Colts 2021 Salary Cap Forecast/Discussion **Updated pg 6**

[TimetobringDfence!]

Wouldn't be surprised if Houston is gone after this year. We'll need to release some aging vets to sign our own and make room for signing Leonard and Nelson. It's also nice to be under a bit so young hungry players have a reason to bring their A game. Mack should be gone too, why pay him when we have Taylor, Hines, and Wilkins on the cheap. I'm even okay with letting Phil walk if he wants too much and let Eason have at it.

[dw49]

On 12/27/2020 at 8:10 AM, w87r said:

Potential good news in salary cap floor.

 

https://nfltraderumors.co/nfl-expected-to-approve-17-game-season-in-2021-could-boost-cap-above-175m-floor/

 

 

We shall see.

 

 

Is it really "good news" other than for the few teams that are right on the cap for 2021.  My thinking is that with every team getting more money to spend , it really only benefits the players as the salaries are then inflated.

[w87r]

https://football.realgm.com/wiretap/45336/NFL-Attendance-Drops-From-17M-In-2019-To-1M-In-2020

 

This is the not so good news. Actual numbers to put on the loss of revenue.

 

$16m fewer fans in attendance, at an average price of $102.35 ticket in 2019.

 

Total losses $1.637B/32 teams = $51.2m per team.

 

Those number are not good, makes me think the cap floor will be really close to that initial $175m

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193425/average-ticket-price-in-the-nfl-since-2006/

 

11 hours ago, dw49 said:

 

 

Is it really "good news" other than for the few teams that are right on the cap for 2021.  My thinking is that with every team getting more money to spend , it really only benefits the players as the salaries are then inflated.

Yes if the cap goes up higher than that cap floor, it is good news for all parties involved.

[w87r]

All these PS elevations and 53 man signings keep eating into the carryover $.

 

 

Right now we look to be around $64m cap space next year based on $175m cap minimum floor.

[w87r]

The majority of those teams have their QB or are in top of draft to draft next QB and will be on rookie contract. So we are kind of caught in between rock and hard place, because we are looking to compete and only have Eason figured onto that cap space.

 

Team cap space/ qb situation.

1. Jacksonville - will draft QB in top 2 picks most likely.

2. NYJ - Have Darnold/ or will likely be drafting QB with top 2 pick

3. Indy - Only Eason(we are actually number 4 behind NE now with Grover deal)

4. NE - similar situation to us,  but already have 4 more players than us locked up next year

5. Washington - QB situation unsettled, but have 5 more players than us locked up.

6. Cincy - Have their QB situation taken care of and on rookie deal.

7. Miami - Have QB situation taken care of and on rookie deal

8. Dallas - will likely have top 5 pick, possibly draft a qb/not sure how they afford Dak, tbh. He would take up most of their cap space(could see him wind up in Jacksonville)

9. LAC - have QB situation taken care of and on rookie deal

10. TB - Have Brady under contract already for next year.

11. Baltimore - QB situation taken care of and under contract

12. CLE - have QB taken care of and under contract

13. Carolina - have QB taken care of and under contract

14. SF - Has Jimmy under contract or could cut him loose and save $24m in cap space next year.

15. Arizona - has QB situation taken care of and on rookie deal

16. Denver - have QB situation taken care of and on rookie deal(imagine they will roll woth Lock for a little bit)

17. NYG - have QB situation taken care of and on rookie deal

18. Seattle - have QB under contract and taken care of

19. TEN - have QB taken care of and under contract.

20. Buffalo - has QB situation taken care of and on rookie deal

 

 

Only going to list top 20, but only 3 teams other than us dont have QB situation taken care of and 2 of those teams have similar cap space to us and more players already signed.

 

 

Reposting this because it has been a topic of discussion in another thread.

[w87r]

Contracts for teams around us in cap space, that can be cut to add more space.

 

Pulled some names from this article(as Im no expert on other teams, or this team for that matter) and listed other potentials.

 

http://brooklynbeat.nyc/predicting-2021s-nfl-cap-casualties/

 

 

Jacksonville:

Tyler Eifert $5m cap relief

Other vet options as well

Jets:

Crowder $10.5m cap relief(not even saying he is bad deal, but could clear a lot more space)

Anderson $8m cap relief

Other vet options as well

Patriots:

Gilmore $10m cap relief(been rumors already they could move on, i jury doesn't help his case)

Edelman $4m cap relief(again jist saying the option is there, had a lot of injuries and inst the same without Brady)

Slater $2.65m cap relief

Other vet options as well

Colts:

Doyle $4.35m cap relief

Glow $5m cap relief(not realistic, just saying 1 of 2 options)

Literally no other options to clear significant cap space

Bengals:

Atkins $9m cap relief(Again not saying they will, but options)

