Grades -- thru Week 12

[Superman]

I haven't been able to do weekly grades at all this season, just too much going on. However I have been keeping notes, rewatching games, etc., and I figured this extended week was a good time to dump some of those notes; I wanted to do this during the bye week, but didn't have the time. I'm going to use my typical grade format, for the most part.

 

Let's start with the offense.

 

Offense: 14th in yards/game (352.4), 11th in points/game (24.5), T-14th in turnovers (13), 10th in 3rd down % (42.5%), T-14th in 4th down % (53.8%), 2nd in red zone efficiency (68.6% TD rate), 11th most penalties (77), C-

 

QBs: The playmaker has returned, and despite some rough patches at times, he's just as good as always, better in some ways. He's done a good job of limiting turnovers, which is an improvement over his shortened 2015. He's just as fearless going down the field, fitting the ball in tight windows, hanging in the pocket until the last minute -- all the traits that make him such a dynamic playmaker. His accuracy seems improved, for the most part, especially when he has time, and when he's decisively moving outside the pocket. There are still some throws that sail, or wind up behind receivers, or come a little late, but those are mostly timing and/or footwork issues influenced by a crowded pocket. He's also been aggressive as a runner, but smart about getting down when the play is over (took a sharp hit near the goal line against the Titans, but he was trying to get a TD). He's been effective to all areas of the field as a passer, and without his play, the Colts would probably be winless this year. My only complaint is that he continues to hold the ball too long, but I believe that's a function of the play calling. To whatever extent Luck likes the hold the ball -- and he obviously does -- the coaches have to get the ball out of his hands more quickly through scheme, but more on that in coaching... Just a few words about Tolzien -- he showed against the Steelers that he's tough, he has some playmaking DNA to him, and he can put the ball in tight windows. I hate his delivery and mechanics, but he can push the ball down the field, unlike Hasselbeck and Whitehurst. He's a capable backup, for sure. B, the strength of the team, could be more efficient

 

Receivers: This unit was meant to be a strength of the team. They have not been. Hilton has been very good, but has had a few untimely drops that have marred his record, and he's been pretty nicked up throughout the season. Moncrief was hurt for a while, and his volume production hasn't been great, but he's still been productive, especially in the red zone, and he puts a scare into defenses. No one else has been consistent, including Dorsett, which is partly about coaching but also has to do with his own missteps at times, including some drops. Doyle has been a very pleasant surprise as probably the second best receiving option on the team so far, definitely the top TE, with Allen having a disappointing first half of the season. Again, drops have been brutal from one of the supposed leaders of the team. The backs have been okay as receivers, but haven't been weaponized as much as I would personally prefer, specifically on screens and angle routes. The hopeful gadget back -- Ferguson -- struggles in pass pro and can't run between the tackles, so his reps had to be purposeful, and they've disappeared entirely over the last month. I believe coaching to be a detriment to the passing game, to an extent, but the receivers have made things hard on themselves with some general sloppiness and lack of focus / intensity. C, not playing up to standard, have left a lot of plays on the field

 

Blocking: You'll notice a pattern when I say that I think the coaching hasn't helped the blocking. I'll also mention the impact that injuries have had, as the line seems to be shuffled every week. The run game has struggled to find any kind of rhythm, as there have been times where any semblance of offensive balance has gone out of the window earlier than necessary. Then other times, the line has seemed incapable of opening any running lanes for the backs. There are technical issues with individual blockers that seem to undermine potentially positive plays, and then there are overly complicated schemes that don't produce anything. Likewise in pass pro, there are individual issues and unit issues. Lots of inexperience and lack of cohesiveness on the OL. There's also a lack of focus among some of the veteran players (AC, Reitz). I think the two best lineups are capable of playing better than they have, but between injuries and some players playing below their capabilities, the protection hasn't been good. The line has given up multiple sacks in every game, and is on the way to 55 sacks this season, not to mention a ton of QB hits. Again, I think the passing concepts share a significant amount of blame, but the line definitely isn't protecting well. The backs have missed a lot of protections, and the TEs have been inconsistent in protection, including some major whiffs. D, no run game, poor protection, but I fully believe they can perform better

 

Offensive coaching: Okay, so I keep mentioning the coaching. If you've read any of my thoughts after games, you'll find these comments familiar. There is a glaring lack of short passing concepts from the Colts, and it's not a new thing. They've been working on the pick play and crossing stuff lately, but that takes timing, good ball placement, and sure-handed receivers. Hardly any screens, and it seems like 75% of their tries get blown up. Even fewer slants, and half of those get tipped at the line because they don't cut block the edge to clear the passing lane. There are other quick hitting concepts that lend themselves to high efficiency passing and generally help to make up for leaky pass blocking, and they just don't use them with any regularity. To me, this is unacceptable for a team with such a troubled pass pro unit. I like the general aggressiveness of the play calling, but it needs to be balanced with high efficiency play calling, and it's mostly not. The run game hasn't benefited either. Some of the run schemes seem overly complicated and slow to develop. To the positive, there have been some clever and timely play calls and schemes. The ability to threaten down the field is something that will always be a staple of any Andrew Luck offense, and the Colts have relied on that ability to establish themselves as an explosive offense. The coaching just needs to enhance the efficiency of the offense, and it's not doing that so far. C-, looking to maximize Luck's strengths, but not minimizing the weaknesses on the OL

 

Defense: 30th in yards allowed (395/game), 26th in points allowed (27.4/game), 27th in completion percentage against (66%),  T-32nd in yards/play (6.2, with Raiders), T-29th in takeaways (8, Jags the worst at 7), 25th on third down (43.1%), T-12th on 4th down (40%), T-30th most penalties (88),  D+

 

Run game: They've given up over 100 yards rushing in all but three games this season, including 158 to the Texans, in one of the sloppiest efforts with regard to run defense since the Patriots playoff games. In general, the run fits and edge play is decent, but there are 5-7 plays every game where the edge collapses, or the backers overpursue. And then there were more missed tackles in the first month than anyone cares to remember. It doesn't seem like there's anyone up front who can hold up against a double team, much less make a play. Henry Anderson is still not back to form, which shouldn't be surprising. More concerning to me than the DL though is the sloppy edge play and missed tackles. We need more talent and speed in the front, obviously, but simple execution would improve the run defense. They were extremely physical up front against the Chargers; it would be nice to see more of that. The safeties have mostly done a nice job in run support, but they've missed tackles as well. C-, too many missed opportunities

