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Colts have 4th pick (Official Discussion Thread)


danlhart87

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1 minute ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

    Playing against a pro style defense he looked awful. His arm strength reminded me of Ryan now. You want him you take him.

 Based on this tape, if he played for Iowa State would we have ever heard of him?

  Prove me wrong young man.

I'm trying to be as unbiased as possible. I'm not as high on Young as the other two. We've seen his highlights, so I wanted to see what it's like when he struggles. Against an NFL defense with the world's top athletes, he could struggle. 

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11 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Hey, even Andrew Luck threw INTs but also made game changing plays to win us games. But then, we were at the No.1 pick and didn't have to sweat about working trades till the 3rd round when Arians vouched hard for T Y Hilton we traded up for. For all his hype, Andrew Luck didn't ever give us a Top 2 seed in the AFC, nor did we beat Brady and the Patriots in 6 tries, neither did Peyton in his first 6 tries, if I remember right. Peyton didn't go to a SB till year 9. Then when Elway signed all those FAs in Denver, Peyton went to as many SBs in 4 years as he went to as a Colt.

 

Bottom line, there is NO such thing as a perfect prospect. If you think you can win a lot of games with that QB and mold him into your franchise QB, you have to take the chance and provide plenty of support, with draft picks and/or FA. 

And if they think there is a guy that they can mold their franchise around, and he is the only one, then yes pull the trigger for the number 1. There might not be that guy in this draft in their eyes though. We don't know what Ballard and team is thinking. They might not see much of a difference between a few QBs, and in that instance I say stay put at 4. 

 

If they think Levis (just an example) is the guy that they can train up, be the leader of the offense, and take us the distance and he is the only one. Then please make sure you take him and do whatever it takes to get him. They might not see a guy like that though. If they don't see one that's head over heels better or that any of them can definitely take us the distance then just stay at 4 and take BPA.

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15 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

    Playing against a pro style defense he looked awful. His arm strength reminded me of Ryan now. You want him you take him.

 Based on this tape, if he played for Iowa State would we have ever heard of him?

  Prove me wrong young man.

 

If the Colts move up, I feel it is for C J Stroud

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2 hours ago, Patrick Miller said:

So how mad would everyone be if we sign jimmy g on a one year deal….trade back…pick up some more picks and take Anthony Richardson later in round one?

 

  That would mean you wanted to win now and while bringing along a well thought of prospect. Sounds Irsay/Ballard like.

 It would likely happen with drafting R first then adding the Vet JG later.

 Not mad.

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4 minutes ago, KB said:

And if they think there is a guy that they can mold their franchise around, and he is the only one, then yes pull the trigger for the number 1. There might not be that guy in this draft in their eyes though. We don't know what Ballard and team is thinking. They might not see much of a difference between a few QBs, and in that instance I say stay put at 4. 

 

If they think Levis (just an example) is the guy that they can train up, be the leader of the offense, and take us the distance and he is the only one. Then please make sure you take him and do whatever it takes to get him. They might not see a guy like that though. If they don't see one that's head over heels better or that any of them can definitely take us the distance then just stay at 4 and take BPA.

 

If they feel Stroud is better than Levis or Richardson, then yeah, they will move up. Like I said before, you can "work around" any QB's limitations and there are no perfect prospects. So, you balance it with the upside you will gain from the move up and if it still allows you to build a competitive roster, you do it. For all the mortgaging of draft picks for FAs the Rams did, do you think fans would complain for a few years of mediocrity if you land that SB win? I wouldn't. That is the thing with draft picks, they will reset after a few years after trades.

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2 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t really feel that way at all. If there is one that you feel you have to have over the others go get them at one. Of course if none of them separate themselves from each other stay where your at. Intel is important too. If you have inside info yo know who might take who. One future first isn’t going to kill your team when you expect a young QB to take time anyway. If there is a guy you think can be the franchise then go get them.

 

2 hours ago, chad72 said:

How many teams have truly had a chance to trade up to No.1? Most of them would not have given up that opportunity to draft their QB - Colts, Cardinals, Bengals, Browns included. A lot of those got offers and rejected them because they were set on getting their guy.