Uzumah $5m cap relief

Bernard $4m cap relief

Finney $3.5m cap relief

Redskins:

Bostic $2m cap relief

Smith $14m cap relief(again just a possibility)

Other potential options

Dolphins:

Davis $2.5m cap relief

Grant $3m cap relief

McClain $5.7m relief

Other potential options

Buccaneers:

Jensen $10m relief

Smith $14m relief

Brate $6.5m relief

Chargers:

Hayward $9.75m relief

Turner $11.5m relief

49ers:

Garoppolo $23.4m(if they choose to go another direction)

Ford $6.4m relief

Richberg $4.8m relief

Browns:

Beckham $3m relief

Richardson $12m relief

Njoku $6m relief

Ravens:

Ingram $5m relief

Peters $9.5m relief(not likely but option)

Williams $7.5m relief(not likely but option)

Boyle $5m relief

Cowboys:

Brown $2.75m relief

Jarwin $1.5m relief

Not to many options(Possibly Tryon for $5m relief, not likely though)

Cardinals:

Pugh $7.25m relief

Alford $7.5m relief

Hicks $3m relief

Broncos:

Miller $18m cap relief

Bouye $13.4m cap relief

Casey $11.8m cap relief

 

 

 

 

Only going to go through top 15 as these are teams that currently have around $20m and more.

 

Some names on here and not listed could also be restructured to clear more space as well.

 

Will probably be a historic year for the amount of restructures that will occur.

 

Colts really only have 1 guy that can clear them money on restructure(Kelly; $6.75m relied in 2021)

 

 

Just wanted to go through this to show some guys that could be shed to increase cap space. Broncos 3 alone would clear them $40m+, getting them to around $60m in space.

[Zoltan]

 

6 hours ago, w87r said:

Agree/disagree it really doesn't matter. I came with facts.

 

Less bad contracts also means less options to free up space, Like other teams will have, not referring to teams over the cap either, talking about teams around us on the cap list, to move us down the list.

 

I said we are in better shape than a lot of teams. Just not as great as it is perceived.

 

If Rivers takes a discount it will still be in $18-$20m range, which would drop cap space to little over $44m to sign 23 more players. Not including practice squad($1.5m) and in season spending(($5-$8m). If we go another Veteran option it will most likely be $20-$25m.

 

Cheap option like Eason? that isn't very comforting for a team looking to compete and if we have to do that, wouldn't that tell you we are worried about cap space and had to sacrifice somewhere? Only cheap option that makes sense is taking a flier on Darnold.

 

So again, agree or disagree I provided context to why things are not as "great" as they seem.(top 5 in cap space). Acknowledged we are in better shape than a lot of teams still. Broke down QB situations reasoning and how many players teams have under contracts and lack of options to free up space for us.

 

 

You provided a possibility of going with a cheap QB option, which would lean more to proving my point, and talked about teams that are no where around us on cap space list. Also teams with more bad contracts, which could be severed to clear more space. Which also proves my point.

 

I will delve deeper into other teams around us with bad contracts that can clear more space and post in the salary cap thread. If you care to continue discussion.

 

 

This isn't a rebuke of Ballard, he has done a great job, but covid did a number on what we could of did next year(being in good shape) with the cap potentially being at $220-$230m instead of $175 range. We could afforded to re-sign our depth, take care of QB and add a few pieces. Now we are looking at keeping QB and a few of our depth pieces while not being able to add much else to the puzzle unless we go with cheap option at QB, which again isn't very comforting for a team that is in a compete now window.

 

 

-As we all know the QB situation will decide a lot of things, I more mentioned Eason as the cheap option if they believe he is a Franchise player, not as a "let's go cheap for the sake of being cheap" option. I also don't dispute the numbers that you have given.

 

-By bad contracts I'm talking about the ones that have high dead money not ones that have outs, which I woudnt consider bad since they have outs.

 

-Fundamentally I think we just think the offseason will go different, I expect a lot of players to be looking for cheap short term contracts, since their won't be much competition in Free Agency because every team will be having a hard time making cap room, therefore we will be able to fill our roster with cheap deals.

 

- I mention the Eagles and the Saints because they will have to cut decent to good players which will add to FA

 

I think we will have to agree to disagree because I think we agree about the facts but just disagree in Point of View.

 

[aceman16]

Thoughts on bringing in Garrapolo and drafting a 2nd/3rd round qb to develop? I can't imagine Garrapolo will require too much and would probably be a nice plug and play while a qb develops behind him.

[ThorstenDenmark]

On 11/29/2020 at 1:20 AM, w87r said:

After the signing of Grover, the Colts are left with around $65-$67m in cap space for 2021. Based on $175m floor the league has said would be maximum drop.

