J. Taylor Contract

[Superman]

2 hours ago, dw49 said:

 

My point was that Taylor was worth the money. I did mention Moss , so I understand your post. I wasn't knocking Moss , just trying to point out that Taylor's runs were special . Would you agree that teams will play the run a little more with Taylor in the game ?  

 

I don't really agree with that, in principle. I think defenses respond to personnel groupings more than they respond to specific personnel, especially in the run game. If the offense is in bigger personnel, defenses key on the run. 

 

In fact, with a home run threat like JT, smart defenses do well to give more cushion so that they have a better chance of preventing explosive carries. Without cushion, one missed tackle turns into a TD. 

 

The key is whether teams respect our passing game enough to come out of base defense. 

[chad72]

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

I think that’s about right.   I think Moss will get roughly 2 years for $10-11 mill total.   But I think to sign with the Colts,  that number would be a bit of a hometown discount.   
 

Because if Moss doesn’t sign with the Colts in Jan or Feb to that number then he may end up signing with another team who may value Moss even more and sign him to an even bigger deal.

Spotrac disagrees with you:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/zack-moss-47681/market-value/

 

My estimate of 4 years $24 million might be more in line, it won’t matter if he’s not a Colt next year since I don’t see us paying the RB position that much like you indicated, with Pittman, Moore, Stewart and Blackmon to pay.

 

We will see. Like Rhodes with Addai, they did great as a tandem and Rhodes looking for a good payday cashed in with the Raiders then.

[throwing BBZ]

14 hours ago, dw49 said:

Being one of the posters that thought he was deserving , I have an answer to those that didn't.  He deserved the contract as he's very good at football. Yes Moss gained similar yardage but Taylor gained his yardage with no running room. 

 

 You have it about right. A very good player.

But paid to be exceptional. Was he very good the previous 2 games? Chuckle 

 He is okay as a pass catcher and maybe that as a blocker. 

 We will just have to wait 3 years to see if it was a good decision. 

 

[bluebombers87]

I was never a big fan of the way JT handled things this offseason and into the first number of games. I was of the opinion to let him (and mostly his agent) find out after fooling around.

 

However, since the contract, it does appear he’s putting in the effort and earning back some of the fan base with his hard play.

 

I would like to showcase Moss more to save JT’s legs and allow him to show other teams what he has. We likely won’t be able to afford him and more importantly it’s the right thing to do.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

Spotrac disagrees with you:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/zack-moss-47681/market-value/

 

My estimate of 4 years $24 million might be more in line, it won’t matter if he’s not a Colt next year since I don’t see us paying the RB position that much like you indicated, with Pittman, Moore, Stewart and Blackmon to pay.

 

We will see. Like Rhodes with Addai, they did great as a tandem and Rhodes looking for a good payday cashed in with the Raiders then.

Chad?    Spotrac predicts 2 years and $9.2m.    I guessed 2 years and 10-11 mill.   I rounded up a little.   
 

Where did you see 4/24 as “more in line”?

 

For what it’s worth….  Spotrac is not the only website that will do projections.   PFF will also do them as well.  
 

By the way, I think 4/24 for Moss is possible.   But if Moss gets that I think it might come from another franchise.  I’m not sure the Colts want to go that much on Moss?    

[chad72]

22 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Chad?    Spotrac predicts 2 years and $9.2m.    I guessed 2 years and 10-11 mill.   I rounded up a little.   
 

Where did you see 4/24 as “more in line”?

 

For what it’s worth….  Spotrac is not the only website that will do projections.   PFF will also do them as well.  
 

By the way, I think 4/24 for Moss is possible.   But if Moss gets that I think it might come from another franchise.  I’m not sure the Colts want to go that much on Moss?    

Oh, my bad. I thought you meant $10-11 million per year, duh!!!  Scratch that then.

 

But I do think he’s worth what Miles Sanders/Ekeler were worth in their recent contracts for a good comparison, that’s where my number comes from. Just my two cents.

[Solid84]

8 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

Yeah but you are comparing Taylor’s second deal to Moss’s rookie deal in terms of the pay gap.  That’s not exactly fair.  Moss’s second contract isn’t going to be as big as Taylor’s but it’s going to be closer than 12 million apart.  I get it you were fine with keeping Moss and just paying him.  That’s a fine opinion to have but the Colts made another decision so rather you or me or anyone else agrees with it doesn’t really matter at this point.  The Colts choose to pay Taylor so clearly they felt he brings something that they can’t get from Moss or they wouldn’t have paid him.  

