If Nelson wants 20M a year…

[Solid84]

4 minutes ago, Myles said:

I don't know that there would be many/any teams willing to give up much for Nelson.  

It’s interesting he has no trade value because ‘he’s a guard’ but we still have to pay him $20m/year because ‘he’s the best guard’…

 

$20m/year is great to elite level LT money. A guard is never going to be worth that level of money. 

[DougDew]

6 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

It’s interesting he has no trade value because ‘he’s a guard’ but we still have to pay him $20m/year because ‘he’s the best guard’…

 

$20m/year is great to elite level LT money. A guard is never going to be worth that level of money. 

Yeah, I find that a bit contradictory.  I assume that a player who earns $20M per year is worth a 1st round pick?

 

You can talk position, but in the end, if a FS earned $20M/year and was 25 years old, wouldn't he be worth a 1st round pick?

 

Defo was young and earning (trade and sign) high bucks and fetched pick 13 for SF.

[Solid84]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yeah, I find that a bit contradictory.  I think many folks are struggling with it.   I assume that a player who earns $20M per year is worth a 1st round pick?

 

You can talk position, but in the end, if a FS earned $20M/year and was 25 years old, wouldn't he be worth a 1st round pick?

Yes, I agree. It’s just weird to me we have to pay him money we wouldn’t be able to get equal worth back in a trade. 

[stitches]

13 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Yeah, I find that a bit contradictory.  I assume that a player who earns $20M per year is worth a 1st round pick?

 

You can talk position, but in the end, if a FS earned $20M/year and was 25 years old, wouldn't he be worth a 1st round pick?

 

Defo was young and earning (trade and sign) high bucks and fetched pick 13 for SF.

Yeah, I don't get that. If you are willing to pay 20M for a player, a 1st round pick is the bare minimum you should be taking in return for him. Those are the elites of the league that get to that level of pay. Yes, he's "just a guard", but he's quite possibly the best guard of this generation and a surefire future HoFer, health permitting. That's why I was speculating earlier about what an offer for Q should look for if we want to trade him - mid-1st + mid-2nd should be the price and IMO there will be multiple GMs in the league willing to pay that price to the point that if we could orchestrate a bidding war we might actually get 2 1sts. This league still has plenty of "establish the run" and "build from the inside" execs. Hell, our GM is one of those too... 

[buccolts]

It's only weird to THINK we'd HAVE TO pay him $20m/.

Thankfully, they won't HAVE TO. They MAY, but you'd think they'd then believe it's worth it.

I'm fine with whatever we end up doing with him, but even more fine if we keep him. The money is someone else's problem, and we haven't been spendthrifts, so I'm not worried.

[masterlock]

I must be missing something. What does "lower the contract to $16M a year" in terms of potential scenarios? Are you saying, offer him a new contract that pays him $16M/year instead of $20M/year, or else let him walk? If so, then I would have to ask, what if he'd agree to $17M/year?

[DougDew]

5 minutes ago, masterlock said:

I must be missing something. What does "lower the contract to $16M a year" in terms of potential scenarios? Are you saying, offer him a new contract that pays him $16M/year instead of $20M/year, or else let him walk? If so, then I would have to ask, what if he'd agree to $17M/year?

I think the price of Kelly is about tops for an interior olineman.

[Solid84]

11 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think the price of Kelly is about tops for an interior olineman.

The highest paid guards currently are Joel Bitonio (Browns) and Joe Thuney (Chiefs) who both are getting $16m/year. 
 

Closest to $20m is LT Ronnie Stanley (Ravens) at $19.75m. 
 

Only 3 olinemen are paid more than that. All 3 are LTs. Trent William $23.1m (49’ers), David Bakhtiari $23m (Packers) and Laremy Tunsil $22m (Texans). 
 

I don’t really remember where the whole $20m started, but it seems like too much of a jump from the other top Guards? We’re basically paying him elite level LT money. 

