MPJ IS a number 1. Period.

[w87r]

1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

I mean, Pittman's call sign is a hitch route short of the sticks. That's not really a big boy play in my opinion even if Pittman gets good mileage out of it. Pittman's ADOT (Average depth of target) is 8.1 this season - his career average is 8.6.

   It's also something as simple as TDs. Pittman has 15 TOTAL in his career (4 this season). That doesn't really mark him out as a huge threat.

   Then there's something like his ability to create from nothing. Pittman has forced 4 missed tackles this season. 24 Total in his career. He gets the ball, then runs in free space and gets tackled. He doesn't make defenders miss.

 

 

Let me preface this by saying, I think Pittman is having a really good season. He is going to get paid, I'm good anywhere in the $17-$21m range(not that that means anything).

 

 

Saying that , yes you are spot on here. I have looked a little bit at that link @chad72posted. Thanks for that. Need to delve deeper, but that will be for later.

 

 

These are my biggest issues with Pittman, lack of TDs, regardless who the QB is. He still sees the biggest chunk of targets. 

 

To add to that his yards after contact is just.... I'll just say I don't like it. He is a big guy and needs to break more tackles. That alone would increase his yards per reception avg, which isn't very good.

 

 

I know @Superman, was saying something in a post above, about that being more to how Pittman is being used. Which I agree with, but the team is using him that way because I think they feel that is the best way to utilize him. Which they are probably correct.

 

 

Anyway, like I said I skimmed through that link, and the thing that stood out the most in a quick, really quick peek, was the efficiency section.(which has already been my biggest issue with him)

 

#3 in targets

#14 in yards

#88 in yards per reception

#35 in TDs

#17 in 1st downs(that many possession WR targets and are #17 in 1st downs?)(more broken tackles would help this out as well)

4.59 yards after catch 

Not in the top 20 in first down % per reception

Not in top 20 for first down catches on 3rd down.

 

 

 

If someone can find YAC/per reception somewhere, I would like to see.where that 4.59 ranks from above, mquick searches hasn't netted me that yet and I don't feel like doing the math for the top 25-30 WRs at the moment.

 

 

Saying all that, I definitely want Pittman back.

 

Probably offer a:

4yr $84m with $50m guaranteed

 

Or

 

5yr - $100m $60m guaranteed 

[Solid84]

9 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Why can’t we pay Pittman and draft one too? 

I believe that's the route we're going. But jsut because we can doesn't mean we should just pay Pittman anything he wants.

 

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think he'll be at $28m. A couple years ago I projected close to $25m, but that was based on him improving production after 2021, which he has not. I still think the Colts keep him, he's basically the embodiment of a horseshoe player.

 

The Chargers have two $20m/year receivers. The Bucs will probably keep Mike Evans, and that will probably mean they have two. Those aren't exactly model franchises...

 

But we don't have to pay a QB yet. The Niners have Deebo and McCaffrey, and Aiyuk is coming up. I don't see Ballard signing a $20m/year WR, so if we're going to have this playmaking guy that everyone wants, we're probably going to have to draft him, which means three cost controlled seasons. I'd love to see Pierce become that guy, but that would mean we've already used two of his cost controlled seasons, with little production to show for it.

I think $25m is what we're looking at and I can't imagine Ballard letting him go let alone Irsay.

 

The best case is we draft a guy who produces from year 1 in my opinion. I was also hoping Pierce could (can?) be that guy, but we've gotten about ONE game from him so far that's shown he can be him and we're nearly through the 2nd year on his rookie deal already... and still hoping.

[richard pallo]

15 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

Why can’t we pay Pittman and draft one too? 

We are going to pay Pittman.  He’s Ballard’s guy and he’s earned a new contract that’s pretty obvious I think.  Not convinced we need to draft one early especially if Pierce finishes strong and Downs picks up where he left off.

[w87r]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I don't necessarily agree with everything you're saying here, but I get your point. I agree with the bolded, for sure, and I don't think Pittman is that player. So I think the Colts should continue to try to find that player.

 

But does that mean the Colts should move on from Pittman? That probably depends on his contract expectations, right? So what does the market say he should expect? This is where I think it's important to identify what kind of player Pittman is -- not just what he isn't -- and who he compares to. Because that's what his agent will be presenting.

 

I think if people spend the time to think about realistic comps for Pittman and the contracts those players have, it will be easier to project his market value. And then what it probably comes down to is whether the Colts should pay Pittman his market value, or let him leave in FA. Because trying to tie Pittman to a value that isn't supported by the market is kind of pointless. 

I'm thinking Amari Cooper.(put up Pittman type numbers prior to his 5yr $100m contract, it's a little outdated, (2020) but I still feel that is a good comp.

 

Other comparable guy this year is Garrett Wilson

 That doesn't help on a contract projection though.

[Solid84]

8 minutes ago, w87r said:

If someone can find YAC/per reception somewhere, I would like to see.where that 4.59 ranks from above, mquick searches hasn't netted me that yet and I don't feel like doing the math for the top 25-30 WRs at the moment.

Got it off PFF.

 

Will have to put it into a spread sheet and do some editing. I'll post it in a bit.

[w87r]

1 minute ago, Solid84 said:

Got it off PFF.

 

Will have to put it into a spread sheet and do some editing. I'll post it in a bit.

I don't even need to see the others but it would be good to see.

[w87r]

11 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

I can't imagine Ballard letting him go let alone Irsay.

Add Shane to that. He loves him.

[Superman]

8 minutes ago, w87r said:

I know @Superman, was saying something in a post above, about that being more to how Pittman is being used. Which I agree with, but the team is using him that way because I think they feel that is the best way to utilize him. Which they are probably correct.

 

I would counter that they use Pittman the way they do because he's the team's best receiving option, and putting him in high percentage situations provides reliable help for the QB. In other words, force feed Pittman on short routes so we can keep the offense moving.

