How the Bryant/Thomas contracts might impact TY Hilton's....

[Bubbz]

What are you talking about?

First, it was 'he has too many drops.' False.

Then, it was 'he can't get open against the Patriots.' Also false, and completely devoid of perspective.

Now, it's 'he's not as good as Dez, DT and CJ.' I never said he was, nor does he have to be in order to be a #1. And it's a false equivalency, as he's not that kind of player. He could eventually be as good as Antonio Brown, who is probably the most dangerous receiver in the league right now.

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/ad-hominem

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/special-pleading

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/black-or-white

https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/the-texas-sharpshooter

I agree that Hilton is not worth 13 million. That's more than dez and that's not worth it. He's not worth more or equal to dez or DT not by a long shot.

[Superman]

I agree that Hilton is not worth 13 million. That's more than dez and that's not worth it. He's not worth more or equal to dez or DT not by a long shot.

 

It's not more than Dez... ??? 14 > 13

 

I think the WR market is inflated right now, so traditionally I wouldn't agree with $13m/year for Hilton. But the market has him slotted somewhere around Randall Cobb / Jeremy Maclin, at the very least. Mike Wallace's $12m/year is really what's messing everything up, because Hilton is definitely better than him, but it's also widely accepted that Wallace is overpaid. I wish Miami had released him rather than trading him, which would have cleared a bad contract from the market, but oh well. If he reached free agency, he'd get offered $13m/year without breaking a sweat.

 

The likely outcome is that we either get him signed prior to this season for something like $12m/year, or he gets tagged in March and goes through the same nonsense Dez and DT just went through. I would have had a Maclin-level proposal over to his agent right after the draft, maybe with a little more guaranteed money. 

[bababooey]

Ok you edited to add more than one sentence, kind of useless to save all those links at the end for me when you could have used them anytime in the last 6 months on the jabronis that invade the forum. I know several of these incompleted targets are defended/intercepted/overthrown and not drops. Also, despite the fact he has the most drops in the playoffs among receivers since he joined the league (at least up until after this past year's Bengals game http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000455134/article/ty-hilton-leads-nfl-in-playoff-drops-since-2012)which ignores percentages and does not include his 36% catch/target over the Broncos and Pats games last season, he is not doing enough to deserve #1 money. Lastly, zero TDs after the first time the Pats saw him in 2012, as well as four catches in two games against them last year (despite being doubled but albeit against a great secondary but we went into each game more equipped at WR/TE/RB than 2013 playoffs) still not enough to warrant top money.

 

Edit: use http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HiltT.00/gamelog/post/as the information i posted above has formatting issues.

[NewColtsFan]

 All that matters is what Others will pay to take him away.

 We have the great Andrew Luck so his value to us is greatly diminished. Spend the $$$ on O-Line and D. It is as simple as that.

 

Respectfully, we disagree.

 

If you're under the impression that anyone can catch passes from Luck and the Colts will be fine,  then I disagree.

 

We need playmakers.    The league is built on having playmakers.    The more the better...

 

And since we just drafted/signed Andre Johnson, Phillip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief in the last 15 months,  it looks like the front office doesn't agree with you either.

 

I'm not saying we pay Hilton anything his agent asks for.....   but TY Hilton is a valuable piece that the Colts would like to bring back....     I hope we keep him.

[Superman]

Ok you edited to add more than one sentence, kind of useless to save all those links at the end for me when you could have used them anytime in the last 6 months on the jabronis that invade the forum. I know several of these incompleted targets are defended/intercepted/overthrown and not drops. Also, despite the fact he has the most drops in the playoffs among receivers since he joined the league (at least up until after this past year's Bengals game http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000455134/article/ty-hilton-leads-nfl-in-playoff-drops-since-2012)which ignores percentages and does not include his 36% catch/target over the Broncos and Pats games last season, he is not doing enough to deserve #1 money. Lastly, zero TDs after the first time the Pats saw him in 2012, as well as four catches in two games against them last year (despite being doubled but albeit against a great secondary but we went into each game more equipped at WR/TE/RB than 2013 playoffs) still not enough to warrant top money.

