Hope Reich payed attention to that Chargers- Cheifs game

[JediXMan]

That loss is 100% on Stanley leaving 6+ points off the board. Feel bad for Herbert he had a great game.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

No doubt. Way too many points left on the field.

[CR91]

I feel like there needs to be a balance of when to actually go for it and when to kick a FG. The whole analytic dictating play calling is kinda getting ridiculous.

[WoolMagnet]

I was thinking... “i hope Frank is saying, I gotta kick the field goal on 4th down Saturday.”

 

[Jack86]

With 6 seconds left the risk reward isn’t there. 3 points at that point in the game would have meant so much more. (Chris)Simms Unbuttoned will be going crazy about this for sure! 

[jskinnz]

2 hours ago, Jack86 said:

With 6 seconds left the risk reward isn’t there. 3 points at that point in the game would have meant so much more. (Chris)Simms Unbuttoned will be going crazy about this for sure! 

Dis you have the same sentiment when the Colts converted on 4th down at the end of the half against the Bucs?

[jskinnz]

8 hours ago, JediXMan said:

That loss is 100% on Stanley leaving 6+ points off the board. Feel bad for Herbert he had a great game.

It is never 100% on one player or coach. I mean feel free Charger defense to tackle Kelce in overtime. 
 

I also believe you simply cant say that they left 6+ points on the field and the game would have went the same way because kicking a field goal would change the sequence of following plays. How do we know that KC would not have returned one of the ensuing kick offs for a touchdown?

[FRW]

What I hope he learned was if we play KC, run the ball.

[jskinnz]

8 hours ago, CR91 said:

I feel like there needs to be a balance of when to actually go for it and when to kick a FG. The whole analytic dictating play calling is kinda getting ridiculous.

Data is king. And if the data suggests that going for it in the situations that Staley did, then you do it and live with the results. If the decision is supported by data (analytics) then the results on a single play / instance almost doesn’t matter because they will ultimately balance in your favor. 
 

This does not mean that feel of the game should not be factored in but if you play the %s that are dictated, more times than not you come out ahead. 

[RollerColt]

3 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

Data is king. And if the data suggests that going for it in the situations that Staley did, then you do it and live with the results. If the decision is supported by data (analytics) then the results on a single play / instance almost doesn’t matter because they will ultimately balance in your favor. 
 

This does not mean that feel of the game should not be factored in but if you play the %s that are dictated, more times than not you come out ahead. 

I agree with you, that right now in our modern world data drives everything. But data can forget one key aspect in terms of sports: the human element. If the players execute the plan, the coach is a genius. If the players fail to execute, the coach is a fool. 

[chad72]

11 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

Data is king. And if the data suggests that going for it in the situations that Staley did, then you do it and live with the results. If the decision is supported by data (analytics) then the results on a single play / instance almost doesn’t matter because they will ultimately balance in your favor. 
 

This does not mean that feel of the game should not be factored in but if you play the %s that are dictated, more times than not you come out ahead. 

 

Yeah but the data is crunched over numerous possessions. You have only a finite number of possessions. Analytics doesn't account for heart of the opposing D or the fact that players are not robots executing things in a vacuum. Flawless execution does not happen and there needs to be a buffer for margin for error, less accurate throws and bad passes/drops happen. Blind devotion to analytics is not warranted, IMO. It is not like in basketball that if you have good shooters like Curry and Klay Thompson, if you put up 30 3s, there is a good chance you make 15, possessions are fewer and future possessions are not guaranteed to make up for failures in execution, IMO.

[EastStreet]

6 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Yeah but the data is crunched over numerous possessions. You have only a finite number of possessions. Analytics doesn't account for heart of the opposing D or the fact that players are not robots executing things in a vacuum. Flawless execution does not happen and there needs to be a buffer for margin for error, less accurate throws and bad passes/drops happen. Blind devotion to analytics is not warranted, IMO. It is not like in basketball that if you have good shooters like Curry and Klay Thompson, if you put up 30 3s, there is a good chance you make 15, possessions are fewer and future possessions are not guaranteed to make up for failures in execution, IMO.

 

Yup, and just to talk specifically. The calculus around the situation is more or less even if you fail, the likelihood of the opponent going 95ish yards and scoring, is small. But the calculus doesn't take into account who the opponent is (Mahomes). It just looks at the larger pool of data.  

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Data doesn’t take until account the team your playing either. Also how is your offense and defense playing that game. What’s your oppositions offense and defense look like. 

[CoachLite]

Data analysis and statistics are one of the most misunderstood subject areas we have. People become sophomoric - literally "wise fools" - which happens a lot because of the state of education these days. Determining the probabilities THAT something happened usually won't tell you WHY, or HOW something happened, WHEN it did.

[DougDew]

Because its only a matter of time before Mahomes gets hot, you go for it on 4th down and try to score as many TDs as possible.

 

Maybe there is a one-off game where he never does get hot, but you don't know when that will be.

