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2015 projected salary cap number

HtownColt

By HtownColt
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Nesjan3 Ring of Honor

Nesjan3

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Its going to continue to rise. That's one reason I feel we should go hard after a couple guys like Houston, Dan Williams, McCourty, Iupati, etc.

I would say we sign our guys like Luck TY Allen and Fleener before going out and getting big names. After they are signed up then we can take it from there

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Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

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@djdurkin: The 2014 NFL cap total was $133M, a $10M jump from 2013 ($123M).

So it'll be at least a 5mil increase for 2015 more likely more if the minimum is 138mil

 

Went up about 8% last year, which was more than what they projected. They also had borrowed from future projections in previous years to get the cap to move up slightly, so the real jump in relevant revenue was probably more than 8%. I think people expected 2015 to be the year that a big jump would happen, so I think we can expect the same 8%, at the least. That would put the cap in the $144m range. There may be expenses related to legacy pensions and concussion lawsuits and stuff like that, but revenue definitely went up. Even if the cap only goes up 6%, you're still looking at around $141m. My conservative pro-guess-tion has always been $140m.

 

The Colts have taken on a little extra money lately. So, according to Spotrac, they're about $10.3m under the 2014 cap. I assume they'll roll that forward. If the cap is $140m, and you add in what gets rolled forward, the Colts cap goes up to $150.3m in 2015. The obligations going into 2015, prior to any releases or restricted free agent tenders, are $107m. That's $43.3m in cap space going into the new league year. If the cap goes up more like the 8% it did last year, then that's $47m in cap space.

 

I think, $8-10m for RFAs, $4-5m for draft picks, and you still have $35m+ to re-sign your free agents (Butler, Brown, Adams, that's really it, unless, Hasselbeck, Redding and Wayne want to stick around, but they won't get a lot of money), and maybe start extending guys from the 2012 draft class. And, of course, there's room to grab guys from free agency, but probably no real high dollar guys.

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SteelCityColt Hall of Famer

SteelCityColt

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Went up about 8% last year, which was more than what they projected.

 

Edited for brevity. 

 

An excellent and concise breakdown as usual Supes. Be interested to see what you think about the situations of some teams for next year even if the cap does go up. Some bad situations it looks like, according to overthecap, for:

 

NO $160,010,991

MIA $142,026,177 

ARI $149,843,495

SF  $149,597,212

 

I've not factored any roll over into the above, this is just what they're slated to be on contract for if I understand correctly. It really does look like the Saints went for bust this year and well... bust. Could be some interesting cap casualties from those teams, especially on D.  

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Yoshinator Ring of Honor

Yoshinator

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Went up about 8% last year, which was more than what they projected. They also had borrowed from future projections in previous years to get the cap to move up slightly, so the real jump in relevant revenue was probably more than 8%. I think people expected 2015 to be the year that a big jump would happen, so I think we can expect the same 8%, at the least. That would put the cap in the $144m range. There may be expenses related to legacy pensions and concussion lawsuits and stuff like that, but revenue definitely went up. Even if the cap only goes up 6%, you're still looking at around $141m. My conservative pro-guess-tion has always been $140m.

 

The Colts have taken on a little extra money lately. So, according to Spotrac, they're about $10.3m under the 2014 cap. I assume they'll roll that forward. If the cap is $140m, and you add in what gets rolled forward, the Colts cap goes up to $150.3m in 2015. The obligations going into 2015, prior to any releases or restricted free agent tenders, are $107m. That's $43.3m in cap space going into the new league year. If the cap goes up more like the 8% it did last year, then that's $47m in cap space.

 

I think, $8-10m for RFAs, $4-5m for draft picks, and you still have $35m+ to re-sign your free agents (Butler, Brown, Adams, that's really it, unless, Hasselbeck, Redding and Wayne want to stick around, but they won't get a lot of money), and maybe start extending guys from the 2012 draft class. And, of course, there's room to grab guys from free agency, but probably no real high dollar guys.

This is just my opinion, but I think we should just grab Iupati and that's it in Free Agency this year. This does two things: 1.) It allows us to get a quality FA that can fill a big, gaping hole at G. 2.) By only signing 1 FA, it allows us to get a couple compensatory picks in the following year's draft (depending on the quality of players we let go). We need to start building through the draft like the Packers and Ravens do. As much as I like Grigson, this is why Ozzie Newsome and Ted Thompson are the best GM's in the business, they pile up compensatory picks and build through the draft every year with homegrown talent. Grigson needs to mimic that, now that we aren't dependent on Free Agents to give the team a boost anymore.

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ztboiler Practice Squad

ztboiler

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Went up about 8% last year, which was more than what they projected. They also had borrowed from future projections in previous years to get the cap to move up slightly, so the real jump in relevant revenue was probably more than 8%. I think people expected 2015 to be the year that a big jump would happen, so I think we can expect the same 8%, at the least. That would put the cap in the $144m range. There may be expenses related to legacy pensions and concussion lawsuits and stuff like that, but revenue definitely went up. Even if the cap only goes up 6%, you're still looking at around $141m. My conservative pro-guess-tion has always been $140m.

