The Colts running backs: Fan Perception vs Actual performance

[IndyTrav]

I'd like to see a break down through quarters. Because it seems Ballard did a majority of his damage well before Donald. Softening the Def up to an extent.

Did Brown get about 60 of those yards in OT? That would give credence to what Blood is saying about "garbage" time or late in the game statistics in regards to Brown.

[FightLikeSin]

Hows that? All you have to do is look at YPC (Brown 5.7 YPC vs Ballard 4.6 YPC). That tells you the whole story right there.

no it doesn't. Despite this game in particular, we are talking about a 5th round rookie vs a 1st round 4th year vet and you aren't taking into consideration opportunities and other aspects as to how the RB's are used during the game. Ballard has had such little opportunity to perform, it's not even fair to really compare yet...but If YPC is the logic we are using...C.J. Spiller is hands down the best RB in the league. Followed by Frank Gore, Daryl Richardson and Jonathon Dwyer... see where i'm getting at? YPC isn't a great indicator of the value of a RB.

Yards per game better reflects the value and Brown still beats Ballard in that aspect as well (63.8 - 29.4) but thats not particularly surprising considering Ballard has only been the feature back in 3 games. One of which, against the Jets, the run game was completely abandoned.

The game I look at is against the Browns (24th rush defense). The only game where Vick was given a big boy's workload and didn't have to split carries. Ballard had 20 carries for 84 yards, 4.2 yards per carry. If you want a measuring stick for that from an elite RB... Ray Rice had 18 carries for 49 yards and 2.7 yards per carry against the Browns in September.

The most work Donald Brown has been given this year was against the Jaguars (25th rush defense) in week 3. He had 18 rushes for 62 yards at 3.4 yards per carry.

I'm not saying that Brown is the worst running back of all time. I'm saying that he's not performing like a 1st round draft pick should.. So if the decision is that Brown is playing well, then one of the following statements is true based on the stat sheet. 1) Donald Brown was vastly over-rated. 2) Vick Ballard was vastly under-rated.

[lollygagger8]

It's kind of unfair to compare a 4 yr vet to a rookie.

I will say I agree on using the Ballard/Carter combo to wear down the Defense, then let Brown come in and blow past the D when they get gassed out.

[DallasClarkrules]

Good for you to do all this research but I believe a lot of the hostility with DB is the fact that he has been around for 4 years and should be better and he is not..........VB is more explosive, a better blocker, better pass receiver, stronger, more decisive and runs behind his pads. DB has proven to be inconsistent and VB needs to be given his shot. I really do not need to see these stats I can see with my eyes who is better.

Nice effort though.

This reminds me of the old scouts in Moneyball... you know the ones who are ignored by Billy Beane before the As win 20 in a row.

More importantly though, your two statements are contradictory. If you had been using your eyes, most of what you said would be telling you Donald brown is the better back... as the stats show. Higher YPC, higher YAC, faster etc... How you can tell who's more decisive and 'runs behind his pads' I don't know. In fact, I don't even know what you mean by the latter. If by decisive you mean runs straight into the hole, is this a good thing? I remember one of Brown's runs at the weekend, where he hesitated behing the LOS, made a quick cut, avoided a defender in the backfield and made a nice gain. had he been more 'decisive' he'd have been tackled in the hole.

You're closing statement of "i can see with my own eyes who is better" is quite outrageous. All the stats (from college too) favour Donald Brown. I'm not saying Ballard isn't a very good back, I really like him, but at this moment in time Donald Brown is our better back.

[Quantum88]

Thank God we have coaches to make this decision, not fans. There is not a fan on this board that sits in meetings and practices. I remember how people talked about Marvin Harrison's practices habits which were legendary. When asked about it, Marvin said, "They pay me to practice, I play the games for free."

Maybe what is going on in practice is why Brown is starting and Ballard is our #1 backup.

[Quantum88]

I still believe that Brown is the back that gives us a better running game, with Ballard as our backup.

