The Colts running backs: Fan Perception vs Actual performance

[Mouthfire]

Just a quick thread to follow up on the other season-long thread:

http://forums.colts....w/page__st__120

There are a couple of fan perceptions that keep popping up on the forums. I thought it would be interesting to see how these perceptions compared to their actual performances.

1) "Donald Brown dances too much behind the line of scrimmage"

Looking at yesterday's game, Vick Ballard and Donald Brown both had 2 carries each for a loss.

Vick Ballard had 2 carries for a loss out of 12 carries -> 16% of carries for a loss. This compares similarly to his last performance vs the Browns, when Ballard had 17% of carries for a loss.

Donald Brown had 2 carries for a loss out of 14 carries -> 14% of carries for a loss. In his last game vs the Packers, Brown had 12% of his carries go for a loss.

If you had to give the edge to either running back, it would have to be Donald Brown.

2) "Donald Brown has no power and can't pick up any extra yards"

Based on the stats from yesterday (see other thread), this is the breakdown:

When hit behind line of scrimmage: Brown picked up an extra +3.3 yards after contact

When hit at line of scrimmage or beyond: Brown picked up an extra +2.0 yards after contact

Overall, Brown picked up an extra +2.3 yards after contact

________________________________________________

When hit behind line of scrimmage: Ballard picked up an extra +1.6 yards after contact

When hit at line of scrimmage or beyond: Brown picked up an extra +1.7 yards after contact

Overall, Ballard picked up an extra +1.7 yards after contact

This perception really doesn't seem to hold up to reality, as Donald Brown is clearly outperforming Ballard in this respect. In fact, this has been an underrated part of Brown's running game all season, as he's regularly been outperforming other backs, such as Arian Foster (+1.75 YAC vs Tennessee Titans). In week 5, Donald Brown had +3.0 YAC vs Green Bay Packers.

[Mouthfire]

This thread wasn't really made to disparage Vick Ballard, as he clearly had a tremendous game yesterday. But as good a game as Ballard had, Brown really had a much better game. It is just interesting that part of the reason why Brown had such a good game is because he's able to pick up extra yardage after contact, both when the offensive line just its job (extra +2.0 YAC when reaching LOS cleanly) and when the offensive line doesn't do its job and allows defensive penetration (extra +3.3 YAC when hit behind the LOS).

[HtownColt]

thank you for this and the work you do every week for the running back breakdowns. but some fans just have a serious case of selective amnesia when it comes to Brown. No stats or film is going to change there perception just because he wasn't effective as a first round pick his first year and a half backing up Addai. Brown has turned up his game ever since he took over as the primary back when Addai went down. Brown does everything you ask out of a back well.

[The Peytonator]

Preach brother. Donald Brown is not the scrub some would have us believe. The guy makes people miss regularly, but it's hard to make someone miss when you get hit as soon as you get the ball.

[Golfr]

Good for you to do all this research but I believe a lot of the hostility with DB is the fact that he has been around for 4 years and should be better and he is not..........VB is more explosive, a better blocker, better pass receiver, stronger, more decisive and runs behind his pads. DB has proven to be inconsistent and VB needs to be given his shot. I really do not need to see these stats I can see with my eyes who is better.

Nice effort though.

[JoKeR]

He's developed nicely, he was not the kind of RB that starts producing out of the gate as a rookie ( like Ballard is ) but he's grown into a very productive RB. My opinion of him now vs 2 years ago is night and day. I think he could be a top RB in this league if Oline continues to improve.

[HtownColt]

Good for you to do all this research but I believe a lot of the hostility with DB is the fact that he has been around for 4 years and should be better and he is not..........VB is more explosive, a better blocker, better pass receiver, stronger, more decisive and runs behind his pads. DB has proven to be inconsistent and VB needs to be given his shot. I really do not need to see these stats I can see with my eyes who is better.

Nice effort though.

selective amnesia on Donald Brown case #1

[BOTT]

i find these stats to be very close to useless

[Mouthfire]

Good for you to do all this research but I believe a lot of the hostility with DB is the fact that he has been around for 4 years and should be better and he is not..........VB is more explosive, a better blocker, better pass receiver, stronger, more decisive and runs behind his pads. DB has proven to be inconsistent and VB needs to be given his shot. I really do not need to see these stats I can see with my eyes who is better.

Nice effort though.

