Interesting roster building thoughts

[jskinnz]

Saw a tweet from Daniel Jeremiah that I thought was interesting. These are the pieces that he thinks are necessary for building a championship foundation in today's NFL 
Role/Number of players
QB (1)
Pass rusher (2)
Off Playmaker (3)
Def Playmaker (3)
Quality OL (3)

 

As it relates to the Colts, I see  too many questions marks 

 

QB - Wentz is TBD at best

Pass rusher - Buckner but TBD on Paye or anyone else. 
 

Off playmaker - Taylor is one but TBD if they have two more 

 

Def Playmaker - Leonard is one. Who are the others that turn the ball over or get the O off the field

 

Quality Olinemen - they meet this standard

 

I think Indy will be a good team but they have too many question marks right now. 

[CoachLite]

Another question - will the coaching maximize the talent we have? I think there are reasons to be very optimistic, but questions will be answered soon.

[EastStreet]

13 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

Saw a tweet from Daniel Jeremiah that I thought was interesting. These are the pieces that he thinks are necessary for building a championship foundation in today's NFL 
Role/Number of players
QB (1)
Pass rusher (2)
Off Playmaker (3)
Def Playmaker (3)
Quality OL (3)

 

As it relates to the Colts, I see  too many questions marks 

 

QB - Wentz is TBD at best

Pass rusher - Buckner but TBD on Paye or anyone else. 
 

Off playmaker - Taylor is one but TBD if they have two more 

 

Def Playmaker - Leonard is one. Who are the others that turn the ball over or get the O off the field

 

Quality Olinemen - they meet this standard

 

I think Indy will be a good team but they have too many question marks right now. 

you might find this interesting. 

https://www.theictzone.com/l/the-most-important-positions-in-the-nfl-based-on-the-last-decade/

 

not saying I agree with all of it, but makes you think.

4 minutes ago, CoachLite said:

Another question - will the coaching maximize the talent we have? I think there are reasons to be very optimistic, but questions will be answered soon.

I think coaching/scheme/game-planning is a fair area to question when looking at the roster.

[M0NEYdontLIE]

I'm with you bro. I like where we're heading but I think we are a few pieces/player developments from being a "complete" team.

[NewColtsFan]

I think just the way we all say that a great front four makes the rest of the defense better, I believe Ballard thinks the same for the O-Line.   A great offensive lineman makes the rest of the offensive pieces even better.   
 

When people wonder how we’re going to pay some of our top offensives pieces, I think Ballard’s view is that other than QB,  the O-Line has the next most important players.   And we’ll figure out the rest. 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

Saw a tweet from Daniel Jeremiah that I thought was interesting. These are the pieces that he thinks are necessary for building a championship foundation in today's NFL 
Role/Number of players
QB (1)
Pass rusher (2)
Off Playmaker (3)
Def Playmaker (3)
Quality OL (3)

 

As it relates to the Colts, I see  too many questions marks 

 

QB - Wentz is TBD at best

Pass rusher - Buckner but TBD on Paye or anyone else. 
 

Off playmaker - Taylor is one but TBD if they have two more 

 

Def Playmaker - Leonard is one. Who are the others that turn the ball over or get the O off the field

 

Quality Olinemen - they meet this standard

 

I think Indy will be a good team but they have too many question marks right now. 

 

I posted something similar in another thread and mentioned that I heard JMV multiple times say that our team is built backwards with the rule changes favouring the passing game and the league has turned into a passing league.

 

Our 3 Best players, stars, are a Guard, a Linebacker, and a RB.....all 3 are considered Devalued positions in todays game by most people. 

 

A lot depends on Wentz and what we can get out of him. But even if he plays back to top form, can we get the play needed from our mostly unproven receivers and our not so highly rated TE's to beat the Elite teams?

 

We'll start to see how things unfold soon....that's why they play the games.

[Jackie Daytona]

I think the OL is what wins, people can downplay that all they want, but how many great players achieved nothing but personal statistical success because the OL and DL around them were average to below?  The hall of Fame is littered with them...

[throwing BBZ]

10 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

I posted something similar in another thread and mentioned that I heard JMV multiple times say that our team is built backwards with the rule changes favouring the passing game and the league has turned into a passing league.

 

Our 3 Best players, stars, are a Guard, a Linebacker, and a RB.....all 3 are considered Devalued positions in todays game by most people. 

 

A lot depends on Wentz and what we can get out of him. But even if he plays back to top form, can we get the play needed from our mostly unproven receivers and our not so highly rated TE's to beat the Elite teams?

 

We'll start to see how things unfold soon....that's why they play the games.

 

 

   LMAO!  NO!  It's a Guard, A DT, and a LB.  Our "devalued" guard excels at doing His job. And anyone with a Clue sees him make the TWO guys beside him more affective. LMAO "Built Wrong".

Buckner made Autry & Grover look better than they were.

And Great Defenses always have a great LB.

  Now that we have that right!

 But would agree we may also have an All-Pro RB also.

  How in the world did we ever pass for 4000+ yards last season with our motley receiving core, and a QB that god rid of the ball in 2.2 seconds.

 HAHAHAHA!

   We have a lot of youth with less than 3 years experience, and a new QB.

 It's a developemental season, the next rung of a rising roster, but Appears to some to have a pretty high ceiling. Why is that? 

