Tua to Enter 2020 Draft

[Vexed]

8 hours ago, Mitch Connors said:

Ok college player experts help me out...

 

If he didtn have this injury is he a franchise QB?

Im not a big college fan but Alabama QB's scare me. I cant think of one thats translated to the NFL. If Tua never had the injury does he translate?

Joe Namath

[Vexed]

3 hours ago, Cynjin said:

Hey, @NFLfan.  Odd that Tua would thank and honor someone as selfish and all about himself as Nick Saban, and Tua's brother is still playing there.  What are Tua and his brother's parents thinking?

 

If you get a chance there’s an interview with Saban and Belichick together on HBO as they are close friends and came up together. Saban was his DC in Cleveland. They are both interesting dudes and are much deeper than the post game interviews. 

[Superman]

I was wrong on this. Seemed like he was going back, but when I read he was doing a presser this morning I got the feeling he would declare. 

 

Good for him. It's kind of scary because his most meaningful medical checkup won't come for a few more weeks, and if his imaging doesn't look good it might scare teams off. I don't think anyone is worried about him potentially missing 2020, but if he winds up needing another operation or something like that, it could get messy.

[aaron11]

im not scared of his injury i hope we can land him here

[aaron11]

13 hours ago, pgt_rob said:

After Ballard's presser, I've just got the hunch that he's going to roll with Brissett and not force himself to pick a QB prospect no matter the case. I'm kinda leaning towards that in a way as well. I could see Ballard eye balling some DT talent at #13 to bolster the D-Line a bit more.

tua would not be a reach at our pick, i dont think taking a very good qb would be forcing it

 

 

[pgt_rob]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

tua would not be a reach at our pick, i dont think taking a very good qb would be forcing it

 

 

 

I'm just assuming he isn't there at our #13.

[Valpo2004]

12 hours ago, Stephen said:

I think love, burrow,  Hubert and tua may all be gone by the 13th pick

 

It is certainly possible.  Love is the only one who might fall to 13.  

 

But I'm also remembering that Josh Allen who was a similar prospect to Love, (High potential, developmental, small school) went in the top 10.  The only difference is that I don't think the guys that went before Josh Allen where as good of prospects as Burrow and Tua are.  

[Valpo2004]

18 hours ago, EastStreet said:

TL is better, and JF is likely better, so he'd have been 3rd or 4th next year (Daniels is trending up). 

 

On the docs, nah.... Can't speak for all the NFL docs, but I've known 2 in my years. The ones I've talked to are risk averse, as are the teams. Double and triple checking given the environment the last 10 years with CTEs. Players are more inclined to lie, than docs trying to push them into action. That's not to say that docs don't try to get the guys game ready though, as that's their job. 

 

And to add, with QBs, they are very cautious, especially the starters and highly drafted.

 

There have been a couple of instances recently where team docs would tell a player he doesn't need surgery and try to push them back out there and the player would go see his own doctor and his doctor would tell him to get surgery. 

 

I would say team docs probably are not going to risk your playing career too much, especially if you are a young drafted player.  But if you signed with the team as a free agent and are at the end of your career, I would say they are less concerned.  

 

And I'm nearly convinced that they will send you back out there even if they know that doing so risks you having long term pain after your career is over.

 

 

[stitches]

 

 

Quote

 

Tua Tagovailoa is every bit a franchise QB prospect

 

 

Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa announced he would forego his remaining eligibility and declare for the 2020 NFL Draft on Monday. If it wasn’t for a gruesome hip dislocation suffered before the end of the half against Mississippi State earlier this year, the announcement would have been a formality. The injury though throws a wrench into his draft prospects and NFL career. Let’s take a look at where exactly he stands on the football field and which teams should be vying for his services in late April.

You can debate the merits of who is more desperately in need of a franchise quarterback, but the odds are if Tagovailoa is given a clean bill of health come draft time, he’ll be heading to one of these teams picking in the top half of Round 1.

