The Cost of Getting to 4

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

how would you know?

He’s making an educated guess based on what Ballard has both said and done.. 

 

For example, Ballard was asked the night of the first round if the Colts were even close to trading up at all.  And Ballard’s response was roughly....  “No, it’s way too expensive to move up in the first round.   I like having all my picks.”

 

Does it mean he’ll never do it?   No.

 

But it doesn’t seem like a stretch to think Ballard is highly unlikely to trade 13, one of our seconds, and a one next year (more?) to move up to four this year.   
 

His actions and his words say it’s not likely to happen. 

[Fisticuffs111]

Eh. Not big on the idea of trading all the way up to 4.

 

I have a hard time seeing Ballard trade up more than a few spots.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

17 minutes ago, CantBeStopped said:

Why not? KC did it and look what they got

Texans with Watson too.  If you are sold on a QB try and go get them.

[Mel Kiper's Hair]

16 minutes ago, CantBeStopped said:

Why not? KC did it and look what they got

 

 

If you are right and you get a QB like Patrick Mahomes you are praised and called a smart GM, BUT  if you are wrong and trade up for Johnny Manziel you are UNEMPLOYED. 

[CantBeStopped]

2 minutes ago, Mel Kiper's Hair said:

 

 

If you are right and you get a QB like Patrick Mahomes you are praised and called a smart GM, BUT  if you are wrong and trade up for Johnny Manziel you are UNEMPLOYED. 

CB would never trade up for a manziel type. Everyone knew that kid was going to bust. Not because he lacked talent but moreso he lacked character and drive to be great. I don't think Love lacks either one of those things. As far as herbert. I see him more like luck. The game needs his talent more than he needs the game. I could see him retiring early as well

[OffensivelyPC]

1 hour ago, ztboiler said:

It’s just as detrimental, if not moreso, to Ballard’s future as a GM if he plays it safe without a franchise QB.

 

He is paid to be right.  He’s said as much himself.  What we know for sure is that if he doesn’t think this year’s QB crop is his best opportunity then he will wait for a better one to push all-in on.

 

Ballard also knows that he’s built a good enough roster that he may never again draft high enough to get the QB he wants without mortgaging a bunch of draft capital 

To the bolded, I actually had that same though written in my post and i reworded the paragraph and forgot to add it back in.  Totally agree.

 

The rest of your post is pretty much how I feel.  I doubt we draft much higher next year unless JB gets injured or we just give up on him and try Chad Kelly.  Or unless we make the call to institutionally tank, which I guess is possible to anyone who thinks that's what we did in 2011.  

 

But what's Ballard do if we aren't able to manipulate draft capital to get a guy in the nex t2 years?  Ballard is pretty good about trading down and grabbing draft capital, so I could see him reaching for a guy and moving picks (before or after) to offset the costs.  While the QBs in this class outside of Burrows are not the strongest of 1st round options over the past few years, I think they could very easily out play JB in time (Fromm, I'm not so sure of).  But what he does this year might give us a little bit of insight into how he feels about next year's crop if he doesn't draft a QB.

[OffensivelyPC]

1 hour ago, CantBeStopped said:

Why not? KC did it and look what they got

So did Arizona Cardinals... and then Miami...

 

Could pay off.  Might burn ya for a couple years.

[Colts_Fan12]

59 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

He’s making an educated guess based on what Ballard has both said and done.. 

 

For example, Ballard was asked the night of the first round if the Colts were even close to trading up at all.  And Ballard’s response was roughly....  “No, it’s way too expensive to move up in the first round.   I like having all my picks.”

 

Does it mean he’ll never do it?   No.

 

But it doesn’t seem like a stretch to think Ballard is highly unlikely to trade 13, one of our seconds, and a one next year (more?) to move up to four this year.   
 

His actions and his words say it’s not likely to happen. 

in other words he actually has no idea whatsoever 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 hour ago, BigQungus said:

I hate everything about this idea

The chances of a franchise QB just falling in your lap is rare. You have to be aggressive and go get your guy. I was listening to Stephen Holder and Zak Keefer today and they even said if there is a QB you would take at 13 trade up to make sure you will get them.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

13 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

So did Arizona Cardinals... and then Miami...

 

Could pay off.  Might burn ya for a couple years.

Has it burned KC and the Texans. No.

[pgt_rob]

1 hour ago, CantBeStopped said:

Why not? KC did it and look what they got

 

They got Patrick Mahomes. One of the best young QBs in the game. I don't think Herbert or Love are going to be anywhere close to his level. Seems like a huge risk but I suppose if we're drafting in the 20s every year consistently then it doesn't matter much if we give up our 1st rounder.

[NewColtsFan]

12 minutes ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

in other words he actually has no idea whatsoever 

In other words....     no. 