 

$65-$67m:

 

Draft picks - $5-$7m

 

$60m left.

 

FAs:(23)

Rivers

Brissett

Mack

Hilton

Marcus Johnson

D. Harris - ERFA

Dulin - ERFA

Z Pascal - RFA

Burton 

Cox - ERFA

Chaz Green

L. Clark

J. Houston

D. Autry

Muhammad

Stallworth - RFA

Walker Jr

X Rhodes

Carrie

T. Smith - RFA

Hooker

T Wilson

Odum - RFA

Ballard know how to manage the cap situation, so I think we are in a good place cap wise.

 

Hilton will be extended and he might be willing to make a team friendly deal.

 

Mack - well, It depends on how much we actually need him next season, now Taylor is our feature back. So I don't think he will be resigned.

 

Houston - Would love us to resign him, but it will depend on how much he wants.

 

Rivers and Brisette will both be gone, as I honestly think Rivers retires and Brisette will test free agency.

 

Hooker - Gone

 

Pascal, Burton, Green... and the rest... well, team friendly deals or gone.

 

[NewColtsFan]

On 1/5/2021 at 7:53 PM, aceman16 said:

Thoughts on bringing in Garrapolo and drafting a 2nd/3rd round qb to develop? I can't imagine Garrapolo will require too much and would probably be a nice plug and play while a qb develops behind him.

It’s my understanding that Garoppolo still has 2-3 years left on his deal.   But it’s for a lot of money.   The last story I read, the 49ers would like to keep Jimmy G but bring him back at a more team friendly number.  And JG is reportedly open to re-working his contract.  Win-win for both sides. 

[GoColts8818]

On 1/5/2021 at 10:53 PM, aceman16 said:

Thoughts on bringing in Garrapolo and drafting a 2nd/3rd round qb to develop? I can't imagine Garrapolo will require too much and would probably be a nice plug and play while a qb develops behind him.

If you are going to do that you already have the QB to develop in Eason.  I don’t see the Colts trading for a vet AND drafting another QB.

[aceman16]

11 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

If you are going to do that you already have the QB to develop in Eason.  I don’t see the Colts trading for a vet AND drafting another QB.

I guess I am not sold on Eason but I can understand those who are.

[w87r]

16 minutes ago, aceman16 said:

I guess I am not sold on Eason but I can understand those who are.

I don't think anyone is sold on Eason as it's impossible to be. We haven't seen anything, either way. The team did keep a spot on the roster for him all season though, so that leads to the team must think they see something.

 

 

That doesn't mean he can be or can't be. No way anyone outside organization to have an opinion.

 

Would be nice if he can, time will tell.

 

[GoColts8818]

20 minutes ago, aceman16 said:

I guess I am not sold on Eason but I can understand those who are.

I am not sold on him either but they aren’t going to draft another QB to develop with him AND trade for a vet.  That’s too much capital in a position only one guy can play.

[AustexColt]

In Ballard I trust. That is all that is necessary. I honestly believe that the scouts, coaches and Reich will provide the best insights on who we should retain. They were the teachers and weekly evaluators. They did a great job this year and that earned my respect and confidence. 

 

If we want to just speculate who we should keep, I vote for Mack if hehas fully recovered.  AC, Houston, Autry and Xavier Rhodes for another year. Whether they agree that is another story.

[Superman]

On 1/8/2021 at 11:23 PM, NewColtsFan said:

It’s my understanding that Garoppolo still has 2-3 years left on his deal.   But it’s for a lot of money.   The last story I read, the 49ers would like to keep Jimmy G but bring him back at a more team friendly number.  And JG is reportedly open to re-working his contract.  Win-win for both sides. 

 

JG's contract would be simple to absorb, it's basically $25m/year for two years. If the Niners rework him, it will probably be an extension, not just a reduction. He hits FA at 31. 

 

I would think the Niners just play out 2021, see if he can stay healthy and play well, then work on an extension prior to his final year in 2022. JMO. 

 

They could also do what the Eagles did and draft a QB this year. They're cap situation and obligation to JB is much more favorable than Philly's/Wentz. So if JG isn't great or isn't healthy in 2021, they can bench him, move on to the new guy, and move on from JG in 2022 (cut, trade, whatever, his contract is really simple at this point). 

 

Of course, if they're done with him, they can cut or trade him whenever they want. Cap penalty in 2021 would be just $2.8m, and they'd save about $24m on the 2021 cap.

[TimetobringDfence!]

On 1/3/2021 at 10:58 AM, w87r said:

Contracts for teams around us in cap space, that can be cut to add more space.

 

Pulled some names from this article(as Im no expert on other teams, or this team for that matter) and listed other potentials.

