10 Things I think I think

[Warhorse]

Summer is here, football is like a distant friend who is on vacation. This board is loaded with thread after thread of blah vs blah, blah is better than blah, and should we should try to get blah now that he is released?

Here are 10 things that are on my mind regarding this team. (in no order of importance)

1) We will be drafting somewhere between the #1 and #10 next season. I know that high hopes are everyone's right, and I am not trying to wet any cornflakes. Just saying that the perfect storm of retooling and zero injuries is just a little to rare to count on.

2) The defense will struggle mightily for the first 4-6 weeks. After that we will see a blossoming of our new defensive product. The players will be up to the task, but the recognition time and absorption of a new defensive scheme along with new names for all the plays and reads will have us just a split second slow for a while. In the NFL, that might as well be full seconds. Have a strong constitution as a fan, it will get better as the season progresses.

3) Andrew Luck may have games where he throws more picks than TD's. Fact is, no matter how NFL ready he is, he will be facing corners who are experts at baiting with their eyes, jumping the route, and most have world class speed compared to the college game. In addition, timing on routes will be a work in progress and that spells more INT's than most fans would want.

4) This will likely be Adam V's last year with the Colts. He has been a great kicker for us, the game against the Ravens in the playoffs (5 big time kicks) as big as any. I wish he could be here for one more SB and possibly hang his cleats here..........na, he's gonna go into the hall as a Pat.

5) Reggie Wayne staying here is a very big deal. He would have elevated his numbers by signing on with a team that had a legit #1, but he choose to be here. Very big deal. I know that Fleener is the guy everyone is talking about when it comes to Luck's safety valve (including me), but I think that Reggie is going to be the most most important single player to Luck next season.

6) Cory Redding was the best offseason signing for this team. He is the perfect player, at the right price, with the right level of respect and experience, for the retooling of this D-line. If he stays healthy (this is really important to the success of this retooling defense), the line will grow as the season progresses and within a few of years, we might even move beyond his services. Right now, he is very important. Nice guy too.

7) Safety is the position that seriously needs attention in next years draft. ABeth is awesome, but has taken a pounding. Tom is a feisty player, Hines and Caldwell are the only players over 210, but I truly see most of these guys not on this team in three to four years. I think the future of the S position starts in next years draft.

8) I think this season will mark the beginning of the Colts getting back to running the ball. Remember 2006? Or way back to the playoffs with Harbaugh with Zack Crockett? That kind of running the ball. Yes, count on it, my friends. the Colts are gonna pound the ball in the A and B gap once again.

9) Fleener is going to be a monster after the catch. I have watched many of his highlights and this guy gets his hips turned and his shoulders squared after the catch at a speed necessary to succeed in the NFL. He is going to be a load. I see him catching the 10' high frozen rope in the back of the endzone with ease.

10) I think that the injury bug that has plagued us will lessen with the focus on weight room dominance. I have always felt that the Colts had too many injuries and I think this is the year where we see some improvement.

[HungarianColtsFan]

I have to agree with You, however I believe we won't have a chance for #1 pick again. We shouldn't put to high expectations on our new team, this is NFL and we have a load of new players. I don't think number of wins would be so relevant, developing game by game is more important in my opinion, during first season. We still have so many needs on our roster...

One more thing: Really don't understand why FO avoiding the world "rebuilding", however in fact they are rebuilding Colts, half of the roster consists of new players. Oh yes...they are building a monster!

[The Peytonator]

Good thread. I agree on everything except for #1,2, and 8 to an extent. I think right out of the gate, we will see a finely tuned machine on the defensive side of the ball. A lot of times, when a defense changes schemes, the rest of the league has no film and it's harder to move the ball on something unexpected. Nobody thought Houston could change to a 3-4 last offseason, yet they had one of the league's most dominant defenses. I honestly think we'll see a top 10 D, provided our CBs are at least adequate in a stricter scheme.

Offensively I think we'll see a more balanced run/pass ratio, but we aren't going to be a 'ground and pound' kind of team. I'm not sure if that's what you meant, but that's how I interpreted it. That kind of offense is dead, which is why we brought in so much speed at WR this offseason. I'm thinking Avery will be a baller for us.

I also really loved the Redding signing, McKinney might not even make the team so I wasn't too enthused about that one. Zbikowski might turn out awesome but I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Lefeged beat him out. I think Satele will be a cog on the Oline for the next few years.

[Gavin]

I agree with all except #7 and . Bethea and Tom Z are very capable starters for years to come, depth is an issue at safety but Im not drafting for depth early

Also......Not one word about Corner?

