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Week 5 impressions: Brissett


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28 minutes ago, BleedBlu8792 said:

 

Those QB's/stats I handed you, to which you still don't seem to comprehend the point of, weren't "made up" by me, so I'm not sure where I'm wrong. It's historical data that you can look up for yourself, but you keep wanting to throw absolutes around as if because a guy performed a certain way in college that's how he'll be in the NFL, which is completely FALSE. 

 

"Brissett could end up being a different QB than what we have seen."

 

You even contradict yourself in your own post. haha 

 

Is he going to be what he was in college or not? You're speaking out of both side of your mouth.

 

 

You are not paying attention.   You are throwing exceptions out to try to prove an invalid point.   

I did not "contradict" myself because I never talked in absolutes as you have.  I am talking trends.   Trends are what we have to go off of.  The current trend is that Jacoby is a good QB who takes care of the ball but will never constantly throw for high yardage.   I am good with that and have said so.   He could prove the trend wrong, but he hasn't.  

 

 

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That really is a compliment.   This game was managed like it needed to be to win.   37 to 23 time of possession for the Colts.   

Not sold on Brissett. He managed the game today but it just seems like he doesn't anticipate recievers open which is key for getting those 20+ yd completions. 

You don't have to have plan B now. Our plan A, B and C right now is Brissett and it should be Brissett. For this season there is no question about who should be the QB. Brissett is what gives us the b

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10 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

LOL This is funny

 

 

It's funny out of context.  However, kickers are the highest scoring players in the long term.  I mean the all time highest scorers are kickers.  Nonkickers don't enter the equation until Jerry Rice, who is 38th all time in points.  

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9 minutes ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

Exactly he is one demensuinal smart and good decision making game manager. If we are down and in a shoot out he is a liability it just how it is. Good run Ds will force us to play deep and he will be exposed. 

With this oline I doubt we are going to be in many games where it is a shootout. We run the ball to well. That raiders game was a one off most likely because players were dropping balls and we had no TY. The way this team plays the chances of us having a blowout loss is low. The only way that happens if coaches call a bad game or we have receivers not doing their jobs. I actually though Reich called a bad game against Oakland and got away from the run game. It was actually working early.

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6 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

With this oline I doubt we are going to be in many games where it is a shootout. We run the ball to well. That raiders game was a one off most likely because players were dropping balls and we had no TY. The way this team plays the chances of us having a blowout loss is low. The only way that happens if coaches call a bad game or we have receivers not doing their jobs. I actually though Reich called a bad game against Oakland and got away from the run game. It was actually working early.

I agree most teams wont stop our line from opening up holes. I guess i see us making playoffs and competing. I feel like complete teams with good run Ds or high scoring offenses will force us to pass more. I just see us as a really good team on the brink of competing to superbowl caliper team if we fix a few things. We need DTs that can slow down oppenents run game. Im not saying we cant win with JB7 but he isnt built to shoot it out if we need that. Maybe im being greedy thinking we can have it all lol. But with the job Ballard has done and our young talented oline and cap space I feel we can still get way better. Most the pieces are here just a few more and a little more competition.

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Even in that KC game with low passing  yards if we convert just two of those FG to TD we beat them by two TD and score almost thirty points. Reich cost us one. This team has been great in the red zone.  You can still score 30 points playing like we did if your efficient and get TD. Even TN with their great defense didn’t completely shut down the run game.

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31 minutes ago, Myles said:

You are not paying attention.   You are throwing exceptions out to try to prove an invalid point.   

I did not "contradict" myself because I never talked in absolutes as you have.  I am talking trends.   Trends are what we have to go off of.  The current trend is that Jacoby is a good QB who takes care of the ball but will never constantly throw for high yardage.   I am good with that and have said so.   He could prove the trend wrong, but he hasn't.  

 

 

 

"because I never talked in absolutes as you have"

 

"Jacoby is a good QB who takes care of the ball but will never constantly throw for high yardage"

 

 

Well done.. 

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1 hour ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

I feel like these "Impressions" threads need a reminder/sticky for each one...

I've seen the word "whining" and phrases like "can't we just be happy with a win?" countless times in these threads. It's completely possible to be happy with a win and still point out where JB struggled (and obviously there were positives too). And I don't see much of what I'd consider whining in this thread, not in the least.

We should rename them to "Positive impressions only", 'cause god forbid you note something unflattering about him. 

