What year do most young qbs "figure it out?"

[Trace Pyott]

I was looking at Peyton and lucks stats for their first 2 years and was wondering at what point do young qbs figure it out. Basically when do you know what you are going to get and quit giving the "he's young excuse?" Between What two years do you usually see the most improvements?

[buccolts]

I was looking at Peyton and lucks stats for their first 2 years and was wondering at what point do young qbs figure it out. Basically when do you know what you are going to get and quit giving the "he's young excuse?" Between What two years do you usually see the most improvements?

2006

[Trace Pyott]

Huh? I mean like year 3 or whatever year of their career.

[Trace Pyott]

For instance do they improve most between year 2 and 3 or year 5 and 6

[21isSuperman]

People usually say the biggest jump is rookie to year 2 simply because you learn so much as a rookie.  I would guess it varies for each QB based on things like how pro-ready he was in college, how many offensive coordinators he goes through, etc.  I would guess the rookie to year 2 transition gives you the biggest jump, but you will continue to improve year 2 to 3, 3 to 4, 4 to 5, etc.

[1yrdandacloudofdust]

I don't think you should compare anyone to Peyton. Peyton is just special. And if what he does could be taught, I'm sure he would've shared it with Eli.

I fell into the trap expecting Luck to be like Manning. Mainly beacuse all you hear is about how smart he is. Well Eli scored just as high on the wonderlic, so it's about more than smarts.

[HtownColt]

Year 3, ESPN numbers never lie did a whiteboard thing on it with Luck saying they have a career high in TDs and 17% increase in passer rating and so on

[Poster X]

Everyone is different, but I would venture to say that most quarterbacks start hitting their stride by year number 3. That seems to be when the magic starts to happen for most.

[buccolts]

I know what you meant.

It was a Manning reference.

To your question, there's no one answer, but there's certainly an average.

A long time ago it was considered to be 3 to 4 years, but I have no idea what stats would indicate.

[Trace Pyott]

Thanks guys. As for the manning comparison I know you cannot compare anyone with manning especially his stays. He is the babe Ruth of football. When I say that I mean he is a once in a generation maybe lifetime type player. I was looking at his stats and they are just ridiculous especially when comparing them with other great players. I believe it was joe montana had 0 years of 4000 yRds while manning has like 13 lol. I know it's a different league but manning was putting up gawdy numbers before the rule changes. I may be wrong but isn't Peyton on pace to break the td record by mid this year?

[relishfunk]

That's why they call it "third year leap"

[buccolts]

To me putting up big stats doesn't necessarily mean "figuring it out".

To me 2006 is when PM figured out that winning wasn't all about chucking the ball all over the yard.

[Gavin]

Depends on what you mean by "figure it out"......He is going to throw more bad picks...all QB's do over the course of there career...Peyton Manning to this day will still throw a pass that leaves everyone scratching there heads...The key is to limit those which Luck did last year, Now if you mean when will Andrew put up the production the likes of what Tom Brady has, Drew Brees has, Aaron Rodgers has, Peyton has......Then you could find yourself very disappointed...Maybe not however but I think he has a lot of Brett Favre in him...That's good and bad, He will make some jaw dropping plays but other times will leave you scratching your head wondering why in the hell did he throw that pass....That's just who he is right now and I don't think that will go away, I think he gets antsy in the pocket and a bit overexcited and that leads to some bad overthrows.....I think that will go an even longer way to his production going up if he can remain calm see the whole field and not latch onto one player.....But every QB needs there go to guy almost. I think he needs to work on the little details, Watch some footage of Manning as a Colt with Edge to see how he performed his play action...The difference is night and day, He lifts his back foot on some instances when throwing the ball to...minor details...When he gets the minor details down...when someone points those out...Then the entire league regardless of name or team better look out...Getting him a run game to compliment him would go A LONG WAY as well

[krunk]

I don't think Peyton ever "got it" under Mora, I mean he was good, but I don't think he started taking the steps to becoming elite until Dungy came in 2002.  To me Dungy was able to get Peyton to calm down, start taking check downs and stop forcing the ball into coverage and trust the defense after playing behind mostly crappy D in his young career.  Manning was drafted in 1998 I believe so that's about a 4 year gap so I have to agree with others who say around year 3 or 4, but there's still continual growth and learning that is imperative even after that.

[NewColtsFan]

I think for most young quarterbacks,  the game starts to "slow down" and they start to "get it" somewhere around year 3.

 

But, it's not like they don't improve beyond that.

 

The great ones are driven to always strive to get better,  or certainly strive to make sure their talent doesn't fade.

 

So,  while real improvement can really be seen around year 3,  you'll see more improvement in many years after that.

 

Another issue is this....   sometimes the improvement comes late when a QB who hasn't shown much suddenly connects with a much better head coach and OC.    And suddenly,  the QB is a much better player than anyone ever thought possible.

