Colts have the 15th pick in the draft. (MERGE)

[NewColtsFan]

5 minutes ago, DougDew said:

For most of his college career, IIRC, Woods was a blocking TE.  He became more of a pass catcher after he transferred to play his senior year, also IIRC.    I would wager that Woods could block as well as Mo, who isn't as great as it as billed, IMO.

 

Woods taking over for Mo, and adding Bowers as a truly elite Move TE, would give the Colts one of the best TE rooms in the NFL, two good options for AR, whereas now its a mediocre bunch missing that star player.  Would save some cap too with a Mo release. 

You are correct.   Three years at Okla St Woods was their blocking TE.   Transferred to Virginia where he became their receiving TE.  
 

Bowers certainly couldn’t hurt.  A good TE is always a QB’s best friend.   The question becomes will Brockers last until 15? 

[richard pallo]

3 hours ago, tweezy32 said:

They definitely know what they are going to do with the pick already. They have had months to prepare for this, if who is available they pick them or if not they pick this person or if these guys are gone, they trade. They have all these scenarios played out for sure. They know exactly what they are doing already. 

No they don’t.  They will have their board in place when the draft starts.  They have no way of knowing what will take place in front of them before they pick.  They can guess on different scenarios but it’s just a guess.  The can not possibly know all of the scenarios.  Guessing doesn’t equal reality.  I’m sure they are doing a lot of what ifs.  That’s what I would expect.  But that’s a far cry from definitely knowing what they will do with the pick.  

[stitches]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The bolded is an important qualifying factor. And of course, QB is a completely different discussion...

 

If you've genuinely evaluated the prospects, and you have two guys available that are pretty much equal on your board, and you default to the player who you expect can contribute the soonest, that's reasonable. I still think there's a potential adjustment for positional value, but that can vary depending on the prospects in question.

 

To me, getting the fullest value from the rookie contract is well down the list of considerations. There are too many factors that cannot be predicted -- performance, injury, etc. 

Plus... if the rookie is top tier talent (of the type you would regret not giving more snaps in year 1), he would very likely find himself a way into those snaps anyways. And this is especially true when our rotation at DE, for example, is nothing to write home about. 

[Superman]

46 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

Its probably the line.  I see the corners we could get as day one starters though and the DEs we could get are at risk of never being better than Paye and company.  

 

We should be looking at WRs too.  Im not sure how far down the list they will want to go if 3-4 have been picked already.  

 

My follow up is about what you think is the most cost-efficient way to acquire the needed players to make the defense work as designed. 

 

As to your point about risk, I guess... If you think specific DE prospects just aren't that good, that's one thing. I'm definitely against propping up a prospect just because he plays a position of perceived need. But I would think that if the Colts take a DE at #15, they see him as a potential game changing pass rusher, and the expectation is for him to exceed what the guys on the roster have shown so far. No one can know for sure, but that's the nature of the draft.

 

At corner, I just think that a fundamental reason why the Colts prefer their zone heavy scheme is because it's easier to find corners who can excel at zone coverage. So there's less of a premium on the position in this scheme, and that's by design. I also don't think the top 4-5 corners in this class fit Ballard's preferred profile. (Side point: This is not conventional thinking, but I think the order of importance in this defense is 3T, Edge, Will, FS, then CB. I think the objective is to take away big plays, funnel routes to the middle, and have rangy playmakers at Will and FS who can create turnovers. I'm not saying that's how I would build a defense, but I think that's the intention. Which also influences my thinking on Ballard's preferences in the draft.) 

 

The scheme element doesn't necessarily apply at WR, but I think the value at WR favors taking one on Day 2, and I think Ballard's appetite for second round WRs is well established. I'd be open to drafting a WR at #15, but I don't think the Colts will do it.

 

So if I was an oddsmaker, I'd favor the Colts going DE or DT at #15, just based on how I think the top of the draft will fall, and the players available. I think most fans prefer corner or WR, mostly because of perceived need, but I don't see that happening. Nothing would shock me, though.

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Why would risk prevent you from drafting a good prospect? The draft is a risk in general.