 

I've been mentioning this lately, a lot of our passing production right now is schemed, and nearly all of it is schemed for Pittman. Some of it is counter intuitive, IMO. He's our best perimeter blocker, so it would make sense that he'd be used to block for bubble screens to Downs and McKenzie. Instead, we throw the bubble screens to Pittman. We throw stick routes and slants to Pittman, especially on the outside (Downs catches his from the slot). And then we send Pierce on deep routes, but don't really throw to him. Pittman also faces the #1 corner, and if anyone gets doubled, it's usually him.

 

Now I don't think Pittman is going to burn DBs or bust double teams on deep routes, and I don't want them to try to force him the ball down the field. That's not his strength, and we don't have the QB for it. But I think his usage speaks more to the circumstance than it does to his ability, even though his ability is obviously a factor.

[chad72]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

Now I don't think Pittman is going to burn DBs or bust double teams on deep routes, and I don't want them to try to force him the ball down the field. That's not his strength, and we don't have the QB for it. But I think his usage speaks more to the circumstance than it does to his ability, even though his ability is obviously a factor.

 

He has good size like Deebo Samuel and he can get a lot of receptions in the middle as well like Deebo. I always wondered why they don't use him on sweeps with folks blocking. Is it because we don't have good blockers in space with our pass catchers like the 49ers? Aiyuk, Kittle all block like crazy for Deebo. Is that the element we haven't utilized with Pittman? It does make me wonder. Like that Browns game 75 yard TD showed, he can be sneaky fast in a foot race with YAC. Rivers led him with a lot of YAC in 2020, the same way Rivers used to with Mike Williams or Keenan Allen.

[Superman]

2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

He has good size like Deebo Samuel and he can get a lot of receptions in the middle as well like Deebo. I always wondered why they don't use him on sweeps with folks blocking. Is it because we don't have good blockers in space with our pass catchers like the 49ers? Aiyuk, Kittle all block like crazy for Deebo. Is that the element we haven't utilized with Pittman? It does make me wonder.

 

Primarily I think it's because Deebo is a monster at YAC, and Pittman doesn't have it like that. MPJ has 354 yards after catch this year, and 75 of that came on one play. That takes his 4.6 YAC/reception down to about 3.2. This is probably more of a McKenzie feature, and he barely gets playing time.

 

I also think there are probably elements of Steichen's offense that we haven't really seen yet.

[w87r]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I would counter that they use Pittman the way they do because he's the team's best receiving option, and putting him in high percentage situations provides reliable help for the QB. In other words, force feed Pittman on short routes so we can keep the offense moving.

 

I've been mentioning this lately, a lot of our passing production right now is schemed, and nearly all of it is schemed for Pittman. Some of it is counter intuitive, IMO. He's our best perimeter blocker, so it would make sense that he'd be used to block for bubble screens to Downs and McKenzie. Instead, we throw the bubble screens to Pittman. We throw stick routes and slants to Pittman, especially on the outside (Downs catches his from the slot). And then we send Pierce on deep routes, but don't really throw to him. Pittman also faces the #1 corner, and if anyone gets doubled, it's usually him.

 

Now I don't think Pittman is going to burn DBs or bust double teams on deep routes, and I don't want them to try to force him the ball down the field. That's not his strength, and we don't have the QB for it. But I think his usage speaks more to the circumstance than it does to his ability, even though his ability is obviously a factor.

I won't argue any of that.

 

As when I said best way to utilize Pittman, I meant for him and us.

 

Like you said he is a great check down/quick short throw, target guy..

 

Helps him pad his receptions numbers(as he is passing our legends in the record books) and help us keep the ball moving.

 

 

That YAC though, needs to improve as does that 1st down total %, as well as the 3rd down 1st down catches. And TDs.

 

And to be clear, I know Pittman can go down the field and not be used as just a possession type WR. I think they are utilizing him the best way though. He just needs to make more plays with the ball in his hand, after the catch. 

[jvan1973]

Pittman is going to get paid.   . 20+ million.   

[Solid84]

5 minutes ago, w87r said:

I don't even need to see the others but it would be good to see.

WRs only. At least 40 targets.

 