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

Yeah, I find that a bit contradictory.  I assume that a player who earns $20M per year is worth a 1st round pick?

 

You can talk position, but in the end, if a FS earned $20M/year and was 25 years old, wouldn't he be worth a 1st round pick?

 

Defo was young and earning (trade and sign) high bucks and fetched pick 13 for SF.

 

Jamal Adams netted TWO 1st round picks (that were supposed to be late 1st rounders). DeFo netted the #13 pick.

 

So there is definitely a market for Q.

[shasta519]

36 minutes ago, masterlock said:

I must be missing something. What does "lower the contract to $16M a year" in terms of potential scenarios? Are you saying, offer him a new contract that pays him $16M/year instead of $20M/year, or else let him walk? If so, then I would have to ask, what if he'd agree to $17M/year?

 

Yeah...the question should be allocate $16-20M AAV to him (whatever the number) OR trade him for draft capital and allocate that cap space elsewhere.

 

If you are willing to trade him because he wants $1-4M more than your offer...then you probably are trading him anyways.

[DougDew]

24 minutes ago, shasta519 said:

 

Yeah...the question should be allocate $16-20M AAV to him (whatever the number) OR trade him for draft capital and allocate that cap space elsewhere.

 

If you are willing to trade him because he wants $1-4M more than your offer...then you probably are trading him anyways.

$4M is 25% higher than the next highest paid G.   And KC probably paid Thuney that price because that was their immediate key to another SB.  Not really normal market demand.

[Nickster]

2 hours ago, stitches said:

Yeah, I don't get that. If you are willing to pay 20M for a player, a 1st round pick is the bare minimum you should be taking in return for him. Those are the elites of the league that get to that level of pay. Yes, he's "just a guard", but he's quite possibly the best guard of this generation and a surefire future HoFer, health permitting. That's why I was speculating earlier about what an offer for Q should look for if we want to trade him - mid-1st + mid-2nd should be the price and IMO there will be multiple GMs in the league willing to pay that price to the point that if we could orchestrate a bidding war we might actually get 2 1sts. This league still has plenty of "establish the run" and "build from the inside" execs. Hell, our GM is one of those too... 

If we could get 2 firsts for Nelson, it would be asinine not to.  I really would like to know how other GMs value these players of ours. 

[DougDew]

11 minutes ago, Nickster said:

If we could get 2 firsts for Nelson, it would be asinine not to.  I really would like to know how other GMs value these players of ours. 

A big part of why I think that we should sign him is because we would never recoup our initial investment.  With the publicity situation and the fact that he is a good player, we're kind of stuck with him.  Yes, it would be asinine not to accept 2 1sts.

 

Suck it up, sign him, and hope that the salary cap continues to go up.

[Nickster]

3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

A big part of why I think that we should sign him is because we would never recoup our initial investment.  With the publicity situation and the fact that he is a good player, we're kind of stuck with him.  Yes, it would be asinine not to accept 2 1sts.

 

Suck it up, sign him, and hope that the salary cap continues to go up.

Yeah, probably, but I think it just delays what seems to me to be an inevitable rebuild.  I guess they aren't going to do that, but they should IMO.  

[stitches]

16 minutes ago, Nickster said:

If we could get 2 firsts for Nelson, it would be asinine not to.  I really would like to know how other GMs value these players of ours. 

I think 2 is kind of pushing it, but 1 and 2 or 3 you probably can find a team to give you that tomorrow for Q. There seems to be a lot of GMs who value that type of talent very highly and he's the best of the best of talents at the position.  Hell, by the end of it he might be the best ever. He certainly is on his way to getting there when it comes to individual accolades. 

[DougDew]

2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

Yeah, probably, but I think it just delays what seems to me to be an inevitable rebuild.  I guess they aren't going to do that, but they should IMO.  

It depends on how long Irsay puts up with going 9-8, 10-7, 8-9.