[CantBeStopped]

2 minutes ago, pgt_rob said:

 

They got Patrick Mahomes. One of the best young QBs in the game. I don't think Herbert or Love are going to be anywhere close to his level. Seems like a huge risk but I suppose if we're drafting in the 20s every year consistently then it doesn't matter much if we give up our 1st rounder.

Nobody thought mahomes was even going to be at his level. Why not Love. With reichs coaching I don't see why he couldn't be a star in this league

[Colts_Fan12]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

In other words....     no. 

that's my point it gets old seeing everyone on here telling others what Ballard will do when reality is unless they are Ballard they have no clue what's gonna happen. 

 

as others have said we have never seen Ballard need a QB so we dont know how he will act on that 

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, CantBeStopped said:

Why not? KC did it and look what they got

 

  And KC did it for the best prospect their GM had ever seen.

[CantBeStopped]

25 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

  And KC did it for the best prospect their GM had ever seen.

It's easy to say that now that he's become what he has. Had he busted I don't think their gm would be saying that. He was seen as a raw prospect that had never played in a pro style offense. Many believed it to be a reach when they picked him at 10

[BleedBlue4Shoe86]

37 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

The chances of a franchise QB just falling in your lap is rare. You have to be aggressive and go get your guy. I was listening to Stephen Holder and Zak Keefer today and they even said if there is a QB you would take at 13 trade up to make sure you will get them.

Funny you should say that. I actually just finished listening to that. Not to correct you but they didn’t say that exactly. 
 

They said two schools of thought. One was if you don’t like anyone enough, then you don’t pull the trigger or move up. You got BPA- they really talked a lot about WR. 

 

The second was if you really like a Tua or Herbert or even Love, you do everything you can get him on your roster. 
 

Not correcting you, just giving full example. I’ve that Podcast by the way. Glad someone else listens to it. lol. 

[Fisticuffs111]

So, I get the whole “we don’t know what Ballard will do” stuff...

 

But does anybody think it’s actually likely we trade up that far? I’m thinking, at most, Ballard will take the draft as it comes and potentially trade up if Love is still there at around 9-10. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

5 minutes ago, BleedBlue4Shoe86 said:

Funny you should say that. I actually just finished listening to that. Not to correct you but they didn’t say that exactly. 
 

They said two schools of thought. One was if you don’t like anyone enough, then you don’t pull the trigger or move up. You got BPA- they really talked a lot about WR. 

 

The second was if you really like a Tua or Herbert or even Love, you do everything you can get him on your roster. 
 

Not correcting you, just giving full example. I’ve that Podcast by the way. Glad someone else listens to it. lol. 

Yes they clearly said only if it’s a guy you Love.

 

I was just watching Sean Peyton on with Chris Simms and Mike Florio. They were going to take Mahomes. But he said because Lademore fell they felt Brees with Lademore would be better. So no moving up.  He said had Mahomes been there at I think he said at 11 they would of had a hard time deciding but probably would of took Lademore since they still had Brees. We don’t have the future so if there is a guy your sold on go get him. Peyton also mentioned how much time they spent with Mahomes and how impressive he was on the whiteboard also.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

So, I get the whole “we don’t know what Ballard will do” stuff...

 

But does anybody think it’s actually likely we trade up that far? I’m thinking, at most, Ballard will take the draft as it comes and potentially trade up if Love is still there at around 9-10. 

Depends on how sold he is on a QB. If he is blown away I think he would try.  You are right though that love or Herbert will be there at 9 or 10.  That would make AZ or the jets or even the browns a good trade partner.  Just have to be careful there isn’t another team jumping up before we can. This is where players agents can really come in and provide good inside. You would think the colts and chargers would be where a lot of QB would want to play. 

[richard pallo]

10 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

So, I get the whole “we don’t know what Ballard will do” stuff...

 

But does anybody think it’s actually likely we trade up that far? I’m thinking, at most, Ballard will take the draft as it comes and potentially trade up if Love is still there at around 9-10. 

If Love is they guy they want I could see them moving up to the Browns at 10 or even the Cardinals at 8.  I have a hard time seeing Ballard moving up beyond those two.  

[Fisticuffs111]

6 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Depends on how sold he is on a QB. If he is blown away I think he would try.  You are right though that love or Herbert will be there at 9 or 10.  That would make AZ or the jets or even the browns a good trade partner.  Just have to be careful there isn’t another team jumping up before we can. This is where players agents can really come in and provide good inside. You would think the colts and chargers would be where a lot of QB would want to play. 

 

I’m actually thinking it’s kind of a coin flip as to whether Love is there at that point. We’ll probably have a better idea closer to the draft. I think Herbert will be long gone though, unfortunately.

