Colts working on the pass first?

[Superman]

It will vary from game to game. There will be games that the staff thinks throwing the ball will be the right way to go. There was a game vs. Green Bay in 2004, that if my memory serves me correctly Manning had thrown 14-16 passes before Edge had his first carry. Of course that was shootout, but in the 1st quarter they came out firing.

There will be games that they feel they can run the ball against a certain team and the passes will likely be lower in those games. If there is a large lead, they might be forced into a 50/50 ratio based on how well they can run the ball vs. a short passing game to move the chains to run out the clock.

I was going to say something similar. Every game has its own identity, and every matchup is different. There might be some games where we spread it out and run very little, and then there might be some games where we decide to pound it. Much more important to me than the pass:run ratio is how successful we are in situational running. Can we run it on 3rd and 4, or is that going to be a passing down out of necessity? Can we run it on the goal line? Can we run it to end the half or to put the game away? I don't care if we're 70:30 pass to run, so long as we can run when we need to run.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Huge mistake? In year one with a rookie QB? Most teams attempt to rely heavily on their run game as their rookie passer transitions to the league, regardless of whether it is Mark Sanchez, Matt Ryan, or Andrew Luck.

TEs are versatile players that help on both sides of the ball. Eventually, I suspect one of our two TEs will be a premier receiver. But the fact is, they can heavily affect both the passing and running games.

I question your idea of that being a misuse. A misuse of Andrew Luck, to me, is having him take 5-7 step drops behind a horrible offensive line in a year when he is transitioning to a new league. Best to preserve him now and get him up to speed throughout the season.

Further, our past coaching staff misused their abysmal passers and heavily scewed their game to favor the pass, despite that our strength on offense (18) was no longer there. If I have Trent Dilfer as my starter, I am only going to make him pass enough to keep defenses honest.

I guess this is again me looking at the BIG PICTURE.

If the kid is as advertised then he needs to sling the pig. There is only way to see if he has it or not and that is by putting the ball in his hands and letting him throw the ball. Handing the ball off isn't going to test that.

All things considered he better be far better than Mark Sanchez, or even Matt Ryan for that matter, and yes I mean out of the gate that way. Is that too high of a standard? Obviously it is to some.

I haven't mentioned a 7 step drop, but throwing the ball 35+ times a game is not a misuse of him. If he's handing off 35+ times a game then it is a neglected asset. A short quick passing tree would be fine.

At this point in time there are two directions it can go. You test the kid and determine whether he has it, and if he does you progress. If he doesn't then you are in the market. That is why playing him from day 1 is important. The sooner you know the answer to that question the better off the franchise is, even if the answer to the question isn't favorable.

The horrible coaching staff in place over the past few years is well documented. So is my opinion on how they mishandled the offense, so that isn't news to me. That is a good example with Trent Dilfer and Painter/Orlovsky would be lucky to be as good as Dilfer on their best day. If Luck isn't better than that right off the bat, then I would be disappointed. 18 isn't here, and he will never be here again. Irsay made that decision and 12 is in place, and 12 is the one this team will win or lose with.

If they wanted a offense that was based around the running game, then there were different directions the team could have taken. They could traded the # 1 pick, possibly to Cleveland, picked up Richardson and Decastro and could have addressed the QB in round 2, or sought one in Free agency. They also hired the wrong OC to have a dominant running game in place, and as others have said, this OL isn't exactly a group of road graders or hogs.

If he's this never before seen talent, then they need to put it to use. Handing off 35 times a game isn't putting it to use.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I only want them to be able to run the ball when they must run the ball.

I was going to say something similar. Every game has its own identity, and every matchup is different. There might be some games where we spread it out and run very little, and then there might be some games where we decide to pound it. Much more important to me than the pass:run ratio is how successful we are in situational running. Can we run it on 3rd and 4, or is that going to be a passing down out of necessity? Can we run it on the goal line? Can we run it to end the half or to put the game away? I don't care if we're 70:30 pass to run, so long as we can run when we need to run.

I think everyone would like that. I think it is hard to accomplish without a concentrated effort.

10 yards is 10 yards whether it's a 7 yard run and a 3 yard pass, or a 9 yard pass with a 1 yard run. Execution is the key.

[Superman]

I think everyone would like that. I think it is hard to accomplish without a concentrated effort.

10 yards is 10 yards whether it's a 7 yard run and a 3 yard pass, or a 9 yard pass with a 1 yard run. Execution is the key.

But you want to run in your four minute offense, because you want the clock to keep running. Being able to pick up first downs with the run game is crucial. It's not the end of the world if you have to pass to do this, but it's not ideal either.

[FireJimCaldwell]

It will vary from game to game. There will be games that the staff thinks throwing the ball will be the right way to go. There was a game vs. Green Bay in 2004, that if my memory serves me correctly Manning had thrown 14-16 passes before Edge had his first carry. Of course that was shootout, but in the 1st quarter they came out firing.