 

http://brooklynbeat.nyc/predicting-2021s-nfl-cap-casualties/

 

 

Jacksonville:

Tyler Eifert $5m cap relief

Other vet options as well

Jets:

Crowder $10.5m cap relief(not even saying he is bad deal, but could clear a lot more space)

Anderson $8m cap relief

Other vet options as well

Patriots:

Gilmore $10m cap relief(been rumors already they could move on, i jury doesn't help his case)

Edelman $4m cap relief(again jist saying the option is there, had a lot of injuries and inst the same without Brady)

Slater $2.65m cap relief

Other vet options as well

Colts:

Doyle $4.35m cap relief

Glow $5m cap relief(not realistic, just saying 1 of 2 options)

Literally no other options to clear significant cap space

Bengals:

Atkins $9m cap relief(Again not saying they will, but options)

Uzumah $5m cap relief

Bernard $4m cap relief

Finney $3.5m cap relief

Redskins:

Bostic $2m cap relief

Smith $14m cap relief(again just a possibility)

Other potential options

Dolphins:

Davis $2.5m cap relief

Grant $3m cap relief

McClain $5.7m relief

Other potential options

Buccaneers:

Jensen $10m relief

Smith $14m relief

Brate $6.5m relief

Chargers:

Hayward $9.75m relief

Turner $11.5m relief

49ers:

Garoppolo $23.4m(if they choose to go another direction)

Ford $6.4m relief

Richberg $4.8m relief

Browns:

Beckham $3m relief

Richardson $12m relief

Njoku $6m relief

Ravens:

Ingram $5m relief

Peters $9.5m relief(not likely but option)

Williams $7.5m relief(not likely but option)

Boyle $5m relief

Cowboys:

Brown $2.75m relief

Jarwin $1.5m relief

Not to many options(Possibly Tryon for $5m relief, not likely though)

Cardinals:

Pugh $7.25m relief

Alford $7.5m relief

Hicks $3m relief

Broncos:

Miller $18m cap relief

Bouye $13.4m cap relief

Casey $11.8m cap relief

 

 

 

 

Only going to go through top 15 as these are teams that currently have around $20m and more.

 

Some names on here and not listed could also be restructured to clear more space as well.

 

Will probably be a historic year for the amount of restructures that will occur.

 

Colts really only have 1 guy that can clear them money on restructure(Kelly; $6.75m relied in 2021)

 

 

Just wanted to go through this to show some guys that could be shed to increase cap space. Broncos 3 alone would clear them $40m+, getting them to around $60m in space.

I think we should consider  Ryan Kelly restructure. Hes the top paid center and definately not performing that way.

[w87r]

3 minutes ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

I think we should consider  Ryan Kelly restructure. Hes the top paid center and definately not performing that way.

We should definitely consider the Kelly restructure and I'm sure we will, but lets not act like the guy isn't an All-Pro. He is one of the best centers in the game.

[TimetobringDfence!]

12 minutes ago, w87r said:

We should definitely consider the Kelly restructure and I'm sure we will, but lets not act like the guy isn't an All-Pro. He is one of the best centers in the game.

I agree hes very good and a big part of our successful line.

[w87r]

Update on current Colts Cap Space:(post AC retiring)

 

Top 51:$69.7m**

 

Overall:$63.6m

 

Colts have 58 players under contract now.(future contracts signed this week.)

 

So from here on every signing will be reduced by lowest salary on the books(which is currently $780k) for top 51 purposes. As long as salary is above $780k threshold.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/cap/2021/

Has Sam Jones listed twice so I subtracted his cap number and roster spot.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/2021/

Same as link above(Sam Jones)

 

Other potential ways to free up additional cap space:

Restructure Kelly -$6.75m 2021 savings

Release Doyle - $4.35m 2021 cap savings

 

Totaling $11.1m in potential 2021 cap savings.

 

**pending - as rollover amount is to high right now I believe(around $500-$600k to high), and Dulin and Stallworth extensions not listed yet.

[w87r]

Top 51 Cap Space:$69.7m

 

FAs:(20)

Rivers

Brissett

Mack

Hilton

Marcus Johnson

Z Pascal - RFA

Burton 

Cox - ERFA

Chaz Green

L. Clark

J. Houston

D. Autry

Muhammad

Walker Jr

X Rhodes

Carrie

T. Smith - RFA

Hooker

T Wilson

Odum - RFA

 

Extensions:(figures not released or included in cap space now.)