[DougDew]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

I think 2 is kind of pushing it, but 1 and 2 or 3 you probably can find a team to give you that tomorrow for Q. There seems to be a lot of GMs who value that type of talent very highly and he's the best of the best of talents at the position.  Hell, by the end of it he might be the best ever. He certainly is on his way to getting there when it comes to individual accolades. 

I'd take two 2nds.   You can find very good Gs in the 2nd.  I'd gladly trade the best all time G for 2 very good ones.

[Coltsfan98]

I just don't see a guard being worth $20 million. If he wants to move to LT sure but we need a LT way more then a $20M guard.

[shasta519]

37 minutes ago, DougDew said:

A big part of why I think that we should sign him is because we would never recoup our initial investment.  With the publicity situation and the fact that he is a good player, we're kind of stuck with him.  Yes, it would be asinine not to accept 2 1sts.

 

Suck it up, sign him, and hope that the salary cap continues to go up.

 

But they got 4 years of an All-Pro G at a $6M AAV, which is about $8-10M less than the best at the position. They have likely recouped what they can in surplus value from the initial investment. And once they start paying that same player $12-14M more per year (more than any other at the position)...it seems like they would be losing some of that return. Plus, there's also now injury issues to consider as well. 

 

Getting a couple of really good picks would be a shrewd move, but I don't think Ballard would go for it.

[masterlock]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

I think the price of Kelly is about tops for an interior olineman.

Well, if they don't re-sign him, then I have to ask, does his replacement elevate the level of play of those around him like Nelson does? If not, then even though you've saved money on one particular position, the ratio of pay-to-performance of the line as a whole suffers. Nelson isn't just another link in the chain--he's the anchor. As for the $4M in savings, you'd better be sure you spend it wisely, because it does no good to save $4M on one player if you squander it on another. And my last thought would be that the cap is always going up. So $20M for guard might seem excessive now, but what about 2, 3 or 4 years from now?

[DougDew]

9 minutes ago, masterlock said:

Well, if they don't re-sign him, then I have to ask, does his replacement elevate the level of play of those around him like Nelson does? If not, then even though you've saved money on one particular position, the ratio of pay-to-performance of the line as a whole suffers. Nelson isn't just another link in the chain--he's the anchor. As for the $4M in savings, you'd better be sure you spend it wisely, because it does no good to save $4M on one player if you squander it on another. And my last thought would be that the cap is always going up. So $20M for guard might seem excessive now, but what about 2, 3 or 4 years from now?

He doesn't elevate the players around him.  That's just been the spin since he got here.

 

Kelly has had two poor years in a row.  AC was always good.  Davenport and LeRaven Clark stunk just as bad playing next to Nelson.  Pryor did better than Fisher, and they both played next to Nelson. 

 

The reason the oline improved the day we drafted Nelson was because we also added Braden Smith and Glowinski at the same time.    We added three better players out of the five than what we had.  Not just Nelson.

 

But I'm not advocating trading him or letting him walk, or signing him for that matter.  I'm just trying to keep the variables understood for myself.

 

I think 3 or 4 years from now $20M won't seem excessive, if he is the same player or better.

[Fluke_33]

If this guy my daughter is watching on YouTube earns 5.38m a year for playing video games I think Nelson making 20m is fair. 

[EastStreet]

16 hours ago, Nickster said:

That’s a pretty sobering though huh?

 

Depressing. 

I really bought into the whole "our D revolves around the 3T" garbage lol.... 

Can't remember if that was Ballard or Flus that sold us on that.

Thought we'd take things to another level with Defo, Autry, and Houston....... Nope.

And then to watch Autry go kill it this year, while we took multiple steps back..... ughhh.

[EastStreet]

15 hours ago, Nickster said:

We run our share of gap.

 

What advantages do you envision from running less zone?  I don’t think we have an issue with run blocking personally.  I’d be interested what you think a change in scheme would accomplish.

 

I know we run both, but I think the overwhelming majority is zone. Saw a stat via tweet somewhere that showed 2018-2020 %s after the 2020 season. I'll try to find it. 