Because we have a TEAM filled with Lots of wisely chosen, intelligent, high character FOOTBALL Players, that are self motivated to become their best as players and men!!  

[IrsaysArmy]

12 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 

   LMAO!  NO!  It's a Guard, A DT, and a LB.  Our "devalued" guard excels at doing His job. And anyone with a Clue sees him make the TWO guys beside him more affective. LMAO "Built Wrong".

Buckner made Autry & Grover look better than they were.

And Great Defenses always have a great LB.

  Now that we have that right!

 But would agree we may also have an All-Pro RB also.

  How in the world did we ever pass for 4000+ yards last season with our motley receiving core, and a QB that god rid of the ball in 2.2 seconds.

 HAHAHAHA!

   We have a lot of youth with less than 3 years experience, and a new QB.

 It's a developemental season, the next rung of a rising roster, but Appears to some to have a pretty high ceiling. Why is that? 

Because we have a TEAM filled with Lots of wisely chosen, intelligent, high character FOOTBALL Players, that are self motivated to become their best as players and men!!  

3 years of experience. Well said. These guys are so young. Ballard has built this team with very few free agent additions. We might have stars on this team we don’t even know about yet. 

 

[NannyMcafee]

On 9/4/2021 at 9:30 PM, jskinnz said:

Saw a tweet from Daniel Jeremiah that I thought was interesting. These are the pieces that he thinks are necessary for building a championship foundation in today's NFL 
Role/Number of players
QB (1)
Pass rusher (2)
Off Playmaker (3)
Def Playmaker (3)
Quality OL (3)

 

As it relates to the Colts, I see  too many questions marks 

 

QB - Wentz is TBD at best

Pass rusher - Buckner but TBD on Paye or anyone else. 
 

Off playmaker - Taylor is one but TBD if they have two more 

 

Def Playmaker - Leonard is one. Who are the others that turn the ball over or get the O off the field

 

Quality Olinemen - they meet this standard

 

I think Indy will be a good team but they have too many question marks right now. 

 

You know what a play maker is? 

 

They make plays. 

 

Leonard, Buckner, and Moore fit that definition. 

 

Id say QB and Offensive playmaker are where the ??? Lie. Along with the obvious pass rush being TBD. So we are "about" half way there according to that standard. 

 

Oline, defensive playmakers yes. 

 

QB, offensive playmakers, pass rush, no. Although I have a bone to pick with the pass rush not being included into defensive playmakers. 

[Archer]

On 9/4/2021 at 9:30 PM, jskinnz said:

 

I think Indy will be a good team but they have too many question marks right now. 

The thing about question marks is that they often have answers, which are sometimes exclamation points.  KC a couple of years ago had a question mark that scared all predictors off in untested 2nd year QB Mahomes. How’d that work out for them?  I mean this formula is probably a good observation and all, but there are many different formulas to win a SB.  I’m pretty sure Baltimore did it without any offensive playmakers…

[Fluke_33]

On 9/4/2021 at 9:30 PM, jskinnz said:

Off playmaker - Taylor is one but TBD if they have two more 

I think Hines is a second but he needs to be utilized more and tough for both of those to be on the field at the same time

[jskinnz]

11 hours ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

You know what a play maker is? 

 

They make plays. 

 

Leonard, Buckner, and Moore fit that definition. 

 

Id say QB and Offensive playmaker are where the ??? Lie. Along with the obvious pass rush being TBD. So we are "about" half way there according to that standard. 

 

Oline, defensive playmakers yes. 

 

QB, offensive playmakers, pass rush, no. Although I have a bone to pick with the pass rush not being included into defensive playmakers. 

 
Thanks for the definition of a playmaker. I feel more educated now. 
 

I considered Kenny Moore and would listen to an argument that he could be listed as a playmaker. Ultimately though I am not sure he fits the narrow description from Jeremiah. 

Paye and Okereke are two that I think could move into the pass rush / playmaker category.

 

Wentz is clearly the biggest question mark.  

 

[NannyMcafee]

9 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

 
Thanks for the definition of a playmaker. I feel more educated now. 
 

I considered Kenny Moore and would listen to an argument that he could be listed as a playmaker. Ultimately though I am not sure he fits the narrow description from Jeremiah. 

Paye and Okereke are two that I think could move into the pass rush / playmaker category.

 

Wentz is clearly the biggest question mark.  

 

 

I apologize for trying to make you feel as if I thought you were less educated. It was an unneeded comment for the discussion at hand. 

[jskinnz]

45 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

I think Hines is a second but he needs to be utilized more and tough for both of those to be on the field at the same time

Don’t disagree at all. Just depends on utilization. 
 

Campbell, Pittman and few others could be as well. 

[NannyMcafee]

17 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

I considered Kenny Moore and would listen to an argument that he could be listed as a playmaker. Ultimately though I am not sure he fits the narrow description from Jeremiah. 

Paye and Okereke are two that I think could move into the pass rush / playmaker category.

 

Wentz is clearly the biggest question mark.  

 

 

I guess I'd just consider Moore a guy who can make big plays in big moments. We have seen that as recently as last year with his one handed INT in the endzone. And he's made enough big plays with the Colts that we all expect it to happen from time to time. I wouldnt consider elite. 

