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The reality of the Colts 2021 draft


Four2itus

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20 hours ago, compuls1v3 said:

You say "they".  Are you not a Colts fan?

Yes I am.  I try not to say we when I'm referring to the team playing games.  I get why people say we when talking about teams, but it would have felt weird in that context to me

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2 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

Like I said in another thread people see BPA or drafting for need as too black and white. It’s a combination of both.  Again for example if when the Colts pick at 21 if the highest rated CB on their board is like 19 and the highest tackle is like 28 and the highest end is 32 they are going to draft the CB and not reach because of need.  Now if the highest guy left on your board is say 18 and you have tackle or edge rated as 20 that changes thing and need may trump the slight rankings difference.  
 

Also that’s how most of us see the Colts needs that doesn't mean it’s how the Colts see it.  If you listen to his end of the year presser Ballard hasn’t given up on Turey or Banogu yet and pretty much said this will be a make or break year for both.  So if he has faith in them and Lewis to be a run stopper off the edge he might not see edge as big of a need as most here do.  That doesn’t mean Ballard will ultimately be right but it might be how he sees it.  He could also see it like we do as well we just don’t know.  
 

Also, Irsay said earlier this week they need another star cornerback.  Again maybe that’s a draft smoke screen we just don’t know but it could also mean the Colts don’t see the needs the same way we do.  Just like last year when everyone lost their minds that they drafted Taylor because the Colts didn’t need a running back, they needed a QB, safety edge, or even tackle or the future.  Clearly the Colts felt otherwise and it’s a good thing they did.  
 

the other spot to watch is tightend.  Ballard has made it known they want a play making tightend.  If he finds someone he likes don’t be shocked to see him pull the trigger on him despite other needs.  Just like the year everyone said the a Colts were going corner in round one and took Dallas Clark instead or the year they got Reggie when again everyone thought they were going corner.  
 

My point is the Colts aren’t going to marry  themselves to need.  Yes I am sure they want a tackle and are going to try to get one but if they find themselves in a situation like last year where they have a chance to get a guy they feel is too good to pass on like they did with Taylor they are going to take him regardless of need.  

Outstanding Post. Thank you.

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3 hours ago, csmopar said:

I agree. He’s taken a few DL but not many have been much more than depth. But to be fair, he’s not really targeted them high. With the expected run on QB, Wr, and CB, I expect one of the top 3-4 DEs to fall to where we could be in play. And I think T will be addressed in the unlikeliness that none of the top DEs are there but the top several Ts are. This is one year where I think he doesn’t trade back, in fact, depending on how it plays out, he may try and go up.

I agree on the 2nd bolded. Given several issues, I think at least one of the top 4 DEs will be there late 1st or even early 2nd. Disagree on the first bolded (we may have different expectations). He's taken 3 second round DEs, and one 3rd rounder. That's a lot of capital. Purely my opinion, but I think 1st and 2nd rounders should equate to starters. 3rd rounders rotational or high depth.

 

If you rank them in draft capital

 

2nd

Banogu (49th) - almost zero productivity in two years

Turray (52nd) - a few flashes as pass rush specialist, but mostly slow development due to injuries.

Lewis (64th) - decent depth, more of a tweener than prototypical DE. Will likely take over Autry's role.

3rd

Basham (80th) - cut after a year. Started for NYJs last year and just signed a 2 year deal with Dallas

6th

Green (199) - nothing

 

So the guy that has probably gotten the most NFL snaps/year the last few years is the guy we took in the third, but cut... lol

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I expect CB to trade back and hopefully stay in the 1st round or very early second and pick up at least another couple draft choices. I would not be at all surprised if he went TE with his first pick and hopefully pick up a DE early 2nd and LT next pick. I think there are 3 top LTs that will be gone in the first 20 picks and then I think there are 6 to 8 that fall into the 2nd tier that could spill into the 3rd round. I could see us double up on DE or LT if Smith the DE from U of Northern Iowa or Little the LT from Stanford last into the 3rd or 4th round. Beyond that I think CB and WR would be next.

I'm still not convinced our LT isn't already on the roster and that we could flirt with picking up a FA DE. Only God nows how things will fall but we will all know by next Sunday morning. In CB I trust!!