Rank -- player -- targets -- YAC/REC

1 -- Deebo Samuel -- 51 -- 9.5

2 -- Rashee Rice -- 64 -- 8.1

3 -- Demario Douglas -- 53 -- 7.4

4 -- Nico Collins -- 85 -- 7.2

5 -- Tyreek Hill -- 123 -- 6.5

6 -- DJ Moore -- 92 -- 6.5

7 -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- 66 -- 6.2

8 -- Ja'Marr Chase -- 120 -- 6.0

9 -- Kendrick Bourne -- 55 -- 5.6

10 -- Odell Beckham Jr. -- 46 -- 5.6

11 -- Rondale Moore -- -- 46 -- 5.6

12 -- Jaylen Waddle -- 83 -- 5.5

13 -- Josh Downs -- 74 -- 5.5

14 -- D.K. Metcalf -- 83 -- 5.4

15 -- George Pickens -- 76 -- 5.3

16 -- Puka Nacua -- 113 -- 5.2

17 -- Cooper Kupp -- 57 -- 5.2

18 -- Justin Jefferson -- 52 -- 5.2

19 -- Darius Slayton -- 50 -- 5.1

20 -- A.J. Brown -- 115 -- 5.0

21 -- Amon-Ra St. Brown -- 110 -- 5.0

22 -- Zay Flowers -- 77 -- 5.0

23 -- Brandon Aiyuk -- 69 -- 4.9

24 -- Jayden Reed -- 60 -- 4.8

25 -- Michael Pittman Jr. -- 121 -- 4.6

26 -- CeeDee Lamb -- 119 -- 4.5

27 -- Mike Evans -- 99 -- 4.4

28 -- Christian Kirk -- 80 -- 4.4

29 -- Chris Olave -- 111 -- 4.3

30 -- Curtis Samuel -- 64 -- 4.3

31 -- Diontae Johnson -- 59 -- 4.3

32 -- Josh Reynolds -- 42 -- 4.3

33 -- Chris Godwin -- 81 -- 4.2

34 -- K.J. Osborn -- 54 -- 4.2

35 -- Rashid Shaheed -- 52 -- 4.2

36 -- Jerry Jeudy -- 56 -- 4.1

37 -- Tee Higgins -- 53 -- 4.1

38 -- Tyler Boyd -- 76 -- 3.9

39 -- Jonathan Mingo -- 65 -- 3.9

40 -- Wan'Dale Robinson -- 44 -- 3.9

41 -- Stefon Diggs -- 119 -- 3.8

42 -- Christian Watson -- 53 -- 3.8

43 -- Keenan Allen -- 132 -- 3.7

44 -- Gabe Davis -- 64 -- 3.7

45 -- Michael Wilson -- 40 -- 3.7

46 -- Michael Gallup -- 46 -- 3.6

47 -- Quentin Johnston -- 43 -- 3.6

48 -- Adam Thielen -- 105 -- 3.5

49 -- Terry McLaurin -- 97 -- 3.5

50 -- Jordan Addison -- 80 -- 3.5

51 -- Davante Adams -- 114 -- 3.4

52 -- Amari Cooper -- 86 -- 3.4

53 -- Garrett Wilson -- 115 -- 3.3

54 -- Marquise Brown -- 94 -- 3.3

55 -- DeAndre Hopkins -- 91 -- 3.3

56 -- Elijah Moore -- 79 -- 3.2

57 -- DeVonta Smith -- 87 -- 3.1

58 -- Jakobi Meyers -- 76 -- 3.1

59 -- Tank Dell -- 74 -- 3.1

60 -- Drake London -- 71 -- 3.1

61 -- Tutu Atwell -- 61 -- 2.8

62 -- Brandin Cooks -- 52 -- 2.8

63 -- Allen Lazard -- 41 -- 2.8

64 -- Tyler Lockett -- 84 -- 2.7

65 -- Michael Thomas -- 63 -- 2.7

66 -- Robert Woods -- 53 -- 2.7

67 -- Calvin Ridley -- 83 -- 2.6

68 -- Alec Pierce -- 45 -- 2.6

69 -- JuJu Smith-Schuster -- 40 -- 2.6

70 -- Trey Palmer -- 46 -- 2.4

71 -- Courtland Sutton -- 73 -- 2.3

72 -- Romeo Doubs -- 71 -- 2.2

73 -- Jahan Dotson -- 70 -- 2.1

  

[Solid84]

2 minutes ago, Solid84 said:

WRs only. At least 40 targets.

 