Update:

They opened the game with 11 throws (9/11 131 yards 2 td) before Edge had his first attempt( a 12 man on the field penalty voided it).

Manning finished the first quarter 17/22 247 3 td's and the team had zero official rushing attempts.

Manning finished the first half 23/31 320 yards 5 td's and the had 5 rushes for 8 yards including 1 manning kneel down for -1 yards.

They were up 35-17 and won 45-31 so that approach worked that game.

Memroable game. Favre & Manning combined went 58/84 753 yards and 9 tds and 0 int.

Whether or not Arians opens a game with that much of a one-sided approach is hard to say. Maybe one day he will.

[FireJimCaldwell]

But you want to run in your four minute offense, because you want the clock to keep running. Being able to pick up first downs with the run game is crucial. It's not the end of the world if you have to pass to do this, but it's not ideal either.

You want to. I agree that is the goal. A 5 yard swing pass, and a 5 yard run likely eats the same amount of time off the clock.

If you can't run the ball when you want to then you better be fairly efficient at the short passing game. Luck will need to hit Fleener the way Manning would hit Clark on those 3rd & 3's if the team has similar issues with short yardage.

I agree.. you want to have a little Riggins+Hogs action, but that might be a lot to ask for.

[jskinnz]

"Powers-To-Be" Meaning Tomlin & Co.?? And I don't see what's really Wrong with that. They had the Speed at WR to Stretch the Field. Ward was the Underneath Guy and the Vet. I think they would've done fine like that. But I guess if he is Pbutt Happy... we have the Talent at WR & TE to Run that. And now with the Speed, I guess we could Stretch the Field

I have got to ask. You randomly capitalize words throughout a sentence. See the highlighted. Why?

[Tracy Denton]

It will vary from game to game. There will be games that the staff thinks throwing the ball will be the right way to go. There was a game vs. Green Bay in 2004, that if my memory serves me correctly Manning had thrown 14-16 passes before Edge had his first carry. Of course that was shootout, but in the 1st quarter they came out firing.

There will be games that they feel they can run the ball against a certain team and the passes will likely be lower in those games. If there is a large lead, they might be forced into a 50/50 ratio based on how well they can run the ball vs. a short passing game to move the chains to run out the clock.

35 attempts a game might be a fair target, though over the past 6 seasons that number was exceeded 68% of the time.

It will take some time to get any form of a pattern on Arians/Pagano, and even then it will be a bit distorted since the QB is a rookie.

True !! the ratio will be determined by whatever look Luck see's the defense giving him.

[Superman]

You want to. I agree that is the goal. A 5 yard swing pass, and a 5 yard run likely eats the same amount of time off the clock.

If you can't run the ball when you want to then you better be fairly efficient at the short passing game. Luck will need to hit Fleener the way Manning would hit Clark on those 3rd & 3's if the team has similar issues with short yardage.

I agree.. you want to have a little Riggins+Hogs action, but that might be a lot to ask for.

The only issue is that the five yard swing pass has a chance of falling incomplete.

I don't have a problem with passing in short yardage situations. There are times when you want the ball in your quarterback's hands, especially if he's one of the best. Manning to Clark on 3rd and 3 was as much about how good Manning and Clark were as it was about how inefficient the short yardage run game was. And their proficiency in those situations helped the short yardage run game as well, because you had to recognize that we were as likely to throw the ball as we were to run it. The league has changed, and that's true of practically every good team anymore.

But there's also a difference between 3rd and 3 when you're down 4 points late in the game, and 3rd and 3 when you're up 3 points late in the game. There are certain situations where you commit to the run, no matter what, even if you don't convert. I'd like to see us be able to convert those consistently. And if we can, I honestly don't care whether those are the only runs of the game. The idea that a balanced offense is necessary to win is antiquated. You need to be able to pick up 3rd downs and score points, plus limit turnovers.

[FireJimCaldwell]

The only issue is that the five yard swing pass has a chance of falling incomplete.

I don't have a problem with passing in short yardage situations. There are times when you want the ball in your quarterback's hands, especially if he's one of the best. Manning to Clark on 3rd and 3 was as much about how good Manning and Clark were as it was about how inefficient the short yardage run game was. And their proficiency in those situations helped the short yardage run game as well, because you had to recognize that we were as likely to throw the ball as we were to run it. The league has changed, and that's true of practically every good team anymore.

But there's also a difference between 3rd and 3 when you're down 4 points late in the game, and 3rd and 3 when you're up 3 points late in the game. There are certain situations where you commit to the run, no matter what, even if you don't convert. I'd like to see us be able to convert those consistently. And if we can, I honestly don't care whether those are the only runs of the game. The idea that a balanced offense is necessary to win is antiquated. You need to be able to pick up 3rd downs and score points, plus limit turnovers.

I agree... you have to be able to run it when you want to and when you need to, but that takes effort and execution.