 

With Wentz I am expecting injury to happen. What I am hoping for is a healthy oline for most of the year, and for both Frank and Wentz himself to be proactive about protecting his body in games. Even to the extent of just falling down when you KNOW there is no where else to go. 

 

That is what I see as key to Wentz staying healthy long term. He has proven prone to injury with his style of play so we will see how much they can do. 

 

 

[DougDew]

Well, the Colts had 6 draft picks no lower than pick 37 from 2016 to 2019; and selected a C, FS, G, ILB, G/RT, and #2 CB.  Followed by an X WR, then trade up to get a RB at 41 in 2020. 

 

Only Buckner, the 3T that they spent pick #13 on, is a highly valued position.  Then they had to sign him to big money as well.

 

So yeah, saying the roster is built kinds backwards is a pretty fair assessment.

[NewColtsFan]

8 hours ago, jskinnz said:

 
Thanks for the definition of a playmaker. I feel more educated now. 
 

I considered Kenny Moore and would listen to an argument that he could be listed as a playmaker. Ultimately though I am not sure he fits the narrow description from Jeremiah. 

Paye and Okereke are two that I think could move into the pass rush / playmaker category.

 

Wentz is clearly the biggest question mark.  

 

Sorry, you lost me?   Where is the definition of a playmaker that Jeremiah provided?   I don’t see one.   All I see is that he wants the defense to have three play makers.   How do Moore and Buckner not fit the concept of play makers?   What is missing?

 

I read a quote from Ballard this week about having three play makers, one at each level.  He listed Buckner, Leonard and Moore.  In fact, he said the nickel corner was the most important of the cornerback spots, which surprised me to read that. 

[NewColtsFan]

9 hours ago, DougDew said:

Well, the Colts had 6 draft picks no lower than pick 37 from 2016 to 2019; and selected a C, FS, G, ILB, G/RT, and #2 CB.  Followed by an X WR, then trade up to get a RB at 41 in 2020. 

 

Only Buckner, the 3T that they spent pick #13 on, is a highly valued position.  Then they had to sign him to big money as well.

 

So yeah, saying the roster is built kinds backwards is a pretty fair assessment.

If all you’re doing is going by position then I think it’s only half an argument.   Let’s put names to the players/positions…..

 

2016:

Ryan Kelly.  The highest ranked center of his class, and the highest ranked center in roughly 3-4years.   Went where he was projected.  No talk of being over-drafted. 
 

2017:

Malik Hooker.   The highest ranked safety in his class, the highest ranked safety since Troy Polumanu and the highest ranked free safety since Ed Reed roughly 15 years before him.   Went where he was projected.  No talk of being over-drafted. 

 

Quincy Wilson.    I know you didn't list him,  but since he's a top-50 player who missed,  I threw him in as well.    Wilson was the youngest player in the draft,  normally that's a good thing.   More potential for upside.   Perhaps if we had Brian Decker back then, he'd have steered us clear of QW.   But he went toward the lower part of his draft range.    No talk of being over-drafted.   Has disappointed at his other stops.   Life in the NFL.

 

2018:

Quenton Nelson.  Highest ranked guard since…..?    League of his own.  Fully lived up to the hype.   Drafted where he was projected.   No talk of being over-drafted. 
 

Darius Leonard:   You have him listed as ILB.  He plays mostly OLB.  I think of him simply as a LB.    But he doesn’t leave the field.   Clearly over-drafted from various projections.  Based on performance, I think it’s obvious that Ballard was right and doubters were wrong.

 

Braden Smith:   Ballard called him the last starting level rookie guard in the class.   Would be a success if he had played only guard, but has exceeded expectations and plays a more important position of RT.   Ballard clearly and obviously right. 
 

2019:

Not sure where the talk that Rock was drafted to be CB2.   Perhaps you’re saying that’s the level he’s achieved and not higher?    If so, that’s accurate.  He went roughly where he was projected.   No talk of over drafted.   Despite being a disappointment,  CB has not given up on him.   Rock was just named the 3rd corner for 2021 behind Moore and Rhodes.  Clearly we hope he achieves more success. 
 

2020:

Michael Pittman.  Went roughly where he was projected.  No talk of being over-drafted.  Had solid rookie year.  He projects as a future WR1 or a very high level WR2.  
 

Jonathan Taylor.  Went roughly where he was projected.   No talk of being over-drafted.  Lived up to the hype.   We spent just a 5 to move up.   Can’t imagine someone complaining about that now, though I know one prominent poster who complained about it on draft day. 
 

Now….   With names filled in, do you still object?   Do others?   I don’t understand posters who don’t think Buckner and Moore are difference makers on defense?   Ballard publicly called them that last week in an interview.   Don’t understand people who don’t think Pittman and Taylor aren’t difference makers?   We also think highly of Campbell and Strachan and Granson.  Clearly beyond QB, Ballard believes the OL and the DL are the most important positions, foundational positions.   He thinks other positions can be adequately filled until more permanent players can be found.    
 

Is Ballard’s view to roster building unique?  Yes.   But I think he’s had enough success to earn the benefit of the doubt.   Clearly Irsay thinks so.   Beyond being a fan, as an observer, I find his approach fascinating to watch unfold.  

[DougDew]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

If all you’re doing is going by position then I think it’s only half an argument.   Let’s put names to the players/positions…..