[HungarianColtsFan]

Good thread. I agree on everything except for #1,2, and 8 to an extent. I think right out of the gate, we will see a finely tuned machine on the defensive side of the ball. A lot of times, when a defense changes schemes, the rest of the league has no film and it's harder to move the ball on something unexpected. Nobody thought Houston could change to a 3-4 last offseason, yet they had one of the league's most dominant defenses. I honestly think we'll see a top 10 D, provided our CBs are at least adequate in a stricter scheme.

Offensively I think we'll see a more balanced run/pass ratio, but we aren't going to be a 'ground and pound' kind of team. I'm not sure if that's what you meant, but that's how I interpreted it. That kind of offense is dead, which is why we brought in so much speed at WR this offseason. I'm thinking Avery will be a baller for us.

I also really loved the Redding signing, McKinney might not even make the team so I wasn't too enthused about that one. Zbikowski might turn out awesome but I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Lefeged beat him out. I think Satele will be a cog on the Oline for the next few years.

On profootball.com I've found 2 articles on Satele, one of them considers him as a secret superstar, the other one is rating Centers according to their performance, and Satele is 9th worst, or 23rd overall C in latter one, however he has a decent stat in pass blocking.

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/05/30/secret-superstar-samson-satele-c-indianapolis-colts/

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/14/three-years-of-pass-blocking-efficiency-centers/

I'm confused a little bit, but trusting him. I hope Arians and Pagano can develop his discipline and will commit less fouls (holding etc.).

[HungarianColtsFan]

I agree with all except #7 and . Bethea and Tom Z are very capable starters for years to come, depth is an issue at safety but Im not drafting for depth early

Also......Not one word about Corner?

Hmm... Our CBs are fed up with criticism. As having no more chance to draft anyone to that position, I think they are the best corners we can have. Now its their turn to prove themselves against all critics.

[Gavin]

Hmm... Our CBs are fed up with criticism. As having no more chance to draft anyone to that position, I think they are the best corners we can have. Now its their turn to prove themselves against all critics.

I agree they are fed up with criticism but they have earned it, I think we will get a top 5 or 6 pick and and have a chance at a Corner but if not then go linebacker

[HungarianColtsFan]

I agree they are fed up with criticism but they have earned it, I think we will get a top 5 or 6 pick and and have a chance at a Corner but if not then go linebacker

There were some rumors, that we missed a CB in this draft...but yes we will need a CB at next draft. I think during next draft we will target mainly our D anyway.

[Indyboy757]

I agree with 4,5,6,7,8 but thats it we will not be in the top ten when the draft comes back around do to the retool. #2 this is the best coaching staff we have had in years if ever and the D has been a weekness for years, with Pagano as head coach and Manusky as the defeensive coach, players will transtion well to the 3-4/4-3 and the front seven will be able to stop the run on running downs and applie presure on passing downs. I like our front 7 on D but between Mckinney and Johnson one wont make the team I expect Anunoby to take one of their spots. We play 12 game this season that our opponents will use a heavy doss of running the ball.

Bears-Vikings-Dolphins-Bills-Chiefs-Browns-Texans,Titans,Jaguars twice. #3 Luck will be just fine and wont be throwing as many pick as everyone thinks this kid is the real deal and most that feel other wise really dont know what Luck is bringing to the table, sure we can talk all day about how much tougher the NFL is compared to college and why it will be so hard on rookie QBs but if thats the case, how did Dalton do it Newton did it Roethlisberger when he was a rookie although Ben was on a much stronger team. Luck is a better Rookie then all of them comming out of college, heck he is the best QB to come out of college in over ten year. Most important thing about Luck for this year is the amount of talent that the colts are putting around him like Reggie, Collie Avery, Hilton,brazill,Whalen Sambrano not to mention the TEs. Man this kid is special and the NFL will find out why very soon. #8 We should see more of the RB but trust me we will be going deep and putting the ball in the air just more balanced. We have a large amont of speed on Offence and Defence and Special Team. All I know is we can talk all day about the things that Jim Irsay does but so far I love every move he has made and I truly feel that GM Ryan Grigson is the best man for the job and we are lucky to have him.. One things for sure we will look nothing like we did last year.

[colts1993]

I agree with 4,5,6,7,8 but thats it we will not be in the top ten when the draft comes back around do to the retool. #2 this is the best coaching staff we have had in years if ever and the D has been a weekness for years, with Pagano as head coach and Manusky as the defeensive coach, players will transtion well to the 3-4/4-3 and the front seven will be able to stop the run on running downs and applie presure on passing downs. I like our front 7 on D but between Mckinney and Johnson one wont make the team I expect Anunoby to take one of their spots. We play 12 game this season that our opponents will use a heavy doss of running the ball.