I want a new car, but I can't snap my fingers and get it.. They won't run it just because they want to. They have to build into doing it.

[FireJimCaldwell]

True !! the ratio will be determined by whatever look Luck see's the defense giving him.

Maybe

[NewColtsFan]

It will vary from game to game. There will be games that the staff thinks throwing the ball will be the right way to go. There was a game vs. Green Bay in 2004, that if my memory serves me correctly Manning had thrown 14-16 passes before Edge had his first carry. Of course that was shootout, but in the 1st quarter they came out firing.

There will be games that they feel they can run the ball against a certain team and the passes will likely be lower in those games. If there is a large lead, they might be forced into a 50/50 ratio based on how well they can run the ball vs. a short passing game to move the chains to run out the clock.

35 attempts a game might be a fair target, though over the past 6 seasons that number was exceeded 68% of the time.

It will take some time to get any form of a pattern on Arians/Pagano, and even then it will be a bit distorted since the QB is a rookie.

Good post... good info....

I want the Colts to run more than most here for the following reasons...

-- A good running game will enhance the passing game. Make it easier to pass effectively.

-- A good running game will 'shorten' the game. With the clock running continuously, the game is effectively shortened. That's often how lesser teams beat better teams. Make the game as short as possible. Hide the defense by keeping them off the field as much as possible.

-- A good running team will help turn us into a better run defense. And that's our stated goal. We want to stop the run. OK. Well, the only way to do that is through practice and if we're running the ball in practice, I'd assume we'd be running the ball in games as well.

For recent examples of the above three.... see San Francisco, Houston and Tennessee.

All in all, I'm talking about a 35-30 pass/run ratio. I realize most here will want more passing and less running. But I've stated my reasons.

[LUCKyday]

You need to remember Luck Didnt get to go to mini camp either so they are probably makeing up for lost time with him

[Superman]

I agree... you have to be able to run it when you want to and when you need to, but that takes effort and execution.

I want a new car, but I can't snap my fingers and get it.. They won't run it just because they want to. They have to build into doing it.

Yup.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Good post... good info....

I want the Colts to run more than most here for the following reasons...

-- A good running game will enhance the passing game. Make it easier to pass effectively.

-- A good running game will 'shorten' the game. With the clock running continuously, the game is effectively shortened. That's often how lesser teams beat better teams. Make the game as short as possible. Hide the defense by keeping them off the field as much as possible.

-- A good running team will help turn us into a better run defense. And that's our stated goal. We want to stop the run. OK. Well, the only way to do that is through practice and if we're running the ball in practice, I'd assume we'd be running the ball in games as well.

For recent examples of the above three.... see San Francisco, Houston and Tennessee.

All in all, I'm talking about a 35-30 pass/run ratio. I realize most here will want more passing and less running. But I've stated my reasons.

It works both ways.. A good running game can open up the passing game, just as a good passing game can open up the running game. Which is one reason I liked the 2TE set the Colts would run with Dilger/Pollard and Pollard/Clark, and which is one of the biggest disappointments about last year. I was hoping to see more of Clark/Tamme with Manning calling the shots. That never materialized and with the year Tamme had in replace of Clark I feel it was set up to happen, but they didn't have a QB capable of using it to his advantage.

I'd love to see a great power running game. I'm not sure that is an option at this point.

I wanted a West Coast offense installed whether 18 was here or not. When he was booted out the door and the decision was made, I wanted a WCO even more due to Luck being familiar with it.

I agree the only way to improve something is by practicing it. It doesn't seem like based on the reports that are given on a near daily basis that they are spending much time developing that running game. So if and when there is a situation where the team needs to run 6 minutes off the clock, I'm not sure how successful they will be at doing so, and it might be left up to the short passing game to do so. That is fine as long as passes are completed, but if the pig hits the ground the clock stops.

Balance is a great thing. a 12 set one back 2 TE, 2WR is a perfect base offense to have balance with. With the ability of the two TE's, to shift from in tight to the slot, it's even more dynamic.

I just don't know if they can flip the switch and run the ball like Pagano seems to want to without building on that concept in practice.

[Superman]

I agree the only way to improve something is by practicing it. It doesn't seem like based on the reports that are given on a near daily basis that they are spending much time developing that running game. So if and when there is a situation where the team needs to run 6 minutes off the clock, I'm not sure how successful they will be at doing so.

...

I just don't know if they can flip the switch and run the ball like Pagano seems to want to without building on that concept in practice.

The other side of that is that you can work on the run game all you want in camp, but it doesn't matter until the bullets are live. There's very little tackling in camp, so the concept of having a smash mouth running game can't really be stressed in camp practices. That's something that has to be built on in the games.

It is interesting that we seem to be spending precious little time working on run plays in practice, but I'm not sure that spending more time running in practice would translate to a better run game.