 

"can't we just be happy", "lots of whining", "let it rest", etc. 

 

Here are my questions to those who are desperate for nothing negative be said about Brissett - do you guys and gals think that Reich and Ballard don't see what we are seeing? Do you seriously think Reich and Ballard are oblivious to the locking into primary target and staring down targets, and missing wide open receivers, and the lack of anticipation, etc? Do you think it's accidental that Brissett is the QB with one of the lowest depth of target in the NFL? I promise you, they know Brissett's warts and limitations much better than we do and I promise you if they think they can get a better prospect in the draft than what Brissett is showing, they will.

 

Not because they don't like Brissett, or because they think they can't be good team with Brissett. They obviously think highly enough of him to give him 30M to be our starter this year and very possibly next year too(even if they draft a new QB). But they also very obviously didn't want to tie themselves to Brissett long-term before he's proven he's the guy. Do you think they are not doing similar type of evaluation of Brissett after every game(or at least after the season)? What is that contract to you if not a "show me what you can do" contract? This is one of the most important things to get right for this franchise over the next couple of years and to a large degree might influence the fate of this team for the next decade, and you don't want us to talk about it with all its nuances? SERIOUSLY? I really don't get this line of reasoning. This is silly to me... if you don't want to read people's impressions... all of them, positive and negative about a player, don't enter a thread that's literally named "Week X Impressions: Player Y"...

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I'm glad JB7 isn't "forced" to go deep right now. (Being behind multiple scores). But comforting he has before (2017) with some success.

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/09/indianapolis-colts-jacoby-brissett-top-deep-passers/

 

I think Frank is setting up the league and achieving his top 5 rushing team goal at the same time.  We will see what transpires over the season.

 

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1 minute ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

I'm glad JB7 isn't "forced" to go deep right now. (Being behind multiple scores). But comforting he has before (2017) with some success.

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/09/indianapolis-colts-jacoby-brissett-top-deep-passers/

 

I think Frank is setting up the league and achieving his top 5 rushing team goal at the same time.  We will see what transpires over the season.

 

Eventually it’s going to open up guys down field. Guys will eventually get wide open. He has been a hair late on both the throws to Cain that drew the PI calls. Campbell quit on his throw against Oakland. Eventually that timing will get down. 

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9 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

I'm glad JB7 isn't "forced" to go deep right now. (Being behind multiple scores). But comforting he has before (2017) with some success.

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/09/indianapolis-colts-jacoby-brissett-top-deep-passers/

 

I think Frank is setting up the league and achieving his top 5 rushing team goal at the same time.  We will see what transpires over the season.

 

 

Granted the Colts do get at least 8 indoor games, but come January, when the weather is not so great playing outside, the intermediate/deep passing game kind of goes out the window anyways. Frank, Chris, and Jim have clearly stated, from early on, what they want from this football team, regardless of who is QB, and it's been dead on. I think people are having hard time of accepting it per se. 

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19 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

I'm glad JB7 isn't "forced" to go deep right now. (Being behind multiple scores). But comforting he has before (2017) with some success.

 

https://coltswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/09/indianapolis-colts-jacoby-brissett-top-deep-passers/

 

I think Frank is setting up the league and achieving his top 5 rushing team goal at the same time.  We will see what transpires over the season.

 

 

This stat is somewhat misleading or at least it doesn't tell the full story. He had high completion% downfield, but he didn't throw much downfield:

Quote

Despite throwing the second-lowest percentage of deep passes at 8.7 percent...

 

This is a completion measurement. When you combine it with the fact that he threw extremely rarely downfield, you don't know if his completion % was high because he's naturally accurate thrower downfield, or because he only threw when the throw was a no-brainer, noone anywhere near the receiver throw.

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28 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

No one is saying we can only say positive things. It’s the absolutes of he isn’t going to get better which is ridiculous because nobody knows.

Who is saying that he isn't going to get better? He's already gotten better from 2017 to now. 

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4 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

This stat is somewhat misleading or at least it doesn't tell the full story. He was accurate downfield, but he didn't throw much downfield:

 

This is a completion measurement. When you combine it with the fact that he threw extremely rarely downfield, you don't know if his completion % was high because he's naturally accurate thrower downfield, or because he only threw when the throw was a no-brainer, noone anywhere near the receiver throw.

 

Fair enough, yet it still shows that he 'could' do it, when called upon.