 

Pass rush: The most glaring weakness on the defense, on track for a paltry 32 sacks, and not a lot of pressures to make up for it. Walden has been relatively good, but is not a game changing pass rusher. Mathis has been MIA, the interior pressure almost never gets home, blitzes seem to be a half second late... I'm not going to spend a lot of words on this, it's obvious to everyone that without a premiere pass rusher, the Colts can't effectively pressure QBs. I will give credit for a couple of surprisingly effective games against the Titans and Packers. D, no consistent impact

 

Pass coverage: The coverage has been undermined by both injuries and an ineffective pass rush, but the somewhat passive approach at times has nullified any tandem effort with the pass rush. That passivity has kind of been necessary due to the injuries, though. Catch-22. Melvin has gotten some attention lately, mostly because he's long, athletic, aggressive and tough, but he struggles to mirror receivers, and he gets penalized too much. Davis hasn't been sharp, maybe due to injury, but also seemingly due to a lack of focus, IMO. Butler and Robinson haven't been good, and both have been injured also. The safeties have been decent, with Geathers coming on nicely lately, but he's also dealt with injuries, which have forced Green on the field more than is ideal. Green is full of unrealized potential, but just like at Clemson, he struggles to track the ball in the air, and continues to give up big plays because of it. The ILBs are no good in space, especially one on one coverage, and the middle of the field and the flats are basically a treasure trove for good offenses. The pass coverage has the potential to get better, based on some of the coaching they've been doing in recent weeks, but they've also given up some big games to very average QBs, so I'm not sure I can be too optimistic. C-, handicapped by the pass rush to an extent, but lots of blown coverages and mistakes

 

Defensive coaching: I think the coaching has been handcuffed by the injuries, especially in the secondary. Looking at the Green Bay game and some positive stretches in other games, I think I can see what they want to do defensively. They want to use multiple coverages, especially across the middle. They want to vary their blitzes and stay aggressive on the outside. They want to contain the edges and penetrate up front against the run. And the want to keep the ball in front of the deep safety. For the most part, this plays into the strengths of the defense. Where the scheme fails is when they get stretched out due to lack of edge containment, which leads to missed tackles and big plays. It also fails when they give up plays in the flats, again getting stretched out, which is a major problem for a defensive front lacking athleticism. Once they get stretched out, they back off, and then smart offenses attack short over and over again, including with power runs. It also doesn't help that there have been so many injuries. In general, the only answer is more athleticism. The defense has had some nice stretches, but without a stronger pass rush and better playmakers in the middle, they'll continue to get beat. The big mistakes don't help, either. C+, I see the vision, but the tools aren't there for it to come together

 

Special teams: 3rd in avg KO return (27.1 yards/return), 27th in avg punt return (6.4 yards/return), 1 return TD, 9th in avg KO return against (20.1 yards/return), 18th in avg punt return against (9.5 yards/return), zero return TDs allowed, zero blocked punts/kicks

 

Kicking/punting: AV has been money, and was on fire up until the miss against the Titans. He's never had a perfect season, and I feel bad for him because I don't think we should have kicked the FG against the Titans, the one he wound up missing. Anyways, he's been great, and I bet he has the misses out of his system. McAfee has continued to be a weapon, with the fake punt play, an onside kick converted, and generally good punting. The coverage has missed a couple opportunities to pin punts down inside the five, or else Pat's net average would be even better than it is (he's first in the league in gross and net). A, no complaints, best kicker/punter duo in the league

 

Returners: Several muffs and questionable returns so far. Bray being hurt hasn't helped, and they've cycled through a bunch of other players. Rogers seems to have settled into the punt return role, and kick returns aren't as tricky to field. Todman had the great return TD, and there have been a couple other big returns. It's been a few weeks since any egregious return mistakes. C, when in doubt, let it drop

 

Kickoff / punt coverage: Besides the aforementioned misses on downed punts, the coverage has been good in both areas. The punt return average is a little high, but that's due to a couple 20+ returns, nothing that got close to the end zone. The shorter kickoffs have been a mixed bag, but they used them effectively in the second Titans game, and covered them well. B

 

Special teams coaching: A, the tricks and proven effectiveness at recovering onside kicks is becoming a staple of the Colts' special teams units. All anyone talks about is the failed fake punt last season, but the Colts are dangerous on special teams, and every opponent knows it.

 

Game management: I like the aggressiveness in certain situations, including onside kicks and 4th down attempts. I think there was a missed 4th down opportunity against the Titans, and it might have hurt the team. The clock management at the end of the Lions game might have cost them the game. There's not much to say about challenges; Pagano is 2/3. Despite Pagano's willingness to go for it and call fakes, he still trends toward conservative decision making, especially when decisions have to be made quickly. 

 

Best offensive performers: Andrew Luck (makes everything go), Jack Doyle (very pleasant surprise, 2nd leading receiver)

Best defensive performers: Erik Walden (tone setter, leading in sacks), Clayton Geathers (at his best, a difference maker)

 

Most disappointing offensive players: Anthony Castonzo (should be a rock at LT, has been inconsistent and given up too many pressures/sacks), Dwayne Allen (too many drops)

Most disappointing defensive players: Vontae Davis (mostly dealing with injury, but has been beat too much), Robert Mathis (still doesn't have a solid sack, not closing well)

 

Projection: We're 5-6, which isn't good. I believe we've given away three games so far, but this team isn't a contender. The Texans aren't anything to be afraid of, so the division is still in play, but you figure they'd have to win out, and get some help since Houston has only 4 losses right now. Two division games to go, both at home, including Houston, but three road games -- Jets, Vikings and the AFC leading Raiders (I'll be at that game, by the way). The Jets are kind of a mess, and the Vikings have slowed down, but none of these games are gimmes. The Texans haven't quite hit their stride, either; I could see them playing better than they have so far. I'd put the Colts chances of making the playoffs at 25% right now. If I had to bet, I'd put money on another second place finish at 8-8.

