Best Available - or - Fill a Need

[sb41champs]

Ahh - the age old dilemma regarding the NFL Draft.

 

Do you draft:

 

1.  Best available player on the Colts board - regardless of position?

2.  A position of need - regardless of what potential quality NFL player you might be passing up?

 

Justify your choice.

[GoColts8818]

It’s the best available player that fills a need not either or.

[ChuggaBeer]

22 minutes ago, sb41champs said:

Ahh - the age old dilemma regarding the NFL Draft.

 

Do you draft:

 

1.  Best available player on the Colts board - regardless of position?

2.  A position of need - regardless of what potential quality NFL player you might be passing up?

 

Justify your choice.

 

 

My justification:   If its the BPA on the Colts board then that is what they are taking.   I am not sure I can remember Ballard ever taking a need over a better player   If two players are rated close then yea he would take need. But otherwise it's BPA. 

 

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/4/27/15442626/taking-an-in-depth-look-at-what-colts-fans-should-expect-from-chris-ballards-draft-philosophy

 

 

Quote

“We’ll never pass up a special player. We just, we won’t do that. And so to me, when you draft for need is when you get in problems. So every round, we’ll make sure we’re taking the best player in the round. Now there’s always core positions that you’re going to look for, pass rushers, tackles, corners, those are always going to be front-line positions and they’re going to go fast. I mean, those guys, they come off the board fast in the draft. But we’ll always be looking for those core positions and we’ll always, always be looking for the best player.” 

 

[Mackrel829]

You should take the BPA in the early rounds of the draft almost exclusively with the exception of quarterbacks.

 

If two guys are very close together and one plays a position that needs to be filled then take that guy. If there's a clear line of separation between one player and the others on the board then you take him.

 

The only real holes on the roster now are LT and WR but I'm fine taking another position if that's what the talent dictates.

 

WR is supposed to be pretty deep and WR is a position that can be somewhat relies upon to contribute immediately so this might be a year in which BPA and need align, which is obviously the most ideal scenario.

[ProblChld32]

I’m almost certain that the BPA will fill a need regardless of whom it is. The way the cards may fall an impact player is likely to fall to us at WR, Tackle, or DB possibly even a QB

[gspdx]

Didn't I see in the past that need is factored in to the overall draft board?  So once you rank your board if you take the top guy on your board you have already considered how much "need" plays into it.

 

So you stick to your draft board and you take the highest player on your board that is available.  

[stitches]

The best option is neither... 

 

IMO the best option is what I call Best Value Available... it's similar to BPA, but it includes things like positional value. 

 

My justification is - when drafting you are acquiring a long-term asset so you shouldn't be concerned with short term needs - there is a TON of turnover in the league so needs change all the time - just get the player that you project to give you the best value over the rookie contract+possible extension to that rookie deal. In the long-term IMO this will give you the best results and over time you will creat better overall team. 

 

 

[ChuggaBeer]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

The best option is neither... 

 

IMO the best option is what I call Best Value Available... it's similar to BPA, but it includes things like positional value. 

Good way to put it.  Also it will depend on how many players that are graded closely are still left    Maybe you reach for the LT if the last good one is on the board and pass on a WR because there are others closely graded  Not sure I am explaining my thinking right  

[holeymoley99]

4 minutes ago, ChuggaBeer said:

Good way to put it.  Also it will depend on how many players that are graded closely are still left    Maybe you reach for the LT if the last good one is on the board and pass on a WR because there are others closely graded  Not sure I am explaining my thinking right  

Explained it clear as day and correct where the fall off comes will come into play why we may not see a wr until round 3 and te round 2.

[Goatface Killah]

Fill a need with the best player available. Which is what these teams do 99% of the time.

 

 

[jvan1973]

3 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:

Fill a need with the best player available. Which is what these teams do 99% of the time.

 

 

Not according to most every gm ever.    They don't skip over a superior talent to draft an inferior player that is deemed a need.    You take the best player,  unless it's qb and you already have your qb

[jonjon]

It's a mix. It's almost always a mix. It's not always BPA because what if the BPA is a kicker? You're going to draft him in Round 1? Thinkin not. Teams have needs and they're going to want to fill those needs with the best play who fulfills that need. But the devil's in the details as always and these things vary. Teams always have multiple needs, opinions vary on who is "best" etc.

[Jason_]

13 minutes ago, jonjon said:

It's a mix. It's almost always a mix. It's not always BPA because what if the BPA is a kicker

 

You, like most people, take the phrase 'best player available' incorrectly. As others have said, they take need and positional value into account when ranking the players on their board. So a kicker would have to be extraordinary to even be on their draft board and even then it's going to be a low round grade. Unless we're talking about an extremely poorly run franchise like the jags

[Indeee]

Christian Watson. No Brainer.