Stallworth - RFA - TBD

Dulin - ERFA - probably $700k range

[w87r]

Positional Groups Under Contract:(Amount of Cap for Position)

Offense:($73,123,312

QB:($963,066)

Jacob Eason

RB:($6,220,802)

Jonathan Taylor

Nyheim Hines

Jordan Wilkins

Paul Perkins

Darius Anderson

Bennie Lemay

WR:($6,172,347)

Michael Pittman Jr

Parris Campbell

Dezmon Patmon

De'Michael Harris

Quartney Davis

Gary Jennings

Ashton Dulin(TBD)

TE:($8,990,000)

Jack Doyle 

Jordan Thomas

Noah Togiai

Andrew Vollert

Farrod Green

OT:($3,728,903)

Braden Smith

Casey Tucker

Carter O'Donnal

*Jake Benzinger(TBD)

*Elijah Nkansah(TBD)

OG:($16,988,194)

Quentin Nelson

Mark Glowinski

Will Holden

Danny Pinter

Jake Eldrenkamp

OC:($15,500,000)

Ryan Kelly

Sam Jones

 

Defense:($54,730,737)

DE:($3,281,630)

Kemoko Turay

Ben Banogu

DT:($27,595,200)

DeForest Buckner

Grover Stewart

Tyquan Lewis

Chris Williams

Rod Windsor

Taylor Stallworth(TBD)

LB:($7,848,766)

Darius Leonard

Bobby Okereke

Matthew Adams

Zaire Franklin

EJ Speed

Skai Moore

Jordan Glasgow

CB:($11,777,354)

Kenny Moore

Rock Ya-Sin

Marvin Tell III

Nick Nelson

Isaiah Rodgers

Andre Chachere

Will Sunderland

*Anthony Chesley(TBD)

S:($4,713,787)

Julian Blackmon

Khari Willis

Ibraheim Campbell

Roderic Teamer

Roland Milligan

 

SPT:($4,626,666)

Rigoberto Sanchez

Luke Rhodes

Austin Rekhow

Rodrigo Blankenship

[Four2itus]

3 hours ago, w87r said:

Offense:($73,123,312)

QB:($963,066)

That is certainly a unique situation. Cannot ever remember such a breakdown. 

[harrisoncolts88]

I'm definitely no guru on cap numbers and come here to see what others offer, to help further my learning. But when talking about compensatory picks from the previous years free agent signings, how do people see this unique upcoming free agency in regards of salary cap, affect it in 2022? Because we already know some teams have low cap numbers (Colts being one of them), but definitely have to plan out this year but the next several years (who knows, maybe the cap will be set a some minimum again). Is this a case where we will see lower salary contracts, so therefore the compensatory pick reward will not be as great? Again, asking because I would love to learn more on these matters

[w87r]

41 minutes ago, harrisoncolts88 said:

I'm definitely no guru on cap numbers and come here to see what others offer, to help further my learning. But when talking about compensatory picks from the previous years free agent signings, how do people see this unique upcoming free agency in regards of salary cap, affect it in 2022? Because we already know some teams have low cap numbers (Colts being one of them), but definitely have to plan out this year but the next several years (who knows, maybe the cap will be set a some minimum again). Is this a case where we will see lower salary contracts, so therefore the compensatory pick reward will not be as great? Again, asking because I would love to learn more on these matters

Great question to be honest. I think it will be just as you have stated. I think the big names will still get teams a 3rd-4th round comp pick. At the same time though, I think more 6th and 7th will be prominent next year. There will be a lot of 1 year deals that will be lower and equal each other out.

 

I also feel that this will most likely be a 2yr thing in regards to cap. I expect it to go up a little bit next year, not back to where it should be with no Covid but an increase from wherever it is set this year.

 

 

Saying all that eventually it will come around and all the 1 year low signings will turn into bigger deals raising the comp picks back up. On the same note there though, there will be more bigger deals and some of those will equal each other out.

 

Juat my opinion though. Would love to hear what others including @Superman thinks.

[w87r]

53 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

That is certainly a unique situation. Cannot ever remember such a breakdown. 

Yeah it looks pretty wild now. We shall see how it changes.

 

Will we go young and keep that number under say $5m or keep Rivers/or other vet and get to around $25m?

 

Cant wait to see the answer to this question.

[Superman]

5 hours ago, w87r said:

Great question to be honest. I think it will be just as you have stated. I think the big names will still get teams a 3rd-4th round comp pick. At the same time though, I think more 6th and 7th will be prominent next year. There will be a lot of 1 year deals that will be lower and equal each other out.

 

I also feel that this will most likely be a 2yr thing in regards to cap. I expect it to go up a little bit next year, not back to where it should be with no Covid but an increase from wherever it is set this year.

 

 

Saying all that eventually it will come around and all the 1 year low signings will turn into bigger deals raising the comp picks back up. On the same note there though, there will be more bigger deals and some of those will equal each other out.

 

Juat my opinion though. Would love to hear what others including @Superman thinks.