 

Here's more-

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/deep-ball-project

 

https://www.indianasportscoverage.com/jacoby-brissetts-deep-ball/

 

 

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6 minutes ago, IinD said:

First time I saw that sign I asked my wife why they would intentionally misspell Indy. 

 

Because you become the I *...Ohhhh...lol

Lol.  I can relate.  I didnt get it at first either.  haha

Btw... I shared that photo because I have on my Vinatieri jersey.. and was commenting on the tweet. :hat:

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@stitches

 

The complaining (for me personally) is about because there's no plan B from us in the pro JB squad.

 

To me it's like complaining your car sucks but you want a new one and have $5 in the bank. 

 

The second thing that annoys me is how does anyone know he won't get better? It's like a foregone conclusion he's not the future here. 

 

Let the REPLACEMENT talk chill until it's OBVIOUS he's not the answer.

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1 minute ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Fair enough, yet it still shows that he 'could' do it, when called upon.

He has the arm strength to get the ball downfield. This is as much as I'm willing to give him right now. I don't think it means he can consistently move the ball as a passer when called upon. He's doesn't have the track record of doing it at all. It takes a lot more than the ability to throw the ball deep. 

 

Also.. a lot of those throws(in 2017) were not when we were down multiple scores. If you remember 2017 was the year we entered leading the 4th quarter 9 times. We weren't really getting blown out in a ton of those games... we just were losing a ton of games because of poor coaching and playcalling in the 4th quarter. 

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1 minute ago, IinD said:

@stitches

 

The complaining (for me personally) is about because there's no plan B from us in the pro JB squad.

 

To me it's like complaining your car sucks but you want a new one and have $5 in the bank. 

 

The second thing that annoys me is how does anyone know he won't get better? It's like a foregone conclusion he's not the future here. 

 

Let the REPLACEMENT talk chill until it's OBVIOUS he's not the answer.

 

You don't have to have plan B now. Our plan A, B and C right now is Brissett and it should be Brissett. For this season there is no question about who should be the QB. Brissett is what gives us the best chance to win and he's stable and solid enough to give us a chance against most opponents if he gets help from the run game and/or the defense. 

 

I have said this earlier - my observations in those impressions threads are geared exclusively towards evaluating Brissett for Colts' future, not for anything to do with winning or losing a specific game. A team wins and loses games both because and in spite of its QB all the time. We need to assess the big picture here, because if not at the end of this year, then at the end of next year, we need to know if we will be giving long-term contract to Brissett or not. This is the single most important thing for the franchise to figure out over the next couple of years(and preferably over the next 6-7 months if they have good enough confidence in whatever they decide) and it is important to critically evaluate Brissett in that context. 

 

On your second point - I don't think anyone is saying Brissett will not improve from now on. He will improve... the question is whether it's reasonable to expect him to improve to a level that will give you good chance to win in the playoffs against the best of the best? Also, there are things we can expect improvement in, and things that QBs generally don't improve a ton in, things that are natural to the QB and you won't expect him to take a huge jump in(for me anticipation throwing is one of those things... it requires feel and natural talent to be really good at it, could he improve at it through coaching and experience - sure, but I don't expect miraculous jumps, but rather marginal improvements), etc. 

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9 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

You don't have to have plan B now. Our plan A, B and C right now is Brissett and it should be Brissett. For this season there is no question about who should be the QB. Brissett is what gives us the best chance to win and he's stable and solid enough to give us a chance against most opponents if he gets help from the run game and/or the defense. 

 

I have said this earlier - my observations in those impressions threads are geared exclusively towards evaluating Brissett for Colts' future, not for anything to do with winning or losing a specific game. A team wins and loses games both because and in spite of its QB all the time. We need to assess the big picture here, because if not at the end of this year, then at the end of next year, we need to know if we will be giving long-term contract to Brissett or not. This is the single most important thing for the franchise to figure out over the next couple of years(and preferably over the next 6-7 months if they have good enough confidence in whatever they decide) and it is important to critically evaluate Brissett in that context. 

 

On your second point - I don't think anyone is saying Brissett will not improve from now on. He will improve... the question is whether it's reasonable to expect him to improve to a level that will give you good chance to win in the playoffs against the best of the best? Also, there are things we can expect improvement in, and things that QBs generally don't improve a ton in, things that are natural to the QB and you won't expect him to take a huge jump in(for me anticipation throwing is one of those things... it requires feel and natural talent to be really good at it, could he improve at it through coaching and experience - sure, but I don't expect miraculous jumps, but rather marginal improvements), etc. 