 

5. Miami Dolphins

6. Los Angeles Chargers

7. Carolina Panthers

9. Jacksonville Jaguars

13. Indianapolis Colts

 

...

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Colts could do much worse than Jacoby Brissett under center, but they could also do much better. He earned a 62.6 passing grade as a starter in 2017 and a 58.1 this past season. The latter figure ranked 26th out of the 27 quarterbacks who took at least 350 dropbacks this season. GM Chris Ballard has had the opposite approach to the draft though than what it would take for Indianapolis to secure Tua. They’ve traded backward in the first-round each of the past two seasons with their latest swap with the Washington Redskins netting them the 34th overall pick in this year’s draft. The need is obvious, but don’t expect Ballard to break character even with the most valuable position in football at play.

 

All those teams above could draft Tua, but should they draft Tua is the real question? The short answer: yes. Here’s why.

 

....

 

I were to break down quarterbacking into the most important macro-level traits, they’d be the following (in order of importance):

 

+Accuracy

+Decision Making 

+Pocket Presence

+Arm Strength

 

For Tagovailoa, he knocks three out of four of those traits out of the park. Let’s dive into each.

 

ACCURACY

This is Tagovailoa’s calling card. Back in 2018, he had the highest percentage of passes charted with perfect ball placement of any Power-5 quarterback. Yes, higher than number one pick Kyler Murray. Joe Burrow and Jake Fromm bested him in that regard this season, but Tagovailoa was still elite from an accuracy standpoint in 2019. What’s maybe more impressive, though, is that he rarely misses throws entirely. Only 20.1% of this throws past the line of scrimmage were deemed uncatchably inaccurate. That ranked fourth among Power-5 quarterbacks. Those are pretty darn good accuracy figures to have when projecting to the NFL.

 

DECISION MAKING

Avoiding costly mistakes with the football is something Tagovailoa has done better than any prospect in recent memory. On 781 career dropbacks, Tagovailoa has only 24 turnover-worthy plays. It’s also something he’s improved upon every year unlike recent prospects like Deshaun Watson or Sam Darnold who had large spikes in their final college seasons. He made only six turnover-worthy plays in all of 2019 before being injured. That 3.1% career turnover-worthy play rate puts him in great company among the career rates for recent first-rounders.

 

POCKET PRESENCE

This is arguably Tagovailoa’s most impressive trait given his age. True juniors are not supposed to have the pocket manipulation skills that Tagovailoa has displayed over his career. It’s something that Burrow notably took a big step forward in from 2018 to 2019, but Tua has been unfazed by pressure in the pocket nearly his entire college career. He not only had a 105.0 passer rating when faced with pressure the past two seasons, but he also only converted pressure to sacks 13.2% of the time. The latter is an elite figure for a college quarterback and puts him in company with guys like Patrick Mahomes (11.4%), Drew Brees (12.4%) and Tom Brady (14.1%) in the NFL.

 

ARM STRENGTH

This is the one trait that will get picked apart by evaluators all spring. Tagovailoa’s arm strength is on the low end for NFL standards and can only get worse with his hip injury robbing him of some torque in his lower half. He’s had one pass his entire college career travel 50-plus yards downfield. That throw, shown below, was an interception against LSU in 2018 and looked as if it was everything Tagovailoa had in the tank. 

 

 

From release to landing spot is still comfortably under 60 yards on that throw. There are quarterbacks with weaker arms starting in the league, but we’d be lying if we said it wasn’t a concern.

 

The biggest piece of the quarterback puzzle, though, isn’t really a trait at all. It’s simply how you’ve produced on the football field. While there’s no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL draft, Tagovailoa has dominated college football so unprecedentedly in his tenure at Alabama that you’d be overthinking it to not view him as a franchise-type QB prospect if healthy. What stands out about Tagovailoa when compared to some other prospects in recent years is how much better he was at an earlier age. Not only have we never seen prolonged stretches of bad football from Tua, but we also saw high-level play from him dating back to his true freshman year. Burrow didn’t grade out like an elite quarterback until he was in his age 23 season, Murray was 21 when he broke out last year and Baker Mayfield was 20 in his first year as a starter for Oklahoma. Tua, on the other hand, was 19 when he came in the second half to lead Alabama to a win over Georgia as a true freshman in the National Championship and earned a 72.3 overall grade on 29 dropbacks. 

