The reality of the Colts 2021 draft

[gspdx]

2 hours ago, BlackTiger said:

I don't think they did enough to be a contender.  I guess the OP has lower goals than I do

 

Free agency isnt over, but the good ones are gone

 

Yes - the good and expensive FAs are gone.  Which doesn't mean signing one of them would have made us a contender if we aren't already.

[CR91]

12 hours ago, jskinnz said:

 And they haven’t had clear needs in previous drafts?

 

This obvious?

[CR91]

7 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

It doesn't mean he will force it with the 1st pick

 

No, but you know atleast what direction their going. If on Thursday, we don't draft a T, edge, or trade down, I would be shocked

[BlackTiger]

54 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

 

I would hazard an educated guess that the OP does not have lower goals than you. 

This team isn't a contender, they must not care.

 

I don't think they did enough.  Free agency isn't as bad as people seem to think.  The bucs and eagles spent a lot the years They won

[BlackTiger]

14 minutes ago, gspdx said:

Yes - the good and expensive FAs are gone.  Which doesn't mean signing one of them would have made us a contender if we aren't already.

They could have signed an edge.  I think the ceiling is limited with the pass rush we have now

 

I think that might hold the team back even if some other things go our way.  Hell it held them back last year against good teams, and Houston is gone

[LiveAndLetAddai]

1 hour ago, BlackTiger said:

They could have signed an edge.  I think the ceiling is limited with the pass rush we have now

 

I think that might hold the team back even if some other things go our way.  Hell it held them back last year against good teams, and Houston is gone

 Has Houston signed with anyone?

[Colt.45]

10 hours ago, Myles said:

I think the BPA term is used to much.    Most GM's will draft the BPA for a "need" the team has.   Every team has several needs.   The Colts could use:

TE, LT, DE, CB and a few other spots.  If the best player available was a RB, the Colts would not draft him.  

 

Another thing to keep in mind is this: Fans typically look at the roster from last year's perspective. "oh if we had slightly more pass rush, we'd have beat the Bills" "If we had a QB who could chuck it deep, we'd have beat the Chiefs" etc etc. The GM has to look at it from a much broader, deeper perspective. For him, NEEd isn't simply only about the holes from last year. His definition of need could be drafting a TE because in 2022, his cupboard is bare. It could be understanding that his young DE talents need room to develop and there isn't a 5 star talent in the draft so adding another body in the 1st or 2nd round to the room doesn't necessarily improve what he has. 

It could be any number of factors.

BPA and need are not simply about what the team looked like last year.

[BlackTiger]

35 minutes ago, WentzinRome said:

 Has Houston signed with anyone?

Nope, you sure he's coming back?

[Colt.45]

9 hours ago, Indyfan4life said:

Is it the 29th yet? 

 

Yes. Did you fall asleep? Want me to tell you what happened?

[BlackTiger]

9 minutes ago, Colt.45 said:

 

Another thing to keep in mind is this: Fans typically look at the roster from last year's perspective. "oh if we had slightly more pass rush, we'd have beat the Bills" "If we had a QB who could chuck it deep, we'd have beat the Chiefs" etc etc. The GM has to look at it from a much broader, deeper perspective. For him, NEEd isn't simply only about the holes from last year. His definition of need could be drafting a TE because in 2022, his cupboard is bare. It could be understanding that his young DE talents need room to develop and there isn't a 5 star talent in the draft so adding another body in the 1st or 2nd round to the room doesn't necessarily improve what he has. 

It could be any number of factors.

BPA and need are not simply about what the team looked like last year.

I do think it's about beating the good teams in AFC or at least it should be.  They beat weak opponents and had trouble with AFC playoff teams.  It wasn't just once or twice, it was a trend.

 

I don't see how they have gotten better

[LiveAndLetAddai]

6 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

Nope, you sure he's coming back?

Not at all, are you so sure he isn't?  

[jvan1973]

3 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

No, but you know atleast what direction their going. If on Thursday, we don't draft a T, edge, or trade down, I would be shocked

What if a guy Ballard thinks is a difference maker at cb is there and he is rated far above LT or EDGE.   What do you think he does?

