Colts working on the pass first?

[oldunclemark]

Indianapolis Colts Training Camp Notebook: Pass First or Pass Only?

By

Nate Dunlevy(AFC South Lead Blogger) on August 8, 2012

This is about all the work the Colts' backs are getting.

Brian Spurlock-US PRESSWIRE

I stopped in at Indianapolis Colts camp in Anderson, Ind., last night, and here's what I took away from the visit.

Perhaps Fears of Running Offense were Overstated

The Colts aren't running the ball much in camp.

By "much" I mean at all. When you see reports of Luck throwing 45 passes, it's true that the number combines several drills, but it also reflects just how much they are working Luck's arm in camp.

It's true that for stretches of practice the Colts worked on two-minute drills, but it was interesting to note that Andrew Luck only handed the ball off five or six times the entire night.

That's continuing a theme from throughout the first week.

It may mean nothing at all, and the Colts could easily come out and run 30 times in Week 1, but so far, carries have been few and far between for the backs.

Pat McAfee Shouldn't Quit His Day Job

McAfee has been kicking a lot in Colts camp as the team rests the leg of Adam Vinatieri. That's a wise strategy, and it allows McAfee, who became an Internet sensation with his 70-plus yard field goals, to get some practice.

The results this preseason have been mixed. McAfee would be a great emergency option in the event of injury, but he sprays plenty of kicks as well.

Vinatieri isn't losing any sleep over his roster spot, that's for sure.

[TKnight24]

That could just mean that we're getting Luck more Comfortable & Confident with his Arm. Doesn't neccessarily mean we're throwing the Run out the Window

[FireJimCaldwell]

You don't draft a QB#1, and Tight ends 2 & 3, to run the ball 50% of the time.

They are going to throw it 55-65% and from a structural point of view there won't be much change.

Oh well.

[NewColtsFan]

I seriously doubt we'll throw the ball 65% of the time of the time. If we do, we've got serious problems.

But even so, considering all the talk about a commitment to the running game, we're not practicing much at all in that area... I don't know how the team would expect to be effective in the running game no matter how much, or how little we use it.

We certainly want it to be effective. If you're not practicing run blocking, and it doesn't sound much like we are, then I don't know how we expect to run the ball effectively. Even more to the point, teams that want to STOP the run, need to practice against a running offense. So, we're hurting both our running offense AND our running defense.

I'm expecting to see more of a commitment to the run in practices for the rest of the pre-season. Perhaps we're trying to be overly cautious regarding injuries. I wish someone in the media would ask about this specifically.

[The Fish]

FJC is dead on. This team is is going pass first. I have no problem with that for now, but if a win in Chicago is even possible a 100 yard rushing game by committee is a must. Hope the fumble drills are getting the RB's decent reps.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I seriously doubt we'll throw the ball 65% of the time of the time. If we do, we've got serious problems.

But even so, considering all the talk about a commitment to the running game, we're not practicing much at all in that area... I don't know how the team would expect to be effective in the running game no matter how much, or how little we use it.

We certainly want it to be effective. If you're not practicing run blocking, and it doesn't sound much like we are, then I don't know how we expect to run the ball effectively. Even more to the point, teams that want to STOP the run, need to practice against a running offense. So, we're hurting both our running offense AND our running defense.

I'm expecting to see more of a commitment to the run in practices for the rest of the pre-season. Perhaps we're trying to be overly cautious regarding injuries. I wish someone in the media would ask about this specifically.

65% was the higher extreme, while I doubt we exceed it, I wouldn't be surprised at all to approach it.

Last season the league average pass to run ratio was 57.1% to 42.9%.

Last season the Colts horrible coaching staff had a pass to run ratio of 59.8% to 40.2% with the garbage that was under center for most of the season. If it were charted, I would say that the ratio was even higher when Painter was the QB, which was and still is absurd.

If they aren't letting the pig fly, then one has to question some of the off season moves.

[mvbighead]

You don't draft a QB#1, and Tight ends 2 & 3, to run the ball 50% of the time.