 

2016:

Ryan Kelly.  The highest ranked center of his class, and the highest ranked center in roughly 3-4years.   Went where he was projected.  No talk of being over-drafted. 
 

2017:

Malik Hooker.   The highest ranked safety in his class, the highest ranked safety since Troy Polumanu and the highest ranked free safety since Ed Reed roughly 15 years before him.   Went where he was projected.  No talk of being over-drafted. 

 

Quincy Wilson.    I know you didn't list him,  but since he's a top-50 player who missed,  I threw him in as well.    Wilson was the youngest player in the draft,  normally that's a good thing.   More potential for upside.   Perhaps if we had Brian Decker back then, he'd have steered us clear of QW.   But he went toward the lower part of his draft range.    No talk of being over-drafted.   Has disappointed at his other stops.   Life in the NFL.

 

2018:

Quenton Nelson.  Highest ranked guard since…..?    League of his own.  Fully lived up to the hype.   Drafted where he was projected.   No talk of being over-drafted. 
 

Darius Leonard:   You have him listed as ILB.  He plays mostly OLB.  I think of him simply as a LB.    But he doesn’t leave the field.   Clearly over-drafted from various projections.  Based on performance, I think it’s obvious that Ballard was right and doubters were wrong.

 

Braden Smith:   Ballard called him the last starting level rookie guard in the class.   Would be a success if he had played only guard, but has exceeded expectations and plays a more important position of RT.   Ballard clearly and obviously right. 
 

2019:

Not sure where the talk that Rock was drafted to be CB2.   Perhaps you’re saying that’s the level he’s achieved and not higher?    If so, that’s accurate.  He went roughly where he was projected.   No talk of over drafted.   Despite being a disappointment,  CB has not given up on him.   Rock was just named the 3rd corner for 2021 behind Moore and Rhodes.  Clearly we hope he achieves more success. 
 

2020:

Michael Pittman.  Went roughly where he was projected.  No talk of being over-drafted.  Had solid rookie year.  He projects as a future WR1 or a very high level WR2.  
 

Jonathan Taylor.  Went roughly where he was projected.   No talk of being over-drafted.  Lived up to the hype.   We spent just a 5 to move up.   Can’t imagine someone complaining about that now, though I know one prominent poster who complained about it on draft day. 
 

Now….   With names filled in, do you still object?   Do others?   I don’t understand posters who don’t think Buckner and Moore are difference makers on defense?   Ballard publicly called them that last week in an interview.   Don’t understand people who don’t think Pittman and Taylor aren’t difference makers?   We also think highly of Campbell and Strachan and Granson.  Clearly beyond QB, Ballard believes the OL and the DL are the most important positions, foundational positions.   He thinks other positions can be adequately filled until more permanent players can be found.    
 

Is Ballard’s view to roster building unique?  Yes.   But I think he’s had enough success to earn the benefit of the doubt.   Clearly Irsay thinks so.   Beyond being a fan, as an observer, I find his approach fascinating to watch unfold.  

It took you more than the normal amount of words to move the goal posts, then argue about something I didn't say.  I never said playmaker, overdrafted, or Ballard. 

 

I was responding to the comment that JMV said the roster was built kinda backwards, because it is.

 

No lower than Pick 41.  C, FS, G, ILB, G/RT, BadRAS CB, XWR, RB.  And notice that picking the C, G, and RT didn't prevent the current Colts GM from having to trade up to pick a RB with sufficient talent at 41. 

 

(Based upon the euphoric comments in the 2018 draft, I was thinking our LG should be able to pancake the DT, pancake the LB, then pancake the S so often that a low talented RB would gain 2,000 yards by jogging.) 

 

A 43 WILL is similar to a 34 ILB.  The 43 eliminates an OLB.  And the WILL is, by design, the guy who makes the most tackles.  So any amount of analysis of a 43 WILL has to factor in that the number of tackles or "plays" are lofty by design.  Polian made a point to draft them in the 2nd round and let other teams sign them to big contracts because the young college players could step in and start making tackles immediately.  Just like Leonard did his rookie year (BTW, has he done a lot more as a vet than what he did as a rookie?...hmmm)

 

Also, Palomalu was a SS, like Bob Sanders, not a FS.   The S with the most talent should be the SS, since he generally has to do more things than the FS.  JMO (and Polian's too).  A playmaking FS that happens once every 15 years is called a lucky pick, not an expectation.  Not to mention that BALT defense was loaded, making it easier for a FS to make big plays.

[BlackTiger]

11 minutes ago, DougDew said:

Also, Palomalu was a SS, like Bob Sanders, not a FS.   The S with the most talent should be the SS, since he generally has to do more things than the FS. 

Troy moved around a lot, they lined him up at LB, FS and sometimes nickel back too

 

When he won dpoty i think he played more like a FS

[DougDew]

1 minute ago, BlackTiger said:

Troy moved around a lot, they lined him up at LB, FS and sometimes nickel back too

 

When he won dpoty i think he played more like a FS

Ok, heading down a tangent.  The point is that Troy was a very talented player who also played FS.  NCF brought up Troy in the context of our Pick15 FS.  Not the same player at all, and it was never thought to be.  

[NewColtsFan]

8 hours ago, DougDew said:

It took you more than the normal amount of words to move the goal posts, then argue about something I didn't say.  I never said playmaker, overdrafted, or Ballard. 