 

GO COLTS!

 

[DougDew]

Good write up.  I think the assessment is spot on.  

 

I would add that the WRs, as a unit, have been the most dissappointing, IMO.  None seem to be much of a concern for a defense.  And the lack of a well-developed short passing game, going on several years and two OCs now, is also very dissappointing.  I have to wonder if it is a mix of the coaches, the WRs not being suited to short passing, and Luck not being great with ball placement on the crossing routes.

 

The defensive problems are well known.  It simply lacks talent, especially at all 4 LB spots.

 

The team is average, and injuries have piled on the issue.  I'm hoping for a 6-10 season and a chance to draft some LBs this spring.

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

You said halfway through the season but in reality, 11 games is much more than half in a 16 game season. we are what we are. 

 

Our coaching is just pure butt 

[OffensivelyPC]

Hard to argue with any of this really.  Not bleak, but far from encouraging. I was wondering when you'd finally post one of these.

 

On Davis' perceived lack of focus, this cropped up last year as well.  I dont want to make any accusations against the guy, but this isnt the first time we've had this discussion as a fan base that hes has injuries, lack of focus and at a time when the season isnt goung well. 

 

It wouldnt be the first time a football player took advantage of his situation, particularly when the postseason appears out of reach.  But it doesnt take a genius to understand pain can affect your ability to focus, especially when its pain in areas critical to performance (a split second of thought on how not to roll your ankle but still flip your hips is a split second missed on what your opponent is doing).

 

im not in the guys head, he's shown me enough good play i have no problem giving him the benefit of the doubt and im not saying you arent.  just kind of pointing out the similarities im recalling.

[21isSuperman]

1 hour ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Hard to argue with any of this really.  Not bleak, but far from encouraging. I was wondering when you'd finally post one of these.

 

On Davis' perceived lack of focus, this cropped up last year as well.  I dont want to make any accusations against the guy, but this isnt the first time we've had this discussion as a fan base that hes has injuries, lack of focus and at a time when the season isnt goung well. 

 

It wouldnt be the first time a football player took advantage of his situation, particularly when the postseason appears out of reach.  But it doesnt take a genius to understand pain can affect your ability to focus, especially when its pain in areas critical to performance (a split second of thought on how not to roll your ankle but still flip your hips is a split second missed on what your opponent is doing).

 

im not in the guys head, he's shown me enough good play i have no problem giving him the benefit of the doubt and im not saying you arent.  just kind of pointing out the similarities im recalling.

That was one of his problems in Miami.  People were saying he isn't as focused and dedicated as he could have been and that's why he was traded.  When he got to Indy, he said Pagano really helped him be a professional and learn how to go about his business.  He taught him how to take care of his body, what to eat, how to be a pro, etc.

 

@Superman, just out of curiosity, what makes you say Vontae, Castonzo, and Reitz are having focus problems?  I'm not disagreeing with you.  I don't know if it's something you can see on tape or if you've seen reports about something going on with them off the field or what.  Is it just a matter of them having the physical ability to be better than what they're showing?  What have you seen that leads you to the conclusion that they're having focus issues?  Would the same apply to guys like Allen and Dorsett, whose talent exceeds their production thus far?

[OffensivelyPC]

3 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

That was one of his problems in Miami.  People were saying he isn't as focused and dedicated as he could have been and that's why he was traded.  When he got to Indy, he said Pagano really helped him be a professional and learn how to go about his business.  He taught him how to take care of his body, what to eat, how to be a pro, etc.

 

@Superman, just out of curiosity, what makes you say Vontae, Castonzo, and Reitz are having focus problems?  I'm not disagreeing with you.  I don't know if it's something you can see on tape or if you've seen reports about something going on with them off the field or what.  Is it just a matter of them having the physical ability to be better than what they're showing?  What have you seen that leads you to the conclusion that they're having focus issues?  Would the same apply to guys like Allen and Dorsett, whose talent exceeds their production thus far?

I was going to bring up Miami, but i didnt want to try to make that correlation because i couldnt recall that far back with clarity. it rings a bell, so im glad you brought that up. i dont think its a sign of things come mostly because one is self inflicted and the other is just physical limitations. at least i hope thats the case.

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

42 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

That was one of his problems in Miami.  People were saying he isn't as focused and dedicated as he could have been and that's why he was traded.  When he got to Indy, he said Pagano really helped him be a professional and learn how to go about his business.  He taught him how to take care of his body, what to eat, how to be a pro, etc.

 

@Superman, just out of curiosity, what makes you say Vontae, Castonzo, and Reitz are having focus problems?  I'm not disagreeing with you.  I don't know if it's something you can see on tape or if you've seen reports about something going on with them off the field or what.  Is it just a matter of them having the physical ability to be better than what they're showing?  What have you seen that leads you to the conclusion that they're having focus issues?  Would the same apply to guys like Allen and Dorsett, whose talent exceeds their production thus far?

Lack of focus is just his nice way of saying that they're sucking inexplicably.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, Gabriel Alexander Morillo said:

You said halfway through the season

 

Did I? When?

[Superman]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

Good write up.  I think the assessment is spot on.  

 

I would add that the WRs, as a unit, have been the most dissappointing, IMO.  None seem to be much of a concern for a defense.  And the lack of a well-developed short passing game, going on several years and two OCs now, is also very dissappointing.  I have to wonder if it is a mix of the coaches, the WRs not being suited to short passing, and Luck not being great with ball placement on the crossing routes.

 

The defensive problems are well known.  It simply lacks talent, especially at all 4 LB spots.

 

The team is average, and injuries have piled on the issue.  I'm hoping for a 6-10 season and a chance to draft some LBs this spring.

 

Agreed on the receivers. Besides the drops, I don't have a problem with their play, but they haven't been as productive as we need them to be. I mostly blame the coaching, of course.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, 21isSuperman said:

@Superman, just out of curiosity, what makes you say Vontae, Castonzo, and Reitz are having focus problems?  I'm not disagreeing with you.  I don't know if it's something you can see on tape or if you've seen reports about something going on with them off the field or what.  Is it just a matter of them having the physical ability to be better than what they're showing?  What have you seen that leads you to the conclusion that they're having focus issues?  Would the same apply to guys like Allen and Dorsett, whose talent exceeds their production thus far?