 

Stitches posted something yesterday, showing that DEs drafted outside of the first round are less likely to be starters than WRs drafted outside the first round. So it seems to me that if you're concerned about the risk of not getting a starter level DE, you'd want to use a first rounder on that position.

 

Let me ask this, because I think there's a healthy disagreement among a lot of people on this topic. For our defense to work as designed, what's more important, pass rush, or coverage? They obviously rely heavily on each other, but in your opinion, which one is more valuable?

 

 Thats easy. Having great coverage. If noone is open the rush will get there.

 

 Or, I wish we blitzed more like Spaignola does as QB's are considerably less accurate under duress.

 

 The best offenses have QB's that get rid of the ball quickly which negates to a degree the pass rush.

 Scholars here are buzzing madly about pressures. Joey Bosa had a crazy number of pressures but how many resulted in incompletions? He had 2 more sacks than Kwity and played roughly 175 more snaps.

 Detroit's Hutchinson, in their playoff loss, had no pressures, no sacks, and 1 tackle as I recall. And a heckuva player.

Truth is you better have really good ability at both, including highly intelligent fast players in the back seven.

[ColtStrong2013]

1 hour ago, BlackTiger said:

the DEs we could get are at risk of never being better than Paye and company. 

we risk losing Paye and company in the next year or two… Right? 

[ColtStrong2013]

15 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Thats easy. Having great coverage. If noone is open the rush will get there.

that’s simplifying something that is far from being simple… 

 

if no one is putting pressure up front, professional receivers are going to get open regardless of the coverage… and the top qb’s are going to pick it apart. 

[NewColtsFan]

39 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

we risk losing Paye and company in the next year or two… Right? 

Yes….   But we let Pitt play out his 4 year contract, then re-signed him.   We might do the same with Paye and Dayo.   

[ColtStrong2013]

18 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Yes….   But we let Pitt play out his 4 year contract, then re-signed him.   We might do the same with Paye and Dayo.   

not without risking him leaving. Of course. The argument could be made that the draft behind him in Pierce could be the same situation with a pass rusher. 

[NewColtsFan]

27 minutes ago, ColtStrong2013 said:

not without risking him leaving. Of course. The argument could be made that the draft behind him in Pierce could be the same situation with a pass rusher. 

Of course.   I don’t think I disagree.   But I think Ballard knows his players and if/when to gamble on bringing them back.  
 

Not sure I follow your comment about the draft behind him with Pierce be the same as pass rusher?   Can you elaborate?  

[ADnum1]

9 hours ago, stitches said:

Here are some Matt Harmon "Reception Perception" charts for the top receivers:

 

 

 

And here's the best of them... look at this one for Rome:

 

 

According to Harmon Odunze is the first receiver he's ever charted that has completely green route tree everywhere. He runs every route and he get gets open on every single route.

 

 

BTW MHJ's chart is not as impressive, but he mentions he was doubled the most out of any receiver in this draft class and his chart is still really really good. 

 

Really good info.

 

Thanks for sharing 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Thats easy. Having great coverage. If noone is open the rush will get there.

 

 Or, I wish we blitzed more like Spaignola does as QB's are considerably less accurate under duress.

 

 The best offenses have QB's that get rid of the ball quickly which negates to a degree the pass rush.

 Scholars here are buzzing madly about pressures. Joey Bosa had a crazy number of pressures but how many resulted in incompletions? He had 2 more sacks than Kwity and played roughly 175 more snaps.

 Detroit's Hutchinson, in their playoff loss, had no pressures, no sacks, and 1 tackle as I recall. And a heckuva player.

Truth is you better have really good ability at both, including highly intelligent fast players in the back seven.

 

So play great coverage, let the rush get there... but what about when you play Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar, etc.? 

 

And your next line seems contradictory. QBs are less accurate under pressure, but you prioritize playing coverage...? Your final line is true, they're dependent on each other, but if I had to choose between great pass rush and average coverage, or great coverage and average pass rush, I think I'm choosing great pass rush. I want to affect the QB, because all of my coverage will get a boost. Of course, it would be nice to be great at both.

 

Regarding pressures vs sacks, yes, context is needed. But it's pointless to try to reduce the topic down to the bolded. Sacks are obviously more important than pressures because they end the play, whereas the outcome from a pressure can range from really good (sack/turnover) to really bad (big play/TD). But pressures are still important, and pressure is cumulative. And on a fundamental level, you cannot get a sack if you don't get pressure. Being dismissive about pressures is somewhat myopic.

