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ITT: Say something you predicted correctly and something you predicted wrong in relation to either FA or the draft last offseason.


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Correct: Kyle Long is going to be a complete studmeister in this league. (So far he has been imo). Also that my man Alshon was going to break out as a top receiver. 

Completely wrong: When we first acquired Trent I immediately had thoughts of pro-bowl qb Luck and pro-bowl rb Trent. He hasn't done anything since coming here imo, part of it is the ines fault, part of it is Trent's fault. The only flash he has showed is that he can catch open passes, and run after catching said passes when there is open field in front of him or 1/2 guys. 

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I don't make predictions very often, so I had to think about this for a bit. Came up with a couple.

 

Correct: Ed Reed would be terrible, and the Ravens would hardly miss him.

 

Incorrect: Sam Montgomery would be good as a rookie.

 

Coincidentally, both are related to the Texans.

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last two years

correct- keenan allen would be the best wide receiver in the draft

correct- dolphins will have solid qb since marino

correct- Wilson and Luck  will be top 10 qbs in nfl

correct- Fredrick would be a stud in the nfl

incorrect- peter konz would be a probowl caliber center

incorrect- Montee ball would be the lead back and run with it

incorrect -Jordan would be a 10 sack guy out of the gate

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Correct-- We signed too many players with injury history and it would come back to bite us.

 

Incorrect-- Khaled Holmes would be starting week 1.

You may not be correct about what you think you are correct about....

We have had a lot of injuries, but this is the NFL.  Of the 7 players we signed who were expected to be starters, 1 is on IR, 1 has missed 6 games and 1 has missed 4 games.  Kinda the going rate.  Given our other injuries, I'd say it is a good thing we signed them not that it has come back to bite us.  Sorry to nitpick on what is a simple, fun post.  While I don't think you are technically correct, this is much moreso directed to the masses that are quick to say "see I told you so" about a group of free agents that has largely come in and done their jobs well, stayed off the police blotter, while being part of the foundation of the future.  DHB is an exception, and I'd include him in the 7, but he was really a secondary free agent not a core guy.

 

Of the 6 core FA, all project as year 2 starters with contracts that still make sense after we have seen them in action for a year.  Not bad Grigs, not bad.

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ok since we're going back to 2012 too:

 

Correct:

 

Nick Foles could/would be one of the top 3 QB's from the 2012 draft

Alameda Ta'amu is nothing special

RG3 would struggle in the NFL

 

Incorrect:

 

Brandon Weeden would/could be a pretty good QB

Ryan Tannehill played much better in year 1 than I thought he would (I do think he would have struggled a lot more had he not had his College coach as his pro OC.  That was a good move by Miami)

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Correct : God, there's so many to choose from. :D We should have drafted Warford in 1st rd. despite almost everybody saying he wasn't good enough. 

Correct : Richardson trade was a collassal mistake.

Correct : Bob3 wasn't even close to the talent that Luck has.

 

Incorrect : Tyrann Mathieu would suck.

Incorrect : Aubrayo Franklin would be a good signing.

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You may not be correct about what you think you are correct about....

We have had a lot of injuries, but this is the NFL.  Of the 7 players we signed who were expected to be starters, 1 is on IR, 1 has missed 6 games and 1 has missed 4 games.  Kinda the going rate.  Given our other injuries, I'd say it is a good thing we signed them not that it has come back to bite us.  Sorry to nitpick on what is a simple, fun post.  While I don't think you are technically correct, this is much moreso directed to the masses that are quick to say "see I told you so" about a group of free agents that has largely come in and done their jobs well, stayed off the police blotter, while being part of the foundation of the future.  DHB is an exception, and I'd include him in the 7, but he was really a secondary free agent not a core guy.

 

Of the 6 core FA, all project as year 2 starters with contracts that still make sense after we have seen them in action for a year.  Not bad Grigs, not bad.

RJF has missed multiple games.

Donald THomas on IR.

Toler still missing a string of games.

Landry has missed 2-3 games.

Ahmad Bradshaw while not a key FA at the time he is also on IR and should be included if you included DHB.

The only significant FA's we signed who hasn't missed time is Cherilus and Walden.

 

THis is no knock on Grigson. On the contrary the way he has the contracts structured is genius. He front loaded the contract and has the ability to cut them at any time without huge reprucussions. He signed them to prove it deal and if they don't prove it he can get rid of them and go for strike 2 in this year's FA.

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RJF has missed multiple games.

Donald THomas on IR.

Toler still missing a string of games.

Landry has missed 2-3 games.

Ahmad Bradshaw while not a key FA at the time he is also on IR and should be included if you included DHB.

The only significant FA's we signed who hasn't missed time is Cherilus and Walden.

 

THis is no knock on Grigson. On the contrary the way he has the contracts structured is genius. He front loaded the contract and has the ability to cut them at any time without huge reprucussions. He signed them to prove it deal and if they don't prove it he can get rid of them and go for strike 2 in this year's FA.

I don't really get where all this has come back to bite us...

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I don't really get where all this has come back to bite us...

Greg Toler goes down-- We get to watch Cassius Vaughn get burnt repeatedly until they are forced to move Butler outside out of necesity. Hurt the team

 

Donald Thomas on IR-- Forced Thornton into the starting lineup possibly too soon. If Donald hadn't been hurt could Thornton pushed out Mcglynn at RG and had not only been a more stable interior of the line but also some depth there as well?