 

The Colts have taken on a little extra money lately. So, according to Spotrac, they're about $10.3m under the 2014 cap. I assume they'll roll that forward. If the cap is $140m, and you add in what gets rolled forward, the Colts cap goes up to $150.3m in 2015. The obligations going into 2015, prior to any releases or restricted free agent tenders, are $107m. That's $43.3m in cap space going into the new league year. If the cap goes up more like the 8% it did last year, then that's $47m in cap space.

 

I think, $8-10m for RFAs, $4-5m for draft picks, and you still have $35m+ to re-sign your free agents (Butler, Brown, Adams, that's really it, unless, Hasselbeck, Redding and Wayne want to stick around, but they won't get a lot of money), and maybe start extending guys from the 2012 draft class. And, of course, there's room to grab guys from free agency, but probably no real high dollar guys.

I don't think we have 51 players to count toward 2015 cap obligations yet.  I think we'll need 10-12 minimum contracts to be full.  So that $107M may be $111-112M, but either way we have a lot of cap space.  

 

If Grigs continues to play the game the way he has, he'll only use the rollover to absorb future cap hits rather than extend our near term reach.

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Smash Mouth Practice Squad

Smash Mouth

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Went up about 8% last year, which was more than what they projected. They also had borrowed from future projections in previous years to get the cap to move up slightly, so the real jump in relevant revenue was probably more than 8%. I think people expected 2015 to be the year that a big jump would happen, so I think we can expect the same 8%, at the least. That would put the cap in the $144m range. There may be expenses related to legacy pensions and concussion lawsuits and stuff like that, but revenue definitely went up. Even if the cap only goes up 6%, you're still looking at around $141m. My conservative pro-guess-tion has always been $140m.

 

The Colts have taken on a little extra money lately. So, according to Spotrac, they're about $10.3m under the 2014 cap. I assume they'll roll that forward. If the cap is $140m, and you add in what gets rolled forward, the Colts cap goes up to $150.3m in 2015. The obligations going into 2015, prior to any releases or restricted free agent tenders, are $107m. That's $43.3m in cap space going into the new league year. If the cap goes up more like the 8% it did last year, then that's $47m in cap space.

 

I think, $8-10m for RFAs, $4-5m for draft picks, and you still have $35m+ to re-sign your free agents (Butler, Brown, Adams, that's really it, unless, Hasselbeck, Redding and Wayne want to stick around, but they won't get a lot of money), and maybe start extending guys from the 2012 draft class. And, of course, there's room to grab guys from free agency, but probably no real high dollar guys.

This is good info - could never have figured this out on my own.

 

So Grigson has to get our own guys signed, have a really solid draft, and find some middle of the road FAs to plug holes and add depth. I think Hasselbeck and Reggie might be ready for the life after football but Redding is interesting.  He probably has more value to us than most any other team but when will age catch up to him.  I don't see a young guy on this roster ready to step into his slot.  I can live with re-signing Butler, Brown, and Adams.  I think it will hurt that we let two young DBs go for various reasons.  Now Grigson has to spend money on depth there.  

 

Similar issues on the OL where there doesn't seem to be much faith in Holmes and Thorton can't stay on the field on a consistent basis.  They are two guys that we need to pan out and not have to reinvest in their positions other than for depth. I assume that Harris stays and I bet Shipley will be on the fence.  Gosder has to be replaced and we should extend Costanzo.  Costanzo will get over paid though but that's the system.

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Valpo2004 Active Roster

Valpo2004

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What kind of cap space are we looking at?

Superman did an estimate of about 43.3 to 47 mil with rollover from this year and cap increase.  

 

A lot of extensions to consider after this season though.  Next season is the last on contract for Castanzo, TY, Allen, Fleener, Chapman, etc.  Luck has the 5th year option that we will pick up next season so he's good for another year.  However the guys I just listed we'll probably look at extending just to make sure we have them wrapped up.  

 

We might be able to bring in a few new players in FA, but I think we'll have to mostly stand pat.   Too many big extensions to worry about.

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Smonroe Ring of Honor

Smonroe

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Hardly. Allen coming back has been his biggest asset. Still below average athlete. Always will be.

If you want to be confused by actual facts, read Ben Gundy's analysis. AC is a decent LT. And he is, without any doubt, our best lineman.

Talk of replacing him with someone cheaper is moronic, IMHO.

You have a right to your opinion, even if you're dead wrong in mine. Carry on.

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Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

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This is good info - could never have figured this out on my own.

