Patriots: A tougher test (especially for Sam's passing) - few basic stats

[EastStreet]

 

WA was a bad team, but Pats will be a tougher test (for Sam passing and team in general). 

And WA was at home, and NE is on the road... And of course... Bill...

Another day for JT? If not, could be ugly. 

If Sam does good, it would be a great/huge step!

 

• In general... 
  • SOS
    • WA #28 
    • NE  #20 
  • FPI / * Total
    • WA  #25 / #29
    • NE  #12  / #13
  • FPI / * Offense
    • WA  #28 / #28
    • NE  #22 / #23
  • FPI / * Defense
    • WA  #13 / #17
    • NE  #4  / #6
• Rush-D is about the same. Near same YPG, AVG, TDs, etc..
• Pass-D is very different. 
  • Passer Rating Allowed - NE much much better
    • WA  99.2 / #28
    • NE   78.9 / #7
  • INTs - NE is much much better
    • WA - 2 / #31
    • NE - 10 / #2
  • Sacks - both good 
    • WA  - 21 / #9
    • NE - 23 / #5

[chad72]

If we can't get some semblance of a run game going and use Sam's legs into the rushing plan like the Ravens and Bears did with running QBs causing NE fits, I would say we are due for another game of being disappointed. 

[Two_pound]

We had trouble beating the pats when we had Peyton and Andrew, sorry, but Sam isn't going to beat them. Even though that awful Bears team wiped them out.

[chad72]

27 minutes ago, Two_pound said:

We had trouble beating the pats when we had Peyton and Andrew, sorry, but Sam isn't going to beat them. Even though that awful Bears team wiped them out.

But Wentz beat them last year throwing 5 passes though it was at home with Mac Jones throwing 2 picks, and our run game with JT clinching the deal. This year, our run game is not in the same shape and we are playing on the road.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

13 hours ago, EastStreet said:

 

WA was a bad team, but Pats will be a tougher test (for Sam passing and team in general). 

And WA was at home, and NE is on the road... And of course... Bill...

Another day for JT? If not, could be ugly. 

If Sam does good, it would be a great/huge step!

 

• In general... 
  • SOS
    • WA #28 
    • NE  #20 
  • FPI / * Total
    • WA  #25 / #29
    • NE  #12  / #13
  • FPI / * Offense
    • WA  #28 / #28
    • NE  #22 / #23
  • FPI / * Defense
    • WA  #13 / #17
    • NE  #4  / #6
• Rush-D is about the same. Near same YPG, AVG, TDs, etc..
• Pass-D is very different. 
  • Passer Rating Allowed - NE much much better
    • WA  99.2 / #28
    • NE   78.9 / #7
  • INTs - NE is much much better
    • WA - 2 / #31
    • NE - 10 / #2
  • Sacks - both good 
    • WA  - 21 / #9
    • NE - 23 / #5

 

Does.PFF do Breeders Cup analysis???  

 

 

[Dobbinblitz]

It is probably best to keep the keys to the BUS in the garage this coming week, and hold off on judging Sam to severely next week versus the Patriots.

 

Belichick has absolutely confused and dominated rookie quarterbacks for years. Since 2003 First and 2nd year opposing quarterbacks have a 3-42 record in Foxboro. 

 

Against the Redskins in his first start I was impressed most with the fact he went through his progressions ( When he had time ) without pocket panic, and showed he could throw the ball down field with accuracy. A very good first game.

 

New week, It may be a rough one. but, If Sam can play decently against the Pats, a lot of questions may start to be answered regarding the direction of the team.

 

reposted to your thread.

[Boondoggle]

Belichick is typically quite hard on young QBs.  So here's hoping he has a good ground game in this one.

[crazycolt1]

Since Brady left the Patriots Bill hasn't been this big, bad unbeatable head coach.  How he lives in a lot of Colts fans heads is unfortunate. 

[Dingus McGirt]

1 minute ago, crazycolt1 said:

Since Brady left the Patriots Bill hasn't been this big, bad unbeatable head coach.  How he lives in a lot of Colts fans heads is unfortunate. 

But, understandable.

