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EXPECT BIG GAME FOR TRENT

OLD FAN MAN

By OLD FAN MAN
in Colts Football

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Papa-pwn Walk On

Papa-pwn

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Unlikely. Denver is number 1 against the run, and that's not just because teams pass more because Denver is also 2nd in defensive YPC.

Add in the fact that Indy will probably be playing catch up most of the game and I wouldn't expect much, if anything from Richardson. Maybe 15 carries for 50 yards or so.

Luck, however, should have an above average showing.

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Gavin Walk On

Gavin

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thats what they said last week

He had 40 yards on only 10 carries thats 4.0 ypc pretty good given how much our offense was on the field. Had the defense been able to get off the field and we been able to catch the ball on offense better then Richardson likely has more carries

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bap1331 Walk On

bap1331

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thats what they said last week

 

Lets not forget he didn't do so bad on Monday against the Chargers, it shows that he is improving.

 

Plus, we have to take into account that the oline is not the greatest at the run block, so these runningbacks have to slip through the oline and dline as quick as possible to make a run..

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GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

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Lets not forget he didn't do so bad on Monday against the Chargers, it shows that he is improving.

 

Plus, we have to take into account that the oline is not the greatest at the run block, so these runningbacks have to slip through the oline and dline as quick as possible to make a run..

What gets forgotten about Monday night was that Trent averaged 4.0 yards a carry.  You can live with that in the NFL.  With that said if I recall he had one big run that skewed things in his favor.  Still I think we need a big night from our ground game to have a chance.

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HtownColt Walk On

HtownColt

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Trent is a career 3.5 YPC guy. The Broncos defense is allowing the 2nd lowest YPC average this season. If he has a big day, it will be through the air, not on the ground.

Played Ravens, Giants, Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, Jags..not really world beaters on the ground except for the Eagles who had 166 yards on the ground against the Broncos
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backshoulderfade Walk On

backshoulderfade

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Denvers run D and pass D stats arent nessessarily indicative of how good they are at each, respectively. They get their big leads and teams are forced to air out the ball and abandon the run, causing skewed stats.

I dont expect trent to go off for 6 yards per carry but I do expect a respectable 4.2 maybe 16 carries. Maybe a short yardage touchdown too.

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braveheartcolt Practice Squad

braveheartcolt

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What gets forgotten about Monday night was that Trent averaged 4.0 yards a carry.  You can live with that in the NFL.  With that said if I recall he had one big run that skewed things in his favor.  Still I think we need a big night from our ground game to have a chance.

Dear God. Please stop with this 'not counting' the big runs. It's all I've heard for years re DB. Why don't we discount the negative/short yards as well, as they distort the average as well. When the idea is too gain as many yards as possible, and then we try and ignore them when it happens, it seems pretty stupid. 

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SteelCityColt Hall of Famer

SteelCityColt

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Dear God. Please stop with this 'not counting' the big runs. It's all I've heard for years re DB. Why don't we discount the negative/short yards as well, as they distort the average as well. When the idea is too gain as many yards as possible, and then we try and ignore them when it happens, it seems pretty stupid.

But but then the stats wouldn't be supporting his point? You know stats are useless unless you massage them to suit your needs :P

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SkyBane Walk On

SkyBane

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Dear God. Please stop with this 'not counting' the big runs. It's all I've heard for years re DB. Why don't we discount the negative/short yards as well, as they distort the average as well. When the idea is too gain as many yards as possible, and then we try and ignore them when it happens, it seems pretty stupid.

Its not a RB exclusive sentiment, its a mathematical common usage. When creating an average, discounting an extreme outlier gives a better picture of the true mean.

So in this case, the extreme outlier would be the one big run. If you discount it from the YPC (an average), but mention it happened and you discounted it, it gives the reader a better idea of the standard production, and why the YPC including the one breakout run may be misleading as to the actual standard production per handoff.

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xXBOXADDICTx Walk On

xXBOXADDICTx

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trent has had time to learn the playbook,and I expect some pitchouts and short passes to him also some one back sets running at their speed rushers who leave holes, big day for trent!

Lets hope so, I think keeping Peyton off the field with ball control and clock management is a key factor.. just my $.02

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braveheartcolt Practice Squad

braveheartcolt

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Its not a RB exclusive sentiment, its a mathematical common usage. When creating an average, discounting an extreme outlier gives a better picture of the true mean.

So in this case, the extreme outlier would be the one big run. If you discount it from the YPC (an average), but mention it happened and you discounted it, it gives the reader a better idea of the standard production, and why the YPC including the one breakout run may be misleading as to the actual standard production per handoff.