 

They give out 32 comp picks each year. They rank the qualifying free agents using a point system (based on the contract details and other factors), then separate them into tiers based on percentile. The top five percent account for third round comp picks, and so on. (Great write up on OTC: https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/) 

 

So even if this year yields fewer big contracts and less money paid to free agents, it shouldn't have a significant impact on the comp pick results, unless there are fewer than 32 qualifying free agents to switch teams. Maybe instead of six third round comp picks, there's only three or four.

 

I want to point out that the 2021 comp picks are based on 2020 free agency. So the comp picks for 2022 will be the ones affected by 2021 free agency. Also want to point out that the team signing a qualifying free agent isn't losing a draft pick. They might not qualify for a comp pick if their gained FAs cancel out their lost FAs, but they aren't surrendering any of their normal picks by signing qualifying FAs.

 

As for the cap floor, the NFL did this same thing in 2011. They agreed to a new CBA that resulted in a reduced salary cap; in 2009, the cap was $123m, in 2010 it was uncapped (part of the previous CBA), and the cap in 2011 went down to $120m. It would have gone down further, but they borrowed from future expected revenue to boost the 2011 salary cap. There were small cap increases in subsequent seasons -- $120.6m in 2012, $123m in 2013 -- and then once they had paid back the borrowed cap space, there was a big boost in 2014 to $133m. 

 

What they've done now is set a salary cap floor of $175m in 2021, no matter what happens to revenue. We'll see what happens to revenue from 2020, and their projections for 2021, but I think it's likely that the 2022 cap will be depressed due to 2021 revenues being used to offset the lost revenue from 2020, then in 2023 the cap will start increasing dramatically like they expected.

 

I could be wrong, because unlike in 2011, the players' revenue split was increased, not decreased. So there might be less of an overall hit to the salary cap (percentage wise). There are new TV deals on the way, and there was a recent report that the 2021 cap might not drop as much as initially expected (maybe $195m, not $175m). 

[w87r]

4 hours ago, Superman said:

 

They give out 32 comp picks each year. They rank the qualifying free agents using a point system (based on the contract details and other factors), then separate them into tiers based on percentile. The top five percent account for third round comp picks, and so on. (Great write up on OTC: https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-methodology-of-projecting-the-nfls-compensatory-draft-picks/) 

 

So even if this year yields fewer big contracts and less money paid to free agents, it shouldn't have a significant impact on the comp pick results, unless there are fewer than 32 qualifying free agents to switch teams. Maybe instead of six third round comp picks, there's only three or four.

 

I want to point out that the 2021 comp picks are based on 2020 free agency. So the comp picks for 2022 will be the ones affected by 2021 free agency. Also want to point out that the team signing a qualifying free agent isn't losing a draft pick. They might not qualify for a comp pick if their gained FAs cancel out their lost FAs, but they aren't surrendering any of their normal picks by signing qualifying FAs.

 

As for the cap floor, the NFL did this same thing in 2011. They agreed to a new CBA that resulted in a reduced salary cap; in 2009, the cap was $123m, in 2010 it was uncapped (part of the previous CBA), and the cap in 2011 went down to $120m. It would have gone down further, but they borrowed from future expected revenue to boost the 2011 salary cap. There were small cap increases in subsequent seasons -- $120.6m in 2012, $123m in 2013 -- and then once they had paid back the borrowed cap space, there was a big boost in 2014 to $133m. 

 

What they've done now is set a salary cap floor of $175m in 2021, no matter what happens to revenue. We'll see what happens to revenue from 2020, and their projections for 2021, but I think it's likely that the 2022 cap will be depressed due to 2021 revenues being used to offset the lost revenue from 2020, then in 2023 the cap will start increasing dramatically like they expected.

 

I could be wrong, because unlike in 2011, the players' revenue split was increased, not decreased. So there might be less of an overall hit to the salary cap (percentage wise). There are new TV deals on the way, and there was a recent report that the 2021 cap might not drop as much as initially expected (maybe $195m, not $175m). 

Thanks, yeah know ot is based off prior years FAs. 

 

 

Was just curious as to how you thought it would affect how high the Comp picks might be. Which you did in the 2nd paragraph. I agree, I still think there will be a few 3rds but overall I think there will be more later round comp picks.

 

 

I haven't seen this $195m number, I know they are hoping it doesn't fall all the way to the cap floor $175m, but haven't seen a number they were thinking? Someones speculation or NFL release?

 

I do know that the NFL lost 16m in fan attendance(people not $), which equated to about $50m+ per team. With cap dropping $24m($175m floor), that would cover less than half of cash shortage.

 

 

I don't anticipate it being much higher than the $175m this year, $195m would be nice though.

[Superman]

4 hours ago, w87r said:

Thanks, yeah know ot is based off prior years FAs. 

 

 

Was just curious as to how you thought it would affect how high the Comp picks might be. Which you did in the 2nd paragraph. I agree, I still think there will be a few 3rds but overall I think there will be more later round comp picks.

