The Cost of Getting to 4

[ztboiler]

We reaped 3 twos (2 of them high 2s) from the Jets to drop from 3 to 6.

 

What does everyone think the actual cost would be to get from 13 to 4?

[funktacious2]

I wouldn't be surprised if we have to go to 3. Lions have some hot seats and I really see them trading back to get more picks, still get a major talent. So 4 may not be good enough to get who we want. I imagine a future 1st rounder will be on the table but I could see the Dolphins using their wealth of picks to move up just to ensure they get who they want.

[NewColtsFan]

33 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

We reaped 3 twos (2 of them high 2s) from the Jets to drop from 3 to 6.

 

What does everyone think the actual cost would be to get from 13 to 4?

And why do we want to move up to 4?

 

For our next quarterback?   Or do you want someone else? 

[chad72]

Our 1st, a future 1st and No.34, unfortunately.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

10 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Our 1st, a future 1st and No.34, unfortunately.

That isn’t bad. I don’t know why anyone would be against that if they feel one of the QB is the right one.

15 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

And why do we want to move up to 4?

 

For our next quarterback?   Or do you want someone else? 

If you want to try to get Love or Herbert you have to get ahead of the chargers.

[coltsfanej]

I would guess 13 both 2s this year and next year's 1. But I do not want to do that for Herbert or Love. If Tua's health checks out he'd be the only one worth the trade up IMO. 

[ztboiler]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

Our 1st, a future 1st and No.34, unfortunately.

Given the quality of the rest of our roster...and the possibility that next year’s 1st is in the 20’s, that feels like a doable price to me...for either Herbert or Tua.  

[pacolts56]

Lemme see if I get this straight......

 

Ballard parts with two 1st rounders and two 2nd rounders so we can watch one of these boom/bust QB prospects NOT NAMED Joe Burrow struggle thru the inevitable rookie growing pains.... and at the same time empty ourselves of early round draft capital until Round 2 NEXT YEAR that could be used to inject the team with the help we need at DT and other positions?

 

Even if Ballard were to.... equally uncharacteristically.... bust open the cap space piggy bank and sign Chris Jones, Yannick Ngakoue and Amari Cooper, that trade up scenario would still be foolishness, IMO.  

 

 

 

[Moosejawcolt]

39 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

Given the quality of the rest of our roster...and the possibility that next year’s 1st is in the 20’s, that feels like a doable price to me...for either Herbert or Tua.  

Quality of the roster?!!?  We r far from challenging the elite teams.  2 more drafts r needed

[Moosejawcolt]

1 minute ago, pacolts56 said:

Lemme see if I get this straight......

 

Ballard parts with two 1st rounders and two 2nd rounders so we can watch one of these boom/bust QB prospects NOT NAMED Joe Burrow struggle thru the inevitable rookie growing pains.... and at the same time empty ourselves of early round draft capital until Round 2 NEXT YEAR that could be used to inject the team with the help we need at DT and other positions?

 

Even if Ballard were to.... equally uncharacteristically.... bust open the cap space piggy bank and sign Chris Jones, Yannick Ngakoue and Amari Cooper, that trade up scenario would still be foolishness, JMO.  

 

 

 

And I am not even sold on Burrows.  Great year, but only one year.  I have a feeling he won't b that great....just a feeling

[Mel Kiper's Hair]

I think the price would be too high for Ballard and the Colts. I just don't see us moving all the way up to 4. I could be surprised come draft night but I don't think so.

[richard pallo]

2 hours ago, funktacious2 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if we have to go to 3. Lions have some hot seats and I really see them trading back to get more picks, still get a major talent. So 4 may not be good enough to get who we want. I imagine a future 1st rounder will be on the table but I could see the Dolphins using their wealth of picks to move up just to ensure they get who they want.

I think the Dolphins moving to 3 is going to happen. Win win for both teams. 

[ztboiler]

31 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Quality of the roster?!!?  We r far from challenging the elite teams.  2 more drafts r needed

We’d be drafting in the 20’s this year with serviceable kicking and QB play...

 

We now resume our regularly scheduled dramatic responses.

[Jdubu]

4 hours ago, ztboiler said:

We reaped 3 twos (2 of them high 2s) from the Jets to drop from 3 to 6.