 

We’ve seen nothing but elite-level play from him since in the most difficult conference in America. His career passing grade is 91.7. Of course that’s not the end all be all, but on-field production is obviously something we feel strongly about being the best indicator of success at the next level.

 

If there is any on-field red flag for Tagovailoa, it’s that he was surrounded by one of the most absurd collections of talent in college football history. This past season, he very well could have been throwing to three future first-round wideouts while being protected by two first-round tackles. A lot of QBs could have put up absurd stats with the help Tua had around him. That’s how you get games like South Carolina earlier this season where Tua went 28-36 for 444 yards and five touchdowns with no picks earning a middling 71.5 passing grade. 81.5% of his yards in that game came after the catch.   

 

For the season, Tua only connected on 31 passes 15-plus yards downfield. For comparison, here’s how many the recent first-round QBs had their final year of college.

 

Only Josh Allen and Daniel Jones had fewer and neither has been particularly impressive downfield passers in the league yet. While one of the hallmarks of a great quarterback is taking what the defense gives you, he’s not exactly alleviating arm strength concerns with that figure.

 

We’ve made it this far without even discussing the elephant in the room. Tagovailoa’s hip injury is very serious and career-threatening. We’re not trained medical professionals here at PFF, but after consulting with one, it’s clear that Tagovailoa could have complications pop up in the coming months that could end his career through no fault of his own or doctors. Avascular necrosis of his hip’s ball joint could develop at any time over the next 4-6 months following his injury resulting in the death of that bone. Any team debating selecting Tagovailoa will obviously have to thoroughly vet his recovery. But assuming he makes a complete recovery, we have far fewer concerns with his on-field play. Tagovailoa is a franchise quarterback prospect and any team in need of a quarterback at the top of the draft should be willing to part ways with a few extra draft picks to secure his services.

 

 

[Valpo2004]

18 hours ago, Mitch Connors said:

Ok college player experts help me out...

 

If he didtn have this injury is he a franchise QB?

Im not a big college fan but Alabama QB's scare me. I cant think of one thats translated to the NFL. If Tua never had the injury does he translate?

 

It's hard to know for certain on anything but he looks like one.

 

People keep talking about Alabama QB's but they keep missing out on an important factor.  None of the Alabama QB's where highly touted talents.  No one ever asks where all the franchise QB's from LSU are (Burrow), or Utah (Love).

 

In fact Herbert scares me more than Tua because there have been recent highly touted 1st round QB's from Oregon that have busted in the NFL.

 

But with Alabama that's not the case.  All their recent guys where low round picks who where never expected to be franchise QB's in the first place.  They where universally understood to just be game managers on a college offense that used it's superior OL and good running backs to run everyone over.  

 

Tua could bust and the injuries are a legit concern, especially when you add in that he's a bit on the small side for a NFL QB.  But there is no legit concern about his school.  Yes they have had several QB's drafted recently but all of them where day 3 picks, often only there because they won so much in college.  (For some reason QB's and only QB's get credits in the draft for being on a college team that wins a lot.)

 

If anyone thought there was a good chance of them being franchise QB's they wouldn't have fallen to day 3.  

 

So Tua is different in that respect.  

 

 

[aaron11]

15 hours ago, John Waylon said:

Our last three franchise QBs have been lost to injury.

 

thats how most careers end.  playing until 40 is not the norm at all

[John Waylon]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

 

thats how most careers end.  playing until 40 is not the norm at all

Not when it comes to top 10 active franchise QBs. Which I think you’ll find Irsay wants to have as they market the team to the public. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Colts play on a hard surface at LOS. I can’t imagine how hard that would be on him. He has had so many injuries imagine him on that hard turf.