[Mouthfire]

no it doesn't. Despite this game in particular, we are talking about a 5th round rookie vs a 1st round 4th year vet and you aren't taking into consideration opportunities and other aspects as to how the RB's are used during the game. Ballard has had such little opportunity to perform, it's not even fair to really compare yet...but If YPC is the logic we are using...C.J. Spiller is hands down the best RB in the league. Followed by Frank Gore, Daryl Richardson and Jonathon Dwyer... see where i'm getting at? YPC isn't a great indicator of the value of a RB.

Yards per game better reflects the value and Brown still beats Ballard in that aspect as well (63.8 - 29.4) but thats not particularly surprising considering Ballard has only been the feature back in 3 games. One of which, against the Jets, the run game was completely abandoned.

I'll agree that YPC in isolation is not the best indicator. But YPC with the roughly the same opportunities, same team, and the same offensive line.... that is a pretty good indicator.

You seem to be under the assumption that Ballard isn't getting any opportunities.

Game 7 vs Titans

Brown 5.7 YPC over 14 carries

Ballard 4.6 YPC over 12 carries

Season long stats

Brown 4.3 YPC over 74 carries

Ballard 3.4 YPC over 61 carries

The difference in opportunities really isn't that great. It isn't like Ballard isn't getting any touches.

[Mouthfire]

The game I look at is against the Browns (24th rush defense). The only game where Vick was given a big boy's workload and didn't have to split carries. Ballard had 20 carries for 84 yards, 4.2 yards per carry. If you want a measuring stick for that from an elite RB... Ray Rice had 18 carries for 49 yards and 2.7 yards per carry against the Browns in September.

The most work Donald Brown has been given this year was against the Jaguars (25th rush defense) in week 3. He had 18 rushes for 62 yards at 3.4 yards per carry.

I'm not saying that Brown is the worst running back of all time. I'm saying that he's not performing like a 1st round draft pick should.. So if the decision is that Brown is playing well, then one of the following statements is true based on the stat sheet. 1) Donald Brown was vastly over-rated. 2) Vick Ballard was vastly under-rated.

Also, regarding the games you mentioned:

In Ballard vs the Browns, before he got a 26 yard run that was more due to the defender whiffing on a tackle than anything else, Ballard was on course for absolutely blistering 19 carries and 56 yards, or about 3.05 YPC.

And how about Brown vs Packers for 17 carries and 84 yards, or 4.94 YPC?

[FightLikeSin]

I'll agree that YPC in isolation is not the best indicator. But YPC with the roughly the same opportunities, same team, and the same offensive line.... that is a pretty good indicator.

You seem to be under the assumption that Ballard isn't getting any opportunities.

Game 7 vs Titans

Brown 5.7 YPC over 14 carries

Ballard 4.6 YPC over 12 carries

Season long stats

Brown 4.3 YPC over 74 carries

Ballard 3.4 YPC over 61 carries

The difference in opportunities really isn't that great. It isn't like Ballard isn't getting any touches.

If you do an average of the attempts by each RB throughout the games they've played

Ballard - 8.7 attempts/game

Brown - 14.8 attempts/game

I don't think I need to say much more.

[FightLikeSin]

Also, regarding the games you mentioned:

In Ballard vs the Browns, before he got a 26 yard run that was more due to the defender whiffing on a tackle than anything else, Ballard was on course for absolutely blistering 19 carries and 56 yards, or about 3.05 YPC.

And how about Brown vs Packers for 17 carries and 84 yards, or 4.94 YPC?

Is this a serious argument? Should I start discrediting Brown for his big runs based on defenders "whiffing"? There are many to discredit if so...

If you are going to use the "well...yeah the stats say this but it should be that" argument. I'll just leave now and leave you to that bubble you're in.

[Mouthfire]

Is this a serious argument? Should I start discrediting Brown for his big runs based on defenders "whiffing"? There are many to discredit if so...

