20x more you have to subtract from that the return you would likely get from one of the lesser paid guys if TY was traded. This is just stupid business.  I don't think my money and the other fans money is being well spent and it will not change the outcome! 

[Colt Forty-Five]

No, you are right. What was I thinking. We should spend a ton of money on an expensive Right Tackle for a start. Then all our dreams will come true. Because as you have rightly pointed out, having money to spend = guaranteed success. Why spend good money on someone you know is outstanding when you can take a chance on unproven players. Genius.

 

If you are happy paying 65M more for the same 45-7 outcome then I cannot argue with that! Happy days for you!

[AntonMcG]

Simple math my friend .... fixed inputs generate fixed outputs ... good or bad .... but at what cost .... and compared to what? What makes anyone think that fixing this input will generate anything different is beyond me. Even if you look at the situation historically, not that history has anything to do with the future, compare the return on investment from TY the past 3 years to anything you could possibly get from him in the future. It's not like he will all of a sudden generate 20x the return to warrant paying him 20x more. Even if he did produce 20x more you have to subtract from that the return you would likely get from one of the lesser paid guys if TY was traded. This is just stupid business.  I don't think my money and the other fans money is being well spent and it will not change the outcome! 

 

Good lord, so much wrong with this, I don't know where to begin.

 

Did you get your MBA in a cereal box?

[Jason_]

If you are happy paying 65M more for the same 45-7 outcome then I cannot argue with that! Happy days for you!

 

Well there's no arguing with that...."logic"

[Jason_]

Simple math my friend .... fixed inputs generate fixed outputs ... good or bad .... but at what cost .... and compared to what? What makes anyone think that fixing this input will generate anything different is beyond me. Even if you look at the situation historically, not that history has anything to do with the future, compare the return on investment from TY the past 3 years to anything you could possibly get from him in the future. It's not like he will all of a sudden generate 20x the return to warrant paying him 20x more. Even if he did produce 20x more you have to subtract from that the return you would likely get from one of the lesser paid guys if TY was traded. This is just stupid business.  I don't think my money and the other fans money is being well spent and it will not change the outcome! 

 

There's far too much fail in this post to go through it on a point by point basis...but to your last sentence...perhaps you should stop sending checks to Irsay.

[Colt Forty-Five]

Good lord, so much wrong with this, I don't know where to begin.

 

Did you get your MBA in a cereal box?

 

It does not require an MBA ... even one from a ceral box ... to figure out that you just paid 20x more for a cow that will generate, at best, the same amount of milk as before. Unfortunately, that amount of milk resulted in a 45-7 hunger! Even if you don't get the fact that you are getting a bad return on your new investment, for crying out loud, do something different or another 45-7 drubbing is in the works!

[Jason_]

It does not require an MBA ... even one from a ceral box ... to figure out that you just paid 20x more for a cow that will generate, at best, the same amount of milk as before. Unfortunately, that amount of milk resulted in a 45-7 hunger! Even if you don't get the fact that you are getting a bad return on your new investment, for crying out loud, do something different or another 45-7 drubbing is in the works!

 

Yeah, Dairy cow management does not correlate in any way to managing an NFL roster.  For someone who's claimed in multiple posts to know how things "really" work in the NFL, you seem to actually have NO idea how things work in the NFL.

[AntonMcG]

It does not require an MBA ... even one from a ceral box ... to figure out that you just paid 20x more for a cow that will generate, at best, the same amount of milk as before. Unfortunately, that amount of milk resulted in a 45-7 hunger! Even if you don't get the fact that you are getting a bad return on your new investment, for crying out loud, do something different or another 45-7 drubbing is in the works!

 

Okay, to humor you, I will ask a few questions...

 

- Do players usually peak in their 3rd year?

- Do you let every productive player to leave after their rookie contract due to the increased cost?

- Do you understand the complexities of cause and effect when dealing with a plethora of inputs to generate outputs?

[Colt Forty-Five]

Yeah, Dairy cow management does not correlate in any way to managing an NFL roster.  For someone who's claimed in multiple posts to know how things "really" work in the NFL, you seem to actually have NO idea how things work in the NFL.

 

What kind of comeback is that? Please enlighten me great swammy. Show me your math that makes sense from a business perspective.

[Colt Forty-Five]

Okay, to humor you, I will ask a few questions...

 

- Do players usually peak in there 3rd year?

- Do you let every productive player to leave after their rookie contract due to the increased cost?

- Do you understand the complexities of cause and effect when dealing with a plethora of inputs to generate outputs?

- Do players usually peak in there 3rd year? Or sooner if they play with a QB like Rogers, Brady or Luck!

- Do you let every productive player to leave after their rookie contract due to the increased cost? No, only the ones that I have an oversupply of or are not a scarce commodity!

- Do you understand the complexities of cause and effect when dealing with a plethora of inputs to generate outputs? I think I eluded to this in my posts but you seem to think that a "Cereal Box MBA" is not adequate to demonstrate this point!

[Jason_]

What kind of comeback is that? Please enlighten me great swammy. Show me your math that makes sense from a business perspective.

 

Sorry, I'm out of crayons and construction paper

[Gavin]

Sorry, I'm out of crayons and construction paper

That's going to get you a demerit young man

[AntonMcG]

- Do players usually peak in there 3rd year? Or sooner if they play with a QB like Rogers, Brady or Luck!

- Do you let every productive player to leave after their rookie contract due to the increased cost? No, only the ones that I have an oversupply of or are not a scarce commodity!

