What are the chances that there are zero franchise QB's in the 2023 draft?

[Myles]

I'm feeling like it may be pretty high, maybe 45%.

By "franchise QB" I mean stays on a team for several years and is considered a top 12 QB in the league. 

[chad72]

A good chance, given the success of Alabama and OSU QBs in the draft, lol.

 

Anthony Richardson and Will Levis, if their interviews could check out, may have more upside with a good redshirt year. I am still leaning towards AR15 over Will Levis, personally.

 

You may want to check these:

 

 

 

 

 

Definitely a lot of Josh Allen / Mahomes in him. The true issue is slotting him since QBs are overdrafted.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Eventually you have to gamble and draft a QB. We tried it the other way and it didn't work with Wentz and Ryan. Eventhough the draft is a crapshoot when you have a top 4 pick you have to try. There were many in here that wanted us to take a QB last year and that QB draft class was bad. There were a few in here that wanted Willis. Willis won't be near the pro that young or Stroud will be IMO.

 

So to the people that don't want to draft a QB, when do we try? 2026, 2027? Forget about getting Caleb next year, he will go #1 and nobody will give that pick up.

[2006Coltsbestever]

I would take AR15 over Levis.

[BlackTiger]

We tried free agents, trades, and late picks.   None of them worked for long

 

We have to do something and have the 4th pick now

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, BlackTiger said:

We tried free agents, trades, and late picks.   None of them worked for long

 

We have to do something and have the 4th pick now

 

Young or Stroud is the way to go, JMO

AR15 is interesting.

[Korey]

We have to try to get someone, can't continue down this path. 

[sb41champs]

Hard to say at this point in the process!!

 

Look how many "busts" there have been in drafting a QB in the first round in the past couple of decades.

 

Many QBs simply don't "translate well" to the professional game and the pressure that comes with it.

 

That doesn't mean that the GMs don't do their "due diligence" - it just means that some players simply can't make the jump on to the "big stage".

 

[jaxjag]

I live about 1 hour from the University of Florida and have been a Gator fan my whole life. I have seen every game AR15 has played at Florida.  He would be a huge mistake for you guy's IMO. He is extremely raw even for a major college quarterback much less a professional one. He makes the highlight level play and follows it with a turnover. He is a turnover machine.

 

I will be happy to see you draft him, but I guarantee you will not be happy for long if you do. 

[RollerColt]

More often than not, college QBs bust. I do think at least 1 out of the 5-7 top prospects will end up being successful, that's the usual going rate. The trick is winning that lottery QB. Unfortunately the odds are kind of against us... 

[gspdx]

16 minutes ago, RollerColt said:

More often than not, college QBs bust. I do think at least 1 out of the 5-7 top prospects will end up being successful, that's the usual going rate. The trick is winning that lottery QB. Unfortunately the odds are kind of against us... 

 

Yep - the odds are not great.  And I think "being successful" is subjective.  The OP stated a top 12 QB in this league.  Personally I think teams need a top 10 QB to be real contenders.  So my requirement is even a bit more extreme. 

 

But if you don't try to get a guy you will never get one.  So we need to try something.

[RollerColt]

1 hour ago, gspdx said:

 

Yep - the odds are not great.  And I think "being successful" is subjective.  The OP stated a top 12 QB in this league.  Personally I think teams need a top 10 QB to be real contenders.  So my requirement is even a bit more extreme. 

 

But if you don't try to get a guy you will never get one.  So we need to try something.

We absolutely have to try and keep trying until we get it right. I just hope our luck is better than the Browns and Jets... 

[coltsva]

I think there are only a small number of franchise QB's, but the way I look at it is probably different than most. For me, it's "if a team had the first pick and there was an Andrew Luck type QB available, would they draft him or trade the pick?"

 

Chiefs/Mahomes - No

Bills/Allen - No

Bengals/Burrow - No

Eagles/Hurts - No

Jags/Lawrence - No

Chargers/Herbert - No 

 

There are a few others, such as Brady, Rodgers, Jackson & Stafford, who are in the "franchise QB" category, but age, injuries, or both, keep them on the outside right now. 

 

Sadly, 5 of the above, and 6 if you count Jackson, are in the AFC. Ugh!

 

 

 

 

[OLD FAN MAN]

On 1/10/2023 at 11:07 AM, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Eventually you have to gamble and draft a QB. We tried it the other way and it didn't work with Wentz and Ryan. Eventhough the draft is a crapshoot when you have a top 4 pick you have to try. There were many in here that wanted us to take a QB last year and that QB draft class was bad. There were a few in here that wanted Willis. Willis won't be near the pro that young or Stroud will be IMO.

 

So to the people that don't want to draft a QB, when do we try? 2026, 2027? Forget about getting Caleb next year, he will go #1 and nobody will give that pick up.

we will draft near the top for several seasons thank you ballard, imo take 1 or 2 qbs each season until ballard hits on one in the year 2075 lol

[csmopar]

On 1/10/2023 at 10:50 AM, Myles said:

I'm feeling like it may be pretty high, maybe 45%.

By "franchise QB" I mean stays on a team for several years and is considered a top 12 QB in the league. 

I’d double that. I’d say there’s a 90 percent chance that the QBs taken in the top 15 will not be with the team that drafted them by the end of year 3. 

[jaxjag]

On 1/11/2023 at 11:08 AM, RollerColt said:

We absolutely have to try and keep trying until we get it right. I just hope our luck is better than the Browns and Jets... 

Add the Jaguars to that list. We had been looking since the turn of the century...LOL.

[AwesomeAustin]

We should have drafted a real QB prospect the first draft after Luck retired. We would have been in the same spot we are now if it didn’t work.  We should draft a new QB every 2-3 years until we find a top 10 guy. If they are showing Kirk Cousins type potential you trade him with a year or two left on his rookie contract and try again. I know this last one will never happen bc this is a business and it’s better on the bottom line to be 11-6 and not a true contender than picking in the top 10 every 3 years. 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

I think the chances are low that this class won't have a Franchise QB.... in fact I wouldn't be surprised if there will be multiple ones.

I also think theres  a chance of a 'elite' QB emerging, and elite is what you usually need to win Championships.

[NewColtsFan]

There’s just no way to know.  Quarterback is the toughest position in sports to evaluate.  
 

Just look at Mahomes and Watson.  They went 10th and 12th in the 2017 draft.  If the teams had any idea how good both would be (especially Mahomes) they’d never have lasted as long as they did.   They’d have gone 1-2. 
 

Look at the 18 draft.   Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen have either underperformed or have busted. 
 

Look at the 21 draft.  Lawrence finally shows something after a year and a half.  Otherwise, it’s Wilson, Lance, Fields and Jones.   A couple might still pan out someday.   Might. 
 

There’s no way to really know.  If pressed and you want a number I’d say there's at least a 33% chance none of the top 3-4 will pan out. 

[PRnum1]

Levis = Jacob Eason

Young = Tua with injury history

Stroud OSU QB can't run a pro offense = Justin Fields

[csmopar]

On 1/10/2023 at 10:50 AM, Myles said:

I'm feeling like it may be pretty high, maybe 45%.

By "franchise QB" I mean stays on a team for several years and is considered a top 12 QB in the league. 

110% this class sucks for QBs and the ones at the top are overrated. My guess all along, there maybe be a hidden gem here but odds are, all of the top 4 QBs will Be benched or cut by year 4