 

What does everyone think the actual cost would be to get from 13 to 4?

It’s always about how bad two teams either want to move up or down. The trade sheet is a guideline and if a team absolutely wants a guy, he will be willing to overpay (see the saints draft for Ricky Williams). The same holds true, say a team really doesn’t want to stay in that third spot and he can’t find a partner willing to pay premium, that team will either opt to accept less or bite the bullet and take the pick.  Always some head scratchers when trades happen, just need the two team offers to match each other. 

[Clem-Dog]

1 hour ago, ztboiler said:

We’d be drafting in the 20’s this year with serviceable kicking and QB play...

 

We now resume our regularly scheduled dramatic responses.

 

Speaking of not being able to challenge elite teams we beat Tenn and KC.  I agree.  Our team is not as bad as some suggest.

[NewColtsFan]

4 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

That isn’t bad. I don’t know why anyone would be against that if they feel one of the QB is the right one.

If you want to try to get Love or Herbert you have to get ahead of the chargers.

For Herbert — maybe.

 

But for Love, not likely.   It’s not even clear he has a first round grade?    Now you want to trade up to 4?   Goodness gracious.   You believe every rumor, every story that’s out there.

 

The Calendar still says January.   Can we please wait and learn more information on the kid?    Please?

[BProland85]

Guys....we’re not moving up that far for any QB not named Burrow. Ballard likes his draft picks too much to give a majority of them away. 

[Colts_Fan12]

12 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Guys....we’re not moving up that far for any QB not named Burrow. Ballard likes his draft picks too much to give a majority of them away. 

how would you know?

[Dingus McGirt]

Love these discussions. 

 

Do they really mean much pre-combine/private pro days?

[Defjamz26]

There is no costs to move up to four.

 

 

Since he’s been a GM, Dave Gettleman has never EVER trades down. We’re not getting to four. 

[ztboiler]

25 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

There is no costs to move up to four.

 

 

Since he’s been a GM, Dave Gettleman has never EVER trades down. We’re not getting to four. 

Gettleman hasn’t lived long enough for you to make that statement...but you do make a great point...Gettleman strikes me as difficult to deal with and I hadn’t considered the trade partner in that regard.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 hours ago, BProland85 said:

Guys....we’re not moving up that far for any QB not named Burrow. Ballard likes his draft picks too much to give a majority of them away. 

He also said KC was brilliant to move up for Mahomes. He has never had to go after a QB. That goes out the window when your looking for a QB.

[stitches]

Here are some top 10 trades in recent years:

 

 2019:

- #10 for #20 + #52(2nd round pick) + future 3d round pick

 

2018:

- #7+#255(7th round pick) for #12+#53(2nd)+#56(2nd)

- #3 for #6 + #37(2nd)+#49(2nd)+future 2nd (this is our trade)

- #10 for #15+#79(3d)+152(5th)

 

2017:

- #12 for #25+future 1st (this is in case we want to trade back)

- #10 for #27+#91(3d) + future 1st(the Mahomes trade)

- #2 for #3 + #67(3d) + #111(4th)+future 3d

 

2016:

- #1 +#113(4th) + 177(6th) for #15 + #43(2nd) + #45(2nd) + #76(3d) + future 1st + future 3d

- #2 + future 4th for #8 + #77(3d) + #100(4th) + future 1st + future 2nd

- #8 for #15 + #76(3d) + future 2nd

- #9 for #11 + #106(4th)

 

2015: 

- #4 for #9 + #19 + #115(4th)

 

2014:

- #8 for #9 + #145(4th)

- #4 for #9 + future 1st + future 4th

 

2013: 

- #8 + #71(3d) for #16 + #46(2nd) + #78(3d) + #222(7th)

- #3 for #12 + #42(2nd)

 

Scrolling through those it seems like different years and different teams seem to get different types of return. In general though if I had to guess this is the general type of deal if we wanted to jump to some spots in the draft:

- Jump to 11 with Jets (in front of Oakland) - 3d or a 4th

- Jump to 8 with Arizona - 2nd

- Jump to 5 (with Detroit, if Detroit trades back from 3 with Miami who would be jumping for Tua) - future 1st + 3d this year ... or maybe both 2nds and future 3d, if they would prefer it?