Fair enough, good answers :).

 

I think it's also kind of like criticizing someone's friend/spouse/kid, you take it more personally so to speak.

 

I want Jacoby to be the answer so we don't become one of those carousel QB teams (hello Jags/Titans/Hou-until recently). Just think of all those QB's those teams have had...I remember guys like Gerrard, Leftwick, Lock, Young, Fitzpatrick, Henne, Shaub...I don't want to be one of those teams. 

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14 minutes ago, stitches said:

On your second point - I don't think anyone is saying Brissett will not improve from now on. He will improve... the question is whether it's reasonable to expect him to improve to a level that will give you good chance to win in the playoffs against the best of the best? Also, there are things we can expect improvement in, and things that QBs generally don't improve a ton in, things that are natural to the QB and you won't expect him to take a huge jump in(for me anticipation throwing is one of those things... it requires feel and natural talent to be really good at it, could he improve at it through coaching and experience - sure, but I don't expect miraculous jumps, but rather marginal improvements), etc. 


Yeah, I really haven't seen this sentiment that much.

Not that it doesn't exist, just I don't think it's nearly as prevalent as some think. I have seen a few posts that are just trollish in saying JB's terrible, but those are very few and far in between and should just be ignored altogether.

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4 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:


Well yeah, you're not gonna see any players issues on a highlight video...

The point is there are a lot of deep balls thrown in this video. So the stuff saying he can’t throw a deep ball is silly. There are some elite throws in that video. Nobody stops to think maybe this is reichs system right now or maybe having young WR is a issue.

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Some of those throws in that video are very Luck like. Dropping it right in the bread basket and a couple in double coverage. Funny that everyone said he had trouble throwing the intermediate short routes before the season started and he has excelled at those. No one was questioning his deep ball. I have a feeling this is all going to come together nicely before the end of the season.

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1 hour ago, IinD said:

@stitches

 

The complaining (for me personally) is about because there's no plan B from us in the pro JB squad.

 

To me it's like complaining your car sucks but you want a new one and have $5 in the bank. 

 

The second thing that annoys me is how does anyone know he won't get better? It's like a foregone conclusion he's not the future here. 

 

Let the REPLACEMENT talk chill until it's OBVIOUS he's not the answer.

 

I don’t think he’s good enough.  NothIng personal.  He’s slow. He reacts slowly.  He locks on and doesn’t seem to read and go through progression.

 He’s is an enviable postiOn with a great line and good weapons and great coaching.  I don’t see really much that he does well except evade the rush, but then he is too slow to gain much running and doesn’t make too many plays as a result.  I don’t see any progress over 2017 in his play.  The team is way better but I can’t see that he is.  That’s what I think.  I’d love to say I wrong.

 

But for instance I think Hooker is an absolute stud.  And some people seem to be suggesting that Odum is better.  That’s borderline crackpot to me.  It’s goofy.  The difference to me is that Hooker has proven he’s a stud.  Yes he gets hurt and that blows.  Hopefully it isn’t going to derail what I think is a possible HOF career.   If he plays at the level he played last year for 7-8 more he’s a HOF.

 

But I don’t get all butthurt if someone denigrates his play.  He’s not my son.  Don’t know him.  I offer differing perspective when someone downplays his studliness.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

I don’t think he’s good enough.  NothIng personal.  He’s slow. He reacts slowly.  He locks on and doesn’t seem to read and go through progression.

 He’s is an enviable postiOn with a great line and good weapons and great coaching.  I don’t see really much that he does well except evade the rush, but then he is too slow to gain much running and doesn’t make too many plays as a result.  I don’t see any progress over 2017 in his play.  The team is way better but I can’t see that he is.  That’s what I think.  I’d love to say I wrong.

 

But for instance I think Hooker is an absolute stud.  And some people seem to be suggesting that Odum is better.  That’s borderline crackpot to me.  It’s goofy.  The difference to me is that Hooker has proven he’s a stud.  Yes he gets hurt and that blows.  Hopefully it isn’t going to derail what I think is a possible HOF career.   If he plays at the level he played last year for 7-8 more he’s a HOF.

 

But I don’t get all butthurt if someone denigrates his play.  He’s not my son.  Don’t know him.  I offer differing perspective when someone downplays his studliness.

 

 

Totally respect that viewpoint. 

