Archer’s “I Think I know Grigson” Colt Mock

[Archer]

By the end I felt I knew what Polian was going to do with every pick before the draft started (and I was right more often that most people).  Here’s some things I think I’ve gleaned from Grigson’s first four drafts.  Not enough info to be truly confident of much, so some are more guesses (that is, don’t expect endless examples to support every belief of mine).

 

Grigson believes that the only cardinal sin in the draft is failing to get good value with each pick (particularly the earlier picks).  He is highly unlikely to reach for a positional need.

 

He has a perfect willingness to come out of the draft failing to have addressed even the biggest of needs.  Remember his first draft, when he had only one CB (Powers) worthy of being on an NFL roster?  He didn’t draft one, then he began trading for them.  He’s done it with other areas over the past four years too – safeties, ILBs, etc.  Still, if the players at the top of his board are similarly rated, he’ll take the position of highest need amongst those highest-rated players.

•  

• Center – Grigson has said in the past that good centers often come from unlikely places and that you don’t have to use a lot of resources to find one (1^st rounder or high $ FA).  This and the first bullet point make it unlikely to me that he would take Ryan in Round 1.  Grigson’s struggles to find a center probably don’t change this, as he’s stubborn and other teams have “proven” his strategy (GB/Lindley, etc.).

•  

• OLB – I think Grigson has a “Go Big or Go Home” philosophy about his rush OLBs (and maybe SAMs too – Walden).  For the top of the depth chart, he’ll pay big FA $ or use 1^st round draft picks.  Knowing the demand for pass rushers, he’s willing to take his chances on system fit (Werner), declining skills (Mathis and Cole), and character (Newsome and maybe Spence???) to get this critical skill on the team.

•  

• CB – He pays good money for starters, and then he feels he can fill in behind them with unheralded prospects.  He seems to really like guys who have physical talent, but have bounced around PSs and gained experience with other organizations.  Basically, I think he believes that the supremely talented CBs in our league must be drafted pretty high, and there’s a logjam of guys after that that must be developed significantly once they get to the NFL.  Why not let someone else do most of the developing and then pick them off right when that work is about to pay off?  Grigson only drafted one (D’Joun) so far, despite a persistent need the last four years.  I feel this year’s CB corps is the best we’ve had going into the draft…

•  

• S - He’s pretty picky about his safeties.  I’m not sure what he’s looking for, but he takes one in the draft whenever he feels he’s getting a good value, and he fills in with veterans who have played well in the past.  He’s really like three for four in FA – hits with Adams, Lowry, and Anderson, and a huge miss with Landry.  Hard to tell which safety is going to grab him, but I think he considers the position important and will draft one in any round that he considers the player a value.

•  

• WR – Seems to believe you can never have too many good WRs.

   

  With all this said, here’s my current mock:

   

  1) Shaq Lawson, OLB, Clemson.  Go Big or Go Home!  Shaq’s a significantly better athlete than Werner, who Pagano and Grigson were convinced could play either SAM or Rush.  Concerns about his shoulder may make him last to the Colts pick.  Having made significant bets at both positions this year (Walden, Mathis, and Cole all getting $$$), we can PUP list Shaq and get his shoulder right, if need be.  At worst, he should be a huge improvement in pass-rush ability at the SAM position.

   

  2) Nick Martin, C, Notre Dame.  If we miss on Martin (he’s rumored to have suitors in the mid- to late-2^nd), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Grigson pick up Seumalo or Thuney much later in the draft or not draft one at all (see the 2^nd and 4^th bullets above).  In the 2^nd round, though, Martin represents a good value and should be a Grigson target.

   

  3) Justin Simmons, S, Boston College.  This is a wild guess, since I admit to little understanding of what traits Grigson likes in safeties.  However, Simmons has a lot of coverage ability, is a good all-round safety, and showed a ton of athletic skill at the Combine.  While many don’t like him this high, I see a lot to like.

   

  4) Tajae Sharpe, WR, UMASS.  Killed at the East West Shrine, and was the best WR at the Combine in terms of routes and hands.  Has small hands, and otherwise would be gone by this time in the draft.  Behind #3, we only have Bray so far, making this a bigger need than national media will recognize.

   

  5) Joe Thuney, OL, NC St.  A perfect ZBS guy to help incorporate ZBS concepts.  The Combine showed he was very mobile, as well as strong.  His college tape shows he was a smart and versatile player who can supposedly play all five positions (making him a possible center or back-up swing tackle even). 