 

My way too early guess is that Ballard will end up liking these guys, maybe not enamored enough to trade up to 4, but potentially that top 10 area.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Yeah it just depends on who they want. If it’s Herbert they might have to move ahead of the chargers. But also remember there is no guarantee the chargers will take Herbert and not Love. Or Miami will take TUA. That’s why 3 of 4 will guarantee you get the QB you want. Sometimes though teams do get inside info from agents.  Reading that Mahomes story proves that. I am sure Ballard will have a idea of where a player will go. Agents also seem to beable to give teams inside info if they think there is a better fit. Who wouldn’t want to play for Reich. I read a story he won a poll by players saying he would be the one coach they would want to play for. Especially if your a QB.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

 

I’m actually thinking it’s kind of a coin flip as to whether Love is there at that point. We’ll probably have a better idea closer to the draft. I think Herbert will be long gone though, unfortunately.

 

My way too early guess is that Ballard will end up liking these guys, maybe not enamored enough to trade up to 4, but potentially that top 10 area.

Just a hunch but if you like a guy enough to take them at ten then your in love with them and should do everything possible to get them. If you would take them at ten then your probably not willing to risk losing them.

[Rackeen305]

14 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

And I am not even sold on Burrows.  Great year, but only one year.  I have a feeling he won't b that great....just a feeling

Last game of their college careers:

Luck (Stanford) vs Texas Tech. Luck throws the game loosing INT.

Burrow, While losing to the reigning National champs, manages to over come a dominant Clemson team lead by the QB that everybody wants to tank for 2021 (Trevor "Sunshine" Lawrence). Not to mention he beat 6 of the top 10 programs in the country, going undefeated. No sir, Burrow is the real deal.

[OffensivelyPC]

1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

Has it burned KC and the Texans. No.

Did you have a point to make other than basically repeat half of what I said?

[Fisticuffs111]

2 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Just a hunch but if you like a guy enough to take them at ten then your in love with them and should do everything possible to get them. If you would take them at ten then your probably not willing to risk losing them.

 

Well, there’s levels to it though. You could be absolutely enamored by a guy and want to do everything to get him, for example giving up a big haul to get to 4. Or, you could like a guy enough to be willing to move up a few spots while not having to give up a ton.

[Moosejawcolt]

5 hours ago, Rackeen305 said:

Last game of their college careers:

Luck (Stanford) vs Texas Tech. Luck throws the game loosing INT.

Burrow, While losing to the reigning National champs, manages to over come a dominant Clemson team lead by the QB that everybody wants to tank for 2021 (Trevor "Sunshine" Lawrence). Not to mention he beat 6 of the top 10 programs in the country, going undefeated. No sir, Burrow is the real deal.

Luck had a full college career.  Burrows may go on to be the greatest qb that ever pl2syed. I am just so cautious bout a player that has one fantastic year.  Kind of like the free agent who does nothing for 3 years then lights it up in his contract yesr.

[Moosejawcolt]

20 hours ago, ztboiler said:

We’d be drafting in the 20’s this year with serviceable kicking and QB play...

 

We now resume our regularly scheduled dramatic responses.

Um.....they were 7 and 9.  I go by the record not what could have been.  Sure, u could say they should have been 9 and 7.  However, I can just as easily go through their schedule and make an argument that they could habe been 5 and 11.  They lost 7 of their last 9 games.  That is serious  regression.  Yes the kicking game was crap.  However, the passing game was non existent and the D was horrendous

[Rackeen305]

21 hours ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Luck had a full college career.  Burrows may go on to be the greatest qb that ever pl2syed. I am just so cautious bout a player that has one fantastic year.  Kind of like the free agent who does nothing for 3 years then lights it up in his contract yesr.

Let me ask you this. IF the Colts had a chance of getting Burrow, would you want the COLTS to select him...

[Moosejawcolt]

2 hours ago, Rackeen305 said:

Let me ask you this. IF the Colts had a chance of getting Burrow, would you want the COLTS to select him...

It would cost a ton to get him and no.  He had mayb the greatest college season of all time.  That being said.  He only had one year of great or productive football.  I am just so leary of one hit wonders.  

[AZColt11]

I don't want the Colts to move up and lose valuable draft capital.  But if they DID, I wouldn't want them moving up to get a QB.  I don't see Cincy dealing away the rights to Burrow and he's the only one I'd consider moving up for, and even at that he did it (albeit one of the best college QB years ever) for one season.  

 

No, the guy I'd consider moving up to get is Brown.  The more I watch him, the more I like him.  He can play the interior in any scheme.  Single-handedly almost helped Auburn upset LSU.  LSU's offense was held to 23 points that game and Brown was a MAJOR force.  He's as close to NFL plug-and-play as anybody in this draft IMHO, and I think he'll at the VERY least have a great NFL career.  Here's a scouting report on him from thedraftnetwork.com but I'm just going to leave the link here because there are 5 different scouting analysts reports on that page: 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/derrick-brown/pApm8s4Bhi

[stitches]

On 1/30/2020 at 7:31 PM, OffensivelyPC said:

To the bolded, I actually had that same though written in my post and i reworded the paragraph and forgot to add it back in.  Totally agree.