 

Those are three players that we've seen play much better than they're playing right now. None of them are old enough to be slowing down significantly or losing their physical abilities. Reitz and Davis have had injuries, and that's worth acknowledging. But all three of them, their issues this season have been technical, for the most part. Missed assignments, poor footwork, lack of awareness, etc. Besides the injuries, I don't think their issues are physical.

 

The same would apply to any receiver who drops passes, and I'd say that about Allen for sure. I only remember one drop from Dorsett, against the Steelers; I might be forgetting another. I don't think Dorsett is playing poorly, I think the coaching staff is doing a poor job of using him. 

[jameszeigler834]

5 hours ago, Superman said:

I haven't been able to do weekly grades at all this season, just too much going on. However I have been keeping notes, rewatching games, etc., and I figured this extended week was a good time to dump some of those notes; I wanted to do this during the bye week, but didn't have the time. I'm going to use my typical grade format, for the most part.

 

Let's start with the offense.

 

Offense: 14th in yards/game (352.4), 11th in points/game (24.5), T-14th in turnovers (13), 10th in 3rd down % (42.5%), T-14th in 4th down % (53.8%), 2nd in red zone efficiency (68.6% TD rate), 11th most penalties (77), C-

 

QBs: The playmaker has returned, and despite some rough patches at times, he's just as good as always, better in some ways. He's done a good job of limiting turnovers, which is an improvement over his shortened 2015. He's just as fearless going down the field, fitting the ball in tight windows, hanging in the pocket until the last minute -- all the traits that make him such a dynamic playmaker. His accuracy seems improved, for the most part, especially when he has time, and when he's decisively moving outside the pocket. There are still some throws that sail, or wind up behind receivers, or come a little late, but those are mostly timing and/or footwork issues influenced by a crowded pocket. He's also been aggressive as a runner, but smart about getting down when the play is over (took a sharp hit near the goal line against the Titans, but he was trying to get a TD). He's been effective to all areas of the field as a passer, and without his play, the Colts would probably be winless this year. My only complaint is that he continues to hold the ball too long, but I believe that's a function of the play calling. To whatever extent Luck likes the hold the ball -- and he obviously does -- the coaches have to get the ball out of his hands more quickly through scheme, but more on that in coaching... Just a few words about Tolzien -- he showed against the Steelers that he's tough, he has some playmaking DNA to him, and he can put the ball in tight windows. I hate his delivery and mechanics, but he can push the ball down the field, unlike Hasselbeck and Whitehurst. He's a capable backup, for sure. B, the strength of the team, could be more efficient

 

Receivers: This unit was meant to be a strength of the team. They have not been. Hilton has been very good, but has had a few untimely drops that have marred his record, and he's been pretty nicked up throughout the season. Moncrief was hurt for a while, and his volume production hasn't been great, but he's still been productive, especially in the red zone, and he puts a scare into defenses. No one else has been consistent, including Dorsett, which is partly about coaching but also has to do with his own missteps at times, including some drops. Doyle has been a very pleasant surprise as probably the second best receiving option on the team so far, definitely the top TE, with Allen having a disappointing first half of the season. Again, drops have been brutal from one of the supposed leaders of the team. The backs have been okay as receivers, but haven't been weaponized as much as I would personally prefer, specifically on screens and angle routes. The hopeful gadget back -- Ferguson -- struggles in pass pro and can't run between the tackles, so his reps had to be purposeful, and they've disappeared entirely over the last month. I believe coaching to be a detriment to the passing game, to an extent, but the receivers have made things hard on themselves with some general sloppiness and lack of focus / intensity. C, not playing up to standard, have left a lot of plays on the field

 

Blocking: You'll notice a pattern when I say that I think the coaching hasn't helped the blocking. I'll also mention the impact that injuries have had, as the line seems to be shuffled every week. The run game has struggled to find any kind of rhythm, as there have been times where any semblance of offensive balance has gone out of the window earlier than necessary. Then other times, the line has seemed incapable of opening any running lanes for the backs. There are technical issues with individual blockers that seem to undermine potentially positive plays, and then there are overly complicated schemes that don't produce anything. Likewise in pass pro, there are individual issues and unit issues. Lots of inexperience and lack of cohesiveness on the OL. There's also a lack of focus among some of the veteran players (AC, Reitz). I think the two best lineups are capable of playing better than they have, but between injuries and some players playing below their capabilities, the protection hasn't been good. The line has given up multiple sacks in every game, and is on the way to 55 sacks this season, not to mention a ton of QB hits. Again, I think the passing concepts share a significant amount of blame, but the line definitely isn't protecting well. The backs have missed a lot of protections, and the TEs have been inconsistent in protection, including some major whiffs. D, no run game, poor protection, but I fully believe they can perform better

 

Offensive coaching: Okay, so I keep mentioning the coaching. If you've read any of my thoughts after games, you'll find these comments familiar. There is a glaring lack of short passing concepts from the Colts, and it's not a new thing. They've been working on the pick play and crossing stuff lately, but that takes timing, good ball placement, and sure-handed receivers. Hardly any screens, and it seems like 75% of their tries get blown up. Even fewer slants, and half of those get tipped at the line because they don't cut block the edge to clear the passing lane. There are other quick hitting concepts that lend themselves to high efficiency passing and generally help to make up for leaky pass blocking, and they just don't use them with any regularity. To me, this is unacceptable for a team with such a troubled pass pro unit. I like the general aggressiveness of the play calling, but it needs to be balanced with high efficiency play calling, and it's mostly not. The run game hasn't benefited either. Some of the run schemes seem overly complicated and slow to develop. To the positive, there have been some clever and timely play calls and schemes. The ability to threaten down the field is something that will always be a staple of any Andrew Luck offense, and the Colts have relied on that ability to establish themselves as an explosive offense. The coaching just needs to enhance the efficiency of the offense, and it's not doing that so far. C-, looking to maximize Luck's strengths, but not minimizing the weaknesses on the OL