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1 hour ago, hoosierhawk said:

I expect CB to trade back and hopefully stay in the 1st round or very early second and pick up at least another couple draft choices. I would not be at all surprised if he went TE with his first pick and hopefully pick up a DE early 2nd and LT next pick. I think there are 3 top LTs that will be gone in the first 20 picks and then I think there are 6 to 8 that fall into the 2nd tier that could spill into the 3rd round. I could see us double up on DE or LT if Smith the DE from U of Northern Iowa or Little the LT from Stanford last into the 3rd or 4th round. Beyond that I think CB and WR would be next.

I'm still not convinced our LT isn't already on the roster and that we could flirt with picking up a FA DE. Only God nows how things will fall but we will all know by next Sunday morning. In CB I trust!!

Who is the tight end you think might be worth a late first or early second?    
 

Honestly, it’s terrible year for tight ends, and I don’t think the player you want even exists? 

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On 4/24/2021 at 10:50 AM, Les Poulains said:

The very obvious problem with all this is if we have to play Tevi or Davenport for any extended period, whether it's because the tackle we draft isn't yet pro ready, or for whatever reason, Ballard will look bad. He just will. It's one thing to say "pick the BPA", it's another thing to delude yourself and say we don't still have a massive hole on the roster at one of the most important positions in the sport. 

 

We simply have not adequately filled the LT spot yet in FA and no matter how much you want to talk about not overpaying and looking for value, we now have to hit on a guy in the draft or we're playing a minus at the position or moving someone around on the Oline. 

Why would Ballard look bad?   He signed both Tevi and Davenport, in part, for just that scenario.   That the rookie — whoever it is — just might not be ready on Day One.

 

A rookie LT not being ready on Day One is quite normal.   It should be expected.   It happens all the time. 

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Just now, NewColtsFan said:

Why would Ballard look bad?   He signed both Tevi and Davenport, in part, for just that scenario.   That the rookie — whoever it is — just might not be ready on Day One.

 

A rookie LT not being ready on Day One is quite normal.   It should be expected.   It happens all the time. 

You hit the nail on the hood he wouldn’t.  The question is are Tevi and Davenport better than the group of guys they had as backup tackles last year not are they better than AC.  If they are better then no he won’t look bad and who knows maybe he sees something in one of them like he did in Glow who has turned into a very good starter.  That’s probably not likely but it goes back to GMs look at what players can do while fans look at what they have done.  

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5 hours ago, BlackTiger said:

Yes I am.  I try not to say we when I'm referring to the team playing games.  I get why people say we when talking about teams, but it would have felt weird in that context to me

I am with you.  I am not employed by the Colts nor is my life impacted by them outside of enjoying watching them play so it’s not a “we” situation for me.  I find that someone questioning if you are a fan or not because you don’t say we laughable.  

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11 hours ago, hoosierhawk said:

I expect CB to trade back and hopefully stay in the 1st round or very early second and pick up at least another couple draft choices. I would not be at all surprised if he went TE with his first pick and hopefully pick up a DE early 2nd and LT next pick. I think there are 3 top LTs that will be gone in the first 20 picks and then I think there are 6 to 8 that fall into the 2nd tier that could spill into the 3rd round. I could see us double up on DE or LT if Smith the DE from U of Northern Iowa or Little the LT from Stanford last into the 3rd or 4th round. Beyond that I think CB and WR would be next.

I'm still not convinced our LT isn't already on the roster and that we could flirt with picking up a FA DE. Only God nows how things will fall but we will all know by next Sunday morning. In CB I trust!!

I think he wants to take back but this may not be a good year for trading back because of the affect of covid

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12 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I agree on the 2nd bolded. Given several issues, I think at least one of the top 4 DEs will be there late 1st or even early 2nd. Disagree on the first bolded (we may have different expectations). He's taken 3 second round DEs, and one 3rd rounder. That's a lot of capital. Purely my opinion, but I think 1st and 2nd rounders should equate to starters. 3rd rounders rotational or high depth.

 

If you rank them in draft capital

 

2nd

Banogu (49th) - almost zero productivity in two years

Turray (52nd) - a few flashes as pass rush specialist, but mostly slow development due to injuries.