 

Bears being at No.1 gives us a rare opportunity. At the top, you and I would prefer C J Stroud over Bryce Young, 100%. Probably Ballard too. Plus the odds of us being at No.4 again is also low. Moving to a Top 2 slot from 6-10 would probably require more than being at No.4, goes without saying, and that is where we would end up in the future if we had another stink of a season like this one. 

 

Can you win with another QB? Probably yes. Any team can in a team sport. However, if you feel the QB at No.1 would give you a better floor and as good a ceiling than the QB at No.4, you have to take the shot when you are close enough. The thing about draft picks, you get a new set of picks every year and can make up for lost draft equity or can manufacture them in future trades, unlike dead cap space if being aggressive in FA strikes out. I would rather them be aggressive in the draft than FA.

Let me ask this.  Is there a difference in the expectations/risks of taking Luck #1 and Mayfield #1?    No team who needs a QB is going to trade out of a generational type of talent, but would Cleveland have traded up for Mayfield if they were not already at #1? (Maybe they did trade up?)  They took him there because the had already had the pick, IMO, and he was there favorite.  NYJ traded up to #3 to get "one of" the QBs.   Both QBs turned out to be sort of the same guy.  In the Burrow draft, nobody traded up to take Tua or Herbert.  Is Stroud or Levis worth trading up for?......How much you need them to be an elite QB should not be part of the calculus, IMO.

 

If CHI wants a ransom just because a team likes its Mayfield a little better than its Darnold, I tell them to take a hike.  (If it was a Luck or a Lawrence, I would try to move earth...to no avail probably).

 

So is there that much difference in Stroud vs Levis?   I don't know, but to me that is the question that needs to be answered before I support a big capital outlay for a trade up for a QB who is just my favorite of the bunch.

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1 hour ago, coming on strong said:

 

 

1 hour ago, RollerColt said:

 

Young vs. LSU. Every throw and run for those interested. 

 

 

I do like seeing the highlight videos but i wish someone put out lowlight videos too.

 

I'm looking forward to seeing the tape of these players by that QBschool guy on youtube this year.

 

https://www.youtube.com/@TheQBSchool/videos

 

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2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 

Let me ask this.  Is there a difference in the expectations/risks of taking Luck #1 and Mayfield #1?    No team who needs a QB is going to trade out of a generational type of talent, but would Cleveland have traded up for Mayfield if they were not already at #1?   They took him there because the had already had the pick, IMO, and he was there favorite.  NYJ traded up to #3 to get "one of" the QBs.   Both QBs turned out to be sort of the same guy.  In the Burrow draft, nobody traded up to take Tua or Herbert.  Is Stroud or Levis worth trading up for?......How much you want them to be good should not be in the calculus, IMO.

 

If CHI wants a ransom just because a team likes its Mayfield a little better than its Darnold, I tell them to take a hike.  (If it was a Luck or a Lawrence, I would try to move earth...to no avail probably).

 

So is there that much difference in Stroud vs Levis?   I don't know, but to me that is the question that needs to be asked before I support a big capital outlay for a trade up for a QB who is just my favorite of the bunch.

I don’t think just because the QB aren’t  are not generational you don’t trade up.  The question should be  can they be the franchise QB and help you win the SB. It does not take a generational QB to win a SB.

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3 minutes ago, DougDew said:

 

 

If CHI wants a ransom just because a team likes its Mayfield a little better than its Darnold, I tell them to take a hike.  (If it was a Luck or a Lawrence, I would try to move earth...to no avail probably).

 

So is there that much difference in Stroud vs Levis?   I don't know, but to me that is the question that needs to be answered before I support a big capital outlay for a trade up for a QB who is just my favorite of the bunch.

 

These two will determine if there is a trade or not. Stroud has shown better processing than Levis in his 2 years of starting so far with his turnovers, so I would lean Stroud there. Trade ransom, like you suggested, is the only thing stopping Ballard moving up to No.1, if Bears expect something unreasonable. Because Stroud declared, I feel the Bears proposal might be reasonable because suddenly, you have the Top 3 QBs plus a project in Richardson versus the Top 2 QBs plus a project in Richardson.