 

 

I haven't seen this $195m number, I know they are hoping it doesn't fall all the way to the cap floor $175m, but haven't seen a number they were thinking? Someones speculation or NFL release?

 

I do know that the NFL lost 16m in fan attendance(people not $), which equated to about $50m+ per team. With cap dropping $24m($175m floor), that would cover less than half of cash shortage.

 

 

I don't anticipate it being much higher than the $175m this year, $195m would be nice though.

 

The $195m is speculative reporting, I think it started with Florio.

[The Fish]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

The $195m is speculative reporting, I think it started with Florio.

No way! 

Mike says he's "just the facts ma'am". 

 

The dollar amount isn't the issue, it's the flexibility going forward, but I think we all know that Ballard isn't going to hand out a big contract to an older dude. At some point, contracts are going to be paid, I'm just curious if the QB of the future is here, starting on a rookie deal when that happens. 

[Dark Superman]

I expect the Colts to use the 5th year option on Nelson, allowing them more time to lock up Leonard and Smith.

[Dark Superman]

With guys like Nelson, Leonard, and Smith in their rookie contract and all the free agents the Colts have in 2021, you think they would have more cap space available. Especially knowing Jacob Eason is the only rookie under contract through 2021.

[csmopar]

5 hours ago, BillCoslosky87 said:

With guys like Nelson, Leonard, and Smith in their rookie contract and all the free agents the Colts have in 2021, you think they would have more cap space available. Especially knowing Jacob Eason is the only rookie under contract through 2021.

We have the 2nd most capspace in the league with almost a dozen teams at or over the cap. This after suffering a 30 million dollar cap hit due to Covid that no one for saw coming just a year ago. 
 

id say we’ve done pretty well. Especially given that we carried Lucks salary thru 2019 of 25 million. 

[Fluke_33]

On 1/12/2021 at 6:48 AM, TimetobringDfence! said:

I think we should consider  Ryan Kelly restructure. Hes the top paid center and definately not performing that way.

 

On 1/12/2021 at 6:54 AM, w87r said:

We should definitely consider the Kelly restructure and I'm sure we will, but lets not act like the guy isn't an All-Pro. He is one of the best centers in the game.

im not a cap guy so forgive me if this is ignorant but didn’t he just sign an extension at the start of this season?  Why would he restructure?  Why would the colts negotiate it the way they did only to want it changed the very next year.  It doesn’t make sense to me. 

[TimetobringDfence!]

9 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

 

im not a cap guy so forgive me if this is ignorant but didn’t he just sign an extension at the start of this season?  Why would he restructure?  Why would the colts negotiate it the way they did only to want it changed the very next year.  It doesn’t make sense to me. 

I'm not a cap expert either, but I know they like Kelly and he cam off a good season last year and they rewarded him I guess. He is the top paid center now, but did not play to that level at all this season.

[w87r]

31 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

 

im not a cap guy so forgive me if this is ignorant but didn’t he just sign an extension at the start of this season?  Why would he restructure?  Why would the colts negotiate it the way they did only to want it changed the very next year.  It doesn’t make sense to me. 

 

20 minutes ago, TimetobringDfence! said:

I'm not a cap expert either, but I know they like Kelly and he cam off a good season last year and they rewarded him I guess. He is the top paid center now, but did not play to that level at all this season.

It would be to save cap space in 2021 with the cap dropping.

 

When you convert the base salary to essentially a signing bonus it gives cap relief for that upcoming season, but spreads it over the rest of contract, up to 5 years.

 

 

So an example:

 

Ryan Kelly:

 

Has a base of $10m next season and 4 years left of deal.

 

The base can only drop to vet minimum. We will use $1m for this example, so:

 

Ryan Kelly current contract:

2021 - $10m base, $4.65m roster bonus(which is guaranteed next year) = $14.65m cap hit.

2022 - $7.5m base, = $7.5m cap hit

2023 - $9.125m base, $1m roster bonus(not guaranteed) = $10.125m cap hit

2024 - $11.375m base, $1m roster bonus(not guaranteed) = $12.375m cap hit.

 

So right now, Kelly has no guaranteed money after 2021.

 

Ryan Kelly restructured contract:

2021 - $1m base, $4.65m roster bonus, $2.25m signing bonus = $7.9m cap hit( cap savings of $6.75m in 2021)

2022 - $7.5m base, $2.25m signing bonus = $9.75m cap hit

2023 - $9.125m base, , $1m roster bonus, $2.25m signing bonus = $12.375m cap hit

2024 - $11.375m base, $1m roster bonus, $2.25m signing bonus = $14.625m cap hit.

