TY Hilton not on the decline

[NannyMcafee]

according to this article. 

 

There isn’t anything on film I see that indicates he has dropped off at all. He still is a crisp route runner with very good play speed, and has drawn a number of big pass interference and defensive holding penalties so far this season. The nature of the Colts offense and Philip Rivers’ tendency to spread the ball around have definitely impacted his numbers on the season, as have the particular kind of games the Colts have played.

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2020/10/10/21510377/film-room-what-is-up-with-colts-receiver-t-y-hilton

[AwesomeAustin]

His talent is undeniable.  I believe his health will be the true indicator.  Best ability is availability. 

[John Waylon]

I just don’t think he’s developed any chemistry with any other QB like he did with Luck. Maybe he can’t, I’m not ruling that out. But TY without Luck has rarely been the same TY as with Luck. There’s a definite connection there.  

[Four2itus]

Never thought he was....

[CR91]

Luck to hilton was special. Would Marv have been as good without Peyton?

[EastStreet]

While I think the overall tone of his message is correct (TY can still be good), his film review is not all that great.

 

On the 3rd film, MPJ is not wide open. He's open for a quick sec when CJH releases him to the S, but the S is closing from the back end. Rivers just got fooled by CJ releasing to help on TY, which he hadn't done the previous plays. And TY's route and effort were pretty lazy IMO.

 

On the 4th, PC was open and was starting to beat his guy long, the throw was just a tad strong. Sure, TY was open, but the decision to throw it to PC was not a bad one. 

 

The 5th and 6th are just a "bad" on TY who needs to hold on.

 

The 7th, not sure what route TY is trying to run. Knocked off? Looks more like TY just ran with the DB, instead of beating him, or coming back. Hard to say without knowing the route/play-call, but TY just looks meh on it.

 

The 8th, "solid after the catch" comment is questionable. Yes he makes a decent move, but gets tracked down from behind by a LB....  

 

The 9th is just bad (TD drop) lol.

 

The 10th is purely bad CB play.

 

The 11th, great climb the ladder play, but poor release (gets tied up) on the DB that required him to climb in the first place.

 

Overall, some bad play, with some good sprinkled in. Either it was very good DB play (5, 6, 7, 11) or TY is just not as dynamic as he used to be. TY used to beat guys, wall off guys, release from guys cleanly, and fight and win for contested catches. Not saying he can't still be very good, he just needs to change his game a bit, and perhaps the play calling to him needs to change as well. Most of the plays were single coverage too.

 

 

[aaron11]

i think its fair to wonder if he is declining 

[Sumo63]

23 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

i think its fair to wonder if he is declining 

I think hes going on 30 right?  That the "natural" tipping point.  youre right, its definitely fair.

[Yoshinator]

Has he declined? No. Is he declining? Probably a bit.

 

I blame Rivers more than Hilton though as Rivers has thrown some poor passes to him. However, there was a 55 yard td that Hilton dropped, and that was completely his fault.

[Moosejawcolt]

Apparently the major indicator of a WR regressing is dropped  passes. They start to lose their legs which leads to drops. Heard that from a top GM. Not sure about the rationale for it 

[John Hammonds]

6 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Has he declined? No. Is he declining? Probably a bit.

 

I blame Rivers more than Hilton though as Rivers has thrown some poor passes to him. However, there was a 55 yard td that Hilton dropped, and that was completely his fault.

I agree.  Had he caught the 55 yd td pass that he lost in the sun and the 4th down pass, he would be tied with Mo Allie-Cox for team lead with 16 catches, for about 230-ish yards and and 1 TD.  Not pro bowl numbers, for sure, but good enough where we wouldn't be having this conversation.

[EastStreet]

16 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Has he declined? No. Is he declining? Probably a bit.

 

I blame Rivers more than Hilton though as Rivers has thrown some poor passes to him. However, there was a 55 yard td that Hilton dropped, and that was completely his fault.

I disagree a bit. Did you watch the film. We forced things to TY last year, and it looked the same. Rivers is throwing to TY, and TY doesn't look like the TY of old. TY used to get doubled, and still get open enough to make the grab by walling off or simply competing for contested balls. He doesn't look to be able to do that as well now. He also used to beat guys regularly long, which he is doing inconsistency now.

 

Take a look at film if you haven't, read the plays I commented on, and let me know what you disagree with.

[CanuckColt]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

i think its fair to wonder if he is declining 

Yes, it is more than fair.

TY seems a half-step or more slower than in his prime.

His game has been based on speed, and when speed guys slow down a little it affects their game negatively and it is noticeable.

 

[CurBeatElite]

6 hours ago, CR91 said:

Luck to hilton was special. Would Marv have been as good without Peyton?