[OLD FAN MAN]

11 hours ago, chad72 said:

If we can't get some semblance of a run game going and use Sam's legs into the rushing plan like the Ravens and Bears did with running QBs causing NE fits, I would say we are due for another game of being disappointed. 

it is hard to not being let down with ballards oline

[Dobbinblitz]

We can only pray that Reich does not dish out the super secret Run-Run-Pass script to Ehlinger and the Colts offense on Sunday. The line of scrimmage has been a total eclipse- all darkness.

[Moosejawcolt]

12 hours ago, Two_pound said:

We had trouble beating the pats when we had Peyton and Andrew, sorry, but Sam isn't going to beat them. Even though that awful Bears team wiped them out.

Pats D is slow so Fields gave them fits. 

[Stephen]

Luck never beat the pats. Sam needs to protect the football and take what the defense gives him

[krunk]

2 hours ago, Stephen said:

Luck never beat the pats. Sam needs to protect the football and take what the defense gives him

Sam seemed to throw the ball to everybody. Didnt really key in on a certain guy like other young QBs do. You will do well against New England when you can pass to whomever seeing that they try and take away your favorite targets. That and eliminating unnecessary turnovers.

[Stephen]

57 minutes ago, krunk said:

Sam seemed to throw the ball to everybody. Didnt really key in on a certain guy like other young QBs do. You will do well against New England when you can pass to whomever seeing that they try and take away your favorite targets. That and eliminating unnecessary turnovers.

That is true. Just got to stop beating ourselves. Cant have a new person fumbling each week

[Stephen]

59 minutes ago, krunk said:

Sam seemed to throw the ball to everybody. Didnt really key in on a certain guy like other young QBs do. You will do well against New England when you can pass to whomever seeing that they try and take away your favorite targets. That and eliminating unnecessary turnovers.

Honestly zach wilson threw three ints and they still almost beat the patriots.

[krunk]

14 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Honestly zach wilson threw three ints and they still almost beat the patriots.

They always get more hype than necessary. I dont see any good QBs that theyve beaten.  That tells me the defensive stats have come against teams who dont have good QB play. The games that i see they actually played a good QB they gave up quite a few points. There will be opportunities available for Sam if he remains poised. Main thing is not giving up unnecessary turnovers being sloppy.

[IinD]

So the rivalry IS back on ..

[Stephen]

10 hours ago, Dobbinblitz said:

It is probably best to keep the keys to the BUS in the garage this coming week, and hold off on judging Sam to severely next week versus the Patriots.

 

Belichick has absolutely confused and dominated rookie quarterbacks for years. Since 2003 First and 2nd year opposing quarterbacks have a 3-42 record in Foxboro. 

 

Against the Redskins in his first start I was impressed most with the fact he went through his progressions ( When he had time ) without pocket panic, and showed he could throw the ball down field with accuracy. A very good first game.

 

New week, It may be a rough one. but, If Sam can play decently against the Pats, a lot of questions may start to be answered regarding the direction of the team.

 

reposted to your thread.

Bears defense won the turn over battle. Fields wasnt that great passing, but he ran well against the pats.

[will426]

On 10/31/2022 at 6:55 PM, crazycolt1 said:

Since Brady left the Patriots Bill hasn't been this big, bad unbeatable head coach.  How he lives in a lot of Colts fans heads is unfortunate. 

I mean bc we suck still? And haven’t beat them often and the record shows it..so yeah unless you’ve forgotten idk what more to say lol regardless of who Bill has our record with luck /manning and anyone else is atrocious vs pats for the most part 

[Stephen]

13 minutes ago, will426 said:

I mean bc we suck still? And haven’t beat them often and the record shows it..so yeah unless you’ve forgotten idk what more to say lol regardless of who Bill has our record with luck /manning and anyone else is atrocious vs pats for the most part 

This game is our super bowl

[EastStreet]

On 10/31/2022 at 8:44 AM, chad72 said:

If we can't get some semblance of a run game going and use Sam's legs into the rushing plan like the Ravens and Bears did with running QBs causing NE fits, I would say we are due for another game of being disappointed. 

 

We need to stop using Granson as a blocker so much. Too much vs DEs 1 vs 1, and too much pulling or as a lead blocker. It's been bad all year. I don't get our scheme at all. 