[aaron11]

37 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

Not when it comes to top 10 active franchise QBs. Which I think you’ll find Irsay wants to have as they market the team to the public. 

a perfect pro ready prospect isnt going to fall to us, we will have to take some kind of chance

 

we wont be drafting in the top 5 any time soon. he is expected to recover and never missed a game until the end of this year

 

[BleedBlu8792]

34 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

Colts play on a hard surface at LOS. I can’t imagine how hard that would be on him. He has had so many injuries imagine him on that hard turf.

 

Or maybe it's because they play a hard hitting, violent, sport....?

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

31 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

a perfect pro ready prospect isnt going to fall to us, we will have to take some kind of chance

 

we wont be drafting in the top 5 any time soon. he is expected to recover and never missed a game until the end of this year

 

Most QB entering the draft have a flaw. 

[MPStack]

20 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

Or maybe it's because they play a hard hitting, violent, sport....?

The Colts don’t exactly have a history of being a healthy bunch, Tua would fit right in. 

[BProland85]

1 hour ago, Chloe6124 said:

Colts play on a hard surface at LOS. I can’t imagine how hard that would be on him. He has had so many injuries imagine him on that hard turf.

I really hope Irsay looks into improving the field turf at Lucas Oil very soon so injuries aren't as much an issue on that harder surface. 

[Luck 4 president]

Tua will go top 5, maybe even top 3. Slim chance we even have a shot at him. He probably has the most accurate deep ball in the draft and has great field vision. I think he’d work well in our offense despite his size 

[BleedBlu8792]

1 hour ago, MPStack said:

The Colts don’t exactly have a history of being a healthy bunch, Tua would fit right in. 

 

True, but I wouldn't blame it on the field. The astroturf of the 90's/early 2000's was worse. 

[HarryTheCat]

On 1/6/2020 at 1:08 PM, Valpo2004 said:

 

Healthwise the only smart move would be to never play football again. 

 

Financially however it was the only smart move.  Pretty much all risk and zero reward in staying.  

That makes the most sense for Tua. He may never be able to stay healthy enough to play at a high level again -- or even play at all -- but he will probably be cashing first round paychecks for a year or so. Some QB-desperate GM out there will take a chance on him. I just hope that GM isn't Ballard.

[ColtsBlueFL]

On 1/6/2020 at 1:35 PM, EastStreet said:

not shocked....

it was the only smart move both health wise, and financially.

 

Financially, yes.

 

On 1/6/2020 at 1:54 PM, lollygagger8 said:

His injury history is awfully scary 

 

Yes. I expect his 'range of motion' of the hip at the combine will be top priority, and possibly determine whether he is top 10 pick (full or near full rasnge) or drops to 10-25 area (50% or so ROM) on his hip. He also has 2 ankle injuries. His next injury could be costly, career wise so get paid now.

 

On 1/6/2020 at 2:05 PM, Valpo2004 said:

There is good odds that someone will trade up with Washington, the Giants, or the Lions in order to jump the Dolphins.  In fact the Dolphins might have to spend some capital to trade up themselves just to avoid getting jumped.  

 

Medicals at combine will be key...

 

Quote

He is making the right decision for himself.  You can always go back to college to finish your degree.  But that multi million dollar pay-day might not be there next year.  He takes another major injury and he likely falls to the 2nd round.

 

Or lower. Agreed.

 

On 1/6/2020 at 2:14 PM, EastStreet said:

 

At least now, he gets NFL doctors, and NFL dollars should he get hurt. He's basically going to get paid all next season to "rehab" with some of the best docs in the country.

 

Once drafted to a team, pretty much. However... there are rules in the CBA about how/when a player can get/use practitioners outside team medical staff and have the team pay for it.  For the studious here, read Article 39 (pages 171-173) here for all rules regarding injuries/treatment etc...

 

https://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/collective-bargaining-agreement-2011-2020.pdf

 

 

On 1/6/2020 at 2:53 PM, Four2itus said:

Listened to David Chow speak on him. Essentially, this injury at best, involves a shortened career because of the lack of blood flow to the injured area. 