Sure, but Moss is not going to get $14m. Like Chad72 said, Moss is likely looking at Ekeler money - $20-24m over 4 years. Moss is giving us 90% of JT's production and he'll likely cost less than half of what JT does.

 

I know the Colts made their choice, but we're just discussing a topic here - no one is telling the Colts what to do or expected them to listen to us lol.

[NewColtsFan]

17 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Oh, my bad. I thought you meant $10-11 million per year, duh!!!  Scratch that then.

 

But I do think he’s worth what Miles Sanders was worth in his recent contract for a good comparison, that’s where my number comes from. Just my two cents.

I think 4/24 IS possible.   I’m just not sure it comes from the Colts.    Maybe.   If the Colts can get him to sign BEFORE free agency I think they’ve got a shot at getting a bit of a discount.  (2/10-3/15) But I think if the Colts can’t sign him and he gets to free agency, then I think your 4/24 is very likely, but I’d guess it’s from another team.   Hard to know.  
 

I assume you know Spotrac also projects Pittman to get 4/94.   $23.5m per.    I think if that happens, I don’t think that number comes from the Colts,   I think we’d let him walk. 

[chad72]

4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I assume you know Spotrac also projects Pittman to get 4/94.   $23.5m per.    I think if that happens, I don’t think that number comes from the Colts,   I think we’d let him walk. 

 

The guaranteed money is the key. WRs get what, about $40 million in guarantees??

 

If Pittman gets 4 years $80 mil. with half of it guaranteed, I think he takes it. Deebo got $41 mil. guaranteed, Diggs got $47 mil. guaranteed, so that is not out of the realm of reasonable. Since Pittman is our own, I did mention in an earlier post, 4 years $90 mil. could be the contract with possibly $40 mil. guaranteed that both Amari Cooper and Mike Williams also got. Will they push from $40 to $45 mil., not sure??

[NewColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

The guaranteed money is the key. WRs get what, about $40 million in guarantees??

 

If Pittman gets 4 years $80 mil. with half of it guaranteed, I think he takes it. Deebo got $41 mil. guaranteed, Diggs got $47 mil. guaranteed, so that is not out of the realm of reasonable. Since Pittman is our own, I did mention in an earlier post, 4 years $90 mil. could be the contract with possibly $40 mil. guaranteed that both Amari Cooper and Mike Williams also got. Will they push from $40 to $45 mil., not sure??

You make very good points, especially about the guarantees.   But I think the only way the Colts give him that is if Steichen sees Pitt as WR1.    But if he sees him as WR2,  then I think the Colts will likely lose Pitt.  

[chad72]

10 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

You make very good points, especially about the guarantees.   But I think the only way the Colts give him that is if Steichen sees Pitt as WR1.    But if he sees him as WR2,  then I think the Colts will likely lose Pitt.  

 

It would be quite the reset if they lose Pittman. I would lean towards signing Tee Higgins IF they let go of Pittman. That way, Pittman doesn't have another contract of an incoming WR as some sort of indictment against him if (say) Higgins gets 4 years $96 mil. and Pittman gets 4 years $84 mil.

 

It shouldn't work that way but players are human, and agents always inflate their egos and value. Higgins is a better WR than Pittman but the margin is not as huge as some of his fans suggest, IMO. In all likelihood, with Ballard's history, Pittman is re-signed, and we draft a WR in the draft the first 2 rounds for certain. If FA history is an indication, Higgins probably parlays any Colts offers to hit the $100 mil. mark anyways with some other team.

[Solid84]

8 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Sorry, you lost me.   JT is now getting $14m per.    You think he’s going to get $12m per MORE than Moss?    Moss is going to get much more than $2m per.   He’ll get offered more by the Colts, and possibly more from other teams in FA.  
 

One way or another, Moss will get PAID this off-season.   He deserves it.  
 

Have I somehow misunderstood your meaning?    

GoColts8818 pointed out the same thing and you're right. It's not fair comparing JT's new deal to Moss' rookie deal. But, I very much doubt Moss is getting 14, 12, 10 or even 8 per year. He's probably in that Ekeler range (5-6), but that's still only 40%-ish of what JT gets and he's giving us 90% of JT's production.

 

I'd like to keep Moss, but putting a total of $20m into the RB position seems like a bad idea to me.

[chad72]

1 minute ago, Solid84 said:

 

I'd like to keep Moss, but putting a total of $20m into the RB position seems like a bad idea to me.

 

RB ROI from the draft is pretty good. Plenty of later round RBs can be coached up.

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, chad72 said:

Oh, my bad. I thought you meant $10-11 million per year, duh!!!  Scratch that then.