Rank -- player -- targets -- YAC/REC

1 -- Deebo Samuel -- 51 -- 9.5

2 -- Rashee Rice -- 64 -- 8.1

3 -- Demario Douglas -- 53 -- 7.4

4 -- Nico Collins -- 85 -- 7.2

5 -- Tyreek Hill -- 123 -- 6.5

6 -- DJ Moore -- 92 -- 6.5

7 -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- 66 -- 6.2

8 -- Ja'Marr Chase -- 120 -- 6.0

9 -- Kendrick Bourne -- 55 -- 5.6

10 -- Odell Beckham Jr. -- 46 -- 5.6

11 -- Rondale Moore -- -- 46 -- 5.6

12 -- Jaylen Waddle -- 83 -- 5.5

13 -- Josh Downs -- 74 -- 5.5

14 -- D.K. Metcalf -- 83 -- 5.4

15 -- George Pickens -- 76 -- 5.3

16 -- Puka Nacua -- 113 -- 5.2

17 -- Cooper Kupp -- 57 -- 5.2

18 -- Justin Jefferson -- 52 -- 5.2

19 -- Darius Slayton -- 50 -- 5.1

20 -- A.J. Brown -- 115 -- 5.0

21 -- Amon-Ra St. Brown -- 110 -- 5.0

22 -- Zay Flowers -- 77 -- 5.0

23 -- Brandon Aiyuk -- 69 -- 4.9

24 -- Jayden Reed -- 60 -- 4.8

25 -- Michael Pittman Jr. -- 121 -- 4.6

26 -- CeeDee Lamb -- 119 -- 4.5

27 -- Mike Evans -- 99 -- 4.4

28 -- Christian Kirk -- 80 -- 4.4

29 -- Chris Olave -- 111 -- 4.3

30 -- Curtis Samuel -- 64 -- 4.3

31 -- Diontae Johnson -- 59 -- 4.3

32 -- Josh Reynolds -- 42 -- 4.3

33 -- Chris Godwin -- 81 -- 4.2

34 -- K.J. Osborn -- 54 -- 4.2

35 -- Rashid Shaheed -- 52 -- 4.2

36 -- Jerry Jeudy -- 56 -- 4.1

37 -- Tee Higgins -- 53 -- 4.1

38 -- Tyler Boyd -- 76 -- 3.9

39 -- Jonathan Mingo -- 65 -- 3.9

40 -- Wan'Dale Robinson -- 44 -- 3.9

41 -- Stefon Diggs -- 119 -- 3.8

42 -- Christian Watson -- 53 -- 3.8

43 -- Keenan Allen -- 132 -- 3.7

44 -- Gabe Davis -- 64 -- 3.7

45 -- Michael Wilson -- 40 -- 3.7

46 -- Michael Gallup -- 46 -- 3.6

47 -- Quentin Johnston -- 43 -- 3.6

48 -- Adam Thielen -- 105 -- 3.5

49 -- Terry McLaurin -- 97 -- 3.5

50 -- Jordan Addison -- 80 -- 3.5

51 -- Davante Adams -- 114 -- 3.4

52 -- Amari Cooper -- 86 -- 3.4

53 -- Garrett Wilson -- 115 -- 3.3

54 -- Marquise Brown -- 94 -- 3.3

55 -- DeAndre Hopkins -- 91 -- 3.3

56 -- Elijah Moore -- 79 -- 3.2

57 -- DeVonta Smith -- 87 -- 3.1

58 -- Jakobi Meyers -- 76 -- 3.1

59 -- Tank Dell -- 74 -- 3.1

60 -- Drake London -- 71 -- 3.1

61 -- Tutu Atwell -- 61 -- 2.8

62 -- Brandin Cooks -- 52 -- 2.8

63 -- Allen Lazard -- 41 -- 2.8

64 -- Tyler Lockett -- 84 -- 2.7

65 -- Michael Thomas -- 63 -- 2.7

66 -- Robert Woods -- 53 -- 2.7

67 -- Calvin Ridley -- 83 -- 2.6

68 -- Alec Pierce -- 45 -- 2.6

69 -- JuJu Smith-Schuster -- 40 -- 2.6

70 -- Trey Palmer -- 46 -- 2.4

71 -- Courtland Sutton -- 73 -- 2.3

72 -- Romeo Doubs -- 71 -- 2.2

73 -- Jahan Dotson -- 70 -- 2.1

  

If you take out that one game where he got 75 YAC (as @Superman mentioned above) bringing his YAC/REC down to 3.2 he's at 56.

[smittywerb]

4 hours ago, Superman said:

 

How much of this is a psychological desire to see the number be less than $20m/year?

Gotta read above, I said I’d offer him $22million but personally I wouldn’t give him more than $19million.  It’s negotiations.  I wouldn’t start at $19million because I know he’s going to garner higher than that, that’s just my personal opinion.

 

now, why do I think he’s a $19milllion WR?  Because looking at the salaries for other receivers that’s where he fits.  
 

Diontae Johnson gets $18.5.  Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin and a couple others get $20million.  Deebo Samuel and the other elites are $23million and up.

 

if you think he’s with the $23million and up crew (deebo, Tyreek, JJ, etc.) then I think that’s overvaluing him.  I said $19million because there are receivers in the $20s that affect all of the field while Pittman for majority of his career hasn’t, but I do think he’s better than the $18mill and below players.

 

but of course, that’s if he was being signed right now.  We don’t know what the tv deals and increased cap will garner him.  

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Do you agree that yards/catch (and even yards/target) is a stat that should be accompanied by a lot of context? For example, what's the difference between MPJ's stats in 2021 vs 2023? Isn't it the state of the offense, and the quality of the QBing?

 

Speaking of context, to the red bolded, Pittman is #2 in total targets, #5 in target share, and #83 in average target distance (all per playerprofiler). Doesn't that speak to his usage and role in a limited passing offense?

 

Wherever you land on any of that, what I think is important is to determine whether Pittman's production (total, and average) speaks more to the circumstances, or to his ability. And I think there's a lot of grey area in there, but the "really BAD" number you're hanging on to speaks more to the circumstances, IMO.

The problem with circumstance is that everyone has them. To me it’s not fair to single out Pittman as if he has had more unfortunate circumstances than any other receiver. It’s part of the game. I’ve have always been of the belief that elite players produce, regardless of circumstance.

 

As for context, it does play a part but there has to be a track record. For example, when talking about low YPR, you know who else is ranked pretty low? Stefan Diggs. He’s ranked 57th with 11.7. Why does context matter with him? He’s got a proven track record of production where he’s far exceeded those numbers. Pittman has been in the league since 2020 and hasn’t ever eclipsed more than 12.6 YPR in a year. So rather than give context, it’s easier to say that this is probably the norm for him. 
 

Bad QB play can’t be the excuse every year. He’s on pace for 1,000 this year as he was in 2021, because he’s the go to target on the team. QBs will get their best receivers the ball (see Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins pre-Watson, etc…) regardless. And we just saw Minshew throw the ball deep to Pierce a couple times against the Titans so we can’t use Minshew as the context. Same in 2021 with Wentz. The bad QB had T.Y. Hilton at a 14.4 YPR and he only played 10 games. 
 

 

So I think his production speaks to his ability and not circumstance. The only circumstance you can give him is his rookie year because he missed a bunch of games, and maybe last year because the QB play, Coaching, and O-line were some of the worst we’ve ever seen. But even still…Pierce averaged 14 YPR with the same circumstances last year, just saying.

[Superman]

12 minutes ago, smittywerb said:

Gotta read above, I said I’d offer him $22million but personally I wouldn’t give him more than $19million.  It’s negotiations.  I wouldn’t start at $19million because I know he’s going to garner higher than that, that’s just my personal opinion.

 

now, why do I think he’s a $19milllion WR?  Because looking at the salaries for other receivers that’s where he fits.  
 

Diontae Johnson gets $18.5.  Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin and a couple others get $20million.  Deebo Samuel and the other elites are $23million and up.

 

if you think he’s with the $23million and up crew (deebo, Tyreek, JJ, etc.) then I think that’s overvaluing him.  I said $19million because there are receivers in the $20s that affect all of the field while Pittman for majority of his career hasn’t, but I do think he’s better than the $18mill and below players.

 

but of course, that’s if he was being signed right now.  We don’t know what the tv deals and increased cap will garner him.  

 

Diontae Johnson is a good comp for play style and production. But I think he's an outlier. It's well below the value of every other notable WR contract over the last two years, he was a third round pick who signed a year early, and he only signed a two year extension. I didn't think his contract made sense at the time he signed it, it seemed like a hometown discount, and now I think he fleeced the Steelers.

 

We can't just disregard his contract because I think it's weird, but what makes him a better comp than Keenan Allen?

[MikeCurtis]

3 hours ago, Superman said:

 

 

 

But does that mean the Colts should move on from Pittman? That probably depends on his contract expectations, right?

Its interesting that Spotrac had re-sign number at 17M per year about 45 days ago

 

I checked today and Spotrac has moved that up to 20M

 

I absolutely want the guy...... as mentioned.... I see him as that "Reggie Wayne" guy playing opposite of Marvin Harrison. (We just dont yet have that dynamic WR1 on the roster)

 

In regards to Pittman, I'm thinking that they make the signing upfront signing bonus a little bigger, and let the deal average 19-21M over 4 years.