[BlackTiger]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

This is not conventional thinking, but I think the order of importance in this defense is 3T, Edge, Will, FS, then CB. I think the objective is to take away big plays, funnel routes to the middle, and have rangy playmakers at Will and FS who can create turnovers.

This is a good breakdown to explain their philosophy. It can work I guess but seems to have matchup problems against teams that have good QBs and WRs.  I think the Bengals game last year is good example of a team strong at WR exploiting this.

 

They line good WRs up against weak corners and we are in for a long day.

 

 

[ProblChld32]

17 hours ago, krunk said:

Since this is a WR surplus my thinking is teams may play this differently than if their was a lack of prospects. I don't completely shut out the draft projections but at the end of the day I know teams have their own criteria and it can often be quite different than what the talking heads think. I'm expecting somebody to be there who we didn't think would be there. For me the only guy I'm crossing off the list of possibility is MHJ.

I’m sure someone will most certainly slide I just don’t think it will be a WR. Possibly another position maybe Edge or CB. If you look at the current Draft order all the teams except maybe 2 or 3 before us have  a pressing need for a WR. 

[1959Colts]

2 hours ago, John Hammonds said:

Any news on the attempted talks with Blackmon?

 

Worst case scenario:  we don't sign Blackmon, or any other safety FA, miss out on what few guys there are in this very non-deep safety draft, and wind up going into the season with Cross and Thomas as our best two guys.  Ewwww.

If they don't sign anyone, I got a feeling Ballard may target Cooper DeJean in the draft

[jvan1973]

11 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

If they don't sign anyone, I got a feeling Ballard may target Cooper DeJean in the draft

Cooper is a corner

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

This is a good breakdown to explain their philosophy. It can work I guess but seems to have matchup problems against teams that have good QBs and WRs.  I think the Bengals game last year is good example of a team strong at WR exploiting this.

 

They line good WRs up against weak corners and we are in for a long day.

 

The big problem against the Bengals was practically zero pressure. I don't think it's a model for our intended scheme, because the scheme requires pressure to be successful. I agree that teams with good QBs and WRs can exploit this scheme, but the Bengals game was more about bad tackling, similar to the Falcons game. I'd probably point to the Saints game or the Bucs game as an example of what you're talking about.

[richard pallo]

27 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

If they don't sign anyone, I got a feeling Ballard may target Cooper DeJean in the draft

Could be.  I read where some teams see him as a safety others cornerback.  No consensus.

[JediXMan]

Crazy that the draft is a month away coming up on us quickly.

[ColtStrong2013]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Of course.   I don’t think I disagree.   But I think Ballard knows his players and if/when to gamble on bringing them back.  
 

Not sure I follow your comment about the draft behind him with Pierce be the same as pass rusher?   Can you elaborate?  

He could feel that he needs Paye to develop into a more complete edge rusher. He keeps promoting that he was great as a run defender, but needs to continue improving. He invested a 1st on him, so he could very well want to retain him. My thought on drafting an edge rusher at 15 is that it works as a hedge in the event you don’t retain Paye or if the player shows far more promise than Paye moving forward. My comment about Pierce is that he invested a good draft pick on him- so the argument could be made that had Pittman walked, he would have Pierce (although we all agree that Pierce hasn’t performed like we hoped, nor would he be a wr1 by any means). He would have options this draft had Pittman not worked out.

 

The idea was more behind longterm planning when Pierce was drafted. Keep them coming in the pipeline so that you have options, and ideally good ones. Remember when Phillip dorsett was drafted? Many thought at the time the idea was to add to the room and hedge in the event TY walked when his contract was up. I’m not opposed to looking at stacking premium position players in the 1st round. That provides depth at the position short term and options longterm. It lessens the burden on a 1st round rookie at those positions, giving them time to develop. 

[1959Colts]

1 hour ago, jvan1973 said:

Cooper is a corner

There are quite a few articles on the internet that say he may transition to safety in the NFL.

