Tua to Enter 2020 Draft

[BleedBlu8792]

6 minutes ago, coltsblue1844 said:

 

Or maybe teams just fall in love with another player's "potential" to be better... as in Fromm will be a franchise QB with a very high floor but probably not as high of a ceiling...but someone like Love or Tua may have a much higher ceiling, that gets a team really interested in POTENTIAL...but they could also become another bust drafted for their high ceiling, while Fromm has a 15 year career as a good quality starting QB

 

 

 

Cool... but I wasn't talking about the teams view. Who I quoted was referring to why Fromm is lower on draft analysts boards..

 

[DougDew]

43 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

I don't know, maybe because most analysts don't view Alex Smith 2.0 as a possible franchise QB....?

That really doesn't say anything.

 

Where does that analysis come from? 

 

What I just quoted basically said that Fromm has more elite accuracy that Tua, and Tua also does not have a strong arm and not many down the field attempts.  Tua has an injury history, Fromm does not.  Fromm has as much command of an offense and leadership as probably any QB probably coming out.  They both benefited from great personnel around them

 

Just trying to break in down into what area(s) Tua is supposedly so much better at than Fromm as to deserve pick #3 consideration where as Fromm round 3 in some circles. 

  

[coltsblue1844]

10 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

 

 

Cool... but I wasn't talking about the teams view. Who I quoted was referring to why Fromm is lower on draft analysts boards..

 

 

The way that you replied and called him Alex Smith 2.0, begs to differ... either way, even with Alex Smith in his prime, i would be happy... he was a great QB for the Chiefs, he just had to play all of the great QBs of that era (Peyton, Brady, Rivers, Brees etc)

Much like the 90s Pacers had to play MJ  in his prime...the 97, 98 and 99 Pacers couldve all won a ring, but they just couldnt get past MJ... Similar to Alex Smith in KC

[BleedBlu8792]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

That really doesn't say anything.

 

Where does that analysis come from? 

 

What I just quoted basically said that Fromm has more elite accuracy that Tua, and Tua also does not have a strong arm and not many down the field attempts.  Tua has an injury history, Fromm does not.  Fromm has as much command of an offense and leadership as probably any QB probably coming out.  They both benefited from great personnel around them

 

Just trying to break in down into what area(s) Tua is supposedly so much better at than Fromm as to deserve pick #3 consideration where as Fromm round 3 in some circles. 

  

 

Here are the passing charts from 2018. They make it more fair for Fromm, because Tua was on pace to be even better this year and Jake regressed. I'll let you make up your own mind from what you see.... 

 

 

 

 

 

CLEARLY one can push the ball up the field and is accurate doing it. The other is great up to around 10 yards and then progressively drops off the further down field he goes. Tua is just as good going to either side of the field whereas Fromm has issues going to his weakside of the field. 

[BleedBlu8792]

55 minutes ago, coltsblue1844 said:

 

The way that you replied and called him Alex Smith 2.0, begs to differ... either way, even with Alex Smith in his prime, i would be happy... he was a great QB for the Chiefs, he just had to play all of the great QBs of that era (Peyton, Brady, Rivers, Brees etc)

Much like the 90s Pacers had to play MJ  in his prime...the 97, 98 and 99 Pacers couldve all won a ring, but they just couldnt get past MJ... Similar to Alex Smith in KC

 

Yea, I wouldn't be, and I don't think many around here would be either. 

[DougDew]

14 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

Here are the passing charts from 2018. They make it more fair for Fromm, because Tua was on pace to be even better this year and Jake regressed. I'll let you make up your own mind from what you see.... 

 

 

 

 

 

CLEARLY one can push the ball up the field and is accurate doing it. The other is great up to around 10 yards and then progressively gets bad. Tua is just as good going to either side of the field whereas Fromm has issues going to his weakside of the field. 

Agreed the chart looks better for Tua than Fromm.

 

Maybe I'm not reading it right.  Why does Tua seem to have gobs more passing attempts, even 3 times or more as many pass attempts in the short middle boxes?

 

Curious, where do/did Tua's WRs, which are down the field players,  get drafted and where do/did Fromm's?  Any charts on that?

[DougDew]

4 hours ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

Here are the passing charts from 2018. They make it more fair for Fromm, because Tua was on pace to be even better this year and Jake regressed. I'll let you make up your own mind from what you see.... 

 

 

 

 

 

CLEARLY one can push the ball up the field and is accurate doing it. The other is great up to around 10 yards and then progressively drops off the further down field he goes. Tua is just as good going to either side of the field whereas Fromm has issues going to his weakside of the field. 

Couldn't edit my post but wanted to make this point.

 

Tua has three WRs: Jeudy, Ruggs, and DaVontae Smith (going back to bama) who would/will probably all be top 60 picks this spring.  All three on the same team.  That may be unprecedented in the history of college football teams.  IIRC Calvin Ridley went pretty high a few seasons ago. 

 

Contrast that with UGA, who has none, and to my knowledge, has not had a successful WR drafted since Julio Jones.  Their RBs get drafted high, Chubb, Michel, Gurley; but not their receivers.