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41 minutes ago, Two_pound said:

Another incredible trait of Stroud is how often he "found" the open receiver on so many throws these past two seasons. His football i.q. must be off the charts as well as his physical abilities.

He looked like the real deal in that bowl game.

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19 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

 

 

 

I do like seeing the highlight videos but i wish someone put out lowlight videos too.

 

I'm looking forward to seeing the tape of these players by that QBschool guy on youtube this year.

 

https://www.youtube.com/@TheQBSchool/videos

 

I really like JT's channel as well. 

 

 

He evaluated that same LSU game. 

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2 hours ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t know why everyone is so against moving up. If a player you want is good enough to take a four that means you believe he can be the franchise. So why rams the risk of losing the player you want.

Because you’re not just giving up a number 4 for him. You’re giving up MULTIPLE first round draft picks, or starting players for a question mark

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20 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t think just because the QB aren’t  are not generational you don’t trade up.  The question should be  can they be the franchise QB and help you win the SB. It does not take a generational QB to win a SB.

But you’re only looking at this year. What about the next 2-3 years worth of talent we will have missed on? And what is Stroud busts, which odds are he will,  then you have no recourse 

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2 minutes ago, csmopar said:

But you’re only looking at this year. What about the next 2-3 years worth of talent we will have missed on? And what is Stroud busts, which odds are he will,  then you have no recourse 

It’s not that hard to move on if they aren’t showing  anything by the third year. It’s not like you are giving up 4 first round picks. The lost draft picks have to be supplemented in FA. 

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28 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t think just because the QB aren’t  are not generational you don’t trade up.  The question should be  can they be the franchise QB and help you win the SB. It does not take a generational QB to win a SB.

IMO, then only one of them can be viewed as being the franchise QB and the others fall short of that.  If its just a matter of which one of the three franchise QBs are better than the others, but they are all still franchise, then the trade up doesn't make sense to me.

 

I think Burrow, Tua, and Herbert were considered franchise....its why they are top 6....but no team traded slots for them.

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2 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

If Stroud or Levi’s turns out to be Daniel Jones, are you guys ok with that? 

Heck yeah I'd be okay with that. I was down on him, even during this season. But he's now got a playoff win under his belt. He's obviously doing something right. 

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1 minute ago, RollerColt said:

Heck yeah I'd be okay with that. I was down on him, even during this season. But he's now got a playoff win under his belt. He's obviously doing something right. 

Took Jones a few years to get on track though due to having right OC. I want someone better then him.

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1 minute ago, RollerColt said:

Heck yeah I'd be okay with that. I was down on him, even during this season. But he's now got a playoff win under his belt. He's obviously doing something right. 

I think with proper coaching that’s what we’re looking at, a Daniel jones type of QB. I’m good with it also but we must get the coach correct. Both are talented QB’s but will need some good coaching and scheme. 

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34 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t think just because the QB aren’t  are not generational you don’t trade up.  The question should be  can they be the franchise QB and help you win the SB. It does not take a generational QB to win a SB.

Let me ask you this.  And try to resist using hindsight to answer.

 

If instead the QBs being Stroud, Young, and Levis.......the QBs coming out of college are Burrow, Tua, and Herbert, would you trade up from 4 to 1 to pick your favorite?

 

Remember at the time, each one carried a material risk factor...Burrow was a one-year wonder who benefited from great receivers and he was a bit slight of frame.  Tua had the injury tag and not the strongest arm.  Herbert had some mental/ interest/ desire issue.  Are each or any of those issues more severe risk factors than what Stroud, Young, or Levis carry with them?

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15 minutes ago, boo2202 said:

If Stroud or Levi’s turns out to be Daniel Jones, are you guys ok with that? 

Do you mean getting them by meeting CHI price for #1?   No

 

Standing pat and drafting?  Yes.