 

Defense: 30th in yards allowed (395/game), 26th in points allowed (27.4/game), 27th in completion percentage against (66%),  T-32nd in yards/play (6.2, with Raiders), T-29th in takeaways (8, Jags the worst at 7), 25th on third down (43.1%), T-12th on 4th down (40%), T-30th most penalties (88),  D+

 

Run game: They've given up over 100 yards rushing in all but three games this season, including 158 to the Texans, in one of the sloppiest efforts with regard to run defense since the Patriots playoff games. In general, the run fits and edge play is decent, but there are 5-7 plays every game where the edge collapses, or the backers overpursue. And then there were more missed tackles in the first month than anyone cares to remember. It doesn't seem like there's anyone up front who can hold up against a double team, much less make a play. Henry Anderson is still not back to form, which shouldn't be surprising. More concerning to me than the DL though is the sloppy edge play and missed tackles. We need more talent and speed in the front, obviously, but simple execution would improve the run defense. They were extremely physical up front against the Chargers; it would be nice to see more of that. The safeties have mostly done a nice job in run support, but they've missed tackles as well. C-, too many missed opportunities

 

Pass rush: The most glaring weakness on the defense, on track for a paltry 32 sacks, and not a lot of pressures to make up for it. Walden has been relatively good, but is not a game changing pass rusher. Mathis has been MIA, the interior pressure almost never gets home, blitzes seem to be a half second late... I'm not going to spend a lot of words on this, it's obvious to everyone that without a premiere pass rusher, the Colts can't effectively pressure QBs. I will give credit for a couple of surprisingly effective games against the Titans and Packers. D, no consistent impact

 

Pass coverage: The coverage has been undermined by both injuries and an ineffective pass rush, but the somewhat passive approach at times has nullified any tandem effort with the pass rush. That passivity has kind of been necessary due to the injuries, though. Catch-22. Melvin has gotten some attention lately, mostly because he's long, athletic, aggressive and tough, but he struggles to mirror receivers, and he gets penalized too much. Davis hasn't been sharp, maybe due to injury, but also seemingly due to a lack of focus, IMO. Butler and Robinson haven't been good, and both have been injured also. The safeties have been decent, with Geathers coming on nicely lately, but he's also dealt with injuries, which have forced Green on the field more than is ideal. Green is full of unrealized potential, but just like at Clemson, he struggles to track the ball in the air, and continues to give up big plays because of it. The ILBs are no good in space, especially one on one coverage, and the middle of the field and the flats are basically a treasure trove for good offenses. The pass coverage has the potential to get better, based on some of the coaching they've been doing in recent weeks, but they've also given up some big games to very average QBs, so I'm not sure I can be too optimistic. C-, handicapped by the pass rush to an extent, but lots of blown coverages and mistakes

 

Defensive coaching: I think the coaching has been handcuffed by the injuries, especially in the secondary. Looking at the Green Bay game and some positive stretches in other games, I think I can see what they want to do defensively. They want to use multiple coverages, especially across the middle. They want to vary their blitzes and stay aggressive on the outside. They want to contain the edges and penetrate up front against the run. And the want to keep the ball in front of the deep safety. For the most part, this plays into the strengths of the defense. Where the scheme fails is when they get stretched out due to lack of edge containment, which leads to missed tackles and big plays. It also fails when they give up plays in the flats, again getting stretched out, which is a major problem for a defensive front lacking athleticism. Once they get stretched out, they back off, and then smart offenses attack short over and over again, including with power runs. It also doesn't help that there have been so many injuries. In general, the only answer is more athleticism. The defense has had some nice stretches, but without a stronger pass rush and better playmakers in the middle, they'll continue to get beat. The big mistakes don't help, either. C+, I see the vision, but the tools aren't there for it to come together

 

Special teams: 3rd in avg KO return (27.1 yards/return), 27th in avg punt return (6.4 yards/return), 1 return TD, 9th in avg KO return against (20.1 yards/return), 18th in avg punt return against (9.5 yards/return), zero return TDs allowed, zero blocked punts/kicks

 

Kicking/punting: AV has been money, and was on fire up until the miss against the Titans. He's never had a perfect season, and I feel bad for him because I don't think we should have kicked the FG against the Titans, the one he wound up missing. Anyways, he's been great, and I bet he has the misses out of his system. McAfee has continued to be a weapon, with the fake punt play, an onside kick converted, and generally good punting. The coverage has missed a couple opportunities to pin punts down inside the five, or else Pat's net average would be even better than it is (he's first in the league in gross and net). A, no complaints, best kicker/punter duo in the league

 

Returners: Several muffs and questionable returns so far. Bray being hurt hasn't helped, and they've cycled through a bunch of other players. Rogers seems to have settled into the punt return role, and kick returns aren't as tricky to field. Todman had the great return TD, and there have been a couple other big returns. It's been a few weeks since any egregious return mistakes. C, when in doubt, let it drop

 

Kickoff / punt coverage: Besides the aforementioned misses on downed punts, the coverage has been good in both areas. The punt return average is a little high, but that's due to a couple 20+ returns, nothing that got close to the end zone. The shorter kickoffs have been a mixed bag, but they used them effectively in the second Titans game, and covered them well. B

 

Special teams coaching: A, the tricks and proven effectiveness at recovering onside kicks is becoming a staple of the Colts' special teams units. All anyone talks about is the failed fake punt last season, but the Colts are dangerous on special teams, and every opponent knows it.

 

Game management: I like the aggressiveness in certain situations, including onside kicks and 4th down attempts. I think there was a missed 4th down opportunity against the Titans, and it might have hurt the team. The clock management at the end of the Lions game might have cost them the game. There's not much to say about challenges; Pagano is 2/3. Despite Pagano's willingness to go for it and call fakes, he still trends toward conservative decision making, especially when decisions have to be made quickly. 