 

That happens too......

 

I don't think there's a simple, straightforward answer to your question.   It's more nuanced than that.....

[SteelCityColt]

I think for most young quarterbacks,  the game starts to "slow down" and they start to "get it" somewhere around year 3.

 

But, it's not like they don't improve beyond that.

 

The great ones are driven to always strive to get better,  or certainly strive to make sure their talent doesn't fade.

 

So,  while real improvement can really be seen around year 3,  you'll see more improvement in many years after that.

 

Another issue is this....   sometimes the improvement comes late when a QB who hasn't shown much suddenly connects with a much better head coach and OC.    And suddenly,  the QB is a much better player than anyone ever thought possible.

 

That happens too......

 

I don't think there's a simple, straightforward answer to your question.   It's more nuanced than that.....

 

Good points NCF, development of players in any sport is never a straight line equation, and for team sports it's even more opaque. Personality of a player has a huge impact IMO. 

 

You also need to factor in the changes in the game itself that QBs need to adapt to and also how they affect up and coming players. For instance it seems to me that for QB prospects now mobility is almost a "must" it would seem so are we going to see players who would have made fantastic QBs in the pocket passer mould not develop as they get less opportunists at collegiate level for example. 

[Coltsman1788]

Nice thread.

[NewEra]

They already showed pregame that Luck has blown away pretty much all records in his first two seasons. The only one being for rushing td's which can Newton holds. Luck in his first 2 seasons is past Manning his first 2 seasons. So it's coming. When it clicks? Who knows? To me that's when he starts using all his weapons. Making calls at the line. Using his check downs. Being more consistent with his throws.

[lollygagger8]

If we could've just kept Arians as a QB coach......

[IndyD4U]

I stopped reading after the first 8 words.

[Valpo2004]

You know for another thread I was looking at passer ratings for a couple different QB's and there seems to be a variation.  

 

Peyton had a passer rating in the 90's in year 2 and it's pretty much stayed at 90 or above for the rest of his career save year 4 and 5.

 

Tom Brady was mid 80's until his 4th year starting (5th year overall).  But he still drops back to the high 80's a couple times in his career.

 

Drew Brees actually had a passer rating in the 70's and 60's until his 3rd year starting (4th year overall)  He also never clears 4000 yards until he plays for the Saints in his 5th year of starting. 

 

Rodgers doesn't start until his 4th year in the league but his passer rating starts off at 93.8 in his first year starting and after that never dips below 100.

 

Matt Ryan starts at 87.7, dips to 80.9 in year 2 and then gets into the low 90's in year 3 and pretty much hangs around that range for the rest of his career except for a great year in 2012 that he jumps to 99.1

 

Rivers starts great in his 1st year starting 3rd year in the league at 92.0, dips in his 2nd year starting to 82.4 and then takes off and stays above 100 for 3 years, then drops into the high 80's for 2 years, but rebounds last year to 105.5

 

Passer rating is of course a limiting stat but if you use it as a barometer of how good of a season they have had overall then all I can say is it really depends on the QB.

 

But some take until year 4 or 5 starting to make the jump.  

[Surge89]

If we could've just kept Arians as a QB coach......

 

No kidding.  I completely disagree with Arians as a play caller or offensive coordinator, but lordy can he groom QB's and get them out of their shell.  Of course that leads to some bad habits too... soooo lol... Maybe just let him HC, since he seems made for it.

[Surge89]

I think for most young quarterbacks,  the game starts to "slow down" and they start to "get it" somewhere around year 3.

 

But, it's not like they don't improve beyond that.

 

The great ones are driven to always strive to get better,  or certainly strive to make sure their talent doesn't fade.

 

So,  while real improvement can really be seen around year 3,  you'll see more improvement in many years after that.

 

Another issue is this....   sometimes the improvement comes late when a QB who hasn't shown much suddenly connects with a much better head coach and OC.    And suddenly,  the QB is a much better player than anyone ever thought possible.

 

That happens too......

 

I don't think there's a simple, straightforward answer to your question.   It's more nuanced than that.....

 

Such a great thread!

Also I think this is probably the best answer you can give.

[Drew1023]

I know I'm going to be attacked for saying this but I think everyone is really off base.  I'm sure there are better ways to do this but look at the year by year stats of each quarterback.  For reference I have Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees.  Go through and look at their stats and you'll find many of them did not become consistently great until their 4th to 6th year.  The only one that contradicts this is Rodgers who has put up great stats from the first year he played a full 16 games but that didn't occur until his fourth year or Manning who also put up great third year numbers but then declined..  Also, Luck is by far, by far the superior running quarterback.  Rodgers put up some numbers rushing in his early career but even that pales in comparison to Luck's rushing stats.  You can also make the case that the league is more pass friendly now but I don't see how you accurately factor that into the argument.  I'd argue that Luck is just as good if not better than many of them were in their early careers.  Does that mean he is an elite quarterback? I don't think so, not yet anyway but neither were any of the other quarterbacks I listed in their first 3 years.  Going back to the original question though I'd say give him at least a couple more years to become an elite quarterback and really reach his full potential.