 

Edit: use http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HiltT.00/gamelog/post/as the information i posted above has formatting issues.

 

1) I use those links all the time. You've obviously missed them, given the way you're presenting your case in this thread.

 

2) There's a difference between a target and a catchable target. It's pointless to even mention raw targets when talking about catches/drops.

 

3) I'm sorry you're held captive by the outcome of one particular matchup, but that's simply not how it ever works. Even if you were right about Hilton against the Pats -- and again, you're not -- it wouldn't matter. CJ struggles against Revis. DT struggles against Vontae. You don't judge a player on based on his stats against one team. 

 

4) We weren't more equipped at WR/TE/RB against the Pats. As a matter of fact, we were practically threadbare, this season and last. Bradshaw was hurt in two of the three games, and was removed halfway through the third. We had basically nothing at WR but Hilton in 2013, and no one but him was playing at even a decent level down the stretch in 2014. We've been without Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Allen, stuck with Trent Richardson, have had no reliable WR3, little consistency in the run game, Fleener has been streaky, etc. The one constant threat we've had has been Hilton, which is why the Patriots played the coverage they did.

 

Long and short, your arguments are completely missing the point. 

[peytonmanning18]

Respectfully, we disagree.

If you're under the impression that anyone can catch passes from Luck and the Colts will be fine, then I disagree.

We need playmakers. The league is built on having playmakers. The more the better...

And since we just drafted/signed Andre Johnson, Phillip Dorsett and Donte Moncrief in the last 15 months, it looks like the front office doesn't agree with you either.

I'm not saying we pay Hilton anything his agent asks for..... but TY Hilton is a valuable piece that the Colts would like to bring back.... I hope we keep him.

Please tell me about all the "playmakers" that New England and Seattle have at wide receiver.

[CR91]

TY is going to leave.  He is a product of Andrew Luck and the Colts know that.  TY is going to want and deserve a huge contract, but he is going to have to go to somewhere like Oakland or Miami to get it and we'll never hear about him again.  

 

please tell me youre joking

[NewColtsFan]

Please tell me about all the "playmakers" that New England and Seattle have at wide receiver.

 

Why don't you ask Ryan Grigson.

[bababooey]

1) I use those links all the time. You've obviously missed them, given the way you're presenting your case in this thread.

 

2) There's a difference between a target and a catchable target. It's pointless to even mention raw targets when talking about catches/drops.

 

3) I'm sorry you're held captive by the outcome of one particular matchup, but that's simply not how it ever works. Even if you were right about Hilton against the Pats -- and again, you're not -- it wouldn't matter. CJ struggles against Revis. DT struggles against Vontae. You don't judge a player on based on his stats against one team. 

 

4) We weren't more equipped at WR/TE/RB against the Pats. As a matter of fact, we were practically threadbare, this season and last. Bradshaw was hurt in two of the three games, and was removed halfway through the third. We had basically nothing at WR but Hilton in 2013, and no one but him was playing at even a decent level down the stretch in 2014. We've been without Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Allen, stuck with Trent Richardson, have had no reliable WR3, little consistency in the run game, Fleener has been streaky, etc. The one constant threat we've had has been Hilton, which is why the Patriots played the coverage they did.

 

Long and short, your arguments are completely missing the point. 

How are my arguments missing the point? I provided links showing his numbers. My point is that he doesn't deserve the money those guys just made lol, do you want to compare straight up stats? Fantasy points? PPR or standard?

 

Sorry that I've never seen you use those links in the six months I followed every deflate gate argument, even during my combined two month forced sabbatical.

 

I LITERALLY said that the total targets shouldn't be used because they don't include interceptions/defended passes/overthrows which is why I included the article showing he has the most drops in the NFL in the playoffs up until the Broncos playoff game this past year.

 

Revis and Vontae are players, not teams. No matter who the Pats have out there, TY hasn't been able to do much against any of them outside of his first game where he was only a few games into his career.