 

Marv, IMO, was the best route runner in NFL history and he and Peyton worked tirelessly to perfect their timing.  Several top-tier CBs who played during Marv's time have also said he is the hardest WR they had to defend because of his route running, quickness and speed (Peanut Tillman and Champ Bailey come to mind):  https://www.stampedeblue.com/2014/10/16/6988669/charles-tillman-says-best-offensive-player-hes-ever-faced-is-marvin   https://www.stampedeblue.com/2014/6/21/5830436/champ-bailey-toughest-wr-to-cover-was-marvin-harrison 

 

In TY's first 8 seasons, he had 0 with 100+ receptions, 1 with 91 receptions, 2 with 82 receptions and 1 with 76 receptions (so only 50% of the time he had 70+ catches).  He has 5 seasons with 1000+ yards and has two seasons with 7 TDs, 2 with 6 TDs and 3 with 5 TDs.

 

TY had Reggie as a true #1 when he came into the league, which took a lot of pressure off of him.  Marv was #1 the day he got drafted and had Harbaugh as his QB.  Marv had a better rookie year (in a less passer-friendly league) than TY with Harbaugh (who I don't think anyone would consider on the same level as Manning or Luck, and his second year in the league was comparable to TYs 2nd year where TY became the top option fairly early in the season after Reggie went down with the knee).

 

In Marv's first 8 years, he had 4 with 100+ receptions and 1 with 90+.  He had 8 TDs as a rookie with Harbaugh (better than Ty's best year) and 6 in year 2 (matching TY's 3rd best year).  Marv's 3rd year (Peyton's rookie year - and Peyton didn't have a very good rookie year) he played 12 games and had 59 receptions and 7 TDs (matching TY's best year).  Marv had 5 of his first 8 seasons with >1,000 yards, and 5 with 10+ TDs (including seasons with 14 and 15 TDs, which double TYs best year).

 

Your question has some validity -- most 'great WRs' had good, very good, or great QBs.  However, Marv was a better WR than TY (IMO, by far).  Would Jerry Rice be as good if he didn't play with 2 HOF QBs (Montana and Young)?  Probably not.  If you break it down on production over a time period, Marv had far better numbers than Rice.  Unfortunately, Marv got hurt and never recovered fully - Rice had more longevity and had overall better career numbers.  

  

You could ask another unanswerable question like 'would Larry Fitzgerald put up better overall numbers if he played with Brady/Manning/Brees for the majority of his career?'  I assume, he would have (Moss probably would have better career numbers than he wound up with if he was paired with Brady and Bellichick his whole career)... Larry's still a HOF talent, just like Marv.  TY simply isn't.  

 

Going on durability, Marv missed 4 games in year two, he missed 1 game in year 8 and played 16 games in the other 6 years (going on first 8 years to compare to TY - so 5 games in 8 years with 75% of the years making it through 16 games).  TY has played 16 games in 4 of his first 8 years (50%), and missed 10 total games.  TY was hampered by calf injuries the past 2 seasons, which is somewhat concerning.

 

I like TY.  I like him a lot.  He seems like a great teammate.  He's got a great personality.  He's a very good football player.  There is a lot that goes into the NFL now that didn't then (e.g., social media, ESPN doing more 'personality' type of work, etc..).  Marv was, from all accounts, a good teammate.  He never spoke to the media.  He was never flashy.  He never wanted attention off the field.  Despite that, Marv was a 2x First-Team All-Pro, 3x Second-Team All Pro, and 5x pro-bowler in his first 8 years.  He let his production do the talking for him.  TY has not made a First- or Second-Team All Pro team once in his first 8 years and made it to the probowl 4x.  Part of the pro-bowl (a big part) is fan voting.  TY has an excellent TD dance, he sells 'The Ghost' shirts, shows up to games with clown masks on, he's a likeable guy and fans (not just Colts' fans) love him.  He has really marketed his 'brand' which was not really a thing when Marv was in his early days (I guess Keyshawn Johnson's 'Give me the damn ball' book really changed that for WRs and with social media and more television coverage for individual personalities now, it's continued to grow).

 

Long story short, TY is not Marv.  He's not a HOFer (Marv should have been 1st ballot - his off-the-field, after retirement, gun stuff had to have impacted that).  That said, I sure do like TY and am glad he's a Colt.  Marv was an 'elite' WR by year 3 in the league and kept 'elite' status until he blew out his knee at the end of his career.  TY has never been 'elite', he's been 'very good' a few seasons.  To TY's benefit, he was #2 to Reggie and after Reggie got hurt he never has had a top-notch #2.  Marv didn't really have a true #2 in Reggie until 2003 (Reggie was nothing more than 'average' year 1 and 2 which was 2001-2002).  In 2002, Marv was getting double or triple teamed every single game and caught 143 balls (in a far less WR-friendly league than TY has dealt with his whole career).  

 

  

5 hours ago, Sumo63 said:

I think hes going on 30 right?  That the "natural" tipping point.  youre right, its definitely fair.

 

As a rule of thumb, sure.  That's anything in life really ("I'm on the wrong side of 30" works for recovering from a workout, a night out, eating fast food, etc.).  TY turns 31 in November.  He had nagging calf injuries that obviously impacted his performance the past two years, and missed some time in training camp with another leg injury (I think it was a hammy). 