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/peytonmanning/2501863/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/drewbrees/2504775/profile

http://www.nfl.com/player/aaronrodgers/2506363/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/tombrady/2504211/careerstats

 

and Andrew Luck

http://www.nfl.com/player/andrewluck/2533031/careerstats

[OffensivelyPC]

1st to 2nd year is the biggest.  Generally, if they haven't "figured" it out by year 3, then you won't see much improvement over that particular QBs career (EDIT: QBs always improve, but what I meant was, after year 3, the improvement is minimal).  There are always exceptions, but that's the general rule.

[OffensivelyPC]

I know I'm going to be attacked for saying this but I think everyone is really off base.  I'm sure there are better ways to do this but look at the year by year stats of each quarterback.  For reference I have Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees.  Go through and look at their stats and you'll find many of them did not become consistently great until their 4th to 6th year.  The only one that contradicts this is Rodgers who has put up great stats from the first year he played a full 16 games but that didn't occur until his fourth year or Manning who also put up great third year numbers but then declined..  Also, Luck is by far, by far the superior running quarterback.  Rodgers put up some numbers rushing in his early career but even that pales in comparison to Luck's rushing stats.  You can also make the case that the league is more pass friendly now but I don't see how you accurately factor that into the argument.  I'd argue that Luck is just as good if not better than many of them were in their early careers.  Does that mean he is an elite quarterback? I don't think so, not yet anyway but neither were any of the other quarterbacks I listed in their first 3 years.  Going back to the original question though I'd say give him at least a couple more years to become an elite quarterback and really reach his full potential.

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/peytonmanning/2501863/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/drewbrees/2504775/profile

http://www.nfl.com/player/aaronrodgers/2506363/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/tombrady/2504211/careerstats

 

and Andrew Luck

http://www.nfl.com/player/andrewluck/2533031/careerstats

I think statistical improvement isn't necessarily a good measure for developing as a QB, especially when those stats are tied to the players around him.  I think what the OP was getting at is improvement of the QBs skill set - i.e. throwin mechanics, pocket awareness and presence, footwork, reading defenses, etc. 

[Drew1023]

1st to 2nd year is the biggest.  Generally, if they haven't "figured" it out by year 3, then you won't see any more improvement over that particular QBs career.  There are always exceptions, but that's the general rule.

 

I think 1st to 2nd only shows if you are a flop or not.  I can't find many quarterbacks that put up great numbers their second year.  The majority simply go from being poor to average.  So in essence you are correct, the leap from poor to average is a great leap but it doesn't tell you anything about their full potential.

[Drew1023]

I think statistical improvement isn't necessarily a good measure for developing as a QB, especially when those stats are tied to the players around him.  I think what the OP was getting at is improvement of the QBs skill set - i.e. throwin mechanics, pocket awareness and presence, footwork, reading defenses, etc. 

 

I'll give you that but its the only completely objective measure. Maybe, I'm mistaken though.  How would you objectively measure those traits if not using stats? 

[OffensivelyPC]

I'll give you that but its the only completely objective measure. Maybe, I'm mistaken though.  How would you objectively measure those traits if not using stats? 

You really don't except through comparing and analyzing film.  And the thing about analyzing film is people can disagree about what something tells you - just like statistics.  In the end, you do the best you can with the information available and come to a conclusion, because there is no perfect science to measure player development.  If that were the case, the draft would be 5 rounds long and there wouldn't be any such thing as a bust or sleeper.

[throwing BBZ]

 A QB probably needs about 30 starts to prove himself.

 Mannings big jump was in year 6, after the Steeler Playoff beat down. His spiral got tighter/more consistent, his precision and timing to all of his weapons jumped.
 He no longer averaged 20 Int a season.

 

 IMO, Years 4-5 is when the internal clock gets there for many. Unless you are Dan Marino.

[throwing BBZ]

I know I'm going to be attacked for saying this but I think everyone is really off base.  I'm sure there are better ways to do this but look at the year by year stats of each quarterback.  For reference I have Manning, Brady, Rodgers and Brees.  Go through and look at their stats and you'll find many of them did not become consistently great until their 4th to 6th year.  The only one that contradicts this is Rodgers who has put up great stats from the first year he played a full 16 games but that didn't occur until his fourth year or Manning who also put up great third year numbers but then declined..  Also, Luck is by far, by far the superior running quarterback.  Rodgers put up some numbers rushing in his early career but even that pales in comparison to Luck's rushing stats.  You can also make the case that the league is more pass friendly now but I don't see how you accurately factor that into the argument.  I'd argue that Luck is just as good if not better than many of them were in their early careers.  Does that mean he is an elite quarterback? I don't think so, not yet anyway but neither were any of the other quarterbacks I listed in their first 3 years.  Going back to the original question though I'd say give him at least a couple more years to become an elite quarterback and really reach his full potential.