   

  7) Tyrone Holmes, OLB, Montana.  With the top three guys at OLB being 30 or older, multiple players are needed.  Holmes played at a low level of competition, but he had great college production and showed speed, quickness, and strength at his Pro Day.  If he lasts to our 7^th, he’d be a really good value.

   

   

[LJpalmbeacher2]

You Beat me to it !!!

I was thinking of having a "Griggs mock myself" lol. I already had the first couple picks in my head.

I probably will still do it. And btw, good job.

[12isthenew18]

I'd actually be cool with this

[Footballlax31]

Scary place inside the mind of grigson but I think you did a good job breaking it down. Simmons sounds likea great counterpart to geathers. Geathers with the power/run stopping. Simmons with the coverage. Starting dude for years

 

Solid draft the one thing is WR. I rather have defensive player, but I see where your coming from

[BProland85]

Wow that would be a crappy draft

[Footballlax31]

42 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Wow that would be a crappy draft

What dont you like about it? Just wondering. The only thing I dont like is WR in the 4th. I rather get one through free agency but grigson will probably draft one

[richard pallo]

Very nice job.  The only thing different about this year is Grigson almost lost his job a few months ago.  The owner has made it very clear that we need to address the interior of the OL and protect Luck.  Everyone in the pro football world can see it's our number one need.  I don't think he can afford to gamble and wait until the second round.  He can trade back a few spots and still get it done.  I would be shocked if he didn't follow the owners thinking and draft an interior OL, especially C , if a player like Kelly is there.  He has to show the owner he is serious about fixing the OL above all other perceived needs and stop fooling around with later round picks that have not worked.  His chance of improving the OL is extremely high with the first two picks.  I wouldn't be surprised if our first two picks are OL. 

[buccolts]

Hmm, so who makes up the all PUP List draft?

Lawson in the 1st.

Smith in the 2nd.

.......... 

[COLTS449]

I wouldn't draft a WR early. I think Demarcus Robinson may go undrafted, or at least last until the 5th round. I'd pick him up. He's a top 5 receiver in this class IMO.

[BlueShoe]

@Archer

 

I too had Polian mostly figured out. He liked players with great character, good college production, first class speed for the position, and he did not like underclassmen much. We also had a specific defense (year 5 and on) that allowed us to draft undersized players with more speed. It was fairly easy to find Polian guys in the draft and I often did.

 

Grigson is in his fifth year, and he will obviously apply his experience to define what kind of GM he becomes. We will one-day be able to figure his drafting style out. However, he doesn't know himself yet. Polian was a very successful GM before he ever worked in Indianapolis. Grigson is learning on the job.

 

I believe that if Grigson does not fix the offensive line this year, then it will be his last as a Colt. That kind of pressure should make a man do something out of what we believe his character to be. When we do things out of our comfort zone then we learn something new. It is how we grow. He will have to take offensive linemen early and often or he can kiss his his job in Indianapolis goodbye. 

 

And if he is so stubborn that he still believes he can find a late round offensive lineman gem then he needs to go. At this point it is past ridiculous. He was an offensive lineman in the NFL. Conventional wisdom would lead us to believe he would understand offensive line talent more than any other position. He should be the offensive lineman whisperer. Ironic when we think about how becoming an offensive lineman is how he got his start in the NFL, and his lack of knowledge about offensive linemen is why this could be the end of the road for him.

 

Bottom line is if Grigson does not get his head out of his rear end then we will be studying the traits of a new GM soon. 

[Archer]

33 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

I believe that if Grigson does not fix the offensive line this year, then it will be his last as a Colt. That kind of pressure should make a man do something out of what we believe his character to be. When we do things out of our comfort zone then we learn something new. It is how we grow. He will have to take offensive linemen early and often or he can kiss his his job in Indianapolis goodbye.

 

Good points, all of them.  I kind of disagree about Grigson's tenuous position.  I think we saw Irsay make up his mind to let Grigs and Pagano have four more years, and the only thing (within reason) that could get him fired would be a failure to get along with Chuck. 

[Defjamz26]

I agree with some of what you said. But your point about what Grigson likes in pass rushers contradicts your first round pick. Lawson isn't that type of game breaking pass rusher. Plus I don't think he's likely to try and stick a 4-3 DE in a 3-4 D again.

 

As for DB's he basically lets Pagano pick them. This year it looks like Pags likes Thompson from Boise State.