Also, I think part of the reason we're throwing so much is because a) we want to get Luck a lot of reps and get reps for the backup quarterbacks, and b) we have some decisions to make at receiver, much more than we have to worry about the running back platoon. It's really between Moore and Carter for the third spot. At receiver, we have to figure out where Brazill, Sambrano, Adams, etc. fit in, and who is going to make the final 53.

[Smonroe]

When it comes to carries, the top 10 last year were:

1 Houston

2 Denver

3 San Fran

4 Jacksonville

5 Kansas City

6 Miami

7 Oakland

8 Baltimore

9 Chicago

10 Cincy

Out of those 10, Schaub/Flacco/Palmer are the top 3 QB's. You have west coast offenses in Houston, San Fran and I believe Cincy was running one.

A lot of those teams also experienced injuries to the starting QB's. So that alters it a bit. Houston would likely a bit lower if Schaub plays all 16 games.

It is a mindset and while Pagano might have it, I'm not sure it can be instilled into this offensive line.

I'm jumping back in a little late, but I wanted to comment on this. Thank FJC for the analysis. That does a good job showing why no team really wants to be run first. They're that way because they don't have faith or talent in their QB.

Sure, it's nice to run over people, but that just doesn't work in the NFL if it's your strength. I think our new QB will allow us to run when we want to since he's going to be a good one. Now we only need our line to go along with that philosophy.

[FireJimCaldwell]

The other side of that is that you can work on the run game all you want in camp, but it doesn't matter until the bullets are live. There's very little tackling in camp, so the concept of having a smash mouth running game can't really be stressed in camp practices. That's something that has to be built on in the games.

It is interesting that we seem to be spending precious little time working on run plays in practice, but I'm not sure that spending more time running in practice would translate to a better run game.

Also, I think part of the reason we're throwing so much is because a) we want to get Luck a lot of reps and get reps for the backup quarterbacks, and b) we have some decisions to make at receiver, much more than we have to worry about the running back platoon. It's really between Moore and Carter for the third spot. At receiver, we have to figure out where Brazill, Sambrano, Adams, etc. fit in, and who is going to make the final 53.

In years past I've been able to get away and head down to Spartanburg and watch the Panthers at camp. They sure as the world would work on their running game with live drills. I guess it depends on the mindset of the coach/GM/team etc, but they would work on their running game going full speed without red jersey's and such.

I guess it depends on what you want to work on and accomplish in camp.

I can see the reasoning of Luck being gone most of the spring and wanting to get him as much work as possible. Yet, I still think that will come at some compromise. Time will tell.

[Superman]

In years past I've been able to get away and head down to Spartanburg and watch the Panthers at camp. They sure as the world would work on their running game with live drills. I guess it depends on the mindset of the coach/GM/team etc, but they would work on their running game going full speed without red jersey's and such.

I guess it depends on what you want to work on and accomplish in camp.

I can see the reasoning of Luck being gone most of the spring and wanting to get him as much work as possible. Yet, I still think that will come at some compromise. Time will tell.

Have you done that in either of the past two seasons? I ask because the CBA imposed some significant restrictions on what can and can't be done in practice with respect to contact and hitting.

Like I said, I find it curious that we've reportedly spent so little time working on the run (this is an outside observation from a couple of different outlets; it could very well be that we've spent plenty of time working on the run, I don't know). But I don't think training camp drills necessarily translate to success in the run game.

We will definitely get a better idea of what we're working with come Sunday. The conjecture is fun, but none of us know anything.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Have you done that in either of the past two seasons? I ask because the CBA imposed some significant restrictions on what can and can't be done in practice with respect to contact and hitting.

Like I said, I find it curious that we've reportedly spent so little time working on the run (this is an outside observation from a couple of different outlets; it could very well be that we've spent plenty of time working on the run, I don't know). But I don't think training camp drills necessarily translate to success in the run game.

We will definitely get a better idea of what we're working with come Sunday. The conjecture is fun, but none of us know anything.

I went one Saturday last year and there was still quite a bit of contact. They were running goal line drills and it was a lot like a full squad man eat man type deal. Offense trying to punch into from the 2 and 3, and the defense trying to keep it out. I thought it was a bit odd, because it was full speed and I remember Peppers a few years ago pulverizing Brad Hoover the FB on a quick pitch on the corner. There was no half-speed or 3/4 speed about it. Last year was more of the same.

Another key question is how many practices are off-limits to the media. I know in reading about the Broncos that they've gone in their bubble a time or two due to inclement weather.

Maybe they are trying to concentrate on the running game in individual drills. Like you said, we will see Sunday.

[TKnight24]

I have got to ask. You randomly capitalize words throughout a sentence. See the highlighted. Why?

Habit I have when making Points or Something

[GoColts8818]

You don't draft a QB#1, and Tight ends 2 & 3, to run the ball 50% of the time.

They are going to throw it 55-65% and from a structural point of view there won't be much change.

Oh well.

QFT and not to mention resign Reggie Wayne when you let other free agents leave.