 

And it felt like we really would have benefited from more power/gap in a few specific games as DLs will having too much success vs our zone. The first two games especially, and Baltimore. Those three were really frustrating. So was LVR IIRC.

[EastStreet]

16 hours ago, Nickster said:

We run our share of gap.

 

What advantages do you envision from running less zone?  I don’t think we have an issue with run blocking personally.  I’d be interested what you think a change in scheme would accomplish.

 

 

Really depends on the DL. And also who (on the OL) we're running over.

IMO, our entire interior OL is better run blocking when allowed to pin their ears back and push. Smith is pretty decent in both.

Fish was just super bad at times in zone. IIRC, or success rate (over average) on the L edge was by far our worst gap. 

[NewColtsFan]

17 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

Depressing. 

I really bought into the whole "our D revolves around the 3T" garbage lol.... 

Can't remember if that was Ballard or Flus that sold us on that.

Thought we'd take things to another level with Defo, Autry, and Houston....... Nope.

And then to watch Autry go kill it this year, while we took multiple steps back..... ughhh.

The man who said 3T is the key to the defense we will run is Chris Ballard.   He said it in early 2018 when the old coaching staff was leaving and the new staff was coming in. 

[Bert Johns]

20 million a year nope. He's a nice piece of the line but when has a guard scored touch downs. Don't get me wrong i love Q but guards can't eat up that much of your salary cap not in today's nfl. This is a passing league. 

[EastStreet]

10 hours ago, Aaron86 said:

I honestly think we are over spending on players at the wrong positions. I know Nelson is probably going to get 20+  and I really dont know how they will structure it. But dang we are tied up in 3 or 4  players right now that have really not put us in the postion we want to be. Starting with Wentz. I just want to see some fire out of our players. Every game should be played like the Patriots game with attitude and fire. 

 

I do agree we've lacked fire in several games.. 

Jax was super duper flat. 

 

I don't disagree with paying 3T though. I think our scheme has wasted a talent like Defo. Could he be slightly overrated. Maybe. But there's absolutely no reason for our DL not to be better in 2020. We know Defo is good. We just saw Autry have a terrific year. We just saw Houston, who is yet another year older, do pretty well. We had good depth that year too, and are now relying on that depth as starters... 

 

I do share concerns over paying LG so much. Building your OL around a LG and paying him 20M or more is probably not the blue print most teams want to follow. But the cow is already out of the barn, and Q has absolutely been a beast and an anchor. 

 

I don't really have a problem overall paying the "positions" that we are paying. I do think we've overpaid a few based on talent and production though. I thought Kelly was overpaid when we made him the highest paid C.... Still feel that way. If he were a top 3 guy, wouldn't feel so bad, but he's not. I felt Grover was slightly overpaid, and still feel the same. There's simply no justification to make him top 15 paid DT (Defo is #2).... So we have two top 15 iDL starters, yet our DL has been mediocre at best. Wentz's contract would have been fine had he performed down the stretch better. While I'm sold on him at all as the future, he did lack some basic things (OL, WRs, scheme) that would make him more successful. 

[Hawkeyecolt]

7 hours ago, DougDew said:

$4M is 25% higher than the next highest paid G.   And KC probably paid Thuney that price because that was their immediate key to another SB.  Not really normal market demand.

Scherff makes $18 million for WFT

[Aaron86]

19 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I do agree we've lacked fire in several games.. 

Jax was super duper flat. 

 

I don't disagree with paying 3T though. I think our scheme has wasted a talent like Defo. Could he be slightly overrated. Maybe. But there's absolutely no reason for our DL not to be better in 2020. We know Defo is good. We just saw Autry have a terrific year. We just saw Houston, who is yet another year older, do pretty well. We had good depth that year too, and are now relying on that depth as starters... 

 

I do share concerns over paying LG so much. Building your OL around a LG and paying him 20M or more is probably not the blue print most teams want to follow. But the cow is already out of the barn, and Q has absolutely been a beast and an anchor. 