[Bert Johns]

You should always draft by need. Football is a team sport. A team is not a bunch of best available players. For instance. If the best available player is a defensive lineman every time your draft choice is up you have one crappy team. You fill the holes you have to make you TEAM better. Team is the optimal word here.

[MikeCurtis]

16 minutes ago, Indeee said:

Christian Watson. No Brainer.

If he is there .... he is one of 5 or 6 I would be happy with

[Smonroe]

It will be the best available player on their board, not Mel’s or McShays, etc…for the first four or five rounds.  
 

After that, if you watched the video last year it looked like Ballard made the decision to pick Sam that second.  It looked like he surprised everyone.  

[ChuggaBeer]

12 minutes ago, Bert Johns said:

You should always draft by need. Football is a team sport. A team is not a bunch of best available players. For instance. If the best available player is a defensive lineman every time your draft choice is up you have one crappy team. You fill the holes you have to make you TEAM better. Team is the optimal word here.

Couldn't disagree more.  If in the 2022 draft the BPA is a RB. I am pretty sure the Colts would look at the NEXT BPA and go from there.      Anyway like Smonroe (how the hell do you pronounce that?) said.    Its the Colts board not the media or fans board. 

 

I'm almost never surprised by the pick.   Because I realize I don't have the insight the scouts do 

[csmopar]

2 hours ago, sb41champs said:

Ahh - the age old dilemma regarding the NFL Draft.

 

Do you draft:

 

1.  Best available player on the Colts board - regardless of position?

2.  A position of need - regardless of what potential quality NFL player you might be passing up?

 

Justify your choice.

BPA

[Goatface Killah]

51 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Not according to most every gm ever.    They don't skip over a superior talent to draft an inferior player that is deemed a need.    You take the best player,  unless it's qb and you already have your qb

I dont care what they say, I am talking about what they actually do.

 

 

[rockywoj]

I vote for … when the two shall meet (BPA = PON)

 

If I were running it, I’d have a listing of BPA by position and then when it became my turn to pick, I would weigh the BPA rating of the top player in each position and then consider need.  I would also look at what is available after my pick at each position, because you might take a slightly lesser BPA that fills need, if there’s a not too far off BPA that will be available with your next pick, and vice versa.  Basically, I think it is plain lunacy to put on the blinders and say it’s an either or proposition of choosing need or BPA as strict mantra.

[Goatface Killah]

On the last episode of with the next pick, the Colts clearly had "top 8 needs" written on their board.

 

[ChuggaBeer]

6 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:

On the last episode of with the next pick, the Colts clearly had "top 8 needs" written on their board.

 

Of course they do.     But that board is also for FA etc. An offseason TO-DO list 

 

When they set up BPA if it is a close decision they go need.    or even if they have to reach a little   

 

[jonjon]

 

 

39 minutes ago, J@son said:

You, like most people, take the phrase 'best player available' incorrectly. 

 

Nope, afraid that's you. BPA means exactly that: the best player available. Period. Not "best fit for team X based on his talent and their needs and etc etc." For example, if a team is drafting and Kyle Hamilton and Kenny Pickett are both available, Hamilton is the BPA between the two. In fact, he's considered by many to be the overall BPA in the entire draft. You won't read that about Pickett anywhere. Does that mean the team will or should draft Hamilton? The answer is it depends. How badly to they need a QB? How bad is their secondary? Is this a top 5 pick or pick #23? etc.

 

But wait...if Hamilton is the BPA if the entire draft, why isn't anyone predicting Hamilton to go #1? Because he's a safety, and that position isn't considered as important as things like DE or QB. Position is another factor in this complex equation that some of you are trying to oversimplify. 

 

Again, when drafting, it's a mix. GMs have to take many things into account and how much each matters vs the other depends on the specifics of that unique situation. Obviously they take into account team needs; it would be laughably stupid not to. But how good a player is overall has to be considered as well. If you need say a RB badly but when your pick rolls around there isn't one considered nearly good enough to draft with that pick, it wouldn't make sense to make a huge reach just so you have a RB.

 

But...if in that situation there's a RB that's about worth where they're picking, or even if he's considered slightly less than that, and there isn't another player that's clearly a significantly better value, or it's really close, they're most likely to take the RB. 

 

There is no hard and fast "you always draft need" or "you always draft BPA." That's ridiculous. Again, GMs take many factors into account and try to find the optimal mix of all of them.

[Goatface Killah]

Just now, ChuggaBeer said:

Of course they do.     But that board is also for FA etc. An offseason TO-DO list 

 

When they set up BPA if it is a close decision they go need.    or even if they have to reach a little   

 

They put guys into tiers and pick out of those tiers, but its based off need.

 

But I would argue they are much more likely to pick out of a lower tier based off need than to pick a player they dont need at all just because he is in a higher tier. 