If you are going to use the "well...yeah the stats say this but it should be that" argument. I'll just leave now and leave you to that bubble you're in.

Well, I'll do you one even better. Let's take yesterday's game and subtract out both of their biggest runs (19 yards and 19 yards for Brown, 17 yards and 13 yards for Ballard).

Seems a bit unfair to Brown, but I'll take that road. That should make things much more in Ballard's favor, right?

Brown 12 carries for 42 yards or 3.5 YPC

Ballard 10 carries for 25 yards or 2.5 YPC

Goes to show, even just taking into account the mediocre runs only (and taking out the big plays, which is supposedly Brown's strong suit), Brown is still outperforming Ballard by a long shot.

[FightLikeSin]

Well, I'll do you one even better. Let's take yesterday's game and subtract out both of their biggest runs (19 yards and 19 yards for Brown, 17 yards and 13 yards for Ballard).

That should make things much more in Ballard's favor, right?

Brown 12 carries for 42 yards or 3.5 YPC

Ballard 10 carries for 25 yards or 2.5 YPC

Goes to show, even just taking into account the mediocre runs only, Brown is still outperforming Ballard

oh boy...we're down to this "taking away" argument method huh?

If you can't comprehend that Ballard has only had 1 game to be a feature back with a workload in which he did an amazing job and can't understand why the sample size between the two skew numbers too much to declare a "better back" then we'll never be on the same page. That is a circular argument.

Ballard - season high rushing yards in a game - 84 yards

Brown - season high rushing yards in a game - 84 yards

How can you sit there and say one is clearly better than the other?

[oldunclemark]

Preach brother. Donald Brown is not the scrub some would have us believe. The guy makes people miss regularly, but it's hard to make someone miss when you get hit as soon as you get the ball.

Talk to 'em 'nator...

You want a back with speed....who wont fumble and can pick up the blitz

Indy hasnt asked a back to carry 25 times in many years...

Brown is our man and Ballard can get a dozen carries a game, too..

We have weak positoins but running back is not one of them

[throwing BBZ]

Agree about Browns "garbage time yardage" last season, not forgetting how his 80 yard run added greatly to his YPC.

And NOT forgetting his terrible pass blocking either.

In the past MOST of his yards come from running wide as he showed NO Vision for inside running.

I do think his style and speed could be best used in the second half when the D has some wear on their legs.

Its early, I look forward to a sound running game. REMEMBER, that running game was the REAL MVP in our SB Win.

Hard to pic six a Run! :dancing:

[IndyTrav]

It's slightly unfair to Ballard in the respect he got 29 carries for 62 yards in the first 5 games. Skewing things against his favor.

The last 2 games when they have given him the ball with consistency he's proven he is a quality RB.

All things considered, and if it were a vaccum, if you tell me I could get a rookie in the 4th rd who's played 7g with that YPC, or I could get a RB in the 1st in his 4th year with that YPC. I'd take Ballard. Every. Single. Time.

[BOTT]

This reminds me of the old scouts in Moneyball... you know the ones who are ignored by Billy Beane before the As win 20 in a row.

More importantly though, your two statements are contradictory. If you had been using your eyes, most of what you said would be telling you Donald brown is the better back... as the stats show. Higher YPC, higher YAC, faster etc... How you can tell who's more decisive and 'runs behind his pads' I don't know. In fact, I don't even know what you mean by the latter. If by decisive you mean runs straight into the hole, is this a good thing? I remember one of Brown's runs at the weekend, where he hesitated behing the LOS, made a quick cut, avoided a defender in the backfield and made a nice gain. had he been more 'decisive' he'd have been tackled in the hole.

You're closing statement of "i can see with my own eyes who is better" is quite outrageous. All the stats (from college too) favour Donald Brown. I'm not saying Ballard isn't a very good back, I really like him, but at this moment in time Donald Brown is our better back.

baseball is a game where stats tend to be a great indicator....football not so much.