They are going to throw it 55-65% and from a structural point of view there won't be much change.

Oh well.

If QB is a position on your team that is in need of change, you absolutely draft one in the first round if a good one is there. I don't think we can question the call to draft Luck based on what has been said of him.

As for TEs, they are also involved heavily in the run game. If we employ 2 TE sets, which is rumored to be our most used offensive package, running the ball is something that has usually done well out of that formation.

In summation, you absolutely can draft a QB in the 1st, and TEs in the 2nd and 3rd, and still rush 50% of the time.

[Rich Cannon]

65% was the higher extreme, while I doubt we exceed it, I wouldn't be surprised at all to approach it.

Last season the league average pass to run ratio was 57.1% to 42.9%.

Last season the Colts horrible coaching staff had a pass to run ratio of 59.8% to 40.2% with the garbage that was under center for most of the season. If it were charted, I would say that the ratio was even higher when Painter was the QB, which was and still is absurd.

If they aren't letting the pig fly, then one has to question some of the off season moves.

You are right I also can see them throwing the ball more than running. I just dont believe its necessarily the right choice given our current O-Line I dont see a solid veteran group back there that have played together for a while. Thats what a rookie qb needs not Jeff Link and company of unproven talent. IMO the only solid O-Lineman is Satele at this point.

[Moncrief]

65% was the higher extreme, while I doubt we exceed it, I wouldn't be surprised at all to approach it.

Last season the league average pass to run ratio was 57.1% to 42.9%.

Last season the Colts horrible coaching staff had a pass to run ratio of 59.8% to 40.2% with the garbage that was under center for most of the season. If it were charted, I would say that the ratio was even higher when Painter was the QB, which was and still is absurd.

If they aren't letting the pig fly, then one has to question some of the off season moves.

your avatar got me on the chalkboard

[FireJimCaldwell]

If QB is a position on your team that is in need of change, you absolutely draft one in the first round if a good one is there. I don't think we can question the call to draft Luck based on what has been said of him.

As for TEs, they are also involved heavily in the run game. If we employ 2 TE sets, which is rumored to be our most used offensive package, running the ball is something that has usually done well out of that formation.

In summation, you absolutely can draft a QB in the 1st, and TEs in the 2nd and 3rd, and still rush 50% of the time.

Of course anything is possible, but to me investing the way the team did with the top 3 draft picks rushing the ball 50%+ of the time would be an misuse of assets. When you add in the current group of offensive lineman/backs,etc, running the ball at that rate would be a huge mistake.

It's not a question of drafting Luck or any other QB, it's a question of their usage.

Of course there are also various definitions of "need of change".

[TKnight24]

As I stated, Idk much about Arians' style of Play. But if we're ANYTHING like Pit, they Ran the ball a pretty good % of the Time. Coaches kept saying we were gonna Run the Ball "When We Want To". So, idk exactly the Percent Ratio. But this is just my Opinion. I Predict a Ratio of 60% Pass to 40% Run

[21isSuperman]

My only concern is that with this much throwing, I hope they don't tire out his arm or put lots of wear on it after just a few years

[oldunclemark]

You don't draft a QB#1, and Tight ends 2 & 3, to run the ball 50% of the time.

They are going to throw it 55-65% and from a structural point of view there won't be much change.

Oh well.

...We just dont have the line to be a power running team...

..and we dont know the ceiling for our new QB........If Luck is as good as we hope ...or better

........we'll open up the run game with frequent flier miles..

Luck will become Donald Brown's BFF..

[FireJimCaldwell]

As I stated, Idk much about Arians' style of Play. But if we're ANYTHING like Pit, they Ran the ball a pretty good % of the Time. Coaches kept saying we were gonna Run the Ball "When We Want To". So, idk exactly the Percent Ratio. But this is just my Opinion. I Predict a Ratio of 60% Pass to 40% Run

One of the reasons Arians was fired in Pittsburgh was because he was becoming pass happy, and the powers-to-be wanted smash mouth.