[CR91]

5 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

What if a guy Ballard thinks is a difference maker at cb is there and he is rated far above LT or EDGE.   What do you think he does?

 

Could happen, however you're then putting yourself in a bind trying to fill T and Edge

[Colt.45]

12 hours ago, BlackTiger said:

I do think it's about beating the good teams in AFC or at least it should be.  They beat weak opponents and had trouble with AFC playoff teams.  It wasn't just once or twice, it was a trend.

 

I don't see how they have gotten better

 

Better?  Well, the primary bet is that Wentz > Rivers. 

However that's NOW, in April, before the draft.

 

Let's see what the draft brings. Let's see what roster cuts bring. Let's see late free agency brings. Heck, lets see the development of the young core. Is this team not a better team if Pittman can play 16 games performing like he did v Buffalo? If that's the only thing that changes from last year, isnt this instantly a better team? I expect Taylor to be >>> last year's version.

The bet on Turay and the young DEs isnt THAT crazy either.

 

I see that they've lost some pieces who were key last year, but i also see they've brought in a QB who could go either way, and have a young core who have not hit their ceilings. Essentially, i can't proclaim they are worse or better. I know the young get better, and i know there's still plenty of time given how this GM traditionally operates.

[BlackTiger]

14 hours ago, WentzinRome said:

Not at all, are you so sure he isn't?  

We can talk about that if it happens.  I'm talking about where they are today

[LiveAndLetAddai]

1 minute ago, BlackTiger said:

We can talk about that if it happens.  I'm talking about where they are today

Certainly, but your original post had him gone when there was still a possibility of a return.  I hope he does return as the Colts can't rely on Turay being healthy and Banogu stepping up, as he seemed to regress last season.  I did like that Lewis seemed to show some promise though on the strong side.

[Les Poulains]

The very obvious problem with all this is if we have to play Tevi or Davenport for any extended period, whether it's because the tackle we draft isn't yet pro ready, or for whatever reason, Ballard will look bad. He just will. It's one thing to say "pick the BPA", it's another thing to delude yourself and say we don't still have a massive hole on the roster at one of the most important positions in the sport. 

 

We simply have not adequately filled the LT spot yet in FA and no matter how much you want to talk about not overpaying and looking for value, we now have to hit on a guy in the draft or we're playing a minus at the position or moving someone around on the Oline. 

[compuls1v3]

On 4/23/2021 at 6:00 PM, BlackTiger said:

I do think it's about beating the good teams in AFC or at least it should be.  They beat weak opponents and had trouble with AFC playoff teams.  It wasn't just once or twice, it was a trend.

 

I don't see how they have gotten better

You say "they".  Are you not a Colts fan?

[GoColts8818]

On 4/23/2021 at 8:57 PM, CR91 said:

 

Could happen, however you're then putting yourself in a bind trying to fill T and Edge

Yes and no.  At end going back to last year at the season end he said they need Banogu and Turey to step up.  It could be he’s going to give them a make or break year.  If it works out he will look like a genius.  If it fails people are going to call for his job.  
 

At tackle it’s bit more murky.  He could have faith in the guys he signed or is willing to move Nelson out to left tackle even if it’s not the first choice and have one of the guys he signed or Hunt or Pinter play left guard.  Again if it works he will be genius if it doesn’t work people will call for his job.  
 

Again, GMs tend to look at players from a perspective of what can you do for me while fans tend to look at it from a what have you done perspective.  I agree with their lack of performance so far rolling the dice with all of the guys listed about other than Nelson looks like a real gamble but that’s why Ballard get paid the big bucks for and frankly more or his gambles have worked out than not which tells me he’s good at seeing what a player can do.  
 

He’s also not going to box himself into taking a tackle or end just because people, and maybe even him, feel they are the biggest needs.  IE if the best end or tackle is 35 on his board and say the WR Smith is there and say he’s 10th in the Colts board he’s going to take Smith.  For the record that’s just an example I threw out because people have been talking about Smith.  I fully don’t expect him to be there.  
 