[EastStreet]

On 10/31/2022 at 2:21 PM, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

Does.PFF do Breeders Cup analysis???  

 

 

 

My biggest win ever, was in the BC.... back in the 90s lol

[MikeCurtis]

I predict 

Pats 27

Colts 14

 

 

 

[EastStreet]

On 10/31/2022 at 11:53 PM, krunk said:

Sam seemed to throw the ball to everybody. Didnt really key in on a certain guy like other young QBs do. You will do well against New England when you can pass to whomever seeing that they try and take away your favorite targets. That and eliminating unnecessary turnovers.

 

For the most part, he hit his primary read (first progression). A few times he had to scramble and targeted someone down the progression. But his early progression was often to Pitt. 

[EastStreet]

On 11/1/2022 at 12:59 AM, krunk said:

They always get more hype than necessary. I dont see any good QBs that theyve beaten.  That tells me the defensive stats have come against teams who dont have good QB play. The games that i see they actually played a good QB they gave up quite a few points. There will be opportunities available for Sam if he remains poised. Main thing is not giving up unnecessary turnovers being sloppy.

 

TBH though, for years... their DBs are good. 

 

And IMO, we'll struggle vs Dugger and Jones. 

 

BB can use Dugger in several ways, and I assume he'll be more "star" this week, than then SS. 

[EastStreet]

14 minutes ago, MikeCurtis said:

I predict 

Pats 27

Colts 14

 

 

I could see that, or something like 23-13 ish... 

 

IIRC, o/u is 39 or 40... I'd probably go under on this game. 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

20 minutes ago, EastStreet said:

 

My biggest win ever, was in the BC.... back in the 90s lol

 

Up until the last few breeders cups the superfecta  payoffs were sometimes Big....like $20, 30, 40 grand! 

Just hit one and it guarantees a nice day, weekend. 

I hit one that approached 20g, but after takeout and splitting it with 2 other partners it wasn't a huge day but still nice and we were all happy. 

For horse players, its the Best betting day of the year along.with the Kentucky Derby. Lots of dumb money with much inflated payouts. But handicapping can be extremely difficult. In fact, many races aren't really handicappable. I like to play supers, key a horse underneath with as many other runners as I can and hope my key horse hits the board and long shots finish on top. 

[EastStreet]

3 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

Up until the last few breeders cups the superfecta  payoffs were sometimes Big....like $20, 30, 40 grand! 

Just hit one and it guarantees a nice day, weekend. 

I hit one that approached 20g, but after takeout and splitting it with 2 other partners it wasn't a huge day but still nice and we were all happy. 

For horse players, its the Best betting day of the year along.with the Kentucky Derby. Lots of dumb money with much inflated payouts. But handicapping can be extremely difficult. In fact, many races aren't really handicappable. I like to play supers, key a horse underneath with as many other runners as I can and hope my key horse hits the board and long shots finish on top. 

 

I normally stick to exactas and trifectas. 

Any horses you like at BCC?

[LJpalmbeacher2]

1 minute ago, EastStreet said:

 

I normally stick to exactas and trifectas. 

Any horses you like at BCC?

 

I haven't dived in yet studying. The programs should come soon and then I'll dive in and study and watch some replays.. I also like to hear some analysis from handicappers.....like Gabby Gaudet..

 

I'll let you know what I come up across. 

[EastStreet]

27 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

I haven't dived in yet studying. The programs should come soon and then I'll dive in and study and watch some replays.. I also like to hear some analysis from handicappers.....like Gabby Gaudet..

 

I'll let you know what I come up across. 

 

My buddy asked me to handicap for him. Haven't looked it much. But I do like the horse/jockey combo of Hot Rod Charlie / Tyler Gaffalione... Not saying he'll win, but likely will be included with exacta/trifecta box (along likely Flightline). And both long shots are interesting. Especially Happy Saver. Older, but very good jockey. 

 

Let me what you see / hear.

[Moosejawcolt]

On 10/31/2022 at 6:51 AM, Two_pound said:

We had trouble beating the pats when we had Peyton and Andrew, sorry, but Sam isn't going to beat them. Even though that awful Bears team wiped them out.