 

We will see

 

 

 

[Superman]

9 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

The problem with circumstance is that everyone has them. To me it’s not fair to single out Pittman as if he has had more unfortunate circumstances than any other receiver. It’s part of the game. I’ve have always been of the belief that elite players produce, regardless of circumstance.

 

Fair or not, it's true. Just using Diggs, since you mentioned him, over the last four years, is at 12.3 yards/catch. He has much more favorable circumstances than Pittman. Should we disregard that?

 

To the comment about elite players, it's kind of trite. But no matter, I don't think anyone is calling Pittman elite. Does that mean he shouldn't be re-signed? 

 

Quote

As for context, it does play a part but there has to be a track record. For example, when talking about low YPR, you know who else is ranked pretty low? Stefan Diggs. He’s ranked 57th with 11.7. Why does context matter with him? He’s got a proven track record of production where he’s far exceeded those numbers. Pittman has been in the league since 2020 and hasn’t ever eclipsed more than 12.6 YPR in a year. So rather than give context, it’s easier to say that this is probably the norm for him. 

 

So do you think that Pittman's ability in 2023 has diminished from his ability in 2021? If he could do 12.3 with Wentz, is he now incapable of doing 12.3 (or better) with a more capable QB? If you're saying 10.2 is Pittman's norm, I think that's selling him short, based on what he's previously shown.
 

Quote

Bad QB play can’t be the excuse every year. He’s on pace for 1,000 this year as he was in 2021, because he’s the go to target on the team. QBs will get their best receivers the ball (see Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins pre-Watson, etc…) regardless. And we just saw Minshew throw the ball deep to Pierce a couple times against the Titans so we can’t use Minshew as the context. Same in 2021 with Wentz. The bad QB had T.Y. Hilton at a 14.4 YPR and he only played 10 games. 

 

Why not? The Colts have had bad QB play basically all of Pittman's career. When we had better QB play, Pittman's yards/catch was notably better. And I don't think a couple of deep passes from Minshew undercuts more than half a season of him not targeting anyone down the field. 

 

Quote

So I think his production speaks to his ability and not circumstance. The only circumstance you can give him is his rookie year because he missed a bunch of games, and maybe last year because the QB play, Coaching, and O-line were some of the worst we’ve ever seen. But even still…Pierce averaged 14 YPR with the same circumstances last year, just saying.

 

Pierce was our #3 receiving option, and was almost exclusively targeted on deep throws. His average target distance was 11.4 yards; Pittman's was 6.9. Just because they had the same QB doesn't mean they had the same circumstances.

 

It seems like you've reduced Pittman down to one unfavorable stat, and are dismissing any contributing factors. 

[Defjamz26]

2 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

Who has more first downs?  Who moves the chains?  Every wr can't be Tyreek hill or chase.   I don't think anyone is comparing Pittman to those type of guys.   But comparing him to tank dell, nico, or hunter Renfrew is flawed.    Teams know he is the main target and he still get a ton of catches.  Pittman is a chain mover.  The Chiefs just won a Super Bowl without a wr better than Pittman.   Obviously they have Kelce,  but they would give us any wr on their roster for Pittman 

Every WR can’t be Hill or Chase for sure. I think everyone here agrees with that. That also means if that’s true, then every WR can not be paid like them either, and that’s the argument at hand. Pittman shouldn’t be paid like those guys. He should be paid closer to guys with his production. 
 

First downs aren’t an important stat for individual offensive players. Thats more of a team stat tbh. Plus first  downs aren’t counted when a player makes a big lay on 1st or 2nd down. For example, if Tyreek Hill catches a 70 yard TD on 2nd and 6, it doesn’t go down on the stat sheet as a 1st down.

 

How is comparing him to Collins, Renfrow, or Dell flawed? What metrics are you using to compare him to other receivers then? We can do size, draft class, or whatever Metric you want to use and see where the data leads.

[chad72]

1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

If you take out that one game where he got 75 YAC (as @Superman mentioned above) bringing his YAC/REC down to 3.2 he's at 56.

I’m sure it all evens out though. Lamb and Evans are below Pittman but they get more TDs, that’s the difference. I think if Pittman gets better in the red zone, he can go from the WR1.5 where I think he’s to WR1, IMO.

 

Plus, we all know Stroud is playing at a Pro Bowl level, throwing guys open. A big part of Nico Collins’ resurgence.

[Myles]

He is the #1 WR for the Colts but he's not really one of the best in the league.

His current ranks:

16 - YPG

14 - Yards

4 - receptions

35 - TD's

 

[Colt.45]

He's the Alpha on this team. He's had all kinds of QBs throw him the ball and still produces. Yeah he's a #1....he's not an alien like Hill or Jefferson but he's a #1

[Defjamz26]

41 minutes ago, Superman said:

Fair or not, it's true. Just using Diggs, since you mentioned him, over the last four years, is at 12.3 yards/catch. He has much more favorable circumstances than Pittman. Should we disregard that?

 

To the comment about elite players, it's kind of trite. But no matter, I don't think anyone is calling Pittman elite. Does that mean he shouldn't be re-signed? 

It shouldn’t be disregarded. However he’s also had 37 TDs in those last 4 years which is also something I mentioned with Pittman. So while the YPR hasn’t been ideal, he’s offering elite production with scoring to make up for that. I think Pittman should be re-signed just not for top 10 money. Even $20 million is a bit much for me. Especially when I think what he does is replaceable.

 

52 minutes ago, Superman said:

So do you think that Pittman's ability in 2023 has diminished from his ability in 2021? If he could do 12.3 with Wentz, is he now incapable of doing 12.3 (or better) with a more capable QB? If you're saying 10.2 is Pittman's norm, I think that's selling him short, based on what he's previously shown.