 

Best offensive performers: Andrew Luck (makes everything go), Jack Doyle (very pleasant surprise, 2nd leading receiver)

Best defensive performers: Erik Walden (tone setter, leading in sacks), Clayton Geathers (at his best, a difference maker)

 

Most disappointing offensive players: Anthony Castonzo (should be a rock at LT, has been inconsistent and given up too many pressures/sacks), Dwayne Allen (too many drops)

Most disappointing defensive players: Vontae Davis (mostly dealing with injury, but has been beat too much), Robert Mathis (still doesn't have a solid sack, not closing well)

 

Projection: We're 5-6, which isn't good. I believe we've given away three games so far, but this team isn't a contender. The Texans aren't anything to be afraid of, so the division is still in play, but you figure they'd have to win out, and get some help since Houston has only 4 losses right now. Two division games to go, both at home, including Houston, but three road games -- Jets, Vikings and the AFC leading Raiders (I'll be at that game, by the way). The Jets are kind of a mess, and the Vikings have slowed down, but none of these games are gimmes. The Texans haven't quite hit their stride, either; I could see them playing better than they have so far. I'd put the Colts chances of making the playoffs at 25% right now. If I had to bet, I'd put money on another second place finish at 8-8.

 

GO COLTS!

 

The way I look at this team we are 5-6 which is pretty much terrible and we have lost a lot of winnable games this season we have to run the ball way better than we are and the defense needs a major overhaul if this team is going to be a contender again any time soon. most disappointing players goes to Allen he has been for the most part terrible this season I'm disappointed in Castanzo he was really good two years ago now he is not far off of awful Mathis is done Davis has had games where he was really good this year but then in some of the games he has been way off.

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

34 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Did I? When?

You mentioned Dwayne Allen as having a disappointing first half of the season.

 

I took it as you maybe thinking we've only played 8 games or something. Since it's not like he's picked up his play any in the last three games.

[Superman]

Just now, Gabriel Alexander Morillo said:

You mentioned Dwayne Allen as having a disappointing first half of the season.

 

I took it as you maybe thinking we've only played 8 games or something. Since it's not like he's picked up his play any in the last three games.

 

Meh; I would think it's pretty obvious that I know how many games we've played... 

 

I know Allen has been the subject of your ire lately, but I'm not trying to protect him. He did play a good game Thursday, though.

[braveheartcolt]

Excellent and appreciated as always, Supes. Mind you, you could have saved yourself some time, by just saying, 'we are average'.....'and without Luck we are the Browns in disguise'.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Nice breakdown Supe! I know that takes a lot of time to do. I agree with most of it.

[Superman]

20 minutes ago, braveheartcolt said:

Excellent and appreciated as always, Supes. Mind you, you could have saved yourself some time, by just saying, 'we are average'.....'and without Luck we are the Browns in disguise'.

 

I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I don't think the Colts are anywhere near the Browns level of ineptitude. Not good, obviously...

[braveheartcolt]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

I know this is tongue-in-cheek, but I don't think the Colts are anywhere near the Browns level of ineptitude. Not good, obviously...

Of course, TIC. However, you did say we would probably be winless without Andrew's play = Browns. Or maybe you can get different levels of hopeless......

[zibby43]

Superman single-handedly makes this board a must-read with thoughtful, well-researched posts like that.

 

Thank you very much for taking the time to share your analysis, Superman.  Sobering, in some respects, but right on the money.

[will426]

In my mind what I got out of this is A. fire the oc. B.the Dc uses injuries as an excuse not to play how we usually defense...C Constanzo and and mainly Mathis have become scrubs this year...D start Butler over Adams at safety..green goes to ilb when geathers is not in..starting corners should be  Davis and Melvin on the outside p Rob in the slot..now if Davis gets hurt which he has this all changes but for the most part he's been playing  and we could've used this alignment for games without geathers

[Gabriel Alexander Morillo]

10 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Meh; I would think it's pretty obvious that I know how many games we've played... 

 

I know Allen has been the subject of your ire lately, but I'm not trying to protect him. He did play a good game Thursday, though.

I've been over Allen since before he got injured and also it makes sense to me that the backup qb feels more comfortable throwing a lot of passes to the biggest target on the field. It's evident that he is what he is and is obviously too much of a veteran to still be improving.

 

I'm more concerned with Dorsett's apparent ineptitude and now Davis' very inconsistent play. He just constantly gets injured, I can't believe we're already going to have to look for a future #1 cb. I thought he'd have some good longevity , but he's not trending that way. 

 

 

[Defjamz26]

Good write up.

 

It leaves me with one big question though. You mention coaching as the root of a lot of the issues. In your opinion @Superman, is coaching or talent the bigger issue? Or do you feel they go hand in hand?

[ztboiler]

17 hours ago, Superman said:

 

Offensive coaching: Okay, so I keep mentioning the coaching. If you've read any of my thoughts after games, you'll find these comments familiar. There is a glaring lack of short passing concepts from the Colts, and it's not a new thing.

 

Defensive coaching: I think the coaching has been handcuffed by the injuries, especially in the secondary.

 

Game planning continues to be my biggest concern on defense but you make a great point about how injuries may handcuff intended plans.  They have shown us that they can take toys away from the opponent in recent weeks.  

 

That said, against Pitt this week we had only 1 path...limit Bell and Brown to keep the score down in the teens.  They chose to, essentially, put the whole game on an injured Vontae to stay with Brown one on one.  That thinking is very hard to justify, and not just in hindsight.

[bluxco]

QB---LUCK -----getting tired of watching a average NFL QB----C

RBS---GORE has been tuff even if stats are misleading-----C plus

O-LINE---improved a bit but GRIGSONS failure to upgrade has killed COLTS===C

WRS---- injuries have hurt this group and DORSETTS been another COLT draft bust-----C-

DEFENSE LINE-----no pass rush,poor run defense-----D

SECONDARY---- soft,pathetic-----D-

KICKING-----excellent------A

COACHING-----LOL-what a joke---F

[2006Coltsbestever]

43 minutes ago, bluxco said:

QB---LUCK -----getting tired of watching a average NFL QB----C

RBS---GORE has been tuff even if stats are misleading-----C plus

O-LINE---improved a bit but GRIGSONS failure to upgrade has killed COLTS===C

WRS---- injuries have hurt this group and DORSETTS been another COLT draft bust-----C-

DEFENSE LINE-----no pass rush,poor run defense-----D

SECONDARY---- soft,pathetic-----D-

KICKING-----excellent------A

COACHING-----LOL-what a joke---F

If you think Luck is Average that is Troll material! Anyway here are my grades in a short story, Supe wrote a masterpiece so I am not even going to try and match that LOL.