 

I was responding to the comment that JMV said the roster was built kinda backwards, because it is.

 

No lower than Pick 41.  C, FS, G, ILB, G/RT, BadRAS CB, XWR, RB.  And notice that picking the C, G, and RT didn't prevent the current Colts GM from having to trade up to pick a RB with sufficient talent at 41. 

 

(Based upon the euphoric comments in the 2018 draft, I was thinking our LG should be able to pancake the DT, pancake the LB, then pancake the S so often that a low talented RB would gain 2,000 yards by jogging.) 

 

A 43 WILL is similar to a 34 ILB.  The 43 eliminates an OLB.  And the WILL is, by design, the guy who makes the most tackles.  So any amount of analysis of a 43 WILL has to factor in that the number of tackles or "plays" are lofty by design.  Polian made a point to draft them in the 2nd round and let other teams sign them to big contracts because the young college players could step in and start making tackles immediately.  Just like Leonard did his rookie year (BTW, has he done a lot more as a vet than what he did as a rookie?...hmmm)

 

Also, Palomalu was a SS, like Bob Sanders, not a FS.   The S with the most talent should be the SS, since he generally has to do more things than the FS.  JMO (and Polian's too).  A playmaking FS that happens once every 15 years is called a lucky pick, not an expectation.  Not to mention that BALT defense was loaded, making it easier for a FS to make big plays.

I’m not denying the roster is built uniquely…  I’m saying whether it’s JMV or other critics, they’re not paying a compliment.   They’re making a criticism.   Hey, that’s their opinion, they’re entitled and they may even be right. 
 

All I was trying to do by plugging in names is to get away from a nameless, faceless listing of positions.   To note that we’re getting bang for our buck.  To show that we’re getting very good players to build around.  

If you want to call that moving the goal posts — go ahead.  I’m just trying to make a more broad response to a narrow argument.  Actual players vs just positions. 
 

Not sure why you think taking a shot at Leonard would be a good road to go down?   The Colts themselves have listed Leonard’s three year stats and they’re historical.   You can’t get record stats for three years based on one great year. He’s in rare company.   His career isn’t over…  let’s see how he continues….

 

[Jackie Daytona]

On 9/6/2021 at 8:20 PM, NewColtsFan said:

Sorry, you lost me?   Where is the definition of a playmaker that Jeremiah provided?   I don’t see one.   All I see is that he wants the defense to have three play makers.   How do Moore and Buckner not fit the concept of play makers?   What is missing?

 

I read a quote from Ballard this week about having three play makers, one at each level.  He listed Buckner, Leonard and Moore.  In fact, he said the nickel corner was the most important of the cornerback spots, which surprised me to read that. 

With the preponderance of 3 WR base sets and the base set of our D basically being a nickel set the majority of the time, KennyMo definitely qualifies as a "playmaker" with his play.... You aren't a starting defensive player widely considered in the top 5-10 at your position in the league without fitting pretty much any general definition of the term "playmaker"

[EastStreet]

FWIW... Our base personnel is 4-2-5 most often, and we're in Cover 3 most often...

So one could say our DL is obviously 1st level, but after that, level's are muddy.

Our NB and SS play shallow most of the time, so could be considered 2nd level along with LBs.

That would leave our outside CBs and FS as 3rd level. 

 

In essence then, we have 1 playmaker on the 1st level, 2 on the second, and perhaps none on the 3rd. Now some may say Rhodes is, or Blackmon might develop into one. And of course we play other coverages besides C3.

[Superman]

On 9/4/2021 at 6:30 PM, jskinnz said:

Pass rusher (2)
 

Def Playmaker (3)

 

So this is two pass rushers, plus three other defensive playmakers, right? We still have some work to do there. It would be nice if Turay and Blackmon broke out this season.

 

The team is much closer on offense, but that's still dependent on some young guys developing, like Pittman and Campbell. And I guess it's dependent on Hines' usage. Also, writing off Hilton at this point; I was thinking he would be a factor, but his injury has changed my mind. Ultimately, offensive production is going to be highly dependent on the QB, which is the biggest question mark for this team.

[DougDew]

51 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

So this is two pass rushers, plus three other defensive playmakers, right? We still have some work to do there. It would be nice if Turay and Blackmon broke out this season.

 

The team is much closer on offense, but that's still dependent on some young guys developing, like Pittman and Campbell. And I guess it's dependent on Hines' usage. Also, writing off Hilton at this point; I was thinking he would be a factor, but his injury has changed my mind. Ultimately, offensive production is going to be highly dependent on the QB, which is the biggest question mark for this team.

I think its good to have resigned our best players.  Its something you can't really walk away from.  Its simply a bit unfortunate that pick 6, 36, and 37, couldn't have been a long term QB, LT , and #1 playmaking WR.  We got the pass rusher at 21, and that's the right place to pick the playmaking pass rusher, so the moon's aligned for that to happen. 

 

But there are challenges in getting the 3 playmakers at different levels of the O and D....and not just at the levels, but also laterally between interior and edge players.....when the drafts from 2016 to 2020 fell certain ways. 

 

Including Buckner and Moore, nearly all of our best players are interior players.  

