Dustin's Mock Off-Season 1.0

[Dustin]

Players Cut:

 

Andre Johnson - $5M in savings

Trent Cole - $6.25M in savings

Arthur Jones - $2.3M in savings

D'Qwell Jackson - $5.25M in savings

 

Players Re-Signed: 

 

AV - 1 year $2M

Boom Herron - 1 year $675K

Jack Doyle - 1 year $675K 

Dwight Lowery - 1 year $885K

Dwayne Allen - 1 year $1.5M

 

Extensions: 

 

Andrew Luck signs a 6 year $126M contract extension ($52M guaranteed). Luck is now under contract for 7 years for $142M. 

 

Cap Space going into FA: $33M

 

Alex Mack, C - 5 year $45M ($19M guaranteed) ($8M cap hit in 2016)

Sean Smith, CB - 3 year $15M ($7M guaranteed) ($7M cap hit in 2016)

Bruce Irvin, EDGE - 4 year $22M ($12M guaranteed) ($6.5M cap hit in 2016)

 

That leaves the Colts ~$10M to roll over to next season and to sign draft picks. 

 

Draft (1st 2 picks only):

 

Round 1 Pick 18 - The Colts select Leonard Floyd, EDGE, Georgia.

 

I still think that Floyd is way to small to be an every down player, but he's an A+ athlete that can get to the QB. Something the Colts defense definitely lacks. He's also fluid enough an athlete to learn to play in coverage as well as just firing off at the QB. Mathis will likely fall off of a cliff in 2016 and it would help if we had a contingency plan. 

 

Round 2 - Scooby Wright III, LB, Arizona. Scooby is essentially Chris Borland, but a better athlete. He was injury plagued this season which affected his production, but Wright is an instinctive defender and a tackling machine. Him and Sio Moore inside is athleticism we haven't had at LB in years. 

[CanuckColtsFan]

1. I thought Jerrel Freeman was in a contract year. Would you let him walk? I like the FA signings. Massive upgrades in all the right places.

[Dustin]

5 minutes ago, CanuckColtsFan said:

1. I thought Jerrel Freeman was in a contract year. Would you let him walk? I like the FA signings. Massive upgrades in all the right places.

 

Yeah, in this scenario im letting him go into FA

[Dustin]

Also, just want to note that Floyd is technically an ILB, but there's no way he's not a 34 edge rusher in the pros. 

[nerukamo]

Would we not resign Fleener?

[James]

Looks good.

 

If not for the dead money and Anderson's injury, I would be fine with releasing Arthur Jones. But I think he should be kept. Will be a quality DL with him even when we are rotating. Besides, he can't be that unlucky three years in a row (.. I dont remember him being this unlucky at Baltimore). 

 

What's the dead money if we cut Mathis?

[DougDew]

Very good.  Despite a bad contract and being overpaid, I'd keep Jones due to Henry Anderson's injury.  Cutting Jones creates a hole that must be filled, and he only saves $2.3M according to your analysis.

 

And the contract to DA is about right.  I don't think the market sees him as a highly desirable player.  But if he's injured again, there is a hole at TE that must be filled.  Probably need to account for that later in the draft.

[MPStack]

Great job Dustin! Kinda agree with Doug though, I keep A. Jones due to Anderson`s injury. Also, I assuming you go RB and Oline rounds 3-7.

[Track Guy]

It makes a lot of sense to me logically, but a few differences from what I'm hoping for.

 

Fleener > Allen. Because he can actually stay healthy. 

 

Alex Mack didn't do so hot this year. As much as I'm all about improving our O-line I'd be nervous about investing big on a player who might be in decline.

 

Not sold on Leonard Floyd being a top 20 talent in the draft.

 

The rest is cool with me. 

[Archer]

Not bad - similar to what I've had planned.  I've gone back and forth on Irvin, and he's the only real way to address the pass rush in FA (since Von Miller ain't goin' nowhere, and no other compelling OLBs will be on the market).   I think he would be a double digit sack guy in the Colts' system, but he's always saying something dumb.  Anyway, I hope your 3rd round pick would be a CB, as we'd still be pretty thin with Sean Smith on board...

[OffensivelyPC]

As far as ILBs in the 2nd, I would prefer Kendell Beckwith (he's better than Ragland, too, so maybe not even available in the 2nd).  I think he's a better athlete than Scooby and a better fit for that matter.  But has he stated whether he will return to LSU?  He was on the CBS Prospect Rankings and I didn't see him there anymore, but couldn't find anything reporting his decision to return to LSU.