Remember last year when people on draft night people were complaining about trading up for and taking another running back in Taylor because the Colts didn’t need a running back?  How good did it turn out that they did take Taylor?  Just because a position looks deep now doesn’t mean it’s going to be deep once the season starts.  That’s why good teams almost always go BPA.  Yes there are certain limits on that like if you have Peyton Manning you don’t draft another QB in round one even if he’s the best player on your board but the vast majority of the time you take the highest rated player on your board regardless of position when you pick, especially outside of the top 10 and you aren’t hunting a QB.

[craigerb]

On 4/23/2021 at 6:01 AM, Myles said:

Most GM's will draft the BPA for a "need" the team has. 

You don't get the distinction between BPA and need.

[GoColts8818]

38 minutes ago, craigerb said:

You don't get the distinction between BPA and need.

His point is people take it too literal.  It’s a bit of gray rather than strict black and white.  Like the example I used before it didn’t matter if a QB was the best player on the Colts board in the first round when they had Peyton Manning they weren’t taking a QB in the first round even if he was the BPA and Polian swore by BPA.  He would have moved to the next BPA on his board that wasn’t a QB or looked to trade back.  
 

Even then the board is a guide.  Dungy has told the story of how he had to talk Polian into draft Freeney and Polian talked Dungy into Sanders.  So clearly the didn’t just go well the board says Freeney the next best guy take him they were at least willing to entertain something else there and not just strict black and white with BPA.  Often times it’s BPA that you feel fills a need.  
 

When teams are saying BPA what they are really saying is if you have the 21st pick you don’t take the 40th best player on your board just because he’s the highest rated tackle left on your board and you need a tackle.  Realistically you are probably looking at a handful of guys who grade out around 21 and pick one.  Of course if say a guy you had rated 10th on your board or something has fallen then yes you take him and move on.  If it’s too close to call, you just have a sweet heart offer, or there isn’t a guy within a few spots of 21 left on your board you move back.  
 

So like most things in life it’s complicated and it’s just easier to say BPA or don’t reach to sum it up faster than explain the whole process.  

[CR91]

16 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

Yes and no.  At end going back to last year at the season end he said they need Banogu and Turey to step up.  It could be he’s going to give them a make or break year.  If it works out he will look like a genius.  If it fails people are going to call for his job.  
 

At tackle it’s bit more murky.  He could have faith in the guys he signed or is willing to move Nelson out to left tackle even if it’s not the first choice and have one of the guys he signed or Hunt or Pinter play left guard.  Again if it works he will be genius if it doesn’t work people will call for his job.  
 

Again, GMs tend to look at players from a perspective of what can you do for me while fans tend to look at it from a what have you done perspective.  I agree with their lack of performance so far rolling the dice with all of the guys listed about other than Nelson looks like a real gamble but that’s why Ballard get paid the big bucks for and frankly more or his gambles have worked out than not which tells me he’s good at seeing what a player can do.  
 

He’s also not going to box himself into taking a tackle or end just because people, and maybe even him, feel they are the biggest needs.  IE if the best end or tackle is 35 on his board and say the WR Smith is there and say he’s 10th in the Colts board he’s going to take Smith.  For the record that’s just an example I threw out because people have been talking about Smith.  I fully don’t expect him to be there.  
 

Remember last year when people on draft night people were complaining about trading up for and taking another running back in Taylor because the Colts didn’t need a running back?  How good did it turn out that they did take Taylor?  Just because a position looks deep now doesn’t mean it’s going to be deep once the season starts.  That’s why good teams almost always go BPA.  Yes there are certain limits on that like if you have Peyton Manning you don’t draft another QB in round one even if he’s the best player on your board but the vast majority of the time you take the highest rated player on your board regardless of position when you pick, especially outside of the top 10 and you aren’t hunting a QB.

 

The Taylor pick though was after we took Pittman which was the biggest need going into the draft. All I'm saying is, Ballard can play it as close to the vest as he wants, but at the end of the day T and Edge are the biggest needs and there is no way getting around that fact.

[GoColts8818]

9 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

The Taylor pick though was after we took Pittman which was the biggest need going into the draft. All I'm saying is, Ballard can play it as close to the vest as he wants, but at the end of the day T and Edge are the biggest needs and there is no way getting around that fact.