You are not the first to throw in this 'scientific' guff. RB's are paid to get yards, and the longer the run, the better the result. So I'm not going to discount them from anything.

 

Einstein.

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Papa-pwn Walk On

Papa-pwn

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Played Ravens, Giants, Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, Jags..not really world beaters on the ground except for the Eagles who had 166 yards on the ground against the Broncos

Don't look at total yards, rather YPC. Regardless, Denver is ranked highly for both and is very obviously amazing against the run. Due to the 4 man DL averaging near 300lbs across, and having insanely fast LBs to clean up.

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Everyone Walk On

Everyone

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He had 40 yards on only 10 carries thats 4.0 ypc pretty good given how much our offense was on the field. Had the defense been able to get off the field and we been able to catch the ball on offense better then Richardson likely has more carries

I didn't say he sucked and was never going to have a good game, I just mentioned that they said he was going to have a huge game last week. Denver has the #1 ranked rush defense I just don't think this is the week.

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Happy2BeHere Ring of Honor

Happy2BeHere

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Eh I'm. to counting on anything here.

Where the colts and broncos are statistically I believe is all irrelevant. For example...the chargers pass defense was one of the worst in the league but managed to contain us rather well (yes don't bring up the dropped passes).

Bottom line is ANY GIVEN SUNDAY!!

Not anyone can expect this game to go as they think, it's a free for all IMO and anything can happen here, and of course I hope the Colts are the one who make it happen!

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GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

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Dear God. Please stop with this 'not counting' the big runs. It's all I've heard for years re DB. Why don't we discount the negative/short yards as well, as they distort the average as well. When the idea is too gain as many yards as possible, and then we try and ignore them when it happens, it seems pretty stupid.

where did I say it didn't count? I didn't so don't put words in my mouth. I just said it skews the average a little bit which it does but like I said you can live with a 4.0 ypc in the NFL.
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husker61 Active Roster

husker61

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trent has had time to learn the playbook,and I expect some pitchouts and short passes to him also some one back sets running at their speed rushers who leave holes, big day for trent!

 

but has he learned, after over a year, to hit the right hole??

 

doubtful, cleveland learned this.

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braveheartcolt Practice Squad

braveheartcolt

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where did I say it didn't count? I didn't so don't put words in my mouth. I just said it skews the average a little bit which it does but like I said you can live with a 4.0 ypc in the NFL.

It was a generic statement to those that whinge about it. Your comment just added more fuel to that particular fire. T'is all.

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GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

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It was a generic statement to those that whinge about it. Your comment just added more fuel to that particular fire. T'is all.

Well I wasn't upset about it.  I was happy with Trent on Monday night aside from the drop which has nothing to do with his YPC.  I get it, he's a power back he's going to pound into the line and get you two to three yards till the second half probably the fourth quarter when the defense will start to give way and then he'll get big runs because they are worn out.  I watched Edge do that all the time when he was here.  I don't think Trent has the speed Edge had and is probably a little more physical than Edge was but I think it's the same principal.  You have to pound him into the other defense till it gives way. 

 

I was just saying his YPC was skewed a little bit because when you average things you look for outliers and his one run was that but with power backs that's what you are looking for.  Pound and pound till the defense breaks. 

 

I think we are going to need him tonight because a power running game takes some pressure off of Luck and let's us pound on the Broncos D and wear them down and puts more pressure on Peyton to score every position he has the ball. 

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HtownColt Walk On

HtownColt

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Don't look at total yards, rather YPC. Regardless, Denver is ranked highly for both and is very obviously amazing against the run. Due to the 4 man DL averaging near 300lbs across, and having insanely fast LBs to clean up.

Because they played those 6 teams who are inept of running the ball except for the Eagles.

their opponents(Giants, Raiders, Jags, Cowboys, Eagles) are a combined 11-25, cupcake schedule so far

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Kenny Walk On

Kenny

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He's been here what 4 games? That's the equivalent of the pre season but the games count basically. Give the guy some freakin time FFS. I said I'm not expecting him to really feel in sync with the O until after the BYE and I'm sticking with it. I did think he looked very solid when used last week though.

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husker61 Active Roster

husker61

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I get it, he's a power back he's going to pound into the line and get you two to three yards till the second half probably the fourth quarter when the defense will start to give way and then he'll get big runs because they are worn out.  I watched Edge do that all the time when he was here. 

 

 

this didn't happen all last year and 6 games this year. miraculously he is going to be able to hit the right hole all of a sudden? just because you have size and speed doesn't mean you are going to be a top player. edge, like other top backs, has the ability to see the correct hole. like i said in another thread, backs ether have that ability or they don't. tr hasn't shown it in the nfl.

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