Bears-Vikings-Dolphins-Bills-Chiefs-Browns-Texans,Titans,Jaguars twice. #3 Luck will be just fine and wont be throwing as many pick as everyone thinks this kid is the real deal and most that feel other wise really dont know what Luck is bringing to the table, sure we can talk all day about how much tougher the NFL is compared to college and why it will be so hard on rookie QBs but if thats the case, how did Dalton do it Newton did it Roethlisberger when he was a rookie although Ben was on a much stronger team. Luck is a better Rookie then all of them comming out of college, heck he is the best QB to come out of college in over ten year. Most important thing about Luck for this year is the amount of talent that the colts are putting around him like Reggie, Collie Avery, Hilton,brazill,Whalen Sambrano not to mention the TEs. Man this kid is special and the NFL will find out why very soon. #8 We should see more of the RB but trust me we will be going deep and putting the ball in the air just more balanced. We have a large amont of speed on Offence and Defence and Special Team. All I know is we can talk all day about the things that Jim Irsay does but so far I love every move he has made and I truly feel that GM Ryan Grigson is the best man for the job and we are lucky to have him.. One things for sure we will look nothing like we did last year.

I agree

[mark5362]

I disagree with #1, Here's why. almost all good-great rookie q,b's coming into the nfl have to find there go to guy.Andrew has two. Cody and Griff will know what to do and where to be in andrew's time of need.This will be worth 3 extra wins,so i say 6-10 to 8-8 drafting 15-20

[Mameluc]

I agree with all except #7 and . Bethea and Tom Z are very capable starters for years to come, depth is an issue at safety but Im not drafting for depth early

Also......Not one word about Corner?

i dont agree..Tommy Z has done noting to prove he is a starter....Pollard of all people was the starter with the ravens not him.

I have hopes for him, and really want him to become a capable starter but i agree with the OP, i can see us drafting a S next year

[Bubba_Rebel]

I think we will be a top 15 offense and defense. I also think Luck will have a great year and Vick Ballard will emerge as our starting RB for the future. I say Luck and co. will come back and beat Chicago 24-20 and start season 3-0. I say we finish 9-7...10-6 if things go really good!

[MR. Blueblood]

2) The defense will struggle mightily for the first 4-6 weeks. After that we will see a blossoming of our new defensive product. The players will be up to the task, but the recognition time and absorption of a new defensive scheme along with new names for all the plays and reads will have us just a split second slow for a while. In the NFL, that might as well be full seconds. Have a strong constitution as a fan, it will get better as the season progresses.

I agree with most everything in your post except for this. While you can argue that Houston might have better players at certain positions they switched to a 3-4 last year with practically no off season and their defense played exceptionally well. Pagano has stressed that he was going to make the defense simple for our players but complicated for opposing offenses. I would be really surprised if our defense "struggles mightily" for the length of time that you state. While there will be missed assignments and confusion from time to time I don't see it taking that long to jell into a more cohesive unit.

[Nobody]

I think we will be a top 15 offense and defense.

Nope.

I also think Luck will have a great year

Yep.

and Vick Ballard will emerge as our starting RB for the future.

Possibly.

I say Luck and co. will come back and beat Chicago 24-20

Definitely not.

and start season 3-0.

No.

I say we finish 9-7...10-6 if things go really good!

Absolutely, without a doubt, NO.

I like you're optimism, but these are just such unrealistic expectations.

To the OP, I agree with everything except #7 and #8.

[gspdx]

We need to remember that every other team out there is trying to improve too. We see all of this stuff in the off season and think we've done a really good job. And I'm not disagreeing with that. But most other fans are probably feeling the same way. So I would be surprised to see an offense and a defense that doesn't struggle some. New coaches, new players, new schemes. It's one thing to look good in parctice or even the preseason. It's a completely different thing once they are playing for real.

[Warhorse]

Thanks everyone for a lot of really great responses. I could not be more happy than to be wrong about number one and two. I'll gladly eat crow on those. I could have addressed Satale and the corners, but wrote that post like a usually do, it flows out of me without a draft.

Just a note, I did not mean to infer that we would be anything but a balanced team when it comes to running the ball. We have just been extremely inadequate at running it when we had to.

[jskinnz]

I disagree with #1, Here's why. almost all good-great rookie q,b's coming into the nfl have to find there go to guy.Andrew has two. Cody and Griff will know what to do and where to be in andrew's time of need.This will be worth 3 extra wins,so i say 6-10 to 8-8 drafting 15-20

I think counting on a combo of Fleener & Whalan to be worth an extra 3 wins is really funny when the odds are stacked against Whalan actually making the 53.

[ColtsPRIDE11]

Summer is here, football is like a distant friend who is on vacation. This board is loaded with thread after thread of blah vs blah, blah is better than blah, and should we should try to get blah now that he is released?