I think the goal is to run the ball more than we have in the past and when we run into a team that can slow down our pass be able to run the ball when we need it.

[mvbighead]

I guess this is again me looking at the BIG PICTURE.

If the kid is as advertised then he needs to sling the pig. There is only way to see if he has it or not and that is by putting the ball in his hands and letting him throw the ball. Handing the ball off isn't going to test that.

All things considered he better be far better than Mark Sanchez, or even Matt Ryan for that matter, and yes I mean out of the gate that way. Is that too high of a standard? Obviously it is to some.

I haven't mentioned a 7 step drop, but throwing the ball 35+ times a game is not a misuse of him. If he's handing off 35+ times a game then it is a neglected asset. A short quick passing tree would be fine.

At this point in time there are two directions it can go. You test the kid and determine whether he has it, and if he does you progress. If he doesn't then you are in the market. That is why playing him from day 1 is important. The sooner you know the answer to that question the better off the franchise is, even if the answer to the question isn't favorable.

The horrible coaching staff in place over the past few years is well documented. So is my opinion on how they mishandled the offense, so that isn't news to me. That is a good example with Trent Dilfer and Painter/Orlovsky would be lucky to be as good as Dilfer on their best day. If Luck isn't better than that right off the bat, then I would be disappointed. 18 isn't here, and he will never be here again. Irsay made that decision and 12 is in place, and 12 is the one this team will win or lose with.

If they wanted a offense that was based around the running game, then there were different directions the team could have taken. They could traded the # 1 pick, possibly to Cleveland, picked up Richardson and Decastro and could have addressed the QB in round 2, or sought one in Free agency. They also hired the wrong OC to have a dominant running game in place, and as others have said, this OL isn't exactly a group of road graders or hogs.

If he's this never before seen talent, then they need to put it to use. Handing off 35 times a game isn't putting it to use.

Yeesh. We drafted a QB 1st overall, so that means we're passing.

Sorry, but when I look at the big picture, trashing a rookie's confidence in his first year and forcing him to throw 35 times a game just because you drafted him 1st overall is pretty stupid. Most often, games will dictate what you do. It's not going to be based on who you drafted.

You seem to think that when we drafted Edge 4th overall, we were just going to forego the pass in favor of our new running back, despite the fact we drafted a QB 1st overall the year before. I suppose that means we were giving up on that QB, right?

Sorry guy, but you may be right on other posts, but you're simply not here. The draft does not dictate what you do. If we're facing a team with a stout pass defense, forcing Luck to make 30+ throws to battle test him isn't proving anything other than ignorance. Teams game plan for a reason. You don't break in a rookie QB by making him making 5-10 mistakes a game. I don't doubt that Luck can handle the pressure, but simply see it as a misuse of your offense when the game dictates otherwise.

You seem to imply that my suggestion is that we solely run the ball. It isn't. Luck will pass the ball. There is no questioning that. It's just not in our best interest to try and put a 60/40 split towards passing with a rookie passer. We may still do it, but there isn't some magic formula that dictates that our coaching staff is wrong for balancing out the pass and the run.

[jskinnz]

I am amazed at the barrage of non-stories that consistently come out of training camps. Put this "pass first" story right up there with them.

Personally I would be shocked if their focus in camp was on the run game. First, I don't believe it takes a rocket scientist to figure that passing game sychronicity takes more time to develop than the running game. As others have stated, they have all new components at the skill position so there is a dire need to get everyone on the same page, not to mention a new o'line as well.

Secondly, because they are working on the passing game in camp does not come close to meaning they will not try their darndest to be a physical running team once the games count.

In other words - nothing to see here.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Yeesh. We drafted a QB 1st overall, so that means we're passing.

Sorry, but when I look at the big picture, trashing a rookie's confidence in his first year and forcing him to throw 35 times a game just because you drafted him 1st overall is pretty stupid. Most often, games will dictate what you do. It's not going to be based on who you drafted.

You seem to think that when we drafted Edge 4th overall, we were just going to forego the pass in favor of our new running back, despite the fact we drafted a QB 1st overall the year before. I suppose that means we were giving up on that QB, right?

Sorry guy, but you may be right on other posts, but you're simply not here. The draft does not dictate what you do. If we're facing a team with a stout pass defense, forcing Luck to make 30+ throws to battle test him isn't proving anything other than ignorance. Teams game plan for a reason. You don't break in a rookie QB by making him making 5-10 mistakes a game. I don't doubt that Luck can handle the pressure, but simply see it as a misuse of your offense when the game dictates otherwise.

You seem to imply that my suggestion is that we solely run the ball. It isn't. Luck will pass the ball. There is no questioning that. It's just not in our best interest to try and put a 60/40 split towards passing with a rookie passer. We may still do it, but there isn't some magic formula that dictates that our coaching staff is wrong for balancing out the pass and the run.

I'm not sure what part of the current NFL you aren't understanding.