[jonjon]

20 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

I vote for … when the two shall meet (BPA = PON)

 

If I were running it, I’d have a listing of BPA by position and then when it became my turn to pick, I would weigh the BPA rating of the top player in each position and then consider need.  I would also look at what is available after my pick at each position, because you might take a slightly lesser BPA that fills need, if there’s a not too far off BPA that will be available with your next pick, and vice versa.  Basically, I think it is plain lunacy to put on the blinders and say it’s an either or proposition of choosing need or BPA as strict mantra.

Exactly, thank you

[ChuggaBeer]

3 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:

They put guys into tiers and pick out of those tiers, but its based off need.

 

But I would argue they are much more likely to pick out of a lower tier based off need than to pick a player they dont need at all just because he is in a higher tier. 

Ballards word not mine:    https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/4/27/15442626/taking-an-in-depth-look-at-what-colts-fans-should-expect-from-chris-ballards-draft-philosophy

 

Quote

“We’ll never pass up a special player. We just, we won’t do that. And so to me, when you draft for need is when you get in problems. So every round, we’ll make sure we’re taking the best player in the round. Now there’s always core positions that you’re going to look for, pass rushers, tackles, corners, those are always going to be front-line positions and they’re going to go fast. I mean, those guys, they come off the board fast in the draft. But we’ll always be looking for those core positions and we’ll always, always be looking for the best player.”

Quote

“The one thing I want you to understand,” Ballard said, “I think teams make big mistakes in the draft, and look I’ve been a part, Lord knows I haven’t been perfect in the teams I’ve been on, we’ve all made mistakes. But I don’t ever want to pass up a really good player that I think has a long career in this league that fits our criteria of what we want. So we’ll always be looking to add, if there’s a player in a round that we identify and we say, ‘ok, this is a guy we think will be a good Colt, fits our criteria,’ we won’t pass that guy up.”

Quote

“Best player. Best talent. Yeah, absolutely. Now, if it’s even, we’ll go with the need. But look, we put them through an exhausting process. I mean, we take each player and from the tape, from the film, it all matters. Everything matters. I always laugh when people say the workouts don’t matter; why do we work them out? Absolutely they matter. But the workout has to match the tape. So every level of the evaluation matters, from the tape, to the workout, to the interviews, to the research you do on the player, to the medical, it all matters. And then they’ve got to fit. And look, if there’s one thing we will not do, is if there is a player in the round, even if we’re loaded at the position, we’ll still take the player. I mean, I take Dee Ford as an example. We had Tamba Hali and Justin Houston that were humming, but we saw a player that we liked in Kansas City that could rush the passer, and that’s who we ended up choosing.”

 

[Goatface Killah]

Just now, ChuggaBeer said:

Ballards word not mine:    https://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/4/27/15442626/taking-an-in-depth-look-at-what-colts-fans-should-expect-from-chris-ballards-draft-philosophy

 

 

And again, I dont care what he says. Words mean nothing. I look at what hes actually done. 

 

How many picks has he made that havent been needs? Taylor maybe? Any others? 

 

 

[ChuggaBeer]

5 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:

And again, I dont care what he says. Words mean nothing. I look at what hes actually done. 

 

How many picks has he made that havent been needs? Taylor maybe? Any others? 

 

 

This team has been full of needs.  Just because BPA happened to cover a need?????     I will say that outside of RB WSLB RT and LG     Every position is a needed upgrade.  

 

If I'm wrong tell me what other  position is set.  

 

He may reach for LT, edge Rush  and  slightly reach for secondary.     He's not gonna reach for a WR 

 

So what other position will he reach for over BPA?   

[Goatface Killah]

2 minutes ago, ChuggaBeer said:

This team has been full of needs.  Just because BPA happened to cover a need?????     I will say that outside of RB WSLB RT and LG     Every position is a needed upgrade.  

 

If I'm wrong tell me what other  position is set.  

 

He may reach for LT, edge Rush  and  slightly reach for secondary.     He's not gonna reach for a WR 

 

So what other position will he reach for over BPA?   

Yes because all teams have needs. They are losing people in free agency, guys are retiring, guys have injury concerns......even the SB champs have needs. And they always will. Which is the only thing these GMs are truly thinking about. How to make the team better. 

 

How is drafting a guy who isnt gonna play, because he isnt needed, gonna make the team better? Because he was a better player than a guy who wouldve started for you and solidified a weak spot, but plays a less important position? 

 

Also, every single critic of Chris Ballard cites his inability to fill needs like WR, LT and pass rusher........and some of these same people promote BPA and act like you should ignore your needs......I mean HELLO! 

 

Thats why he has to focus on the needs of the team. The team needs to show progress, or he might get fired. And teams dont typically give you 10 years to implement a true BPA strategy and give it time to pay off.