 

3 hours ago, Dustin said:

Also, just want to note that Floyd is technically an ILB, but there's no way he's not a 34 edge rusher in the pros. 

GA played him all over the field.  He's a little short, but I agree with you - a guy with that athletic ability can be an edge rusher.  Might need to put on some bulk and improve his limited arsenal of pass rush moves, but he can get after the QB.

[Valpo2004]

I think letting Jackson and Freeman go is a big mistake honestly.  We can work a draft pick in there and let him get used to the game for a year before we start dumping our current ILB duo.    

 

I also think taking Allen over Fleener is a mistake.  If we could get Allen for 1.5 M I would say bring him back as well as Fleener but Fleener is a good receiving TE.  Had a down year because of the QB issues, but he was I believe top 10 among TE's in receiving yards the previous years before.

 

Also I know nothing about Leonard Floyd but if you don't think he can be an every down player then I don't think drafting him in the 1st is a good idea.  1st round picks should be every down players.

 

 

 

[Shive]

Keep in mind, Dwayne Allen had a "down year" because he was stuck being an extra blocker to supplement our terrible OL.

[TheRustonRifle#7]

I appreciate those who put their neck's out there by posting these...

 

I think keeping Jones (if healthy) makes more sense than releasing him...his dead money outweighs his savings this year. Plus he is versatile when healthy and that is the consideration.

 

I would love if DA signed that deal but think it would have to be more as he made 1.5 mil last year? Regardless of non use and injuries, there will be some team willing to give him more and I doubt his ego would accept that contract?

 

Not a fan of paying a 30 year old Mack Left Tackle money....his age, position and a year removed from a major injury are my reasons.

 

As far as the draft picks...I like them but wonder what the draft board is going to look like when Juniors declare, the combine is completed and personal workouts occur? Plus every year a big name screws up and drops and others rise....

 

Nice job though!

[jameszeigler834]

2 hours ago, Track Guy said:

It makes a lot of sense to me logically, but a few differences from what I'm hoping for.

 

Fleener > Allen. Because he can actually stay healthy. 

 

Alex Mack didn't do so hot this year. As much as I'm all about improving our O-line I'd be nervous about investing big on a player who might be in decline.

 

Not sold on Leonard Floyd being a top 20 talent in the draft.

 

The rest is cool with me. 

I not surprised he didn't do very good this year the two guys on both sides of him at LG and RG sucked he is one guy he cant block everybody same thing with Luck he is one man and everybody has atleast one bad year. Doesn't mean they cant play anymore I would be wiling to sign him mainly because he is an upgrade at a key position.

[Defjamz26]

I'm not a huge Wright fan. Looked pretty un-athletic when I watched him. He strikes me as one of those "hustle" guys who make plays by constantly working and not giving up.

 

3rd round maybe, but not worth our 2nd rounder. I'd take Kentrell Brothers over him in round 2.

 

Good off-season though.

[bababooey]

This forum has wanted Alex Mack for a while, he's not getting any younger or less injured.

[CR91]

pretty thin at ILB then with you not resigning freeman and cutting jackson. you expect us to start irving and moore?

[COLTS449]

Love it for the most part. The only 2 things I disagree with is keeping Allen over Fleener. And getting rid of bothe DQ and Free. I think we need to keep 1, and I think we have to bring Fleener back.

[wig]

I don't like Floyd because, as you said, he's too small.  Guys with his frame rarely succeed.

 

Scooby in the 2nd would a great pick, I think.  He won't have the ideal measurables, but flat out makes plays against the pass and run.

[Dustin]

1 hour ago, CR91 said:

pretty thin at ILB then with you not resigning freeman and cutting jackson. you expect us to start irving and moore?

 

Yeah, I have no problem with that.

[DougDew]

About Mack.  I think he has an option out of his contract.  But would he opt out if he was going to take a significant pay cut to sign elsewhere?  Maybe the regime in Cleveland will have to cut him.

[COLTS449]

3 hours ago, CR91 said:

pretty thin at ILB then with you not resigning freeman and cutting jackson. you expect us to start irving and moore?

 

I'd say Scooby would be starting with one of Moore or Irving.

[CR91]

5 minutes ago, COLTS449 said:

 

I'd say Scooby would be starting with one of Moore or Irving.

 

Wright is a OLB

[COLTS449]

18 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

 

3 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I'm not a huge Wright fan. Looked pretty un-athletic when I watched him. He strikes me as one of those "hustle" guys who make plays by constantly working and not giving up.

 

3rd round maybe, but not worth our 2nd rounder. I'd take Kentrell Brothers over him in round 2.

 

Good off-season though.