[Mouthfire]

oh boy...we're down to this "taking away" argument method huh?

If you can't comprehend that Ballard has only had 1 game to be a feature back with a workload in which he did an amazing job and can't understand why the sample size between the two skew numbers too much to declare a "better back" then we'll never be on the same page. That is a circular argument.

Ballard - season high rushing yards in a game - 84 yards

Brown - season high rushing yards in a game - 84 yards

How can you sit there and say one is clearly better than the other?

No, I'm quite happy with not taking anything away and leaving it as Brown with 14 carries and 84 yards, 5.7 YPC and Ballard with 12 carries and 55 yards, 4.6 YPC.

[FightLikeSin]

No, I'm quite happy with not taking anything away and leaving it as Brown with 14 carries and 84 yards, 5.7 YPC and Ballard with 12 carries and 55 yards, 4.6 YPC.

yup. i'll just completely ignore context with you. The view is amazing from this world! Alex Smith is the best QB in the league because he has the best completion percentage!

[HtownColt]

I'd like to see a break down through quarters. Because it seems Ballard did a majority of his damage well before Donald. Softening the Def up to an extent.

Did Brown get about 60 of those yards in OT? That would give credence to what Blood is saying about "garbage" time or late in the game statistics in regards to Brown.

are you calling OT garbage time? are you serious(and he got 37 yards in OT when the game was on the line). and we only been in two blowout games that would have garbage time which Brown didn't play against the Jets, and nobody ran the ball versus the Bears so there was no garbage time for Brown. Every game Brown been in been close and he thrived in those moments.

Before Brown came in for the whole second quarter, Ballard had 5 carries and a fumble, you call that softening up the defense, that fumble got Ballard benched for the rest of the half.

[Mouthfire]

yup. i'll just completely ignore context with you. The view is amazing from this world! Alex Smith is the best QB in the league because he has the best completion percentage!

Heheh... you said it, not me.

[FightLikeSin]

Heheh... you said it, not me.

Just my guess at how you'd evaluate QB's based on your current RB logic.

[oldunclemark]

anyone who still thinks Brown doesn't block well isnt watching closely

[Mouthfire]

Just my guess at how you'd evaluate QB's based on your current RB logic.

And you, I'm guessing by your logic, would pick a RB who played one game for 100 yards, over someone who averaged 99 yards over 16 games. ;-)

[FightLikeSin]

And you, I'm guessing by your logic, would pick a RB who played one game for 100 yards, over someone who averaged 99 yards over 16 games. ;-)

Please show me where I've come anywhere close to saying that.

[Mouthfire]

Please show me where I've come anywhere close to saying that.

Where did I say Alex Smith was the best QB in the league? :-D

[FightLikeSin]

Where did I say Alex Smith was the best QB in the league? :-D

you didn't. But you are throwing away context of attempts and situational football to justify who you think the better player is...so that would be a close comparison.

[Mouthfire]

you didn't. But you are throwing away context of attempts and situational football to justify who you think the better player is...so that would be a close comparison.

Hmmm... A bit testy, aren't we?

At the same time, you apparently think 61 carries is miles away from 74 carries (which it isn't, statistically speaking), so I felt the analogy was appropriate.

[Mouthfire]

oh boy...we're down to this "taking away" argument method huh?

If you can't comprehend that Ballard has only had 1 game to be a feature back with a workload in which he did an amazing job and can't understand why the sample size between the two skew numbers too much to declare a "better back" then we'll never be on the same page. That is a circular argument.

Ballard - season high rushing yards in a game - 84 yards

Brown - season high rushing yards in a game - 84 yards

How can you sit there and say one is clearly better than the other?

No, I'm quite happy with not taking anything away and leaving it as Brown with 14 carries and 84 yards, 5.7 YPC and Ballard with 12 carries and 55 yards, 4.6 YPC.

