The Colts running backs: Fan Perception vs Actual performance

[Superman]

I don't know. McFadden doesn't look particularly impressive. He's not exactly lighting the world on fire right now.

They're both better than Donald Brown. I don't think anyone would argue otherwise.

[Mouthfire]

1) That 80 yard run is one of the reasons he's dangerous. It's ridiculous to try to twist it and use it against him.

2) That run was NOT in garbage time. It was the biggest play of the game in our first win of the season.

3) I don't know why old ideas refuse to die. Donald Brown was the 5th most efficient pass blocking back in the league in 2011. Better than Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Lesean McCoy, etc.

4) His pass blocking, good or bad, is completely irrelevant to the topic, which is solely focused on the back's ability to produce in the run game.

Yeah, that's another misconception that keeps self-perpetuating itself. Donald hasn't been a bad pass blocker in a really long time.

[Mouthfire]

They're both better than Donald Brown. I don't think anyone would argue otherwise.

Bad run blocking blah blah blah... 3.3 YPC 2 TD blah blah blah. I'll just spout my usual drivel. ;-)

[Superman]

I'm not saying that Brown is the worst running back of all time. I'm saying that he's not performing like a 1st round draft pick should.. So if the decision is that Brown is playing well, then one of the following statements is true based on the stat sheet. 1) Donald Brown was vastly over-rated. 2) Vick Ballard was vastly under-rated.

To the bolded, when can we stop judging his play based on his draft status? I've been one of the more vocal Donald Brown defenders since he's been here, primarily because our offensive line play has been horrible throughout and he's never really had a consistent role in the offense, either because of injuries or politics (he had a good showing late in 2010, and then was benched for the rest of the year in favor of 31 year old Dominic Rhodes).

And with all of that defending of Donald Brown, I'm the first one to admit that it was a terrible pick for our team. I hate how we used that draft pick, 100% hate it. We had pressing needs at other positions, and there were better players on the board at those positions. I get why we drafted him, with Addai having a bad, injury-riddled season and his contract coming up. But it still wasn't the right pick. I'm one of those who would practically NEVER use a first rounder on a running back, because of the decreasing value of even a good running back, in comparison with a decent back. He wasn't worth the pick we used on him, and that's not ever going to change.

Let's set that aside. The question now is whether he's performing well, and all indications are that he is. He's not perfect, and he's not a star. He still misses holes from time to time, he's still more susceptible to arm tackles than most of us would like, and he's dropped a couple passes and missed a couple blocks this season. He's no Adrian Peterson or Matt Forte. But he's been effective, and increasingly so as the line play has improved.

And that applies to Vick Ballard as well. You're right, it's unfair to compare a rookie to a 4th year vet. But it's not unfair to give more carries to the 4th year vet if he's more effective. And it's kind of obvious that Brown has been more effective. I like the way we split the carries in the Titans game; it was perfect if you ask me. I don't care who starts, and I don't care who gets the most carries. I like that we mixed it up, rode the hot hand as long as possible, and stuck with the run game when it was working. We also used Carter situationally, and it worked well. Both players did a good job. I'm happy as long as we continue to do just that.

[Superman]

Yeah, that's another misconception that keeps self-perpetuating itself. Donald hasn't been a bad pass blocker in a really long time.

It's not self-perpetuating. It's being perpetuated by people who keep repeating it, despite the fact that it's been solidly debunked.

[FightLikeSin]

And that applies to Vick Ballard as well. You're right, it's unfair to compare a rookie to a 4th year vet. But it's not unfair to give more carries to the 4th year vet if he's more effective. And it's kind of obvious that Brown has been more effective. I like the way we split the carries in the Titans game; it was perfect if you ask me. I don't care who starts, and I don't care who gets the most carries. I like that we mixed it up, rode the hot hand as long as possible, and stuck with the run game when it was working. We also used Carter situationally, and it worked well. Both players did a good job. I'm happy as long as we continue to do just that.

I guess I'm oblivious to the obvious superiority of Brown over Ballard. I think they are performing one as well as the other. Overall, I agree with you that our backfield has a nice dynamic to it and that shouldn't change. My point started in another post where I mentioned the possibility of trading Brown because Ballard provides the same skill set and how it would probably not effect our offense in any way to lose him. Maybe that should have stayed in the other thread, but I feel like I was defending myself/my arguments in both threads. I'm still a huge Carter fan myself. Wish he'd get more opportunities as well.