- Jump to 3 with Detroit directly - future 1st + one of our seconds + future second?

[Barry Sears]

You sell the farm to get a QB at 4, if he's still available, and give up drafting potentially 2-3 starters for this coming season and possibly a first rounder next year?

 

That QB is not worth giving up that much.  As someone else said, we have too many other positions to upgrade and doing a crazy deal like this sets us back another 2 years IMO.

 

I say we stick with #13 pick and if a QB is there that Ballard likes A LOT, then draft him and we still have all of our picks afterward.

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, Barry Sears said:

You sell the farm to get a QB at 4, if he's still available, and give up drafting potentially 2-3 starters for this coming season and possibly a first rounder next year?

 

That QB is not worth giving up that much.  As someone else said, we have too many other positions to upgrade and doing a crazy deal like this sets us back another 2 years IMO.

The draft is not the only way to fill holes. Furthermore... the draft should be about acquiring talent, not about filling holes. We have free agency to fill holes and we have 90M of salary cap to use. No price is too big if the QB you draft pans out. 

[Barry Sears]

Just now, stitches said:

The draft is not the only way to fill holes. furthermore... the draft should be about acquiring talent, not about filling holes. We have free agency to fill holes and we have 90M of salary cap to use. No price is too big if the QB you draft pans out. 

 

That's the $64,000 question

[stitches]

1 minute ago, Barry Sears said:

 

That's the $64,000 question

The answer is - if the QB pans out, the price is worth it. If the QB doesn't pan out even if you don't trade up it still won't be worth it. In other words - the price almost doesn't matter - the correctness of your evaluation of the QB you take matters most. 

[Barry Sears]

Just now, stitches said:

The answer is - if the QB pans out, the price is worth it. If the QB doesn't pan out even if you don't trade up it still won't be worth it. In other words - the price almost doesn't matter - the correctness of your evaluation of the QB you take matters most. 

 

I agree on this point and trust Ballard and our scouts will have that correct evaluation.  They obviously know a whole lot more than we do.

[OffensivelyPC]

I'm hesitant to trade up that far.  Based on some of the past trades, I think the Bucs and Bills 2018 trade gives a solid precedent to work with.  So to me,  to jump to 4, it looks like we'd be looking at least 3 high picks, starting obviously with #13.  Given our current draft picks available, the other picks will probably be a '21 1st, and probably two  (I'm guessing pick two of three), the 2020 Redskins 2nd Rd, the 2020 Colts 2nd Rd., a 2021 future 1st Rd. and/or a 2021 2nd Rd.  Day 3 picks going either way can always help fill in any small gap in the negotiations and the value of picks always differ depending on how teams see the draft class strength.

 

Seems kind of hefty to me.  But if a QB is a guy you do'nt mind swinging for the fences on, you'll pay it.  If Ballard did that, people will start to turn on him the second they decide it doesn't pan out - not that he should care.  But that's a big career defining trade that can set a franchise back a few years if it you're wrong.  

[BProland85]

46 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

He also said KC was brilliant to move up for Mahomes. He has never had to go after a QB. That goes out the window when your looking for a QB.

Thank God you're not the GM of the Colts. We'd be giving up a balanced and talented team with our chest of draft picks to go after a boom or bust QB.  

[CantBeStopped]

The chiefs traded up 17 spots to select a raw prospect out of an Air Raid offense that barely ever works out in the NFL. Nobody knew what Mahomes would become. Love has many of the characteristics of Mahomes so how is he not worthy of trading up for?!

[ztboiler]

16 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

I'm hesitant to trade up that far.  Based on some of the past trades, I think the Bucs and Bills 2018 trade gives a solid precedent to work with.  So to me,  to jump to 4, it looks like we'd be looking at least 3 high picks, starting obviously with #13.  Given our current draft picks available, the other picks will probably be a '21 1st, and probably two  (I'm guessing pick two of three), the 2020 Redskins 2nd Rd, the 2020 Colts 2nd Rd., a 2021 future 1st Rd. and/or a 2021 2nd Rd.  Day 3 picks going either way can always help fill in any small gap in the negotiations and the value of picks always differ depending on how teams see the draft class strength.