[TKnight24]

One of the reasons Arians was fired in Pittsburgh was because he was becoming pass happy, and the powers-to-be wanted smash mouth.

"Powers-To-Be" Meaning Tomlin & Co.?? And I don't see what's really Wrong with that. They had the Speed at WR to Stretch the Field. Ward was the Underneath Guy and the Vet. I think they would've done fine like that. But I guess if he is Pass Happy... we have the Talent at WR & TE to Run that. And now with the Speed, I guess we could Stretch the Field

[FireJimCaldwell]

"Powers-To-Be" Meaning Tomlin & Co.?? And I don't see what's really Wrong with that. They had the Speed at WR to Stretch the Field. Ward was the Underneath Guy and the Vet. I think they would've done fine like that. But I guess if he is Pass Happy... we have the Talent at WR & TE to Run that. And now with the Speed, I guess we could Stretch the Field

Tomlin, Ownership, GM, etc.

Arians was the OC in Pitt from 07-2011. In those 5 years they ran the ball 45.7% of the time, and passed it 54.3%.

In the preceding 5 years, the Steelers ran the ball 50.6% of the time and threw it 49.4%.

That is a fairly significant shift.

2007 pass to run 49% to 51%

2008 pass to run 55% to 45%

2009 pass to run 58% to 42%

2010 pass to run 53% to 47%

2011 pass to run 57% to 43%.

It should also be noted that 2010 was the year Roethlisberger served his suspension.

In the 4 games at the start of the season without the suspended Roethlisberger they ran the ball 58% of the time while throwing it 42% of the time.

In the 11 games Roethlisberger started they ran the ball 45% of the time and threw it 55% of the time.

Unless Pagano has a strong leash on Arians, the pig is going to be in the air quite a bit, as it should when all things are considered.

[TKnight24]

Tomlin, Ownership, GM, etc.

Arians was the OC in Pitt from 07-2011. In those 5 years they ran the ball 45.7% of the time, and passed it 54.3%.

In the preceding 5 years, the Steelers ran the ball 50.6% of the time and threw it 49.4%.

That is a fairly significant shift.

2007 pass to run 49% to 51%

2008 pass to run 55% to 45%

2009 pass to run 58% to 42%

2010 pass to run 53% to 47%

2011 pass to run 57% to 43%.

It should also be noted that 2010 was the year Roethlisberger served his suspension.

In the 4 games at the start of the season without the suspended Roethlisberger they ran the ball 58% of the time while throwing it 42% of the time.

In the 11 games Roethlisberger started they ran the ball 45% of the time and threw it 55% of the time.

Unless Pagano has a strong leash on Arians, the pig is going to be in the air quite a bit, as it should when all things are considered.

Yeah, 2011 definitely formed a BIG Gap between the Pass & Run. But I think Pagano has Faith in Arians. And like I said, it's not like we DON'T have the Talent to Spread the field. We could definitely move everyone around & create some Mismatches. But at the same time, I want to get Brown or whoever lines up in the Backfield some Carries. Instead of having them Pass Blocking all the Time

[Smonroe]

Who are the run first teams anyway? The Jags? Maybe the 49ers. The common thread is those teams aren't run first because they want to, but because their passing game is poor.

The Jets claim they enter to be run first. That will change as soon as teams stack the box.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Who are the run first teams anyway? The Jags? Maybe the 49ers. The common thread is those teams aren't run first because they want to, but because their passing game is poor.

The Jets claim they enter to be run first. That will change as soon as teams stack the box.

When it comes to carries, the top 10 last year were:

1 Houston

2 Denver

3 San Fran

4 Jacksonville

5 Kansas City

6 Miami

7 Oakland

8 Baltimore

9 Chicago

10 Cincy

Out of those 10, Schaub/Flacco/Palmer are the top 3 QB's. You have west coast offenses in Houston, San Fran and I believe Cincy was running one.