It's not about trashing anyone's confidence. It is about testing the player that was drafted.

That makes zero sense at all, but nice attempt to put "words in my fingertips".

Actually the draft has a lot to do with what you do. If the Colts traded #1 to Cleveland, and drafted Richardson and Decastro, which would obviously beef up the running game and acquired a lower level QB in a later round, then I highly doubt they would implement the same game plan as they will with drafting Luck. They would implement more of the power running game that some seem to think is about to take Indy by storm this year.

If he makes 5-10 mistakes a game he has no business being drafted #1 to start with. I will agree that the games dictate what you do, and a good coaching staff will do what their players do best, and you don't draft a QB#1 and 2 TE's to hand off 50%+ of the time,(unless you've got a combo of the 90's Cowboys OL and the Redskins Hogs in place) so again, they are going to throw the ball 55-65% of the time. They will have games where they do not hit 55% and they will have games where they likely exceed 70%.

Yes teams do game plan, and there will be teams that the Colts face they will feel they can run the ball better against others that they face. Just because that is the case that doesn't mean that the back doesn't fumble and the other team takes it down and gets a score. Most coaches have a high level of confidence in each game plan that they create, but half of them lose.

Nobody is claiming that there is a magic formula of 63.8% = Super Bowl, or 54.3% = 8 wins. Another failed attempt to make an assumption for someone else. You make it sound like I want him throwing 50 times a game. That's not the case. I just think the team will throw the ball more than they will run, and based on the make up of the team they should.

I guess at the end of the season we will see how right or wrong I am about this. I just see it closer to 60/40 than 50/50 and it will likely be closer to 55/45 as i stated to start with.

Sorry but there aren't any magical formula's or unicorns for that matter.

[mvbighead]

I'm not sure what part of the current NFL you aren't understanding.

It's not about trashing anyone's confidence. It is about testing the player that was drafted.

That makes zero sense at all, but nice attempt to put "words in my fingertips".

Actually the draft has a lot to do with what you do. If the Colts traded #1 to Cleveland, and drafted Richardson and Decastro, which would obviously beef up the running game and acquired a lower level QB in a later round, then I highly doubt they would implement the same game plan as they will with drafting Luck. They would implement more of the power running game that some seem to think is about to take Indy by storm this year.

If he makes 5-10 mistakes a game he has no business being drafted #1 to start with. I will agree that the games dictate what you do, and a good coaching staff will do what their players do best, and you don't draft a QB#1 and 2 TE's to hand off 50%+ of the time,(unless you've got a combo of the 90's Cowboys OL and the Redskins Hogs in place) so again, they are going to throw the ball 55-65% of the time. They will have games where they do not hit 55% and they will have games where they likely exceed 70%.

Yes teams do game plan, and there will be teams that the Colts face they will feel they can run the ball better against others that they face. Just because that is the case that doesn't mean that the back doesn't fumble and the other team takes it down and gets a score. Most coaches have a high level of confidence in each game plan that they create, but half of them lose.

Nobody is claiming that there is a magic formula of 63.8% = Super Bowl, or 54.3% = 8 wins. Another failed attempt to make an assumption for someone else. You make it sound like I want him throwing 50 times a game. That's not the case. I just think the team will throw the ball more than they will run, and based on the make up of the team they should.

I guess at the end of the season we will see how right or wrong I am about this. I just see it closer to 60/40 than 50/50 and it will likely be closer to 55/45 as i stated to start with.

Sorry but there aren't any magical formula's or unicorns for that matter.

Here's the problem. Your assertion is that we must pass, and pass a lot, because we drafted a QB #1 overall. We must test him, is basically what you're saying.

So what exactly is proven when you're playing a stout D and you pass 30 times and run 20 times vs when you pass 25 times and run 25 times? You're oversimplifying your argument. Basically, the only way to test Luck is to throw more than you run. I don't buy that.

Our team isn't failing to test their passer by rushing more than they pass when the situations dictate that they should. We have 4 years to test him, 4 GUARANTEED years. Had they drafted QB, WR, WR, you might have a point. But a TE is a dynamic player. We drafted two of them to give us a solid pair of TEs. That is where the game is headed, as evidenced by the pairing of Gronkowski and Hernandez. From that formation, you're equally suited to run or pass, as your TEs are better blockers than WRs, most typically.

My point is not that we WON'T pass more than we rush. My point is that our draft has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with an inclination that we will pass more than we run. TEs are versatile. They're not just pass catchers, and most WRs aren't either for that matter. Long story short, Luck will be proven this year (and the next, and the next) whether they run 50/50, 55/45, 60/40, or even 40/60. However they do it, he'll get his chances. As he succeeds, he'll likely get more chances. The draft won't be what dictated that. It'll be matchups, game planning, etc. But it makes zero sense to say that the draft is indicative of us passing more, when you consider that TEs aren't just receivers. We're going to run a lot of 2 TE sets. That will help both the pass and run, which should do nothing but help Luck progress.