Here are 10 things that are on my mind regarding this team. (in no order of importance)

1) We will be drafting somewhere between the #1 and #10 next season. I know that high hopes are everyone's right, and I am not trying to wet any cornflakes. Just saying that the perfect storm of retooling and zero injuries is just a little to rare to count on.

... ... ... ...

10) I think that the injury bug that has plagued us will lessen with the focus on weight room dominance. I have always felt that the Colts had too many injuries and I think this is the year where we see some improvement.

Good thread. I like your 10 things you think you think. (I didn't re-post all of them to save space.)

To highlight a few things you said that absolutely agree with 100%:

3) Andrew Luck may have games where he throws more picks than TD's. Fact is, no matter how NFL ready he is, he will be facing corners who are experts at baiting with their eyes, jumping the route, and most have world class speed compared to the college game. In addition, timing on routes will be a work in progress and that spells more INT's than most fans would want.

I couldn't agree with this more. It's important for people to remember that while Andrew will be a great NFL QB, he is going to have rough games--everyone does esp in their rookie seasons.

5) Reggie Wayne staying here is a very big deal. He would have elevated his numbers by signing on with a team that had a legit #1, but he choose to be here. Very big deal.

HUGE DEAL! The respect I have for Reggie is only magnified 10 fold for his decision to stay with us. So many other players woulda waved goodbye and not look back. Not Reggie, he stuck with us. He sees the opportunity here and the future and what is being built and wants to help provide a solid foudation. Nope, not many like Reggie out here. For him I would truly like to SHOCK THE WORLD this season. Here's to hoping that happens!

6) Cory Redding was the best offseason signing for this team. He is the perfect player, at the right price, with the right level of respect and experience, for the retooling of this D-line. If he stays healthy (this is really important to the success of this retooling defense), the line will grow as the season progresses and within a few of years, we might even move beyond his services. Right now, he is very important. Nice guy too.

YES! YES! YES! I was so excited when we signed Redding I couldn't stand it. There were many nay sayers saying he was nothing and a waste of a pick up, but I say the value he brings in leadership and the fact that he is familiar with Pagano and the defense we will run is something that is of great value. I am glad to have him in a Colts uniform. Plus, Pagano saw something in him worth bringing to Indy. (Same goes for Tom Z regarding the last stmt.)

8) I think this season will mark the beginning of the Colts getting back to running the ball.

AMEN! HALLELUJIAH!! WHOO HOO!!!!!!!

9) Fleener is going to be a monster after the catch. I have watched many of his highlights and this guy gets his hips turned and his shoulders squared after the catch at a speed necessary to succeed in the NFL. He is going to be a load. I see him catching the 10' high frozen rope in the back of the endzone with ease.

Agreed. Given just a bit of time and Fleener WILL be THE top TE in the league (including better than Gronk).

Again, excellent thread and thanks for sharing!

[The Fish]

Jeff Beck is better than Hendrix... Good points

[oldunclemark]

Summer is here, football is like a distant friend who is on vacation. This board is loaded with thread after thread of blah vs blah, blah is better than blah, and should we should try to get blah now that he is released?

Here are 10 things that are on my mind regarding this team. (in no order of importance)

1) We will be drafting somewhere between the #1 and #10 next season. I know that high hopes are everyone's right, and I am not trying to wet any cornflakes. Just saying that the perfect storm of retooling and zero injuries is just a little to rare to count on.

2) The defense will struggle mightily for the first 4-6 weeks. After that we will see a blossoming of our new defensive product. The players will be up to the task, but the recognition time and absorption of a new defensive scheme along with new names for all the plays and reads will have us just a split second slow for a while. In the NFL, that might as well be full seconds. Have a strong constitution as a fan, it will get better as the season progresses.

3) Andrew Luck may have games where he throws more picks than TD's. Fact is, no matter how NFL ready he is, he will be facing corners who are experts at baiting with their eyes, jumping the route, and most have world class speed compared to the college game. In addition, timing on routes will be a work in progress and that spells more INT's than most fans would want.

4) This will likely be Adam V's last year with the Colts. He has been a great kicker for us, the game against the Ravens in the playoffs (5 big time kicks) as big as any. I wish he could be here for one more SB and possibly hang his cleats here..........na, he's gonna go into the hall as a Pat.

5) Reggie Wayne staying here is a very big deal. He would have elevated his numbers by signing on with a team that had a legit #1, but he choose to be here. Very big deal. I know that Fleener is the guy everyone is talking about when it comes to Luck's safety valve (including me), but I think that Reggie is going to be the most most important single player to Luck next season.