Lewis (64th) - decent depth, more of a tweener than prototypical DE. Will likely take over Autry's role.

3rd

Basham (80th) - cut after a year. Started for NYJs last year and just signed a 2 year deal with Dallas

6th

Green (199) - nothing

 

So the guy that has probably gotten the most NFL snaps/year the last few years is the guy we took in the third, but cut... lol

That is my greatest criticism of Ballard. His inability to build the Dline thru the draft. He wants to run the Seattle defense but has been unable to solidify the Dend positions. The Dline drives this defense.

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18 minutes ago, gspdx said:

 

Pretty big assumption there.  Just because some don't believe and act like you doesn't mean they don't care.

Its an assumption either way, thats my belief.  Some people might have a looser standard than I do, I think they are a long shot to win a super bowl

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18 minutes ago, gspdx said:

 

Pretty big assumption there.  Just because some don't believe and act like you doesn't mean they don't care.

Odd that he claims they don't care.   They traded for a QB with a career winning record and 113/56 TD/INT ratio.  Signed several of their own players back.     

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6 minutes ago, Myles said:

Odd that he claims they don't care.   They traded for a QB with a career winning record and 113/56 TD/INT ratio.  Signed several of their own players back.     

I said specifically i think they could have done more about the pass rush.  they have the money and then some to cover contracts coming up.  once again they are projected to have lots of cap space next year

 

Wentz is really a different conversation but I'm not high on him now. I have an eagles fan in the family and watched games last year.  

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If you all want a decent idea of who is high on CB’s draft board, look no further than the Senior Bowl. He always salivates on SR Bowl standouts and if you look at his draft history, many of them were just that.

Now, look at the SR Bowl standouts from this year and the names that jump out are Radunz and Basham.

Based on most draft rankings, the Colts could trade down to the bottom of the first round or early second, gain a pick or two, and still likely land both these players. 
As long as CB is okay taking a shot at another Basham pass rusher, I can see this scenario happening. Book it!!!

 

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1 hour ago, Moosejawcolt said:

I think he wants to take back but this may not be a good year for trading back because of the affect of covid

Because of Covid I would like a trade back in rd. 1 and that's it.  After that I would like to use one or two of our later rd picks to move up a little in the earlier rounds.  Again because of Covid and all of the uncertainty.  Not a popular strategy but I like it for this year.  

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17 hours ago, Myles said:

Sure I do but the BPA term is used way too literal.  The Colts can take the BPA with any of their picks but it won't be a RB even if he is the best player available.   Nearly any other position they may take BPA.  

 

To the contrary, I think people try to make BPA a literal term so they can nitpick at it as a concept. Primarily because they want their team to address immediate perceived needs in the draft, especially in the first round.

 

If BPA at #21 is a QB or a RB, will the Colts draft a QB or a RB at #21? Probably not.

 

If a player at a position of need -- tackle, edge -- is the 8th best player on the Colts board at #21, will they reach past seven other players at less obvious/immediate positions of need to take a player they have ranked lower? Probably not.

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31 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

Its an assumption either way, thats my belief.  Some people might have a looser standard than I do, I think they are a long shot to win a super bowl

 

I would agree.  And I don't think signing one of the FA edge rushers would have changed that too much.  But again - that is my opinion.  It doesn't mean I am right or wrong, and doesn't mean the team or other fans aren't interested in winning.  

 

It's important to remember that Ballard makes A LOT of money to build this team.  He has a method and since Luck left I think that changed the timeline for having this team at a Super Bowl level.  I am also sure he and Irsay have had plenty of long conversations about it.  Ballard is not going to change his process as long as Irsay is on board.  

 

I would expect if this team doesn't look like a contender in a couple of years then Ballard could be in the hot seat.  But he is trying to build a team that will be able to maintain sustained success and over spending on FAs is an easy way to get into financial trouble and blow all of that up. 

 

Spending big on FAs does not mean you are serious about winning.  It just means you are serious about spending big on FAs.  In some ways I think it means you are serious about putting fans in the stands.  

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2 hours ago, richard pallo said:

Because of Covid I would like a trade back in rd. 1 and that's it.  After that I would like to use one or two of our later rd picks to move up a little in the earlier rounds.  Again because of Covid and all of the uncertainty.  Not a popular strategy but I like it for this year.  