 

Certainly this isn't an equalizer, but my goodness, its such a huge disparity that it must be accounted for in some way.

[ColtsBlueFL]

On 1/6/2020 at 4:55 PM, pgt_rob said:

After Ballard's presser, I've just got the hunch that he's going to roll with Brissett and not force himself to pick a QB prospect no matter the case. I'm kinda leaning towards that in a way as well. I could see Ballard eye balling some DT talent at #13 to bolster the D-Line a bit more.

 

Hopefully a generational 3 technique...

 

On 1/7/2020 at 6:47 AM, aaron11 said:

im not scared of his injury i hope we can land him here

 

 

 

But I so much hope not...

 

 

Maybe he can have a great 4 years and decent 6... maybe.

[BleedBlu8792]

2 hours ago, DougDew said:

Couldn't edit my post but wanted to make this point.

 

Tua has three WRs: Jeudy, Ruggs, and DaVontae Smith (going back to bama) who would/will probably all be top 60 picks this spring.  All three on the same team.  That may be unprecedented in the history of college football teams.  IIRC Calvin Ridley went pretty high a few seasons ago. 

 

Contrast that with UGA, who has none, and to my knowledge, has not had a successful WR drafted since Julio Jones.  Their RBs get drafted high, Chubb, Michel, Gurley; but not their receivers.

 

Certainly this isn't an equalizer, but my goodness, its such a huge disparity that it must be accounted for in some way.

 

A) Georgia has the same high 4 and 5 star guys at the skill positions that Alabama has. 

 

B) Julio Jones went Alabama, AJ Green went to Georgia

 

C) The common denominator is the QB. One is just flat out better than the other (Tua>Fromm). The playcalling for Tua, allows for the WR play to be that much better compared to the limited/conservative approach with Fromm. 

 

I will say George Pickens will be, at the minimum, a top 15-20 pick in 2 years. That kid is going to be every bit as good, if not better, than the top guys coming out this year. Hopefully he gets better QB play than Fromm the next couple of years.

[ColtsBlueFL]

On 1/8/2020 at 6:39 AM, aaron11 said:

doctors think he will be fine.  

 

Doctors think like this-

 

 

[aaron11]

10 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Maybe he can have a great 4 years and decent 6... maybe.

i would take 6 years.  thats how long luck played and we used a #1 overall pick on him

 

4-6 six years of having a good qb is a better outlook than we have right now, he would be on a rookie contract for most of that too.  i know its a risk, if there were no risk he would never be available to us

[DougDew]

10 hours ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

A) Georgia has the same high 4 and 5 star guys at the skill positions that Alabama has. 

 

B) Julio Jones went Alabama, AJ Green went to Georgia

 

C) The common denominator is the QB. One is just flat out better than the other (Tua>Fromm). The playcalling for Tua, allows for the WR play to be that much better compared to the limited/conservative approach with Fromm. 

 

I will say George Pickens will be, at the minimum, a top 15-20 pick in 2 years. That kid is going to be every bit as good, if not better, than the top guys coming out this year. Hopefully he gets better QB play than Fromm the next couple of years.

Good points, and those are parts of the analysis that comes AFTER looking at the charts.  Just like Stats, charts...derived from stats....don't provide the answer, they provide questions.

 

But I would say that the scheme in UGA is outdated relative to Bama, evidence by the types of skilled positions that get drafted (or will get drafted)

 

I don't know what role that scheme difference plays in the stats of the QB.  It seems to me by what I see, it held back Fromm relative to what looks like his skills, IMO.  And I'm not saying he's equal to Tua.

 

As a point of understanding the data, Fromm's low stats to his weak side is a result of him avoiding pressure by tending to roll to his right, throwing from the right side of the right hashmark.  I don't think he has an issue throwing to his left from the pocket.  Don't know why he doesn't seem to ever roll left.  Physicality maybe.

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

12 hours ago, aaron11 said:

i would take 6 years.  thats how long luck played and we used a #1 overall pick on him

 

4-6 six years of having a good qb is a better outlook than we have right now, he would be on a rookie contract for most of that too.  i know its a risk, if there were no risk he would never be available to us

 

Strictly out of my norm and a wild guess.  Nevertheless-

 

Actually, GM's / teams are beginning to think 6-8 year QB along the likes a Lamar Jackson, etc...

 

Depends (IMHO) if DC's can get pro defenses in to schemes where they can win vs that type of O with consistency. Butb the better the guy is a drop back passer too... well...

[aaron11]

On 1/9/2020 at 8:43 PM, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Strictly out of my norm and a wild guess.  Nevertheless-

 

Actually, GM's / teams are beginning to think 6-8 year QB along the likes a Lamar Jackson, etc...

 

Depends (IMHO) if DC's can get pro defenses in to schemes where they can win vs that type of O with consistency. Butb the better the guy is a drop back passer too... well...

 

well the ravens are SB favorites now, if they go on to win it will be worth it no matter how long lamar plays imo.  i think he can play a while too, probably not until 40 but 30+. Vick made it that  long with a smaller frame.

 

tua will need to learn to protect himself and run very selectively.  hes fast but not a run first guy, 17 rushing yards this year