[Superman]

I guess I'm oblivious to the obvious superiority of Brown over Ballard. I think they are performing one as well as the other. Overall, I agree with you that our backfield has a nice dynamic to it and that shouldn't change. My point started in another post where I mentioned the possibility of trading Brown because Ballard provides the same skill set and how it would probably not effect our offense in any way to lose him. Maybe that should have stayed in the other thread, but I feel like I was defending myself/my arguments in both threads. I'm still a huge Carter fan myself. Wish he'd get more opportunities as well.

I don't think Ballard provides the same skill set, primarily because Brown has more speed than Ballard. There were some opportunities in the Browns game where Ballard wasn't able to turn the corner, and I think Brown has done a better job of doing that this season.

As for Brown's superiority, I'm not saying that he's blowing Ballard away. But the numbers are pretty obviously in Brown's favor.

[FightLikeSin]

I don't think Ballard provides the same skill set, primarily because Brown has more speed than Ballard. There were some opportunities in the Browns game where Ballard wasn't able to turn the corner, and I think Brown has done a better job of doing that this season.

As for Brown's superiority, I'm not saying that he's blowing Ballard away. But the numbers are pretty obviously in Brown's favor.

As far as speed goes...they both run a 4.5 40. So I don't buy that so much.

I think the numbers are subjective. Less opportunity is going to result in less yards more often than not. Ballard has only had 1 game to be a feature back without having to split carries and it was a pretty good game.

[Superman]

As far as speed goes...they both run a 4.5 40. So I don't buy that so much.

Does 40 speed equate to game speed? Isn't it possible for two guys to run the same 40 time, but for one to play faster than the other?

By the way, Brown's pre-draft 40 time ranged from 4.38 to 4.56. Ballard's ranged from 4.52 to 4.74.

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=67975&draftyear=2009&genpos=rb

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=105066&draftyear=2012&genpos=RB

I think the numbers are subjective. Less opportunity is going to result in less yards more often than not. Ballard has only had 1 game to be a feature back without having to split carries and it was a pretty good game.

Of course. Numbers can be subjective, especially simple yardage. But Brown has a higher ypc, and according to Mouthfire's breakdown, he does a better job overcoming poor blocking. None of that is surprising; as you continue to point out, Brown is in his 4th year and has had more opportunities to get used to the NFL. He should be better. But, to this point, the numbers bear out that he has been better. Again, he's not blowing Ballard out, but there's an undeniable margin there.

[FightLikeSin]

Does 40 speed equate to game speed? Isn't it possible for two guys to run the same 40 time, but for one to play faster than the other?

Sure it's possible and likely that's the way it is for a lot of players, but I've seen Ballard be just as explosive as Brown. Take the winning play at the Titans game. That's a pretty quick movement up the field wouldn't you agree? Donald's main advantage comes with speed on the outside which is fine and dandy if you can get the O-line to come with you. That rarely happens as you've noticed. Ballard has much more of a knack for barrelling through the gut and I think that suites this offense. North/South > East/West running.

Of course. Numbers can be subjective, especially simple yardage. But Brown has a higher ypc, and according to Mouthfire's breakdown, he does a better job overcoming poor blocking. None of that is surprising; as you continue to point out, Brown is in his 4th year and has had more opportunities to get used to the NFL. He should be better. But, to this point, the numbers bear out that he has been better. Again, he's not blowing Ballard out, but there's an undeniable margin there.

I don't consider 0.9 yards an "undeniable margin", but that's fine. I've never argued that Ballard is the better RB. All I've showcased is that they are having a similar type of season and I think that is very telling of where each RB is talent-wise/contribution-wise given one is a rookie and the other a 4th year vet.