 

We WERE more equipped going into the playoff game this past year than we were the year before or even in the regular season this past year. Pretty sure TY, Moncrief, Nicks,and even Reggie this year, as well as Fleener/Allen, and Boom/Tipton is a lot better group than the playoffs last year when we came in with TY, Whalen, and DHB, Fleener, and Richardson. The group we brought into NE this year is arguably better than what we put out their during the regular season as well. Although we had Bradshaw during that game he got injured, we also had Richardson, but Moncrief was not getting the time he was getting later in the season, and our O line didn't have much continuity until the playoffs where they played a lot better.

 

Again, the point is if TY thinks the bar is set and he will be on par with Dez and DT, he will be dissapointed by the Colts.

[peytonmanning18]

please tell me youre joking

I'm not joking

[bababooey]

Why don't you ask Ryan Grigson.

Wilson’s most targeted receivers over the last two seasons (including the playoffs) have been a pair of undrafted free agents, Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. His top receiver in the Super Bowl was undrafted rookie Chris Matthews, who had never caught an NFL pass before torching Kyle Arrington. That fateful interception was intended for another undrafted free agent, Ricardo Lockette. Outside of Marshawn Lynch, Wilson didn’t throw a single pass in the Super Bowl to a player who had been considered worthy of a draft pick by an NFL team.

 

https://grantland.com/the-triangle/tip-o-the-salary-cap-what-to-do-about-russell-wilson/

 

And they were one handoff/yard from being back to back World Champs. Maybe if he wants top money it's best to let him go, lord knows we need help in other spots and we did just take Dorsett.

[peytonmanning18]

Why don't you ask Ryan Grigson.

Why would I ask him?

[NewColtsFan]

Why would I ask him?

 

Because he's the guy you have issues with -- not me.

 

I didn't say one has to have playmakers at wide receiver,  but you have to have playmakers.

 

And Seattle has Marshawn Lynch.     Do you see anyone on the Colts who looks like him?    No.   Lynch makes average receivers play better.

 

New England has Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Brandon Lafell.    They've had enough weapons for Brady for 15 years.

 

But you have to have weapons.

 

I wouldn't have selected Dorsett,  I would've taken Goldman.   But Grigson/Irsay/Pagano want more weapons.

 

Your issue is with them.

[Superman]

How are my arguments missing the point? I provided links showing his numbers. My point is that he doesn't deserve the money those guys just made lol, do you want to compare straight up stats? Fantasy points? PPR or standard?

 

Sorry that I've never seen you use those links in the six months I followed every deflate gate argument, even during my combined two month forced sabbatical.

 

I LITERALLY said that the total targets shouldn't be used because they don't include interceptions/defended passes/overthrows which is why I included the article showing he has the most drops in the NFL in the playoffs up until the Broncos playoff game this past year.

 

Revis and Vontae are players, not teams. No matter who the Pats have out there, TY hasn't been able to do much against any of them outside of his first game where he was only a few games into his career.

 

We WERE more equipped going into the playoff game this past year than we were the year before or even in the regular season this past year. Pretty sure TY, Moncrief, Nicks,and even Reggie this year, as well as Fleener/Allen, and Boom/Tipton is a lot better group than the playoffs last year when we came in with TY, Whalen, and DHB, Fleener, and Richardson. The group we brought into NE this year is arguably better than what we put out their during the regular season as well. Although we had Bradshaw during that game he got injured, we also had Richardson, but Moncrief was not getting the time he was getting later in the season, and our O line didn't have much continuity until the playoffs where they played a lot better.

 

Again, the point is if TY thinks the bar is set and he will be on par with Dez and DT, he will be dissapointed by the Colts.

 

Your links don't show his numbers. They highlight a cherry picked cluster of stats that you think support your argument. 

 

I never argued that Hilton deserves Dez/DT money, and I don't think anyone else has, either. Strawman. I said he's a #1 WR.