I don’t disagree with that but Irsay was at least hinting that CB is in that conversation as well.  Maybe that’s just draft talk so who knows.  Regardless you can’t let need dictate what you do in the draft.  Not saying the Colts shouldnt grab a tackle or end if one is there, they should and I suspect they will,  but again if a guy like Smith (again just using him as an example not because I think he will) you draft him regardless of need.  There is no position on the Colts roster that couldn’t use another good player other than MAYBE running back.  Yes there are positions that need one more than others but they can use good players anywhere and in the NFL you will probably need them.

[CR91]

12 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I don’t disagree with that but Irsay was at least hinting that CB is in that conversation as well.  Maybe that’s just draft talk so who knows.  Regardless you can’t let need dictate what you do in the draft.  Not saying the Colts shouldnt grab a tackle or end if one is there, they should and I suspect they will,  but again if a guy like Smith (again just using him as an example not because I think he will) you draft him regardless of need.  There is no position on the Colts roster that couldn’t use another good player other than MAYBE running back.  Yes there are positions that need one more than others but they can use good players anywhere and in the NFL you will probably need them.

 

I just don't wanna be stuck in the sane situation as last year where we didn't address T depth for example and then we're scraping for a solution half way through the season.

[NewColtsFan]

4 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

I just don't wanna be stuck in the sane situation as last year where we didn't address T depth for example and then we're scraping for a solution half way through the season.

Sorry, but you’ve conflated two separate issues.    Starting tackle and better quality depth, which you say you’re worried about. 
 

We’ve already addressed the better quality depth at tackle with Tevi and Davenport.   I don’t think our depth is going to get better than this.   Odds are, we’re not going to sign Villanueva or Okung or Fisher to be starters or backups, which I doubt they’d want anyway. 
 

Now, we have to draft our future starting tackle and find out how good can he be as a rookie?   He may struggle, but that’s to be expected.   
 

I’d like to think we’ll be ok, but much depends on how fast the rookie can get up to speed. 

[Myles]

14 hours ago, craigerb said:

You don't get the distinction between BPA and need.

Sure I do but the BPA term is used way too literal.  The Colts can take the BPA with any of their picks but it won't be a RB even if he is the best player available.   Nearly any other position they may take BPA.  

[CR91]

8 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Sorry, but you’ve conflated two separate issues.    Starting tackle and better quality depth, which you say you’re worried about. 
 

We’ve already addressed the better quality depth at tackle with Tevi and Davenport.   I don’t think our depth is going to get better than this.   Odds are, we’re not going to sign Villanueva or Okung or Fisher to be starters or backups, which I doubt they’d want anyway. 
 

Now, we have to draft our future starting tackle and find out how good can he be as a rookie?   He may struggle, but that’s to be expected.   
 

I’d like to think we’ll be ok, but much depends on how fast the rookie can get up to speed. 

 

Yes, but not having the quality starter anymore is my point. If we don't address it, it's the same as not addressing depth.

[NewColtsFan]

11 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Yes, but not having the quality starter anymore is my point. If we don't address it, it's the same as not addressing depth.

“If we don’t address it...”.  
 

Why would you even write such a sentence?

 

Ballard just talked about it Friday.  48 hours ago.   Irsay has talked about it.   Why would you think we wouldn’t address it?

 

Now, the rookie is going to struggle as most rookie LT’s do, but growing pains at LT are the norm, not the exception. 
 

But we ARE going to address it.   Whether we get it right or not we likely won’t know until after the rookie season. 

[CR91]

Just now, NewColtsFan said:

“If we don’t address it...”.  
 

Why would you even write such a sentence?

 

Ballard just talked about it Friday.  48 hours ago.   Irsay has talked about it.   Why would you think we wouldn’t address it?

 

Now, the rookie is going to struggle as most rookie LT’s do, but growing pains at LT are the norm, not the exception. 
 

But we ARE going to address it.   Whether we get it right or not we likely won’t know until after the rookie season. 

 

We don't know how the draft will fall. We don't know anything. As it stands we have two picks in the first three rounds and you don't find a lot of difference makers at T and Edge outside of the first three rounds.