 

But I do think he’s worth what Miles Sanders/Ekeler were worth in their recent contracts for a good comparison, that’s where my number comes from. Just my two cents.

I think I’d like another bite at the Zack Moss apple.   I’ve had a chance you’re-think it and I now think we’d offer Moss much more than 2/10 or 3/15.  
 

The Colts paid Hines 3/18.6 to be their RB2.    If the Colts can pay that to Hines, they can absolutely pay that and maybe more to Moss.   Because Moss is much closer to a RB1, and if Taylor goes down for any reason, you’d want Moss stepping in.   So I can see something closer to 3/20 or even 4/26 for Moss.   It all depends does Moss want to stay or does Moss want to Max out his second contract?   Thats an unknown. 
 

One thing to emphasize, the salary cap is about to go way way up due to (A) new and huge TV and Streaming money coming in and I think also an adjustment agreed to during the Covid years.   The cap actually went down in 20 and 21 and I think there will be an adjustment back up if memory serves me. 
 

I now think the Colts might be much more aggressive trying to retain Moss. 

[richard pallo]

1 hour ago, Solid84 said:

GoColts8818 pointed out the same thing and you're right. It's not fair comparing JT's new deal to Moss' rookie deal. But, I very much doubt Moss is getting 14, 12, 10 or even 8 per year. He's probably in that Ekeler range (5-6), but that's still only 40%-ish of what JT gets and he's giving us 90% of JT's production.

 

I'd like to keep Moss, but putting a total of $20m into the RB position seems like a bad idea to me.

I don’t know.  We gave Hines a pretty nice second contract.  Maybe Moss would be happy with something similar knowing his role would be Taylor’s backup.  If he leaves he better pick a team with a good OL.  He has that here and that has helped propel him to a good year.  I think he would stay if we gave him a contract similar to Hines.  We will see.

[GoColts8818]

2 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I don’t know.  We gave Hines a pretty nice second contract.  Maybe Moss would be happy with something similar knowing his role would be Taylor’s backup.  If he leaves he better pick a team with a good OL.  He has that here and that has helped propel him to a good year.  I think he would stay if we gave him a contract similar to Hines.  We will see.

Yeah Ballard is going to have a busy off-season figuring out what to do with Moss, Gardner, Stewert, Moore, and Pittman.  Doubt he keeps everyone.

 

[chad72]

18 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Yeah Ballard is going to have a busy off-season figuring out what to do with Moss, Gardner, Stewert, Moore, and Pittman.  Doubt he keeps everyone.

 

 

You did leave out Blackmon but that is fine.  

 

My order of priority would be Gardner Minshew, Michael Pittman, Kenny Moore, Grover Stewart, and then Moss and Blackmon.

[chad72]

44 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I think I’d like another bite at the Zack Moss apple.   I’ve had a chance you’re-think it and I now think we’d offer Moss much more than 2/10 or 3/15.  
 

The Colts paid Hines 3/18.6 to be their RB2.    If the Colts can pay that to Hines, they can absolutely pay that and maybe more to Moss.   Because Moss is much closer to a RB1, and if Taylor goes down for any reason, you’d want Moss stepping in.   So I can see something closer to 3/20 or even 4/26 for Moss.   It all depends does Moss want to stay or does Moss want to Max out his second contract?   Thats an unknown. 
 

One thing to emphasize, the salary cap is about to go way way up due to (A) new and huge TV and Streaming money coming in and I think also an adjustment agreed to during the Covid years.   The cap actually went down in 20 and 21 and I think there will be an adjustment back up if memory serves me. 
 

I now think the Colts might be much more aggressive trying to retain Moss. 

 

We are sitting on enough cap space to sign Minshew (say $8 mil. average), Pittman (say $20 mil.), Moore (say $10 mil.), Stewart (say $12 mil.), and then Moss and Blackmon have about a total avg. of $10-12 mil. amongst them?? That accounts for about $65 mil. worst case scenario, and leaves us with another $20 mil. to sign a quality free agent or two mid tier ones.

[throwing BBZ]

19 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

Yeah Ballard is going to have a busy off-season figuring out what to do with Moss, Gardner, Stewert, Moore, and Pittman.  Doubt he keeps everyone.

 

 

 And Blackmon.

 Tyquan Lewis is proving himself as a valuable rotation piece.

  Zaire will want to be paid.

[richard pallo]

2 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 And Blackmon.

 Tyquan Lewis is proving himself as a valuable rotation piece.

  Zaire will want to be paid.

Zaire was paid last year.