Interesting reads

[Shive]

19 minutes ago, 1959Colts said:

There are quite a few articles on the internet that say he may transition to safety in the NFL.

Interesting reads

He could, but I think he's way more athletic than people give him credit for and projects way better as CB. Definitely could be a good safety, but I think if we drafted him, he fits well as a boundary corner for us.

[1959Colts]

1 hour ago, richard pallo said:

Could be.  I read where some teams see him as a safety others cornerback.  No consensus.

As a Ballard type player, he seems to fit the bill. 

Big 10. Excels at zone coverage. Elite athlete. Special Teams standout, Good tackler. etc.

Colts may be able to trade back, and still land DeJean

 

Considered one of the Safest picks.

Seven 2024 NFL Draft Prospects Who Are Safest Bets to Succeed at Next Level

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10113875-7-2024-nfl-draft-prospects-who-are-safest-bets-to-succeed-at-next-level

 

DB Cooper DeJean, Iowa

 

A fractured fibula during a November practice tempered any excitement regarding Cooper DeJean's draft status. So he's not been in the same conversations as the class' top defensive backs, specifically Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell and Alabama's Terrion Arnold. DeJean's profile projects just as well or better than the aforementioned cornerbacks.

 

Three specific attributes set DeJean's floor higher than anyone else among the back end.

 

First, the reigning Big Ten Defensive Back of the Year presents the positional flexibility and traits to start at cornerback or safety at the professional level, with B/R's Cory Giddings highlighting his coverage skills:

 

"DeJean excels in zone coverage, but he's versatile enough to play man as well. He shows a smooth backpedal and the ability to keep his leverage and quick footwork with few wasted steps. Although he transitions well, there are times where DeJean hops into his breaks; allowing a step of separation.

 

"When in zone, DeJean does a great job of reading and reacting to the quarterback's eyes. Pairing that skill set with his route recognition, he often puts himself in good position with leverage and positioning.

 

"While working downfield, DeJean has the strength necessary to hand-fight with tight ends and bigger receivers, as well as the speed necessary to carry twitchier receivers downfield. He also does a very good job of locating the ball and playing through the catch point."

 

Second, the high school track standout is an elite athlete who captured Iowa state titles in the long jump and 100-meter dash. Many expected him to blow the doors off Lucas Oil Stadium. Unfortunately, he wasn't ready to test in Indianapolis after being cleared a few weeks earlier.

 

"His acceleration is incredibly fluid and super powerful," NFL combine trainer Jordan Luallen told The Athletic's Bruce Feldman last summer. "He's the best athlete I've seen in person, pound for pound."

 

Finally, DeJean adds significant value as an elite collegiate returner. Big Ten coaches also awarded him Return Specialist of the Year this past season. DeJean averaged 13.1 yards per punt return over the last two seasons.

A top-notch contributor anywhere along the defensive backfield and on special teams will provide excellent value in the NFL.

 

Potential Landing Spots: Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles

 

 

[1959Colts]

9 minutes ago, Shive said:

He could, but I think he's way more athletic than people give him credit for and projects way better as CB. Definitely could be a good safety, but I think if we drafted him, he fits well as a boundary corner for us.

 

Right. But we also are expected to draft a corner, So the fact that DeJean can play either position, makes me think Ballard could have his eye on him.

[Scott Pennock]

In my opinion if we are staying at 15 it’s because one on Nabers, Bowers, Rome or MHJ dropped to that spot.

 

Otherwise I see the FO trading down at least once to the bottom of the 1st or completely into day two……

 

No other offensive weapon has the upside of those 4 and worthy of a top half of the first round pick…..

 

 

[BProland85]

1 hour ago, Scott Pennock said:

In my opinion if we are staying at 15 it’s because one on Nabers, Bowers, Rome or MHJ dropped to that spot.

 

Otherwise I see the FO trading down at least once to the bottom of the 1st or completely into day two……

 

No other offensive weapon has the upside of those 4 and worthy of a top half of the first round pick…..

 

 

Couldn’t agree more. And that’s the way I want it. If one of those stud offensive players isn’t there at 15, I would want to trade down multiple times and still land an AD Mitchell. As for corner or safety, I think the value is in rounds 3 and 4 to address those areas of need. I’d still rather get a veteran safety to go along with resigning Blackmon versus drafting yet again another prospect there. 