I don’t think his ability has diminished at all. I don’t think saying he can’t get significantly better than his current average is selling him short. Moreso, I think assuming he’s going to take a big leap in YPR with a full season with AR at the helm is overselling him.

There haven’t been enough flashes of big play ability for me to believe that. TBH I’d believe that to be true for Pierce before I’d believe it for Pittman.

1 hour ago, Superman said:

Pierce was our #3 receiving option, and was almost exclusively targeted on deep throws. His average target distance was 11.4 yards; Pittman's was 6.9. Just because they had the same QB doesn't mean they had the same circumstances.

 

It seems like you've reduced Pittman down to one unfavorable stat, and are dismissing any contributing factors. 

They are definitely used differently and that’s part of my point. Pierce is used the way he is because he does things that I don’t think Pittman can, but despite the bad QB play and being the 3rd option, still shows the averages you’d like to see for his role. Pittman is used the way he is because he does things that Pierce can’t. Ideally if Pitt was a legit WR1, he should be able to win in multiple ways.
 

A guy like Diggs (even in a down year) can win from the slot, outside, against press, from the Z, against some of the better corners in the league,etc… So I’m not reducing him to one stat. It’s really two: TDs and YPR. But IDK if it’s worth bringing other stats to the table if your counter is always going to be that Pittman has had bad QB play.

 

Which is wild to me because I can go back to D-Hop 2015 who had Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden and had 1,500+ yards and 11 TDs.

 

I’ll say this though in closing. For a number 2 possession receiver with “bad” QB play, I think he’s done pretty well. For a supposed Wide receiver 1 I think he’s fallen way short of the mark. I also think if the Colts had a shot getting MHJ or Nabers, no one would be making the case to re-sign Pitt even as the clear cut 2. Everyone would say “We can get Marvin or Nabers in the draft who is a legit WR1. Let Pitt walk and the trio of MHJ/Nabers, Downs, and Pierce can be lethal”

 

And that’s where I’m left at. So much of the “re-sign him” and “He’s the clear WR1” talk is circumstantial. 

[Dingus McGirt]

Mighty long discussion over something no one on this Forum has influence over.  

[richard pallo]

7 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

Mighty long discussion over something no one on this Forum has influence over.  

Similar to the JT discussion.  A lot of back and forth but no real influence.  A lot of people enjoy that kind of back and forth and that’s fine.  All I’m hoping for is that the final outcome turns out to be the right one for the team.

[Boondoggle]

12 hours ago, Superman said:

 

If I were a betting man, I'd lay money that the Colts will re-sign Pittman.

If I were a betting man I'd take you up on that.  Alas I must keep myself in accoutrements that enhance the potency of my loungewear.

 

This is a fantastic wideout draft.  MPJ is a good X but instead of paying him the smart call would be to slide Pierce into that role and draft a young stud with some juice to favorably alter the complexion of this pass game's ability to stretch the field.  Consider how much that element would be magnified with the return of a QB who can spin it like AR can.  

[smittywerb]

12 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Diontae Johnson is a good comp for play style and production. But I think he's an outlier. It's well below the value of every other notable WR contract over the last two years, he was a third round pick who signed a year early, and he only signed a two year extension. I didn't think his contract made sense at the time he signed it, it seemed like a hometown discount, and now I think he fleeced the Steelers.

 

We can't just disregard his contract because I think it's weird, but what makes him a better comp than Keenan Allen?

agreed on diontae.  
 

as far as Keenan, feel like Keenan does more.  Not saying MPJ can’t do what Keenan does, but doesn’t.  As far as going deeper.  I wouldn’t mind giving MPJ $20mill either.  But as I stated above, I would offer him $22mill because that’s what I think he’s going to get.  

[DougDew]

15 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

So Marvin wasn't a number 1 wr in your definition 

Over the top speed.  Route running agility to use as a chain mover.  Great hands.  Not necessarily a contested catch guy.  I thought that would describe Marvin.

 

Its as if you read things through a hate lens with certain posters that you can't see what's being said and are being blinded by your desire to criticize.   Its the only way to see that what I said did not fit Marvin.

[Solid84]

12 hours ago, chad72 said:

I’m sure it all evens out though. Lamb and Evans are below Pittman but they get more TDs, that’s the difference. I think if Pittman gets better in the red zone, he can go from the WR1.5 where I think he’s to WR1, IMO.

 

Plus, we all know Stroud is playing at a Pro Bowl level, throwing guys open. A big part of Nico Collins’ resurgence.

It's not just about red zone play, though, even if he would be even better if he improved in that area.

 

Pittman is 6'4" 223lbs, but he doesn't play like a big guy. He should be able to run through or shake off smaller defenders, but he just doesn't. Some of that is likely QB play. Better ball placement would allow him to run with momentum and hopefully improve there as well.

 

He forced 5 missed tackles last year, 9 with Wentz and 6 with Rivers, but with Rivers he only had half the targets/receptions he has now - so around 12 if we normalize to his current targets/receptions. That's a lot better.

[DougDew]

15 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think there are even a dozen receivers in the league that fully fit your very lofty definition of a #1 WR. 

 

Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, AJ Brown (maybe, I think the speed element is questionable), DeVonta Smith (and this is ironic because I think AJ Brown is the better player), JaMarr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams (speed probably questionable at this point, but his past production speaks for itself), DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel... maybe on Calvin Ridley, Zay Flowers... And there's some variance in production and efficiency among this group.

 

And then there are really good, high producing players like Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Brandon Aiyuk, Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, etc., who don't fit your description, but can/have been the best receiver on good playoff teams.

 

So I don't know if your description is one that relates well to the discussion. It seems overly restrictive. And using that description, if you have a highly productive WR who doesn't command a perpetual double team and can't blow the top off the defense every play, then he doesn't qualify at a WR1. Independent of MPJ, what does that mean for your opinion of the market value for this kind of player?

That's about right.  And that's the proper definition, IMO.