[GoColts8818]

28 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Yes, but not having the quality starter anymore is my point. If we don't address it, it's the same as not addressing depth.

I am sure the Colts are aware of this. It’s why I expect them to go tackle early.  Everything the Colts have said suggests they are targeting getting the long term answer at tackle in the draft so I don’t think you need to worry about it.  

[NewColtsFan]

9 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

We don't know how the draft will fall. We don't know anything. As it stands we have two picks in the first three rounds and you don't find a lot of difference makers at T and Edge outside of the first three rounds.

So?    You think we won’t find the answer in the first two rounds?

 

We have picks in rounds one and two.   Everyone agrees it’s a great class for OT or even guards too if we move Q.   So what’s the problem?    I don’t understand what you’re worried about?    OT will be addressed in the first two rounds and I’m betting with our first pick.  

[NewColtsFan]

32 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Yes, but not having the quality starter anymore is my point. If we don't address it, it's the same as not addressing depth.

Why would you even THINK this, much less write and post this?

 

Seriously, are you OK?   None of what you’re writing here makes any sense....

[GoColts8818]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

So?    You think we won’t find the answer in the first two rounds?

 

We have picks in rounds one and two.   Everyone agrees it’s a great class for OT or even guards too if we move Q.   So what’s the problem?    I don’t understand what you’re worried about?    OT will be addressed in the first two rounds and I’m betting with our first pick.  

And if the draft just doesn’t fall their way they have the break glass in case of emergency option with moving Q like you said.  So while I fully expect them to go tackle early if they don’t all is not lost.  

[CR91]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

So?    You think we won’t find the answer in the first two rounds?

 

We have picks in rounds one and two.   Everyone agrees it’s a great class for OT or even guards too if we move Q.   So what’s the problem?    I don’t understand what you’re worried about?    OT will be addressed in the first two rounds and I’m betting with our first pick.  

 

Which is exactly what should happen or Edge. My point is there is no BPA this year. We just can't with the two obvious needs.

[CR91]

6 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I am sure the Colts are aware of this. It’s why I expect them to go tackle early.  Everything the Colts have said suggests they are targeting getting the long term answer at tackle in the draft so I don’t think you need to worry about it.  

 

And I agree which is my point when I say there is no BPA this year.

[polk_high_allstar]

8 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

We don't know how the draft will fall. We don't know anything. As it stands we have two picks in the first three rounds and you don't find a lot of difference makers at T and Edge outside of the first three rounds.

Ballard will stick to his board and pick the BPA based on that board.  If guys are valued equally their may be a conversation about taking a guy based on need but doubt he will ever reach for a player based on a perceived "need".  If the domino's don't fall and we can't address the LT spot in the draft chances are he will look at a guy like Fisher and bring him in for a year.  Same goes for the Edge.  We have Lewis/Turay and honestly believe that Ballard is excited about what they can do with more snaps.  He could also still look at Houston as a 1 year bridge as a rotational player as well.  Ballard's contacts he gives out leaves us with a lot of future flexibility.  Seeing that our SB window isn't even open that's a good thing. 

 

I'm 100% confident that we will exit this draft better off then we are today.  Ballard will find us difference makers that will help us this year and the future.

[richard pallo]

9 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

We don't know how the draft will fall. We don't know anything. As it stands we have two picks in the first three rounds and you don't find a lot of difference makers at T and Edge outside of the first three rounds.

You are right we don’t know how the draft will fall.  That’s why I think they will address it with the 1st pick.  It’s too important of a position not to.  I’m sure they view the team as SB contenders again just like last year.  And now we have Wentz.  Reich, Ballard everyone is invested in Wentz’s and the teams success.  To me that mean’s making sure we nail down that LT position one way or the other.

[GoColts8818]

Just now, CR91 said:

 

Which is exactly what should happen or Edge. My point is there is no BPA this year. We just can't with the two obvious needs.

Like I said in another thread people see BPA or drafting for need as too black and white. It’s a combination of both.  Again for example if when the Colts pick at 21 if the highest rated CB on their board is like 19 and the highest tackle is like 28 and the highest end is 32 they are going to draft the CB and not reach because of need.  Now if the highest guy left on your board is say 18 and you have tackle or edge rated as 20 that changes thing and need may trump the slight rankings difference.  
 