[NewColtsFan]

1 minute ago, chad72 said:

 

We are sitting on enough cap space to sign Minshew (say $8 mil. average), Pittman (say $20 mil.), Moore (say $10 mil.), Stewart (say $12 mil.), and then Moss and Blackmon have about a total avg. of $10-12 mil. amongst them?? That accounts for about $65 mil., and leaves us with another $20 mil. to sign a quality free agent or two mid tier ones.

It’ll be interesting to see if the Colts want to go that high for Minshew?   I’m not sure they want to go that high for any QB2, maybe not even Minshew.    
 

The rest seem roughly about right.  

[DougDew]

17 hours ago, Solid84 said:

I liked JT a lot today, but I feel every time Moss gets carries he shows why a team doesn't need to hand over $14m a year to a RB.

JTs price is built on him breaking off some long runs for TDs.  That's what made him an NFL name.  He needs to do that several times in a season to earn that level of money, IMO. 

 

The stuff he has been doing since his return is very good, but not really elite.

[chad72]

6 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

It’ll be interesting to see if the Colts want to go that high for Minshew?   I’m not sure they want to go that high for any QB2, maybe not even Minshew.    
 

The rest seem roughly about right.  

 

The Steichen system fit plus having gone through about 75% of the season as starter with about 50% of typical league backup QB pay (Brissett is paid $8.5 mil., Tyrod Taylor $6.9 mil.), should get Minshew close to $8 mil, IMO. He is paid $3.5 mil right now, I can see him double that easily if his agent sheds light on what is happening league wide with QB injuries. They could always do a 2 year $12 mil. to give him some security while lowering average.

[NewColtsFan]

2 minutes ago, DougDew said:

JTs price is built on him breaking off some long runs for TDs.  That's what made him an NFL name.  He needs to do that several times in a season to earn that level of money, IMO. 

 

The stuff he has been doing since his return is very good, but not really elite.

Taylor is playing his way into shape.  Taylor is not yet at mid-season form.   He’ll eventually get there.   But even at non-elite, Taylor is special. 

[tweezy32]

Taylor is the better back yes, but if we didnt have him this year i dont think we would have lost a step in our run game. Moss was #2 in rushing with missing a game. He was killing it for us. Taylor does deserve the contract yes but dont get confused with how great Moss was doing. If taylor wasnt back Moss would already almost be at the 1k mark i bet.

[Solid84]

15 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

We are sitting on enough cap space to sign Minshew (say $8 mil. average), Pittman (say $20 mil.), Moore (say $10 mil.), Stewart (say $12 mil.), and then Moss and Blackmon have about a total avg. of $10-12 mil. amongst them?? That accounts for about $65 mil. worst case scenario, and leaves us with another $20 mil. to sign a quality free agent or two mid tier ones.

We have 24 free agents after this season. Most of them will cost the league minimum but we likely won’t have $20 for other free agents. 

[NewColtsFan]

6 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

The Steichen system fit plus having gone through about 75% of the season with about 50% of typical league backup QB pay (Brissett is paid $8.5 mil., Tyrod Taylor $6.9 mil.), should get Minshew close to $8 mil, IMO.

I don’t think that’s typical league backup pay at all.   I think those are the high end backups.   Plenty of backups make closer to what the Colts signed Minshew too….  That’s $3.5m.  
 

Could the Colts double his pay?    Maybe. 
 

Either way….  You could be right, but I’m not convinced….   Yet. 

[dw49]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

I think I’d like another bite at the Zack Moss apple.   I’ve had a chance you’re-think it and I now think we’d offer Moss much more than 2/10 or 3/15.  
 

The Colts paid Hines 3/18.6 to be their RB2.    If the Colts can pay that to Hines, they can absolutely pay that and maybe more to Moss.   Because Moss is much closer to a RB1, and if Taylor goes down for any reason, you’d want Moss stepping in.   So I can see something closer to 3/20 or even 4/26 for Moss.   It all depends does Moss want to stay or does Moss want to Max out his second contract?   Thats an unknown. 
 

One thing to emphasize, the salary cap is about to go way way up due to (A) new and huge TV and Streaming money coming in and I think also an adjustment agreed to during the Covid years.   The cap actually went down in 20 and 21 and I think there will be an adjustment back up if memory serves me. 
 

I now think the Colts might be much more aggressive trying to retain Moss. 

 

When the Colts paid Hines , Taylor was in his rookie deal. Big difference now.....

[Solid84]

I like both JT and Moss a lot, but I think Ballard got us into a corner with that contract for JT. 
 