 

Just like RB production (talent)....WR production (talent) in the NFL is largely replaceable (at a higher price than a RB though).....with the typical exception of about 15 guys.   And a team does not want to lose one of those guys.  The other guys can be replaced.

 

I don't get into prices of contracts, but I think Pittman's talent is fairly replaceable and it's not really at a level that you have great concern over losing.  I know personalities and "horse shoe guy" stuff plays into it to.  That doesn't mean he won't be resigned and at a good price, because there are other guys out there who would command the same price for their talent, so it would be a push...so why not just sign the homer guy and then tout him as being the best guy available...LOL. 

 

 But if fans want the Colts to be a perennial playoff/division contender (against good teams) there needs to be a true over the top WR to complement Pitt....and it can't just be a Johnny-one-note deep guy on the outside...that guy also has to be a threat to move the chains. 

 

Deep speed, agility as a route runner, great hands....those guys are hard to find...but they are usually found on the playoff teams.

 

JMO.

 

Edit:  Yes, about 12 to 18 guys that are #1s.  Every other WR in the NFL is a #2 at best.  And then there are the elite/weird slot guys that are special...Like a Julian Edelmen..or maybe even a great Move TE....that don't really fit a label.

[jvan1973]

40 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Over the top speed.  Route running agility to use as a chain mover.  Great hands.  Not necessarily a contested catch guy.  I thought that would describe Marvin.

 

Its as if you read things through a hate lens with certain posters that you can't see what's being said and are being blinded by your desire to criticize.   Its the only way to see that what I said did not fit Marvin.

Marvin lined up on the right side almost exclusively.   He didn't line up all over the place

[DougDew]

1 minute ago, jvan1973 said:

Marvin lined up on the right side almost exclusively.   He didn't line up all over the place

That had to do more with circumstance of PM and the offense, IMO.  His talent allowed him to line up anywhere.   

 

Out of my entire description you pick out one half of one sentence to pick on?  That seems to be patrolling for a criticism.

[richard pallo]

9 hours ago, Boondoggle said:

If I were a betting man I'd take you up on that.  Alas I must keep myself in accoutrements that enhance the potency of my loungewear.

 

This is a fantastic wideout draft.  MPJ is a good X but instead of paying him the smart call would be to slide Pierce into that role and draft a young stud with some juice to favorably alter the complexion of this pass game's ability to stretch the field.  Consider how much that element would be magnified with the return of a QB who can spin it like AR can.  

I think you would lose that bet actually.  MPJ is a very good proven NFL receiver who was forced to play with a different quarterback every year he has played.  It might be a great draft for wideouts but that doesn’t guarantee Ballard hits on the pick.  Some posters here are even questioning Pierce as being a good pick.  I think Pierce and Downs have an excellent chance to be very good receivers in the league.  AR would help their game and Pittman’s as well.  Ballard did hit on the Pittman pick.  I really don’t think he’s going to let him leave unless his demands are over the top which I don’t think they will be.  I think Pittman wants to stay and I think they get the extension done.   No reason why Pierce couldn’t slide into a bigger role anyway if he shows out.  Harrison and Wayne both got paid.  We’ve done it before.

[Superman]

15 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

It shouldn’t be disregarded. However he’s also had 37 TDs in those last 4 years which is also something I mentioned with Pittman. So while the YPR hasn’t been ideal, he’s offering elite production with scoring to make up for that. I think Pittman should be re-signed just not for top 10 money. Even $20 million is a bit much for me. Especially when I think what he does is replaceable.

 

I don’t think his ability has diminished at all. I don’t think saying he can’t get significantly better than his current average is selling him short. Moreso, I think assuming he’s going to take a big leap in YPR with a full season with AR at the helm is overselling him.

There haven’t been enough flashes of big play ability for me to believe that. TBH I’d believe that to be true for Pierce before I’d believe it for Pittman.

They are definitely used differently and that’s part of my point. Pierce is used the way he is because he does things that I don’t think Pittman can, but despite the bad QB play and being the 3rd option, still shows the averages you’d like to see for his role. Pittman is used the way he is because he does things that Pierce can’t. Ideally if Pitt was a legit WR1, he should be able to win in multiple ways.
 

A guy like Diggs (even in a down year) can win from the slot, outside, against press, from the Z, against some of the better corners in the league,etc… So I’m not reducing him to one stat. It’s really two: TDs and YPR. But IDK if it’s worth bringing other stats to the table if your counter is always going to be that Pittman has had bad QB play.

 

Which is wild to me because I can go back to D-Hop 2015 who had Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden and had 1,500+ yards and 11 TDs.

 

I’ll say this though in closing. For a number 2 possession receiver with “bad” QB play, I think he’s done pretty well. For a supposed Wide receiver 1 I think he’s fallen way short of the mark. I also think if the Colts had a shot getting MHJ or Nabers, no one would be making the case to re-sign Pitt even as the clear cut 2. Everyone would say “We can get Marvin or Nabers in the draft who is a legit WR1. Let Pitt walk and the trio of MHJ/Nabers, Downs, and Pierce can be lethal”

 

And that’s where I’m left at. So much of the “re-sign him” and “He’s the clear WR1” talk is circumstantial. 

 

Good post, I think we understand each other, even if we don't agree on every element.

 

But this speaks to my earlier point. Deciding what Pittman is and who he should be compared to is the key to evaluating his market. We're talking about Diggs because of a statistical similarity, but no one believes that's a realistic comp. "D-Hop produced with bad QBs" because he was on another stratosphere as a player, and no one is making that comparison, either. In the same way, I think the Renfrow comp is way off.

 

So what is he, and then, how should he be valued? Is he a guy who can only give us 10 yards/catch, or is that more a product of the circumstance? (I don't predict a huge jump in his YPR with Richardson, but I do think this stat has been limited by his usage, not by his ability.)