 

 

[stitches]

I took your criteria and cross-referenced it with the list of players we've shown interest in so far (http://www.draftindy.com/?page_id=1051) and here's what I got:

 

1. Noah Spence OLB/ Leonard Floyd OLB- pass-rusher

2. Karl Joseph S / Vonn Bell S / Darian Thompson S- safety with coverage ability to complement Geathers

3. Braxton Miller WR/ Leonte Carroo WR - cuz... why not? It's a WR, "can never have too many good WRs"

4. Isaac Seumalo C - here's the C we need

5. Yannick Ngakoue OLB - another pass-rusher to strenghten an aging/bad pass-rushing core

7. Marshaun Coprich RB/KR

[Archer]

51 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

I agree with some of what you said. But your point about what Grigson likes in pass rushers contradicts your first round pick. Lawson isn't that type of game breaking pass rusher. Plus I don't think he's likely to try and stick a 4-3 DE in a 3-4 D again.

Yeah, I kinda meant that he feels paying big $ or using a 1st rounder for the position is the way to go.  To me, a 1st rounder is "going big".  You could be onto something about Pagano picking the DBs!  I hadn't thought of that one...

[BProland85]

4 hours ago, Footballlax31 said:

What dont you like about it? Just wondering. The only thing I dont like is WR in the 4th. I rather get one through free agency but grigson will probably draft one

 

Basically all the picks outside of Shaq Lawson are all reach picks in my view. The value in getting a Center is around round 4 and 5 by getting a guy like Jack Allen or Isaac Seumalo. In round 3 there should be better safeties than Simmons available. Round 4 is too early to take a WR since Indy has 3 very good ones already.

[Jason_]

4 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I agree with some of what you said. But your point about what Grigson likes in pass rushers contradicts your first round pick. Lawson isn't that type of game breaking pass rusher. Plus I don't think he's likely to try and stick a 4-3 DE in a 3-4 D again.

 

As for DB's he basically lets Pagano pick them. This year it looks like Pags likes Thompson from Boise State.

 

 

 

That was not the problem with Werner, and that experience won't (and shouldn't) prevent them from trying again with a guy who was a 4-3 DE in college.  

[Defjamz26]

17 minutes ago, Jason_S said:

 

That was not the problem with Werner, and that experience won't (and shouldn't) prevent them from trying again with a guy who was a 4-3 DE in college.  

Some guys just don't project well into every scheme. You're right about Werner, as he was also not athletic and quite frankly just a bad player, but he didn't belong in a 3-4. Lawson doesn't project  well as an OLB either and most scouts say he belongs in a 4-3.

[Jason_]

1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

Some guys just don't project well into every scheme. 

 

I agree.  That's why it's important for scouts/coaches/gms to thoroughly do their homework and, where possible, put guys through their own workouts.  The problem with Werner wasn't his athleticism nor was it that he was drafted into a 3-4.  From that standpoint he was very comparable to Paul Kruger, who has played well in a 3-4.  

 

As for Lawson, I think he could be a good Sam in a 3-4 but I wouldn't want to spend the 18th overall pick on a good Sam.

[FalseStart]

1. Conklin or Nkemdiche O-Line/ D-Line

2. Spriggs/Kelly or Clark/Butler O-Line/ D-Line

3. Fackrell or Jenkins OLB

4. Howard RB or Procise RB

5. TJ Green or Sean Davis FS

7. Simmons DE or Feeney OLB

[Jackie Daytona]

Main problem with Shaq Lawson is he is more of an edge setter than a pass rusher......  not that we couldn't use more edge setting, but we desperately need rushing....

[NewColtsFan]

13 hours ago, Archer said:

By the end I felt I knew what Polian was going to do with every pick before the draft started (and I was right more often that most people).  Here’s some things I think I’ve gleaned from Grigson’s first four drafts.  Not enough info to be truly confident of much, so some are more guesses (that is, don’t expect endless examples to support every belief of mine).

 

Grigson believes that the only cardinal sin in the draft is failing to get good value with each pick (particularly the earlier picks).  He is highly unlikely to reach for a positional need.

 

He has a perfect willingness to come out of the draft failing to have addressed even the biggest of needs.  Remember his first draft, when he had only one CB (Powers) worthy of being on an NFL roster?  He didn’t draft one, then he began trading for them.  He’s done it with other areas over the past four years too – safeties, ILBs, etc.  Still, if the players at the top of his board are similarly rated, he’ll take the position of highest need amongst those highest-rated players.

•  

• Center – Grigson has said in the past that good centers often come from unlikely places and that you don’t have to use a lot of resources to find one (1^st rounder or high $ FA).  This and the first bullet point make it unlikely to me that he would take Ryan in Round 1.  Grigson’s struggles to find a center probably don’t change this, as he’s stubborn and other teams have “proven” his strategy (GB/Lindley, etc.).