 

The only reason RJF and Laron Landry missing games hasn't hurt us is because Howell and Moala/Montori Hughes have been able to give similar production but not because the production they were replacing was All Pro level by any means.

 

And the million dollar winner... if we hadn't lost Brashaw would we have traded our first for Richardson?

 

We signed and gambled on players with an injury history (Landry, Bradshaw, Toler) to come in and stay healthy. While only one has hit the IR is it not safe to say that the gamble has not paid off and has hurt this team in stretches? I personally think a lot of the issues right now in the secondary stem from Toler being hurt and Vaughn not being able to man up effectively. We would still have a 1st if Bradshaw was healthy right now. Year 2 might be a different story but history tells me it won't be. That is my opinion.

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Greg Toler goes down-- We get to watch Cassius Vaughn get burnt repeatedly until they are forced to move Butler outside out of necesity. Hurt the team

Donald Thomas on IR-- Forced Thornton into the starting lineup possibly too soon. If Donald hadn't been hurt could Thornton pushed out Mcglynn at RG and had not only been a more stable interior of the line but also some depth there as well?

The only reason RJF and Laron Landry missing games hasn't hurt us is because Howell and Moala/Montori Hughes have been able to give similar production but not because the production they were replacing was All Pro level by any means.

And the million dollar winner... if we hadn't lost Brashaw would we have traded our first for Richardson?

We signed and gambled on players with an injury history (Landry, Bradshaw, Toler) to come in and stay healthy. While only one has hit the IR is it not safe to say that the gamble has not paid off and has hurt this team in stretches? I personally think a lot of the issues right now in the secondary stem from Toler being hurt and Vaughn not being able to man up effectively. We would still have a 1st if Bradshaw was healthy right now. Year 2 might be a different story but history tells me it won't be. That is my opinion.

We traded for Richardson before Bradshaw got injured.

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Correct: Jaimie Collins was going to have to be a backup a couple years do to lack of strength and flexibility and that his college numbers were inflated somewhat do to some of his sacks coming from being unblocked

 

Incorrect:I thought Jarvis Jones would be much more of a factor early on then he has been BUT he has only started 7 games

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2012

 

Correct: If we drafted Luck, draft would be Offense heavy

 

Correct: Fleener was a one dimensional TE

 

Incorrect: Vic Ballard was a reach (glad I was wrong)

 

2013

 

Correct: Toler would not give us a full season, questionable acquisition

 

Correct about what would happen to team if Reggie went down

 

incorrect about a possible #1 WR on team (see Whalen and Rogers???)

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Correct: Star Lotulelei would be the best player in this draft and should have went 1st overall to pair with Poe, I even said that we should trade our 2014 1st round pick to get him. He would have been great with the Colts.

 

Incorrect; So wrong about Larry Warford i thought he was overweight and would eat his way out of the league, saw him as a 3rd round pick. Gotta give credit to Archer he called this one, he lobbied for Warford since day 1 and said he had pro bowl talent. 

 

 I also said Kawann Short would be a sleeper pick the Panthers got a 1st round talent in the 2nd round.

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Greg Toler goes down-- We get to watch Cassius Vaughn get burnt repeatedly until they are forced to move Butler outside out of necesity. Hurt the team

 

Donald Thomas on IR-- Forced Thornton into the starting lineup possibly too soon. If Donald hadn't been hurt could Thornton pushed out Mcglynn at RG and had not only been a more stable interior of the line but also some depth there as well?

 

The only reason RJF and Laron Landry missing games hasn't hurt us is because Howell and Moala/Montori Hughes have been able to give similar production but not because the production they were replacing was All Pro level by any means.

 

And the million dollar winner... if we hadn't lost Brashaw would we have traded our first for Richardson?

 

We signed and gambled on players with an injury history (Landry, Bradshaw, Toler) to come in and stay healthy. While only one has hit the IR is it not safe to say that the gamble has not paid off and has hurt this team in stretches? I personally think a lot of the issues right now in the secondary stem from Toler being hurt and Vaughn not being able to man up effectively. We would still have a 1st if Bradshaw was healthy right now. Year 2 might be a different story but history tells me it won't be. That is my opinion.

I do understand the point you are trying to make, and I realize you have already corrected the Bradshaw mistake.  Before leaving the Bradshaw topic, let's identify that he was a bonus signing who was expected to miss time.  His injury hurts the upside potential of this team, but nobody in their right mind expected him to make it through the season healthy - they hoped, but didn't build the team around it.  He isn't in the conversation.

 

I'll agree about Toler.  I don't think our 4th CB (Vaughn) is good enough to sign a player with Toler's history and not do more behind him.  There were other journeyman or developmental CB's available that we chose not to move on.  The exception I take with your post is that has very little to do with Toler and everything to do with depth planning.  A FA signing can only hurt the team if it costs so much that you can't afford to build depth (and he gets injured), or the player underperforms relative to the contract value. Both of those things occur every year in the NFL and none have occurred here in  2013.  

 

The signing of Sam Satele on the other hand would be the perfect example of the point I think you are trying to make.

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Correct: Keenan Allen should be a first round pick and is the best receiver in the draft

Correct: Jordan Reed will breakout with the Skins

 

Incorrect: Montee Ball would become the starting RB in Denver

Incorrect: Jon Cyprien is a stud S

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