 

I think Jones is a good QB, but he is being coached to his strengths more than some of the other QBs taken high.

 

If any of the QBs turn out to be less than Jones I'd have hoped we took Will Anderson or traded down and gotten a 2024 first to try again at the QB.

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1 hour ago, DougDew said:

 

Let me ask this.  Is there a difference in the expectations/risks of taking Luck #1 and Mayfield #1?    No team who needs a QB is going to trade out of a generational type of talent, but would Cleveland have traded up for Mayfield if they were not already at #1? (Maybe they did trade up?)  They took him there because the had already had the pick, IMO, and he was there favorite.  NYJ traded up to #3 to get "one of" the QBs.   Both QBs turned out to be sort of the same guy.  In the Burrow draft, nobody traded up to take Tua or Herbert.  Is Stroud or Levis worth trading up for?......How much you need them to be an elite QB should not be part of the calculus, IMO.

 

If CHI wants a ransom just because a team likes its Mayfield a little better than its Darnold, I tell them to take a hike.  (If it was a Luck or a Lawrence, I would try to move earth...to no avail probably).

 

So is there that much difference in Stroud vs Levis?   I don't know, but to me that is the question that needs to be answered before I support a big capital outlay for a trade up for a QB who is just my favorite of the bunch.

 

Chi gave up a ton to trade up to I believe 2 for Mitchell Trubisky and it was speculated that they could have likely drafted at whatever slot they had.


They believed in the guy and were really, really wrong and it's largely why they got into the situation they are in.   They believed in the guy and not only missed badly with him but also couldn't restock with what they traded away in draft capital.  I really think they should trade down and get a haul if they are comfortable with Fields.  I like Fields, but I know they could trade him for a haul even if they wanted to go QB first. 

 

So the bottom line for me on this is, you better be right when you trade up.  KC was with Mahomes.  SF if they don't win this season, will rue the trade up for Love (Edit: not Love, the dude they got) unless he comes out strong next year.  There has been some rumour they are looking elsewhere for QB next year.  They have a very fortunate situation right now, but the bill is going to be coming due soon, and if they don't win this year, they might have screwed over themselves for the future. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Chi gave up a ton to trade up to I believe 2 for Mitchell Trubisky and it was speculated that they could have likely drafted at whatever slot they had.


They believed in the guy and were really, really wrong and it's largely why they got into the situation they are in.   They believed in the guy and not only missed badly with him but also couldn't restock with what they traded away in draft capital.  I really think they should trade down and get a haul if they are comfortable with Fields.  I like Fields, but I know they could trade him for a haul even if they wanted to go QB first. 

 

So the bottom line for me on this is, you better be right when you trade up.  KC was with Mahomes.  SF if they don't win this season, will rue the trade up for Love unless he comes out strong next year.  There has been some rumour they are looking elsewhere for QB next year.  They have a very fortunate situation right now, but the bill is going to be coming due soon, and if they don't win this year, they might have screwed over themselves for the future. 

 

 

Let me ask you what I asked Chloe.

 

Try to resist using hindsight to answer.

 

If instead the QBs being Stroud, Young, and Levis.......the QBs coming out of college are Burrow, Tua, and Herbert, would you trade up from 4 to 1 to pick your favorite?

 

Remember at the time, each one carried a material risk factor...Burrow was a one-year wonder who benefited from great receivers and he was a bit slight of frame.  Tua had the injury tag and not the strongest arm.  Herbert had some mental/ interest/ desire issue.  Are each or any of those issues more severe risk factors than what Stroud, Young, or Levis carry with them?

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16 minutes ago, Nickster said:

 

Chi gave up a ton to trade up to I believe 2 for Mitchell Trubisky and it was speculated that they could have likely drafted at whatever slot they had.


They believed in the guy and were really, really wrong and it's largely why they got into the situation they are in.   They believed in the guy and not only missed badly with him but also couldn't restock with what they traded away in draft capital.  I really think they should trade down and get a haul if they are comfortable with Fields.  I like Fields, but I know they could trade him for a haul even if they wanted to go QB first. 