 

 

Darn, missed it. Was it on SiriusXM, probably Movin' the Chains?  From what you mention, I'm fairly certain he was addressing the potential for AVN (avascular necrosis) resulting in damge/death of the articular cartilage on the ball of the hip joint. Hopefully (for the kid and his career) that does not materialize.

 

What will materialize at some point sooner or later - probably sooner, is degenerative arthritis. This can also shorten his playing career. I'm sure Dr. Chao addressed this potential as well if his interview segment was long enough. I feel bad in that there is a pretty good chance this guy will never be a 10 year or longer franchise QB. And I'm a generally positive guy (always hopeful and typically 'cautiously optimistic' at worst, until it works... or finally doesn't) in the techniques and efforts in the continually advancing healthcare field.

 

 

[EastStreet]

6 hours ago, Valpo2004 said:

 

There have been a couple of instances recently where team docs would tell a player he doesn't need surgery and try to push them back out there and the player would go see his own doctor and his doctor would tell him to get surgery. 

 

I would say team docs probably are not going to risk your playing career too much, especially if you are a young drafted player.  But if you signed with the team as a free agent and are at the end of your career, I would say they are less concerned.  

 

And I'm nearly convinced that they will send you back out there even if they know that doing so risks you having long term pain after your career is over.

I think there is a difference in playing with pain, and playing with risk of worsening injury. 

Most of what I've seen are docs/teams asking players who have injuries that can't get any worse, play through the pain. Most players want to do that anyway. 

 

Long term pain is something every player knows they will experience post career, and every player should consult with their own docs on every situation. I wouldn't trust team docs at all to have my best interests at heart. That said, I don't think it's as bad as you think.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Financially, yes.

 

Once drafted to a team, pretty much. However... there are rules in the CBA about how/when a player can get/use practitioners outside team medical staff and have the team pay for it.  For the studious here, read Article 39 (pages 171-173) here for all rules regarding injuries/treatment etc...

 

https://nfllabor.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/collective-bargaining-agreement-2011-2020.pdf

 

 

Sure there are rules, but with the combined support of the NFL, and his newly acquired personal wealth, he'll definitely be in a better position to get whatever support he desires contrasted to the limitations of Bama med staff (which is likely one of the best in CFB).

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

 

Yes. I expect his 'range of motion' of the hip at the combine will be top priority, and possibly determine whether he is top 10 pick (full or near full rasnge) or drops to 10-25 area (50% or so ROM) on his hip. He also has 2 ankle injuries. His next injury could be costly, career wise so get paid now.

 

If he does not have near full range of motion, he may not even get drafted in the first round, but I would expect that he will, or have a clear and definite prognosis that he will very shortly. 

 

The thinking was that if the medicals looked negative or unclear during this short window of draft declaration, he would return to school.  That would give him time to heal. (of course, it would risk another injury).  He would make much more money next year when healed and back to normal than if the medicals were less than clear this draft.  That's how far he was expected to drop.

 

So, IMO, since he has declared that means that he hasn't gotten a pretty clean bill of health and his draft stock should stay about where it was before the hip injury.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

There is a possibility he will be able to throw at the combine. They even said limited physical activity may be allowed by then. He didn’t have much of a limp at the presser yesterday.

[ColtsBlueFL]

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

I think there is a difference in playing with pain, and playing with risk of worsening injury. 

Most of what I've seen are docs/teams asking players who have injuries that can't get any worse, play through the pain. Most players want to do that anyway. 

 

True.

 

OTOH, there are also players that are in a situation where they want to 'be out there' and an injury could notably exacerbate the current damage a player is recovering from.  When all the scenarios are explained and the outcomes and issues from all scenarios are discussed especially a further injury sustained, that is called 'informed consent'.  And knowing the risks and scenarios and %'s explained, sometimes the player still elects to play. And the GM/coach is made aware. My best guess is JJ Watt was possibly one such scenario this past weekend.