 

You thinking that logical fallacies only exist in Deflategate threads is kind of like you thinking only Hilton's games against the Patriots count. And even in that case, I have used those links in Deflategate threads. I still don't understand why this matters.

 

Your drops link misses the mark, again, because the playoffs aren't the only games that matter. Even if you include playoff games, where Hilton has an increased number of drops (mostly due to the Bengals game, where he still had 6 catches for 103 yards), his 2014 total drop rate is still on par with DT and CJ, based on catchable passes. It was better than all of them in 2013. The only time Hilton has had a drops issue that would disqualify him from discussion as a #1 was in 2012. 

 

Even if we were marginally better at the skill positions in 2014, we were still not very good. Nicks and Reggie were completely ineffective, and Moncrief was shut down by Revis. Luck tried to work the ball underneath, but we still couldn't move the football. There were lots of offensive issues in that game, the least of which was TY Hilton. They doubled him almost the entire game, and you're acting like he was the problem. 

 

You've lurched from one flawed argument to the next in this thread. If you had simply said "I don't think he's as good as Dez and DT," I wouldn't have said anything, even though that's not the point of the thread to begin with. But your drops comment, your 'he can't produce against the Pats' comment, and then tacking on the 'he won't be paid like Dez and DT' comment, they're all just so far off the mark and completely miss the point. 

 

It's really simple: Hilton is really good, his production is commensurate with players that have recently been paid, and the market is pretty clearly set between $11m/year and $14m/year. If he stays here, he will most assuredly be somewhere in that range, and probably closer to the top of that range because of Mike Wallace. If he leaves, he could hit $14m/year or more, because the cap is going up, and free agency leads to inflated offers. That's the market. All the drops and 'what about the Pats games?' and 'he isn't as good as Dez and DT!' stuff won't matter if he actually hits free agency. Ask Ndamakung Suh.

[CR91]

Why would I ask him?

 

[NewColtsFan]

TY is going to leave.  He is a product of Andrew Luck and the Colts know that.  TY is going to want and deserve a huge contract, but he is going to have to go to somewhere like Oakland or Miami to get it and we'll never hear about him again.  

 

Just curious.....   but what makes you think Hilton is a product of Andrew Luck?

 

Were Harrison and Wayne the product of Peyton Manning?

 

Do you think Hilton is not going to be good if he goes to another team?

[Superman]

I love how some people seem to think that if there's a good team that doesn't have good receivers, it means receivers aren't important.

 

On Seattle's first three possessions in the SB, Wilson had zero completions, 2 sacks and one scramble. There's no way the Seahawks might have benefited from having better receivers...

[azcolt]

TY is going to leave.  He is a product of Andrew Luck and the Colts know that.  TY is going to want and deserve a huge contract, but he is going to have to go to somewhere like Oakland or Miami to get it and we'll never hear about him again.

I agree with you about Luck's impact, however, other teams' GM's are not stupid. If we can see it, so can they. He may get a better deal elsewhere but fortunately the Colts are not in a position where they must overpay.

[peytonmanning18]

I agree with you about Luck's impact, however, other teams' GM's are not stupid. If we can see it, so can they. He may get a better deal elsewhere but fortunately the Colts are not in a position where they must overpay.

 

When I envision TY Hilton as a free agent, I see Mike Wallace going from Pittsburgh to Miami for big money.  

[peytonmanning18]

Just curious.....   but what makes you think Hilton is a product of Andrew Luck?

 

Were Harrison and Wayne the product of Peyton Manning?

 

Do you think Hilton is not going to be good if he goes to another team?

 

Harrison and Wayne were good, but they were a product of Manning.  If Marvin Harrison had played for Cleveland he would have been out of the league by 2000.  

[Gavin]

When I envision TY Hilton as a free agent, I see Mike Wallace going from Pittsburgh to Miami for big money.  