 

Yeah but sometimes guys like that are really, really good players. Like Borland. Who like Dustin said Wright's very similar too. Chris Borland was a beast in his rookie year and he wasn't the biggest, fastest, or most athletic ILB.

[COLTS449]

19 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Wright is a OLB

 

He'd be an ILB with us. OLB in a 4-3. He's not an EDGE rusher.

[loudnproudcolt]

I think Mack would take less. He said he is sick of losing!  I don't think the Browns have inspired him since yesterday they have run two guys to run the team, one is not a football buy, stats. guy, and the other had NFL experience, but is another moneyball (stats) guy. It may work, but if I am Mack, and 30, I would not wait around. 8-9 M would be great money, especially as much as he made the last two years, and there was a reason he made sure he could opt out after two years and no franchise tag could be applied.

[Coltscrazy]

I love the idea of drafting linebackers 1&2.  I also like your idea of getting a big time corner opposite Davis.  In the guard thread, people have opened my eyes on some good OL depth in rounds 3-5. 

 

Free Agents

I don't know much about Sean Smith.  I was thinking Janoris Jenkins, but it is the same idea.

Janoris Jenkins

Jeff Allen OG Chiefs - good price, good player. 

Mackenzy Bernadeau OC Dallas.  A tough veteran stop gap.

 

If we overpayed for these guys a bit, I'd be ok with that.

 

For the draft.

1.  Jonathon Allen   edge Alabama - he is rising, a little overshadowed by all the Bama big guys.  relentless, tight ends and running backs have no chance.  Makes people look helpless.

2.  Tyler Matakevic ILB Temple.   tough, instintive, makes plays vs the pass.

3.  Joshua Garnett OG Stanford  Some posters have talked him up, I'm definately seeing it.

4.  Kyle Murphy OT Stanford  I'd be shocked if he lasted this long, but another Cardinal up front

5.  Austin Blythe OC Iowa  -  Kid is a masher, one of my sleepers.  My second favorite center behind Nick Martin.

7.  Nate Sudfeld QB IU -  Might as well develope a good backup.

 

On the people to resign-  I'm surprised there is no love for Billy Winn.  He looked really good coming in for Anderson.  Definately worth what he would sign for.  With Winn and Kerr, I think the Arthur Jones experiment is over.

I'd also resign Charlie Whitehurst.  He played really well.  He would be a good priced veteran backup.

 

I couldn't let Freeman go.  We just don't have enough talent to let some of it get away at this position.  It is tough with D Jackson too.  Yes he is old, but he was lights out the last few games.

 

As for the people walking - I'd let Fleener go.  He is a top receiving tight end, but do we want to pay good money to a receiving TE?  Get a guy who can block, improve the line and play bombs away like we did with Arians.  Thats what our WR are built for, and Luck is good at getting it to them. 

 

Finally, please bring back Griff Whalen.  Like Luck said, the guy can !%@$#$ play.

[ponyboy]

Looks good.

 

I too would like to keep Fleener and let Allen walk.  I would think Arians might offer Allen more than the $1.5 you've got slotted for him.  How much do you think Fleener will get? $4M/year?

 

Also, maybe keep Freeman and use one of the two higher picks on a RT.  Reitz and Castanzo are good but there is no depth behind them.  I'd like to see a third quality OT on the team to be prepared for an injury at that position (DG was better than expected but still below average and a risk to only have him).  If the new RT had potential to fill in at RG that would be good too.

[COLTS449]

13 minutes ago, Coltscrazy said:

I love the idea of drafting linebackers 1&2.  I also like your idea of getting a big time corner opposite Davis.  In the guard thread, people have opened my eyes on some good OL depth in rounds 3-5. 

 

Free Agents

I don't know much about Sean Smith.  I was thinking Janoris Jenkins, but it is the same idea.

Janoris Jenkins

Jeff Allen OG Chiefs - good price, good player. 

Mackenzy Bernadeau OC Dallas.  A tough veteran stop gap.

 

If we overpayed for these guys a bit, I'd be ok with that.

 

For the draft.

1.  Jonathon Allen   edge Alabama - he is rising, a little overshadowed by all the Bama big guys.  relentless, tight ends and running backs have no chance.  Makes people look helpless.

2.  Tyler Matakevic ILB Temple.   tough, instintive, makes plays vs the pass.

3.  Joshua Garnett OG Stanford  Some posters have talked him up, I'm definately seeing it.

4.  Kyle Murphy OT Stanford  I'd be shocked if he lasted this long, but another Cardinal up front

5.  Austin Blythe OC Iowa  -  Kid is a masher, one of my sleepers.  My second favorite center behind Nick Martin.

7.  Nate Sudfeld QB IU -  Might as well develope a good backup.

 

On the people to resign-  I'm surprised there is no love for Billy Winn.  He looked really good coming in for Anderson.  Definately worth what he would sign for.  With Winn and Kerr, I think the Arthur Jones experiment is over.