- Do you understand the complexities of cause and effect when dealing with a plethora of inputs to generate outputs? I think I eluded to this in my posts but you seem to think that a "Cereal Box MBA" is not adequate to demonstrate this point!

 

1) Okay, examples please.

2) I believe you are massively over estimating this supply, but fine.

3) No, you most certainly did not. You implied that a single output resulted in the '45-7' output, and claimed it to be simple math. You need to realize how wrong you are here.

[Larry Horseman]

I didn't say we didn't invest, I'm saying we invested substantially more in total offense than defense.

 

Well, I think the numbers say otherwise, and we also must have a much different definition of substantial. 

[Colt Forty-Five]

1) Okay, examples please.

2) I believe you are massively over estimating this supply, but fine.

3) No, you most certainly did not. You implied that a single output resulted in the '45-7' output, and claimed it to be simple math. You need to realize how wrong you are here.

 

Mr. Ceral Box MBA, pick your battles based on something other than "hype". Fact is ... signing TY to a $39 guaranteed deal at this point was a bone head move, especially since it does not positively affect any other variable, produce you no more output , could have been put off until after the season and in no way improves your ability to overcome a potential 45-7 future drubbing ..... never mind the "plethora" of other variables that you could throw in to the argument. 

[Superman]

1) Okay, examples please.

2) I believe you are massively over estimating this supply, but fine.

3) No, you most certainly did not. You implied that a single output resulted in the '45-7' output, and claimed it to be simple math. You need to realize how wrong you are here.

 

Evidently, every decision the Colts made should be viewed through the "Will it help us beat the Patriots?" prism. 

 

[AntonMcG]

Evidently, every decision the Colts made should be viewed through the "Will it help us beat the Patriots?" prism. 

 

 

#stoptherun

[ColtStronger]

We have one very good receiver, one who might still be very good, one with 32 catches and two with zero catches. We are starting to believe our own hype about all these great receivers we have, rather than dealing with facts.....

Sure, you're correct, but we have 2 very good WR's.  Somebody with Johnson's talent doesn't fall off!  He is the 9th best receiver of all time, and still adding to that.  Those types of things don't really change!  On the flipside why don't we also be honest about our OL and front 7 on defense... Strictly average or even subpar.  Only time will tell.  My point is about balance, not just trying to run teams out off the field with the best offense!

[AntonMcG]

Mr. Ceral Box MBA, pick your battles based on something other than "hype". Fact is ... signing TY to a $39 guaranteed deal at this point was a bone head move, especially since it does not positively affect any other variable, produce you no more output , could have been put off until after the season and in no way improves your ability to overcome a potential 45-7 future drubbing ..... never mind the "plethora" of other variables that you could throw in to the argument. 

 

Oh, so they're variables now? I thought they were fixed inputs...

 

Surely, by that logic, it can produce more output.

 

The ultimate paradox.

 

Mind-blowing.

[braveheartcolt]

Sure, you're correct, but we have 2 very good WR's. Somebody with Johnson's talent doesn't fall off! He is the 9th best receiver of all time, and still adding to that. Those types of things don't really change! On the flipside why don't we also be honest about our OL and front 7 on defense... Strictly average or even subpar. Only time will tell. My point is about balance, not just trying to run teams out off the field with the best offense!

I fully agree about balance. With you 100% on that. But taking a risk on losing our only proven WR who knows our system, set-up and has excellent chemistry with #12 would potentially unbalance us. We have plenty opportunities to get the balance right. Letting TY go is not one of them.

[Colt Forty-Five]

Oh, so they're variables now? I thought they were fixed inputs...

 

Surely, by that logic, it can produce more output.

 

The ultimate paradox.

 

Mind-blowing.

 

Buddy, just give it up. Bottom line is there are no guarantees except the ones you make. Simple law of holes .... "when in one stop digging". Read my lips .... the TY deal did absolutely nothing to improve this team now or in the future .... period! The rest is another argument.

[ColtStronger]

Mr. Ceral Box MBA, pick your battles based on something other than "hype". Fact is ... signing TY to a $39 guaranteed deal at this point was a bone head move, especially since it does not positively affect any other variable, produce you no more output , could have been put off until after the season and in no way improves your ability to overcome a potential 45-7 future drubbing ..... never mind the "plethora" of other variables that you could throw in to the argument. 

EXACTLY!  For the people who think some fans are over confident in Carter, Dorsett, and Moncriefs abilities.  TY's agent knew what he was doing, by getting this deal done NOW!  He put it off until after bigger names Bryant and Thomas contracts were complete, merely to argue TY's worth.  Driving the market price up!  Although TY is a tier 1 WR, he is probably at the bottom of that tier, unlike Calvin Johnson the two others I previously mentioned among a couple others, who are impossible to shut down.  It's very hard to shutdown TY, but not impossible! 

 

Im not arguing this is a bad signing, but why not at least wait til next season, to exclude the "what-ifs" on our so-called overhyped players.  That case we can see if it was a good idea or not, without jumping the gun.  If they don't turn out good, no harm no foul, but say they do develope into something special, now we have an issue on our hands.  Regardless, people will argue we have plenty of money to sign those players too!  Meanwhile, the mediocre defense still may just hold us back from climbing the mountain and beating the Packers, Seahawks, or Patriots.  To me I think a re-sign in trade of TY could get us a #1 pick or even an elite LB from a needy WR team. 

 

Anyway, this is all just speculation...