 

http://www.nfl.com/player/peytonmanning/2501863/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/drewbrees/2504775/profile

http://www.nfl.com/player/aaronrodgers/2506363/careerstats

http://www.nfl.com/player/tombrady/2504211/careerstats

 

and Andrew Luck

http://www.nfl.com/player/andrewluck/2533031/careerstats

 

 Give you a star for this post Drew. Right on.

[ztboiler]

No kidding.  I completely disagree with Arians as a play caller or offensive coordinator, but lordy can he groom QB's and get them out of their shell.  Of course that leads to some bad habits too... soooo lol... Maybe just let him HC, since he seems made for it.

Whether people like Arian's scheme and play calling or not, he might have been the perfect fit for Luck as a rookie and left him (and therefore all of us) a gift that will keep on giving for many years.  He taught Luck to let 'er rip and throw into tight windows.  You can become a better decision-maker, but its really difficult to learn to throw receivers open if you don't have an aggressive coach empowering you to do it.  I'm not sure that Pep and Pagano would have the mentality to teach this mindset to Luck....and it is has been a great supplement to Luck's inherent resilience and clarity for performance at winning time.

[B~Town]

Year 3 I would say you learn a lot about there future but so many different types of QB's and situations . Some come out hot and flame out in a few years some sit and learn some start right have growing pains  . I think every QB is different some learn faster some don't learn at all but by year 3 you can tell if the game is slowing down to them or not .

[JoKeR]

It's called the 3rd year leap

[Surge89]

Whether people like Arian's scheme and play calling or not, he might have been the perfect fit for Luck as a rookie and left him (and therefore all of us) a gift that will keep on giving for many years.  He taught Luck to let 'er rip and throw into tight windows.  You can become a better decision-maker, but its really difficult to learn to throw receivers open if you don't have an aggressive coach empowering you to do it.  I'm not sure that Pep and Pagano would have the mentality to teach this mindset to Luck....and it is has been a great supplement to Luck's inherent resilience and clarity for performance at winning time.

 

Right, thats why I said he is one heck of a QB groomer.  The issue is those QB's usually form some bad habits (see Peyton, Ben, Luck) lol.  Not taking anything away from them but they do have issues of forcing balls and interceptions at some point in their career. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

Year 3 may be the big leap in stats (that study was using only the last 10 #1 overall QB draft picks that started at least 10 games in year 3though), but could be longer before the ability to recognize coverage and blitzes, the ability to make a proper audible and rearrange protections is when the young QB has it figured out.

 

With Romeo Crennell, Bill Belichick, etc drawing up schemes to confuse Peyton, it took beyond year 3 for Peyton to be Peyton. But there is not a D or variations of a D alignment Peyton hasn't seen, and Peyton can recognize and check into the right play, even without a hurry up.  Peyton did use no huddle to keep mismatches though, but he is now huddling more than ever these days in Denver.

 

Luck is still learning all of the defenses out there, and various disguises they try to employ to confuse him. He seems to do well in a hurry up / no huddle situation exploiting mismatches and tiring the D.  But he is like any other QB.  pressure is his kryptonite.  All QB's drop dramatically in their ability to make plays.  And Our O line has allowed Luck to sacked and hit at a higher rate than any other organization over two seasons and two games.  Some are cover sacks, or Luck not seeing the open man at times still.  Give any decent QB time in a still pocket and they can excel.  IMO, we need to give Luck more time and get his comfort and confidence back up. Not ask him to run or do more 3 yard slants, check downs, and running.

[CroatianColtsFan21]

talking about the 3rd year leap, andrew's 3rd season didn't really get off to a good start... just sayin'...

[ReMeDy]

It's always year 3. That's the round-table talking point the NFL analysts always bring up. That's why it was so alarming for QB's, like Blaine Gabbert, who were in year 3 and still not getting it. That's a good indication the team needs to pull the plug, and the Jaguars did just that.

[CroatianColtsFan21]

i know it's a small sample size and anything can happen in the remaining 14 games, but as of now, andrew is on pace to finish this season at:

 

attempts / td / int / percent / yards / rating

    696   / 40 / 24 /    63,2   / 4336 /   85,5         i expect everything to drop, except percentage and rating..

 

and for comparison:

 

2013 season:

    570  / 23 /  9  /    60,2   / 3822 /    87,0

 

2012 season:

    627 / 23 / 18  /    54,1   / 4374 /    76,5