•  

• OLB – I think Grigson has a “Go Big or Go Home” philosophy about his rush OLBs (and maybe SAMs too – Walden).  For the top of the depth chart, he’ll pay big FA $ or use 1^st round draft picks.  Knowing the demand for pass rushers, he’s willing to take his chances on system fit (Werner), declining skills (Mathis and Cole), and character (Newsome and maybe Spence???) to get this critical skill on the team.

•  

• CB – He pays good money for starters, and then he feels he can fill in behind them with unheralded prospects.  He seems to really like guys who have physical talent, but have bounced around PSs and gained experience with other organizations.  Basically, I think he believes that the supremely talented CBs in our league must be drafted pretty high, and there’s a logjam of guys after that that must be developed significantly once they get to the NFL.  Why not let someone else do most of the developing and then pick them off right when that work is about to pay off?  Grigson only drafted one (D’Joun) so far, despite a persistent need the last four years.  I feel this year’s CB corps is the best we’ve had going into the draft…

•  

• S - He’s pretty picky about his safeties.  I’m not sure what he’s looking for, but he takes one in the draft whenever he feels he’s getting a good value, and he fills in with veterans who have played well in the past.  He’s really like three for four in FA – hits with Adams, Lowry, and Anderson, and a huge miss with Landry.  Hard to tell which safety is going to grab him, but I think he considers the position important and will draft one in any round that he considers the player a value.

•  

• WR – Seems to believe you can never have too many good WRs.

   

  With all this said, here’s my current mock:

   

  1) Shaq Lawson, OLB, Clemson.  Go Big or Go Home!  Shaq’s a significantly better athlete than Werner, who Pagano and Grigson were convinced could play either SAM or Rush.  Concerns about his shoulder may make him last to the Colts pick.  Having made significant bets at both positions this year (Walden, Mathis, and Cole all getting $$$), we can PUP list Shaq and get his shoulder right, if need be.  At worst, he should be a huge improvement in pass-rush ability at the SAM position.

   

  2) Nick Martin, C, Notre Dame.  If we miss on Martin (he’s rumored to have suitors in the mid- to late-2^nd), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Grigson pick up Seumalo or Thuney much later in the draft or not draft one at all (see the 2^nd and 4^th bullets above).  In the 2^nd round, though, Martin represents a good value and should be a Grigson target.

   

  3) Justin Simmons, S, Boston College.  This is a wild guess, since I admit to little understanding of what traits Grigson likes in safeties.  However, Simmons has a lot of coverage ability, is a good all-round safety, and showed a ton of athletic skill at the Combine.  While many don’t like him this high, I see a lot to like.

   

  4) Tajae Sharpe, WR, UMASS.  Killed at the East West Shrine, and was the best WR at the Combine in terms of routes and hands.  Has small hands, and otherwise would be gone by this time in the draft.  Behind #3, we only have Bray so far, making this a bigger need than national media will recognize.

   

  5) Joe Thuney, OL, NC St.  A perfect ZBS guy to help incorporate ZBS concepts.  The Combine showed he was very mobile, as well as strong.  His college tape shows he was a smart and versatile player who can supposedly play all five positions (making him a possible center or back-up swing tackle even). 

   

  7) Tyrone Holmes, OLB, Montana.  With the top three guys at OLB being 30 or older, multiple players are needed.  Holmes played at a low level of competition, but he had great college production and showed speed, quickness, and strength at his Pro Day.  If he lasts to our 7^th, he’d be a really good value.

   

   

 

Since I showed up about 4 years ago,  it's at this time of year that I become an unpopular guy....    OK,  a really REALLY unpopular guy.

 

Why?      Because I come along and point out possible flaws in mock drafts....

 

So, for my good friend, Krunk....

 

Everything I read is Simmons is a 4th/5th round guy,  not a 3rd.   His rankings are in the 120's on ESPN and NFL and in the 180's on CBS where they think he's a 5th/6th round guy.    CBS is often the outlier.

 

As for Shaw Lawson,  I won't even re-visit our debate over whether or not he can effectively play OLB.   I won't go there.     But I'm not seeing anywhere a mock that has Lawson falling to 18.    He's typically going somewhere around 9-14.      Could he fall past that?    It's possible, but not likely.    Could he fall all the way to 18?  Again,  possible,  but more wishful thinking than anything,  it's very, very unlikely.