 

I don't really have a problem overall paying the "positions" that we are paying. I do think we've overpaid a few based on talent and production though. I thought Kelly was overpaid when we made him the highest paid C.... Still feel that way. If he were a top 3 guy, wouldn't feel so bad, but he's not. I felt Grover was slightly overpaid, and still feel the same. There's simply no justification to make him top 15 paid DT (Defo is #2).... So we have two top 15 iDL starters, yet our DL has been mediocre at best. Wentz's contract would have been fine had he performed down the stretch better. While I'm sold on him at all as the future, he did lack some basic things (OL, WRs, scheme) that would make him more successful. 

 

I could not agree more!

 

I am still mad about how we lost to the raiders and Jags. I honestly think the Colts had a shot and blew it. I cannot figure out for the life of me what happened in those games, but man did they look bad. They looked worse to me then the beginning of the season losses.

 

And this leads me to why I dont want to pay players without fire or grit.

 

This team needs to do some soul searching because the window is about to slam shut.  

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

The man who said 3T is the key to the defense we will run is Chris Ballard.   He said it in early 2018 when the old coaching staff was leaving and the new staff was coming in. 

Thank you. I was not sure. I think Flus inferred the same around the announcement of Defo joining us too. 

[Maniac53]

55 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

I do agree we've lacked fire in several games.. 

Jax was super duper flat. 

 

I don't disagree with paying 3T though. I think our scheme has wasted a talent like Defo. Could he be slightly overrated. Maybe. But there's absolutely no reason for our DL not to be better in 2020. We know Defo is good. We just saw Autry have a terrific year. We just saw Houston, who is yet another year older, do pretty well. We had good depth that year too, and are now relying on that depth as starters... 

 

I do share concerns over paying LG so much. Building your OL around a LG and paying him 20M or more is probably not the blue print most teams want to follow. But the cow is already out of the barn, and Q has absolutely been a beast and an anchor. 

 

I don't really have a problem overall paying the "positions" that we are paying. I do think we've overpaid a few based on talent and production though. I thought Kelly was overpaid when we made him the highest paid C.... Still feel that way. If he were a top 3 guy, wouldn't feel so bad, but he's not. I felt Grover was slightly overpaid, and still feel the same. There's simply no justification to make him top 15 paid DT (Defo is #2).... So we have two top 15 iDL starters, yet our DL has been mediocre at best. Wentz's contract would have been fine had he performed down the stretch better. While I'm sold on him at all as the future, he did lack some basic things (OL, WRs, scheme) that would make him more successful. 

It's my opinion that Ballard puts too much money in the interior OL and DL. Other teams are doing pretty good without over paying them positions. Cause they have money put in their weapons that score TDs. I don't think them OL and DL men are going to put up that many points on the board. I'm saying they are not important JMO

[NewColtsFan]

8 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

Thank you. I was not sure. I think Flus inferred the same around the announcement of Defo joining us too. 

It was a strange time here…  Ballard not only pointed to the 3T as the key up front, but also said that the WILL was the key linebacker spot….   And that cornerback was NOT a position where you needed to spend premium picks to have a good defense.   He pointed to Seattle and Carolina that had very good defenses using mid and late round zone corners.   
 

The board here was BUZZING!   All this was hotly debated.  Seriously.   Most of us were more than a little shell shocked from the crazy Grigson years.   It was hard to process.  
 

So a year later, when we spent the 34th pick on Rock, most didn’t see that coming.  What happened to corner not needing a premium pick?  
 

Will be interesting to see if a new DC from outside the building influences how we draft?   

[EastStreet]

44 minutes ago, Aaron86 said:

 

I could not agree more!

 

I am still mad about how we lost to the raiders and Jags. I honestly think the Colts had a shot and blew it. I cannot figure out for the life of me what happened in those games, but man did they look bad. They looked worse to me then the beginning of the season losses.