6) Cory Redding was the best offseason signing for this team. He is the perfect player, at the right price, with the right level of respect and experience, for the retooling of this D-line. If he stays healthy (this is really important to the success of this retooling defense), the line will grow as the season progresses and within a few of years, we might even move beyond his services. Right now, he is very important. Nice guy too.

7) Safety is the position that seriously needs attention in next years draft. ABeth is awesome, but has taken a pounding. Tom is a feisty player, Hines and Caldwell are the only players over 210, but I truly see most of these guys not on this team in three to four years. I think the future of the S position starts in next years draft.

8) I think this season will mark the beginning of the Colts getting back to running the ball. Remember 2006? Or way back to the playoffs with Harbaugh with Zack Crockett? That kind of running the ball. Yes, count on it, my friends. the Colts are gonna pound the ball in the A and B gap once again.

9) Fleener is going to be a monster after the catch. I have watched many of his highlights and this guy gets his hips turned and his shoulders squared after the catch at a speed necessary to succeed in the NFL. He is going to be a load. I see him catching the 10' high frozen rope in the back of the endzone with ease.

10) I think that the injury bug that has plagued us will lessen with the focus on weight room dominance. I have always felt that the Colts had too many injuries and I think this is the year where we see some improvement.

Lots of god thoughts....except for 8 and 10.

the Colts didnt have more injuries than other teams..

..and every NFL city BELIEVES their team has more injuries than anybody else...Bear fans feel the same way

We didnt draft the No.1 passing QB in this century and three receivers to run the ball more.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Nice thread.

Ten Responses.

1) I would shift that to 5-15. If this team fails to win 6+games then they have failed at building a team.

2) I believe they will have some ups and downs, but for the most part they face weak to average at best offenses over that 4-6 week range. Chicago will be a decent test, Green Bay will have one of the top offenses in the league, but outside of that the Jets/Browns will likely be the best the face in those first 6 weeks and they may be in the process of being Tebowized so they could quickly drop from 3 to anywhere behind that. Cleveland will be interesting to watch. They might have a decent offense early on but the good thing is that there will be 5 or so weeks of tape on them heading into that game. Minnesota/Jacksonville/ should not make this defense struggle in any way.

3) There is no doubt he will have his ups and downs. He will face talent that he hasn't came close to facing. He will see schemes that he hasn't faced. He will make mistakes. The key is learning from those mistakes. It will take some time for him to learn the difference of open in college and open in the pros.

4) Agreed. 08-09 he had some health issues that limited him to an extent. Could have really used him in the 09 SB instead of foolishly sending Stover out for a 51 yard fg, but that is coaching as much as it was on Stover. He'll go into the Hall as a Patriot, as he should, and I'm still surprised he made it through the roster purge earlier in the year.

5) I'm not sold on Wayne being a legit #1 at this point. Here or anywhere else. I think he took the best on the table, and the fact that it was his previous team was the cherry on top. I would have liked for him to take on a larger leadership roll by staying in Indy in the offseason so all of the skill positions players would have been in Indy to work out with the 2 young quarterbacks and the rest of the guys. Showing up in a hard hat and dump truck is cute and all, but, I wish he would have taken it up on himself to fly the guys to Stanford while Luck was still in school in between minicamps and such. A pipe dream I guess.

6) & 7) Redding and Z at safety were key signings they can help the book ends of the defense understand the schemes and concepts a little better. Discussing things like that with a fellow player at times can be more beneficial than doing so with a coach. I agree that Safety will be a need moving forward.

8) I'm not buying this for 2 main reasons. Arians & the offseason. If the team wanted to be more of a smash mouth running team then I believe they could have gone in different directions at OC & in the draft. Drafting a QB @ 1 and then TE threats @ 2 & 3 doesn't suggest a concentration on the running game. There were different avenues to take to obtain that goal. One of the reasons Arians was canned in Pitt was due to him going away from the running game and putting the pig in the air quite a bit more than the powers-to-be in Pittsburgh wanted. He's going to throw the ball and I would be shocked if we had anything less than a 55-57 to 44-43 pass to run ratio at the end of the year. Hopefully they will run the ball better than the last couple of years but I'm not so sure of that.

9) He should be a monster after the catch. I don't know if he will have a Gronk effect or not, but he will be Luck's security blanket. The connection they developed at Stanford is going to be much stronger than what Luck will have developed with Wayne, Collie or anyone else. He will also be covered by much better athletes so there will be an adjustment there as well.

10) One can only hope.

[MR. Blueblood]

Nice thread.

Ten Responses.

1) I would shift that to 5-15. If this team fails to win 6+games then they have failed at building a team.