 

5 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Apparently the major indicator of a WR regressing is dropped  passes. They start to lose their legs which leads to drops. Heard that from a top GM. Not sure about the rationale for it 

 

The rationale is when you're young and nimble, you 'trust' your legs and athletic ability to put you in the spot you expect them to be able to be in.  Essentially, if you have 'hand-eye' coordination and 'foot-eye' coordination, you are able to basically eliminate the 'foot-eye' (maybe not eliminate, but you just do it faster and trust yourself) and focus on the 'hand-eye'.  Not sure your age or if you've ever had friends throw you a ball when jumping off a diving board into a swimming pool -- but when you are able to just look at the diving board and the area you intend to land at in the pool very quickly, you don't think about the run from the end of the diving board or leaping off it, you just go and focus on the ball.  You get a little older, maybe a little slower, you would likely tend to have a bit of hesitance just running off the board and you'd be looking at your surrounding to make sure you aren't going to slip, not going to jump to early or late, not going to hit the water at a bad surface because you're worried that your legs may fail you.  Not sure if that's the best analogy, but if you think about a WR looking a sideline or a yard marker, when they can just do it 'in stride' after a very brief glimpse with high confidence, that 'foot-eye' coordination/concentration goes away and they can focus on the ball.  If they lose a step or even a half-step with how fast today's NFL players are, and spend 0.25 seconds extra wondering if you can actually get your legs/body to the ball, you lose 0.25 seconds focusing on the ball.  

 

___________________________________________________

I don't want to have this sound like I'm bashing TY.  I like the guy and am not too concerned with him.  I think he benefited a lot with Luck because Luck could extend plays and TY was quick and elusive enough to find the right place to be.  Luck also had a cannon which in certain instances allowed TY to just outrun his defender and chase the ball.  Luck, and Brissett, also kept TY as their #1 target (Brissett very obviously was looking at TY as option 1 and not doing a great job of checking everyone else out last year).  Rivers does not extend plays with his legs, nor does he try to.  He is comfortable spreading the ball around, he's also comfortable to 'dumping' the ball off to his nearest target (sometimes, I think he prefers that and trusts the YAC from the shorter/safer throw).  I think Rivers still has a good arm, but he doesn't have the cannon Luck had.  

 

All to TY's benefit of doubt: 1) He's 4 games into a season with a new QB who has a very unique way of delivering a football, 2) He's played several games without the planned #2 and #3 WR options (Campbell and Pittman), 3) He's played several games without the planned top TE targets (Doyle and Burton), 4) He's played several games without the planned RB attack (loss of Mack), 5) This would be the end of 'pre-season' games in most normal years where some minor kinks in game-like situations could be worked out between the QB and his #1 WR (you'd have a hard time selling me that the intra-squad scrimmages equal pre-season games against other teams, and 6) he is playing with a QB who has been long known to distribute the ball pretty equally (TY was always the go-to after Reggie went down for Luck (who extended plays) and always for Brissett (who struggles progressing through reads), Rivers doesn't and has never had a 'go-to' guy that he relied on to get the ball to, he gets it out to the first read he sees as fast as he can).  

[funktacious2]

I don't know if he has declined much or at all, but I haven't forgotten those crucial drops week 1 and that TD he dropped. But he has indeed been getting some better looks and drawn some PI. One of them he was definitely going to burn them for a TD assuming he caught it.

[crazycolt1]

Well he may have lost a step but his veteran presence is needed for our very young WR room. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

, TY before the 2018 playoff game at the Texans. 

[B~Town]

Ya no Ty is not the player he once was . Ty was elite a top 10 reciever is the league . Ty is still a good vet but he has not been the same since those leg injuries started to pile up .

[Stephen]

15 minutes ago, B~Town said:

Ya no Ty is not the player he once was . Ty was elite a top 10 reciever is the league . Ty is still a good vet but he has not been the same since those leg injuries started to pile up .

Luck retiring  changed him.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Just now, Stephen said:

Luck retiring  changed him.

It hurt him no doubt, I can even tell but Rivers is good so time will tell.

[Hoose]

I think it’s premature to make any declaration on a T.Y. decline. He’s healthy this year so far, and there is a lot of football left this season. He has a new QB who, as we know, spreads the ball around. Mo Alie Cox is emerging as a lethal weapon. Doyle and Burton are going to have to eat too.The RBs are now routinely in play as receivers. So the opportunities are fewer. But they will still be there. Let’s see how TY and Rivers gel over the next 12 games. Don’t be surprised to see them bust out for 3-4 TDS over the next quarter of the season. The offense should become a little less predictable, and that will help our number 1 wideout. 

[crazycolt1]

18 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Luck retiring  changed him.

Luck retiring effected this whole team. 

As much as I loved his play on the field the disappointment will never go away for me. 

I can't hate on him because if his love of the game left him, it was time to go.