Which is why I'm glad Pagano and Grigson are making these decisions and not you. ;-)

I was about to say, the reason why these misconceptions exist is because a lot of fans are really, REALLY lazy when looking at running backs (which is why I started the other thread). It's really easy to blame things on the running back, because the running back is what catches your eye. What's harder to see is that, when Donald is "dancing around" it's usually because the offensive line isn't opening up the holes like they should be.

[Mouthfire]

i find these stats to be very close to useless

Hows that? All you have to do is look at YPC (Brown 5.7 YPC vs Ballard 4.6 YPC). That tells you the whole story right there.

[BOTT]

Hows that? All you have to do is look at YPC (Brown 5.7 YPC vs Ballard 4.6 YPC). That tells you the whole story right there.

it's a tiny sample size. he could have simply has a couple plays where the blocking was great...or ballard could have a couple plays where the blocking was horrible. i'm not arguing for one or the other...i like them both.

[Tark The Shark]

Or how about we just say that both are very good backs and are running the ball very well.

Maybe we could have another season like 2007 where Addai & Rhodes were running well.

[Mouthfire]

it's a tiny sample size. he could have simply has a couple plays where the blocking was great...or ballard could have a couple plays where the blocking was horrible. i'm not arguing for one or the other...i like them both.

Sure. But Brown is averaging 4.3 YPC over 74 carries for the year. Ballard is averaging 3.4 YPC over 61 carries. Those aren't small sample sizes... that's a trend.

[SOMDColtsfan]

You can present your opinion, back it up with facts and some people still refuse to give credit where it is due. Donald Brown has been a borderline bust but has also shown the talent it takes to be a playmaker. IMO, his talents havent been used as an advantage to the offense..until recently. IMO, he`d be a pro-bowler running behind some other o`lines around the league.

[BOTT]

Sure. But Brown is averaging 4.3 YPC over 74 carries for the year. Ballard is averaging 3.4 YPC over 61 carries. Those aren't small sample sizes... that's a trend.

actually that is still a small sample size

[Mouthfire]

actually that is still a small sample size

Is it? I'm not a statistician, but 74 samples seems like a pretty good sample size to get a representative trend. But then again, I only play a statistician on TV, maybe I'm wrong.

[Superman]

it's a tiny sample size. he could have simply has a couple plays where the blocking was great...or ballard could have a couple plays where the blocking was horrible. i'm not arguing for one or the other...i like them both.

Mouthfire has been doing this breakdown all season long. I don't think it's arguable that our offensive line has had some bad games, and both backs have suffered because of it. But the breakdown takes all that into consideration, and it puts into numbers what you're watching with your eyes so that you can make a straight across comparison.

What I get from this breakdown is that we have a good tandem in Brown and Ballard. Brown isn't a star, but he's been performing decently when you consider how inconsistent the blocking has been. I can't see how anyone could consider this breakdown useless. Not unless one is resistant to the idea that Donald Brown has been our most effective back this season.

[Mouthfire]

Mouthfire has been doing this breakdown all season long. I don't think it's arguable that our offensive line has had some bad games, and both backs have suffered because of it. But the breakdown takes all that into consideration, and it puts into numbers what you're watching with your eyes so that you can make a straight across comparison.

What I get from this breakdown is that we have a good tandem in Brown and Ballard. Brown isn't a star, but he's been performing decently when you consider how inconsistent the blocking has been. I can't see how anyone could consider this breakdown useless. Not unless one is resistant to the idea that Donald Brown has been our most effective back this season.

That's exactly the point. It's no wonder that as the offensive line has improved, all of our backs have looked like world beaters, including Carter. As the season wears on, the more we can pound away with our stable of running backs, the better our offense is going to perform.

[Superman]

That's exactly the point. It's no wonder that as the offensive line has improved, all of our backs have looked like world beaters, including Carter. As the season wears on, the more we can pound away with our stable of running backs, the better our offense is going to perform.

That's what I like about your work. Not only does it give you an idea of how often the run blocking breaks down, it gives you an idea of how often the backs make something happen in that case. It's easy to remember the plays that get stopped for a loss because of a blown block, but it's a little different to isolate the broken plays that turn into gains.

On top of that, we've seen the percentage of run plays where the back gets hit in the backfield go down from the mid 30s to the high teens.

[BOTT]

Mouthfire has been doing this breakdown all season long. I don't think it's arguable that our offensive line has had some bad games, and both backs have suffered because of it. But the breakdown takes all that into consideration, and it puts into numbers what you're watching with your eyes so that you can make a straight across comparison.