[gspdx]

11 minutes ago, DougDew said:

I think its good to have resigned our best players.  Its something you can't really walk away from.  Its simply a bit unfortunate that pick 6, 36, and 37, couldn't have been a long term QB, LT , and #1 playmaking WR.  We got the pass rusher at 21, and that's the right place to pick the playmaking pass rusher, so the moon's aligned for that to happen. 

 

But there are challenges in getting the 3 playmakers at different levels of the O and D....and not just at the levels, but also laterally between interior and edge players.....when the drafts from 2016 to 2020 fell certain ways. 

 

Including Buckner and Moore, nearly all of our best players are interior players.  

 

It is possible that even with a QB, LT and #1 WR they wouldn't have had the kind of impact we expect since some of the other positions might still be very weak.  What if we didn't have Nelson, Kelly and Smith on the Oline?  How effective would a great LT be if the rest of the line was mediocre or worse? Would we really be a better team than we are now?  Not sure we would. 

 

And when we picked Nelson at #6 we had our franchise QB.  So to say the roster is built backwards is not reflecting the total situation.  If we had needed a QB then I am sure Ballard would have addressed it.  And I would think if Luck had stayed Ballard would have been getting some "playmakers" instead of trying to find a way to replace the QB.  

 

And like you said the drafts fell certain ways.  That surely has an impact too.  The GMs have to work within the structure of their draft boards and how all the other teams draft boards/picks impact them.

 

There are so many variables, so many "what if" scenarios.  But none of that makes this build backwards, maybe not the norm, but far from backwards.

 

I like Ballard's pragmatic approach. He has a long term plan and at times he has had to adjust his short term tactical implementation, but I think the strategic plan has stayed pretty constant.

 

 

[Myles]

16 minutes ago, gspdx said:

 

It is possible that even with a QB, LT and #1 WR they wouldn't have had the kind of impact we expect since some of the other positions might still be very weak.  What if we didn't have Nelson, Kelly and Smith on the Oline?  How effective would a great LT be if the rest of the line was mediocre or worse? Would we really be a better team than we are now?  Not sure we would. 

 

And when we picked Nelson at #6 we had our franchise QB.  So to say the roster is built backwards is not reflecting the total situation.  If we had needed a QB then I am sure Ballard would have addressed it.  And I would think if Luck had stayed Ballard would have been getting some "playmakers" instead of trying to find a way to replace the QB.  

 

And like you said the drafts fell certain ways.  That surely has an impact too.  The GMs have to work within the structure of their draft boards and how all the other teams draft boards/picks impact them.

 

There are so many variables, so many "what if" scenarios.  But none of that makes this build backwards, maybe not the norm, but far from backwards.

 

I like Ballard's pragmatic approach. He has a long term plan and at times he has had to adjust his short term tactical implementation, but I think the strategic plan has stayed pretty constant.

 

 

Good post.  

Ballard had to save Luck.   He did it too by drafting Nelson and Smith.   He traded down from 3 to 6 and got the following for the trade:

No. 6 overall (2018): LG Quenton Nelson

No. 37 overall (2018): RT Braden Smith

No. 52 overall (2018): DE Kemoko Turay

No. 169 overall (2018): RB Jordan Wilkins

No. 34 overall (2019): CB Rock Ya-Sin

 

 

[Superman]

20 minutes ago, Myles said:

Good post.  

Ballard had to save Luck.   He did it too by drafting Nelson and Smith.   He traded down from 3 to 6 and got the following for the trade:

No. 6 overall (2018): LG Quenton Nelson

No. 37 overall (2018): RT Braden Smith

No. 52 overall (2018): DE Kemoko Turay

No. 169 overall (2018): RB Jordan Wilkins

No. 34 overall (2019): CB Rock Ya-Sin

 

The OL picks paid off right away. Once AC was back, the OL basically took the season over, and that unit has been the best on the team since then. 

 

I also don't think anyone anticipated AC retiring, certainly not back in 2018. I think that only started to become a concern after the 2019 season, and then he gave us one more year. So the need at LT kind of snuck up on is, just not as abruptly as the need at QB.

[DougDew]

56 minutes ago, gspdx said:

 

It is possible that even with a QB, LT and #1 WR they wouldn't have had the kind of impact we expect since some of the other positions might still be very weak.  What if we didn't have Nelson, Kelly and Smith on the Oline?  How effective would a great LT be if the rest of the line was mediocre or worse? Would we really be a better team than we are now?  Not sure we would. 

 

And when we picked Nelson at #6 we had our franchise QB.  So to say the roster is built backwards is not reflecting the total situation.  If we had needed a QB then I am sure Ballard would have addressed it.  And I would think if Luck had stayed Ballard would have been getting some "playmakers" instead of trying to find a way to replace the QB.  

 

And like you said the drafts fell certain ways.  That surely has an impact too.  The GMs have to work within the structure of their draft boards and how all the other teams draft boards/picks impact them.

 

There are so many variables, so many "what if" scenarios.  But none of that makes this build backwards, maybe not the norm, but far from backwards.

 

I like Ballard's pragmatic approach. He has a long term plan and at times he has had to adjust his short term tactical implementation, but I think the strategic plan has stayed pretty constant.

 

 

The three players in question are a subset of the broader group of players/positions I singled out in my first post.  Any one player, or position, or several by themselves do not make it harder, but year after year after year, 1st and second round picks devoted to interior positions and nontraditional impact positions can catch up to us.