[DiogoSales]

1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

Dis you have the same sentiment when the Colts converted on 4th down at the end of the half against the Bucs?

THIS! /\

If they kicked both and lost, we would be here saying that nobody can beat KC with field goals. It's pretty easy to judge after.

I prefer agreesive & live with results, always

[DougDew]

6 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

Data analysis and statistics are one of the most misunderstood subject areas we have. People become sophomoric - literally "wise fools" - which happens a lot because of the state of education these days. Determining the probabilities THAT something happened usually won't tell you WHY, or HOW something happened, WHEN it did.

Causation.  Analytics needs LOTS of granular data to determine causes. 

 

Its more efficient, better, and just plain smarter to watch game film and use knowledge and experience to tell you what is happening and why.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

Tony Dungy had some good comments awhile back in going for it. He said with his manning teams he probably goes for it more then not. With his Tampa teams he probably kicks the FG. There ks so much more to it then what the data says.

[Smonroe]

Just now, Wentzszn said:

Tony Dungy had some good comments awhile back in going for it. He said with his manning teams he probably goes for it more then not. With his Tampa teams he probably kicks the FG. There ks so much more to it then what the data says.

 

Yep.  It's truly situational.  Stats are a collection of previous situations that are used to give coaches percentages on how well a play or decision may work in the future - percentages, odds.

 

They don't take into account the weather, personnel, injuries, and if one line or player has had the edge in that particular game.

 

Every play is designed to work, and every defense is designed to stop the offense.  It's a matter of execution on both sides and what player win their assignments.

[2006Coltsbestever]

16 minutes ago, DiogoSales said:

THIS! /\

If they kicked both and lost, we would be here saying that nobody can beat KC with field goals. It's pretty easy to judge after.

I prefer agreesive & live with results, always

I like it when Frank goes for it as well more than taking the points but it depends on the situation. What is funny is the same people that complain about Frank going for it, don't say a word when he gets it. When he got it against the Bucs, the naysayers didn't say a word. I was on thread so I remember. Had he not got it, he would've been bashed. I have seen many of the same people that always say take the points were critical of Frank when he was going  for 3 twice against the Ravens, one was a 37 yard FG kick. We make either kick we win - see what I did there. He tried to take points and still lost. Don't give me our FG was injured, he should still be able to make a 37 yard FG so that is weak stance. 

 

Bottom line is, winning the game. So anyone can point to this and that play to why a team losses. How about our Defense at Ravens that allowed Jackson look like Peyton Manning or the Chargers D who let Mahomes torch them for 21 points in 9 minutes?

[CR91]

1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

Data is king. And if the data suggests that going for it in the situations that Staley did, then you do it and live with the results. If the decision is supported by data (analytics) then the results on a single play / instance almost doesn’t matter because they will ultimately balance in your favor. 
 

This does not mean that feel of the game should not be factored in but if you play the %s that are dictated, more times than not you come out ahead. 

 

I'm not saying you don't run the numbers, but you need to consider a lot more then just what the data says. If the chargers kicked just one of those FGs, they win the game.

 

[chad72]

51 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Because its only a matter of time before Mahomes gets hot, you go for it on 4th down and try to score as many TDs as possible.

 

Maybe there is a one-off game where he never does get hot, but you don't know when that will be.

 

Yes, and no. If you know your D is playing well (the Chargers were, early on), take the points. Defensively, you adapt, no matter who the QB is. Also, you will NEVER have enough data for a particular opponent for a situation because you play them only twice a year, maximum and unless they have a lot of continuity in their systems, the data becomes less meaningful across years, IMO. Data gathered against the NY Giants or Dallas Cowboys isn't going to help vs the Chiefs defense, it is as simple as that. You can, however, if you go for it so many times like Staley does, see which plays have worked the best for your offense on 4th downs, and will those plays work against the pressure Spagnuolos brings or the fronts the KC Chiefs play. Trying to fit statistics compiled that are not opponent specific or your own offense specific are not as meaningful to me.

[BlackTiger]

I didnt like going for it on 4th and 5 on the goal line. they didnt need 7 at the time, and 5 is a long ways out on the goal line

 

Id be mad about that one if i were a chargers fan

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

9 minutes ago, BlackTiger said:

I didnt like going for it on 4th and 5 on the goal line. they didnt need 7 at the time, and 5 is a long ways out on the goal line

 

Id be mad about that one if i were a chargers fan

Yep. You could understand if it was just one hard. Herbert is 6’6. They could of gotten that. 5 yards is dumb.

[Jack86]

3 hours ago, jskinnz said:

Dis you have the same sentiment when the Colts converted on 4th down at the end of the half against the Bucs?

Totally different game, totally different context! 

[Jack86]

3 hours ago, jskinnz said:

It is never 100% on one player or coach. I mean feel free Charger defense to tackle Kelce in overtime. 
 

I also believe you simply cant say that they left 6+ points on the field and the game would have went the same way because kicking a field goal would change the sequence of following plays. How do we know that KC would not have returned one of the ensuing kick offs for a touchdown?