 

So the bottom line for me on this is, you better be right when you trade up.  KC was with Mahomes.  SF if they don't win this season, will rue the trade up for Lance unless he comes out strong next year.  There has been some rumour they are looking elsewhere for QB next year.  They have a very fortunate situation right now, but the bill is going to be coming due soon, and if they don't win this year, they might have screwed over themselves for the future. 

 

 

 

Lance is probably what you meant. SF continues to be active though. They traded a 2, 3 and 4 for CMC. They have drafted well for DL talent and they have invested in OL and pass catchers with a great play caller in Shanahan. 

 

If Lance doesn't work out, they move on to the next QB that elevates the guys around him. That is the thing with draft picks, you will eventually get enough of them back. The true question becomes, when do you give up on the QB you drafted to move on? NYG did not with Daniel Jones and earned the rewards. Matt Nagy wasn't all that, we are finding out, right? Shanahan is making Purdy look great.

 

Rams gave up all those draft picks for FAs and all they got was a SB to show for it.  :) It depends on where your team is at, to consider the risk vs reward, ultimately. Rams had the pieces, they needed the extra oomph and got it with Stafford. We thought they gave up too much but if that gets you a SB with a few years of mediocrity and then back into contention again, is it worth it? I would think so.

 

Plus, it also depends on what the team picking No.1 is asking for. If the Bears ask for a future No.1 and our current No.2, it would be hard for me to give up both. I would give the future No.1, and throw in a Day 3 pick and try to make the trade.

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I’m of the opine that we stay at 4 and draft whomever drops to us! 
 

Someone will pay a king’s ransom to trade up to number one and we shouldn’t get in their way…..

 

Stroud

 

Levis

 

Richardson

 

They all have their warts but all could be good starters in the league 

 

Then there is Hendon Hooker who will fall due to injury that is every bit as good as the others.

 

 I will ultimately support the Colts decision (until I don’t) in the draft and am excited to see how it all plays out

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16 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Let me ask you what I asked Chloe.

 

Try to resist using hindsight to answer.

 

If instead the QBs being Stroud, Young, and Levis.......the QBs coming out of college are Burrow, Tua, and Herbert, would you trade up from 4 to 1 to pick your favorite?

 

Remember at the time, each one carried a material risk factor...Burrow was a one-year wonder who benefited from great receivers and he was a bit slight of frame.  Tua had the injury tag and not the strongest arm.  Herbert had some mental/ interest/ desire issue.  Are each or any of those issues more severe risk factors than what Stroud, Young, or Levis carry with them?

 

Well Doug.  I can tell you I don't even try to rate CFB QBs anymore.  It's not something I've been good at, and frankly I don't know if anyone really is.  Did KC REALLY know Mahomes was going to be this good?  Maybe.  But teams more often than not pick the wrong guy or spend too much.  Plus I watch very little CFB.

 

SO I can't really answer that question because I didn't consider them in the 1st place, if that makes sense.  I can tell you I had doubts about Burrow because of the fairly limited college career and I didn't think Tua was going to be good at all.


I really like Tua now. Very accurate.  Unfortunatly, he keeps getting his head pounded awkwardly.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, DougDew said:

IMO, then only one of them can be viewed as being the franchise QB and the others fall short of that.  If its just a matter of which one of the three franchise QBs are better than the others, but they are all still franchise, then the trade up doesn't make sense to me.

 

I think Burrow, Tua, and Herbert were considered franchise....its why they are top 6....but no team traded slots for them.

I don’t think that is the case. Teams can view these QB different. What Ballard thinks is important may not be what Texans do.

 

That draft is kind of a bad comparison. There really wasn’t anywhere go move up because all the teams were bunched  into the top 6 and all needed QB. 

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31 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Let me ask you what I asked Chloe.

 

Try to resist using hindsight to answer.

 

If instead the QBs being Stroud, Young, and Levis.......the QBs coming out of college are Burrow, Tua, and Herbert, would you trade up from 4 to 1 to pick your favorite?