*QB (Luck/Tolzien) = B+, Luck has put up Very Good numbers being under duress a lot and has been clutch at times. Tolzien was game on Thursday and his WR's had some drops. Have to produce more wins to be an A though.

 

*WR's (TY/Moncrief/Dorsett) = C, too many drops but TY is Good.

 

*RB's (Gore/Turbin.Fergy) = C-, love the effort Gore always gives behind a Bad Line.

 

*TE's (Allen/Doyle) = C, mainly because of Doyle this gets an Average grade

 

*O.Line = F, complete fail as Andrew has been sacked and hit more than any QB in the league. Also our Run Blocking isn't any good either.

 

*Pass Rush = D, Walden is Good but we hardly have no Pass Rush, Walden saves this from being an F.

 

*Secondary = C, when healthy Davis has been Good, Geathers is Good as well. 

 

*Punting + Kick offs = A (Pat)

 

*Kicking = A (Vinny), this would've been an A+ but he has missed 2 kicks recently.

 

*Head Coaching = C, he's Average folks. He isn't Good but he doesn't suck either.

 

*Record 5-6 = C-, just a tad Below Average! 6-6 would = C .500

 

*Realistic projection = 8-8 but being the GHFull man that I am, I think 9-7 is possible if we get healthy, Andrew stays healthy!

[runthepost]

4 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

If you think Luck is Average that is Troll material! Anyway here are my grades in a short story, Supe wrote a masterpiece so I am not even going to try and match that LOL.

*QB (Luck/Tolzien) = B+, Luck has put up Very Good numbers being under duress a lot and has been clutch at times. Tolzien was game on Thursday and his WR's had some drops. Have to produce more wins to be an A though.

 

*WR's (TY/Moncrief/Dorsett) = C, too many drops but TY is Good.

 

*RB's (Gore/Turbin.Fergy) = C-, love the effort Gore always gives behind a Bad Line.

 

*TE's (Allen/Doyle) = C, mainly because of Doyle this gets an Average grade

 

*O.Line = F, complete fail as Andrew has been sacked and hit more than any QB in the league. Also our Run Blocking isn't any good either.

 

*Pass Rush = D, Walden is Good but we hardly have no Pass Rush, Walden saves this from being an F.

 

*Secondary = C, when healthy Davis has been Good, Geathers is Good as well. 

 

*Punting + Kick offs = A (Pat)

 

*Kicking = A (Vinny), this would've been an A+ but he has missed 2 kicks recently.

 

*Head Coaching = C, he's Average folks. He isn't Good but he doesn't suck either.

 

*Record 5-6 = C-, just a tad Below Average! 6-6 would = C .500

 

*Realistic projection = 8-8 but being the GHFull man that I am, I think 9-7 is possible if we get healthy, Andrew stays healthy!

Super Bowl ? 

[2006Coltsbestever]

1 minute ago, runthepost said:

Super Bowl ? 

Hey all we have to is get in  I can really see 9-7 though joking aside but 8-8 would be the realistic projection as Supe even Posted.

[#12.]

The offense, minus the Tolzien game, is #7 in scoring.  The  defense is 30th in points allowed.  The offense gets a C-, the defense a D+, meaning there is little difference?  I would grade the offense a B+, the defense, F.  As flawed as the offense is, it still good enough to make this a playoff team.

[2006Coltsbestever]

21 minutes ago, #12. said:

The offense, minus the Tolzien game, is #7 in scoring.  The  defense is 30th in points allowed.  The offense gets a C-, the defense a D+, meaning there is little difference?  I would grade the offense a B+, the defense, F.  As flawed as the offense is, it still good enough to make this a playoff team.

On my grading I didn't do an overall Grade for the unit's as a whole but I would go B- for Offense and probably D- for Defense. Defense not quite an F as they have stepped in games like the Chargers and Titans. After that Houston debacle and many others it is close to an F.

[runthepost]

27 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Hey all we have to is get in  I can really see 9-7 though joking aside but 8-8 would be the realistic projection as Supe even Posted.

1st game between Dolphins Raiders Broncos or Chiefs at home

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, runthepost said:

1st game between Dolphins Raiders Broncos or Chiefs at home

Every team in the AFC is beatable that is what is funny. When you have a QB like Luck anything is possible. That is why I don't like the tanking theory and want us to get in. If we Draft 21st instead of 10th so be it, we may get a better player anyway.

[runthepost]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Every team in the AFC is beatable that is what is funny. When you have a QB like Luck anything is possible. That is why I don't like the tanking theory and want us to get in. If we Draft 21st instead of 10th so be it, we get a player anyway.

Bad thing is every team with a pass rush and an explosive offense is a bad matchup. Only team we have a low chance against are the Pats Steelers and chiefs

[Superman]

13 hours ago, braveheartcolt said:

Of course, TIC. However, you did say we would probably be winless without Andrew's play = Browns. Or maybe you can get different levels of hopeless......

 

I was exaggerating, but you have a fair point. 

 

I'll say this, it seems like the coaching staff does a better job gameplanning when Luck isn't on the field than they do when he is on the field, and that's not fair to him. JMO

[Superman]

9 hours ago, will426 said:

In my mind what I got out of this is A. fire the oc. B.the Dc uses injuries as an excuse not to play how we usually defense...C Constanzo and and mainly Mathis have become scrubs this year...D start Butler over Adams at safety..green goes to ilb when geathers is not in..starting corners should be  Davis and Melvin on the outside p Rob in the slot..now if Davis gets hurt which he has this all changes but for the most part he's been playing  and we could've used this alignment for games without geathers

 

That's a pessimist read, for sure.

 

A) Every OC we've had has had these issues. Makes me wonder if it's an edict from the head coach, or maybe a preference of the QB. At some point, Luck needs his Todd Haley, and I hope that happens soon. I don't need Chud to be fired, I just wish he'd coach better, especially with regard to passing efficiency.