Fields is athletic and the Pats D is slow. Fields is not a starting NFL qb. I expect Sam to struggle but he may surprise us a little. I want to c this game. Young qbs struggle against Bill but I find those that have done really bad against Bil never amount to much on the NFL. He throws a lot at a uoung qb so I want to sew how Sam processes the game. He comes out with 3 picks and I say we will be drawing a qb early next year. I can't believe I am putting my hopes on a 6th round qb. That's how far this org has fallen. Think about that for a sec. 6 years into the Ballard and we have a 6th rounder and a horrible Oline. Wow

[Stephen]

47 minutes ago, Moosejawcolt said:

Fields is athletic and the Pats D is slow. Fields is not a starting NFL qb. I expect Sam to struggle but he may surprise us a little. I want to c this game. Young qbs struggle against Bill but I find those that have done really bad against Bil never amount to much on the NFL. He throws a lot at a uoung qb so I want to sew how Sam processes the game. He comes out with 3 picks and I say we will be drawing a qb early next year. I can't believe I am putting my hopes on a 6th round qb. That's how far this org has fallen. Think about that for a sec. 6 years into the Ballard and we have a 6th rounder and a horrible Oline. Wow

Luck threw 3 picks versus pats. If Sam plats a turnover free game against the pats it would mean he is wise beyond his years

[Moosejawcolt]

17 minutes ago, Stephen said:

Luck threw 3 picks versus pats. If Sam plats a turnover free game against the pats it would mean he is wise beyond his years

yea it was all downhill after that...lol joking. I really hope Sam is the guy. It will save us a high draft pick. The odds and percentages are severely stacked against him. I was thinking wouldn't it be so funny if their franchise savior was a 6th pick and then a lot of Ballard's high picks were busts??? To funny

[Gigc]

Stats. Think I read yesterday that Belichick is 13-0 against "rookie" QBs at home in New England.

 

I know Sam is "technically" not a rookie, but ... ugh

[PRnum1]

On 10/31/2022 at 9:14 PM, Dobbinblitz said:

We can only pray that Reich does not dish out the super secret Run-Run-Pass script to Ehlinger and the Colts offense on Sunday. The line of scrimmage has been a total eclipse- all darkness.

And more Hines up the gut.

 

Oh wait .....

[CanuckColt]

On 10/31/2022 at 3:04 PM, Boondoggle said:

Belichick is typically quite hard on young QBs.  So here's hoping he has a good ground game in this one.

Yes...maybe they should bring up D'Vonte Price and give him some reps with Taylor out...I assume that Jackson will be the lead RB.

[CanuckColt]

On 10/31/2022 at 9:14 PM, Dobbinblitz said:

We can only pray that Reich does not dish out the super secret Run-Run-Pass script to Ehlinger and the Colts offense on Sunday. The line of scrimmage has been a total eclipse- all darkness.

Isn't that all that Frank know how to do?...except stupid failed 4th-and-short plays (because analytics says so and Frank doesn't have a clue).

[krunk]

I dont have any fear of them without Tom Brady. However my concern is as a whole on the year we havent played well on the road. I dont think we will have access to JT in this one although i do trust Jackson. I just hope Sam doesnt have to throw too much. Bill is going to try and hone in on the run and force Sam to beat them from inside the pocket. We havent been doing diddley pooh with Strachan. This game would be a good coming out party for him on some key downs. Jelani Woods as well.

[EastStreet]

1 hour ago, krunk said:

I dont have any fear of them without Tom Brady. However my concern is as a whole on the year we havent played well on the road. I dont think we will have access to JT in this one although i do trust Jackson. I just hope Sam doesnt have to throw too much. Bill is going to try and hone in on the run and force Sam to beat them from inside the pocket. We havent been doing diddley pooh with Strachan. This game would be a good coming out party for him on some key downs. Jelani Woods as well.

 

Kyle Dugger's situation could be big. He was injured vs Chicago and was out last week. 

He's a hybrid DB or "star" type player who could give us/Sam troubles. 

Short passes, and outside runs, would be easier without Dugger.