 

 

This would give Kelly 6.75m guaranteed money(maybe more if we guarantee some of 2022 base, which probably would need to) after 2021 and the Colts an additional $6.75m in cap space to use this year.

 

 

He would receive a $9m check when he restructures but for cap purposes it would be spread over those 4 years. If the team wanted they could even guarantee a partial amount of 2022 base as incentive for making the deal. 

 

 

Doing so.would still allow us to get out of contract relatively easy after 2022 if he got injured or something.

[Fluke_33]

2 minutes ago, w87r said:

 

It would be to save cao space in 2021 with the cap dropping.

 

When you convert the base salary to essentially a signing bonus it gives cap relief for that upcoming season, but spreads it over the rest of contract, up to 5 years.

 

 

So an example:

 

Ryan Kelly:

 

Has a base of $10m next season and 4 years left of deal.

 

The base can only drop to vet minimum. We will use $1m for this example, so:

 

Ryan Kelly current contract:

2021 - $10m base, $4.65m roster bonus(which is guaranteed next year) = $14.65m cap hit.

2022 - $7.5m base, = $7.5m cap hit

2023 - $9.125m base, $1m roster bonus(not guaranteed) = $10.125m cap hit

2024 - $11.375m base, $1m roster bonus(not guaranteed) = $12.375m cap hit.

 

So right now, Kelly has no guaranteed money after 2021.

 

Ryan Kelly restructured contract:

2021 - $1m base, $4.65m roster bonus, $2.25m signing bonus = $7.9m cap hit( cap savings of $6.75m in 2021)

2022 - $7.5m base, $2.25m signing bonus = $9.75m cap hit

2023 - $9.125m base, , $1m roster bonus, $2.25m signing bonus = $12.375m cap hit

2024 - $11.375m base, $1m roster bonus, $2.25m signing bonus = $14.625m cap hit.

 

 

This would give Kelly 6.75m guaranteed money after 2021 and the Colts an additional $6.75m in cpa space to use this year.

 

 

He would receive a $9m check when he restructures but for cap purposes it would be spread over those 4 years. If the team wanted they could even guarantee a partial amount of 2022 base as incentive for making the deal. 

But when they drafted the contract they already knew these things. It was signed right before the season and in the middle of the pandemic.  I’m sure they were aware the cap may drop 

 

I don’t mean to be argumentative but the timing doesn’t make any sense to me 

[w87r]

1 minute ago, Fluke_33 said:

But when they drafted the contract they already knew these things. It was signed right before the season and in the middle of the pandemic.  I’m sure they were aware the cap may drop 

 

I don’t mean to be argumentative but the timing doesn’t make any sense to me 

restructures happen all the time after contracts are drawn up. One could argue with a base at $10m this year, that might even of been the plan when the created the contract, to give them some flexibility if cap dropped further than anticipated.

 

They knew the cap might drop, but not to what extent. It might not happen, it might, but it gives the Colts the option to gain nearly $7m in cap space this year if they need to, and options to gain cap space are few and far between.

 

Kelly restructure $6.75

Doyle Release - $4.35

 

$11.1m in cap savings

 

Only other option to gain more cap space would be Glowinski($5m range) and that doesn't make much sense.

[Fluke_33]

4 minutes ago, w87r said:

restructures happen all the time after contracts are drawn up. One could argue with a base at $10m this year, that might even of been the plan when the created the contract, to give them some flexibility if cap dropped further than anticipated.

 

They knew the cap might drop, but not to what extent. It might not happen, it might, but it gives the Colts the option to gain nearly $7m in cap space this year if they need to, and options to gain cap space are few and far between.

 

Kelly restructure $6.75

Doyle Release - $4.35

 

$11.1m in cap savings

 

Only other option to gain more cap space would be Glowinski($5m range) and that doesn't make much sense.

I don’t usually pay attention to contracts and medications of them and I’ll respect that you do but I would be very surprised if it is common or even often that they get restructured the year after they are drafted.  
 

ugh.  I may have to research this because now you’ve sparked my curiosity 

[w87r]

6 minutes ago, Fluke_33 said:

I don’t usually pay attention to contracts and medications of them and I’ll respect that you do but I would be very surprised if it is common or even often that they get restructured the year after they are drafted.  
 

ugh.  I may have to research this because now you’ve sparked my curiosity 

Restructures do happen in year after or 2 years into new deal all the time. There will be many restructures around the league this year(more than usual). It is all part of the Covid effect.

 

 

So any research prior to this year still wouldn't equate to what is needed around the league to make money work, this year. Teams will need to push money into future years.

 

Like I said though teams that are usually tight to the cap have to restructure guys contracts to give them more space. Happens every year, but this year is different for all involved.

 

 

Im not trying to be argumentative either, or even saying it is going to happen.  Just laying out the possibility and how it could help us.