2) I believe they will have some ups and downs, but for the most part they face weak to average at best offenses over that 4-6 week range. Chicago will be a decent test, Green Bay will have one of the top offenses in the league, but outside of that the Jets/Browns will likely be the best the face in those first 6 weeks and they may be in the process of being Tebowized so they could quickly drop from 3 to anywhere behind that. Cleveland will be interesting to watch. They might have a decent offense early on but the good thing is that there will be 5 or so weeks of tape on them heading into that game. Minnesota/Jacksonville/ should not make this defense struggle in any way.

3) There is no doubt he will have his ups and downs. He will face talent that he hasn't came close to facing. He will see schemes that he hasn't faced. He will make mistakes. The key is learning from those mistakes. It will take some time for him to learn the difference of open in college and open in the pros.

4) Agreed. 08-09 he had some health issues that limited him to an extent. Could have really used him in the 09 SB instead of foolishly sending Stover out for a 51 yard fg, but that is coaching as much as it was on Stover. He'll go into the Hall as a Patriot, as he should, and I'm still surprised he made it through the roster purge earlier in the year.

5) I'm not sold on Wayne being a legit #1 at this point. Here or anywhere else. I think he took the best on the table, and the fact that it was his previous team was the cherry on top. I would have liked for him to take on a larger leadership roll by staying in Indy in the offseason so all of the skill positions players would have been in Indy to work out with the 2 young quarterbacks and the rest of the guys. Showing up in a hard hat and dump truck is cute and all, but, I wish he would have taken it up on himself to fly the guys to Stanford while Luck was still in school in between minicamps and such. A pipe dream I guess.

6) & 7) Redding and Z at safety were key signings they can help the book ends of the defense understand the schemes and concepts a little better. Discussing things like that with a fellow player at times can be more beneficial than doing so with a coach. I agree that Safety will be a need moving forward.

8) I'm not buying this for 2 main reasons. Arians & the offseason. If the team wanted to be more of a smash mouth running team then I believe they could have gone in different directions at OC & in the draft. Drafting a QB @ 1 and then TE threats @ 2 & 3 doesn't suggest a concentration on the running game. There were different avenues to take to obtain that goal. One of the reasons Arians was canned in Pitt was due to him going away from the running game and putting the pig in the air quite a bit more than the powers-to-be in Pittsburgh wanted. He's going to throw the ball and I would be shocked if we had anything less than a 55-57 to 44-43 pass to run ratio at the end of the year. Hopefully they will run the ball better than the last couple of years but I'm not so sure of that.

9) He should be a monster after the catch. I don't know if he will have a Gronk effect or not, but he will be Luck's security blanket. The connection they developed at Stanford is going to be much stronger than what Luck will have developed with Wayne, Collie or anyone else. He will also be covered by much better athletes so there will be an adjustment there as well.

10) One can only hope.

One of my favorite posts that I have read of yours, really a top notch piece!

[TKnight24]

excellent thread. I agree with all of it except the S mention. Bethea & the Z man (cant spell his real name, so I nicknamed him lol) will be Great players. Now, do we need better backup players for them? Mmmm yeah, that could be argued (maybe sign bob sanders for those of you that want him back). But I think the #1 Priority on D is the CB position. But if somehow our CB's do play this year with a chip on their shoulder & silence all the doubts and criticism, then congratulations to them and that means we can improve other positions. Other than that topic, this is really an excellent thread

[DoomOf21]

We didnt draft the No.1 passing QB in this century and three receivers to run the ball more.

Nice thread.

5). Showing up in a hard hat and dump truck is cute and all, but, I wish he would have taken it up on himself to fly the guys to Stanford while Luck was still in school in between minicamps and such. A pipe dream I guess.

8) I'm not buying this for 2 main reasons. Arians & the offseason. If the team wanted to be more of a smash mouth running team then I believe they could have gone in different directions at OC & in the draft. Drafting a QB @ 1 and then TE threats @ 2 & 3 doesn't suggest a concentration on the running game. There were different avenues to take to obtain that goal. One of the reasons Arians was canned in Pitt was due to him going away from the running game and putting the pig in the air quite a bit more than the powers-to-be in Pittsburgh wanted. He's going to throw the ball and I would be shocked if we had anything less than a 55-57 to 44-43 pass to run ratio at the end of the year. Hopefully they will run the ball better than the last couple of years but I'm not so sure of that.

@OP nice thread, well thought out but tempered with caution.

Concerning thought #8,

2006: Rushing ypg rank 18th 110.1

2011: 26th 99.6

2010: 29th 92.7

2009: 32nd 80.9 (A full eight yards less per game then the next ranked team. Interestingly, only twelve ypg less than the Texans who were first last year.)

1999: 19th(!) 103.8 (Super interesting reference considering Edge had 1500 yards that season.