[oldunclemark]

Here's the problem. Your assertion is that we must pass, and pass a lot, because we drafted a QB #1 overall. We must test him, is basically what you're saying.

So what exactly is proven when you're playing a stout D and you pass 30 times and run 20 times vs when you pass 25 times and run 25 times? You're oversimplifying your argument. Basically, the only way to test Luck is to throw more than you run. I don't buy that.

Our team isn't failing to test their passer by rushing more than they pass when the situations dictate that they should. We have 4 years to test him, 4 GUARANTEED years. Had they drafted QB, WR, WR, you might have a point. But a TE is a dynamic player. We drafted two of them to give us a solid pair of TEs. That is where the game is headed, as evidenced by the pairing of Gronkowski and Hernandez. From that formation, you're equally suited to run or pass, as your TEs are better blockers than WRs, most typically.

My point is not that we WON'T pass more than we rush. My point is that our draft has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with an inclination that we will pass more than we run. TEs are versatile. They're not just pass catchers, and most WRs aren't either for that matter. Long story short, Luck will be proven this year (and the next, and the next) whether they run 50/50, 55/45, 60/40, or even 40/60. However they do it, he'll get his chances. As he succeeds, he'll likely get more chances. The draft won't be what dictated that. It'll be matchups, game planning, etc. But it makes zero sense to say that the draft is indicative of us passing more, when you consider that TEs aren't just receivers. We're going to run a lot of 2 TE sets. That will help both the pass and run, which should do nothing but help Luck progress.

I think you may be wrong...because we'll do what we drafted to do...There were quality linemen available and we chose quality pass catchers instead...for our future

I hope you are wrong....because you must throw the ball a lot indoors with speed and experinced hands. Our best offensive players are our QBs and receivers..

We 'd do the other team a favor if we run 55-60% of the time.

But now that the hour is near......we're so much talking about an image in our heads...

we have not see the new 'Colts offense'...so we'll all have that recoirder rolling Sunday at 1 p.m.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Here's the problem. Your assertion is that we must pass, and pass a lot, because we drafted a QB #1 overall. We must test him, is basically what you're saying.

So what exactly is proven when you're playing a stout D and you pass 30 times and run 20 times vs when you pass 25 times and run 25 times? You're oversimplifying your argument. Basically, the only way to test Luck is to throw more than you run. I don't buy that.

Our team isn't failing to test their passer by rushing more than they pass when the situations dictate that they should. We have 4 years to test him, 4 GUARANTEED years. Had they drafted QB, WR, WR, you might have a point. But a TE is a dynamic player. We drafted two of them to give us a solid pair of TEs. That is where the game is headed, as evidenced by the pairing of Gronkowski and Hernandez. From that formation, you're equally suited to run or pass, as your TEs are better blockers than WRs, most typically.

My point is not that we WON'T pass more than we rush. My point is that our draft has ABSOLUTELY nothing to do with an inclination that we will pass more than we run. TEs are versatile. They're not just pass catchers, and most WRs aren't either for that matter. Long story short, Luck will be proven this year (and the next, and the next) whether they run 50/50, 55/45, 60/40, or even 40/60. However they do it, he'll get his chances. As he succeeds, he'll likely get more chances. The draft won't be what dictated that. It'll be matchups, game planning, etc. But it makes zero sense to say that the draft is indicative of us passing more, when you consider that TEs aren't just receivers. We're going to run a lot of 2 TE sets. That will help both the pass and run, which should do nothing but help Luck progress.

It's not that they must pass... It is that they will pass. Which has been well documented in this thread. I'm not going to waste my time repeating it. You either get it or you don't. That is on you.

[mvbighead]

It's not that they must pass... It is that they will pass. Which has been well documented in this thread. I'm not going to waste my time repeating it. You either get it or you don't. That is on you.

Says you. Must vs. Will? Really?!? If someone says they must pass, then they will pass. What part of your argument am I missing here?

My point has been against this comment:

You don't draft a QB#1, and Tight ends 2 & 3, to run the ball 50% of the time..

Lets looks at the Bengals. They drafted Palmer #1 overall, and SAT him for the season. Stafford? Yeah, they had him throw the ball 30+ times a game. How did that work out for them? Missed week 5 and week6, returned week 8, then missed week 14 and 15.

If your offensive line is questionable, you don't put your prized possession at QB in the line of fire 60+% of the game when he is still getting acclimated. There are teams that don't even put that prized possession on the field until a later date (wrong move in my opinion).

So, this season, and perhaps the next, it would not be wrong of the coaching staff to set the balance closer to 50/50. Lean on your running game some to see what needs you have in that department.

I, for one, would not advocate the team passing 60% of the time if Luck is getting licked on frequent downs. We're not going to win the SB this year, by most accounts. I suppose it could be possible, but gunning it more than running it will put Luck under greater pressure.

