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How the Bryant/Thomas contracts might impact TY Hilton's....


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NOTE:   sorry,  but there's tons of math in this post.  No way around that.   I've tried to keep it as simple as can be (especially for me!)

 

 

So.....    these are the terms for the deals being reported today....

 

-- Bryant 5/70 with 45 guaranteed and 20 of that in a signing bonus.

 

-- Thomas 5/70 with 43.5 guaranteed and 20 of that in a signing bonus.

 

Both player agree to lesser averages than Calvin Johnson, whose deal averages 15m (8/120)

 

But.....

 

Both players get a much higher percentage of guaranteed money than CJ did.   Megatron got 43.5 guaranteed out of 120.

 

Thomas gets the same 43.5 guaranteed out of 70 and Bryant gets 45 out of 70.  

 

Megatron's guaranteed money is roughly 36%

 

Bryants is roughly 64% and Thomas' is roughly 62%.     The percentage guaranteed is eye-popping!

 

A guess on Hilton's deal.....

 

5/60 with 36 guaranteed and 16 of that in a signing bonus.

 

At least there is now something of a framework where the Colts and Rosenhaus can negotiate.

 

The question becomes.....   does TYH see himself as the equal of Bryant and Thomas?    Or is he willing to slot in behind those two and take less?    And if he is,  HOW MUCH LESS?!?

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An important distinction at this point is that there's no old money on the Dez/DT contracts. All new money. So when comparing Hilton's new deal, which will likely be mostly about new money, depending on when it gets done, you have to account for that. I think his new money will be around $13m/year.

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I may be in the minority's here but I don't think their deals impact hiltons deal. Dez and Demaryious are on a different level from TY. They have the size of a #1 WR and put up better numbers than TY. I don't consider TY on the same level of Antonio Brown either, who is a more comparable WR.

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Two other WR's will factor into the TYH math....

 

AJ Green and Julio Jones.     Both are playing this year on the 5th year of their rookie deals.

 

Those two could slot in at 13M per and then perhaps TYH at 12 per...

 

Antonio Brown's deal is going to get complicated.    He got a new deal a year or two back and reportedly the Steelers are trying to do right by him with a re-adjust with multiple years left on the deal.    But those are always tricky....   far easier said than done...

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I may be in the minority's here but I don't think their deals impact hiltons deal. Dez and Demaryious are on a different level from TY. They have the size of a #1 WR and put up better numbers than TY. I don't consider TY on the same level of Antonio Brown either, who is a more comparable WR.

 

Even if Hilton and his agent agree that TY is not the equal of Bryant/Thomas,  their deals STILL impact Hilton's.

 

Their deals will be the reference point that Rosenhaus will negotiate from.    If he thinks his client is equal,  then he'll ask for 14 per.

 

If he's more reasonable and agrees that his client is somewhat less,  then he'll ask for less.   But he's still negotiating off the 14 figure.

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Well, i was calling for 1-11 mil/year.  so yes, i believe these contracts do effect T.Y's.  Even though he is not the size receiver those two, and megatron, are.  It still raised the bar for receivers as a whole. 

12-12.5 mil year i can see now for T.Y. .Prolly 25-30% guarantee'd.

And he will still be a majority shareholder of Lucks targets, and teams won't be focusing on 'tying him down' like they were last year.  So I actually think his #'s should actually go up, even with all the receiver talent we have now.

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Posted · Hidden by Nadine, July 16, 2015 - rude
Hidden by Nadine, July 16, 2015 - rude

TY is going to leave. He is a product of Andrew Luck and the Colts know that. TY is going to want and deserve a huge contract, but he is going to have to go to somewhere like Oakland or Miami to get it and we'll never hear about him again.

You should have stopped at your first sentence, after that was a train wreck.

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TY needs to not have as many drops this year if he wants number 1 money

I actually liked your post because I'm amused by that fact that neither Dez or Cowboys Nation still cannot accept the fact that #88 failed to complete the process/catch all the way to the ground in the Playoffs vs GB. 

 

Best play by Dallas all year IMHO.  haha Yeah, I know I'm taking too my glee in that. You're right I am & it always puts a devilish grin on my face too. 

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TY is going to leave.  He is a product of Andrew Luck and the Colts know that.  TY is going to want and deserve a huge contract, but he is going to have to go to somewhere like Oakland or Miami to get it and we'll never hear about him again.  

I think TY is smart enough to realize what an elite QB he has in Andrew Luck & that he'd be dumb to demand more money elsewhere for chemistry & touchdowns that might not come so easily in another city. 

 

While Carr is legit in Oakland, I don't see why TY would wanna leave the AFC South for KC, San Diego, & Denver especially when INDY has more or less dominated our division for the most part. Tannehill & the Dolphins aren't gonna be better than the Jets or the Bills defensively either. Suh's good but not lethal enough to overtake the AFC East crown all by himself even with Hilton on offense. 

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I don't think their contracts will affect T.Y's in any capacity. T.Y will probably ask for about 10-12 million a year anyway. And the only reason why I feel he'll get it is because of his postseason performances. He's shown up for the most part.

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I think TY is smart enough to realize what an elite QB he has in Andrew Luck & that he'd be dumb to demand more money elsewhere for chemistry & touchdowns that might not come so easily in another city.

While Carr is legit in Oakland, I don't see why TY would wanna leave the AFC South for KC, San Diego, & Denver especially when INDY has more or less dominated our division for the most part. Tannehill & the Dolphins aren't gonna be better than the Jets or the Bills defensively either. Suh's good but not lethal enough to overtake the AFC East crown all by himself even with Hilton on offense.