[FightLikeSin]

Hmmm... A bit testy, aren't we?

At the same time, you apparently think 61 carries is miles away from 74 carries (which it isn't, statistically speaking), so I felt the analogy was appropriate.

not testy at all. Just answering your question.

Like I pointed out earlier...13 carries is almost 2 games worth of carries for Ballard. So yeah...it's a pretty big chunk.

[GrizzColt]

Last play against the titans, brown would have dropped that pass. Why? Because he drops all of the passes thrown to him. Look up that stat.

[HtownColt]

Ballard had 61 carries through 7 games already but its a small sample size. but that didnt stop people from judging Brown on his 78 carries on the year his rookie season

[Mouthfire]

not testy at all. Just answering your question.

Like I pointed out early...13 carries is almost 2 games worth of carries for Ballard. So yeah...it's a pretty big chunk.

But 61 carries not a small sample, by any means. Medical studies get approved with less samples than that.

The point is, though, you go with what evidence you have. You can speculate "what ifs" all you want, but in the end, all you have is the evidence. And best evidence so far is that Ballard a 3.7 YPC running back who picks up less yards after contact than Brown, which is absolutely unexpected.

[FightLikeSin]

But 61 carries not a small sample, by any means. Medical studies get approved with less samples than that.

The point is, though, you go with what evidence you have. You can speculate "what ifs" all you want, but in the end, all you have is the evidence. And bet evidence so far is that Ballard a 3.7 YPC running back who picks up less yards after contact than Brown, which is absolutely unexpected.

whatever you say big guy!

[Mouthfire]

whatever you say big guy!

Glad I convinced you :-)

No, but seriously, as much as we make a big deal of the running backs, it really is about the offensive line. Honest truth.

[FightLikeSin]

Glad I convinced you :-)

No, but seriously, as much as we make a big deal of the running backs, it really is about the offensive line. Honest truth.

well yeah...the O-line is brutal. No argument there. I'm merely saying that you can't put one back above the other at this point. Ballard is on the coat tail of Brown and that shouldn't be happening given the individuals' respective opportunities and franchise investment.

[Mouthfire]

well yeah...the O-line is brutal. No argument there. I'm merely saying that you can't put one back above the other at this point. Ballard is on the coat tail of Brown and that shouldn't be happening given the individuals' respective opportunities and franchise investment.

Actually, until you have a decent offensive line, it's a bit hard to judge ANY back. And IIRC, we haven't had a decent offensive line since before Brown got here (hint hint).

[FightLikeSin]

Actually, until you have a decent offensive line, it's a bit hard to judge ANY back. And IIRC, we haven't had a decent offensive line since before Brown got here (hint hint).

I suppose you could say that. Although Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson don't seem to be effected by it that much. They both have worse Run Blocking O-line's this year.

[Superman]

like i said i find it useless because of the sample size especially considering the nature of football. and u insinuating that i'm resistant to the idea is incorrect....one might be more effective, but only marginally so.

The sample size is what it is. We're seven games in. I don't know why acknowledging trends halfway through the season is considered a small sample size.

[Mouthfire]

I suppose you could say that. Although Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson don't seem to be effected by it that much. They both have worse Run Blocking O-line's this year.

I don't know. McFadden doesn't look particularly impressive. He's not exactly lighting the world on fire right now.

[Superman]

Agree about Browns "garbage time yardage" last season, not forgetting how his 80 yard run added greatly to his YPC.

And NOT forgetting his terrible pass blocking either.

1) That 80 yard run is one of the reasons he's dangerous. It's ridiculous to try to twist it and use it against him.

2) That run was NOT in garbage time. It was the biggest play of the game in our first win of the season.

3) I don't know why old ideas refuse to die. Donald Brown was the 5th most efficient pass blocking back in the league in 2011. Better than Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Lesean McCoy, etc.

4) His pass blocking, good or bad, is completely irrelevant to the topic, which is solely focused on the back's ability to produce in the run game.