 

And this leads me to why I dont want to pay players without fire or grit.

 

This team needs to do some soul searching because the window is about to slam shut.  

 

The last two games were missed opportunities. 

Some of the collapses (like Baltimore and TN) were missed opportunities. 

 

Overall, I think we had the talent to win 4 more games. You have to ask why there was no fire or the fire went out....

Conservative play calling on D, and conservative/bad play calling on O were the culprits IMO...

Sometimes you douse the fire with conservative calls and head scratching game plans....

[smittywerb]

Move him to LT

[EastStreet]

27 minutes ago, Maniac53 said:

It's my opinion that Ballard puts too much money in the interior OL and DL. Other teams are doing pretty good without over paying them positions. Cause they have money put in their weapons that score TDs. I don't think them OL and DL men are going to put up that many points on the board. I'm saying they are not important JMO

 

I agree the interiors on both sides are over paid in general. 

The only thing I can see happening (at this point) to correct that is to trade Kelly and start Pinter. 

But overall, I'm OK with Q given his performance in 4 years. But something has to give in other places to offset that spend. 

We absolutely need more production out of the iDL, but just not sure what the answer is there beside scheme change/tweak. 

[EastStreet]

27 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

It was a strange time here…  Ballard not only pointed to the 3T as the key up front, but also said that the WILL was the key linebacker spot….   And that cornerback was NOT a position where you needed to spend premium picks to have a good defense.   He pointed to Seattle and Carolina that had very good defenses using mid and late round zone corners.   
 

The board here was BUZZING!   All this was hotly debated.  Seriously.   Most of us were more than a little shell shocked from the crazy Grigson years.   It was hard to process.  
 

So a year later, when we spent the 34th pick on Rock, most didn’t see that coming.  What happened to corner not needing a premium pick?  
 

Will be interesting to see if a new DC from outside the building influences how we draft?   

 

Yup. I recall that. Flus said some things that contradicted that a bit too. 

Overall, I agree 3Ts are critical to 4-3s, and WILL is critical, especially if playing a lot 4-2-5 which we do. 

Not going to pretend to understand the CB stuff lol.

All I know is that whatever the strategy is on the DL... it's not panning out.

Aside from TOs, the D is just mediocre.

Atrocious in passing TDs allowed, and poor in sacks and pressures. You can chicken/egg the secondary vs DL debate, but when both have holes, hard to blame much except scheme. 

[Aaron86]

2 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

The last two games were missed opportunities. 

Some of the collapses (like Baltimore and TN) were missed opportunities. 

 

Overall, I think we had the talent to win 4 more games. You have to ask why there was no fire or the fire went out....

Conservative play calling on D, and conservative/bad play calling on O were the culprits IMO...

Sometimes you douse the fire with conservative calls and head scratching game plans....

Yep. We literally wet the bed on those last two games. But like you said we had a chance earlier in the year to seal up the division and just could not do it.

[ShuteAt168]

On 1/31/2022 at 11:18 AM, Four2itus said:

"Come in here, represent the logo with respect and dignity, play your * off, and we'll take care of you".

 

No, that is not a direct quote, but I don't think it's far from reality. So.....what has he not done from the above listed expectations?

 

 

Let a transformational player go for 4 mil....because of his pay per position?

 

Honest question not being snarky. I’ve seen two posters call Q “transformational.” How so? Has he transformed the way OGs in the NFL play the position? Has he transformed our team? I don’t think so on either. If you’re saying he’s transformed our line, I mean I guess, but that seems like an odd way to use the word and given the line’s late-season collapse…I don’t know, I think that word “transformational” is being thrown around and I don’t understand. He’s an All Pro and a great player, to be sure. 

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, Aaron86 said:

Yep. We literally wet the bed on those last two games. But like you said we had a chance earlier in the year to seal up the division and just could not do it.

In reality, we were a couple of ifs and butts (head scratchers and collapses) away from being a number 1 seed.

It's just depressing to think about lol...