A lot of those teams also experienced injuries to the starting QB's. So that alters it a bit. Houston would likely a bit lower if Schaub plays all 16 games.

It is a mindset and while Pagano might have it, I'm not sure it can be instilled into this offensive line.

[oldunclemark]

When it comes to carries, the top 10 last year were:

1 Houston

2 Denver

3 San Fran

4 Jacksonville

5 Kansas City

6 Miami

7 Oakland

8 Baltimore

9 Chicago

10 Cincy

Out of those 10, Schaub/Flacco/Palmer are the top 3 QB's. You have west coast offenses in Houston, San Fran and I believe Cincy was running one.

A lot of those teams also experienced injuries to the starting QB's. So that alters it a bit. Houston would likely a bit lower if Schaub plays all 16 games.

It is a mindset and while Pagano might have it, I'm not sure it can be instilled into this offensive line.

Denver's pass-run ratio may change a little, agreed? :rolleyes:

[FireJimCaldwell]

Denver's pass-run ratio may change a little, agreed? :rolleyes:

Just a bit...

[Balzer40]

...We just dont have the line to be a power running team...

..and we dont know the ceiling for our new QB........If Luck is as good as we hope ...or better

........we'll open up the run game with frequent flier miles..

Luck will become Donald Brown's BFF..

What are you basing this assumption on Mark?

Is it just the history of each lineman? Because we have never seen this group play together so you or I or no one as of right now can say one way or another how they will perform together.

Is it that you think they aren't big and strong enough? Because we have some huge O-lineman now depending on who wins the starting jobs. Satale is our smallest O-lineman now and he's 300 lbs and has a reputation as a mauler.

Im just curious what makes you the authority on how our running game is going to perform. Because IMO we have upgraded at every position on the line with the exception of LG and Link or Reitz could have improved from last yr..

[Gavin]

...We just dont have the line to be a power running team...

..and we dont know the ceiling for our new QB........If Luck is as good as we hope ...or better

........we'll open up the run game with frequent flier miles..

Luck will become Donald Brown's BFF..

The key to running the ball is a good O Line not a QB, Maurice Jones Drew ran all over everybody last year and Gabbert didn't play very well, Frank Gore has been a really good running back in the NFL but they have at the very best a game manager at Quarterback and I dont even know if I would go that far yet

[NewColtsFan]

65% was the higher extreme, while I doubt we exceed it, I wouldn't be surprised at all to approach it.

Last season the league average pass to run ratio was 57.1% to 42.9%.

Last season the Colts horrible coaching staff had a pass to run ratio of 59.8% to 40.2% with the garbage that was under center for most of the season. If it were charted, I would say that the ratio was even higher when Painter was the QB, which was and still is absurd.

If they aren't letting the pig fly, then one has to question some of the off season moves.

I don't rule out that there will be more than one game (how many I don't know) where we may very well reach that figure. But, I think the those games will be games where we fall behind considerably and abandon the run early. I view those games as exceptions to the rule.

But I think most games will be close and reasonably competitive and I think we'll pass roughly 30-40 times per game. About 60% at 40 passes, and under 50% at 30 passes. Honestly, I think at the end of the year we'll average about 35 attempts a game. That would be a rough game plan. That's 560 throws for the season. Feels about right to me.

While I'm clearly pulling numbers out of my rear here, they feel reasonable to me, or put another way, they don't feel too far off.

Just my 2 cents...

[oldunclemark]

What are you basing this assumption on Mark?

Is it just the history of each lineman? Because we have never seen this group play together so you or I or no one as of right now can say one way or another how they will perform together.

Is it that you think they aren't big and strong enough? Because we have some huge O-lineman now depending on who wins the starting jobs. Satale is our smallest O-lineman now and he's 300 lbs and has a reputation as a mauler.

Im just curious what makes you the authority on how our running game is going to perform. Because IMO we have upgraded at every position on the line with the exception of LG and Link or Reitz could have improved from last yr..

I didnt know I was 'THE' authority..

I appreciate your passionate defense of our offensive line but.....assuming you are the authority

Let's look at us....