 

B) The first month of the season, the secondary was a mess due to injury. You call it an excuse, I think it's a valid reason. We started guys who weren't on the roster during camp, they couldn't know all the calls. We've also been through four weakside ILBs since preseason, now settling on Edwin Jackson who is very raw. Again, I think there are legitimate reasons for the defensive coaching to have been a little vanilla for the first half of the season. I'm assuming they want to do the things they did against Green Bay, and I'm looking for more of that.

 

C) Not really. Mathis is just older and slowing down. AC, I don't know what his deal is. 

 

D) Don't know where you got that from. Butler filled in well, but Adams is definitely the better safety. 

[Superman]

6 hours ago, Gabriel Alexander Morillo said:

I've been over Allen since before he got injured and also it makes sense to me that the backup qb feels more comfortable throwing a lot of passes to the biggest target on the field. It's evident that he is what he is and is obviously too much of a veteran to still be improving.

 

I'm more concerned with Dorsett's apparent ineptitude and now Davis' very inconsistent play. He just constantly gets injured, I can't believe we're already going to have to look for a future #1 cb. I thought he'd have some good longevity , but he's not trending that way. 

 

 

There's no defense for Allen, he hasn't played well. But I disagree with the idea there's something wrong with him or that he's not good. He just needs to stop dropping passes, IMO. (This has nothing to do with his contract, in my mind.)

 

I don't know how Dorsett has displayed any ineptitude. The gameplan doesn't use him well. Yes, he had a bad drop (there might have been others earlier; tbh there were so many drops in the first six weeks that I stopped keeping track), but Dorsett has tools that this team isn't taking advantage of. I don't put that on him.

 

I figured Davis would need a replacement at some point before his contract expired. This is Year 3 of 4. I don't know if he's slowing down physically as much as he just gets nicked up too much and makes mistakes at other times. I'm not overly concerned about him, as I think he'll play at a high enough level for the next year and a half. Your concern about the position goes back to Werner over Rhodes and D'Joun Smith being a huge disappointment. But we've spent more than enough time dwelling on Grigson's missed draft picks. 

[Superman]

6 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Good write up.

 

It leaves me with one big question though. You mention coaching as the root of a lot of the issues. In your opinion @Superman, is coaching or talent the bigger issue? Or do you feel they go hand in hand?

 

Right now, it's all about coaching. You have what you have, as a staff you have to make the best use of your players. I don't think they're doing that, especially on offense. And what's worse, by not emphasizing a short passing game, they're putting pressure on their inexperienced and often-shuffled OL, which has resulted in an inordinate amount of pressure on the QB. Despite the obvious roster issues, with better coaching I think this team would have another 2-3 wins at this point. And this might be a stretch, but with better coaching, I don't think Luck misses Thursday's game.

 

As for the talent level, we all know that the Colts have roster issues at key positions. In the offseason, it's easy to be optimistic and project every position group performing at its best, but that doesn't always happen, and it certainly hasn't been the case for this year's Colts. But the roster issues are the result of a couple unproductive drafts and some disappointing free agents. The fix is to draft better moving forward. We shouldn't expect these issues to be resolved in one offseason, but if the young OL gets better, and we draft a couple foundational defensive players, things might look much better a year from now.

[Superman]

4 hours ago, #12. said:

The offense, minus the Tolzien game, is #7 in scoring.  The  defense is 30th in points allowed.  The offense gets a C-, the defense a D+, meaning there is little difference?  I would grade the offense a B+, the defense, F.  As flawed as the offense is, it still good enough to make this a playoff team.

 

How many points has the offense given up off of turnovers? That stat needs to be washed. Besides, I don't think grading is just a reflection of stats. 

 

But more importantly, what grade for the offense is too low? The overall grade is a combination of each unit grade. I could say that I went easy on the OL and the coaching...

[will426]

22 hours ago, Superman said:

 

That's a pessimist read, for sure.

 

A) Every OC we've had has had these issues. Makes me wonder if it's an edict from the head coach, or maybe a preference of the QB. At some point, Luck needs his Todd Haley, and I hope that happens soon. I don't need Chud to be fired, I just wish he'd coach better, especially with regard to passing efficiency.

 

B) The first month of the season, the secondary was a mess due to injury. You call it an excuse, I think it's a valid reason. We started guys who weren't on the roster during camp, they couldn't know all the calls. We've also been through four weakside ILBs since preseason, now settling on Edwin Jackson who is very raw. Again, I think there are legitimate reasons for the defensive coaching to have been a little vanilla for the first half of the season. I'm assuming they want to do the things they did against Green Bay, and I'm looking for more of that.

 

C) Not really. Mathis is just older and slowing down. AC, I don't know what his deal is. 

 

D) Don't know where you got that from. Butler filled in well, but Adams is definitely the better safety. 

 don't mind me supe I was just raging lightly but I do agree we need a coach similar to Todd Haley because luck needs passes coming out quick and shorter pasting routes..Ac I have no clue what's wrong with him but he's been terrible this year oddly has to be mental he couldn't have gotten weaker...I think Adams is a good safety don't take that wrong i love how he's always in the perfect spot for a turnover but there are many times where he isn't fast enough to help someone who has been beat deep he just doesn't get there in time to prevent anything..I think butlers speed and ability to play corner gives us a ball hawk at the Fs position he just seems built for it looking at that one game lol

[bluxco]

On 11/27/2016 at 9:35 AM, runthepost said:

Super Bowl ? 

super bowl???????????   lol-----your either the troll or a *

[runthepost]

4 hours ago, bluxco said:

super bowl???????????   lol-----your either the troll or a *

I'm realistic lol

[Superman]

5 hours ago, will426 said:

I think Adams is a good safety don't take that wrong i love how he's always in the perfect spot for a turnover but there are many times where he isn't fast enough to help someone who has been beat deep he just doesn't get there in time to prevent anything..I think butlers speed and ability to play corner gives us a ball hawk at the Fs position he just seems built for it looking at that one game lol

 

Butler did well in a pinch. I don't think he has safety traits, especially against a physical team that runs hard or uses big TEs. I also don't think he's any faster than Adams.