 

So Grigson has to get our own guys signed, have a really solid draft, and find some middle of the road FAs to plug holes and add depth. I think Hasselbeck and Reggie might be ready for the life after football but Redding is interesting.  He probably has more value to us than most any other team but when will age catch up to him.  I don't see a young guy on this roster ready to step into his slot.  I can live with re-signing Butler, Brown, and Adams.  I think it will hurt that we let two young DBs go for various reasons.  Now Grigson has to spend money on depth there.  

 

Similar issues on the OL where there doesn't seem to be much faith in Holmes and Thorton can't stay on the field on a consistent basis.  They are two guys that we need to pan out and not have to reinvest in their positions other than for depth. I assume that Harris stays and I bet Shipley will be on the fence.  Gosder has to be replaced and we should extend Costanzo.  Costanzo will get over paid though but that's the system.

 

I think Grigson took this approach last offseason. Jones was a big signing, which I really didn't expect, but we weren't major players in FA. The focus was on bringing in young guys and developing the drafted players we already had. I think that will be the same, just different needs that might be addressed in free agency, and mostly depth guys, like DB.

 

Also, I think the young linemen we have are going to continue getting chances to develop and play major roles. I don't see another big lineman signing. Maybe we'll draft a tackle this year, but Grigson is pretty committed to his board and doesn't reach for perceived need. 

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Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

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An excellent and concise breakdown as usual Supes. Be interested to see what you think about the situations of some teams for next year even if the cap does go up. Some bad situations it looks like, according to overthecap, for:

 

NO $160,010,991

MIA $142,026,177 

ARI $149,843,495

SF  $149,597,212

 

I've not factored any roll over into the above, this is just what they're slated to be on contract for if I understand correctly. It really does look like the Saints went for bust this year and well... bust. Could be some interesting cap casualties from those teams, especially on D.  

 

The Saints are a mess. They have to shed a lot of salary just to be compliant. I'm sure they'll extend Brees and drop his cap hit from $26.4m down to about $20m, conservatively, but they still have a lot of work to do. They can restructure Galette's roster bonus and easily create $10m in cap space. Either Grubbs or Evans has to go, or both. You can't pay two guards $20m. Get rid of Evans, who's older and whose release would save the most money, and that's another $6m. That brings them down to $137.6m, and under the cap. They can still trim a few more contracts and create more space, and load up some contracts for new players with heavier hits in 2016 when the dead money from those releases falls off. Still, for a team that's probably not going to make the playoffs, and will probably finish 4 games behind the last wild card team, that's not a good situation. It's even worse because their big ticket signings from 2014 -- both Graham and Byrd -- haven't lived up to their contracts, and are virtually untouchable.

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husker61 Active Roster

husker61

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almost all the teams that sign the big contract free agents end up not winning and in cap purgatory. so glad posters aren't the colts gm!!!!! you win consistently by keeping or trading for more draft picks and putting resources into college scouting, not free agents!

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SteelCityColt Hall of Famer

SteelCityColt

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The Saints are a mess. They have to shed a lot of salary just to be compliant. I'm sure they'll extend Brees and drop his cap hit from $26.4m down to about $20m, conservatively, but they still have a lot of work to do. They can restructure Galette's roster bonus and easily create $10m in cap space. Either Grubbs or Evans has to go, or both. You can't pay two guards $20m. Get rid of Evans, who's older and whose release would save the most money, and that's another $6m. That brings them down to $137.6m, and under the cap. They can still trim a few more contracts and create more space, and load up some contracts for new players with heavier hits in 2016 when the dead money from those releases falls off. Still, for a team that's probably not going to make the playoffs, and will probably finish 4 games behind the last wild card team, that's not a good situation. It's even worse because their big ticket signings from 2014 -- both Graham and Byrd -- haven't lived up to their contracts, and are virtually untouchable.

 

Thanks for the in depth answer. Do you think there's a chance they let Colston go? They've also got to factor in resigning Cameron Jordan at some point so do you think they get it done early and back load his contract?

I'd expect to see the likes of Bush and Thomas shown the door two but they're small fry really in terms of contract size. 

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Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

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I don't think we have 51 players to count toward 2015 cap obligations yet. I think we'll need 10-12 minimum contracts to be full. So that $107M may be $111-112M, but either way we have a lot of cap space.

If Grigs continues to play the game the way he has, he'll only use the rollover to absorb future cap hits rather than extend our near term reach.

As of right now, we have 41 contracts for 2015, by my count. After we sign a handful of futures guys and tender our RFAs, we'll be above 51. Your projection is probably right, but of course, the futures contracts won't count against the top 51 once we start making moves in March.

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Superman Ring of Honor

Superman

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Thanks for the in depth answer. Do you think there's a chance they let Colston go? They've also got to factor in resigning Cameron Jordan at some point so do you think they get it done early and back load his contract?

I'd expect to see the likes of Bush and Thomas shown the door two but they're small fry really in terms of contract size. 

 

Barnwell's take on the Saints: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/new-orleans-saints-salary-cap/

 

To answer your question, I think there's a chance Colston could go. He's not producing very much, but I don't know how much of that is his fault.

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