[BeanDiasucci]

23 hours ago, tweezy32 said:

They definitely know what they are going to do with the pick already. They have had months to prepare for this, if who is available they pick them or if not they pick this person or if these guys are gone, they trade. They have all these scenarios played out for sure. They know exactly what they are doing already. 

How? They don't even have the RAS scores yet! 😜

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

It’s going to be Bowers, CB, or WR.  If it is WR I imagine they could trade down a few spots.

[Solid84]

Think it's going to be Bowers or WR, but I hope it's Bowers or DE/DT. WR in the 2nd.

[DattMavis]

15 hours ago, Shive said:

He could, but I think he's way more athletic than people give him credit for and projects way better as CB. Definitely could be a good safety, but I think if we drafted him, he fits well as a boundary corner for us.

I agree. Watch his film. He keeps up with everyone he covers. He could be an elite safety or corner. He's the best run stopping DB in the draft also.

[BProland85]

28 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Think it's going to be Bowers or WR, but I hope it's Bowers or DE/DT. WR in the 2nd.

Hoping it’s one of Odunze, Bowers, Nabers, or MHJ. The later 2 are obviously the least likely to be there. If all are gone trade down a few times, accumulate extra high picks, and get AD Mitchell. 

[DattMavis]

12 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Hoping it’s one of Odunze, Bowers, Nabers, or MHJ. The later 2 are obviously the least likely to be there. If all are gone trade down a few times, accumulate extra high picks, and get AD Mitchell. 

This is how I feel as well, but I've become comfortable with staying (or trading down) and picking DE or DB.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

54 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

Think it's going to be Bowers or WR, but I hope it's Bowers or DE/DT. WR in the 2nd.

We don’t need a DT right now and that is a waste of a pick.

[jvan1973]

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

We don’t need a DT right now and that is a waste of a pick.

No it isn't.   This is the last year on Buckners contract.  The draft isn't just for this season. 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

7 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

No it isn't.   This is the last year on Buckners contract.  The draft isn't just for this season. 

Who you cutting. We just signed Grover and David to not so cheap co tracts. Ballard is paying that dline a ton of money. That isn’t a need right now.

[jvan1973]

2 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Who you cutting. We just signed Grover and David to not so cheap co tracts. Ballard is paying that dline a ton of money. That isn’t a need right now.

No need to cut anyone.   The rookie would replace  Buckner next year.   If there is a great DT prospect. It wouldn't be a wasted pick

[MikeCurtis]

2 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

No need to cut anyone.   The rookie would replace  Buckner next year.   If there is a great DT prospect. It wouldn't be a wasted pick

I have no idea who Ballard will pick

but

I wouldn’t be surprised with a pick at

 

WR

CB

DT

DE

 

 

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

6 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

No need to cut anyone.   The rookie would replace  Buckner next year.   If there is a great DT prospect. It wouldn't be a wasted pick

We are talking about this year. You can’t keep that many without cutting someone or another position is going to have no depth. Wasting a puck at 15 on a DT does not improve thr team this year.

[stitches]

16 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

We are talking about this year. You can’t keep that many without cutting someone or another position is going to have no depth. Wasting a puck at 15 on a DT does not improve thr team this year.

We've seen Ballard cut players with not insignificant money or resources invested in them. He can easily just cut Taven Bryan after camp if we get a highly rated DT in the draft... Or hell even if a 3d-4th rounder outperforms Bryan... Or Adebawore... Or... Eric Johnson... Or multiple of them.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

4 minutes ago, stitches said:

We've seen Ballard cut players with not insignificant money or resources invested in them. He can easily just cut Taven Bryan after camp if we get a highly rated DT in the draft... Or hell even if a 3d-4th rounder outperforms Bryan... Or Adebawore... Or... Eric Johnson... Or multiple of them.

He just signed Lewis. Signed Grover to a big contract. Then paid Davis good money. I feel 100% he isn’t taking a DT. Now if for some reason Turner falls an edge maybe. But I doubt that is happening. There will be elite offensive weapons and probably some highly rated CB there.  The moves Ballard made in the FA period don’t scream DT pick.