We're moving Linkenback fro tackle to guard right? New position.?

Anthony Costanzo has played 10 games and was considered a better pass blocker than a runblocker...right? Experinece?

Winstson Justice...is someone the Eagles let gofor a 6th round pick....He starts for us.....but you'd have to say he's a question mark.

Satele has 74 career starts and is solid but he has never played with any of the other four .

What do we have here..based on the history of each linemen.? We havent seen them play toegther becauese they havent.

I'd like to believe that a squadron of strangers can come together and be a power run blocking line but how realistic is that...?

If you consider our boys a 'power-run blocking mauling' line....all I can say Is I hope you are an offensive line genius

[oldunclemark]

The key to running the ball is a good O Line not a QB, Maurice Jones Drew ran all over everybody last year and Gabbert didn't play very well, Frank Gore has been a really good running back in the NFL but they have at the very best a game manager at Quarterback and I dont even know if I would go that far yet

Its not either-or..obviously

Part of our running trouble last year was that we couldn't throw until late in the year..

If Luck is accurate and effective downfield ..we'll be able to get 6-man fronts..and Donald Brown become Lenny Moore.

We need good line play and good passing to be able to run

[funktacious2]

When you've got a QB who can become an elite passer, take advantage of that. No need to worry about the run, I don't think the front office is going to just stop trying to make it better.

[Gavin]

Nope no need to worry about the run.....which keeps the defense off the field, I will add also without our run game in our Super Bowl run, we dont win that

[LJpalmbeacher2]

I hope we pass considerbly more than run but I think the ratio also depends on our defense.If our D is poor then we will be behind alot and have to pass but if our D keeps us in the game then we will try to keep opposind D's honest by running some.

[oldunclemark]

When you've got a QB who can become an elite passer, take advantage of that. No need to worry about the run, I don't think the front office is going to just stop trying to make it better.

right on, funky one! :dancing:

[gspdx]

If you consider our boys a 'power-run blocking mauling' line....all I can say Is I hope you are an offensive line genius

Just teach them to cut block like Shanahan did in Denver...

[oldunclemark]

Just teach them to cut block like Shannan did in Denver...

Ohhhhhhhhhh...

You did not say that! tell me you did not say that!!! :smack:

[gspdx]

Ohhhhhhhhhh...

You did not say that! tell me you did not say that!!! :smack:

Sorry - I couldn't resist.

[Balzer40]

I didnt know I was 'THE' authority..

I appreciate your passionate defense of our offensive line but.....assuming you are the authority

Let's look at us....

We're moving Linkenback fro tackle to guard right? New position.?

Anthony Costanzo has played 10 games and was considered a better pass blocker than a runblocker...right? Experinece?

Winstson Justice...is someone the Eagles let gofor a 6th round pick....He starts for us.....but you'd have to say he's a question mark.

Satele has 74 career starts and is solid but he has never played with any of the other four .

What do we have here..based on the history of each linemen.? We havent seen them play toegther becauese they havent.

I'd like to believe that a squadron of strangers can come together and be a power run blocking line but how realistic is that...?

If you consider our boys a 'power-run blocking mauling' line....all I can say Is I hope you are an offensive line genius

I didn't say I was the authority, but I also was not the one making statements about them not being a power run line.

Castonzo is in his 2nd yr. and he played very well as a rookie. One can only assume he will continue to improve.

Satele is a very solid C and at this point in their career's, is way better than Jeff Saturday.

McGlynn, may not be an all-pro, but he is a big strong Guard that IMO is way better than Pollack.

Justice has good potential with good coaching. And also IMO is better than Diem.

Thats 4 positions on the line that I believe is better than last yr.. Link or Reitz are still up in the air for now, but the point is. None of us have the knowledge to be making statements of absolute's concerning our O-line. Im sure that if they were really as bad as many fans seem to believe they are, Grigson would find a way to fix it. We all know he is not afraid to pull the trigger on an upgrade if he see's fit to do so.