Going with your theory that Hilton is a product of Luck...Then why did DHB suck while here? I mean he also played with Luck

[Indeee]

TY will get tagged. Bank on it. That gives Donte and Phillip 2 years respectively to develop along with possibly Carter. 2 years from now TY will walk and Johnson will be done. Colts are hoping for 2 year superbowl window. I'd be shocked if Colts gave Hilton anywhere near what he is gonna want

[Andrew Luck fan club]

TY will get tagged. Bank on it. That gives Donte and Phillip 2 years respectively to develop along with possibly Carter. 2 years from now TY will walk and Johnson will be done. Colts are hoping for 2 year superbowl window. I'd be shocked if Colts gave Hilton anywhere near what he is gonna want

This is what I see happening..

[RockThatBlue]

Because he can't get open against the one team we can't get past...

I understand what you're saying but a bad game doesn't mean he's not a #1 WR.

[southwest1]

TY is on a rookie 3rd round draft pick contract. He is going to go wherever he can get paid because this will most likely be the biggest contract of his career so he has to capitalize while he can. It's cute for fans to talk about loyalty and wanting to win but it's a business. Don't get attached to athletes.

You're aware of the irony of telling me that cautionary tale with the username of PeytonManning18 correct?    The central word being "attached"...

[peytonmanning18]

Going with your theory that Hilton is a product of Luck...Then why did DHB suck while here? I mean he also played with Luck

Because DHB sucks

[RealityIsLuck]

I'd give Hilton 5/50 with high g's (around 52%)

 

or 

 

5/60ish with lower g's (around 38%)

[Gavin]

Because DHB sucks

But....He should have been good according to your logic...He had Luck as his QB after all

[peytonmanning18]

But....He should have been good according to your logic...He had Luck as his QB after all

Do you honestly think that if TY Hilton played for the Jets and had Geno Smith throwing to him he would put up the same numbers as he does now?

[Lawrence Owen]

yeah, Superman is right, being a #1 receiver does not mean he is that same caliber as Megatron, Dez.  It Does mean however he is a Qb's #1 target, and that he is a top 10 WR in the NFL. 

Hilton gets double covered all the time.  He won't see those kind of coverage's this coming year if the WR corps stay healthy.  Being he has fined tuned his hands and route running working with Reggie the past few years to go along with his speed means he will still get the majority of the targets this year, even over A.j.. projecting that means he should actually have a better year statistically than last.

Hilton only real disadvantage is his size, and that is only a disadvantage in the redzone. This fact should drop his contract and is why i think he is a 12-12.5 mil/year qb instead of a 15 mil.

I just hope we can swing that kind of long term $ for a WR long term and not hurt our chances signing other needed players the next few years.

[Gavin]

Do you honestly think that if TY Hilton played for the Jets and had Geno Smith throwing to him he would put up the same numbers as he does now?

I don't think Jerry Rice would have put up near the numbers with Geno Smith as his QB that he did with Montana and Young, Nothing sort of Jesus himself would have put up good numbers with Geno without some divine interventiuon

[Malakai432]

Please tell me about all the "playmakers" that New England and Seattle have at wide receiver.

 

LaFell and Edleman are no slouches, w Gronk in the mix they have plenty of playmakers.  Seattle is a different story, not really many playmakers in their receiving core but they sure as heck are good at everything else.

[peytonmanning18]

LaFell and Edleman are no slouches, w Gronk in the mix they have plenty of playmakers. Seattle is a different story, not really many playmakers in their receiving core but they sure as heck are good at everything else.

LaFell? Seriously?

[Malakai432]

LaFell? Seriously?

 

Yes, of course LaFell.  Guy had a great season last year w the Patriots and has been solid for the Panthers for a couple years prior to that.  I didn't say he was a perennial stud WR, I just said he's not a slouch.  He had a better season than w anyone on our team besides for Hilton last year.