TY is on a rookie 3rd round draft pick contract. He is going to go wherever he can get paid because this will most likely be the biggest contract of his career so he has to capitalize while he can. It's cute for fans to talk about loyalty and wanting to win but it's a business. Don't get attached to athletes.

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TY shouldn't in reality get #1 Money cuz he is not a #1 wr, but if the Colts wanna keep him that's prolly what it will take since his agent is who it is. I have a feeling he won't b back especially if luck gets 28 mil year like some speculate and u drafted a similar guy being Dorsett when there were other glaring needs.

 

I don't know about TYH returning because I don't know how reasonable Rosenhaus will be....   (I would expect DR not to be very reasonable...)

 

That said,   I don't know who in the world is speculate Luck to get 28 Mill per?     I haven't seen anything higher than 25 Mill per, and most others have been lower than that....

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TY is going to leave. He is a product of Andrew Luck and the Colts know that. TY is going to want and deserve a huge contract, but he is going to have to go to somewhere like Oakland or Miami to get it and we'll never hear about him again.

How can one be a product of Andrew Luck and yet be deserving of a huge contract?

Colts have plenty of cap room next year. Top players like TY don't leave under these circumstances.

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1432670377-jess-jessica-day-32432367-500

 

I'm sure TY and his agent are watching this very closely. They are going to shoot for the moon. 

eh,...if shooting for the moon means 12-12.5/year, then ok.  He is not a 15 mil /year receiver, he knows that, his agent knows that...and so does everyone else in the NFL.  he'll get paid though.  And i am sure Irsay is pushing for a close to a contract.  he is a proven #1.  you take the dallas game away since he did not play, he made those yards/receptions in 15 games.  plus he missed 1/2 a game another time.  adding it up he would have had about 97 receptions for 1500ish yards.  THAT is #1 receiver numbers no matter how you cut it.  No corner can cover him 1 on 1 without help, that is another sign of a #1.  but he's not top 5 receiver yet,...next year he might prove he belongs in that category, be show back to back great seasons.  

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Even if Hilton and his agent agree that TY is not the equal of Bryant/Thomas,  their deals STILL impact Hilton's.

 

Their deals will be the reference point that Rosenhaus will negotiate from.    If he thinks his client is equal,  then he'll ask for 14 per.

 

If he's more reasonable and agrees that his client is somewhat less,  then he'll ask for less.   But he's still negotiating off the 14 figure.

 All that matters is what Others will pay to take him away.

 We have the great Andrew Luck so his value to us is greatly diminished. Spend the $$$ on O-Line and D. It is as simple as that.

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All that matters is what Others will pay to take him away.

We have the great Andrew Luck so his value to us is greatly diminished. Spend the $$$ on O-Line and D. It is as simple as that.

Yep. I think this will be the first true test for Grigson and company to show whether or not the Colts are serious about "balance" or if they are the same old Colts that pay exciting offensive stars big money.

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Yep. I think this will be the first true test for Grigson and company to show whether or not the Colts are serious about "balance" or if they are the same old Colts that pay exciting offensive stars big money.

I'm all for the balance, since the colts spent more money on defense than offense in each year grigson was the gm, with lackluster results..

Might as well pay the talent regardless of which side of the ball they play, for a change..

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TY shouldn't in reality get #1 Money cuz he is not a #1 wr, but if the Colts wanna keep him that's prolly what it will take since his agent is who it is. I have a feeling he won't b back especially if luck gets 28 mil year like some speculate and u drafted a similar guy being Dorsett when there were other glaring needs.

Did you not watch Hilton last year? He proved he is a #1 WR. I don't understand why people still say he's not.

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Because he can't get open against the one team we can't get past...

 

They double covered him the entire game. That's exactly the kind of attention you want your top option to get. Somebody else -- perhaps someone who isn't double covered??? -- needs to get open.

 

And even if you were right -- you're not, by the way -- what a player does against one team doesn't establish what kind of player he is, or what kind of value he has. That's like saying that because Luck hasn't played well against the Patriots, he's not a franchise QB.

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They double covered him the entire game. That's exactly the kind of attention you want your top option to get. Somebody else -- perhaps someone who isn't double covered??? -- needs to get open.

 

And even if you were right -- you're not, by the way -- what a player does against one team doesn't establish what kind of player he is, or what kind of value he has. That's like saying that because Luck hasn't played well against the Patriots, he's not a franchise QB.

If you think he is the same caliber as Dez, DT, and CJ and thus deserves that kind of money, then I'm very happy you aren't our GM.

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If you think he is the same caliber as Dez, DT, and CJ and thus deserves that kind of money, then I'm very happy you aren't our GM.

 

What are you talking about?

 

First, it was 'he has too many drops.' False.

 

Then, it was 'he can't get open against the Patriots.' Also false, and completely devoid of perspective.

 

Now, it's 'he's not as good as Dez, DT and CJ.' I never said he was, nor does he have to be in order to be a #1. And it's a false equivalency, as he's not that kind of player. He could eventually be as good as Antonio Brown, who is probably the most dangerous receiver in the league right now.

 

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What are you talking about?

I am saying his drops and inability to do anything against the one team we can't lose within three touchdowns means he does not deserve the same amount of money that Dez Bryant, Calvin Johnson, and D. Thomas make. Hopefully that will change this year since we are rolling into NE with AJ, a seasoned Moncrief, and Dorsett instead of Griff Whalen two years ago and a rookie Moncrief/injured Reggie last year.

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