We don’t, but it’s extremely unlikely. People look at things after the fact and decide if it’s wrong or if its right. I’m talking about whether I would have pre snap. We don’t all have to agree. 
 

Go Colts.

[Four2itus]

One thing is certain....regardless of the coaches decision...he will be far more berated by decisions that create a loss, than he will ever be vilified by decisions that create a win.

 

That is the difference which defines the "Fan view". 

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 minutes ago, Jack86 said:

We don’t, but it’s extremely unlikely. People look at things after the fact and decide if it’s wrong or if its right. I’m talking about whether I would have pre snap. We don’t all have to agree. 
 

Go Colts.

It's a tough thing because when it works and we win everyone is happy, when we don't take the points and lose everyone is critical. What is funny is going for it on 4th down didn't cost us the Ravens game or Bucs game. It worked in the Bucs game and we still lost. We went for 3 twice at Ravens, missed both kicks and lost.

[throwing BBZ]

1 hour ago, CR91 said:

 

I'm not saying you don't run the numbers, but you need to consider a lot more then just what the data says. If the chargers kicked just one of those FGs, they win the game.

 

 

 Am i correct that KC also got stopped twice?

[Smonroe]

2 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

I'm not saying you don't run the numbers, but you need to consider a lot more then just what the data says. If the chargers kicked just one of those FGs, they win the game.

 

 

Well, it's a different game once he kicks that first FG, so we really don't know what happens.  Lot's of uncertainties, but I agree that he passed up too many fairly sure points.

[#12.]

If I'm Frank, sure, I look at the analytics, but I don't apply them in a one size fits all manner.  Against a defensive team and rookie QB, I'm taking some guaranteed 3s and punting more.  Belichick won't be coaching in a panicked manner and you shouldn't either.  

 

[Myles]

They actually left 9 points off the board.   The 2 easy FG's and a 46 yards FG.   Since their kicker is 3/3 from 40-49 yards, I think we can mostly assume he would have made it.

[Four2itus]

I'm just thankful this year for all the brilliant coaches we have here at .com. 

[Myles]

3 hours ago, CR91 said:

 

I'm not saying you don't run the numbers, but you need to consider a lot more then just what the data says. If the chargers kicked just one of those FGs, they win the game.

 

Maybe, but you are correct that other factors should be considered.  

To apply it to the Colts vs Titans game:

Colts are up 14-0 and have the ball around mid field.   Taylor has been running great.   It's 3rd and 3.   Long pass incomplete.  4 and 3.   Reich goes for it.   Another incomplete pass.   That is a case where the risk was not worth it.   Even if they would have got a first down, they were not yet in good FG range.  Also, if Reich knew he would be going for it on 4th down, why not give Taylor 2 runs to gain 3 yards?  The Titans took the ball and momentum and scored.   

 

So I agree, sometime you just don't do it.    I feel the same way about the Chargers first drive of the game.   Take the 3 points.

[Restinpeacesweetchloe]

What’s interesting here is how players agree with going for it. I think colt players feel the same way when Reich does it.

 

 

[CoachLite]

5 hours ago, DougDew said:

Causation.  Analytics needs LOTS of granular data to determine causes. 

 

Its more efficient, better, and just plain smarter to watch game film and use knowledge and experience to tell you what is happening and why.

It depends a lot on what you see when you watch.

[BlackTiger]

They dont  have data points from real games considering this chargers vs chiefs team on 4th goal at the 5, in this exact score and game time situation

 

what they are using is generic data from around the league and simulations.  The confidence rating on this kind of data cant be that high

 

Analytics are fine as a big picture type direction for a team but they shouldnt use it to justify bad calls. the data they have is not specific enough to use as a cop out like that, its based off simulations and different match ups around the league 

 

I wish i could see their confidence rating for simulated data and how they come up with that rating 

 

 

[CoachLite]

1 minute ago, BlackTiger said:

They dont  have data points from real games considering this chargers vs chiefs team on 4th goal at the 5, in this exact score and game time situation

 

what they are using is generic data from around the league and simulations.  The confidence rating on this kind of data cant be that high

 

Analytics are fine as a big picture type direction for a team but they shouldnt use it to justify bad calls. the data they have is not specific enough to use as a cop out like that, its based off simulations and different match ups around the league 

 

I wish i could see their confidence rating for simulated data and how they come up with that rating 

 

 

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/confidence-interval-calculator.html

[BlackTiger]

6 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/confidence-interval-calculator.html

i get that part of it, we dont know what confidence rating they actually use though.  some of the data they use is taken from computer sims rather than real games

 

There would be a different type of confidence rating in how much you can trust the stimulated data.  that is what i was talking about and any equation to solve that would be complex 

[TonyBungee]

One of the reasons the data says go for it is that even if you fail, the other team is stuck deep in their own end.  And it did seem like they played for a long time on the KC side of the field.  But in the last seconds before halftime, that part of the equation goes away.  That's when I thought they should have kicked.