The problem is that a lot of teams want to trade back this year because teams have not been able to fully assess each player. 

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8 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

The problem is that a lot of teams want to trade back this year because teams have not been able to fully assess each player. 

This actually works for my strategy.  They can trade back with us as we move up into their pick for say rounds 2 ,3 or 4.  

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3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

To the contrary, I think people try to make BPA a literal term so they can nitpick at it as a concept. Primarily because they want their team to address immediate perceived needs in the draft, especially in the first round.

 

If BPA at #21 is a QB or a RB, will the Colts draft a QB or a RB at #21? Probably not.

 

If a player at a position of need -- tackle, edge -- is the 8th best player on the Colts board at #21, will they reach past seven other players at less obvious/immediate positions of need to take a player they have ranked lower? Probably not.

This is pretty much exactly what I’ve been trying to say for the past couple of days.

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21 hours ago, csmopar said:

He’s taken a few DL but not many have been much more than depth. But to be fair, he’s not really targeted them high. With the expected run on QB, Wr, and CB, I expect one of the top 3-4 DEs to fall to where we could be in play. And I think T will be addressed in the unlikeliness that none of the top DEs are there but the top several Ts are. This is one year where I think he doesn’t trade back, in fact, depending on how it plays out, he may try and go up.

 

I Disagree.

Read EastStreet's post on page #3 responding. :coltshelmet:

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17 hours ago, EastStreet said:

I agree on the 2nd bolded. Given several issues, I think at least one of the top 4 DEs will be there late 1st or even early 2nd. Disagree on the first bolded (we may have different expectations). He's taken 3 second round DEs, and one 3rd rounder. That's a lot of capital. Purely my opinion, but I think 1st and 2nd rounders should equate to starters. 3rd rounders rotational or high depth.

 

If you rank them in draft capital

 

2nd

Banogu (49th) - almost zero productivity in two years

Turray (52nd) - a few flashes as pass rush specialist, but mostly slow development due to injuries.

Lewis (64th) - decent depth, more of a tweener than prototypical DE. Will likely take over Autry's role.

3rd

Basham (80th) - cut after a year. Started for NYJs last year and just signed a 2 year deal with Dallas

6th

Green (199) - nothing

 

So the guy that has probably gotten the most NFL snaps/year the last few years is the guy we took in the third, but cut... lol

Well Played GIF by memecandy

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Nice thread @Four2itus  :thmup:

 

I think it was an episode of With The Next Pick that Ballard basically explained how they make the "BPA vs need" decisions during the draft.

 

Ballard talked about "groups" of players that they value similarly, and would be willing to draft at a certain draft spot, and if all the players from that group are gone, they're trying to trade down.  BUT if there's still a number of players from the group all still available, then they take the position into account.

 

So they may find themselves in a position on Thursday night where none of the players they wanted at 21 are left and they're trying to trade down, or they're in a situation where there's a LT, CB, WR, DE all still available from the "group", and so then they discuss how big the need is at each position if they value all four players about the same.  So the Colts may end up drafting a LT at 21, but it won't be because they're reaching for "need", it will be because there was still a really good LT left from the "group" they were willing to draft at 21.

 

It's all very fluid and not as simple as some want it to be, and Ballard has been pretty transparent about their process, even talking about taking character into account when comparing players within "groups".  Ballard has done everything but show us his actual draft board.  If we get to the 21st pick, and none of the LTs from that "group" are left, it shouldn't surprise anyone that Ballard drafts a blue-chip WR/TE/S that fell in his lap.

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11 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

That is my greatest criticism of Ballard. His inability to build the Dline thru the draft. He wants to run the Seattle defense but has been unable to solidify the Dend positions. The Dline drives this defense.

I agree he's struggled on the DL. The only player from the draft in terms of starters is Stewart at NT, and NTs are a bit devalued in the league, and our D. Don't get me wrong, I'm a fan of Grover and all, but DEs and 3T are the high priced positions. I don't mind paying a FA like Buckner, I just expect more from all the draft capital we used. Lewis is coming on, and I hope he might be able to at least produce in Autry's spot if that's our direction. Turay might develop, but that's a big if right now. Just not sure either end up being legit DEs.

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