I don't know why people are thinking attributing a run first, run later, run some more attitude to #8 of the OP. I think Warhorse is just optimistic about the returning to a balanced and run capable (not run heavy) offense.

Also, FJC I think you are just dreaming a little too much about Reggie not going to Stanford. We haven't heard about too much offseason interaction between Reggie and Luck, but fear not. Somebody posted a link were Reggie had Luck and a number of the other recievers chilling at MIami's weightroom. So I'm sure they are getting there.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Also, FJC I think you are just dreaming a little too much about Reggie not going to Stanford. We haven't heard about too much offseason interaction between Reggie and Luck, but fear not. Somebody posted a link were Reggie had Luck and a number of the other recievers chilling at MIami's weightroom. So I'm sure they are getting there.

Maybe it's wrong for me to compare 87 to 18, but I know what 18 has done in the past. More than once. So maybe I am guilty of holding him up to the leadership that used to be here.

The U pic was recent. It's something, but there was an awful lot of time that could have been used that seems to have been wasted. Also, if it would have been in Indy as opposed to Miami, maybe more players would have been included in that picture. Just sayin.

[Mameluc]

8) I'm not buying this for 2 main reasons. Arians & the offseason. If the team wanted to be more of a smash mouth running team then I believe they could have gone in different directions at OC & in the draft. Drafting a QB @ 1 and then TE threats @ 2 & 3 doesn't suggest a concentration on the running game. There were different avenues to take to obtain that goal. One of the reasons Arians was canned in Pitt was due to him going away from the running game and putting the pig in the air quite a bit more than the powers-to-be in Pittsburgh wanted. He's going to throw the ball and I would be shocked if we had anything less than a 55-57 to 44-43 pass to run ratio at the end of the year. Hopefully they will run the ball better than the last couple of years but I'm not so sure of that.

I dont think he meant we would become jacksonville/minnesota/San fran...i think the style we will use when we run the ball would be more of power running game, not zone/stretch

[southwest1]

Nice thread.

Ten Responses.

1) I would shift that to 5-15. If this team fails to win 6+games then they have failed at building a team.

2) I believe they will have some ups and downs, but for the most part they face weak to average at best offenses over that 4-6 week range. Chicago will be a decent test, Green Bay will have one of the top offenses in the league, but outside of that the Jets/Browns will likely be the best the face in those first 6 weeks and they may be in the process of being Tebowized so they could quickly drop from 3 to anywhere behind that. Cleveland will be interesting to watch. They might have a decent offense early on but the good thing is that there will be 5 or so weeks of tape on them heading into that game. Minnesota/Jacksonville/ should not make this defense struggle in any way.

3) There is no doubt he will have his ups and downs. He will face talent that he hasn't came close to facing. He will see schemes that he hasn't faced. He will make mistakes. The key is learning from those mistakes. It will take some time for him to learn the difference of open in college and open in the pros.

4) Agreed. 08-09 he had some health issues that limited him to an extent. Could have really used him in the 09 SB instead of foolishly sending Stover out for a 51 yard fg, but that is coaching as much as it was on Stover. He'll go into the Hall as a Patriot, as he should, and I'm still surprised he made it through the roster purge earlier in the year.

5) I'm not sold on Wayne being a legit #1 at this point. Here or anywhere else. I think he took the best on the table, and the fact that it was his previous team was the cherry on top. I would have liked for him to take on a larger leadership roll by staying in Indy in the offseason so all of the skill positions players would have been in Indy to work out with the 2 young quarterbacks and the rest of the guys. Showing up in a hard hat and dump truck is cute and all, but, I wish he would have taken it up on himself to fly the guys to Stanford while Luck was still in school in between minicamps and such. A pipe dream I guess.

6) & 7) Redding and Z at safety were key signings they can help the book ends of the defense understand the schemes and concepts a little better. Discussing things like that with a fellow player at times can be more beneficial than doing so with a coach. I agree that Safety will be a need moving forward.

8) I'm not buying this for 2 main reasons. Arians & the offseason. If the team wanted to be more of a smash mouth running team then I believe they could have gone in different directions at OC & in the draft. Drafting a QB @ 1 and then TE threats @ 2 & 3 doesn't suggest a concentration on the running game. There were different avenues to take to obtain that goal. One of the reasons Arians was canned in Pitt was due to him going away from the running game and putting the pig in the air quite a bit more than the powers-to-be in Pittsburgh wanted. He's going to throw the ball and I would be shocked if we had anything less than a 55-57 to 44-43 pass to run ratio at the end of the year. Hopefully they will run the ball better than the last couple of years but I'm not so sure of that.