What I get from this breakdown is that we have a good tandem in Brown and Ballard. Brown isn't a star, but he's been performing decently when you consider how inconsistent the blocking has been. I can't see how anyone could consider this breakdown useless. Not unless one is resistant to the idea that Donald Brown has been our most effective back this season.

like i said i find it useless because of the sample size especially considering the nature of football. and u insinuating that i'm resistant to the idea is incorrect....one might be more effective, but only marginally so.

[Mouthfire]

like i said i find it useless because of the sample size especially considering the nature of football. and u insinuating that i'm resistant to the idea is incorrect....one might be more effective, but only marginally so.

No, but really... 74 samples is not a small sampling size. It's not a huge sampling size, but it's not small, either.

[deedub75]

it's a tiny sample size. he could have simply has a couple plays where the blocking was great...or ballard could have a couple plays where the blocking was horrible. i'm not arguing for one or the other...i like them both.

''

I see what you're saying. It's hard to compare two different backs behind such an inconsistent O line. I like our running backs by committee.

[The Peytonator]

If Brown were running behind that San Fransisco line, he'd probably have about 3,000 yards.....heck I'd probably get 2,000 and I'm slower than constipated crap.

[Mouthfire]

''

I see what you're saying. It's hard to compare two different backs behind such an inconsistent O line. I like our running backs by committee.

Which is what the other thread is all about. For each running back, it breaks down the plays into when the offensive line is blocking well, and when it's not.

When the offensive line was blocking well, both backs performed fairly similarly, with Brown being slightly better.

When the offensive line was NOT blocking well, both backs STILL performed fairly similarly, but with Brown still being better.

What the real story is, though, is that prior to a few games ago, the offensive line was consistently allowing backfield penetration a staggering 35-37% of the time. That was nearly twice the 20% every other team was allowing. No wonder the Colts running game looked so bad. Every Colts running back, at the time (Brown, Ballard, Moore) was averaging a paltry 3.5 YPC, 3.7 YPC.

Then for the past few games, the offensive line started gelling, and that 35% backfield penetration dropped down to 18-20%. Then, all the sudden, every single Colts back "magically" starts averaging 4.0 YPC, 4.3 YPC, 4.6 YPC, 5.7 YPC.

Really, it's not the running backs... It's the offensive line. It always has been.

[BleedBlu8792]

I still say Ballard should start due to him being more of the power runner. Let him beat on the defense, then allow Brown to come in for the homeruns. Just like someone else stated, and I stated a while back, if you use these two like Rhodes and Addai were used they would be lethal. I think both of these guys have the potential to be better than those 2.

However, I'd like to see more screens/dump-offs to these two as well.

[Gavin]

like i said i find it useless because of the sample size especially considering the nature of football. and u insinuating that i'm resistant to the idea is incorrect....one might be more effective, but only marginally so.

Ok lets go with your idea that is a small sample size, you cant deny 134 carries (last year) for Brown and a 4.8 ypc (behind what was a revolving door of O Linemen being moved around and such) is a pretty good sample size, it certainly is not small even taking his 80 yard run out of the equation he still have 4.2 ypc which is more then serviceable

[Gavin]

I been saying for quite a while now(for the record I did NOT start out being a Brown supporter) if Brown did not have to share carries he is more then capable of being elite not just ANY running back on the planet can blow by a defender for an 80 yard run on any given run, Brown is the type of Back that is a game changer but the blocking has to be ther, he can get you 4-5 yard runs or he can get you 80 on any given play

[BleedBlu8792]

I been saying for quite a while now(for the record I did NOT start out being a Brown supporter) if Brown did not have to share carries he is more then capable of being elite not just ANY running back on the planet can blow by a defender for an 80 yard run on any given run, Brown is the type of Back that is a game changer but the blocking has to be ther, he can get you 4-5 yard runs or he can get you 80 on any given play

He doesn't have the body to go without sharing carries. He's no different than Addai. He's not meant to be a feature back as he would undoubtedly wear out later in games and later in the year. Let Ballard take THAT punishment, THEN let Donald come in and be that homerun hitter he's capable of.

I'm really liking what we could potentially be seeing out of these two for years to come. We've really missed a Dom Rhodes-type back these past couple of years and I think Vick gives us the closest resemblance to him.

[John Dee]

The Indy Colt backfield is FINE. The issues are CB, DL, and OL

4-3 ... why are we picking on RB's...

4-3...

what was Indy's record LAST season?