That contract was for a 3-down back. A workhorse. JT is only getting 60-70% of the snaps with Moss in the mix. If we pay 5-6 for Moss as well it’s going to skew it even more. That would be 20-ish mill for, essentially, a 3 down backs carries. That’s not just market resetting, that completely blows the top off. 

[Dingus McGirt]

Love reading posts arguing over very good vs great.

[NewColtsFan]

11 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

When the Colts paid Hines , Taylor was in his rookie deal. Big difference now.....

I don’t connect those dots.   The salary cap is about to go way up, the Colts have plenty of money to afford Moss if they want.   I believe they will make a serious try.   
 

I think the question will be whether Moss wants to stay or try to max his second contract by going all the way to free agency.  

[Solid84]

7 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

Love reading posts arguing over very good vs great.

If that’s what we’re relegated to, it’s not so bad. 

[husker61]

Unlike most here, I don’t think Pittman is the kind of receiver most here think he is. I wouldn’t give him top receiver money. I don’t think any team is game planning around not letting him beat you, that’s what top receivers do. I would let him walk and sign that type of receiver for a little more or take a shot at two in the draft.

 

stewart in the top player I want the colts to sign. He may not get as big of a contract as some think because of the suspension, for many risk reasons.

[dw49]

4 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I don’t connect those dots.   The salary cap is about to go way up, the Colts have plenty of money to afford Moss if they want.   I believe they will make a serious try.   
 

I think the question will be whether Moss wants to stay or try to max his second contract by going all the way to free agency.  

 

If they didn't have so many good players hitting free agency , I might agree with you. If they decide to ket Pittman go , I would think I slight chance of Moss staying. Otherwise , just too many players to sign and then throw in the fact we need a CB , an upgrade at safety and probably another LB makes me think no way. We can draft a #2 RB on day 3. This can't be a RB by committee next year.

[NewColtsFan]

4 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

If they didn't have so many good players hitting free agency , I might agree with you. If they decide to ket Pittman go , I would think I slight chance of Moss staying. Otherwise , just too many players to sign and then throw in the fact we need a CB , an upgrade at safety and probably another LB makes me think no way. We can draft a #2 RB on day 3. This can't be a RB by committee next year.

Plenty of moving parts.   Some filled by the draft, some by free agency.   But if the Colts want to go hard after Moss they’ve got the ability to do it.   Ultimately it will be Mosses call.   Some team may pay him as RB1, and that may make the difference. 

[Nesjan3]

I mean you look at the last 15 SB winners not a single one of those teams had a RB on a contract anywhere near JT's. They all have their cap allocated to QB's, WR's and Pass Rushers. However I think our situation is unique. Were not contending for a SB and JT is a great support for AR and the offense while we build.  I would hope that "if" Ballard ever gets us there, by the time we are ready to compete our salary cap is a placed correctly. 

[richard pallo]

This is an unusual year for us.  We have a backup quarterback playing the majority of games.  I’m sure Ballard will offer him another contract but I wouldn’t go overboard.  If he rejects it so be it.  Our other FA are more important.  There will be a lot of back up quarterbacks available.  With probably quite a few former starters dropping into those roles and hitting FA.  If they want him back I’m sure they will try to sign him.  But our other FA have a higher priority imo.

[Tsarquise]

17 hours ago, dw49 said:

 

Ok... here ya go. The post I answered inferred that Moss was closed to Taylor as a RB. I said comparng Moss to Taylor is like comparing a brain surgeon to a blacksmith >.That would mean that in my opinion Taylor is much more skilled than Moss. i

Isn't a blacksmith quite skilled too? 

[tweezy32]

53 minutes ago, tweezy32 said:

Taylor is the better back yes, but if we didnt have him this year i dont think we would have lost a step in our run game. Moss was #2 in rushing with missing a game. He was killing it for us. Taylor does deserve the contract yes but dont get confused with how great Moss was doing. If taylor wasnt back Moss would already almost be at the 1k mark i bet.

@NewColtsFan @richard pallo Whats confusing about this post? Just curious why yall think its confusing...

[dw49]

2 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Plenty of moving parts.   Some filled by the draft, some by free agency.   But if the Colts want to go hard after Moss they’ve got the ability to do it.   Ultimately it will be Mosses call.   Some team may pay him as RB1, and that may make the difference. 

 

Of coarse they will have the "ability" to use say 5 million of a 255 million $ salary cap on Moss. It's my opinion they will use it on a more pressing need as they have already committed 14 mill to JT. Plus as you infer , Moss might choose to sign with a team that does not have a JT caliber RB on their team.