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Looks like the playoffs for the colts

Big Al

By Big Al
in Colts Football

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#12 Walk On

#12

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Posted
Jets lose, that puts us into the playoffs correct?

 

I don't think so, and it's confusing because both the published scenarios and simulators appear to be wrong.  I believe we still need a Steelers loss.  A Bengals loss won't do it.

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Big Al Walk On

Big Al

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As Krunk 

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 

Clinch playoff berth with: 

1) IND win or tie OR 
2) PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie 

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/68596/2012-nfl-week-16-playoff-scenarios
 

As krunk posted this was posted  before this weeks games were played both have happened. Steelers lost and so did the Jets.  By their criteria we should be in!!!

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#12 Walk On

#12

Posted
Posted
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 

Clinch playoff berth with: 

1) IND win or tie OR 

2) PIT loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie 

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/68596/2012-nfl-week-16-playoff-scenarios

 

 

Now it's right.  This is what had been printed.

 

Last week:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis clinches a playoff spot with:

1) IND win OR2) IND tie + CIN loss or tie OR

3) IND tie + PIT loss or tie OR

4) IND tie + BAL win OR

5) NYJ loss or tie + CIN loss OR

6) NYJ loss or tie + BAL win + CIN tie + PIT tie

 

This week:

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis clinches a playoff spot with:

1) IND win OR

2) IND tie + CIN loss
or tie OR

3) IND tie +
PIT loss or tie OR

4) IND tie + BAL
win OR

5) NYJ loss or tie
+ CIN loss
OR

6) NYJ loss or tie +
BAL win + CIN tie + PIT tie

 

 

 

 

We're cheering for Cincy this week, not against.

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tncolts Walk On

tncolts

Posted
Posted

Here is why the Colts still have not clinched; I verified this with ESPN Playoff Simulator:

 

Week 16

Colts Lose AND Steelers Win AND (Chargers Win OR Tie) AND (Raiders Win OR Tie) AND (Texans Win OR Tie) AND (Falcons Win OR Tie) -- Strength of Victory would come into play as the tie-breaker.

 

This is really complicated but if all the above hold true and then a whole bunch of stuff happens in week 17 (including a Colts loss) we would be out.  Needless to say I like our chances to make it.  Bottom line, we win Sunday and we clinch the 5th Seed.

 

I just thought I would post this because I've tried on and off all day to try and figure out why the NFL was not saying the Colts clinch with a Jets loss and finally figured it out.  Thought I would share it here.

 

In my scenario for week 17 I had the following teams winning:  Falcons, Jets, Bengals, Bears, Jaguars, Texans, Packers, Patriots, Saints, Giants, Steelers, Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, 49ers, Seahawks.  Just in case anyone wants to run this scenario.

 

Go Colts!!!!!

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chrisfarley Practice Squad

chrisfarley

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It is very likely that pittsburgh will win, which means we MUST win another game *or two. One would help, obviously we probably don't have a shot at the last game (week 17) because of JJ WATT and Foster will go for 181 on us, and if we play M. Moore, well you know, it will all end bad. But anyway, our only hope is to beat K.C. or hope for a pittsburgh loss, but that aint gonna happen. BIGBEN is * and he hasn't been out to the clubs in a while, so yea, he's ticked.

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#12 Walk On

#12

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Even if the Colts lost out, it would take a perfect storm of former opponents winning/losing the right/wrong games to keep the Colts out of the playoffs. 

 

Not really, FJC.  Pittsburgh would have to win both.  Entirely possible, if not likely.  Baltimore could either lose both or beat the Giants and lose to the Bengals, and if Baltimore beats the Giants, they would have nothing to play for vs. the Bengals while the Bengals would still have a playoff spot on the line.  That's it.  I believe all three would have the tiebreakers over us.  Contrary to what the simulators say, that's all it would take - Pittsburgh winning both and Cincinnati beating Baltimore in a possibly meaningless game for Baltimore.. 

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FireJimCaldwell Walk On

FireJimCaldwell

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Not really, FJC.  Pittsburgh would have to win both.  Entirely possible, if not likely.  Baltimore could either lose both or beat the Giants and lose to the Bengals, and if Baltimore beats the Giants, they would have nothing to play for vs. the Bengals while the Bengals would still have a playoff spot on the line.  That's it.  I believe all three would have the tiebreakers over us.  Contrary to what the simulators say, that's all it would take - Pittsburgh winning both and Cincinnati beating Baltimore in a possibly meaningless game for Baltimore.. 

I wasn't going by simulators. Even with two games to go, there are a lot of variables. in play and the scenarios just described would basically fit the perfect storm, or imperfect storm I spoke of. 

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GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

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There is a very strange way that could have the Colts missing the playoffs right now.  So many teams would have to lose and win that i can't even get it up to come up on the NFL playoff machine on espn.com.  I saw earlier today that if the Jets lose tonight we have a 99.9973% chance of making the playoffs.  In other words there is a better chance the world ends on December 21st than there is that we miss the playoffs. 

 

UPDATE:
 

Found it!  In order for the Colts to miss the playoffs ALL of this has to happen.

 

Colts lose twice, Steelers beat the Bengals, Bengals beat the Ravens, Chargers beat the Jets, Raiders beat the Panthers, Chiefs beat the Broncos, Vikings beat the Texans, Jets beat the Bills, Bears beat the Lions, Jaguars beat the Titans, Patriots beat the Dolphins, and the Steelers beat the Browns.