 

1 hour ago, EastStreet said:

Long term pain is something every player knows they will experience post career, and every player should consult with their own docs on every situation. I wouldn't trust team docs at all to have my best interests at heart. That said, I don't think it's as bad as you think.

 

I agree with second opinions, and that teams may at times put 'pressure' on their medical teams.

I feel it is advisable healthcare workers (notably Physicians, PA's, Nurses...) to observe-

 

https://owlspace-ccm.rice.edu/access/content/user/ecy1/Nazi Human Experimentation/Pages/Hippocratic Oath-modern.html

 

As far as prognosis, it is too early still.  Bring this up at draft time and we'll discuss further.

 

Many team docs are hired as a side to their private practice.  Example- one of the most famous orthopods, Dr. James Andrews, has these sports teams affiliations:

 

At present, Dr. Andrews serves as Co–Medical Director for Intercollegiate Sports at Auburn University. He is Senior Orthopaedic Consultant for Intercollegiate Athletics at the University of Alabama. He is the orthopaedic consultant for the athletic teams of Troy University, University of West Alabama, Tuskegee University and Grambling University. He is also the Senior Consultant for the Washington Redskins.

 

25 minutes ago, DougDew said:

If he does not have near full range of motion, he may not even get drafted in the first round, but I would expect that he will, or have a clear and definite prognosis that he will very shortly. 

 

He will have a continuously evolving prognosis.  I truly believe he will not be able to work out (notably in full) before the draft. Teams will have to use the draft physical exams, imaging tests, and notes and progress reports in his medical records.

 

25 minutes ago, DougDew said:

The thinking was that if the medicals looked negative or unclear during this short window of draft declaration, he would return to school.  That would give him time to heal. (of course, it would risk another injury).  He would make much more money next year when healed and back to normal than if the medicals were less than clear this draft.  That's how far he was expected to drop.

 

So, IMO, since he has declared that means that he hasn't gotten a pretty clean bill of health and his draft stock should stay about where it was before the hip injury.

 

I disagree. There's no good reason to return to college based upon his injury, IMO. He's on borrowed time.  Declare, get rehab and healthy, and then try to get to that 2nd contract ASAP.

 

Sadly, I doubt this guy has a very long career.  And I'm usually not 'that guy', and hope I'm wrong.

[Cynjin]

17 hours ago, Vexed said:

Joe Namath

 

Ken Stabler too, but nothing fairly recent.

[EastStreet]

46 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

True.

 

OTOH, there are also players that are in a situation where they want to 'be out there' and an injury could notably exacerbate the current damage a player is recovering from.  When all the scenarios are explained and the outcomes and issues from all scenarios are discussed especially a further injury sustained, that is called 'informed consent'.  And knowing the risks and scenarios and %'s explained, sometimes the player still elects to play. And the GM/coach is made aware. My best guess is JJ Watt was possibly one such scenario this past weekend.

I have zero problem with informed consent. Players at the end of the day need to make their own calls. I hated in the past when players were shelved due to "medical" when it was really nothing serious, and more about not playing performance bonuses. Every player should be in control of their own destiny and career. Even it's something like Ebron was rumored to have done. It's a business on both sides. 

46 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

I agree with second opinions, and that teams may at times put 'pressure' on their medical teams.

I feel it is advisable healthcare workers (notably Physicians, PA's, Nurses...) to observe-

 

https://owlspace-ccm.rice.edu/access/content/user/ecy1/Nazi Human Experimentation/Pages/Hippocratic Oath-modern.html

 

As far as prognosis, it is too early still.  Bring this up at draft time and we'll discuss further.

 

Many team docs are hired as a side to their private practice.  Example- one of the most famous orthopods, Dr. James Andrews, has these sports teams affiliations:

 

At present, Dr. Andrews serves as Co–Medical Director for Intercollegiate Sports at Auburn University. He is Senior Orthopaedic Consultant for Intercollegiate Athletics at the University of Alabama. He is the orthopaedic consultant for the athletic teams of Troy University, University of West Alabama, Tuskegee University and Grambling University. He is also the Senior Consultant for the Washington Redskins.