 

Like I said until it's OFFICIAL he isn't the answer, it's kind of annoying reading things like 'he's not the future' or 'he's terrible'. Let's see if he can improve.

 

If someone KNOWS he's not, then please pass me at least one set of jackpot winning numbers, it would be greatly appreciated. Also, let me know when we're SB bound so I can clear my calendar.

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8 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

I don’t think he’s good enough.  NothIng personal.  He’s slow. He reacts slowly.  He locks on and doesn’t seem to read and go through progression.

 He’s is an enviable postiOn with a great line and good weapons and great coaching.  I don’t see really much that he does well except evade the rush, but then he is too slow to gain much running and doesn’t make too many plays as a result.  I don’t see any progress over 2017 in his play.  The team is way better but I can’t see that he is.  That’s what I think.  I’d love to say I wrong.

 

But for instance I think Hooker is an absolute stud.  And some people seem to be suggesting that Odum is better.  That’s borderline crackpot to me.  It’s goofy.  The difference to me is that Hooker has proven he’s a stud.  Yes he gets hurt and that blows.  Hopefully it isn’t going to derail what I think is a possible HOF career.   If he plays at the level he played last year for 7-8 more he’s a HOF.

 

But I don’t get all butthurt if someone denigrates his play.  He’s not my son.  Don’t know him.  I offer differing perspective when someone downplays his studliness.

 

 

I hate to say it but hooker doesn’t punch out that ball and I am not sure he makes that tackle that Odum did on that 3rd and 28. The one play I think hooker might of been able to get a int was the one Mahomes TD where everyone is scrambling.

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9 minutes ago, Chloe6124 said:

I hate to say it but hooker doesn’t punch out that ball and I am not sure he makes that tackle that Odum did on that 3rd and 28. The one play I think hooker might of been able to get a int was the one Mahomes TD where everyone is scrambling.

 

It doesn’t hurt my feelings that you think that Chloe.  Not going to tell you to wait and see if Hooker continues to be one of the best in league.

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13 minutes ago, IinD said:

Totally respect that viewpoint. 

 

Like I said until it's OFFICIAL he isn't the answer, it's kind of annoying reading things like 'he's not the future' or 'he's terrible'. Let's see if he can improve.

 

If someone KNOWS he's not, then please pass me at least one set of jackpot winning numbers, it would be greatly appreciated. Also, let me know when we're SB bound so I can clear my calendar.

 

Cool.  In the meantime feel free to counter my ideas. It’s fun to me to armchair analyze sports.

 

JB reminds me of Sanchez. “Led” the Jets to two AFC title games. Wasn’t good enough ultimately.  Was in a great position with elite defense.  But he was a below average starter.  Ryan I think even said just don’t lose the game.

 

JB arm talent fine.  Size, strength great.

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IMO, he’s definitely a starter. Not the best Sunday, but he doesn’t have much to throw to. T.Y. is consistently doubled, Jack is mostly used for blocking and check downs (which he should be), Ebron is in a rough patch, Parris and Cain are still developing, Funchess is out, and the rest are just mostly roster fillers. Hard to judge a guy like JB when he doesn’t have solid targets. One thing though, he doesn’t panic under pressure which is one of the best things for a QB to have. Mahomes looked rattled, JB never does

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5 minutes ago, LuckyHorseShoe§ said:

IMO, he’s definitely a starter. Not the best Sunday, but he doesn’t have much to throw to. T.Y. is consistently doubled, Jack is mostly used for blocking and check downs (which he should be), Ebron is in a rough patch, Parris and Cain are still developing, Funchess is out, and the rest are just mostly roster fillers. Hard to judge a guy like JB when he doesn’t have solid targets. One thing though, he doesn’t panic under pressure which is one of the best things for a QB to have. Mahomes looked rattled, JB never does

 

Did you think MHomes looked rattled in the first half before he hurt his ankle?  I didn’t.  He looked awesome.  Made some incredible plays.  He looked hurt to me, not rattled.  He was without his best two receivers too.  We bracketed Kelce and were in PH face constantly.

 

JB faced little pressure but bailed a few times.  He’s a calm looking dude.  His eyes look like he’s counting beans, but he panics when in the pocket and the 1st option is negated IMO.

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21 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

It doesn’t hurt my feelings that you think that Chloe.  Not going to tell you to wait and see if Hooker continues to be one of the best in league.