[John Waylon]

You don't draft a QB#1, and Tight ends 2 & 3, to run the ball 50% of the time.

They are going to throw it 55-65% and from a structural point of view there won't be much change.

Oh well.

This is a hammer.

You need it because you're hitting the nail on the head.

[dgambill]

My opinion. We aren't running as much in practice because the qb, secondary, OL, new wrs, and our LBs need the most work/most evaluation in the pass game. I mean after the backs and OL learn their running lanes/play calls what else is there to work on. You don't want to risk injuries bashing away and the running game is the most fundamental basic part of the offense. I think this is clearly a result of this team needing more work defending, coverages, rookie receivers, protection schemes, and a rookie qb in the passing game.

I'm sure we will pass more than run. Probably a 55-57 pass to 43-45 run. Thats just the new NFL. I'm sure we will want to run as much as possible...score and opponents and success will dictate this. I still think one of our biggest priorities will be to establish the run first in almost every game and not to abandon it if at all possible.

[Thewholefnshow28]

You don't draft a QB#1, and Tight ends 2 & 3, to run the ball 50% of the time.

They are going to throw it 55-65% and from a structural point of view there won't be much change.

Oh well.

QFT. You do not draft Andrew Luck first overall to have him turn around and throw as much as Alex Smith did last year. We are going to be a past first team as long as Luck is here and I am completely fine with that.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I don't rule out that there will be more than one game (how many I don't know) where we may very well reach that figure. But, I think the those games will be games where we fall behind considerably and abandon the run early. I view those games as exceptions to the rule.

But I think most games will be close and reasonably competitive and I think we'll pass roughly 30-40 times per game. About 60% at 40 passes, and under 50% at 30 passes. Honestly, I think at the end of the year we'll average about 35 attempts a game. That would be a rough game plan. That's 560 throws for the season. Feels about right to me.

While I'm clearly pulling numbers out of my rear here, they feel reasonable to me, or put another way, they don't feel too far off.

Just my 2 cents...

It will vary from game to game. There will be games that the staff thinks throwing the ball will be the right way to go. There was a game vs. Green Bay in 2004, that if my memory serves me correctly Manning had thrown 14-16 passes before Edge had his first carry. Of course that was shootout, but in the 1st quarter they came out firing.

There will be games that they feel they can run the ball against a certain team and the passes will likely be lower in those games. If there is a large lead, they might be forced into a 50/50 ratio based on how well they can run the ball vs. a short passing game to move the chains to run out the clock.

35 attempts a game might be a fair target, though over the past 6 seasons that number was exceeded 68% of the time.

It will take some time to get any form of a pattern on Arians/Pagano, and even then it will be a bit distorted since the QB is a rookie.

[Warhorse]

I only want them to be able to run the ball when they must run the ball.

[mvbighead]

Of course anything is possible, but to me investing the way the team did with the top 3 draft picks rushing the ball 50%+ of the time would be an misuse of assets. When you add in the current group of offensive lineman/backs,etc, running the ball at that rate would be a huge mistake.

It's not a question of drafting Luck or any other QB, it's a question of their usage.

Of course there are also various definitions of "need of change".

Huge mistake? In year one with a rookie QB? Most teams attempt to rely heavily on their run game as their rookie passer transitions to the league, regardless of whether it is Mark Sanchez, Matt Ryan, or Andrew Luck.

TEs are versatile players that help on both sides of the ball. Eventually, I suspect one of our two TEs will be a premier receiver. But the fact is, they can heavily affect both the passing and running games.

I question your idea of that being a misuse. A misuse of Andrew Luck, to me, is having him take 5-7 step drops behind a horrible offensive line in a year when he is transitioning to a new league. Best to preserve him now and get him up to speed throughout the season.

Further, our past coaching staff misused their abysmal passers and heavily scewed their game to favor the pass, despite that our strength on offense (18) was no longer there. If I have Trent Dilfer as my starter, I am only going to make him pass enough to keep defenses honest.