[Gavin]

I think another thing, probably the most neglected aspect of the whole thing is the # of carries both of these guys get, Neither of these guys have been used as feature Backs getting all of the carries, I have been on record as saying that Brown could be a top Back in the league if he would not have to share carries and the blocking was there but arguing over who is better then who really is pointless because it doesn't matter who is better then who, Arians or somebody in the Colts organization (could even be the running backs coach himself for that matter) has it in there head that neither can seemingly be the feature Back or that a 2 Back tandem is part of Arians offense. Im not 100 percent sure what it is but I do know Brown has game changing type speed and as we have seen this season runs between the Tackles with power (another ridiculous misconception about Brown that I dont like) with that said I think both would flourish if we ran Zone more or made Zone Blocking our primary scheme

[BOTT]

The sample size is what it is. We're seven games in. I don't know why acknowledging trends halfway through the season is considered a small sample size.

how is one supposed to respond to this? u wrote three sentences and didn't say anything....

[Superman]

Sure it's possible and likely that's the way it is for a lot of players, but I've seen Ballard be just as explosive as Brown. Take the winning play at the Titans game. That's a pretty quick movement up the field wouldn't you agree? Donald's main advantage comes with speed on the outside which is fine and dandy if you can get the O-line to come with you. That rarely happens as you've noticed. Ballard has much more of a knack for barrelling through the gut and I think that suites this offense. North/South > East/West running.

Change of pace is quite advantageous, which is why I like the tandem. Ballard is better between the tackles, and as he gets more comfortable, he'll figure out how to get to the second level even easier. But like you're saying, Brown can get that corner better than any other back we have. The play at the end of the Packers game is an example of the get-away speed Brown has, and I don't think Ballard has it. His touchdown on Sunday was awesome, but he didn't show get-away speed. I'm not calling him slow, just saying Brown has speed he doesn't.

I don't consider 0.9 yards an "undeniable margin", but that's fine. I've never argued that Ballard is the better RB. All I've showcased is that they are having a similar type of season and I think that is very telling of where each RB is talent-wise/contribution-wise given one is a rookie and the other a 4th year vet.

That's just one metric. It's significant in it's own right, by the way. Over 150 carries, that's an extra 135 yards.

But the other metrics, specifically the one's Mouthfire is shining a light on, show Brown ahead of Ballard as well. For instance, against the Titans, when Brown was hit behind the line of scrimmage, he averaged 3.3 yards after contact. Ballard averaged 1.6. With all things taken into consideration, I think it's undeniable that Brown has been better.

I'd also agree that they're having a similar type of season, as you say. Brown isn't blowing anyone's mind. Both have gotten better as the season has gone on. I'm happy with that improvement, and I'm extra happy about the way the tandem took shape in the Titans game.

[Superman]

how is one supposed to respond to this? u wrote three sentences and didn't say anything....

There's nothing to say. You're dismissive of a solid chunk of analysis simply because it's not big enough, without making any attempt to quantify what "big enough" is. The numbers are there, seven games worth.

[BOTT]

There's nothing to say. You're dismissive of a solid chunk of analysis simply because it's not big enough, without making any attempt to quantify what "big enough" is. The numbers are there, seven games worth.

i agree with your first sentence.

[John Dee]

Just win baby....

[DallasClarkrules]

baseball is a game where stats tend to be a great indicator....football not so much.

I disagree, I think that stats can be a great indicator in football too. If you use the right stats.

In this instance looking at both YPC and YAC surely illustrate which back is performing at a higher level?

Or turnover differential? Turnover Differential is usually a good indicator of which team will win a football game.

I would actually say that most stats we use in analysing football are good indicators, they just don't tell the whole story.

[BOTT]

I disagree, I think that stats can be a great indicator in football too. If you use the right stats.

In this instance looking at both YPC and YAC surely illustrate which back is performing at a higher level?

Or turnover differential? Turnover Differential is usually a good indicator of which team will win a football game.

I would actually say that most stats we use in analysing football are good indicators, they just don't tell the whole story.

to each their own

[Hans Moleman]

60% - Brown

35% - Ballard

5% - Carter

I think splitting the carries up somewhere in that range gives us the best balanced running attack while keeping everyone fresh. As long as we keep Luck from slinging it 50 times a game, I'm good.

[Mouthfire]

Sure it's possible and likely that's the way it is for a lot of players, but I've seen Ballard be just as explosive as Brown. Take the winning play at the Titans game. That's a pretty quick movement up the field wouldn't you agree? Donald's main advantage comes with speed on the outside which is fine and dandy if you can get the O-line to come with you. That rarely happens as you've noticed. Ballard has much more of a knack for barrelling through the gut and I think that suites this offense. North/South > East/West running.