 

And to be clear, I'm not pushing for him to be re-signed. I'm predicting he will be re-signed for a variety of factors, and that people are underestimating his market value. But I said before the season that if a team made a strong trade offer I'd be open to it. I don't think Pittman is the kind of player that should be our lead WR if we want to have a dynamic passing attack, but there is a role for him in a dynamic passing attack, even if we had a more prolific guy on the team.

[NewColtsFan]

On 12/6/2023 at 10:07 AM, Defjamz26 said:

Never said I hated Pittman. Read my responses in the entire thread. I thinks he’s good. Just not a true number 1, which is what you said as well.

 

As for the Renfrow thing, their career Yard per reception is almost identical. Renfrow is at 10.7 while Pittman is 10.8. Renfrow also has 2 more TDs at 17 for his career. Career yardage is close to and Renfrow missed 7 games last year and 10 in his career. I’m not comparing skill set, I’m comparing production. 
 

Everyone is praising him coming off of his 100 yard game against the Titans. But look at the stats:

 

11 catches for 105 yards which was an average of only 9.5 yards. For comparison, Jamar Chase also caught 11 passes in the Monday night game. He did it for 149 yards with a 13.5 YPC. It’s not hate, it’s just an observation of facts. Pittman does not have numbers that support the notion of him being a WR1. 

Two points….

 

While you’ve never literally said the words “I hate Michael Pittman Jr” here’s what you have said recently that gives me that impression. 
 

A few weeks back you wrote…  “Michael Pittman Jr is WR3 at best”.   Those were your words.    That was jaw dropping.  
 

Then this week you noted….  “OK, so he showed up”.    
 

I went to Pittman’s page here on this website free to all.   And here is his 2023 production so far. 
 

Receptions by game:  8, 8, 9, 1, 5, 9, 2, 8, 8, 8, 8, 10, 11.    Roughly on pace for 120 receptions. 
 

The numbers say Pittman has pretty much been showing up all season long.   9 of his 12 games (75%) are top level.  1 is below average, 2 are bad, no debate. 
 

So those are the comments you’ve made that make me question your view.   Now I’ve been reading the comments you’ve made in the last 16-18 hours and you seem to have some change of heart.  Now you’re calling him a high level WR2.   Fine.  
But that’s different than the view you’ve been putting out for the majority of the season. 
 

[stitches]

Meh, to me this whole argument is largely pointless. About as pointless as it was when people were arguing about whether TY Hilton was a 1 or not and how he can be a 1 if he's playing from the slot predominantly... 

 

(for the record - IMO, no, neither Pittman, nor Hilton are/were traditional no. 1/X receiver).  

 

It's just immaterial to the larger questions we need to answer.

 

Is MPJ a good receiver who provides value commensurate with the expected pay he's going to receive? If yes - he's young enough for us to expect for him to keep up this production over the length of his next contract... If no - can we expect him to improve to a point where he's worth the money? And can we replace that production for cheaper so we can use the money more effectively elsewhere? 

 

How does he fit in our receiving core? Does he have a well defined role that is valuable and hard to replace at lower salary? 

 

Is this receiving core good enough with Pittman as the main guy? To me the answer to this is no. BUT... that doesn't mean that we need to let him go because he wants to get paid. It means we need to add talent, not lose some of the best talent we have. 

 

[Mitch Connors]

20 hours ago, Solid84 said:

WRs only. At least 40 targets.

 

Rank -- player -- targets -- YAC/REC

27 -- Mike Evans -- 99 -- 4.4

 

  

That is a shock. I would have bet big money that he'd be in the top 5.

 

Thanks for pulling this together and posting it. 

[chad72]

21 minutes ago, Mitch Connors said:

That is a shock. I would have bet big money that he'd be in the top 5.

 

Thanks for pulling this together and posting it. 

 

Evans is that massive target you can find where defenders are always around, never the "run away from you" type of guy. If the QB leads him well, it is hard to get an INT for a ball within his catch radius. What surprised me more is CeeDee Lamb, who has more ability than Evans to run away from folks hovering right around Evans.

 

It is also a product of QBs that throw to these guys treating them as big TD/end zone/jump ball targets that get open but more often throw it up for them to come down with it and that doesn't offer many opportunities for YAC as opposed to hitting them in stride. How a WR is used matters for YAC big time.

[Boondoggle]

3 hours ago, richard pallo said:

I think you would lose that bet actually.  MPJ is a very good proven NFL receiver who was forced to play with a different quarterback every year he has played.  It might be a great draft for wideouts but that doesn’t guarantee Ballard hits on the pick.  Some posters here are even questioning Pierce as being a good pick.  I think Pierce and Downs have an excellent chance to be very good receivers in the league.  AR would help their game and Pittman’s as well.  Ballard did hit on the Pittman pick.  I really don’t think he’s going to let him leave unless his demands are over the top which I don’t think they will be.  I think Pittman wants to stay and I think they get the extension done.   No reason why Pierce couldn’t slide into a bigger role anyway if he shows out.  Harrison and Wayne both got paid.  We’ve done it before.

Pierce is a lot like Pittman.  Ballard has a type.  He values big target wideouts.

 

But when you're stacking a wideout group the fact you have a younger guy who can slide into Pittman's role and realize that cap savings is something that needs to be considered.  And when it pairs with a real need to upgrade the ability of that group to stretch the field for a QB who has an epic arm, that plays even more into that equation.

 

I respect Pittman's game.  He's a quality wideout.  But it's not about retaining the guy you drafted, it is about cap efficiency vs your ability to use supply/demand to field the best team possible.  If Pittman was a little more of a threat to beat teams deep then he'd be Evans and I'd pay him.  But I think he's a cut below that.  He is in that range where it's a tough decision but where the Colts will be drafting there are going to be some really nice offensive pieces in the pass game to choose from in round 1.  Really good chance wideout is the best player on the board for them in round 1 and a young stud who can grow with AR is the better path I think.

 

If they pay Pittman I will cross my fingers and hope they get their value out of him.  But I don't think that will happen.  I think paying him will be a mistake in terms of the return the team will get vs spending that FA money on a different position group.