 

It makes it harder to achieve what Jeremiah is talking about.  Looking at it from a broad landscape, he's saying that talent needs to be disbursed throughout the positions, covering all levels and laterals of the playing field.  Effectively, it allows a team to attack and defend all parts of the field better than having talent concentrated in one dimension.  

 

I don't think the roster was designed this way exclusively.  Part of it is a matter of circumstance of what players were available at the time and who was already on the roster (dare I say "for need?")  It can work.  Especially if we can successfully find a retread QB and LT we can ride for a few years.  Absent those two players, we might be sitting with Davenport and Trubisky/Dalton....or Fields without a future pass rusher on board (and Gransen in the trade up for Fields).  How evenly talented would the roster be then?

[jskinnz]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

So this is two pass rushers, plus three other defensive playmakers, right? We still have some work to do there. It would be nice if Turay and Blackmon broke out this season.

 

The team is much closer on offense, but that's still dependent on some young guys developing, like Pittman and Campbell. And I guess it's dependent on Hines' usage. Also, writing off Hilton at this point; I was thinking he would be a factor, but his injury has changed my mind. Ultimately, offensive production is going to be highly dependent on the QB, which is the biggest question mark for this team.

 

Jeremiah did not specify but the responses to his tweet all have pass rushers and def playmakers separated.  Which BTW - read some of the comments to the Tweet by people who think their team has checked all of Jeremiah's boxes if you want some entertainment.  

 

I have a good feeling about Paye.  Hopefully Turay regains his 2019 form prior to injury.  

 

Okereke was a stand out in camp - maybe he rises to playmaker level this season.  To @NewColtsFan Moore could be listed as a playmaker as well as obviously Leonard.

 

Offense has potential guys to fit the playmaker definition with none bigger than Wentz.

[stitches]

@DougDewyou know I'm with you about the way this roster is built. Ballard has spent majority of his premier resources on low-value positions and this is part of the reason I think we are lacking at some of the most important positions... I think there are several factors to this... I think he certainly has a unique view on how to build his roster, but I also think he's suffered some bad luck with his roster - Luck and AC retiring, bad injuries to the WRs he's invested in, bad injuries with Turay, as well as some weird luck with the drafts. Namely - at the time of the drafts, the projected players in the range we were picking were of similarly low positional value - example, go look at that Nelson pick.

 

Nelson is by far the best player we could have picked from anyone in the next 250 picks, if you exclude QBs, which IMO you should exclude because we still had Luck at the time (and this includes positional value - don't know if people realize this but some advanced analytics models, i.e. PFF WAR, put Nelson as the most valuable offensive lineman in his first 3 years in the league). This includes LTs and RTs. He has returned more wins above replacement than the best LTs in the league even though generally LT is considered more valuable position and PFF accounts for that positional value.

 

I'm with you when you consider a guard vs EDGE or WR or CB... but we are not talking about some random guard here... we are talking about quite possibly the best guard of this generation. And the alternatives were - other linebackers, safeties, nose tackles, RTs... IMO Ballard absolutely killed that draft... no ifs and buts. He got great value from dropping back and drafted the best player in the draft... sure at a position that's not highly valued but his level of play is so consistently high that he returns more value than even most of the EDGEs, LTs and CBs that are considered hits(let alone the ones that bust). 

 

As an overall place where this roster has ended up being, we can have a lot of nits to picks and I've done it in the past... I absolutely agree with you that we still have no idea if we have a long term solution at most of the important positions in football - QB, LT, EDGE, WR, CB... but at the same time... when you go through the drafts themselves... I cannot really say I can beef with much of it. Sure I have different opinions than Ballard on some players, but overall IMO he's done a good job building a good roster. Now he needs the guys at the most important positions he's drafted/acquired to hit(Wentz, Pittman, Campbell, Paye, Turay, Lewis, Fisher, Rock, Rodgers)... yes, there are a lot of question marks here... but that's the bet he's making... and we will see soon enough about whether or not most of them will pan out. IMO we NEED Wentz to be a hit. If he's not that's setting us back tremendously. We need at least one of the WRs to hit... we need at least one of the DEs to hit. We need to figure out what we are going to do with LT long-term even if Fisher plays well. I'm excited to watch all of those storylines develop over the season.

[throwing BBZ]

On 9/5/2021 at 11:27 PM, NannyMcafee said:

 

You know what a play maker is? 

 

They make plays. 

 

Leonard, Buckner, and Moore fit that definition. 

 

Id say QB and Offensive playmaker are where the ??? Lie. Along with the obvious pass rush being TBD. So we are "about" half way there according to that standard. 

 

Oline, defensive playmakers yes. 

 

QB, offensive playmakers, pass rush, no. Although I have a bone to pick with the pass rush not being included into defensive playmakers. 

 

 I unabashedly consider Hines, Pascal, and Taylor as extremely Trusty playmakers. 

 And pass rush... it is going to be... WICKED!
 The only obvious area of concern is at CB 3. And with improved safety play and a better pass rush, CB 3 doesn't have to be the reason we get outscored.

 

[Myles]

It seems a bit much to expect 5 "playmakers" on defense with how it seems "playmaker" is being defined.  