 

It is still extremely important that win against KC or the Texans though and wrap up the five seed.  The difference in going to the AFC North Champion or probably New England is HUGE. 

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#12 Walk On

#12

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Posted
I wasn't going by simulators. Even with two games to go, there are a lot of variables. in play and the scenarios just described would basically fit the perfect storm, or imperfect storm I spoke of. 

 

To me, the Steelers beating the Bengals and Browns along with the Bengals beating the Ravens in a possibly meaningless game would qualify as something significantly less than a perfect storm.  You would put money on two of the three, and possibly the third depending upon the circumstances. 

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Big Al Walk On

Big Al

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Wrong, Al.  It was posted this morning, so only one half of the second condition has been met.  Pittsburgh needs to lose or you need to win for you guys to be in.

 Yeah, it looks like they updated it from the last time I saw the post. It's like a jungle of if then statements that you have to read through now lol.

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FireJimCaldwell Walk On

FireJimCaldwell

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Posted
To me, the Steelers beating the Bengals and Browns along with the Bengals beating the Ravens in a possibly meaningless game would qualify as something significantly less than a perfect storm.  You would put money on two of the three, and possibly the third depending upon the circumstances. 

It would take a perfect storm for the Colts to lose the Chiefs.

 

gocolts8818 spells the scenario out which is dependent on 13 specific results.. .Hence perfect storm. 

 

The playoffs isn't the question, it's where will the Colts play at this point. 

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krunk Ring of Honor

krunk

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Posted

I think the Steelers will lose this weekend.  I don't think the Bengals are going to give up the position that they just gained over the Steelers.  Bengals are the better team.   Man I want to get in the tournament so bad!  I'm so impatient right now!!  I think some of the "ifs and fifths" scenarios will happen this weekend, mainly  another Steelers loss.  However, why don't we just going and whip the Chiefs this weekend and take what is ours?  Let's get it!

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#12 Walk On

#12

Posted
Posted
There is a very strange way that could have the Colts missing the playoffs right now.  So many teams would have to lose and win that i can't even get it up to come up on the NFL playoff machine on espn.com.  I saw earlier today that if the Jets lose tonight we have a 99.9973% chance of making the playoffs.  In other words there is a better chance the world ends on December 21st than there is that we miss the playoffs. 

 

UPDATE:

 

Found it!  In order for the Colts to miss the playoffs ALL of this has to happen.

 

Colts lose twice, Steelers beat the Bengals, Bengals beat the Ravens, Chargers beat the Jets, Raiders beat the Panthers, Chiefs beat the Broncos, Vikings beat the Texans, Jets beat the Bills, Bears beat the Lions, Jaguars beat the Titans, Patriots beat the Dolphins, and the Steelers beat the Browns.

 

It is still extremely important that win against KC or the Texans though and wrap up the five seed.  The difference in going to the AFC North Champion or probably New England is HUGE. 

 

Where did you find this? I'll take their word for it because I'm tired of thinking about it.  :)

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#12 Walk On

#12

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Posted
WNDE's facebook page.  I am taking it as their word too I am too tired to go run it and see if it's right.

 

Okay, I lied.  I did the math.  :)  This is right.  Our earlier strength of victory calculations were a bit off.  In SOV, 7 wins would have to be made up in the final two weeks for the Colts to not make it.  With 18 opponents playing, it's not impossible, but four are common, so it's highly, highly unlikely.  Something similar to this scenario would have to happen.

 

Win or lose, the Colts are already in. 

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Qwiz Practice Squad

Qwiz

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It is very likely that pittsburgh will win, which means we MUST win another game *or two. One would help, obviously we probably don't have a shot at the last game (week 17) because of JJ WATT and Foster will go for 181 on us, and if we play M. Moore, well you know, it will all end bad. But anyway, our only hope is to beat K.C. or hope for a pittsburgh loss, but that aint gonna happen. BIGBEN is * and he hasn't been out to the clubs in a while, so yea, he's ticked.

  haha

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subvet Walk On

subvet

Posted
Posted
Okay, I lied.  I did the math.  :)  This is right.  Our earlier strength of victory calculations were a bit off.  In SOV, 7 wins would have to be made up in the final two weeks for the Colts to not make it.  With 18 opponents playing, it's not impossible, but four are common, so it's highly, highly unlikely.  Something similar to this scenario would have to happen.

 

Win or lose, the Colts are already in. 

Then why does nfl.com and espn say the Colts need another win to get in?

Not arguing your math but the major outlets aren't saying it yet.

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#12 Walk On

#12

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Posted
Then why does nfl.com and espn say the Colts need another win to get in?

Not arguing your math but the major outlets aren't saying it yet.

Because it comes down to strength of victory, and long, improbable list of wins and losses would have to happen for the Colts to not make it.  They're not technically in, but essentially they are. 

 

I still have no idea why it was printed that a Bengals + Jets loss would get us in, especially considering the Bengals were playing an NFC team with a low SOV.

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GoColts8818 Ring of Honor

GoColts8818

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Posted
Because it comes down to strength of victory, and long, improbable list of wins and losses would have to happen for the Colts to not make it.  They're not technically in, but essentially they are. 

 

I still have no idea why it was printed that a Bengals + Jets loss would get us in, especially considering the Bengals were playing an NFC team with a low SOV.

Exactly I really think there is a better chance the world ends on Friday than there is of us missing the playoffs.

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