One last point and I am done:

If you want to look at one of the more successful QBs out there (in terms of SB wins) look at Ben Roethlisberger. An injury to Charlie Batch thrust him into a starting role in 2004 during Week 2. From that point, to the end of the season, Roethlisberger never once threw more than 28 passes, and more often than not, threw right around 20.

While he was not a 1st overall pick, they churned out 13 wins with a rookie passer. Sure, they were more set for the ground and pound, but the reality is, Big Ben proved himself in his first year in the league despite only throwing a meager 20 or so passes a game, completing 66% of his passes for 17TDs and 11INTs. This versus Stafford who in his rookie season threw an astonishing 35+ passes a game, for 53.3% completion with 13TDs and 20INTs.

So, it makes more sense, to me, to balance the game to start out with. Try to give Luck a better chance at staying healthy all season. Try to find a good rusher on our roster to work with. Hopefully Ballard who we have for a while, but perhaps Carter or Brown. In the end, not everyone is made like Peyton Manning. Throwing 30+ times a game in a pass happy league that has a mind numbing number of quality pass rushers like Ware, Mario, Freeney, Suggs, Peppers, etc. is going to lead to a lot of problems. Especially with a rookie under center.

The fact is, Luck may not perform as well as Cam in his rookie season. He may do better, he may not. But draft position should not dictate what we do.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I stand by that comment.

I've explained that comment.

2+_= 4

[mvbighead]

I think you may be wrong...because we'll do what we drafted to do...There were quality linemen available and we chose quality pass catchers instead...for our future

I hope you are wrong....because you must throw the ball a lot indoors with speed and experinced hands. Our best offensive players are our QBs and receivers..

We 'd do the other team a favor if we run 55-60% of the time.

But now that the hour is near......we're so much talking about an image in our heads...

we have not see the new 'Colts offense'...so we'll all have that recoirder rolling Sunday at 1 p.m.

I'm not trying to suggest that we'll run more than we pass. Simply that a move to promote balance helps out the team, and moreover Luck. It gives the rookie an easier transition, especially in year 1. As the team moves forward, I suspect the reigns will be further handed out. And, as smart as he sounds, I suspect he'll have control at the LOS. But if they insist on him running 45-50% of the time, I would have no problem with it.

Our past teams have not been concerned enough about a run game. Having a run game helps with time of possession, among other things, which helps the defense.

My biggest problem is some notion that passing 60% of the time is required when you draft a rookie 1st overall. Sure, in the long run, that's the idea. In the short term, why don't you let your rookie get a feel for the game?

[Jay Kirk]

Just a bit...

I cant think why anyone might think this

[Captain Americolt]

I have got to ask. You randomly capitalize words throughout a sentence. See the highlighted. Why?

Was thinking the same thing....

[Jay Kirk]

In all seriousness,right now protect this QB! If this OL turns in to what i think it will you will be able to run,Then you can divvy up ratios,but i think those come by what a deffense gives you to exploit IMO

[mvbighead]

In all seriousness,right now protect this QB! If this OL turns in to what i think it will you will be able to run,Then you can divvy up ratios,but i think those come by what a deffense gives you to exploit IMO

Oh no. That'd be stupid. We drafted a QB 1st overall, and added two TEs with the 2nd and 3rd picks. We have to pass NOW! /sarcasm

[Jay Kirk]

Oh no. That'd be stupid. We drafted a QB 1st overall, and added two TEs with the 2nd and 3rd picks. We have to pass NOW! /sarcasm

LOL

[Superman]

This is such a strange debate to me.

[FireJimCaldwell]

I guess we will just sit back and see what happens.

[WoolMagnet]

Tomlin, Ownership, GM, etc.

Arians was the OC in Pitt from 07-2011. In those 5 years they ran the ball 45.7% of the time, and passed it 54.3%.

In the preceding 5 years, the Steelers ran the ball 50.6% of the time and threw it 49.4%.

That is a fairly significant shift.

2007 pass to run 49% to 51%

2008 pass to run 55% to 45%

2009 pass to run 58% to 42%

2010 pass to run 53% to 47%

2011 pass to run 57% to 43%.

It should also be noted that 2010 was the year Roethlisberger served his suspension.

In the 4 games at the start of the season without the suspended Roethlisberger they ran the ball 58% of the time while throwing it 42% of the time.

In the 11 games Roethlisberger started they ran the ball 45% of the time and threw it 55% of the time.

Unless Pagano has a strong leash on Arians, the pig is going to be in the air quite a bit, as it should when all things are considered.

I live in Steeler country (Ugh!)

A good part of the switch to pass has been Pitt's problem with keeping RBs healthy and a deteriorated OL.

They've had injured RBs similar to our problem keeping safeties on the field.

[Fx Stryker]

You need to remember Luck Didnt get to go to mini camp either so they are probably makeing up for lost time with him

I'm sure if he is what they say he is then the few missed days won't be a factor.