 

My sports doc back in the 80s worked for my HS, a local college, and the Colts. I had an abdominal strain where they hooked me up to electrodes lol... Great guy. Had me back in action quickly, but wasn't pressed. 

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

True.

 

OTOH, there are also players that are in a situation where they want to 'be out there' and an injury could notably exacerbate the current damage a player is recovering from.  When all the scenarios are explained and the outcomes and issues from all scenarios are discussed especially a further injury sustained, that is called 'informed consent'.  And knowing the risks and scenarios and %'s explained, sometimes the player still elects to play. And the GM/coach is made aware. My best guess is JJ Watt was possibly one such scenario this past weekend.

 

 

I agree with second opinions, and that teams may at times put 'pressure' on their medical teams.

I feel it is advisable healthcare workers (notably Physicians, PA's, Nurses...) to observe-

 

https://owlspace-ccm.rice.edu/access/content/user/ecy1/Nazi Human Experimentation/Pages/Hippocratic Oath-modern.html

 

As far as prognosis, it is too early still.  Bring this up at draft time and we'll discuss further.

 

Many team docs are hired as a side to their private practice.  Example- one of the most famous orthopods, Dr. James Andrews, has these sports teams affiliations:

 

At present, Dr. Andrews serves as Co–Medical Director for Intercollegiate Sports at Auburn University. He is Senior Orthopaedic Consultant for Intercollegiate Athletics at the University of Alabama. He is the orthopaedic consultant for the athletic teams of Troy University, University of West Alabama, Tuskegee University and Grambling University. He is also the Senior Consultant for the Washington Redskins.

 

 

He will have a continuously evolving prognosis.  I truly believe he will not be able to work out (notably in full) before the draft. Teams will have to use the draft physical exams, imaging tests, and notes and progress reports in his medical records.

 

 

I disagree. There's no good reason to return to college based upon his injury, IMO. He's on borrowed time.  Declare, get rehab and healthy, and then try to get to that 2nd contract ASAP.

 

Sadly, I doubt this guy has a very long career.  And I'm usually not 'that guy', and hope I'm wrong.

I think it was a matter of where he thought he would be drafted if still injured, relative to where he would be drafted when fully healthy next year.  If he could get money this year while having an unclear prognosis, he'd do it, but I think the rumor was that his draft stock would suffer materially if the medicals were unclear.  

 

All moot now.  He declared.  The medical reports are good enough for him to be a first rounder.

[ColtsBlueFL]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

All moot now.  He declared. 

 

Yes, and a smart move.

 

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

The medical reports are good enough for him to be a first rounder.

 

How do you and anyone else know right now?  It's too early, for one. Lets look again in March. And after his full physical, MRI scans, etc... at the combine.

 

He suffered injury Nov. 16, 2019. This is from an article recently-

 

"The quarterback stressed that the three-month and four-month mark will be important benchmarks for his progress."

 

But declaring was smart in any scenario. The rest is 'Que sera, sera...'

[DougDew]

 Tagovailoa’s arm strength is on the low end for NFL standards and can only get worse with his hip injury robbing him of some torque in his lower half. He’s had one pass his entire college career travel 50-plus yards downfield. That throw, shown below, was an interception against LSU in 2018 and looked as if it was everything Tagovailoa had in the tank. 

 

Back in 2018, he had the highest percentage of passes charted with perfect ball placement of any Power-5 quarterback. Yes, higher than number one pick Kyler Murray. Joe Burrow and Jake Fromm bested him in that regard this season, but Tagovailoa was still elite from an accuracy standpoint in 2019. 

 

Not a huge downfield threat, but with good decision making, accuracy, and pocket presence,  sounds like a great fit for Reich's offense and a step up from JB because of short and medium ball accuracy.  Maybe Fromm sounds better.

 

Tua is pick 3, and Fromm is barely a 2nd rounder on some boards?  