9) He should be a monster after the catch. I don't know if he will have a Gronk effect or not, but he will be Luck's security blanket. The connection they developed at Stanford is going to be much stronger than what Luck will have developed with Wayne, Collie or anyone else. He will also be covered by much better athletes so there will be an adjustment there as well.

10) One can only hope.

One of my favorite posts that I have read of yours, really a top notch piece!

Like I said before FJC, you are a very compelling writer and apparently Mr. Blueblood and several other bloggers concur with my overall assessment in a different topic recently.

Yes, our new OC does indeed prefer the ariel attack over the ground game. I agree 100%. I just hope we strive for balance on the ground and in the air eventually.

[NewColtsFan]

By the way..... props to Warhorse for getting this started... and lots of good responses (shout-out FJC) but one person needs to be acknowledged here and he's not in this thread...

The title of this thread... 10 Things I think I think.... is the idea of SI's Senior NFL writer, Peter King. One of the best in the business. King does this on his very popular series called Monday Morning Quarterback. It's the last item in the feature. Always a great read.

Hey, I always say, if you're going to steal, steal from the BEST!! Well done, Warhorse!

[FireJimCaldwell]

I dont think he meant we would become jacksonville/minnesota/San fran...i think the style we will use when we run the ball would be more of power running game, not zone/stretch

Could be.

[gbrads_rants]

i dont agree..Tommy Z has done noting to prove he is a starter....Pollard of all people was the starter with the ravens not him.

I have hopes for him, and really want him to become a capable starter but i agree with the OP, i can see us drafting a S next year

You act as if Pollard is a joke lol, Tommy Z is solid in my opinion but he's behind a first ballot HOF in Ed Reed and Pollard, Pagano was he coach...he knows something we dont....

[gbrads_rants]

I loved the Zach Crockett reference......good times.

[funktacious2]

I disagree with #1, Here's why. almost all good-great rookie q,b's coming into the nfl have to find there go to guy.Andrew has two. Cody and Griff will know what to do and where to be in andrew's time of need.This will be worth 3 extra wins,so i say 6-10 to 8-8 drafting 15-20

IF Whalen even makes the team, I don't think we'll see him enough on the field to be a "go to guy". No offense to the guy, he seems like a hard worker and I'm kind of rooting for him, but he wasn't exactly all that productive at the college level, so I have to wonder about him and the NFL level.

[TKnight24]

IF Whalen even makes the team, I don't think we'll see him enough on the field to be a "go to guy". No offense to the guy, he seems like a hard worker and I'm kind of rooting for him, but he wasn't exactly all that productive at the college level, so I have to wonder about him and the NFL level.

I guess he must be a Whalen Fan if you're Crazy enough to think Whalen will be a "Go-To-Guy" instead of #87 who's been the "Go-To-Guy" for the past few years 0_o . Not saying Whalen is a Bum or anything. But with Wayne, Collie, & Avery there... may be awhile before he gets that Title....if he even does

[FireJimCaldwell]

Whalen will be lucky to be productive as Blair White was or to see the amount of playing time Blair White saw.

If he even makes the team at all.

[Gavin]

Really there appears to be only 4 locks this season at wide receiver, Wayne, Collie, Hilton, Avery and I dont think Avery is even a guarantee, Has our coaches said things about a couple of our other wide receivers? sure but thats to be taken with a grain of salt

[TKnight24]

Really there appears to be only 4 locks this season at wide receiver, Wayne, Collie, Hilton, Avery and I dont think Avery is even a guarantee, Has our coaches said things about a couple of our other wide receivers? sure but thats to be taken with a grain of salt

No Brazill? Why draft him, if we not gonna use him at WR? unless he's doing Special Teams

[Gavin]

No Brazill? Why draft him, if we not gonna use him at WR? unless he's doing Special Teams

Forgot about him in the shuffle but I think he will be a special teamer

[TKnight24]

Forgot about him in the shuffle but I think he will be a special teamer

Whew, thought they were gonna let my Guy go. But if you look at the Highlights & Stats.... T.Y. Hilton did more Damage on ST at FIU than LaVon Brazill did at Ohio. Brazill was more of a WR. Hilton was the EXPLOSIVE Special Team Player

[jskinnz]

You act as if Pollard is a joke lol, Tommy Z is solid in my opinion but he's behind a first ballot HOF in Ed Reed and Pollard, Pagano was he coach...he knows something we dont....

Pollard is a joke and Zbikowski was behind him. Zbikowski was so good, the Ravens had to bring in a guy who is on his 3rd NFL team in 6 years to play in front him. I think what Pagano knows is that he had a gaping hole at safety and there was a marginal talent that he was familiar with available - so Joe Boxer ends up in Indy. First chance they get to replace him, they will.