 

Remember at the time, each one carried a material risk factor...Burrow was a one-year wonder who benefited from great receivers and he was a bit slight of frame.  Tua had the injury tag and not the strongest arm.  Herbert had some mental/ interest/ desire issue.  Are each or any of those issues more severe risk factors than what Stroud, Young, or Levis carry with them?

I’d sit Pat and let whichever one fall to me, not using hindsight.  Using Hindsight, I’d trade a bit to get either Herbert or Burrow. 

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Maybe I’m biased, but I think Bryce Young would be worth trading up for. I wouldn’t give up two 1s and two 2s, or any type of king’s ransom. Of course, I wouldn’t give that up for a Luck or Lawrence, either. 
 

Other than Bryce being a little bit on the skinny side, I’m not sure what flaw anyone is seeing in his game. Great awareness and escapability in the pocket, decent enough arm strength, pinpoint accuracy, tremendous leader, and certainly has that “it factor.” Go back and watch him again in that final drive in regulation vs Auburn in 2021 or the final drive in the 2022 Texas game. He’s without question the best QB Alabama has had in the Saban era, and that includes guys like Tua and Mac Jones. 
 

I understand the fear that he had so much production because of the quality of talent around him; and, that is certainly true for his 2021 season (eye popping numbers). However, this season he played with a bad (by Alabama standards) receiving core and OL. His best weapon, by far, was running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Despite this, he still put up very good numbers and only lost 2 games. In those 2 losses, Bama was out scored 84-80. So, not really his fault. 

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15 minutes ago, Restinpeacesweetchloe said:

I don’t think that is the case. Teams can view these QB different. What Ballard thinks is important may not be what Texans do.

 

That draft is kind of a bad comparison. There really wasn’t anywhere go move up because all the teams were bunched  into the top 6 and all needed QB. 

 

Plus the hypothetical question ignores the fact that the No.1 pick was never easily made available for a trade by a team holding it, that did not require a QB. It has happened before with Texans and Clowney in 2014 and Browns with Myles Garrett in 2017,.

 

The last 8 drafts, 6 QBs and 2 pass rushers. 2015 (Winston), 2016 (Goff), 2018 (Mayfield), 2019 (Murray), 2020 (Burrow), 2021 (Lawrence) and soon 2022 No.1 pick being a QB is the trend. Bad teams typically are bad due to bad QB play. It is a QB driven league.

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16 minutes ago, C_Lew said:

Maybe I’m biased, but I think Bryce Young would be worth trading up for. I wouldn’t give up two 1s and two 2s, or any type of king’s ransom. Of course, I wouldn’t give that up for a Luck or Lawrence, either. 
 

Other than Bryce being a little bit on the skinny side, I’m not sure what flaw anyone is seeing in his game. Great awareness and escapability in the pocket, decent enough arm strength, pinpoint accuracy, tremendous leader, and certainly has that “it factor.” Go back and watch him again in that final drive in regulation vs Auburn in 2021 or the final drive in the 2022 Texas game. He’s without question the best QB Alabama has had in the Saban era, and that includes guys like Tua and Mac Jones. 
 

I understand the fear that he had so much production because of the quality of talent around him; and, that is certainly true for his 2021 season (eye popping numbers). However, this season he played with a bad (by Alabama standards) receiving core and OL. His best weapon, by far, was running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Despite this, he still put up very good numbers and only lost 2 games. In those 2 losses, Bama was out scored 84-80. So, not really his fault. 

 

Kyler Murray and Tua's injury history has scared fans and GMs (possibly) enough to take him out of the No.1 pick, IMO. It is not a factor of IF you will get hit, it is WHEN you do and what happens then? It is a big boys league.

 

You are taking a 2 year starter and wanting him to be a 10 year starter at least, so durability has to be a high concern, based on recent historical comparisons.

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On 1/15/2023 at 6:45 PM, DaColts85 said:

Does Saturday come in and just keep all staff the same or does he make any changes if he is the chosen one? I don’t see Gus going anywhere if so. 

He said if he is the coach he's going to make a lot of changes.  Im not sure where but thats what he said. 

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