[aaron11]

15 hours ago, HarryTheCat said:

That makes the most sense for Tua. He may never be able to stay healthy enough to play at a high level again -- or even play at all -- but he will probably be cashing first round paychecks for a year or so. Some QB-desperate GM out there will take a chance on him. I just hope that GM isn't Ballard.

doctors think he will be fine.  

[aaron11]

17 hours ago, Chloe6124 said:

Most QB entering the draft have a flaw. 

i was talking about being pro ready which tua is except for the injury.  love isnt that

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

2 hours ago, aaron11 said:

i was talking about being pro ready which tua is except for the injury.  love isnt that

No rookie QB is pro ready in my opinion.  

[HarryTheCat]

5 hours ago, aaron11 said:

doctors think he will be fine.  

There is a huge difference between "doctors think he will be fine", and "doctors are certain that he will be fine".  He might be fine. And he might not be fine. 

[aaron11]

5 minutes ago, HarryTheCat said:

There is a huge difference between "doctors think he will be fine", and "doctors are certain that he will be fine".  He might be fine. And he might not be fine. 

you could say that about most surgeries, i like the prognosis here they dont usually give 100%s for anything 

 

 

[BleedBlu8792]

7 hours ago, DougDew said:

Tua is pick 3, and Fromm is barely a 2nd rounder on some boards?  

 

I don't know, maybe because most analysts don't view Alex Smith 2.0 as a possible franchise QB....?

[ColtsBlueFL]

6 hours ago, aaron11 said:

doctors think he will be fine.  

 

Yes, pretty in the same vein that the Jets org. (and even their fans for once!!) thought Vernon Gholston would be fine after taking him #6 on draft day 2008 as well. You do not know for sure until it ultimately plays out.

 

48 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

you could say that about most surgeries, i like the prognosis here they dont usually give 100%s for anything

First, there is a lengthy and complicated recovery process involved.  He will need a good PT, and dedication to the rehab process.

 

Here's something (Orthopaedic Surgeon quote) to ponder-

 

“Even with the perfect surgery and all that kind of stuff, there are still some sort of questions about the outcome and that he doesn’t have any of the complications that can come with it,” Dr. Walt Lowe, the chief of orthopaedic surgery at Memorial Hermann in Houston, where Tagovailoa underwent his surgery"

 

“We’re all eternal optimists as surgeons that take care of these guys, (but) I always tell my fellows — and this is a little tongue-in-cheek — that it’s better to have great genes than a great surgeon, though it's best if you have both,” Lowe added. “And this is one of those situations that even with a great surgeon and a great surgical result, you don’t know the outcome of it for a while.”

 

Dr Chao makes a comparison to a field goal. You need a very good snap (surgery).You then need a good catch and place hold (Physical Therapist), finally a good kick (dedicated player following rehab schedule tightly and fast healing genetic makeup.

 

To that, I add, you just do not know if you can chalk up 3 points anywhere in that scenario until all 3 finish and you see the result. In either instance.

 

My hope is he does not develop AVN, but he will suffer degenerative arthritis at some point, and much more quickly than the average player.  GM's will be questioning his ability level after rehab. Others will be wary of another re-injury (See Dennis Pitta)

 

Fortunately, his hip accident was low speed (not like that of a fast moving vehicle accident), and the Docs reduced the dislocation quickly on site (key to restore blood flow to the femoral head).

 

I am, cautiously 'somewhat' optimistic. And I hope it's even better than I feel.

 

 

[coltsblue1844]

29 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

I don't know, maybe because most analysts don't view Alex Smith 2.0 as a possible franchise QB....?

 

Or maybe teams just fall in love with another player's "potential" to be better... as in Fromm will be a franchise QB with a very high floor but probably not as high of a ceiling...but someone like Love or Tua may have a much higher ceiling, that gets a team really interested in POTENTIAL...but they could also become another bust drafted for their high ceiling, while Fromm has a 15 year career as a good quality starting QB