 

Seems kind of hefty to me.  But if a QB is a guy you do'nt mind swinging for the fences on, you'll pay it.  If Ballard did that, people will start to turn on him the second they decide it doesn't pan out - not that he should care.  But that's a big career defining trade that can set a franchise back a few years if it you're wrong.  

It’s just as detrimental, if not moreso, to Ballard’s future as a GM if he plays it safe without a franchise QB.

 

He is paid to be right.  He’s said as much himself.  What we know for sure is that if he doesn’t think this year’s QB crop is his best opportunity then he will wait for a better one to push all-in on.

 

Ballard also knows that he’s built a good enough roster that he may never again draft high enough to get the QB he wants without mortgaging a bunch of draft capital 

[Colts_Fan12]

4 minutes ago, CantBeStopped said:

The chiefs traded up 17 spots to select a raw prospect out of an Air Raid offense that barely ever works out in the NFL. Nobody knew what Mahomes would become. Love has many of the characteristics of Mahomes so how is he not worthy of trading up for?!

our fans seem to have forgotten what the value of a QB actually is 

[IkeAramba]

This is the list of SuperBowl winning QBs since 1990:

 

1990 Joe Montana 3rd round

1991 Jeff Hostetler 3rd round

1992 Mark Rypien 6th round

1993 Troy Aikman 1/1

1994 Troy Aikman 1/1

1995 Steve Young USFL 1/11 NFL supplemental 1st

1996 Troy Aikman 1/1

1997 Brett Favre 2nd round + traded

1998 John Elway 1/1 + traded

1999 John Elway 1/1 + traded

2000 Kurt Warner UDFA

2001 Trent Dilfer 1/6 + free agent

2002 Tom Brady 6th round

2003 Brad Johnson 5th round + free agent

2004 Tom Brady 6th round

2005 Tom Brady 6th round

2006 Ben Roethlisberger 1/11

2007 Peyton Manning 1/1

2008 Eli Manning 1/1 + traded

2009 Ben Roethlisberger 1/11

2010 Drew Brees 2nd round + free agent

2011 Aaron Rodgers 1/24

2012 Eli Manning 1/1 + traded

2013 Joe Flacco 1/18

2014 Russell Wilson 3rd round

2015 Tom Brady 6th round

2016 Peyton Manning 1/1 + free agent

2017 Tom Brady 6th round

2018 Nick Foles 3rd round + free agent

2019 Tom Brady 6th round

 

While there are a few HoF QBs who went 1st overall (Aikman, Elway and the Manning brothers), the only other QBs on that list that we'd have had to trade up from 13 for are Ben Roethlisberger (11th) and Trent Dilfer (who was acquired via free agency anyway) and there are plenty of QBs on that list who were later round picks, traded for or picked up via free agency. 

 

Based on the history of the last 30 years, the question should be what would it cost to get us to 1 and is Burrow worth it?  Trading up to 4 seems far from certain to yield anything other than reduced draft capital for your GM in future years.

[Dingus McGirt]

1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

He also said KC was brilliant to move up for Mahomes. He has never had to go after a QB. That goes out the window when your looking for a QB.

"you're"  lolol  <ducks>

[pgt_rob]

Bet a lot of top draft stock for a QB that may not be worth a damn? Yikes, not sure I'd be going that route.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

1 minute ago, pgt_rob said:

Bet a lot of top draft stock for a QB that may not be worth a damn? Yikes, not sure I'd be going that route.

At some point you have to take a risk. Giving up one extra first round pick next year is not that much.

[CantBeStopped]

9 minutes ago, pgt_rob said:

Bet a lot of top draft stock for a QB that may not be worth a damn? Yikes, not sure I'd be going that route.

Why not? KC did it and look what they got

[IkeAramba]

5 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

At some point you have to take a risk. Giving up one extra first round pick next year is not that much.

 

http://www.footballperspective.com/teams-traded-up-for-a-1st-round-qb-16-times-from-2005-to-2017/ is an interesting read on trading up for a QB.  There are plenty of interesting names on that list.  The question is whether we'd get a Mahomes, a Wentz, a Manziel or a Gabbert if we traded up - there weren't too many names on that list that you'd consider a top 10 QB.

[BigQungus]

I hate everything about this idea