[ChuggaBeer]

6 minutes ago, Goatface Killah said:

Yes because all teams have needs. They are losing people in free agency, guys are retiring, guys have injury concerns......even the SB champs have needs. And they always will. Which is the only thing these GMs are truly thinking about. How to make the team better. 

 

How is drafting a guy who isnt gonna play, because he isnt needed, gonna make the team better? Because he was a better player than a guy who wouldve started for you and solidified a weak spot, but plays a less important position? 

 

Also, every single critic of Chris Ballard cites his inability to fill needs like WR, LT and pass rusher........and some of these same people promote BPA and act like you should ignore your needs......I mean HELLO! 

 

Thats why he has to focus on the needs of the team. The team needs to show progress, or he might get fired. And teams dont typically give you 10 years to implement a true BPA strategy and give it time to pay off.

Fair enough.    You have your opinion I have mine. Nothing wrong with that.   I will say that once the draft is over. I doubt I am angry about any pick 

 

EDIT.  Unless he passes on Cine.   Then I will be sad.   That kid is Bob 2.0

[Four2itus]

Problem with "fill a need" is a clarification of the time frame. Most fans think "fill a need" is for the upcoming season. That is not the same for good G.M.'s

[Jason_]

2 hours ago, jonjon said:

Nope, afraid that's you. BPA means exactly that: the best player available. Period.

 

oh good lord.  Like I said, it's 'Best Player Available' that is ON THAT TEAM'S DRAFT BOARD.  But the team takes need, positional value etc into account when they're creating said draft board.    As I said, that's why you generally won't see a team draft a punter or kicker high.  That's why teams like KC, Cincy, SD etc will NOT draft a QB high.  They won't even have first round QBs on their draft board.  As I said before, you're taking the phrase way too literally.  

 

Not every player is on every team's board for whatever reason...injuries, character concerns etc.  

Quote

 

 That's ridiculous. Again, GMs take many factors into account and try to find the optimal mix of all of them.

 

 

Of course they take those things into consideration...I even said as much.   they do so when they're setting up and arranging the players on their draft board.  

[jonjon]

Again, no. You're simply not getting it. But no point going round and round, so moving on. Believe whatever you like...

[Moosejawcolt]

5 hours ago, sb41champs said:

Ahh - the age old dilemma regarding the NFL Draft.

 

Do you draft:

 

1.  Best available player on the Colts board - regardless of position?

2.  A position of need - regardless of what potential quality NFL player you might be passing up?

 

Justify your choice.

It really depends. We all agree that the Colts need wrs but if a corner is sitting with mid 1st round talent and the reciever is mid or late 2nd round value, you  take the corner.  If theyvare close in terms of grading of course u take the player u need.

[Jason_]

1 hour ago, jonjon said:

Again, no. You're simply not getting it. But no point going round and round, so moving on. Believe whatever you like...

 

funny, I'd have said exactly the same thing to you.  

 

Quote

Nope, afraid that's you. BPA means exactly that: the best player available. Period. Not "best fit for team X based on his talent and their needs and etc etc."

 

Bottom line, BPA means that a GM is going to take the best player that's ON HIS DRAFT BOARD that is still available.  Not every player in the draft is going to be on that draft board.  As an example, Luck was drafted in 2012.   From 2013 until Luck's surprise retirement, Indy simply would not have had highly ranked QB prospects on their draft board because they didn't need a starting QB.  For the next several years, that will be the case for KC, Cincy, SD etc.  The team's needs come into play in how they setup their draft boards.

[Four2itus]

Lol. There is a group of players that are completely off the Colts board. Completely. The means....that a player that the ENTIRE media says is a first rounder falls to the fourth, but a fan says, "Well, they didn't take this guy.....therefore they must be drafting for need".

No. It means according to their board.

[Zoltan]

6 hours ago, stitches said:

The best option is neither... 

 

IMO the best option is what I call Best Value Available... it's similar to BPA, but it includes things like positional value. 

 

My justification is - when drafting you are acquiring a long-term asset so you shouldn't be concerned with short term needs - there is a TON of turnover in the league so needs change all the time - just get the player that you project to give you the best value over the rookie contract+possible extension to that rookie deal. In the long-term IMO this will give you the best results and over time you will creat better overall team. 

 

 

Probably one of the better ways I’ve seen it worded

[ChuggaBeer]

24 minutes ago, Four2itus said:

Lol. There is a group of players that are completely off the Colts board. Completely. The means....that a player that the ENTIRE media says is a first rounder falls to the fourth, but a fan says, "Well, they didn't take this guy.....therefore they must be drafting for need".

No. It means according to their board.

Yes Sir!!!

 

A lot of people try to build a board off of what the media thinks (which is NEED) and it is hardly every what a team sees 

[VikingsFanInChennai]

If there's ever a topic that everyone wants to and tells the same thing over and over but in completely different ways per their understanding and context in their own mind, 

 

This age-old topic takes the cake.