Well, surprisingly enough, during this week's game, Donald Brown did most of his damage running it down the gut.

This is information available from NFL Game Rewind:

Run down the middle for +3 yards (initial contact at -5 yards)

Run down the middle for +5 yards (initial contact at +2 yards)

Run down the middle for +4 yards (initial contact at +3 yards)

Run down the middle for +4 yards (initial contact at +1 yards)

Run down the middle for +4 yards (initial contact at +3 yards)

Run down the middle for +19 yards (initial contact at +14 yards)

Run down the middle for +5 yards (initial contact at +4 yards)

Run down the middle for +5 yards (initial contact at +5 yards)

Run down the middle for -3 yards (initial contact at -4 yards)

9 carries for 46 yards running down the middle, +5.11 YPC, picking up an extra +2.44 yards after contact

So not only is he running it down the middle quite a lot (64% of the time), he's pretty efficient at doing it. Furthermore (contrary to widespread opinion), he's picking up an extra +2.44 yards after contact doing it. This is pretty consistent to the YAC he's been picking up all year (see other thread for details). In particular, note the first run, where he was initially hit -5 yards behind the LOS. He turned that into a +3 yard gain. He's consistently been doing that once or twice every game.

[HtownColt]

Greg Rakestraw ‏@gregrakestraw

#Colts Brown: Big difference in running game this year is the focus on downhill running. In years past, everything was to the outside.

[Mouthfire]

Greg Rakestraw ‏@gregrakestraw

#Colts Brown: Big difference in running game this year is the focus on downhill running. In years past, everything was to the outside.

Yep, sounds about right.

[Surge89]

This whole thread (and Mouthfire's stats) really only shows me one flaring thing. We need to run the ball a bit more... 20 carries isn't much to ask from the playcalling and I remember someone bringing up a statistic where ALL Runningbacks seem to have better performance when they have 20 plus carries. I can't be sure but I think if we had a decent set of gaurds and 20 + carries Mr. Brown just might be lighting up the football field like a premier back.

Look at Ray Rice in Baltimore he looks... pedestrian to be frank and mainly because he hasn't gotten a 20+ carry game in a very long while!

[HtownColt]

Vick Ballard had a top speed of over 20.3mph on that game winning catch and run according to Sports Science

[Mouthfire]

Vick Ballard had a top speed of over 20.3mph on that game winning catch and run according to Sports Science

Hahah... That's faster than my car.

[Mouthfire]

This whole thread (and Mouthfire's stats) really only shows me one flaring thing. We need to run the ball a bit more... 20 carries isn't much to ask from the playcalling and I remember someone bringing up a statistic where ALL Runningbacks seem to have better performance when they have 20 plus carries. I can't be sure but I think if we had a decent set of gaurds and 20 + carries Mr. Brown just might be lighting up the football field like a premier back.

Look at Ray Rice in Baltimore he looks... pedestrian to be frank and mainly because he hasn't gotten a 20+ carry game in a very long while!

Can't argue with that. We need to keep running more, in general.

[II COLD]

oh boy...we're down to this "taking away" argument method huh?

If you can't comprehend that Ballard has only had 1 game to be a feature back with a workload in which he did an amazing job and can't understand why the sample size between the two skew numbers too much to declare a "better back" then we'll never be on the same page. That is a circular argument.

Ballard - season high rushing yards in a game - 84 yards

Brown - season high rushing yards in a game - 84 yards

How can you sit there and say one is clearly better than the other?

Both of your arguements appear to be valid. I believe Ballard should be the starter, but why not have a Jacobs/Bradshaw (NYG), Johnson/Holmes (KCC) or Tomlinson/Turner (SDC) situation. Have 2 backs that work in tune with each other. Ballard is the Hit First Ask Questions Later back and Brown is the Cant Touch This back. I think Arians should use both collectively.

[Mouthfire]

Both of your arguements appear to be valid. I believe Ballard should be the starter, but why not have a Jacobs/Bradshaw (NYG), Johnson/Holmes (KCC) or Tomlinson/Turner (SDC) situation. Have 2 backs that work in tune with each other. Ballard is the Hit First Ask Questions Later back and Brown is the Cant Touch This back. I think Arians should use both collectively.

I never said otherwise. In fact, I think the way they used our stable of backs this week was perfect.