Also that’s how most of us see the Colts needs that doesn't mean it’s how the Colts see it.  If you listen to his end of the year presser Ballard hasn’t given up on Turey or Banogu yet and pretty much said this will be a make or break year for both.  So if he has faith in them and Lewis to be a run stopper off the edge he might not see edge as big of a need as most here do.  That doesn’t mean Ballard will ultimately be right but it might be how he sees it.  He could also see it like we do as well we just don’t know.  
 

Also, Irsay said earlier this week they need another star cornerback.  Again maybe that’s a draft smoke screen we just don’t know but it could also mean the Colts don’t see the needs the same way we do.  Just like last year when everyone lost their minds that they drafted Taylor because the Colts didn’t need a running back, they needed a QB, safety edge, or even tackle or the future.  Clearly the Colts felt otherwise and it’s a good thing they did.  
 

the other spot to watch is tightend.  Ballard has made it known they want a play making tightend.  If he finds someone he likes don’t be shocked to see him pull the trigger on him despite other needs.  Just like the year everyone said the a Colts were going corner in round one and took Dallas Clark instead or the year they got Reggie when again everyone thought they were going corner.  
 

My point is the Colts aren’t going to marry  themselves to need.  Yes I am sure they want a tackle and are going to try to get one but if they find themselves in a situation like last year where they have a chance to get a guy they feel is too good to pass on like they did with Taylor they are going to take him regardless of need.  

[csmopar]

On 4/22/2021 at 11:38 PM, EastStreet said:

Purely my opinion, but I think this year is a bit different. Of course nobody knows what will happen but overall my thoughts are.....

 

1. Ballard will try to find a multiplier to turn his first two picks into 3 picks in the first 2 rounds. 
2. I'd predict we sign a vet DE, be it Houston or some one else, and take a DE in the first two rounds. However you look at it, Ballard has not been successful in the DE space since he's come to Indy. Outside of FAs, he just hasn't found that much production. Right now the existing DEs on the roster are either ?s, tweeners, or second tier guys. 
3. Assuming we don't sign a legit OL in FA, he has to take one in first two rounds. Maybe early third if he trades picks. 

All in all, our D wasn't near as good as our ranks suggested last year, at least on the pass D side. While some may be down on Houston and Autry, they had good production, and missing them doesn't make us better. And we can't go long with a guy like Tevi at LT and expect our O to be at the level (top 10ish) it was last year with a new QB to boot.

 

I'm still predicting DE and LT as the first two picks, even if we trade. The need is just vastly higher than other positions. 

I agree. He’s taken a few DL but not many have been much more than depth. But to be fair, he’s not really targeted them high. With the expected run on QB, Wr, and CB, I expect one of the top 3-4 DEs to fall to where we could be in play. And I think T will be addressed in the unlikeliness that none of the top DEs are there but the top several Ts are. This is one year where I think he doesn’t trade back, in fact, depending on how it plays out, he may try and go up.

[w87r]

Going to have to side with the "BPA" crowd here. Like has been posted if it is close between BPA and need, that will probably tip the scale, if not trade back or take BPA.

 

Colts will not reach and have stated so. Yes we are going in with some needs, but the offseason isn't over with the draft.

 

 

Edge:

Ballard has stated he needs to see what Turay and Banogu bring to the table. There is still a handful of vets that can come in and provide veteran snaps as well. So even if we don't draft an Edge, there are options.

 

Tackle:

As stated the Colts at all levels have pretty much said Tackle will be addressed. When? Most likely early, but again not going to reach to make it happen. Will they trade back if their next highest rated tackle is quite a few slots down? Maybe? Will they trade up if 1 of their top rated guys is within reach? Maybe. Will they stay put and draft them in our slot? Maybe.

 

I think Tackle has a much better chance of being addressed in the draft. I think both will, but it will depend on how the draft falls.

 

There is also some more veteran OT left in FA as well, so regardless what happens in the draft, there is still other option.

 

Cheap rookie deals would be ideal though.