 

Colts receiving core wasn't great at all for that matter, you had Reggie coming off a terrible injury, didn't do much, a banged up Dwayne Allen, serviceable at best in the redzone, Moncrief, a rookie who didn't do much,  Fleener who was good, and Hilton who had a phenomenal year.  A core up to par with............welp the Patriots    

[Larry Horseman]

I don't understand why people don't want the Colts to pay TY $11-13 mill a year. He's a really good player. The cap is rising. The Colts can afford it with all the upcoming contracts and still be a balanced team as long as Grigs drafts well. What's the problem here? Players like TY don't grow on trees....

[James]

LaFell? Seriously?

Did you actually watch the games last year?

[NewColtsFan]

LaFell? Seriously?

 

LaFell was terrific last year.

 

Put it this way,  if he was with the Colts you'd be thrilled.

 

He's the inexpensive third wide receiver we've been looking for....   much better than Avery, DHB and Nicks....   wish we had signed him.

[ColtStronger]

I know I will probably take some criticism for this, but I don't really care!  I like TY, and he does deserve a good contract, but the way all of this is shaping up, I would rather see him walk (I very rarely want to see great players go), if he is going to ask for anything over 9.5!  Not that he isn't worth that, but I for one am extremely tired of seeing our OL and front 7 on defense get pounded by more athletic and powerful big men!  A football team needs balance, in which we really haven't ever seen from the Colts.  We've NEVER had a top 5 offense AND defense!  We have tried this model before with having a prolific offense, where we try to run teams out of the stadium, and it does work to some extent, but not in the playoffs!  Teams buckle down, and it gets dirty!  We have never had a defense that can line up to another prolific offense and shut them down, or at least contain them.  At that point it is always a shootout!

 

Many of you may wonder, what does this rant have to do with anything about TY.  Well, if you pay Luck, Costanzo, Fleener/Allen, among other players in the future, this team doesn't have the cap money to pay an elite WR top$.  IMHO, if a team has a top 5 QB, they don't NEED a top5 WR!  (Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rodgers)  Yes, all of these guys have had a top 5 WR, but mostly because the great QB made them look that good!  On the other hand a top 5-10 QB can put up great numbers with a top 5 WR, or solid overall WR corp (Stafford, Roethlisberger, E. Manning, P. Rivers)!  Notice the difference of the makeup of these teams also??  Most of these teams aren't only centered around the passing game, but also have a good run game and a good to great defense!  IMO, this model is a no brainer with a QB like Luck!  Manning, Brady, Brees, and Rodgers did it for years turning mediocre WR's into pro bowl caliber numbers!  Andrew can and will do it also (if he needs to)! 

 

Just imagine, instead of paying TY top$, and settling with Moncrief and Dorsett as the future (with other role players).  Then adding a JJ Watt, or Juston Houston, type player that will cause opposing QB's duress, force turnovers, or limit opposing offenses to moving the football on us like were an inferior amature team.  Don't you think we would still score about the same?  The defense wouldn't be the bend but don't break, rather than being go get that football back for Luck and company to shove it down their throats again.  Late in the games our defense wouldn't be worn out for being gashed all game allowing 100 yard rushers week in and week out, or letting a decent or heaven forbid a great QB throwing on us all day because we cannot generate a pass rush!

 

This is the model that the majority of the previous decade of SB winners have had.  It is all very clear to me, you must have balance, and not put all of your eggs in one basket!  I don't know why the team continues to head in this direction.  The big name free agents they got this year were Gore and Johnson (offensive threats).  Sure they also got Trent Cole, but is he a show stopper?  Anyway I would love to hear some input on the matter, and I do realize this should be in a different thread, but too little too late now lol 

[BleedBlu8792]

My thoughts: Dorsett is the replacement if bringing Hilton back doesn't work

You're just now putting this together..?

[BleedBlu8792]

Harrison and Wayne were good, but they were a product of Manning. If Marvin Harrison had played for Cleveland he would have been out of the league by 2000.

You're clearly very young or a recent Colts fan. You do realize Marvin was drafted in 96' and a had a couple of decent seasons with Harbaugh. The offensive changes with Manning coming on helped him every bit as much as bringing on Manning did. Harrison would have been fine no matter where he played.