Buckner, Leonard, Moore, Paye, Rhoads and Blackmon could all qualify.  

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

 

Jeremiah did not specify but the responses to his tweet all have pass rushers and def playmakers separated.  Which BTW - read some of the comments to the Tweet by people who think their team has checked all of Jeremiah's boxes if you want some entertainment.  

 

I have a good feeling about Paye.  Hopefully Turay regains his 2019 form prior to injury.  

 

Okereke was a stand out in camp - maybe he rises to playmaker level this season.  To @NewColtsFan Moore could be listed as a playmaker as well as obviously Leonard.

 

Offense has potential guys to fit the playmaker definition with none bigger than Wentz.

Interesting.   Moore, but for some odd reason, not Buckner?     That’s a head scratcher for me…. 

[DougDew]

5 hours ago, stitches said:

@DougDewyou know I'm with you about the way this roster is built. Ballard has spent majority of his premier resources on low-value positions and this is part of the reason I think we are lacking at some of the most important positions... I think there are several factors to this... I think he certainly has a unique view on how to build his roster, but I also think he's suffered some bad luck with his roster - Luck and AC retiring, bad injuries to the WRs he's invested in, bad injuries with Turay, as well as some weird luck with the drafts. Namely - at the time of the drafts, the projected players in the range we were picking were of similarly low positional value - example, go look at that Nelson pick.

 

Nelson is by far the best player we could have picked from anyone in the next 250 picks, if you exclude QBs, which IMO you should exclude because we still had Luck at the time (and this includes positional value - don't know if people realize this but some advanced analytics models, i.e. PFF WAR, put Nelson as the most valuable offensive lineman in his first 3 years in the league). This includes LTs and RTs. He has returned more wins above replacement than the best LTs in the league even though generally LT is considered more valuable position and PFF accounts for that positional value.

 

I'm with you when you consider a guard vs EDGE or WR or CB... but we are not talking about some random guard here... we are talking about quite possibly the best guard of this generation. And the alternatives were - other linebackers, safeties, nose tackles, RTs... IMO Ballard absolutely killed that draft... no ifs and buts. He got great value from dropping back and drafted the best player in the draft... sure at a position that's not highly valued but his level of play is so consistently high that he returns more value than even most of the EDGEs, LTs and CBs that are considered hits(let alone the ones that bust). 

 

As an overall place where this roster has ended up being, we can have a lot of nits to picks and I've done it in the past... I absolutely agree with you that we still have no idea if we have a long term solution at most of the important positions in football - QB, LT, EDGE, WR, CB... but at the same time... when you go through the drafts themselves... I cannot really say I can beef with much of it. Sure I have different opinions than Ballard on some players, but overall IMO he's done a good job building a good roster. Now he needs the guys at the most important positions he's drafted/acquired to hit(Wentz, Pittman, Campbell, Paye, Turay, Lewis, Fisher, Rock, Rodgers)... yes, there are a lot of question marks here... but that's the bet he's making... and we will see soon enough about whether or not most of them will pan out. IMO we NEED Wentz to be a hit. If he's not that's setting us back tremendously. We need at least one of the WRs to hit... we need at least one of the DEs to hit. We need to figure out what we are going to do with LT long-term even if Fisher plays well. I'm excited to watch all of those storylines develop over the season.

Two things that I want to emphasize. 

 

I don't think its right for fans to either criticize or praise draft picks as being calculated decisions to the degree that we do.  As they say about Poker, in the end, its still a card game; and you can't ever predict which card is on top.  The draft falls as it does on the day it does, not before.  When Polian said when picking near the bottom of every first round "the draft unfolded just like we expected". Nonsense.  Nobody knew how it was going to unfold to the degree that that statement isn't a line of bull.  GMs can only choose from the cards that are available.  So to that point, thinking a GM planned every pick and got the player he really wanted, as a function solely of his strategy and intellect, is nonsense.  If the card that the odds said was going to be on top was actually the one available, then it simply means that the LUCK unfolded as the odds said they likely would. 

 

As far as Nelson, and I make this point.  My lack of enthusiasm at the time and now is in this specific context of roster construction.  At the time, we devoted pick 6 right after taking a FS with 15 and a C with 18.  If we took more traditionally impactful positions with the previous picks, say CB Marlon Humphrey at 15 rather than the FS, taking a G at 6 becomes a better overall strategy than what is was, IMO.  The way it is now, it could turn into a situation where a team is now starving for playmakers, but the card game falls against us right at the wrong time and we can't find any.     

[LiveAndLetAddai]

  Threads like this tell me that the season needs to start already, lol!  Go Colts!

[jskinnz]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Interesting.   Moore, but for some odd reason, not Buckner?     That’s a head scratcher for me…. 

 
Buckner is a given. Said so in my first post on this. I was just thinking about other players who may already have or could ascend. 

[NewColtsFan]

On 9/7/2021 at 5:22 AM, DougDew said:

Ok, heading down a tangent.  The point is that Troy was a very talented player who also played FS.  NCF brought up Troy in the context of our Pick15 FS.  Not the same player at all, and it was never thought to be.  

Hooker may not have been in the same class as Troy….  I wasn’t making that argument.

 

But he was widely called the best FS since Ed Reed, a span of 15 years.   So he was considered an exceptionally good prospect and worthy of his 15th overall pick.   That was my argument.