I'd also resign Charlie Whitehurst.  He played really well.  He would be a good priced veteran backup.

 

I couldn't let Freeman go.  We just don't have enough talent to let some of it get away at this position.  It is tough with D Jackson too.  Yes he is old, but he was lights out the last few games.

 

As for the people walking - I'd let Fleener go.  He is a top receiving tight end, but do we want to pay good money to a receiving TE?  Get a guy who can block, improve the line and play bombs away like we did with Arians.  Thats what our WR are built for, and Luck is good at getting it to them. 

 

Finally, please bring back Griff Whalen.  Like Luck said, the guy can !%@$#$ play.

 

Why would we sign Guards like that when guys like Osemele are available. Or even Incognito who's a little old but still a really good guard. We don't need another average signing on the OL. We need to sign a bona-fid pro bowl caliber Guard. My choice is signing Osemele and Wisnewski. Wisnewski should cost all that much. He's not a top 5 Center in the league or nothing, but he's a good above average, reliable Center. Plus him playing in between Mewhort and Osemele would make him that much better.

[Coltscrazy]

Do you really think Osemele won't be resigned?  I'd say the chances are pretty slim.  I'd love to have an elite OG, but guys like that just don't walk.  I'd draft one, but none are really 1st or 2nd round value.  Jeff Allen and McKenzy Bernadeau are both good players.  They are not scrubs or experiments and would be huge improvements over what we have now.  We'd get better, plus add talented depth and competition.  I don't see any of these guys as the long term answer, but it would still be a significant improvement.  I'm not sold on Wisnewski at all.  What does he do well?  Bernadeau is a good player, and I would rather have him than another guy whos only advantage is that he is younger.

[COLTS449]

55 minutes ago, Coltscrazy said:

Do you really think Osemele won't be resigned?  I'd say the chances are pretty slim.  I'd love to have an elite OG, but guys like that just don't walk.  I'd draft one, but none are really 1st or 2nd round value.  Jeff Allen and McKenzy Bernadeau are both good players.  They are not scrubs or experiments and would be huge improvements over what we have now.  We'd get better, plus add talented depth and competition.  I don't see any of these guys as the long term answer, but it would still be a significant improvement.  I'm not sold on Wisnewski at all.  What does he do well?  Bernadeau is a good player, and I would rather have him than another guy whos only advantage is that he is younger.

 

Baltimore has already given Yanda big money. I would bet Osemele hits the open market. Don't see any way he doesn't.

[12isthenew18]

if this was possible i'd be psyched  

[ScissorMeTimbers]

Was it two years ago everyone was on the Alex Mack hype train? I would still absolutely love to have him but I don't want to be disappointed again, it hurt too much lol 

 

on another note, solid off season. Looking forward to all your input again this off season Dustin

[UKColt13]

Love it Dustin. Only thing i'd change is Leonard Floyd for a different pass rusher. LLike the position choice, just not sold on the player.

[The Peytonator]

I wouldn't be too thrilled with giving Mack all that money. Dude's 30 and coming off a down and injured year. I'd rather just bring in a cheap, but consistent veteran like Wisniewski or Will Montgomery. Draft somebody later and hope they're better than the dynamic duo Grigson has forced on us.

[The Peytonator]

I wouldn't be too thrilled with giving Mack all that money. Dude's 30 and coming off a down and injured year. I'd rather just bring in a cheap, but consistent veteran like Wisniewski or Will Montgomery. Draft somebody later and hope they're better than the dynamic duo Grigson has forced on us.

[Bluefire4]

Some of our resigning are too low. Dwayne Allen will not be back at that price after how frustrated he was this year. I think Lowery will get more than vet min as well.

[Bluefire4]

Some of our resigning are too low. Dwayne Allen will not be back at that price after how frustrated he was this year. I think Lowery will get more than vet min as well.

[Defjamz26]

On January 5, 2016 at 3:33 PM, COLTS449 said:

 

 

Yeah but sometimes guys like that are really, really good players. Like Borland. Who like Dustin said Wright's very similar too. Chris Borland was a beast in his rookie year and he wasn't the biggest, fastest, or most athletic ILB.

 I'll try and sell myself on Wright because Borland proved everyone wrong. I just know that the one game I saw he looked lost. If you have some recommendations as to what games to watch, let me know.