There IS life without Peyton Manning... (although the man is rounding into shape it seems.)

Go Colts....

[John Dee]

That's what I like about your work. Not only does it give you an idea of how often the run blocking breaks down, it gives you an idea of how often the backs make something happen in that case. It's easy to remember the plays that get stopped for a loss because of a blown block, but it's a little different to isolate the broken plays that turn into gains.

On top of that, we've seen the percentage of run plays where the back gets hit in the backfield go down from the mid 30s to the high teens.

So yall mean when an OL is healthy and and you got a couple good RB's ...... they should do good?

Whaaaagiiiiiigggghhhhhhhhhhhooooooo

Hehee... it's not rocket science...

I have been pumping this teams backfield from day one... Brown, Ballard and Carter are ALL KEEPERS.

Just have to do something for them.

Indy is close... if they stay healthy...... on D,....

[Warhorse]

Just to add, nearly every RB ran great behind Denver's line for awhile. No names were putting up eye popping numbers. They used questionable blocking techniques constantly. Does that mean each of those were outstanding RB's? Was it the oline?

Stats are helpful, but I dont see them as definitive when comparing contrasting types of runners. However, some just love to rate so have at it.

[John Dee]

Just to add, nearly every RB ran great behind Denver's line for awhile. No names were putting up eye popping numbers. They used questionable blocking techniques constantly. Does that mean each of those were outstanding RB's? Was it the oline?

Stats are helpful, but I dont see them as definitive when comparing contrasting types of runners. However, some just love to rate so have at it.

When you can run when "WE" need to... that is a true running game. Indy did it Sun. The are showing "glimpses" ... and the OL is getting healthy...

Wonder what all that can equal?

W's...

Go Colts.

[GoColts8818]

I like Brown and Ballard the way they are being used together with Carter being sprinkled in. We have a good stable of backs. If the line can keep run blocking like they have the past couple of weeks then we are going to have a real weapon in the ground game with our backs. They will have a stiff test this week though. Miami is top 10 in the NFL against the run.

[John Dee]

I like Brown and Ballard the way they are being used together with Carter being sprinkled in. We have a good stable of backs. If the line can keep run blocking like they have the past couple of weeks then we are going to have a real weapon in the ground game with our backs. They will have a stiff test this week though. Miami is top 10 in the NFL against the run.

LOS will be ROCKING.................

[Gavin]

He doesn't have the body to go without sharing carries. He's no different than Addai. He's not meant to be a feature back as he would undoubtedly wear out later in games and later in the year. Let Ballard take THAT punishment, THEN let Donald come in and be that homerun hitter he's capable of.

I'm really liking what we could potentially be seeing out of these two for years to come. We've really missed a Dom Rhodes-type back these past couple of years and I think Vick gives us the closest resemblance to him.

I dont buy that he doesnt have the body type, Brown had 367 carries his senior year at college and that was 12 games, thats 30.5 carries per game or rounded up 31. you mean to tell me players body types in the NFL are that much different? or that Brown cant carry the ball for example 25 times a game (which is only 10 more per game then he is averaging now if you round up his 14.8) Tomlinson only has 5lbs on Brown and he was an every down Back, They were built the same

[funktacious2]

i find these stats to be very close to useless

On what basis?

[Gavin]

On what basis?

The basis that he wants Ballard to start, That would be the one and only basis

[funktacious2]

Peoples bias toward Ballard are evident in this thread. No stats or compelling arguments, just a bunch of speculation. Can't we just be a little open-minded and consider that perhaps they work better as a tandem rather than having one really needing to "start" over the other. Otherwise Ballard has not shown enough to earn a starting role.

[BOTT]

Ok lets go with your idea that is a small sample size, you cant deny 134 carries (last year) for Brown and a 4.8 ypc (behind what was a revolving door of O Linemen being moved around and such) is a pretty good sample size, it certainly is not small even taking his 80 yard run out of the equation he still have 4.2 ypc which is more then serviceable

i'm not sure i would pay much attention to last season considering the colts went 2-14 and were dominated in many games. it's easy to get yards when your team is down 20pts. i think i read where brown got 39% of his yardage last year in garbage time. this is not saying anything bad about brown...he was on a horrible team with a poor oline.

[BOTT]

The basis that he wants Ballard to start, That would be the one and only basis

find one quote from me where i stated i wanted ballard to start...just one. truth is, i couldn't care less who "starts". if healthy, they will probably split carries for the most part.....and they should.