I never said he wasnt one of the best. Just pointing out if hooker had played that game we might of lost. Odum basically kept the chiefs from putting up more points. Maybe hooker could of got a interception. We will never know. It’s just something to watch for the rest of the season. At the very  least we know Odum can play and maybe we use him in certain situations.

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Just now, Chloe6124 said:

I never said he wasnt one of the best. Just pointing out if hooker had played that game we might of lost. Odum basically kept the chiefs from putting up more points. Maybe hooker could of got a interception. We will never know. It’s just something to watch for the rest of the season. At the least at least we know Odum can play and maybe we use him in certain situations.

Great it’s obvious that depth is important.

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25 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Did you think MHomes looked rattled in the first half before he hurt his ankle?  I didn’t.  He looked awesome.  Made some incredible plays.  He looked hurt to me, not rattled.  He was without his best two receivers too.  We bracketed Kelce and were in PH face constantly.

 

JB faced little pressure but bailed a few times.  He’s a calm looking dude.  His eyes look like he’s counting beans, but he panics when in the pocket and the 1st option is negated IMO.

That is an excuse for Mahomes IMO, saying his ankle was injured. He still played, they were at home, and we were without our best defensive player and still won. If he would've been put out of the game and not played in the 2nd half, that would be one thing but he had chance after chance. Our defense dominated plain and simple.

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

That is an excuse for Mahomes IMO, saying his ankle was injured. He still played, they were at home, and we were without our best defensive and still won. If he would've been put out of the game and not played in the 2nd half, that would be one thing but he had chance after cahnce. Our defense dominated plain and simple.

You didn’t think he was injured?  Like he was a Brazilian soccer player faking it or something?  They had 32 yds rushing.

 

You think Brisett was better than him Sunday?

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    • We don't have a qb,  so no we don't need a wr more than a qb
    • My pick for QB would be Michael Gallup. Oh wait, he's a WR. Yeah then I will still take Michael Gallup as we need receivers more than a QB right now.   Send Rock to Dallas for Gallup. 
    • Gus Johnson is a play by play guy.   Romo is color commentator.   They don't have the same job.    Both are very good at what they do,  but they do different things
    • I see many of the draft "experts" talk about what the Colts will do in the draft.   The draft process on the QB position, even with all the improved scouting techniques is a highly flawed .   If you look at history some interesting facts come out. Drafting a QB in the first round is a high risk endeavor    In the past 9 Years 20 QBs have been drafted in the first round.  I wanted to come up with some metrics to see the % that have worked out with the team that they drafted them   I am "measuring" the results with the simple question,   Would the NFL team make the same draft decision, at their position in that years draft, in hindsight - Its a YES/NO decision   For the ones that are still TBD (last few years) I counted these as YES. The selection of Goff as a "NO" is not that he is a horrible QB, but a simple question.... If you could do the pick again would you take Goff at number 1 overall.....  my guess is the Rams would have gone another way   2012 Draft Round 1 1st Andrew Luck - YES 2nd Robert Griffin - NO 8th Ryan Tannehil - NO 22nd Brandon Wheedon - NO   2013 Draft Round 1 16th EJ Manuel - NO   2014 Draft Round 1 3rd Pick Blake Bortles - NO 22nd Johnny Manziel - NO   2015 Draft Round 1 1st - Jameis Winston - NO 2nd Marcus Marriota  - NO   2016 Draft Round 1 1st Jared Goff - NO 2nd Carson Wentz - YES 22nd Paxton Lynch - NO   2017 Draft Round 1 2nd Mitch Trubiski - NO 10th Pat Mahomes - YES 12th Deshaun Watsun - YES   2018 Draft Round 1 1st Baker Mayfield - YES 3rd Sam Darnold - NO 7th Josh Allen - YES 10th Josh Rosen - NO 32nd Lamar Jackson - YES   With this data, drafting a QB in the first round is a 30% hit rate   The folks that want to give up 2 or 3 first round picks to move up to get Fields or Wilson may want to think deeper on this   From my perspective, and looking at the analytics it would appear that drafting the best BPA OL, DL , CB, or even WR,  available at 21 is the safest approach   And going with an extremely low risk/ low cost FA (Winston) or if the deal is decent, offering a trade to get Matthew Stafford. (Stafford route is my first choice), but I wouldnt want to  get fleeced in the trade.   If the right LT isnt there at 21, there are a few FA OTs that we could pick up       Let me know your thoughts...........      
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