 

The rest of your post is pretty much how I feel.  I doubt we draft much higher next year unless JB gets injured or we just give up on him and try Chad Kelly.  Or unless we make the call to institutionally tank, which I guess is possible to anyone who thinks that's what we did in 2011.  

 

But what's Ballard do if we aren't able to manipulate draft capital to get a guy in the nex t2 years?  Ballard is pretty good about trading down and grabbing draft capital, so I could see him reaching for a guy and moving picks (before or after) to offset the costs.  While the QBs in this class outside of Burrows are not the strongest of 1st round options over the past few years, I think they could very easily out play JB in time (Fromm, I'm not so sure of).  But what he does this year might give us a little bit of insight into how he feels about next year's crop if he doesn't draft a QB.

I think at some point it has to count against him either way. It is part of his job being able to put the team in position to get the next QB. I'd be willing to forgive it or not count him against him the first year, but the second without acquiring a future franchise QB would be effectively him choosing to play with Brissett/Kelly as his franchise QB. Then I won't be so forgiving.

[LockeDown]

Everybody in the league scouted Mahomes that year, including Ballard. He has a really good idea if Love is comparable as some say he is. I wouldn’t worry, if  Ballard thinks he is Mahomes like, then he will get him. He won’t be Blaise about it. Ballard is a guy who is pretty sure what  everyone else is picking and he will have a plan on WHERE to draft him. Love could slide and Ballard might use our 1st pick on a different position and move up with our 2nd pick. That’s what he is good at. He moved on Smith because he was the last starting Oline left. Don’t worry about Ballard is what I say.

[MikeCurtis]

On 1/30/2020 at 12:00 PM, throwing BBZ said:

 

  And KC did it for the best prospect their GM had ever seen.

And the big question from the peanut gallery...

 

Is there a “Mahomes” prospect in THIS draft

 

everyone HOPES that their pick is the one

 

If CB sees this in Love..... he should be aggressive and get the guy

 

I personally don’t see the can’t miss QB in this draft but Burrows and Tua would seem to be close

 

CB won’t tip his hand.......

[ztboiler]

1 hour ago, LockeDown said:

Everybody in the league scouted Mahomes that year, including Ballard. He has a really good idea if Love is comparable as some say he is. I wouldn’t worry, if  Ballard thinks he is Mahomes like, then he will get him. He won’t be Blaise about it. Ballard is a guy who is pretty sure what  everyone else is picking and he will have a plan on WHERE to draft him. Love could slide and Ballard might use our 1st pick on a different position and move up with our 2nd pick. That’s what he is good at. He moved on Smith because he was the last starting Oline left. Don’t worry about Ballard is what I say.

I’m not at all worried about Ballard...but I am worried about the inherent pitfalls of acquiring a franchise QB...which is always a roll of the dice if you aren’t picking Elway, Manning or Luck

[Rackeen305]

On 1/31/2020 at 6:57 PM, Moosejawcolt said:

It would cost a ton to get him and no.  He had mayb the greatest college season of all time.  That being said.  He only had one year of great or productive football.  I am just so leary of one hit wonders.  

So, I ask again, if the Colts had a chance of getting Burrows, would you select him? Not if the price was right. Would you select Burrow?

[AZColt11]

24 minutes ago, Rackeen305 said:

So, I ask again, if the Colts had a chance of getting Burrows, would you select him? Not if the price was right. Would you select Burrow?

I'll bite.  Yeah, I would, again, if he just happened to fall.  I do think he'll be at least better than JB and MUCH cheaper for a few years.  But I wouldn't give up the farm for him for sure.

[MikeCurtis]

On 1/30/2020 at 10:41 AM, NewColtsFan said:

He’s making an educated guess based on what Ballard has both said and done.. 

 

For example, Ballard was asked the night of the first round if the Colts were even close to trading up at all.  And Ballard’s response was roughly....  “No, it’s way too expensive to move up in the first round.   I like having all my picks.”

 

Does it mean he’ll never do it?   No.

 

But it doesn’t seem like a stretch to think Ballard is highly unlikely to trade 13, one of our seconds, and a one next year (more?) to move up to four this year.   
 

His actions and his words say it’s not likely to happen. 

Agreed. 
 

He did say that there were considering moving up for Willis last year

 

but......  I agree..... Prolly not gonna happen

[BigQungus]

On 1/30/2020 at 11:47 AM, Chloe6124 said:

Texans with Watson too.  If you are sold on a QB try and go get them.

 

None of these guys are as good as Deshaun Watson though, so that's a moot point