 

Generally speaking,  Grigson, Pagano and Irsay have all said they'd like another defensive oriented draft.   But you've got 3 of our first 5 picks going to offense.    I think the chances of that are very, very slim.    Not impossible,  but a long-shot in my view....

 

Just my two cents,  and often not worth that!    

 

[Archer]

8 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

As for Shaw Lawson,  I won't even re-visit our debate over whether or not he can effectively play OLB.   I won't go there.     But I'm not seeing anywhere a mock that has Lawson falling to 18.    He's typically going somewhere around 9-14.      Could he fall past that?    It's possible, but not likely.    Could he fall all the way to 18?  Again,  possible,  but more wishful thinking than anything,  it's very, very unlikely.

 

 

Thanks for your input!  This mock was intended to be a little different than my normal mock, in which I usually play it really conservative and take every player a round or two too early (in the thinking that if I hit upon a "sleeper", then other teams are also sitting on him, thus bidding up his value).  In this draft, since I'm saying that Grigson is more concerned with value than filling needs, I'm trying to foresee which prospects could fall that make sense.  News about Lawson's shoulder have him falling a little bit, and Walterfootball and those draft simulator games are beginning to have him available when the Colts draft.  As for Simmons, well I just have a feeling that he's more highly regarded among actual NFL circles than among draftniks...

[Footballlax31]

17 hours ago, BProland85 said:

 

Basically all the picks outside of Shaq Lawson are all reach picks in my view. The value in getting a Center is around round 4 and 5 by getting a guy like Jack Allen or Isaac Seumalo. In round 3 there should be better safeties than Simmons available. Round 4 is too early to take a WR since Indy has 3 very good ones already.

I see what you mean, but it does address lots of needs. I like Jack Allen and the fact that we could have two jack's on the o line is cool. What I would do is change the second round pick to a linebacker (inside or outside) or a d linemen. 

 

Then get allen or Seumalo in the fourth would be a solid draft. Our linebacker core would get a lot younger and have a new starter at center. We can get a UDFA wr to compete for 4th wide receiver or possible a free agent left on the market. What you think?

[BleedBlu8792]

I think people are putting way too much emphasis on our Rush-backer playing standing up. We still run 4-man fronts quite often, so even if Lawson were picked he would be fine in our scheme. When Freeney was here, he had his hand in the dirt quite often in this same exact scheme. However, I think Lawson is more rounded as a DE/OLB than Freeney, however not quite the pass rusher. I'd much rather have a guy who can seal off his side and still be a very effective rusher than someone who is just great at rushing the passer, which Freeney was but he was abused in the run game.

 

Lawson would be fine in our scheme, but I don't think he makes it to us.

[ColtsBlueFL]

On 4/4/2016 at 3:06 PM, Archer said:

Yeah, I kinda meant that he feels paying big $ or using a 1st rounder for the position is the way to go.  To me, a 1st rounder is "going big".  You could be onto something about Pagano picking the DBs!  I hadn't thought of that one...

 

But you may still be on to something with your reasoning.  This is in from Pat Kirwan only addresses round 1 and two for now)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"As we enter April, the final month of preparation has arrived for NFL personnel and coaching staffs, and based on my conversations with people around the league, we can begin to evaluate multiple rounds of the draft with a little more certainty.

After putting myself through the two round exercise, it is clear that the second round is loaded with good football players. It is entirely possible the Patriots will find two solid players at the end of the second round and overcome the loss of their first round pick due to deflatgate.

 

INDIANAPOLIS: 1ST ROUND PICK:  Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky
Spence had off the field issues that are well documented, but a number of club executives told me they are behind him now. This kid has pass rush skills like Robert Mathis, and the 26th-ranked pass defense could use that kind of help. 2ND ROUND PICK: Nick Martin, C/G, Notre Dame

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Kirwan does have Shaq Lawson off the board at #9 to the Bucs, though. Otherwise, there you go...

[Valpo2004]

I agree that Nick Martin seems like a Grigson guy.  He seems to value flexibility to play different positions on the line extremely highly.  

 

With WR's Grigson seems to value speed above all else.  

[krunk]

On ‎4‎/‎4‎/‎2016 at 5:44 PM, Defjamz26 said:

Some guys just don't project well into every scheme. You're right about Werner, as he was also not athletic and quite frankly just a bad player, but he didn't belong in a 3-4. Lawson doesn't project  well as an OLB either and most scouts say he belongs in a 4-3.

Of course you'll say stuff like this when you want Leonard Sloppy Floyd!